Indian Highways Vol.41 3 Mar 13

8/19/2019 Indian Highways Vol.41 3 Mar 13

1/82


2/82

INDIAN HIGHWAYSA REVIEW OF ROAD AND ROAD TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT

The Indian Roads Congress

E-mail: [email protected]/[email protected]

Founded : December 1934

IRC Website: www.irc.org.inJamnagar House, Shahjahan Road,

New Delhi - 110 011

Tel : Secretary General: +91 (11) 2338 6486

Sectt. : (11) 2338 5395, 2338 7140, 2338 4543, 2338 6274

Fax : +91 (11) 2338 1649

Kama Koti Marg, Sector 6, R.K. Puram

New Delhi - 110 022

Tel : Secretary General : +91 (11) 2618 5303

Sectt. : (11) 2618 5273, 2617 1548, 2671 6778,

2618 5315, 2618 5319, Fax : +91 (11) 2618 3669

No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without prior written permission from the Secretary General.

Edited and Published by Shri Vishnu Shankar Prasad on behalf of the Indian Roads Congress (IRC), New Delhi. The responsibility of the

contents and the opinions expressed in Indian Highways is exclusively of the author/s concerned. IRC and the Editor disclaim responsibility

and liability for any statement or opinion, originality of contents and of any copyright violations by the authors. The opinions expressed in the

papers and contents published in the Indian Highways do not necessarily represent the views of the Editor or IRC.

VOLUME 41 NUMBER 3 MARCH 2013

CONTENTS ISSN 0376-7256

Page

2-5 Editorial

6-9 Meet the New President & Vice-Presidents of the Indian Roads Congress

10 Advertisement Tariff

11 New Developments

Technical Papers

12 Imperative of Risk Management in Highway Projects

Indrasen Sing, Pralhad Kabra and Anand Kulkarni

27 Design of High Embankment Using Red Mud

Sarat Kumar Das, Subrat Kumar Rout and Tapaswini Sahoo

35 Effect of Shape of Aggregate on Pavement Quality Concrete

Kundan Meshram and H.S. Goliya

43 Nanotechnology in Highway Engineering

Y.C. Tewari and R.S. Bharadwaj

49 Comparison Between Coarse Aggregate Shape Factors and Resulting mix Properties Using Conventional and New Universal

Gauge Instruments

Mohamed Ilyas Anjum

55-76 Circular’s Issued by Ministry

77 Tender Notice of NHs Kanpur

78 Tender Notice of NHs Lucknow

79 Tender Notice of NHs Madurai

80 Tender Notice of NHs Chennai

81 Obituary


3/82

2 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013

Dear Readers,

The massive road development programme being witnessed since last few years and may continue for many

more years also demands for adequate attention towards not only quantitative but qualitative availability

of requisite man power to meet the demand of all spectrum of activities of this sector. Therefore, a focused

attention is required to be given to this crucial issue .

Today, the task in front of road engineers & professionals is not as simple as is commonly perceived. They

have to function in a highly restrictive and competitive environment while catering to all issues related to

nancial, administrative and legal aspects in addition to the technical matters. The roads are considered to

be one of the basic facility & amenity and thereby every citizen considers his right and demands for the

same. Similarly, the other sectors of the economy take the availability of the roads as granted. This intricate

paradoxical scenarios of “Cater-all” & “please-all” builds additional pressure on the road sector professionals.

Therefore, the road sector, thereby per-se demands that the sectoral professionals should be exposed and

equipped with the techno-management skills so as to allow him to make potential decisions & sustainable

propositions within the limit of the resources, man, materials and machinery.

Just remember, the quote from Holy Bhagwad Gita:

“While doing your duties let me tell you, never bring in any of the attitudes of the outer self. Anger, hate,

jealousy, attachment, all pertains to the outer self. Be in oneness with your inner self and do all of your duties;

nothing will touch you or pollute you. This living identity with your inner self will give you the attitude of

equanimity. The equanimous view of everthing that you come across whether it is man or material, is the

ultimate goal of life.”

Keeping the above in view, the road sector professionals can become the enablers of economic growth besides

becoming in true sense the force behind empowering the people socially. However, the transformational

potential results of human potential in the road sector are not very easy to comprehend. The human potential

is a complex, composite of instinct, intelligence, personality, knowledge, skills, motivation, attitude and

behaviours besides he is continuously shaped by his genetic inheritance, family, friends, education,

surroundings as well as his personal life experiences. Therefore, to what extent the real human potential can

be utilized gainfully by any sector depends upon the enabling environment prevailing therein. This is equallyapplicable for road sector also.

Everyone knows that Indians constitute about 1/6th of the total world’s population. The unique Indian

characteristics like commitment to inclusive growth, a long term perspective on business objectives and the

much wanted proclivity for the “Jugaad – the improvisional ability to nd workable solutions around seeming

intractable problems” are internationally recognized and respected. However, these strengths are yet to be

adequately be harnessed and channelized in the road sector.

From the Editor’s Desk

WAY FORWARD FOR INVESTING IN HUMAN RESOURCE

IN ROAD SECTOR


4/82

INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013 3

EDITORIAL

Essentially, we will be able to analyze and deliver seamless economic benets to the people of this great

country, if different technologies are effectively harnessed in the road sector i.e. Leveraging technology for

real growth through improvement in efciency of deliverance and effectiveness of infrastructure created;

Deployment of right people with right skills at the right place for optimization of human resource output,

etc.

It is always good to remember that when technologies, services and human intelligence convergence in

radical creative ways, then a new powerful application emerge which transforms the industry and redene

the sector.

As mentioned earlier, the road sector in India is witnessing unprecedented demand and pressure besides

opening of the opportunities for this sector to be one of the most crucial enabler for sustainable economic

growth. The employees, like in any other sector, in the road sector also require continuous up-gradation in

their competencies and for this there is a need to have a proper system in place. The due investment in the

road sector with an aim to bridge the competence gap towards building skill and productive work force to

meet challenges of competition & sustainability in this sector requires a serious approach from all concerned.What we require today is an “out of box” skill enhancement approach not limited to just thinking but with

demonstrative practices.

Employees, as individuals, reect the collective caliber of an organization. When an organization hopes

to achieve its set out goals & objectives, the competence of the employees plays a major role. Therefore,

“competency” provides the basis for investing in them when said in an organizational context. The scientic

approach of competency modeling, measurement and deployment pave the way for continually enhancing

collective capability. This is nothing but a concept of “partnering for progress” in a mutually benecial way.

Whenever any sector faces difcult time, then it is necessary to go for an in-depth introspection. The common

result of sectoral introspections generally points towards the skill gap falling into three main areas :- Critical

thinking, Communication capabilities and Ability to function as an efcient team. Even in the normal

circumstances the organization/sector loses its pace of growth if the sector does not have “critical thinkers”.

The critical thinking is an important requirement for effective problem solving system. It is generally dened

as a type of higher order thinking that questions prevailing assumptions. Adept a logical reasoning, critical

thinkers believe that there is more than one route to a desire outcome and they can leverage this exible

approach for optimal results. Organizations value critical thinkers for what they bring to the table, normally

the ability to change the status-quo, driving change and innovation in the process. The critical thinking as a

collective skill can be organizational building attribute but how many organizations as well as educational

institute provide or consider for the same!

The developed countries have their own system of skill development and harness the human potential for the benets of their respective country’s goals, growth and development. The Japanese organizations have a system

of “Genba” as their strength. It is a “bottom – up” approach and is the site where all important processes takes

place, where people have full power and responsibility for what happens. This approach helps in involving

& associating the workforce right from the grass root level and helps in building dedication and loyalty

towards the organization. But in today’s scenario where the rapid technological changes are transforming

the management approaches the world over, the road sector may become more strong and sustainable if a

combination of “Bottom-up” and “Top-down” approach complementing each other is adopted. This Human

Resource building approach may help in bringing required stability in the profession.


5/82


EDITORIAL

The road sector professionals is not only to manage but also to nd solutions to the various issues right from

the stages of conceptualization & planning stage in regard to land acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental

clearance, environmental mitigation plans, nancial tie-ups, material linkages, technological tie-ups, revenue

collection (toll collection and management”), road safety management, etc. Therefore, comprehensive

employee training programme with an emphasis on application and problem solving to serve as a drive to build the road sector organization on sustainable basis are needed to be given a serious consideration.

