India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Tech Mahindra with a price target of Rs 2330

20
IEA-Equity Strategy 23th Dec, 2013  AXIS BANK : "Neutral" 19th Dec 2013 Axis bank is trading at 1.6 times of one year forwa rd book which is almos t upper side of bear case valuation band. We are not seeing bank’s earnings better than expectation as bank’s has significant exposure in riskier sector like infrastructure and power as compare to its peers. We have taken bank’s  valuation multiple in bear case scenario on account of non visibility of ROE improvement and expected muted earnings growth. We assume loan and deposits growth of 16% and 15% along with margin at 3.5%. Better than expected performance will lead price erformance and valuation multi le............................... Pa e : 11-14  CMC : "On track to deliver" "BUY" 20th Dec 2013 Considering recent healthy demand environment across the IT space with favorable supply side scenario, we remain confident on the stock for better earning visibility and stable margin picture. Still, we reiterate our positive stance on the long-term story of CMC due to its focus on high margin SI and ITES businesses.At a CMP of Rs 1510, stock trades at 14.9X FY14E earnings. We have "BUY" view on the stock and we revise our target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690..............................  (Page : 6-7)  Tech Mahindra : "On a s tronger footing.." "BUY" 23rd Dec 2013 Post merger with Satyam, strong demand traction in Telecom (Non BT) has improved and company's attractive deal win ratios make us optimistic view on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1691, relatively the stock is tradi ng at a fair valuat ion, 12.8x of FY14E earni ngs (at USD of Rs60/59.5 for FY14E/FY15E). We maintain “BUY” on the stock with a price target of Rs 2330 (revised from Rs 1875)....... .......... .... ( Page : 4-5)  Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." "REDUCED" 23rd Dec 2013 We had initiated this stock at a CMP of Rs 526(on 16th Feb 2013) and now, it achieved its target of Rs 960. Despite better predictability of growth and attractive visibility of its expansion in new emerging vertical s, we advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium valuation. However, sentiment could take a knock in the short run, since investors may prefer paying a premium for stocks with better earnings visibility. Our view could be change with management guidance and post earnings of coming quarter..................... .............................. ( Page:2- 3)  Godrej Consumer Product : " Strategy Shining" "BUY" 19th Dec 2013 Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in its international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. ........................................... ( Page : 15-16)  BANK OF INDIA : "BUY" 18th Dec 2013 Bank of India is trading at 0.5 times of one year forward book which is the lowest in valuation band despite of performing better than expectation largely due to lower CAR and slower e conomic growth. With the capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr and improving sign of asset quality would re-rate the stock as it did previously in our view. The management guided fresh slippage in line with 2QFY and inch up higher restructure asset for December quarter. We believe that current level is attractive entry point for the investor with time horizon more than one year with price target of Rs.235...................... .............. ( Page : 17- 19)  DIVISLAB : Good Growth Ahead "BUY" 19th Dec 2013 The compa ny posted stro ng 2QFY4 result s with net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.7% YoY on the back of good gro wth coming from al l busine ss segments. The gene ric API grew by 18% YoY to Rs 261 Cr for the quarter and CRAMS busines s segment grew by 20% YoY to Rs 271 Cr............................................. ( Page : 8-10)  email: research@na rnolia.com, website : www.narnolia .com Narnolia Securities Ltd,  402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000 India Equity Analytics

Transcript of India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Tech Mahindra with a price target of Rs 2330

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IEA-Equity

Strategy

23th Dec, 2013

AXIS BANK : "Neutral" 19th Dec 2013

Axis bank is trading at 1.6 times of one year forward book which is almost upper side of bear case valuation band. We are not seeing bank’

earnings better than expectation as bank’s has significant exposure in riskier sector like infrastructure and power as compare to its peers. Wehave taken bank’s  valuation multiple in bear case scenario on account of non visibility of ROE improvement and expected muted earning

growth. We assume loan and deposits growth of 16% and 15% along with margin at 3.5%. Better than expected performance will lead price

erformance and valuation multi le............................... Pa e : 11-14

CMC : "On track to deliver" "BUY"  20th Dec 2013

Considering recent healthy demand environment across the IT space with favorable supply side scenario, we remain confident on the stock for

better earning visibility and stable margin picture. Still, we reiterate our positive stance on the long-term story of CMC due to its focus on high

margin SI and ITES businesses.At a CMP of Rs 1510, stock trades at 14.9X FY14E earnings. We have "BUY" view on the stock and we revise ou

target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690.............................. (Page : 6-7)

