India Second National Communication to UNFCCC Executive Summary

7/31/2019 India Second National Communication to UNFCCC Executive Summary

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Ministry of Environment & ForestsGovernment of India

2012

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

IndiaSecond National Communication tothe United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change


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EXECUTIVESUMMA

IndiaSecond National Communication tothe United Nations Framework Conventio

on Climate Change


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India

Second National Communication to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, 2012

Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India and

Chairman, National Steering Committee

Paryavaran Bhawan, CGO Complex

Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003

Phone: 91-11-24360721

Fax: 91-11-24362746

National Project DirectorIndias Second National Communication to the UNFCCC

Room No. 112, Paryavaran Bhawan

Ministry of Environment and Forests

CGO Complex, Lodhi Road

New Delhi 110 003

Telefax: 91-11-24360861

E-mail: [email protected]

Global Environment Facility

Washington DC 20433, USA

United Nations Development Programme

Lodhi Estate, New Delhi 110003


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ForewordOn behalf of the Government of India, I have great pleasure in presentin

Communication in fulfilment of commitment under the United Nations Framew

Change. The Communication has been prepared by a national effort and contr

more than 200 scientists and experts belonging to various institutions country

than 120 multi-disciplinary teams to work on various aspects of climate chang

entire process has been participatory in nature involving numerous institution

National Steering Committee (NSC), with members from 21 Ministries/Depa

of India, oversaw the implementation of the work programme. The Communic

accordance with the provisions of the Articles 4.1 and 12.1 of the Convention

17/CP.8 of the Conference of Parties. Numerous Technical Consultations as wel

through National Workshops were undertaken for the process of preparing th

The highest standards of scientific rigour in conducting this exercise, togethe

underpinned the implementation of the work programme of the National Comm

t;arh uVjktuJayanthi Natarajan

j

Minister o

E


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The information provided emanates from studies conducted and constitute an imp

studies reported in Indias Initial National Communication, bringing out extant and

and sectoral variability and vulnerability. The Government visualizes the process

Second National Communication as an opportunity to enrich and enhance Indias c

constraints, gaps, and related financial, technical and capacity needs to adequat

under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

This national effort has therefore built significant human and institutional capacities.and have identified in our Communication the constraints and the gaps that stil

financial and capacity building needs, which are required to further improve upon

National Communications; so as to ensure continuous reporting on a consistent b

with the extant guidelines.

I congratulate all those who have contributed directly and indirectly in this task.

Place : New Delhi

Dated : 12.04.2012


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Executive SummaryIndia is a Party to the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the

Government of India attaches great importance to climate

change issues. The Convention aims at stabilizing the

greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at

safer levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference with the climate system. Eradication of

poverty, avoiding risks to food production, and sustainable

development are three integrated principles deeply

embedded in the Convention. Information provided in

the present national communication, is according to the

guidelines stipulated for Parties not included in Annex I

to the UNFCCC.

India, situated below the Himalayas and lying in the

sub tropical terrain, is adorned with a largely diverse

topography, climate and biosphere, spanning a

geographic area of 3.28 million km2. Occupying almost

2.3% of the worlds land area, it is the 7th largest country in

the world but holds nearly 18% of the worlds population.

This puts the nation under great stress to ably maintaina sustainable development pathway and to harness its

resources efficiently. India shelters over 1.21 billion people

representing various socio-cultural groups that collectively

make up the worlds largest democracy.

National Circumstances

India is situated between 66oE to 98oE and 8oN to 36oN and

experiences a range of physio-geographic features that are

spread widely over its 28 States and 7 Union Territories.

These are mainly classified into: (i) mountainous terrain

(Himalayan range, Western Ghats), (ii) northern plains,

(iii) peninsular plateau, (iv) deserts, (v) coastal plains

( t d t t) d ( i) i l d (A d

Ocean, and is surrounded

and the Bay of Bengal in

variety of climatic condition

Indias climate is strongly

the north and the Thar des

act as a barrier to the frigid

from Central Asia, keepin

continent warmer than mo

All these climatic aspects

and economics of the natio

Land areas in the north of

climate with fierce summe

winters; when temperature

contrast, are the coastal

the warmth is unvarying a

rainfall pattern varies dras

the country, ranging from

less than 13 cm to about 1

The peninsular regions,

extend from the humid weeastern parts of the count

of Indias climate is the se

The monsoon season is s

Indian climate that the rest

referred as relative to it. T

seasons of rains accomp

winds from January to July

air blowing from northerly

direction prevails over th

wind picks up moisture fro

it over peninsular India. Th

monsoon. Consequent to


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the winds over the region. This is called the summer or

the southwest monsoon.

India is a land with many rivers. There are twelve major

rivers, which are spread over a catchment area of 252.8

million hectares (Mha) and cover more than 75% of the

total area of the country. Rivers in India are classified

as Himalayan, peninsular, coastal, and inland-drainage

basin rivers.