In addition the new Techno-Management Technique of “Collaborative Leadership” is very much applicable

for the road sector under the current scenario. It is a “Techno-Managerial” way wherein leaders avail the

synergetic relationship between team members to create a bigger and better organizational structure. It is

a articulated skill of working together, sharing knowledge, ideas and thoughts to achieve a common goal.

It facilitates in creating an inhibition-free atmosphere beside resulting in signicantly improved efciency,

productivity, accountability and competence. Moreover, using simulated scenario and other training modules,

road sector employees can be exposed to the ‘quick thinking techniques’ to think quick & logically in order

to come up with reasonable/ practical solutions within a given time.

It is necessary that each road organization identify the training needs of their employees by carrying out

specic ‘Training Needs Assessment’ (TNA) exercise on regular basis to identify the skill-decit areas to

bridge the same. The training modules should be such that they should create avenues to produce the breed

of innovators and problem-solvers who are not afraid to push the boundaries at work. While working out the

skill development training programme in the road sector, the outcome should also be evaluated on regular

basis to ascertain whether the training imparted have imbibed the skills required to excel in the identied

areas, analytical thinking and logical approach, zeal, persistence and condence in the participants.

The human resource development may not be accomplished without allowing and creating an enabling

framework for research & development. R&D coupled with innovations requires an enabling environment

to spread the benets of development within the reachable reach of all stake-holders. However, researchhas much more to do with independent, unorthodox and creative thinking then with strategic thinking. This

system practiced in some of the developed countries allows a large number of researchers to realize the fruits

of their intellectual labour (which would have been harder to achieve in the country of their birth) and at the

same time benetting the country in which they carried out the research. Today, the need of the hour to make

the Indian road sector vibrant and to allow holistic development of human resource of this sector demands

for an urgent need to create enabling framework for research & development and enabling environment for

innovators and their innovations so that applied research can be promoted and practiced. This may help in

making this sunrise sector “Techno – Economically” sustainable.

As mentioned earlier, we are witnessing the World’s biggest road sector initiatives. In order to ensure the

resounding success and sustainability of results of this mega initiative, it is necessary that not only dueinvestment is earmarked for Skill-enhancement , Skill- development, Skill- demonstration and Skill-

imparting programme but requisite enabling & supporting infrastructure is also required to be put in place.

The data of the employees imparted skill-enhancement/ development trainings should be web-based, so

that it may become accessible to all concerned for utilization of their attained expertise. It also needs to be

evaluated whether all the employees working in the organization are deputed for the trainings on regular

basis without any discrimination & prejudice. Till this is practiced in true spirit, the skill – enhancement &

development in road sector or any sector may remain loop-sided. For example, the Contract Management is


6/82


EDITORIAL

an intricate ‘Technical–Art’. The road sector professional should be exposed to the same so that he may be

able to differentiate between ‘Administering the Contract’ from ‘Management of Contract’ and ‘Managing

the Management of Contract’. Proper skill development trainings may help in better project formulations and

handling especially PPP projects, thereby reducing the scope of contractual disputes and additional claims.

Generally the Capacity building & training activity is considered a low priority as well as an incidental activity

rather than a focused activity. However, little thought is given to the fact that Trained & skilled employees can

make difference to the pattern of growth, development, dynamism & prospects of an organization. The crucial

aspect that employees signicantly contribute to the reputation of an organization as well as to the country is

generally given a miss. This aspect plays in vital role in making a organization globally competitive as well. If

road sector organizations desire to spread their reach globally in an effective way then they may require making

a sincere effort towards the capacity/skill building exercise. The government, PSU, educational institutes and

private sector organizations should join their efforts and inter-link their competencies & capabilities in the

eld of capacity building with an aim to cover all the professionals & work force every 5 years period. Public-

Private-Partnership concept in capacity building in road sector is very much essential in today scenario, which

may be not only an economical proposition to all but will create a win-win situation in this activity. The sectorshould also consider instituting the awards for efciency & innovations.

The skill-building exercise should be separated from the routine working & functioning of the road sector

organization to allow them a space to function in a holistic manner. They may also cater to inter-linkages

with the educational & research institutions so that young talents may be tapped at the initial stages

itself. This may help in creating internationally competitive road sector professionals. This grooming of

young professionals to become mature contributors to the growth of road sector is very much needed.

Towards the same it may not be out of the place to mention that for the rst time , IRC has allowed the

M.Tech and Research students to become regular members of IRC to tap their potential to contribute

to growth/development in the road sector as well as to enhance their employability. In the recently held

73rd IRC Annual Session at Coimbatore, a novel initiative was taken by providing opportunity to PG Students/

Researchers to show-case their innovations/research work on IRC platform.

The organizations normally get much higher return on the investment made by them in human resource

development. Leaving aside the other benets like large percentage of employee retention, increased

productivity, image building, etc. the nancial return to the organizations are manifold and the same is also

applicable for the government sector as well , keeping in view that with higher productivity & efciency the

deliverance of the government projects & new initiatives also get improves, benetting the public at large

as well as nation as a whole. Therefore. Earmarked investment in the capacity building/skill enhancement/

skill development should be made an essential & regular feature covering all stake-holders and entire-work

force.

“The end product of education should be a free, creative mind, who can battle against historical circumstances and

adversaries of nature”.

(Quote of Dr. S. Radhakrishnan)

Place: New Delhi Vishnu Shankar Prasad

Dated: 21st Feb 2013 Secretary General


7/82


MEET THE NEW PRESIDENT OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS

SHRI C. KANDASAMY

Director General (Road Development) &

Special Secretary to the Govt. of India

Shri C. Kandasamy joined Central Engineering Service (Roads) of Government of India in 1976 and have

held various positions in the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways as well as in the National Highways

Authority of India.

He was on deputation with National Highways Authority of India as General Manager and was associated

with Phase-I of NHDP (Golden Quadrilateral). As Chief General Manager Shri Kandasamy was involved in

Phase –II of NHDP (North South & East West Corridors). He took most of the projects under his jurisdiction

in North-South corridor through the BOT model. As Member (Technical), NHAI, he was incharge of Phase III

(BOT) of NHDP projects. In his long and illustrious career spanning over 35 years, Shri Kandasamy has been

involved in all aspects of development of National Highways including implementation of NHDP.

Shri C. Kandasamy held various positions in the Ministry and elevated to the post of Director General

(Road Development) and Special Secretary in December 2011.

Shri C. Kandasamy is a Life Member of the Indian Roads Congress. He is an eminent engineer of repute

and is closely associated with Indian Roads Congress. He is Convenor of Apex Committees, Highways

Specications & Standards, Bridges Specications & Standards and General Specications & Standards of

IRC. Besides, he is also instrumental in preparation of IRC Codes, Specications, Manuals etc.

Shri C. Kandasamy has been elected as President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session

held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.


8/82


MEET THE IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS

Born on 22nd July 1957, Shri P.N. Jain graduated in

Civil Engineering from L.D. College of Engineering,

Ahmedabad in the year 1979 with distinction. He

qualied the Direct Recruit Examination conducted

by the Gujarat Public Service Commission and

joined the Roads & Buildings Department, Govt.

of Gujarat as Executive Engineer in 1980. Shri Jain

was promoted as Superintending Engineer and Chief

Engineer in the years 1990 and 1997 respectively.

He has been involved in execution of various works,

such as, Construction and Maintenance works

of State Highways, Major District Roads, Other

District Roads including Major and Minor Bridges

of Gandhinagar, Mehsana, Banaskantha and Kutch

Districts including Capital City Gandhinagar. He

also worked as Secretary, Gujarat Slum ClearanceBoard, Ahmedabad especially in various schemes

related to slum dwellers of low, medium and high

income group of housing projects in different cities/

towns of Gujarat State.

As Chief Engineer (Quality Control) and

Addl. Secretary, he inspected many on-going

projects related to Roads, Bridges & Buildings.

Shri Jain worked as Technical Advisor to Vigilance

Commissioner in the capacity of Chief Engineer

& Addl. Secretary for more than 4 years. He alsoworked as Chief Engineer (Capital Projects) and

Additional Secretary in charge of various works

of Construction & Maintenance of Roads, Bridges

& Buildings etc. of Ahmedabad & Gandhinagar.