Tech Mahindra : "On a stronger footing.." "BUY"  23rd Dec 2013

Post merger with Satyam, strong demand traction in Telecom (Non BT) has improved and company's attractive deal win ratios make u

optimistic view on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1691, relatively the stock is trading at a fair valuation, 12.8x of FY14E earnings (at USD o

Rs60/59.5 for FY14E/FY15E). We maintain “BUY” on the stock with a price target of Rs 2330 (revised from Rs 1875)....... .......... .... ( Page : 4-5)

Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." "REDUCED" 23rd Dec 2013

We had initiated this stock at a CMP of Rs 526(on 16th Feb 2013) and now, it achieved its target of Rs 960. Despite better predictability o

growth and attractive visibility of its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium

valuation. However, sentiment could take a knock in the short run, since investors may prefer paying a premium for stocks with better earnings

visibility. Our view could be change with management guidance and post earnings of coming quarter................................................... ( Page : 2

3)

Godrej Consumer Product : " Strategy Shining" "BUY"  19th Dec 2013

Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in

its international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite some concerns related to higher leverage, los

domestic focus and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond

...........................................( Page : 15-16)

BANK OF INDIA : "BUY" 18th Dec 2013

Bank of India is trading at 0.5 times of one year forward book which is the lowest in valuation band despite of performing better than

expectation largely due to lower CAR and slower economic growth. With the capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr and improving sign o

asset quality would re-rate the stock as it did previously in our view. The management guided fresh slippage in line with 2QFY and inch up

higher restructure asset for December quarter. We believe that current level is attractive entry point for the investor with time horizon more

than one year with price target of Rs.235.................................... ( Page : 17- 19)

DIVISLAB : Good Growth Ahead "BUY"  19th Dec 2013

The company posted strong 2QFY4 results with net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.7% YoY on the back of good growth coming from a

business segments. The generic API grew by 18% YoY to Rs 261 Cr for the quarter and CRAMS business segment grew by 20% YoY to Rs 271

Cr............................................. ( Page : 8-10)

  email: [email protected], website : www.narnolia.com

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

  402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

India Equity Analytics

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Persistent System.

-

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 24.1 105.2 91.2

l. to Nifty 23 99.4 84.6

Current 1QFY14 4QFY13

omoters 38.96 38.96 38.96

15.28 14.84 12.39

I 21.23 19.31 21.59

hers 24.53 26.89 27.06

Financials

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 432.37 357.29 21.0 326.86 32.3

EBITDA 100.8 76.8 31.3 89.06 13.2

PAT 60.8 57.1 6.5 44.71 36.0

EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.5%  180bps   27.2%  (390bp

PAT Margin 14.1% 16.0% (190bps)   13.7% 40bps

evious Target Price 890

pside -

E Code 533179

SE Symbol PERSISTENT

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

ange from Previous

fty

are Holding Pattern-%

6274

ock Performance

arket Data

Clients Metrics:  During the quarter, company added 2 clients at 32 under mediu

category( >$1mn to $3mn) and 1 client at 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) . Revenue from top

client was improved from 21.2% (1QFY14) to 22.5% . DSO at 62days, almost

quarters low.

"Persistently innovating.." 

MP 1007

rget Price 960

ompany update Book Profit We had initiated this stock at a CMP of Rs 526(on 16th

Feb 2013) and now, it achiev

its target of Rs 960. Despite better predictability of growth and attractive visibility

its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock becau

of its premium valuation. However, sentiment could take a knock in the short ru

since investors may prefer paying a premium for stocks with better earnings visibility

4029

erage Daily Volume 12139

Margin ramp up: During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 180bps to 23.3

positively impacted by currency gain(270bps), while during the quarter company wa

hike to its off shore employee at a range of 8-9% was impacted margin by 310 b

adversely. However, management expects to maintain margin at a range of 24-25% f

FY14E.