The land use pattern of India shows that about 46.1%

of the reported area for land use is under agriculture and

approximately 23.9% is under forest and tree cover (Figure

2). The remaining nearly one-third land area is distributed

between fallow land, other uncultivated land excluding

fallow land and not available for cultivation. The land use

pattern in India has been affected by a variety of factors

such as population pressure, expanding urbanization,industrial growth, grazing pressure, availability of irrigation

facilities, diversion of forest land to other uses, the law of

inheritance, and natural calamities like flood and drought.

climate-friendly policies of the G

is despite diversion of forestlan

like agriculture and developm

river valley projects, industria

construction.

Indian society is an agrarian

population almost completely

even though the share of agricu

product (GDP) has been contin

it is the most widespread ec

more than 40% of the countrys

continue to be important in Ind

to come. It feeds a growing po

labour force, and provides ra

industries. Given the physica

of the Indian subcontinent,

and regionally differentiated aimproving the economy and a

This is indeed a great policy c

particularly so in an emerging e

biodiversity as natures bounty

to technological progress. On

Figure 3: Indian forest cover assessme

Source:State of Forest Report, 1987 -

Figure 2:Indian land use changes

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2010

Not available for Cultivation Other Uncultivated land Excluding fallow land

ForestsFallow Land

Net Sown area

ii |INDIA Second National Communication


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Population levels and growth rates drive national

consumption of energy and other resources. Indias

population has steadily risen over the years, crossing the

one billion mark in 2000 and increasing annually by about

15 million since then. With a population of 846 million

in 1991, 914 million in 1994, 1027 million in 2001 and

1210 million in 2011, India is the second-most populous

country in the world. The decadal population growth rate

has, however, steadily declined from 24.8% during 1961-71 to 21.3% during 1991-2001, and 17.6% during 2001-

2011. This has resulted in reducing births by almost 36

million over the last thirty years.

Indias population density is very high; the density of

264 persons/km2 in 1991 increased to 325 persons/km2

in 2001 and 382 persons/km2 in 2011. 12 Indian states/

union territories had a population density of less than 250persons/km2, 7 had between 251-500 persons/km2, 9 had

between 501-1000 persons/km2 while 7 had above 1000

persons/km2 according to the 2011 census (Figure 4).

This, coupled with low per capita incomes and low adaptive

capacity of the majority of this population, renders them

vulnerable, particularly to the impacts of climate change

on coastal areas and fisheries.

In 1994, India had more

Approximately three-fourth

but were responsible for on

energy consumption (NSS

2001). Since then, demog

appreciable rise in the tota

with the urban share incre

There is also an increase in

at all levels. Household owup in both rural and urban

by a factor of 2, especially

ownership of mobile phon

higher energy efficiency

the market in the last few

and programmes by the g

these could provide a ma

management of electricity.

The pace of economic g

the primary indicator of

health. By this measure, I

decade, especially in the la

averaging an unprecedent


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2009-10. The previous best five-year period for growth was

in 1992-93 to 1996-97 (at 6.6% a year), triggered by the

initial burst of economic reforms following the balance of

payments crisis of 1991. That earlier spurt in investment,

productivity and growth had faltered after 1996 because of

several factors. As a consequence, growth had slowed to

an average of 5.5% during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period,

1997-98 to 2001-02. It dropped even lower to 3.8% in 2002-

03 because of a sharp, drought-induced fall in agriculturaloutput. Since then, India has witnessed an extraordinary

boom, with the aggregate investment rate surging above

37% of GDP by 2007-8 and economic growth soaring to

9% or higher in the last three years, 2008-09 to 2010-11.

The proximate drivers of this growth spurt include: (i) the

sustained investment boom, (ii) cumulative productivity-

enhancing effects of reforms, (iii) an unusually buoyant

international economic environment and (iv) a demand-

and-technology driven acceleration of modern services

output. Inspection of the sectoral composition of growth

shows that the Ninth Plan slowdown was confined to

agriculture and industry; services continued to grow and

even accelerated. Industry picked up steam from 2002-

03 and continued to grow robustly right through to 2010-

11. Agricultural growth remained variable, substantiallydependent on weather conditions.

Energy and climate change-rela

economy include the growing

and supply of energy and e

associated with energy use.