Shri Jain has also worked as Arbitrator for disputed

cases of Government & Contractors.

SHRI P.N. JAIN

As Chief Engineer & Director, Staff Traning College,

Roads & Buildings Department, Gandhinagar, he was

responsible for providing Departmental and Special

Training to Inservice Engineers of Roads & Buildings

Department, Irrigation Department of Government ofGujarat of various cadres in collaboration with Experts

of National and International Highways Institutes,

Project Management Institutes, such as, UTiM-

Malaysia, NITHE-New Delhi, CRRI-New Delhi,

NICMAR-Pune, GIDB-Gandhinagar, IEI (GSC) –

Ahmedabad, Nirma University, GICEA-Ahmedabad

and LD Engineeing College-Ahmedabad.

Shri Jain is presently working as Chief Engineer

(NH) & Additional Secretary, R&B Department,

Gandhinagar looking after the construction and

maintenance of National Highways of Gujarat

and other important projects, such as, Railway

Over Bridges, Railway Under Bridges on

Annuity-BOT & CRF works. Shri P.N. Jain is Life

Member of various other Professional Bodies like,

Indian Buildings Congress, Institution of Engineers

(India), Indian Concrete Institute, Institution of

Indian Public Administration, Gujarat Institute

of Civil Engineers & Architecture and ComputerSociety of India-Gujarat Chapter.

Shri P.N. Jain was elected as President of the Indian

Roads Congress during its 72nd Annual Session held

at Lucknow (U.P.) in November, 2011 and he is

Immediate Past President and member of Executive

Committee for the year 2013.


9/82


MEET THE NEW VICE-PRESIDENTS OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS

SHRI SANDEEP B. VASAVA

Shri Sandeep B. Vasava did B.E. (Civil) with distinction

from M.S. University, Baroda in 1989. In 1990

Shri Vasava passed the Gujarat Public Service Commission

Examination topping the list. In 1991, he joined the Road &

Building Department, Government of Gujarat as AssistantExecutive Engineer. He was promoted as Executive

Engineer in the year 1995 and posted in the National

Highways Division, Baroda. In 1999, Shri Vasava was

promoted as Superintending Engineer, National Highway

Circle, Baroda. In this capacity, he has handled major

BOT Project of bridges across river Mahi and Narmada

on National Highway No. 8.

In 2002, he was promoted as Chief Engineer and posted

as Managing Director, Gujarat State Road Development

Corporation. In 2006, Shri S.B. Vasava was elevated to the post of Chief Engineer & Additional Secretary (National

Highways).

At present, he is working as Chief Engineer (P) and

Additional Secretary and Chief Executive Ofcer of

GSRRDA. Shri Vasava is involved in Construction and

Maintenance of Rural Roads and Implementation of

PMGSY scheme of Government of India. He has also

served on various Committees of Government of Gujarat.

He was also the Member Secretary for the Sub Group of

State Roads for Formulation of 11th

and 12th

Five YearPlan for Planning Commission, Government of India. He

is also Council Member of the Institution of Engineers.

Shri Sandeep B. Vasava has been elected as Vice-President

of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session

held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.

SHRI KIRAN KUMAR YALLAPPA MAHINDRAKAR, VSM

Shri Kiran Kumar Yallappa Mahindrakar graduated in Civil

Engineering from BVB College of Engineering & Technology,

Hubli in 1976. After graduation, he was involved as Site

Engineer/Resident Engineer in construction of one mile long

Malaprabha Right Bank Canal Aqueduct over Bennihalla River

and completed 72 Nos of well foundations in black cotton soil

and erected substructures from 1976 to 1979. Shri Mahindrakar

joined as Assistant Executive Engineer as rst batch of Border

Roads Engineering Services in BRDB/MoRTH in 1979 through

Combined Engineering Services Examination of UPSC. He was

involved in road construction in far ung areas of North East

devoid of basic amenities and having poor road communication.

He showed his technical competence in planning & construction

of bridges on NH-44. Due to his excellent result oriented attitude

he was selected for Masters in Highways (Transport Engineering)

from University of Roorkee and passed out with Gold Medal

in 1986.

Shri Mahindrakar was promoted as Executive Engineer in

1992 and in this capacity he was responsible for construction,maintenance of roads, bridges and causeways, widening of roads

in insurgency infested region in the States of Nagaland and

then in Manipur. He was promoted as Superintending Engineer

in 1997.As Superintending Engineer he was responsible for

construction of roads of strategic importance along the border in

the States of Arunachal Pradesh and J&K.

Shri Mahindrakar was promoted as Chief Engineer in 2003. In

this capacity, he was responsible of road construction including

widening of strategically important roads and National Highways

in the States of Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh.

For his exemplary services, he was awarded Chief of Army Staff

Commendation Card in 1986 and for his meritorious serviceshe was awarded by His Excellency the President of India with

VISHISHT SEVA MEDAL during Republic Day 2006.

Presently, he is working as Dy. Director General (Pers) looking

after Human Resources Department called Pers Dte in HQ

DGBR, New Delhi.

Shri Kiran Kumar Yallappa Mahindrakar has been elected as

Vice-President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73 rd Annual

Session held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.


10/82


MEET THE NEW VICE-PRESIDENTS OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS

SHRI A. SAMUEL EBENEZER JEBARAJAN

Shri A. Samuel Ebenezer Jebarajan completed his B.E. (Civil

Engg) from Govt. College of Engineering, Salem, Tamil Nadu

in 1978.

Shri Jebarajan started his Engineering carrier in Bharat Heavy

Electricals Ltd., Trichy and was involved in execution of

Multi-storied Buildings during 1978-79. He joined as Assistant

Engineer in Corporation of Chennai and designed variousstorm water drains for Chennai during 1979-80. Then in 1980,

he joined the Highways & Rural Works Department of Tamil

Nadu and executed Bridge works, Rural Roads and National

Highway Projects in Trichy and Salem Circle areas. He has put

in exemplary service in Rural Development Wing and executed

infrastructure projects, Road & Bridge works and various

housing projects.

He has executed Bridges in Chennai, across Coovam River and

Major Bridge works across Kaveri River near Madurai. He held

various positions in the divisions of Quality Control, execution

of Major Ring Roads, Bridge works including maintenance of

roads. He has put in four years of service under the aegis of

Highways Research Station, Chennai in Concrete lab and as

Deputy Director (Soils) and implemented new technologies,

such as, usage of copper slag for GSB and pavement designs

for distressed highways and other trafc studies for RITES and

other researches in Trafc & Soils. He completed his M.Sc (I.T)

from the Alagappa University by distance education.

As Superintending Engineer (H) Shri Jebarajan has monitored

execution of major Bridge and Road works in South Tamil Nadu.

When he was promoted as Chief Engineer (H) he took charge

as the Chief Engineer (H), Planning, Design & Investigation,

Chennai during 2011-12 and monitored design of major bridges

and grade separators.

Shri Jebarajan is presently working as Chief Engineer (H),

Metro monitoring the execution of major Grade Separators, Link

Roads and other prestigious projects in Chennai Metropolitan

area under State Fund and World Bank Projects. His earnest

participations in various training programs under NITHE,

New Delhi, international organizations such as IRF at New Delhi

and IABSE at Chennai and at Venice, Italy has strengthened

his technical ability besides the knowledge of Primavera for

planning.

Shri A. Samuel Ebenezer Jebarajan has been elected as Vice-

President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73 rd Annual

Session held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.

SHRI SWATANTRA KUMAR

Shri Swatantra Kumar graduated in Civil Engineering from

Malviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur, Rajasthan

in 1996. He has also done Post Graduation (MBA–Marketing)

from All India Management Association, New Delhi in the

year 2000.

Shri Swatantra Kumar has started his career with Renaissance

Aqua Sports Pvt. Ltd. New Delhi in the year 1996 as a Site

Engineer and was involved in design and construction of

Swimming pools and health club of different capacities.

In the year 1997, he joined Aimil Ltd. as Engineer, Business

Development for North India. Aimil is a market leader addressing

instrumentation needs of the nation for the last 8 decades.

Aggressively involved in providing total instrumentation

solution to the wide range of industries like Roads, Buildings,

Education, Thermal power, Hydro Power, Cement etc. He was

also actively involved in getting accreditation of NABL and ISO

for his Company.