Recently , Persistent System reported superlative set of numbers during the 2QFY

with 21%(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 8.6%(QoQ) growth in USD term led

38%(QOQ) growth on the intellectual property (IP) revenues. PAT growth was at 6.5(QoQ).

With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationsh

with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we expect for better earni

visibility across niche IT players.

Persistent  Sytem’s management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline bei

strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfol

They expect to see more than 15% USD revenue growth for FY14E.

year forward P/E-x

Rs, Cro

(Source: Company/Eastwi

View and Valuation: The company’s focus is shifting greater proportion to IP led servic

and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around clou

mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering t

company’s premium valuation, we advice “Book Profit” on the stock. At a CMP of

1007, stock trades at 15.9x FY14E earnings. Our view could be change w

management guidance and post earnings of coming quarter.

Persistent's management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seegood activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of new

technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility are gaining a lot of traction because

pickup in demand environment. The emerging themes, (CAMB) Cloud, Analyti

Mobility, and Big data could also see strong demand traction ahead. Because

actively investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healt

growth and also they expressed their confidence to beat the NASSCOM guidance (1

14% revenue growth for FY14E).

wk Range H/L 1023/477

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

"Book Profit"23rd Dec' 13

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Persistent S stem.

(Source: Company/Eastwi

nancials

(Source: Company/Eastwi

ating and Price Target Chart Updation Detail

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

s, in Cr. FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

ales 601.16 775.84 1000.3 1294.5 1657.54 2053.93

mployee Cost 368.74 481.62 599.05 719 895.07 1119.39

ost of technical professionals 0 30.67 41.68 54 82.88 102.70

ther expenses 86.05 105.24 135.2 218 290.07 379.98otal expenses 454.79 617.53 775.93 990.78 1268.02 1602.0

BITDA 146.37 158.31 224.37 303.72 389.52 451.86

epreciation 33.52 42.39 61.1 78 93.54 84.18

ther Income 11.23 34.44 34.44 34.44 66.30 71.89

BIT 112.85 115.92 163.27 225.44 295.98 367.68

nterest Cost 0 0 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00

rofit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 124.08 150.36 197.71 259.851 362.29 439.57

rovision for Taxes 9.05 10.62 55.09 75.37 108.69 131.87

et Profit (+)/Loss (-) 115.03 139.74 142.62 184.481 253.60 307.70

rowth-% (YoY)

ales 1.2% 29.1% 28.9% 29.4% 28.0% 23.9%

BITDA 60.2% 8.2% 41.7% 35.4% 28.3% 16.0%

AT 74.1% 21.5% 2.1% 29.4% 37.5% 21.3%xpenses on Sales-%

mployee Cost 61.3% 62.1% 59.9% 55.5% 54.0% 54.5%

ther expenses 14.3% 13.6% 13.5% 16.9% 17.5% 18.5%

ax rate 7.3% 7.1% 27.9% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Margin-%

BITDA 24.3% 20.4% 22.4% 23.5% 23.5% 22.0%

BIT 18.8% 14.9% 16.3% 17.4% 17.9% 17.9%

AT 19.1% 18.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3% 15.0%

aluation:

MP 310 366.7 409.2 541 1007 1007

o of Share 4 4 4 4 4.00 4.00

W 639.0 747.1 840.5 1018.3 1234.4 1504.7

PS 28.8 34.9 35.7 46.1 63.4 76.9VPS 159.7 186.8 210.1 254.6 308.6 376.2

oE-% 18.0% 18.7% 17.0% 18.1% 20.5% 20.4%

/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 3.3 2.7

/E 10.8 10.5 11.5 11.7 15.9 13.1

Date Update Detail CMP View Target P

16-Feb-13 Initiation 526 BUY 580

25-Jun-13 Company Update 499 BUY 580

7-May-13 Result Update 514 BUY 580

31-Jul-13 Result Update 522 BUY 58018-Sep-13 Company Update 573 BUY 642

26-Sep-13 Company Update 623 BUY 834

9-Oct-13 Company Update 682 BUY 834

22-Oct-13 Result Update 739 BUY 890

13-Dec-13 Company Update 876 BUY 960

23-Dec-13 Company Update 1007 Book Profit

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Tech Mahindra

BUY

24%

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 9.3 99 39.2

l. to Nifty 6.8 93 32.7

Current 1QFY14 4QFY13

omoters 36.46 47.17 47.41

32.59 26.79 27.34

I 15.13 15.83 16

hers 15.82 10.21 9.25

Financials

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 4771.5 4103.2 16.3 3523.7 35.4

