Indian Climate Actions 2008-2030

J M Mauskar

Former Special Secretary

Ministry of Environment & Forests

18 March 2016

iCED

18 March 2016

What is this all about- I

• Climate Change due to Anthropogenic Global Warming

• Global Scenario • Indian Scenario

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Climate Change

• Natural vs Manmade • Global vs Local/ Regional • Reversible vs Irreversible

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IPCC FINDINGS

• Warming of the climate system due to GHGs is

unequivocal

• Global mean temperature is rising

• Temperature change forecast for 2100 is 1.1 to

6.4°C

• Global sea level rise is faster

• GHG emissions going up

• CO2 atmospheric concentration up from 280 ppm

(pre-industrial value) to 400 ppm (2014).

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Likely Impacts of Climate Change

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Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Across all

scenarios,

average

warming is

0.2°C per

decade

Committed

warming

averages

0.1°C per

decade for

next two

decades

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• Snow cover is projected to contract

• Widespread increases projected in thaw depth

in most permafrost regions

• Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic

and Antarctic

• Arctic late-summer sea ice is projected to

disappear almost entirely by the latter part of

the 21st century

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

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India & Climate Change

• Natural Climate Variability: Monsoons & Himalayas

• Projected Impacts of Climate Change:

Increased Variability & Sea Level Rise • Our Imperatives: Equity, Poverty Eradication

and Development

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Indian Region USA EAST Coast

250

mm

50 mm

Plot for the period 1990-2006 – illustrates the much larger

temporal variability of rainfall over the Indian region – both year

to year and within a year

Higher Climate Variability in India- I

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South America

Indian Region Russian Region

Europe Region

Higher Climate Variability in India- II

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Higher Climate Variability in India- III

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India: Observed Climate Trends

• No trend in monsoon rainfall at All India level • No significant long-term trend in the frequencies of

large-scale droughts or floods in the summer monsoon season.

• Total frequency of cyclonic storms forming over Bay of Bengal almost constant.

• Significant warming exceeding 0.4C in surface air temperature.

• Glaciers in Himalayas receding at a rapid pace. [Geological Survey of India: Glaciers worldwide in a phase of recession as a natural cyclic process]

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Projected Climate Change over India

• Increase in rainfall by 15-40% by the end of the 21st century with high regional variability

• Warming projected to be more pronounced over land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India.

• Warming to be relatively greater in winter and post-monsoon seasons.

• Increase in annual mean temperature by 3°C to 6°C projected by the end of 21st century.

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What is this all about- II

• UNFCCC 1992 • Kyoto Protocol 1997

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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992

• The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for addressing climate change by a global effort, in particular, that of equity and “common but differentiated responsibilities & respective capabilities” of countries; that development is the foremost concern of developing countries, etc.

• It also gave a “soft target” for industrialized countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990 levels of GHG emissions by 2000

• All major countries, including USA, EU, India, China, have ratified the Convention

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The principle of common but differentiated

responsibilities and respective capabilities lies at the

heart of the UNFCCC.

The countries in Annex I of the UNFCCC are based on

developed/developing countries differentiation. All these

countries have a high per-capita emissions level though the

converse does not follow automatically.

The Kyoto Protocol embodies this principle by asking

developed countries in Annex I to take GHG reduction

commitments.

CBDR

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Kyoto Protocol, 1997 - I

Legally binding Protocol setting out:

• Targets for GHG reductions by individual industrialized countries during “first commitment period”, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2% below their aggregate 1990 emissions; actual percentages vary by Party

• KP envisages “cooperative implementation mechanisms” setting up a global market in carbon credits: Clean Development Mechanism, applicable to developing countries, operational since 2005

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• Only Annex I parties to pursue reduction of GHG from Aviation and Marine sectors through ICAO and IMO.

• USA has not ratified; EU, China, India, Brazil etc. are Parties.

• Second Commitment Period from 2013 till 2020 agreed, ratification still going on, Canada etc. have opted out.