Shri Swatantra Kumar was promoted as Business Managerin 2005 and in this capacity he was responsible for business

development of imported products of leading manufacturers

from U.S.A. and Europe in frontier areas of Instrumentation.

During this period, he was also responsible for promoting NDT

(Non- Destructive Testing instrument ) to different sectors like

DMRC, IITs, NITs, CPWD, PWD , Irrigation Department etc.

Shri Swatantra Kumar currently working as Asstt. General

Manager at M/s. Aimil Ltd. New Delhi, heads the Delhi

Regional Team and he is instrumental in promoting state-of-art

instrumentation across the country and also involved in bringing

about various system improvements within the company. He is

also responsible for providing technical support to Aimil users

in India and neighboring countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Srilanka,Bangladesh etc.

He has been serving IRC in the capacity of Council Member for

the last 5 years. He has been an active member of Instrumentation

Committee (G-5) of the Indian Roads Congress.

Shri Swatantra Kumar has been elected as Vice-President of the

Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session held at

Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.


11/82

ADVERTISEMENT TARIFF

INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS, NEW DELHI

ADVERTISEMENT TARIFF FOR “INDIAN HIGHWAYS” - A MONTHLY MAGAZINE

Position of page Rates for

regular issue

(b/w)per page

Rates for

Annual /Special

Number (b/w)per page

Rates for

regular issue

(4-Color)per page

Rates for Annual/

Special Number

(4-Color) perpage

Annual Charges for

12 issues i.e. after

10% discount

Outside Back Cover - - Rs.24,000/- Rs.30,000/- Rs.2,59,200/-

Inside Front/ Inside Back Covers - - Rs.23,000/- Rs.29,000/- Rs.2,48,400/-

Full page Rs.7000/- Rs.8000/- Rs.20,000/- Rs.25,000/- Rs.75,600/- (b/w)

Rs.2,16,000/- (color)

Half page Rs.4000/- Rs.4500/- Rs.12000/- Rs.15000/- Rs.43,200/- (b/w)

Rs.1,29,600/- (color)

Quarter page Rs.2500/- Rs.3000/- - - Rs.27,000/-

Tender Notice Rs.9,000/- Rs.9,000/- - - -

ADVERTISEMENT TARIFF FOR “JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS” A QUARTERLY JOURNAL

Position of page Rates per page (b/w) Rates per page

(4-Color)

Annual Charges for

4 issues i.e. after 10% discount

Outside Back Cover - Rs.24,000/- Rs.86,400/-

Inside Front/ Inside Back Covers - Rs.23,000/- Rs.82,800/-

Full page Rs.7000/- Rs.20,000/- Rs.25,200/- (b/w)

Rs.72,000/- (color)

Half page Rs.4000/- Rs.12000/- Rs.14,400/- (b/w)

Rs.43,200/- (color)

MECHANICAL DATA Advertisement print size 24 cm x 19 cm for full page & Tender Notice 11.5 cm x 19 cm for half page

11.5 cm x 7.5 cm for quarter page

TERMS & CONDITIONS

1. 10 per cent Agency commission will be allowed to Advertising Agents only on the advertisements received through them.2. 10 per cent discount will be allowed to advertisers if space is booked for all the 12 issues of Indian Highways or 4 issue of Journal

of the Indian Roads Congress.3. No discount will be allowed for advertisements received directly for less than 12 issues in the case of Indian Highways and

4 issues in case of Journal of the Indian Roads Congress.4. Only one voucher copy of the issue will be supplied free to an Advertiser for each advertisement. A copy of the printed

advertisement will be supplied to Agents.5. All payments are to be made in advance. This is applicable to advertising agents also. Demand Drafts/Cheques may be drawn in

favour of the Secretary General, Indian Roads Congress, New Delhi.6. Indian Highways is printed one month in advance as such all materials received by the 18th of the preceding month would be

included in the issue to which it pertains.

Release orders may be sent to:

D. Sam Singh

Under Secretary,

Indian Roads Congress,

Kama Koti Marg, Sector-6, R.K. Puram,

New Delhi – 110 022

Tel: +91 11 2618 5315,19/Extn. 203, 2618 5273

E-mail: [email protected]



12/82


NEW DEVELOPMENTS

Highways Research Station, Chennai has been accredited with the ISO-9001-2008 Certication. The Salient Features

and facilities available with them as informed by HRS are as under:

Exclusive Training Facility available for Highway Engineers

Well Equipped Library with Rare Publications, Technical Journals

Research Activities on Highway Engineering using latest Techniques, Sophisticated Equipments

Eight Regional Laboratories with Sophisticated Equipments

For more details please Contact Shri E.L. Satyamoorthi, Chief Engineer (H), QA&R, Highways Research Station,Chennai – 25, Ph No: 044- 22354851, Fax No: 044- 22354852, Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

The Institution of Engineers (India), Roorkee Local Centre will be organizing a Workshop on “Ground Improvement

Techniques for Difcult Ground Conditions” on 16th April 2013 at IIT Roorkee. Noted speakers from IIT Roorkee

and Ground Improvement Industry are going to deliver expert lectures. For registration please contact Dr. Satyendra

Mittal, (Convenor, Workshop), Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Uttarakhand,

Tele. + 91 11 01332-285837, Mobile + 91 9760014237, 9412074237; E-mail: [email protected].

CONCRETE LABORATORY

Key Features

Testing of Concrete Materials Mix Design

Testing of Steel

Destructive & Non DestructiveTesting

Condition Assessment of Bridges.

Facilities

Universal Testing Machine

Compression Testing Machine

PUNDIT/Ultrasonic test

Rebound Hammer

Half Cell Potentiometer

Load Testing facility for Bridges

Heavy Duty Test Floor

SOILS LABORATORY

Key Features

Pavement Design

Road Rehabilitation studies

Ground Improvement Techniques

Pavement Materials Testing

Sub Soil Exploration Pile Load Tests

Design mixes

Structural Evaluation

Facilities

Digital CBR

Digital Consolidation Apparatus

Digital LVDT for pile load testing

Geogauge

Electrical Density Gauge

TRAFFIC LABORATORY

Key Features Functional Evaluation

Axle Load Survey Travel Time Study

Junction Improvement Study

Surface Conditioning Assessment Various studies to reduce Accidents Traffic Improvement Techniques

Facilities

Portable Axle Weigh Pad

Hand held Roughometer Speed Meter

ROMDAS

Advanced Data Collection Equipment

BITUMEN LABORATORY

Key Features

Tests on Bitumen & Aggregate

Mix Design for Pavements

Evaluation of value added products –Modified Bitumen, Modified BitumenEmulsion

Failure Studies Bituminous Mix Characterisation

Facilities

Rotational Viscometer

Dynamic Shear Rheometer

Universal Testing Machine – HYD25-II

Beam Fatigue Apparatus

Gyratory Compactor

Laboratory Model Circular Test Track.


13/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


ABSTRACT

Project risk is the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain

occurrences adversely affecting project objectives. Project risk

management is the art and science of identifying, assessing and

responding to project risk throughout the life of a project and in

the best interests of its objectives.

The constant goal of project risk management should be to move

uncertainty away from risk and towards opportunity. The goals

of risk management, therefore, are to identify project risks and to

develop strategies, which either reduce them or attempt to avoid

them.

An infrastructure development is more prone to risks than

ordinary industrial projects. Risks consequently, have the ability

to adversely affect the implementation of a highway project.

A successful highway project development and project nance

transaction is therefore, the suitable identication, allocation and

management of risks.

The successful implementation of a project, it is essential that

person involved in its Implementation whether engineers, lawyers,

legislators, executives bankers or civil servants be sensitive to the

risk-involved in the project and formulate most suitable structure

for the management of such risks. If the persons involved in the

implementation of a project are able to identify the risks regarding

a proposed project and the means of its adequate allocation andreddressal or better more sensitive to the necessity of their adequate

mitigation, it would go a long way in enabling the implementation

of highway projects.

1 INTRODUCTION

Risks are nothing more than the variables or

circumstances associated with the implementation of

a specic project that has the potential to adversely

affect the development of a project, Risks include

circumstances or situation, the existence or occurrenceof which, will in all reasonable foresight, result in an

adverse impact on any aspect of the implementation

of the project.