been growing rapidly since t

higher growth in the energy se

because the economic growt

intensive sectors, where the en

international standards. High gresulted in a high elasticity of

environmental emissions with r

in the electricity sector, the el

grown at a rate higher than the G

two decades, with the trend be

in the 1990s. This implies subs

power generation and transmis

products and natural gas dema

Table 1: National circumstances, 2010

CRITERIA Measure

Population (million, 2011) 1210

Relevant area (million square kilometers) 324

GDP at Factor cost (1999-2000 prices) Rs bil lion 61332

GDP at Factor cost (1999-2000 prices) US$ bill ion 1371

GDP per capita (1999-2000 prices) US$ 1133

Share of industry in GDP (percentage) 25.8

Share of services in GDP (percentage) 57.3

Figure 5: Growth of Energy, Electricity

Sources:Economic Survey of India, 19

Central Statistical Organization (CSO),

The rapid economic growth, e

increasing incomes, rapidly

modernising agriculture are le

i I di th b

iv |INDIA Second National Communication


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The reduced energy intensity of the Indian economy

since 2004, has been marked by an economic growth

rate of over 9% per annum, which has been achieved

with an energy growth of less than 4% per annum. This

reduced energy intensity, at the relatively low level of

Indias per-capita GDP, has been made possible by a

range of factors, including Indias historically sustainable

patterns of consumption, enhanced competitiveness, pro-

active policies to promote energy efficiency, and morerecently, the use of the Clean Development Mechanism to

accelerate the adoption of clean energy technologies.

Greenhouse Gas Inventory Information

This section presents a detailed description of greenhouse

gas (GHG) inventory of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane

(CH4), nitrous oxide (N

2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),

perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

emitted by sources and their removal by sinks. The sectors

covered include: energy, industrial processes, agriculture,

land use, land -use change and forestry, and waste for the

year 2000. The reporting is in accordance with the revised

guidelines 17/CP.8 for reporting National Communications

from non-Annex 1 parties to the UNFCCC. The Ministry of

Environment and Forests (MoEF), which is the focal pointof climate change in the Indian government, published

the GHG emission profile of India for the year 2007 in

2010. A brief description of the same is also provided.

While reporting the GHG inventory, care has been taken

to include consideration of the methodology used, the

Quality assurance/ Quality control (QA/QC) measures

applied, the results of the key source analysis and Tier

1 quantification of uncertainties associated with the

estimates.

In 2000, India emitted 1523777.44 Gg CO2

equivalent

(1523.8 million tons of CO2eq.) from the energy, industrial

processes, agriculture, and waste management sectors.

Gg of Hexafluoroethane (C

hexafluoride (SF6) which to

eq. emissions. Figure 6 gi

the various gases to the t

from the country.

The energy sector emitte

contributing 67% of the t

excluding LULUCF. The

355600.19 Gg CO2 eq, wGHG emissions. The ind

use sector emitted 88608.

total. The waste sector em

2000, which was 3.4% of t

7 gives the relative distribu

The relative emissions of

the total GHG emissions exlargest in 2000. CO

2was 92

the energy sector. Emissio

mainly from the agricultur

and 75.0% of total N2O e

agriculture sector. The syn

SF6) were entirely emitted

The relative distribution f

each sector is presented in

Vulnerability Assessm

India has reasons to be co

Its large population dep

sectors like agriculture and

adverse impact on water

of glaciers, decrease in rin certain pockets would

dieback of natural ecosy

sustain the livelihood of ru

impact the coastal syste

increased extreme events


12/32ventories(inGigaG

ram)ofanthropogenicemis

sionsbysourcesandremo

valsbysinksofgreenhousegasesnotcontrolledbythe

CO2

(emissions)

CO2

(removals)

CH4

N2

O

HFC-134a

HFC23

CF4

C2F6

SF6

CO2eq.

Emissions*

,024,772.84

236,257.43

19,944.68

264.16

0.220

0.420

0.870

0.087

0.013

1,301,209.39

52,212.06

2,991.42

38.66

1,027,015.54

41,191.33

6.96

7.78

543,749.85

28,246.91

4.29

2.40

229,079.90

5,976.83

9.50

6.22

9,8104.12

6,797.00

1,618.50

22.26

127,686.10

766.52

16,096.83

585.65

12,298.74

2,560.78

5.39

12.80

0.220

0.420

0.870

0.087

0.013

88,608.07

14,088.30

192.73

355,600.19

10,068.07

211,429.43

241.19

0.07

5,087.77

3,540.98

74,360.56

238.06

6.17

6,911.96

186.49

57,810.47

236,257.43

552.38

6.74

(222,567.43)

217,3

93.8

552.38

6.74

(203,704.42)

vi |INDIA Second National Communication


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Figure 7:Greenhouse gas emiss

appropriate scenario as it represents high technological

development, with the infusion of renewable energy

technologies following a sustainable growth trajectory.