EBITDA 1110.85 864.5 28.5 756.9 46.8

PAT 718.2 686.3 4.6 455.9 57.5

EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.1% 220bps   21.5% 150bp

PAT Margin 15.1% 16.7% (160bps)   12.9% 220bp

evious Target Price 1875

Recently, following the footsteps of other larger giants such as TCS and Infy, Te

Mahindra revealed its earning story better than street expectations for 2QFY14. Sa

grew by 16.3% (QoQ) in INR term led by healthy growth across all segments, vertic

and geographies. In USD term, sales grew 4.7% (QoQ) better than all nearest pee

barring TCS. PAT was up by 4.7% (QoQ) adversely impacted by lower other income a

forex loss of Rs 26 Cr during the quarter. The company had forex gains of Rs 134 Cr

the June quarter.

fty

ange from Previous

pside 26%

erage Daily Volume 191827

"On a stronger footing.." 

ompany update

MP 1844

rget Price 2330

Broad-based performance with positive outlook, positive view retained;

The company remains confident on demand and expects client budgets to remain

the same levels in FY15E. It announced 2 large deals in the enterprise solutio

(previously Mahindra Satyam) and has a healthy deal pipeline.

arket Data

E Code 532755

SE Symbol TECHM

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

wk Range H/L 1872/895

42991

Win- Win on all geographies:   During the 2QFY14, winning trio was seen acro

geographies. US (contributes 33% on sales) grew by 8%, RoW (23% on sales) by 9.4

(QoQ). While Europe (contributes 44% on sales) was marginally up by 2.4%(QoQ) in U

term. Post earning management quoted for better outlook in Europe with grea

traction in Australia and Africa in near term.

All-rounder across all verticals:   During the quarter, company reported 2.5% growth

Telecom, 4.7% growth in manufacturing, media including entertainment, BFSI a

others each in USD term. While Retail, Transport and Logistic snapped a larger grow

figure of 22% sequentially. The company is focusing on BFSI, manufacturing a

telecom.

BT on Slide:  The management said revenues from British Telecom (BT) continued

slide. Those were 12% of consolidated revenues in the June quarter. It believes revenu

from BT will be under pressure.year forward P/E-x

Rs, Cro

(Source: Company/Eastwi

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Post merger with Satyam, strong demand traction in Telecom (Non BT) has improv

and company's attractive deal win ratios make us optimistic view on the stock. A

CMP of Rs 1691, relatively the stock is trading at a fair valuation, 12.8x of FY1

earnings (at USD of Rs60/59.5 for FY14E/FY15E). We maintain   “BUY” on the stock wa price target of Rs 2330 (revised from Rs 1875).

are Holding Pattern-%

6274

ock Performance

View and Valuation: Recently, company’s  management explained its 6-pillar strate

i.e., selling 6 service lines of IT, infr- management, network management, secur

services, value added services and services such as analytics to telcos. Currently, non

services contribute 33% of telecom revenues for the company. Further, it is focusing

segments that are growing faster such as platforms, enterprise, mobility and NMA

(networks, mobility, analytics, cloud and security).

Green flag on Margin front: EBITDA margin expanded 222 basis points sequentially

23.3% aided by a weaker rupee. Despite sweet flavor on margin front, management

still cautious for coming quarter due to Furloughs .

"BUY"23rd Dec' 13

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Tech Mahindra.