IMPERATIVE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN HIGHWAY PROJECTS

DR . I NDRASEN SINGH* PRALHAD K ABRA** AND A NAND K ULKARNI**

In projects management terms the most serious effects

of risk can be summarised as follows:

a) Failure to keep within the cost estimate

b) Failure to achieve the required completion date

c) Failure to achieve the required quality and

operation requirements

In highway construction projects risks are related to

various aspects such as the contractor’s ability, design,technology, political and socio-economic environment

etc. Moreover the impact of the risk varies from project

to project depending upon the size of the project (its

physical size, nancial value, resources involved),

the level of the novelty involved in the projects, the

level of involvement of the number of agencies and

the complexity of the projects.

Risk management is the process of recognising risk,

assessing it and managing it.

The rst and the most important step in attempting to

deal with exposure to risk is to identify them which

is called Risk identication. Many decision makers

believe that the principal benets of risk management

come from the identication rather than the analysis

stage

The tools and techniques for risk identication

include documentation reviews, information gathering

methods, checklists, assumption and SWOT ( Strength,

Weakness, Opportunities and Threat) analysis, and

any appropriate diagramming techniques.

* Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab,

E-mail: [email protected]

** Former PGP: ACM Students, NICMAR Goa.


14/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


Structural reviews and methods of team participation,

through brainstorming etc, and the use of checklists,

owcharts, cause and effect diagrams, etc. to help

identify risks are the core of this transformation step.

The outputs include the identication of all risks,

what are likely to be the conditions under which they

will occur, and if the risk identication process has

identied further investigation of risk related matters

in other knowledge areas ( scope, time, cost, etc).

Where it is true that most projects contain a number of

reasonably standard and recognisable risk situations,

each new project requires careful and individual

consideration.

2 RISK IDENTIFICATION PHASE

In the construction of any project, risk identication is

done on the basis of:

a) Experience with similar projects

b) Depth of knowledge and

c) Unique project environment

The study of risk of the project in terms of the total

cost of the project has been divided under four cost

centers that are:

a) Technical

b) Financial

c) Socio-political

d) Statutory

3 RISK IDENTIFICATION PROCESS

The process of risk identication for any construction

project involves two steps:

a) Project Review

b) Determination of Scope

3.1 Project Review

Project review is carried for all construction projects

before implementation. With respect to the case study

of project review involves:

a) Estimation of risks as well as their absolute

parameters

b) It calls for technical and nancial scrutiny of

proposal and assessing the degree of each risk

at each project phase.

c) It establishes the conditions that make the

project workable with environment

d) It must also identify and assess the other

hidden factors that are elements, situations orcircumstances that inuence the project but that

can be unknown in the beginning or imply a

risk to the project.

e) Project review is a continuous process dening

the critical parameters, which need to be

controlled and monitored throughout the project

life cycle analysis.

3.2 Determination of Scope of the Project

Collection of data regarding various risks inuencing

the project is now assessed in terms of degree of impact

thus dening the scope of the project. Experience on

past projects is a major source of risk impact.

Three major sources of experience can be summarized

as follows:

a) Corporate

This is a knowledge gained in the previous

projects, which is dispersed throughout theorganisation. The information may be stored

as personnel memories, diverse reports or as

database that compares plans and outcomes.

b) Project Team

This is sample of the corporate experience

possessed by the individuals within the

particular project team. Often such knowledge


15/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


is very relevant although it might be limited

and possibly biased.

c) External

May be other projects from outside world fromwhich relevant lessons could be learnt.

4 RISKS IN PROJECTS

Risks in projects are many and varied. The

identication, assessment and valuation of risks are

difcult and indispensable tasks in the analysis of

bids and contracts. Depending upon their nature, risks

can be categorised as technology risk, design and

latent defect risk, completion risk, cost overrun risk,

trafc revenue risk, operation risk, demand risk, debt

servicing risk, legal risk, political risk, partnering risk,

regulatory risk, nancial risk, environmental risk and

physical risk. These risks can be dealt by a number

of ways. They may be priced in the bid, insured, or

assumed by the contractor, the owner or both.

4.1 Check List for Projects

Long term contractual relationships inevitably involve

risk. Careful design of contracts and regulatoryarrangements can help both reduce the level of risks

and ensure that any remaining risks fall on the party

that is capable enough to manage them. These issues

are taken up in more detail and all the key risks are

incorporated in the form of checklist.

i) Who is responsible for construction risk?

* Who is responsible for delays in

construction and higher than expected

construction costs?

* What is the scope of the construction

work and of the specications for project

infrastructure? Is there an annex for this

information?

* What is the mechanism for changing the

specications?

* What warranties will be provided relating

to the construction?

* What completion and testing procedures

will be used?

* What is the timetable for construction?

* Are their restrictions on subcontracting

with third parties for nancing or

construction?

* Who will be responsible for site surveys,

ground and geotechnical investigations.

Utility surveys, land issues and

environmental surveys?

* Who will be the project manager?

* What are the development risk?

* Who will nance construction cost

overruns, and what assurances will

lenders have that the funds will be

available when required?

* Are their joint and several completion

liabilities amongst the construction

contractors, equipment suppliers and

subcontractors?

* Who will monitor the construction,

approve the contractor invoices, and

provide commissioning and completion

certicates?

* Will planning approvals be required?

Who is responsible for obtaining planning

approvals and permits?

* Will the construction contract include

contractor incentives?

* What percentage of the total project

value will be required to secure with a

performance bond?

* What are the obligations and

responsibilities relating to capital

expenditure for major water and sewerage

facilities?


16/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


ii) What are the political risks?

* How stable is the country?

* Will export credit agencies give

guarantees against political risk? * Is insurance available?

iii) What are the revenue risks?

* How secure is the cash ow?

* Willingness by users to pay for facility?

* If the government provides support for

the project. What form will that support

take?

* Minimum revenue guarantees orundertakings.

* Standby equity or subordinated debt to

meet revenue shortfalls.

* Tax privileges

* Duty exemptions for imports of capital

equipment.

* Assurances on the liability of foreign

exchange and the exchange rate with

foreign currencies relevant to the project,free transfer of funds or interest rate

guarantees.

* Capital grants and loans. Lines of credit,

or letters of credit.

* What are the legal and administrative

mechanisms required, for the government

to provide this additional support?

* Will the government provide a guarantee

for a minimum amount of new works per year, including any additional

government revenue sources required to

complete these works?

* Who will be responsible for paying

penalties for noncompliance with

environmental regulations in the event

of deterioration? How are penalties to be

determined? What are the payment terms?

Is there a grace period for payment?

Under what conditions may the regulator

waive or allow a delay in payment?

* Will the developer maintain segregated

debt service accounts for principal and

interest payments?

* What type of sponsor guarantee will

the arrangement require a construction

completion guarantee, performance

guarantee, debt service guarantee for

senior bonds or loans, shareholder loan

guarantee?

iv) What are the regulatory risks? * Is there an independent regulator?

* What limits are placed on the regulator’s

discretion?

* What are the procedures for appealing

regulatory decisions?

* What compensation or cost pass through

arrangements are there to safeguard

the developer from shifts in regulatory

ground rules?

4.2 Risk Analysis & the Simulation Approach

Risk analysis is essentially method of dealing with the

problem of uncertainty. Uncertainty usually affects

most of the variables that one combines to obtain

analysis of cost estimates, an economic rate of return

or net present value, analysis of nancial return, or any

of the other indicators that may be used to evaluate

feasibility report. Sometimes one deal with this

uncertainty by combining values for all input variables,chosen in such a way that they yield a conservative

estimate for the result of the analysis. In other cases

one may select the best estimate value, that is, the

value that one thinks most likely to be achieved. Both

these solutions imply a decision: rstly, to look at the

project with a conservative eye, secondly, to disregard

the consequences of any variations around the best

estimate value. Both can lead to biased decisions.


17/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


For example, if one combines only conservative

estimates of variables, nal result is likely to be “over

conservative”. On the other hand by using only best

estimate values one fails to take into account the other

values of the variables that might result in substantialvariations in the estimates. Thus biasing ones decision

on a single value of the decision variable one may by

taking more risk than one intend to. The purpose of

risk analysis is to eliminate the need for restricting

one’s judgement to a single optimistic, pessimistic or

“best” evaluation by carrying throughout the analysis

a complete judgement on the possible range of each

variable and on the likelihood of each value within this

range. At each step of the analysis these judgements are

combined at the same time as the variables themselves

are combined. As a result the product of the analysis

is not just a single value of the decision variable but a

judgement on the possible range the decision variable

around this value, and a judgement on the likelihood

of each value in range.