Kyoto Protocol, 1997 - II

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What is this all about - III

• Montreal Dialogue CoP 2005 • Mitigation Actions by the US and Major

Emitters

• Bali Roadmap CoP 2007 • NAPCC: Integrated Approach to Climate

Actions

• Copenhagen Pledge • Indian Mitigation Contribution

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India & Climate Change Actions

• 5 Year Plans 1952 onwards: Adaptation & Mitigation Actions (Co-benefits & national imperatives)

• Heiligendamm Declaration 2007 (Unilateral) • In pursuit of its development India will not exceed

average per capita GHG emissions of developed countries

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) 2008

• Copenhagen Pledge

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NAPCC 2008

• India’s first National Action Plan on Climate

Change (NAPCC)

• Outlines existing and future policies and

programs addressing climate mitigation and

adaptation.

• The plan identifies eight core “national missions”

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NAPCC: National Solar Mission

To significantly increase the share of solar energy in total

energy mix

• Specific goals for increasing use of solar thermal technologies

in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments;

• A goal of increasing production of PVs to 1000 MW/year; and

• A goal of deploying at least 1000 MW of solar thermal power

generation.

• To launch a major R&D programme, which could draw

upon international cooperation as well, to enable the cre­ation

of more affordable, more convenient solar power systems

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NAPCC:National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001, the plan

recommends:

• Mandating specific energy consumption decreases in large

energy-consuming industries;

• Energy incentives, including reduced taxes on energy-efficient

appliances; and

• Financing for public-private partnerships to reduce energy

consumption through demand-side management programs

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NAPCC:National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban

planning, the plan calls for:

• Extending the existing Energy Conservation Building Code;

• A greater emphasis on urban waste management and

recycling;

• Strengthening the enforcement of automotive fuel economy

standards; and

• Incentives for the use of public transportation.

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NAPCC:National Water Mission

To ensure integrated water resource management helping to

conserve water, minimize wastage and ensure more equitable

distribution both across and within states

• Seek to optimize water use by increasing water use

effi­ciency by 20%;

• to ensure a considerable share of the water needs of urban

areas are met through recycling of waste water, and that of

coastal cities met through adoption of new and appro­priate

technologies such as desali­nation;

• to develop new regulatory structures, combined with

appropriate entitlements and pricing; and

• to optimize the efficiency of existing irrigation systems also

expand irrigation, where feasible, with a special to increase

storage capacity

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NAPCC: Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

To evolve management measures for sustaining and safeguarding

the Himalayan glacier and mountain eco-system

• Seek to understand, whether and the extent to which, the

Himalayan glaciers are in recession and how the problem

could be addressed;

• to exchange information with the South Asian countries

and countries sharing the Himalayan ecology;

• to establish an observational and monitoring network for the

Himalayan environment to assess freshwater resources and

health of the ecosystem; and

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NAPCC: Mission for a Green India

To enhance eco-system services including carbon sinks

• through afforestation of 6 million hectares of land;

• expanding area under for­est and tree cover from 23% to

33%;

• The mission will be taken up on degraded forest land through

direct action by communities, organized through Joint

Forest Management Committees and guided by the

Departments of Forest in state governments; and

• The institutional arrangement (Compensatory Afforestaion

Management and Planning Authority (CAMPA)) provides for

using the over 6000 crore initial corpus to leverage more funds

to scale up activity.