(Source: Company/Eastwi

perating Metrics

nancials

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

ient contribution to revenue-% 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1

ustomer Active 484.00 475.00 475.00 516.00 567.00 576.00

op 10 clients 50.0% 51.0% 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% 48.0%

op 5 clients 40.0% 41.0% 39.0% 37.0% 37.0% 36.0%op client 17.0% 14.0% 15.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0%

evenue mix - onsite/offshore (%)

nsite 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 51.0% 51.0%

ffshore 52.0% 52.0% 52.0% 52.0% 49.0% 49.0%

mployee Metrics

tilisation % 75.0% 74.0% 76.0% 77.0% 76.0% 75.0%

ttrition % 17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.0%

s, Cr FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

et Sales(mn)-USD 1157 2633 3124.01 3592.61 4023.7

et Sales 11702.4 14332.0 18744.06 21376.04 24343.5

mployee Cost 6591.9 8099.5 10309.24 11756.82 13388.9peration and other expenses 2210.1 2287.3 3373.93 3847.69 4381.8

ubcontracting Cost 948.6 882.0 1405.80 1603.20 1947.4

otal Expenses 9750.6 11268.8 13683.17 15604.51 17770.7

BITDA 1951.8 3063.2 5060.90 5771.53 6572.7

epreciation 319.0 389.6 509.54 581.08 661.75

ther Income 501.3 212.2 281.16 213.76 243.44

xtra Ordinery Items 36.9 -160.1 -209.39 -238.79 -121.7

BIT 1632.80 2673.60 4551.36 5190.45 5911.0

nterest Cost 107.3 92.1 98.04 91.37 86.93

BT 2063.7 2633.6 4525.09 5074.05 5945.7

ax 228.9 647.9 1176.5 1319.3 1545.9

AT 1834.8 1985.7 3348.6 3754.8 4399.9

rowth-%

ales-USD 2.7% 127.6% 18.6% 15.0% 12.0%ales 13.8% 22.5% 30.8% 14.0% 13.9%

BITDA 11.9% 56.9% 65.2% 14.0% 13.9%

AT 11.9% 8.2% 68.6% 12.1% 17.2%

Margin -%

BITDA 16.7% 21.4% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%

BIT 14.0% 18.7% 24.3% 24.3% 24.3%

AT 15.7% 13.9% 17.9% 17.6% 18.1%

xpenses on Sales-%

mployee Cost 56.3% 56.5% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%

ubcontracting Cost 8.1% 6.2% 7.5% 7.5% 8.0%

peration and other expenses 18.9% 16.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%

ax rate 11.1% 24.6% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%

aluation

MP 652.5 1081.7 1844 1844 1844o of Share 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2

W 4815.8 5529.1 8741.77 12360.68 16624.6

PS 79.0 85.5 144.1 161.6 189.4

VPS 207.3 238.0 376.31 532.10 715.66

oE-% 38.1% 35.9% 38.3% 30.4% 26.5%

ividen Payout-% 3.2% 3.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1%

/BV 3.1 4.5 4.9 3.5 2.6

/E 8.3 12.7 12.79 11.41 9.74

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CMC

1M 1yr YTD

solute 15.0 29.2 54.5

l. to Nifty 15.4 24.6 37.1

Current 4QFY13 3QFY13

omoters   51.12   51.12   51.12

  23.32   21.84   19.87

  17.83   19.05   20.46

hers   7.73   7.99   8.55

Financials

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 560.75 486.61 15.2 458.64 22.3

EBITDA 88.41 77.04 14.8 76.59 15.4

PAT 67.3 53.12 26.7 49.4 36.2

EBITDA Margin 15.8% 15.8% - 16.7% (90bps)

PAT Margin 12.0% 10.9% 110bps 10.8% (120bps

"On track to deliver" 

MP 1510

rget Price 1690

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

are Holding Pattern-%

erage Daily Volume 20884

1560/1107

ompany update Buy

evious Target Price 1490

side 12%

ock Performance

year forward P/E

Rs, Cro

(Source: Company/Eastwi

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Deal pipeline:   The deal pipeline is in line with the last year. It indicated that pursu

good number of deals in the Developed and as well emerging markets. Consideri

current sound demand environment across geographies (like US and Europe) a

verticals Company is more optimistic for clients acquisition and deal executions ahead

Now, CMC is focusing on new emerging segments like IMS (Infrastructu

Management Services), Cloud, Big data, Mobility and Analytics. Considering

impressive client as well as market response, company is expecting to quantify inrevenue. Its new and emerging projects like Mining Management System, GPS Syste

and Port & Cargo Management System would play a major role for generati

revenue.