India now has access to PRECIS - the latest generation

of regional models from the Hadley centre. The PRECIS

is an atmospheric and land surface model having 50km x

50km horizontal resolution over the South Asian domain

to get climatic projections

century. Three PRECIS

carried out for the period 1

generate an ensemble of f

for the Indian region. It a

significant decrease in the

except in some parts of the

Agriculture355600.6

23.3%

Waste

52552.29

3.4%Industrial processes

88608.075.8%

Figure 6:Distribution of Greenhouse gas emissions in 2000

CH4

26.73%

N2O

5.24%

HFCs0.34%

PFCs

0.42%

SF6

0.02%

CO2

67.25%

CO2

CH4

N2O

HFCs

PFCs

SF6

CO2

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

CH4

N2O

Energy Industrial Processes and Product Use Agricultu

Figure 8: Relative contributions of the individual sectors (excluding LULUCF) to GHG emissions in 2000


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viii |INDIA Second National Communication


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Impact Assessment

Impact Assessment on Water Resources

Changes in key climate variables; namely temperature,

precipitation and humidity, may have significant long

term implications for the quality and quantity of water.

The possible impacts of climate change on the water

resources of the river basins of India have been assessed

using the hydrologic model SWAT1 (Soil and Water

Assessment Tool). The model requires information on

terrain, soil profile and land-use of the area as input,

which have been obtained from global sources. These

three elements are assumed to be static in the future as

well. The weather conditions (for model input) have been

provided by the IITM Pune (PRECIS outputs). Simulated

climate outputs from PRECIS regional climate model for

present /baseline (19611990, BL), near-term (2021-

2050, MC) and long-term (2071-2098, EC) for A1B IPCC

SRES socio-economic scenario has been used. Q14

QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions)

ensemble has been used fo

of climate change and climat

resources are likely to affect irri

power capacity, environmenta

and higher flows during the we

severe droughts and flood pro

areas.

Detailed outputs have been an

two major water balance compactual evapo-transpiration (ET)

by the weather conditions dic

allied parameters. The majorit

an increase in precipitation at t

Only Brahmaputra, Cauvery a

decrease in precipitation unde

EC improves, wherein all the

increase in precipitation. The cha

under the MC scenario exhibit

(close to 10%) for the Brahma

basins. All other systems sh

x |INDIA Second National Communication


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decrease. Only two river basins - Cauvery and Krishna -

show some decrease in ET under the EC. For a majorityof the river systems, the ET has increased by more than

40%. The major reason for such an increase in ET is on

two accounts : (i) increase in the temperature and (ii)

increase in precipitation, which enhances the opportunity

of ET.

Impact Assessment on Forests

The impacts of climate change on forests in India are

assessed based on the changes in area under different

forest types, shifts in boundary of forest types and Net

Primary Productivity (NPP). This assessment was based

on: (i) spatial distribution of current climatic variables,

(ii) future climate projecte

regional climate models foA1B climate change scen

NPP and carbon stocks

model IBIS v.2 (Integrated

SRES scenario A1B is c

frames: (i) Time frame of

concentration reaches 49

2035, (ii) Time frame of

concentration reaches 68

2085. Observed climato

treated as baseline for the

The vegetation distribution

and A1B scenario in the

illustrates an expansion

(IBIS vegetation type 1) i

A1B scenario. Similar tren

Ghats. It is interesting to

vegetation type change in

is a slight expansion of fo

central India.

Impact on Net Primary

Organic Carbon (SOC): T

India for the A1B scenario

average of 30.3% by 2035

scenario. Notably, increas

part of India due to warme

there.

A trend similar to NPP d

organic carbon (SOC).This

NPP is the primary driver

However, the quantum of

in this case is lower. This

SOC pool and increased


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Vulnerability of Indian fores

already subjected to multiple extraction, insect outbreaks,

fires and other anthropogenic p

will be an additional stress. Fo

vulnerable to climate change.

is developed to assess the vuln

types and regions. A grid is mar

change in vegetation, as simula

and the future (both 2035 an

scenario, in this case) vegeta

future climate may not be optima

in those grids. The distribution

country is shown in Figure 14.

Impact Assessment on Ind

A combination of field studies a

comprehensive input data-sets

possible impacts of climatic var

on Indian agriculture. This has

statistical tools and available h

Figure 13: NPP distribution (kgC/m2/year) simulated by IBIS for

baseline and A1B scenarios

xii |INDIA Second National Communication


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The simulation analysis using InfoCrop2 models were

carried out with inputs of the gridded weather data , soildata , climate change scenario data , crop management

and genetic coefficients for respective crop varieties

wherever applicable. For plantation crops, the research

information from studies in controlled environments was

used to fine-tune data in the simulation models and to

develop regression models for studying the climate

change impacts on its productivity.

Impact of Climate change on Crop: A rise in atmospheric

carbon dioxide to 550 ppm under controlled environment

conditions - [Free Air CO2

Enrichment - FACE, Open

Top Chambers (OTC)] -, enhanced the yields of wheat,

chickpea, green gram, pigeon pea, soybean, tomato and

potato between 14% and 27%. These enhancements

were largely due to the increase in the number of storage

organs. In most of the crops, this was accompanied

by a small reduction (2 to 10%) in the protein content.