These judgements take the form of probability

distribution. That is to say each possible value of each

variable is associated with a number between 0 and 1,

such that for each variable the sum of all these numbers

or probabilities is equal to 1. These probabilities,which are called subjective probabilities because

they present some degree of subjective judgement,

follow all rules or traditional probability theory. From

a mathematical point of view risk analysis therefore

consists of aggregating probabilities.

The idea underlying the Monte Carlo technique is

simple. When we say that a project has a 30 percent

chance of earning a 10 percent return, we mean that if

we had a large number of similar projects we would

accept about 30 percent of them to earn a 10 percent

return. Conversely, if we had a great number of projects

and if 30 percent of them earn a 10 percent return, we

could say that the probability of a 10 percent return is

30 percent. Hence the simplest application of the Monte

Carlo technique is to build a great number of projects

with the characteristics of one we are interested in and

see how many of them earn a 10 percent, 15 percent,

20 percent, etc. In practice, the value of each of the

uncertain variables is chosen by random selection,

and the rate of return or some other decision variable

is computed for the project dened by these values.

The process is repeated many times and the resultsare statistically analyzed. The only difculty is in

making sure that the distribution of the values of each

of the input variables as it emerges from the random

selection is consistent with the distribution for that

variable chosen for the analysis.

5 EVALUATION OF RISK

Cooke and Slack (1984) investigated the process

of evaluation of risks. According to them, the risk

inherent in any of the decision option can be a result

of the decision maker’s inability to predict or estimate

the outcomes or the internal effects of the decision

options within the organisation or the environmental

conditions, prevailing after the decision. The range of

possible outcomes conveniently describes whatever

the source of risk is.

There are many methods of evaluation of risk from

the most simple probability concepts to the most

complex utility functions and expert system. Probablythe earliest industrial use of risk methods was with

PERT/RISK, which originally referred to the variation

of estimates of the activity duration, and assuming

their independence, was used to calculate the probable

variations of duration. For instance, Corporate at

use the various probability of interdependence as

exemplied by network analysis can be overcome by

simulation.

5.1 Probability Concepts

The likelihood of something happening is usually

quantied either as a probability gure or as asset of

odds. The various methods based on this concept are:

a) The Classical Method

b) The Relative Frequency Method

c) The Subjective Method


18/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


d) The Bayesian Decision Method

5.1.1 The Classical Method

It is the oldest and the simplest approach. In this

theory, the probability is based on equal chances of

events happening.

5.1.2 The Relative Frequency Method

If the event is something which is easily repeatable or

occurs frequently of it’s own across. The likelihood of

the event occurring may be deducted by examining its

previous history. This method of deriving probabilities

is called the relative frequency method.

Both of the above methods can only be used to forecast

events that are repeatable or repealing. But many

management decisions involve assessing the chance of

something happening which has not happened before

and possible will not happen again i.e. risk event.

5.1.3 The Subjective Method

This method of probability is based on subjective

judgements of experts in the eld no matter how

soundly it is based on their experiences. Especially for

risk analysis, most of the information will be qualied

in the form of subjective data only and such methods

become essential to quantify the risks.

5.2 The Bayesian Theory

This theory was evolved by the British mathematician

Thomas Bayes (1763) involving the estimation of

unknown probabilities and making decisions on the

basis of new (sample) information. The Bayesian

approach employs both personal judgement andempirical evidence and it has been used in the

modeling of the probable activity duration overruns in

the Fuzzy set model.

5.3 Decision Matrix

A decision matrix is a method of modeling straight

forward decisions under uncertainty in such a way

as to make explicit the options open to the decision

maker, the state of the nature pertinent to the decision

and the decision rule used to choose between the

options.

In fact a number of decision rules have been commonly

put forward as being helpful in understanding the

nature of the decision. The four decision rules are:

a) The Optimistic Decision Rule

b) The Pessimistic Decision Rule

c) The Regret Decision Rule

d) The Expected Value Decision Rule

5.3.1 The Optimistic Decision Rule

This approach to select the preferred option is to

consider all possible circumstances and choose option

that yields the best possible outcome. If dealing with

costs, this rule sometimes called as the minimum cost

rule and if dealing with revenues it is called as the

maximum revenue rule.

5.3.2 The Pessimistic Decision Rule

A decision maker who took the very optimisticview to the once described above would follow the

reverse procedure in this case. Each option would be

examined and the worst possible outcome for that

option identied. That option would be selected which

provides the best of the worst outcomes.

5.3.3 The Regret Decision Rule

This is based on a deceptively simple but extremely

useful question i.e. “If one decides on one particular

option then with lined sight how much would he regretnot having chosen what turns out to be the best option

for a particular set of circumstances?”

Disadvantages of Regret Decision Rule

If the alternative chosen is the one that gives the

least cause for regret when compared with another

alternative, then the degree of regret will depend on


19/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


the other options considered. This can cause logical

inconsistency.

5.3.4 The Expected Value Decision Rule

All the above three-decision rule do not consider the

potentially most useful factors within any management

decisions. This is the expert’s estimate of the likelihood

of a particular decision occurring. The principle of

expectation “weights” each outcome by the likelihood

of its occurring. The expected values are merely an

indication of the worth of each option.

5.4 Decision Trees

One limitation of the decision model is the simplisticways in which it treats the option open to the manager.

Many management decision in reality are a series of

reality sequential decisions, where choices made at

one point in time can change the probability of their

decision happening or alter their consequences. The

decision tree format enable sequential decisions to be

represented and the consequences of future decision

to be treated back of assess their inuences on the

present decisions. In fact, a decision matrix can be

represented as a decision tree.

5.5 Risk Simulation

Risk simulation is a technique that allows a more

sophisticated approach to modeling the uncontrollable

factors that inuence the outcome of the decision. By

making continuous probability estimates for each

controllable factor the technique produces decision

outcomes that are also continuous probability

functions. This gives a much clearer picture of the

spread of outcomes possible than the decision tree

model that produces single-gure expected values.

This technique that was originally described by Hertz

can be briey summarized as follows:

i) Choose the uncontrollable exogenous variables

(risk factors), which are considered to have a

signicant bearing on the decision.

ii) For each variable, estimate the probability

distribution, which most clearly reects the

decision maker’s degree of belief as to the

likelihood of the variable taking any value.

iii) Choose the endogenous variable, the measure

of outcome, which will be used to evaluate

the options, for example, the probable mean

distribution.

iv) Determine the functions, which relate the

uncontrollable exogenous variables to the

endogenous variables.

v) Randomly the function, which relates the

uncontrollable exogenous variables to the

endogenous variables.

vi) Repeat step (v) many times until a distribution

of the values for the endogenous variables is

formed.

Simulation technique especially the Monte Carlo is

widely used in risk analysis and evaluation. But it has

the disadvantage that, it requires mainframe computers

such as OPSS etc. It is expensive to use.

Simulation methods to date have suffered from

excessive detail. Their lack of concern for external

effects and their general limitation of one dimension

being extrapolated to others, e.g. time to cost.

5.6 The Utility Theory

An attempt was made by David Bernoulli in 1738

to quantify individual’s emotions about money or

individuals’ value system. However, it was not until

1944 that a formal mathematical theory was set

forth by Yon Neuman and Morgenstern to describe,

in a quantitative sense, a decision maker’s attitude

and feelings about money. Their theory becomes the

modem utility theory.

The concept of utility is psychologically oriented

and refers to subjective satisfaction derived by an


20/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


individual from the possession of a given number of

units of a particular commodity. The utility theory

referred to herein is often thought of as a concept for

measuring the attitudes of an individuals (decision

maker) towards risk and uncertainty. The theory

rst enunciates certain axioms obeyed by a rational

man and the show that these lead to the existence of

a preference ordering or utility function ‘IT which

satises the following properties:

1. ‘U’ is dened as the set of all possible

outcomes

2. Outcome ‘X’ is preferred to outcomes ‘Y’ if

and if U (X) > U (V)

3. A decision giving chances T of achieving

outcomes ‘X’ (I < 1 < n) is preferred to

one giving chances q of achieving outcomes

Y (I < j < n)

Where probability = q = I if and only if

PU(X) > q U (Y)

Property (2) shows that a utility function ranks the

outcome in the preference order while property (3)shows that one set of probabilistic outcomes i.e.

preferred to another if and only if it has a higher

expected utility. It follows from this property that

a rational man ill always act so as to maximise his

expected utility.