View and Valuation: CMC expects the growth momentum to improve in the quarte

ahead and the revenue growth to be higher than the NASSCOM guidance in FY14. T

Company remains a strong with excellent earning visibility led by joint effort of mark

strategy by TCS (contributes 59% of sales) in its product and solutions. For a long-ter

prospect, we remain positive on the stock, taking its earning visibility and healt

earnings among the mid-cap IT space (over 25% CAGR in earnings over FY2013-15E).

a CMP of Rs 1510, stock trades at 14.9X FY14E earnings. We have "BUY" view on t

stock and we revise our target price from Rs1490 to Rs1690.

Steady Margin: During the quarter, EBITDA margin was almost unchanged at 15.8% dto wage hikes (70 bps), but also has positive impact from currency gain (170 bps) whi

were reinvested into the business. However, Management is still confident to mainta

the margin in a range of 15-16%.

fty 6167

4575

We believe, CMC will continue with its efforts to enhance revenue contribution of hig

margin System Integration and ITES segments. Further, its high focus on educati

space will also add margin in near term.

Considering recent healthy demand environment across the IT space with favorab

supply side scenario, we remain confident on the stock for better earning visibility a

stable margin picture. Still, we reiterate our positive stance on the long-term story

CMC due to its focus on high margin SI and ITES businesses.

For 2QFY14E earnings, CMC witnessed better Sales and PAT growth with 15% sal

growth driven by the strong growth from the System Integration (29%) coupled with t

good growth from the System Integration (24%) and ITES business (16%) sequentia

PAT grew by 27%(QoQ) because lower effective tax rate (from 34%, 1QFY14) to 20%

earning before tax) .

E Code 517326

E Symbol CMC

ange from Previous 13.4%

arket Data

wk Range H/L

"BUY"20th Dec' 13

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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CMC

ey facts from recent Concall

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwi

nancials;

CMC continues to target growth ahead of the overall IT industry; the company expects

grow faster than that in the current financial year

Expects operating Profit margin between 15 percent and 16 percent for FY14E,

The Capex expected to be Rs 190 crore (planned is around Rs 230 crore) for FY'14.Thepex will be financed by internal accruals.

Company’s hiring Plan; a net addition of 400-500 this year

Notably, it targets revenues of Rs 250-300 crore from Education and Training business

next two 3-4 years timeline.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

s, Cr   FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

et Sales   870.73 1084.40 1469.34 1927.87 2239.31 2600.4

urchases of stock-in-trade   99.35 99.28 145.40 188.56 201.54 234.04

mployee Cost   276.16 345.13 440.22 521.65 593.42 702.11

ubcontracting and outsourcing cost   173.56 262.35 446.11 679.73 794.96 923.15ther expenses   159.94 170.17 213.63 222.88 235.13 273.04

otal Expenses   709.01 876.93 1245.36 1612.82 1825.04 2132.3

BITDA   161.72 207.47 223.98 315.05 414.27 468.07

epreciation 9.85 10.46 21.37 23.20 41.95 60.69

ther Income 18.75 11.80 17.46 13.17 22.39 26.00

BIT   151.87 197.01 202.61 291.85 372.33 407.38

nterest Cost   3.17 0.22 0.02 0.18 0.2 0.25

BT   167.45 208.59 220.05 304.84 394.52 433.14

ax   24.23 32.42 68.59 76.76 86.79 99.62

AT   143.22 176.17 151.46 228.08 307.73 333.52

rowth-%

ales   -7.4% 24.5% 35.5% 31.2% 16.2% 16.1%

BITDA   27.7% 28.3% 8.0% 40.7% 31.5% 13.0%

AT   23.3% 23.0% -14.0% 50.6% 34.9% 8.4%

Margin -%

BITDA   18.6% 19.1% 15.2% 16.3% 18.5% 18.0%

BIT   17.4% 18.2% 13.8% 15.1% 16.6% 15.7%

AT   16.4% 16.2% 10.3% 11.8% 13.7% 12.8%

xpenses on Sales-%

mployee Cost   31.7% 31.8% 30.0% 27.1% 26.5% 27.0%

ubcontracting Cost   19.9% 24.2% 30.4% 35.3% 35.5% 35.5%

ax rate 14.5% 15.5% 31.2% 25.2% 22.0% 23.0%

aluation

MP   1340.0 2079.6 994.8 1410.0 1510 1510

o of Share   1.50 1.50 3.00 3.03 3.03 3.03W   510.68 654.02 772.19 946.26 1192.11 1454.9