In plantation crops like coconut, areca nut and cocoa,

increased CO2led to higher biomass.

In the case of rice - hybrid and its parental lines - elevated

CO2

positively affected a few grain quality traits such as

head recovery, test weight, proportion of high density

grains and germination characteristics but adversely

affected traits like aroma, gelatinisation temperature

(measurement of cooking quality), protein and micro-

nutrient contents. Sunflower hybrids grown under elevated

CO2

conditions inside open top chambers, showed a

significant increase in biomass (61-68%) and grain yield

(36-70%) but the quality of the produce was adversely

affected in terms of protein and micro-nutrient contents.The magnitude of the impact of climate change on wheat

production in India, assessed through simulation studies,

indicated that an increase in 1oC in mean temperature,

associated with CO2

increase, would not cause any

significant loss if simple adaptation strategies such

to quantify the effects o

growth and yield of ricesoybean, and chickpea.

from 1 to 40C reduced the

potato (5 to 40%), green g

(11 to 36%). The linear

increase was 14%, 9.5%,

potato, soybean, wheat,

Chickpea, however, regis

seed yield with an increas

was reduced by 13% at 4oC

showed no significant chan

1oC temperature.

Legumes are the major

the country. Simulation s

InfoCrop models for soy

DSSAT CROPGRO mod

changes in temperature,

(baseline, 1961-1990), A1

2100) scenarios all indica

climate (combined chang

CO2

levels) on their pro

rain-fed yields under cur

2144, 2473 and 1948 kg/hchickpea respectively. Soy

10%, and 8 % increase in

A1B (2071-2100) respecti

except for A1B (2071-210

5% in yield, the other scen

rain-fed yields as compare

showed an increase in yie

by A1B (2021-2050) and

respectively. Across all

of soybean and groundn

association with crop seaso

temperature was non-sign


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prevailing crop season mean air temperatures across

major chickpea growing regions in India.

Cotton is an important cash crop, which is mostly grown

under rain-fed conditions, making it more vulnerable to

precipitation. The model results indicate that climate

change and the consequent increased temperature and

altered pattern of precipitation might decrease the cotton

yield of northern India to a greater extent than the southern

region. The impact of climate change on rain-fed cotton,which covers more than 65 to 70% of area and depends

on the monsoon is likely to be minimum, possibly because

of marginal increase in rain. Moreover, the stimulating

effect of CO2

could offset the negative impact of climate

on cotton production. Thus, at the national level, cotton

production is unlikely to change with climate change.

Adaptive measures such as changing planting time may

further boost cotton production.

Potato, a tuber, is widely consumed in India. It was found

that, without adaptation, the total potato production in

India, under the impact of climate change, might decline

by 2.61% and 15.32% in the years 2020 and 2050,

respectively. The impacts on productivity and production

varied among different agro-ecological zones.

Plantation crops: Using a validated coconut simulation

model, the impact of elevated temperature and CO2

on

coconut yields was simulated for different agro-climatic

zones. Overall results indicate that coconut yields are

likely to be positively influenced by increase in CO2

and

increase in temperature of up to 2 - 3C.

Cocoa, another plantation crop, is grown as the intercropeither under areca nut or coconut. Being a shade-crop,

cocoa is influenced only indirectly by the increase in

atmospheric temperature. The crop is maintained in

irrigated conditions and is presently confined to limited

pockets in the southern states of Karnataka and Kerala

adapt to adverse environmen

crops, onion and tomato are imgrown across the country. Howe

are very low compared to majo

problem of lower productivity w

under climate change scenario

tomato growing regions are un

prevailing temperature conditio

and tomato are sensitive to env

Grape is an important comme

a productivity of 23.5 tons/ha. G

the area with a production of 2.

in India and also 2.8% of the

has been adapted to tropical co

practice of pruning twice a ye

change on grapes would be

on rainfall during the months o

the berries mature. In severe

the month of October, could

Downey mildew disease on leav

increase in minimum temperat

plays an important role in the

total flavanoids and total acid

which ultimately affect the qual

Another fruit, the productivity

with climatic variations, is appl

future climatic scenarios usin

revealed that Himalayan eco

reduced winter precipitation (Ja

zones, high temperature durin

change in seasonal rainfall reduction in snowfall. Specifica

average increase in mean mini

temperatures in winter during th

in scenario A1B will be by 2.43

tropical - sub-temperate region

xiv |INDIA Second National Communication


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in the northern state of Himachal Pradesh are likely to be

especially benefited, due to an enhanced growing periodand reduced extreme cold weather conditions.