5.7 Expert System

A lot of research is being done on articial intelligence

and expert systems. Specically one of the most

sophisticated models that can be developed for risk

management is making use of knowledge-based

systems or human-computer cooperative systems.

This system is designed to assist the project managers

in achieving more effective control over risks by

providing them with appropriate knowledge, gathered

from many project managers and compiled into

a knowledge-base. It is designed to warn project

managers of risks that may follow etc. While doing

this, the logical thinking and the intuitive thinking of

the managers is accounted for in the system.

5.8 Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)

The analytical hierarchical process was originally

developed by Saaty (1980). It provides a exible

and easily understandable process to analyze project

risks. It provides a promising alternative in complex

situations involving a multi-criteria decision making

methodology. It has structured approach to decision-

making that eliminates much of the guesswork and

confusion or ordinary methods of synthesizing anoverall explanation for a system. It organises the

basic rationality by breaking down the problem

into it’s smaller constituent parts and then guide

the decision maker through a series of pair-wise

comparison judgements (which are documented and

can be re-examines) to express the relative strength

or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy.

These judgements are then translated into numbers.

The AHP includes procedures and principles used to

derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for

alternative solution.

6 RISK ANALYSES

The model used for the analysis of the risks that

have been identied with the case under study is

the analytical Hierarchical Process. The model

and its process have been described in this paper.

Implementation of integrated Road development

programme in the city of Kolhapur on BOT basis has

been taken as a case study of risk analysis.

6.1 Analytical Hierarchical Process Model

(AHP)

The analytical hierarchical process was originally

developed by Saaty (1980) is a multi-criteria decision


21/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


making methodology. It allows the decision maker to

set priorities and make choices on the basis of their

objectives, knowledge and experience consistent

with their intuitive thought process. It fulls the

requirements for an executive decision system

where decision makers can structure a system and its

environment into mutually interacting parts and then

synthesize them by measuring and ranking the impact

of these parts of the entire system.

A conventional approach to risk analysis suffers two

major limitations:

a) It requires detailed qualitative information that

is not normally available at the project planning

stage.

b) The problems are ill dened due to subjective

nature, which leads to imprecise decision during

their applicability.

The deductive as well as systems approach of AHP

within an integrated, logical framework removes these

limitations and makes the understanding of complex

situations simpler. The structured approach to decisionmaking eliminates much of the guesswork.

AHP has been applied successfully to a wide variety

of problems over then past several years that include

Architecture (Satty and Erdcnncr, 1979), Conict

Resolution (Gholam Nezhad 1983 and 1984)

Predictions (Saatyy and Gholam – Nezhad 1982

Ciholam - Nczhad 1985)

The AHP uses a hierarchical approach where the

problem is decomposed into a number of interrelated

factors and then arranged in a hierarchical order.

The number of levels in the hierarchy depends on

the complexity of the problem as well as the degree

of detail needed to solve the problem. Each factor is

evaluated with respected to the other related factors.

Once the problem has been structured, expert judgments

are solicited from the decision maker relating to each

fact of the problem. The methodology foes not require

any numerical guess. The degree of importance of the

elements at a particular level with respect to those in

the immediate upper level is judged by the decision

maker and measured by a procedure of pair wise

comparisons repeated for all elements at each level.

The ultimate goal of doing this is assign numerical

values to the subjective judgements on the relative

importance of each element with values varying from

one to nine. The pair wise comparison scale used for

the risk analysis of the project under study is given

in Table 1. This is also the fundamental scale of AHP

and consists of numbers (one to nine) associated

with intensities of importance or preference. This

methodology has been shown to provide remarkably

accurate results. The consistency of judgement in any

decision making process is vital because of its impact

on the quality of decision.

Unfortunately, lack of inconsistency is expected to

exist in almost any set of the pair wise comparison.

The consistency of pair wise judgements is measured

in AHP from the Consistency Ratio (CR):

CR = CI/RI

Where,

CI = Consistency Index

RI = Random Index

Consistency Index, CI = ( λ max – n) (n – I)

Where,

λ max = large eigen value

n = ran of the matrix

The Random Index is given in Table 2.


22/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


Table 1 Pair wise Comparison Scale

Intensity of

Importance

Defnition Explanation

1 Equal Importance Two elements contribute equally to the Property2 Moderate importance of one

over another

Experience and Judgment slightly favour one element over

another

5 Essential or strong importance Experience and judgement slightly favour one element over

another

7 Very strong importance An element is strongly favoured and its dominance is

demonstrated practice

9 Extreme importance The evidence favouring one element over another is of the

highest possible order of afrmation

2,4,6,8 Intermediate Value When compromise is needed

Table 2 Random Index Table

N Random Index

1 0.00

2 0.00

3 0.58

4 0.90

5 1.12

6 1.24

7 1.32

8 1.41

9 1.45

10 1.49

6.1.1 Steps of Analytical Hierarchical Process

The following are the steps to be taken in formulating

the risk-analysis model Analytical Hierarchical

Process:

Step 1: The scope of the total project is classied

through the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The

whole project is classied into manageable work

packages in accordance with the similarities of

activities. Risk analysis is considered separately for

the various packages. In the project under study as

risks pertaining to cost overruns are being studied; the

entire project cost is divided into four cost centers.

Step 2: In this step, identication of risk factors and

sub-factors is done for specic work packages and the

establishment of a hierarchical risk structure from the

package concerned. Various techniques, ranging form

simple interviews and the application of the analyst’s

own experience to the Delphi technique, can be used

for the identication of risk factors and sub-factors.

Thus, the risk factors relating to each cost center are

determined and an AHP model is developed. This

model has been shown subsequently.

Step 3: The relative weights of the various risk factors

are determined by pair v comparison according to the

severity of risk on the basis of questionnaire lled

experienced project managers and planning engineers.

The scale of giving weightages has already been

shown in Table 1. This creates a detailed analysis of

the ranking the risk factors for the cost centers under

consideration with respect to the severity of risk.

Step 4: the level of likelihood of each factor is

determined with respect to high medium and low


23/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


risk. The risks having probability more than six are

considered to be high risks, those with probability

from one to six are considered to be medium risks and

those with less than one are considered as low risks.

Step 5: The likelihood of the levels of risk are

synthesized and determined in this step. The

likelihood’s of high, medium and low total are

determined by aggregating the relative weights

through the hierarchy.

Step 6: A sensitivity analysis is carried out. The

outcome of the analysis above is dependent on the

hierarchy established by the management, and the

relative judgements made about the elements of

the problems. Changes in the hierarchy may lead to

change in the outcome. The effect of the change can

be examined through the sensitivity analysis.

Step 7: The overall risk of the cost centers is

determined. The likelihood levels of risk and the

weights of different levels of risk are combined to

determine the overall risk of all cost centers.

Step 8: The cost centers are ranked in accordance

with the risk probability and severity. The result from

the determination of the overall risks of cost centers

are used to ranks the cost centers with respect to their

risks.

The results of the Analytical Hierarchical Process for

the risks affecting the cost overruns of the project

under study are given in Table 3.

Table 3 Risk Identifed in Various Stages by Using AHP

Sl.

No

Stages of Project Risk Identifed in various stages Likeli-

hood

(L)

Seve-

rity

(S)

Chance

of

detec-

tion (D)

Weigh-

tages

(W)

Risk

Number

= L*S*

D*W

Percent

Risk

Share

1 Preconstruction Reliability of TOR 1 10 3 0.68 20.40

2 Risk of getting the clearance approved 1 10 3 0.68 20.40

3 Reliability of the DPR 1 8 1 0.68 5.44

46.24 0.48

4 Client team Type of client 3 5 3 0.68 30.60

5 Change in requirement 5 5 5 0.68 85.00

6 Delay in decision & approach 5 5 5 0.68 85.00

7 Change in Government policy 3 5 3 0.68 30.60

8 Interpretation of the requirements 3 8 3 0.68 48.96

280.16 2.90

9 Design team Experience of the team 3 10 3 1.58 142.20

10 Faulty design 1 10 3 1.58 47.40

11 Continuity of the team 1 2 3 1.58 9.4812 Level of design information 3 5 5 1.58 118.50

13 Practicality of the design 1 10 1 1.58 15.80

333.38 3.45

14 Construction Scope of the Project 3 10 1 2.26 67.80

15 Deviation in site parameters 3 10 3 2.26 203.40

16 Location 3 10 3 2.26 203.40


24/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


Sl.