PS   95.48 117.45 50.49 75.27 101.56 110.07

VPS   340.45 436.01 257.40 312.30 393.44 480.17

oE-%   28.0% 26.9% 19.6% 24.1% 25.8% 22.9%

ividen Payout ratio   18.6% 19.9% 23.2% 19.4% 20.1% 21.2%

/BV   3.94 4.77 3.86 4.51 3.84 2.78

/E   14.03 17.71 19.70 18.73 14.87 13.72

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BUY

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 2.8 4.4 1.4

el. to Nifty 0.1 -1.3 -14.6

Current 1QFY14 4QFY1

omoters   52.1 52.2 52.2

  15.8 14.9 14.0

I   12.5 12.5 13.3

hers   19.5 20.5 20.5

Financials   Rs, Cro

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 567 517 9.7 474 19.6

EBITDA 249 197 26.4 165 50.9

PAT 205 174 17.8 117 75.2

EBITDA Margin 43.9% 38.1%  580bps   34.8% 910bps

PAT Margin 36.2% 33.7% 250bps   24.7% 1150bp

hange from Previous -

SE Symbol

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ock Performance-%

hare Holding Pattern-%

kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

fty 6217

The company have one more business segment ‘Nutraceuticals’   relatively smaller a

newer as compared to other business segment can act as growth driver going forward. T

management of the company is quite optimistic for this business segment and has guid

that this business at 40-50% CAGR (albeit on a low base) over the next 2-3 years.

2QFY14 Results Update.

The company posted strong 2QFY4 results with net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up

19.7% YoY on the back of good growth coming from all business segments. The gene API grew by 18% YoY to Rs 261 Cr for the quarter and CRAMS business segment grew

20% YoY to Rs 271 Cr. The company derives almost 45-50% of revenues each fro

CRAMS and generic API business while rest comes from ‘Nutraceuticals’.ne Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwi

15631

verage Daily Volume 5.43

The operating EBITDA for the quarter came at Rs 250 Cr and OPM at 43.9 %. Compan

2QFY14 EBITDA margins were higher than 34.8% reported in Q2FY13 on account

higher gross margins, lower power cost and forex loss in Q2FY13.The RM cost as % of n

sales stands at 50% for the 2QFY14 while employee cost as % of net sales was 10 %.

Company is one of the few CRAMS (Contract Research and Manufacturing Service

players with a superior business mix comprising high-margin custom synthesis of AP

(Active Pharma Ingredients) and intermediates for innovator companies. The compa

collaborates with innovators throughout the product development cycle. P

commercialization, company is usually the key supplier of APIs and intermediates for the

products to the innovators. In 2012-13, the company added six products to its custo

synthesis portfolio.The CRAMS business which contributes nearly 45%- 50% of the total revenues have fro

Rs 560 Cr in 2009 to Rs 1000 Cr translating CAGR of 15 %.The Generic API busine

which contributes another 45-50 % to the total revenues is also well track after witnesome pressure in FY10.As on FY13 this segment contributed Rs 1029 Cr to the to

revenues and this segment to more revenues to the company in the light of upcom

patent cliff of US and new launches .

14%pside

DIVISLABGood Growth Ahead 

arget Price 1350

evious Target Price -

esult UpdateMP 1186

About The Company :

Divi’s   Laboratories Limited is an India-based manufacturer of Active Pharmaceuti

Ingredients (APIs) and Intermediates. Divi is engaged in manufacture of generic AP

custom synthesis of active ingredients for innovator companies and other specia

chemicals like peptides and nutraceuticals.