An important component of food that is significantly

increasing in demand, is Milk. Increased heat stress

associated with global climate change may cause distress

to dairy animals and possibly impact milk production. A

Temperature - Humidity Index (THI) was used to relate

animal stress with productivity of milk from buffaloes,crossbred and local cows. The THI analysis indicated that

the congenial THI for production is 0.70 and is achieved

during the months of January and February in most

places in India (Figure 15). There is an all-round increase

in THI in all the regions, which may impact the economic

viability of livestock production systems. Only about 10-

15% places have optimum THI for livestock productivity

during summer and the hot humid season. Most places

in India have THI > 75 and more than 85% of India

experiences moderate to high heat stress during April,

May and June. In these months, the value of THI ranges

from 75-85 at 2.00 p.m when the heat is at its peak. At

about 25% places in India, the THI exceeds 85 during

May and June, i.e. severe stress levels are experienced.

The night temperature remains high and morning THIis also high so there is no relief from heat stress. On

an average, THI exceeds 75 at 75-80% places in India

throughout the year.

It is estimated that India lo

production at present due parts of the country. Globa

impact milk production by

more than 15 million ton

conducted by scientific

crossbred cows and buff

affected than indigenous c

Impact Assessment on

Impact assessment of c

undertaken through the

Windows (TWs). TWs of m

in view the lower cut-off as

and RH from >55%. The

deg pixel, roughly 50 x 50

India for the baseline sc

generated as having two c

Keeping in view the clima

months during which trans

windows/ pixels were cate

Category I: Not a single m

Category II: 1-3 months op

Category III: 4-6 months oCategory IV: 7-9 months

Category V:10-12 month

malaria transmission.

Transmission windows h

on temperature alone as

temperature and Relative

(1960-1990) and for the 2081, 2091 and 2100.

Malaria under A1B sce

of malaria based on Tem

the baseline temperature

f t i i i d


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Projections for 2030 indicate the opening of some months

of TWs in northern states like Jammu and Kashmir,

Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which were closed in

the baseline period (Figure 16). There is a progression of

7-9 months category of TWs towards the northern districts.

In northeastern states like Tripura, parts of Assam and

Mizoram, there is an increase from 7-9 months to 10-

12 months open category. In parts of Gujarat and some

southern states (particularly towards the east coast)

there is closure of some months of TWs i.e. 10-12 month

category turning into 7-9 months. In some districts ofOrissa, which is highly endemic for malaria, an increase

in months of TWs is seen by 2030. Andaman & Nicobar

islands remain unaffected.

states, there are very few distr

for 7-9 months. Major parts of and 4-6 months open categor

on the eastern side of India fro

and Andhra Pradesh show TW

months. Transmission of mala

months in states like Rajasthan

and parts of Gujarat and Karna

When the TWs were epidemiological data of the res

match, i.e. cases occurred in mo

by TWs. The TWs based on T

less realistic than the TWs bas

This provides a clue that the re

have a different micro-niche

compared to outside temperatu

Projections by the year 2030 i

2nd and 4th categories of TWs to

of India. An increase in the 3rd

the southwestern districts in Ka

Programmes Related To Development

Indias development plans are

emphasis on economic devel

The planning process, while

economic growth, is guide

sustainable development with a

and greener environment. Pl

increase wealth and human we

conserving the environment. Itpeoples participatory institutio

particularly through empowerm

environmental sustainability of

On 30th June 2008, India ann

Figure 16:Projection of open transmission window of malaria by 2030

(based on temperature and A1B scenario)

xvi |INDIA Second National Communication


23/32

Deploying appropriate mitigation and adaptation

technologies extensively and at an acceleratedpace,

Promoting SD through innovative and new forms of

market, regulatory and voluntary mechanisms,

Effecting implementation of various policies through

unique linkages with civil society, local governments

and public-private partnerships,

Welcoming international cooperation for research,

development, sharing and transfer of technologies

driven by external funding and facilitating a global

Intellectual Property Rights regime for such a

technology transfer under the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC).

The NAPCC identifies measures that promote ourdevelopment objectives while also resulting in co-benefits

in terms of addressing climate change. There are eight

National Missions, which form the core of the NAPCC,

representing multi-pronged, long-term and integrated

strategies for achieving key goals in the context of climate

change. This underscores the fact that several of the

programmes enumerated under NAPCC are already

being undertaken under various schemes / programmes

of the Government of India (GoI) but in the present context

would require a change in direction, enhancement of

scope and accelerated implementation.

At the 15th Conference of Parties (COP-15) to the

UNFCCC in Copenhagen, Denmark between December

7-18, 2009; India pledged to continue a constructive role

in international climate diplomacy while emphasizing

the need for implementing a comprehensive domestic

response to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by

20-25% by 2020, on 2005 levels (emissions from the

agriculture sector not included). Some specific actions

remedial programmes

the cess is around US2011.

India has pursued ag

and coastal managem

and livelihood signifi

management progra

address the adaptatio

million vulnerable inha Promoting regional

has been one of the

regarding climate ch

Association for Reg

the Thimpu Statemen

April 2010. This sta

calls for an Inter-Go

Climate Change to d

for regional cooperati

of knowledge among

in better assessment

change.