No


hood

(L)

Seve-

rity

(S)

Chance

of

detec-

tion (D)

Weigh-

tages

(W)

Risk

Number

= L*S*

D*W

Percent

Risk

Share

17 Access Problem 5 5 1 2.26 56.5018 Legal restrictions 5 10 1 2.26 113.00

19 Contaminated 1 5 1 2.26 11.30

20 Occupies 5 5 1 2.26 56.50

21 Noise abatement 5 5 1 2.26 56.50

22 Time overruns 5 5 5 2.26 282.50

23 Fixed price 8 2 3 2.26 108.48

24 Performance & nancial 3 5 3 2.26 101.70

25 Dispute 8 8 5 2.26 723.20

26 Ability to carry out construction 3 10 3 2.26 203.40

27 Testing 5 8 3 2.26 271.20

2628.3 27.19

28 Geological Presence of faults 8 10 1.58 379.20

29 Weak foundation 5 8 1 1.58 63.20

30 Water table 5 8 5 1.58 316.00

31 Earthquake 5 10 5 1.58 395.00

1153.4 11.93

32 Environment Loss of ora 8 10 3 1.58 379.20

33 Loss of fertile 8 10 3 1.58 379.20

34 Rehabilitation 10 10 5 1.58 690.00

35 Radiation damage 0 - - 1.58 00.00

36 Damage due to 0 - - 1.58 00.00

1584.4 16.02

37 Fuel Non availability 3 10 5 1.13 169.50

38 Floods 5 10 5 1.1. 282.50

452.00 4.68

39 Contractual Form of contract 1 5 1 0.68 3.40

40 Type of tender 3 5 1 0.68 10.20

41 Claims 8 8 3 0.68 130.56

42 Arbitration 5 8 5 0.68 136.00

280.16 2.90

43 Financial Delay in 5 5 5 1.13 141.25

44 Delay in 5 5 5 1.13 141.25

45 Restrictions on cash Flows 3 2 3 1.13 20.34

46 Ination rate 5 5 5 1.13 141.25

47 Exchange rate risk 5 5 5 1.13 141.25


25/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


Sl.

No


hood

(L)

Seve-

rity

(S)

Chance

of

detec-

tion (D)

Weigh-

tages

(W)

Risk

Number

= L*S*

D*W

Percent

Risk

Share

48 Inability of the contractor to pay 8 10 3 1.13 271.2049 Tax Implications 1 5 8 1.13 45.20

50 Repatriation of prots 1 5 8 1.13 45.20

946.94 9.80

51 Political & regulatory Risk 3 8 5 0.68 81.60

52 Conict between government bodies 5 8 5 0.68 136.00

53 Inadequacy of legal frame work 1 8 3 0.68 16.32

54 Risk of change in legal & regulatory

environment

1 10 5 0.68 34.00

55 Price setting policy 3 5 3 0.68 30.60

56 Enforceability of contracts 3 8 3 0.68 48.96

347.48 3.59

57 Operation Risk Number & performance of sub

contractors

3 5 3 2.27 102.15

58 Defective works 3 10 3 2.27 204.30

59 Hidden problems 3 10 5 2.27 340.50

60 Force majeure 1 10 10 2.27 227.00

61 Materials & Plant availability 1 10 3 2.27 68.10

62 Risk of maintaining the load factor 3 8 3 2.27 163.44

63 Bankruptcy of sub contractor 3 5 1 2.27 34.05

64 Variations in change orders 3 5 5 2.27 170.25

65 Risk of failure of structure 3 10 5 2.27 340.50

1650.29 17.06

Total 9666.83 100

6.1.2 Risks Identifed by the Analytical Hierarchical

Process Model

Total estimated cost is divided into four components

as given below:

Where,

T1 = Design or Specication Risk

T2 = Material Risk

T3 = Equipment Risk

T4 = Cash Flow Risk

F2 = Price Escalation Risk


26/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


F3 = Ination Risk

F4 = Payment to Contractor Risk

P1 = Legal Risk

P2 = Accidents Risk

P3 = Non Performance by the Contractor Risk

S1 = Clearance Risk

S2 = Change in Local Laws Risk

S3 = Disapproval of Pans Risk

6.1.3 Advantages of Analytical Hierarchical Process

The observed advantages of AHP are as following:

i) It divides the complete project into controllable

work packages through the work breakdown

structure.

ii) It classies the various sources of risk associated

with the work packages

iii) It identies risk factors and sub-factors and

their hierarchical order.

iv) It determines the contributions of specic

risk to time and cost overruns and too Non-

conformance to quality standards

v) It enables the management to control high-risk

work packages by the use of a highly competent

team.

vi) It helps in formulating contract strategy.

vii) It creates a condence about project

achievement.

viii) It extends valuable support for the project’s

participating agencies in the decision making

process.

6.1.4 Result of AHP on Project under Study

Table 4 shows of cost centers on the basis of impact

due to the risks leading to cost overruns.

Table 4 Ranking of Risk Causing Cost Overruns, as

Obtained from the Analytical Hierarchical Process

Cost centers Rank

Financial 1

Statutory 2

Technical 3

Socio-Political 4

7 CONCLUSION

In today’s rapidly growing Highway projects, the

quantum of risk has also increased considerably.

Highway projects involve various types of risks

such as Construction risk, Operation & Maintenance

risk, Political risk, Revenue risk and Regulatory

risk. Various stages of project like Gestation stage,Development stage, Construction and Start up stage

and Operational stage involves different types of

risks.

For analyzing these risks there are various methods

available which are as follows:

● Evaluation of Risk

● Probability Concepts

● Decision Trees

● Decision Matrix

● Risk Simulation

● The Utility Theory

● Expert system

● Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)

In project management terms the most serious effect

of risk can be summarized:

a) Failure to keep within the cost estimate b) Failure to achieve the required completion date

c) Failure to achieve the required quality and

operational requirements.

As far as rating agencies role is concerned. A

scientically graded project would lend itself to a

more accurate and reliable estimate of risks associated

with the infrastructure project.


27/82

TECHNICAL PAPERS


8 RECOMMENDATIONS

● Before signing the contract agreement, all the

parties should study all the areas where there is

possibility of involvement of risk.

● The contractor should be well versed with thesite conditions before signing the contract.

● Proper nance should be arranged before the

start of the project.

● The uses of new technologies and construction

methods would reduce the time of construction.

This will reduce the project completion risk.

● By forming joint ventures with strong parties,

the risk involved will be distributed evenly.

REFERENCES

1. Ramakrishnan R (January 2004), Construction Journal of

India, 8-11

2. Laxton (1996) ‘Guide to Risk Analysis & Management’,

Oxford Butterworth-Heinemann, Jorden Hill.

3. Prasanna Chandra (2002), ‘Financial Managers, Tata

McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi,

Sensitivity analysis, RA.

4. CODE (October 2003), ‘Risk Management in Construction

Projects’, Publication Bureau, NICMAR Pune.

5. Construction World, Vol. 7 No. 11, August 2005.

6. Prasanna Chandra (2002) Projects, Tata McGraw-Hill

Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi.

7. Prasanna Chandra (2001), ‘Financial Management’, Tata

McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi.

8. Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (1997), Project Risk

Management’, John Willey & sons, New York.

9. Singh, Indrasen, “Risk Management in Contracts”

Seminar on Urban Infrastructure Renewal – Challenges,

Impediments & Solutions, CIDC, India Habitat Centre,

New Delhi, January 31, 2008.

10. Singh, Indrasen, “Risk Management on Public Private

Participation in Highway Project”, a National Seminar

o

Indian Highways Vol.41 3 Mar 13

Documents

Transcript of Indian Highways Vol.41 3 Mar 13