India unlocking the Missing Middle

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Transcript of India unlocking the Missing Middle

Page 1: India unlocking the Missing Middle

Page 2: India unlocking the Missing Middle

Elite (11M HHs, 4%)>$37k annual gross HH incomeWealthiest class in IndiaAffluent (26M HHs, 9%)$18.5k-$37k annual gross HH incomeTop 6-10% of highest income HHsAspires (66M HHs, 23%)$7.4k-18.5k annual gross HH incomeMiddle Class- Looking to trade up & aspire to upgrade (Disposable Income - 60%)Next Billion (103M HHs, 500m, 36%)$3.3k-$7.4k annual gross HH incomeNew Consumers- HHs have some disposable income (33%), total spend $1 T

Strugglers (80M HHs, 28%)<$3.3k annual gross HH incomeHHs with the majority of spend on basic needs such as food, shelter, power & water

India 2020

India 1Elite, Affluent and Aspirers (Current Opportunity)

India 2 Next Billion (New Opportunity)

India 3 Strugglers

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The Missing Middle

Large informal economy

> 45% of GDP

Informal employment80% of workforce

Low per capita spending

97% of population

lives on < US$10 per day

Lack of data Only 3% of population pays taxes

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Unlocking India 2 (Bharat) Potential in 3 Steps

India StackTechnology

backbone for presence-less, paperless and

cashless economy

Financial InclusionPayments,

Lending, Savings

2nd DerivativesHealthcareEntertainmentConsumer CleantechSupply Chain Tech…

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Digital Identity1 Billion have Aadhaar

Mobile200 M smartphones350 M have internet25 M smartphones sold per quarter

India is changing

GST70 Mn entities with digital invoices. Pulling in smaller enterprises into the formal economy

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PRESENCE-LESS LAYER

Aadhaar Authentication

Unique digital biometric identity with open access of

nearly a Billion users

CONSENT LAYER National Policy on Data Sharing

Provides a modern privacy data sharing framework

PAPERLESS LAYERAadhaar e-KYC,E-sign, Digital

Locker

Rapidly growing base of paperless systems with

billions of artifacts

CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPI

Game changing electronic payment systems and transition to cashless

economy

COMMERCE

(GSTn)SUBSIDIES

(DBT)BILLS

(BBPS)OTHE

RS

I N D

I A

S

T A

C K

TOLLS(ETC)

JAM Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Mobile

India Stack

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Source: UIDAI, NPCI, TRAI Website, Conversations with NPCI, eMudhra, Deity officials

3 BnAuthentications of 500M unique ids

1.075 Bn

Enrolments In 6 years since launch

340 MneKYC in 3 years75 Mn unique ids

349 MnAPB Accounts Linked1.2 B Transactions worth 4.5 B USD in 3 years>2.5

Mne-Sign in 15 months>0.8 Mn unique ids

2.9 MnDigilocker users & 15 months

4.8 MnUploaded Docs

2M+UPI VPA in Just under 2 Months

252 Mn

Jan Dhan bank accounts

200 MnSmartphones1060

MnPhone numbers

Jan Dhan

Aadhaar Mobile

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Time

Winning ‘Next Billion’ Consumers needs new mindset

Pene

tra tion

S-Curve 1 focused on India 1

S-Curve 2 focused on India 2 (Bharat)

Almost fully penetratedCreated winners like FK, Amazon India, HDFC BankCopy-paste business models

Sizeable discretionary spending power and appetite: - Consumption Spend is $1T in 2020- Unrecognized profit pools- China scale: 36% of population = ~500M people

Unknown and unverified business modelsChina or US Copy-paste business models won’t work

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India 2 | Financial Inclusion

India StackTechnology

backbone for presence-less, paperless and

cashless economy

Financial InclusionPayments,

Lending, Savings

2nd DerivativesHealthcareEntertainmentConsumer CleantechSupply Chain Tech…

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2.0x86% 690M

Payments

Currency in

circulation

withdrawn

Card base now

activated. 2.5x card

transactions in 1 month

Digital transactions are up 2x. Share of

payments 3xTotal value of digital payments by 2020 is estimated to be

USD 1 Trillion

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Consumer Lending

Debt penetration remains low, with <30% households having any form of debt

Overall household debt to GDP is < 20%, with banking sector consumer loans to GDP at ~10%

High Degree of Financial Exclusion

http://pn.ispirt.in/ispirt-the-india-stack-pilot-commercialization-of-techno-creative-innovations/

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● 79% of enterprises in India have < 10 employees

● Lending to smaller enterprises is at a significantly higher rate

● With increasing digitization, share of bank lending should increase and cost of lending should come down

● Consumer and SME loans to grow 5x over the next 10 yrs.

SME Lending

High Degree of Financial Exclusion

93% of MSMEs are reliant on self finance

or no finance

Institutional Sources 5%

Non-Institutional Sources 2%

Self-Financed 93%

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India 2 | 2nd Derivatives

India StackTechnology

backbone for presence-less, paperless and

cashless economy

Financial InclusionPayments,

Lending, Savings

2nd DerivativesHealthcareEntertainmentConsumer CleantechSupply Chain Tech…

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Opportunity is large...

HealthcareIndia needs 4x doctors and 2x nurses to serve the population

EntertainmentLocal language

internet users set to cross 500 Mn by

2020

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40m to the next Billion

Homegrown solutions are finding success tapping this opportunity and attracting capital

Technology unlock has raised India’s consuming class to ~ 350mn people vs < 60mn earlier

Inflection point in growth for solutions that leverage this tech infrastructure

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