The Bachat Lamp Yo

Programme of Activity

CFLs in India has be

the CDM Executive Bo

developed to promote

The past few years have

landmark environmental

targeted conservation of ri

quality, enhanced forestat

in installed capacity of re

These and other similar

democratic and legislat

implemented by commit

well as by realigning new


24/32

generation, (ix) self-reliance, (x) peoples participation

in planning and programme implementation and (xi)infrastructure development. In the present context of

climate change, development has focused on enhancing

the adaptive and mitigative capacity of the economy; and

thereby the GoI has initiated policies, programmes and

missions aimed in that direction. Infrastructure emerged as

a key sector during the 11th plan period (2007-2012), with its

role as a backbone through which the economy flourishes,

and therefore the GoI initiated new policy measures to

ensure infrastructure growth in line with economic growth.

A key feature of the vigorous infrastructure growth policy

has been the adoption of a sustainable development path

wherein infrastructure choices were made, keeping in

mind the long term perspective of ensuring lesser impacts

due to likely climate change and avoiding critical lock-ins.

Thus, measures like developing the renewable energysector, shift towards public transport, enhancing rural and

urban infrastructure and others were aimed at enhancing

the adaptive and mitigative capacities of the economic

systems.

A major weakness in the economy during the 10 th

plan was that the growth was not perceived as being

sufficiently inclusive for many groups. Gender inequalitywas considered to be a persistent problem. The 11 th plan

seeks to remedy these deficiencies by accelerating the

pace of growth, while also making it more inclusive. The

objective of inclusiveness is reflected in the adoption of

26 monitor-able targets at the national level pertaining

to income and poverty, education, health, women and

children, infrastructure and environment.

The programmes and institutions to promote energy

efficiency, energy conservation and renewable energy

technologies were initiated over two decades ago in India.

The reforms in the energy and power sectors have resulted

in accelerated economic growth improvements in fuel

Research And Systematic

The Government of India atta

promotion of R&D in the mu

environmental protection, cons

including research in climate

government ministries/departm

and coordinate climate and

activities and programmes in I

various departments, researchand autonomous institutions o

Indian Institutes of Manageme

of Technology (IITs) and the I

(IISc) with the non-governmenta

providing synergy and comp

Ministry of Science and Techn

Environment and Forests (MoE

Organisation (ESSO)/Ministry o

Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), M

(MoWR), Ministry of Human

(MHRD), Ministry of New and R

Ministry of Defense (MoD), Min

Welfare (MoHFW), and Depar

the key ministries/department

India which promote and undechange-related research and s

the country.

The Indian Space Researc

Department of Space (DO

studies on climate and environ

considerable understanding

governing the phenomena. Thviz. National Atmospheric Res

Space Physics Laboratory (S

Laboratory (PRL), Space Appli

ISRO Satellite Centre (ISAC), w

and technical strengths are en

xviii |INDIA Second National Communication


25/32

systems, National Carbon Project (NCP) and Regional

Climate Modelling (RCM). ISRO has also carried outextensive campaigns integrating satellite, aircraft, balloon

and ground-based measurements, jointly with many sister

institutions in the country.

The satellite remote sensing data have been put into

use over a wide spectrum of themes, which include land

use/ land cover, agriculture, water resources, surface

water and ground water, coastal and ocean resourcesmonitoring, environment, ecology and forest mapping,

and infrastructure development.

Other than the government ministries, several autonomous

institutions and NGOs are engaged in climate change-

related research. IIM Ahmedabad and IIT Delhi are front-

runners. The Indira Gandhi Institute of Development

Research, an institution established by the Reserve Bank

of India (RBI), is engaged in the estimation of the climatic

factors that may affect Indias development pathways.

NGOs like The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI),

Development Alternatives, Centre for Science and

Environment, and the Society for Himalayan Glaciology,

Hydrology, Ice, Climate and Environment operate in

project-based research mode on various topics such as

climate change vulnerability, impacts and related studies.

A coordinated research programme on Global and

Regional Climate Change (GRCC) during the 11 th Plan

has been launched to build a National Climate Change

Monitoring and Research Network. A programme office

has been established at the ESSO/MoES headquarters to

operate the GRCC programme to integrate all envisaged

activities in support of supplementing unified scientificresponse to global warming launched under the NAPCC.

As a part of GRCC, a dedicated Centre for Climate

Change Research (CCCR) to undertake studies on the

scientific aspects of climate change has been established

at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)

impacts, vulnerability ass

climate change for short, mregional, sub-regional an

Network for Climate Chan

MoEF conducted a major

and India: A 4x4 Assessm

Analysis. This study was

of climate change in the

the Indian economy, nam

ecosystems & biodiversit

sensitive regions of India,

the Western Ghats, the coa

region.