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NAPCC: Mission for Sustainable Agriculture

To make Indian agriculture more resilient to climate change

• through convergence and integration of traditional knowledge

and practice systems, information technology, geospatial

technologies and biotechnology;

• new credit and insurance mechanisms to facilitate adoption of

desired practices;

• improve productivity of rain-fed agriculture

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NAPCC: Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

To identify the challenges of, and the responses to,

climate change

• through funding of high quality and focused research;

• establishment of dedicated climate change related academic

units in Universities and other academic and scientific

research institu­tions in the country;

• Climate Science Research Fund would be created under the

Mission to support research

• encourage private sector initiatives for development of

innovative technologies for adaptation and mitigation through

venture capital funds

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Copenhagen Pledge

Emission Intensity of Indian GDP will reduce by 20-

25% by 2020 over 2005 levels, in accordance with

the principles and relevant provisions of the

UNFCCC

-(does not cover Agriculture Sector)

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NAPCC: Updation 2015

• Re-visit of NAPCC in 2015

• New Scientific information and technological advances factored in

• New Missions / Programs in pipeline on Wind Energy, Health, Waste to Energy and Coastal Areas

• Re-design of the Missions on Water and Sustainable Agriculture

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What is this all about- IV

• Durban Platform for Enhanced Action CoP 2011

• Negotiations for a universal Treaty under the UNFCCC

• Warsaw CoP 2013 • Decision to submit INDCs in 2015

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Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) 2015

• To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation.

• To adopt a climate friendly and a cleaner path than the one followed hitherto by others at corresponding level of economic development.

• To reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 level.

continued…

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INDCs

• To achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology and low cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF).

• To better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate change, particularly agriculture, water resources, Himalayan region, coastal regions, health and disaster management.

continued…

18 March 2016

INDCs

• To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

• To mobilize domestic and new & additional funds from developed countries to implement the above mitigation and adaptation actions in view of the resource required and the resource gap.

• To build capacities, create domestic framework and international architecture for quick diffusion of cutting edge climate technology in India and for joint collaborative R&D for such future technologies.

continued…

18 March 2016

INDCs: 8 Priority Areas

1) Introducing new, more efficient and cleaner technologies in thermal power generation.

2) Promoting renewable energy generation and increasing the share of alternative fuels in overall fuel mix.

3) Reducing emissions from transportation sector.

4) Promoting energy efficiency in the economy, notably in industry, transportation, buildings and appliances.

continued…

18 March 2016

INDCs: 8 Priority Areas

5) Reducing emissions from waste.

6) Developing climate resilient infrastructure.

7) Full implementation of Green India Mission and other programmes of afforestation.

8) Planning and implementation of actions to enhance climate resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change

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INDCs: Caveats and Clarification

• INDCs do not bind India to take any sector specific mitigation obligation or action, including in Agriculture Sector

• INDC implementation will be protective of vulnerable sectors and segments of society

• Success of INDCs contingent on an ambitious global Agreement at Paris, including additional means of implementation, Finance, Technology and Capacity Building by developed countries

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What is this all about- V

• SDGs UNGA 2015 • To end poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and

tackle climate change by 2030

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SDGs

Goal 1: No poverty • End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Goal 2: Zero hunger • End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and

promote sustainable agriculture

Goal 3: Good health and well-being • Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all

Goal 4: Quality education • Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote

lifelong learning opportunities for all

Goal 5: Gender equality • Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

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SDGs

Goal 6: Clean water and sanitation • Ensure access to water and sanitation for all

Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy • Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern

energy for all Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth

• Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all

Goal 9: Industry, innovation, infrastructure • Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable

industrialization and foster innovation Goal 10: Reduced inequalities

• Reduce inequality within and among countries

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SDGs

Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities • Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

Goal 12: Responsible consumption, production • Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 13: Climate action • Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

Goal 14: Life below water • Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine

resources

Goal 15: Life on land • Sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and

reverse land degradation, halt biodiversity loss

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SDGs

Goal 16: Peace, justice and strong institutions

• Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies

Goal 17: Partnerships for the goals • Revitalize the global partnership for sustainable

development

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What is this all about- VI

• Paris Agreement and Decisions at CoP 2015

• Principles of the UNFCCC, especially Equity & CBDR, exists in the Agreement

• INDC 2015 to be re-submitted before 2020 • Provisions built-in for transparency of action

and support, global stock take and facilitation of implementation and compliance

18 March 2016

Thank you