Education, Training a

The Government of India

increasing awareness on outreach and education

Information System (EN

country generate and provi

decision makers, policy pl

and students through web

Three major institutional m

by the Government of Icountrys response to clim

are: (i) Inter-Ministerial a

Mechanism; (ii) Expert Co

Change and (iii) the Prime

Change.

In line with the GoIs comm

about climate change ed

scientific network, the N

Knowledge for Climate Ch

to build a vibrant and dy

would inform and support

effectively to the objective


26/32

industry; and knowledge capabilities to make the

government an effective, transparent and accountableservice provider to the citizen,

Promote widespread sharing of knowledge to

maximize public benefit.

The scope of the efforts to develop a comprehensive

understanding of environmental and climate change

issues in India extends beyond the diverse sensitisation

activities conducted through and by the ministry. Highquality scientific research contributes to updating the

wealth of available knowledge on these issues and

building confidence in various climate change adaptation

and mitigation efforts. INCCA (Indian Network for Climate

Change Assessment), established by the MoEF in October

2009, is a network-based initiative and approach to make

science, particularly the 3 Ms Measuring, Modelling and

Monitoring the salient input for policy-making in climate

change. It brings together over 127 research institutions

and over 220 scientists from across the country. Till now,

INCCA has completed two assessment reports and one

Science Plan. The first report of the INCCA was about

Indias GHG emissions inventory for 2007; the second was

an assessment report titled Climate Change and India:

A 4x4 assessment- A Sectoral and Regional Analysis.Recently, the science plan on the Black Carbon Research

Initiative: National Carbonaceous Aerosol Programme

was also launched.

Industry associations have also played an active role

in awareness generation through various activities like

preparation of technology transfer projects, workshops,

training, publication, and interactive and knowledge-based websites.

Besides these, numerous capacity building initiatives

have been undertaken in India. A vital aspect of this

process has been the participation by the central and

Constraints, Gaps and Re

Technical and Capacity NIn accordance with Indias na

development priorities, a desc

and gaps, and related financi

needs, as well as proposed ac

gaps and constraints associate

of activities, measures and prog

the UNFCCC, and with the preof national communications o

been highlighted. Some projec

building research capacity an

implementation in India as

process for future national c

others have been identified and

is not an exhaustive elucidatio

technological needs and co

projects and themes are those

during the implementation of th

Second National Communica

understanding and increasing

of work could be identified.

The Indian government visual

Communication (SNC) as an

enhance Indias experience

gaps and related financial, tec

to adequately fulfil our oblig

Nations Framework Convent

including a continuing need

of national GHG inventories

assessment of vulnerabilities aand communication of informat

The broad participatory dome

Indias Second National Commu

an improved understanding of

xx |INDIA Second National Communication


27/32

economy, enhancing data depths to move to a higher tier

of inventory reporting and conducting detailed and freshmeasurements for Indian emission coefficients. This would

entail substantial financial commitment, fresh technical

inputs and building of scientific capacity (Key gaps and

constraints highlighted in Table 3).

Capacity building, networking and resource commitment

form the core of the institutional setting of the Indian

climate change research initiatives. The approach followsa shared vision for cooperative research for strengthening

and enhancing scientific knowledge, institutional capacity

(instrumentation, modelling tools, data synthesis and data

management), technical skills for climate change research

inter-agency collaboration and networking and medium to

long-term resource commitment.

The enhanced capacity is envisaged to be effectively

used for refinement of GHG inventories, making future

projections with reduced uncertainties and at higher

resolutions, developing long-term GHG emission

scenarios, for undertaking detailed impact assessments

and formulation of adaptation/response strategies to

combat climate change, to undertake integrated impact

assessments at sub-regional and regional scales and

help in diffusion of climate friendly technologies.

Given the magnitude of the tasks, complexities of

technology solutions and diversity of adaptation actions

envisaged for an improve

national communications financial needs would b

respond to the requiremen

Given that the technology

in relation to climate cha

deployment often requires

technical, but many others

transfer provides too narrofor successfully leveragi

climate challenges. The ag

viewed with the understand

must be appropriately tai

the technology as well as

same time, the importance

the application of new tech

such an application econo

must also be recognized,

Such a technology frame

following elements: Fina

deployment in developed

development, Knowledg

deployment and Capacity b

of the application of these needs to be assessed and

Table 3: Key gaps and constraints for sustained national communication activities

Gaps andconstraints

Details Possible ap

Data organization Data not available in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)-friendly formats, for inventory reporting

Consistent rep

Mismatch in top-down and bottom-up data sets for same activities Regular monicollected data

Mismatch in sectoral details across different published documents Consistent re

Non-availability ofrelevant data

Time series data for some specific inventory sub-categories, forexample, municipal solid waste sites

Generate and


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Notes


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India Second National Communication to UNFCCC Executive Summary

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