Investment Rationale :

wk Range H/L 1189/905

 DIVISLAB

arket DataSE Code 532488

"BUY"19th Dec' 13

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

DIVISLAB

ontinued…

e net profits for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 205 Cr and NPM came at 36.2%.The net profits

so include forex gain of Rs 31 Cr. The company reports its forex gain under other 

come headings and forex loss under its other expenditure head. The tax rate for the

arter stands at 22%.

aphical Depiction

evenue Break Up: 2QFY14

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ompany has capitalized Fixed assets to the tune of Rs120 Cr for H1 FY14. The company

l commercialize DSN SEZ by the end of the year and the FDA inspection post that. The

w DSN SEZ contribution will start in Q1 FY15E and full benefits will fructify only from Q2

Y15E.The existing DSN blocks contributed Rs125 Cr revenues in Q2 FY14 as against

s70.8 Cr in Q1 FY14.

anagement Guidance

e management of the company after strong 2QFY14results expects that revenue to

ow by 15-20 % (15% guided earlier), with FY15E growth expected above 20%. The

anagement further indicated that this high level of OPM is not sustainable but reiterated

at 38% levels OPM is quite reachable . On Power shortage ,which declined the OPM in

QFY14 has been solved and will aid margin expansion going forward. The capex

idance stands at INR500-600m (apart from INR2b addition from CWIP) and tax rateidance remains between 23-24%.

ew & Valuation

he company is not only the most profitable company in the CRAMS space, but also

atures among the most profitable companies in the Indian healthcare sector with EBIDTA

argin of 35-40% backed by its strong chemistry skills and custom synthesis presence.The

ock is currently trading at CMP of Rs 1186, strong 2QFY14 results ,optimistic

anagement guidance and better business model in comparison to its peers makes us

nfident for the stock. We are positive for the stock and recommend BUY with

rget price of Rs 1350.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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DIVISLAB

les and PAT Trend (Rs)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Net sales growing to Rs 566 Cr up by 19.YoY on the back of good growth coming fr

all business segments.

2QFY14 EBITDA margins were higher th

34.8% reported in Q2FY13 on account

higher gross margins, lower power cost a

forex loss in Q2FY13.

PM %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

PM %

The 2QFY14 PAT also include forex gain of

31 Cr. The company reports its forex g

under other income headings and forex l

under its other expenditure head.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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AXIS BANK

1286

13251247

3

6.3

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 12.9 -5.2 -5.2

el.to Nifty 12.6 -10.9 -10.9

Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

omoters 33.9 33.9 33.5

I 40.7 4094.0 39.6I 8.8 8.5 10.0

hers 16.6 16.6 17.0

Financials   Rs, Cr 

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 6566 8026 9666 12620 14710

Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19715 21804

PPP 6377 7413 9303 11238 12429

Net Profit 3340 4224 5179 6343 6977

EPS 81.4 102.2 110.7 135.2 149.1

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ock Performance

verage Daily Volume

Sequentially stable asset quality help to make lower provision

On asset quality front, Axis bank reported 10 bps deterioration in GNPA

sequential basis to 1.4%. In absolute term GNPA increased by 10% QoQ a

provision increased by 12% QoQ. This led net NPA increased by 6% sequentially.

percentage term NPA stood at 0.4%, flat on QoQ basis. Provision coverage ra

(without technical write off) was improved by 100 bps to 69.3% and PCR at technic

write off was 89%. During quarter bank made loan loss provision of Rs.687 cr vers

Rs.712 cr in 1QFY14 and Rs.509 cr in 2QFY13. On sequential basis risky seclike power and infrastructure exposure remain flat at 12.64% from 12.67%

1QFY14.

Declined in cost income ratio led robust growth in operating profit

Operating expenses increased by 12.1% YoY to Rs.1953 cr in which employee co

and other operating cost increased by 11.4% and 12.5% respectively. Cost incom

ratio declined by 440 bps to 41.5% from 44.9% in 2QFY13. Employee cost and oth

operating cost as a percentage of total assets remain flat at 0.2% and 0.4

respectively. With the support of healthy NII, fee income and improvement of coincome, operating profit grew by 29% YoY and -3.3% in QoQ to Rs.2750

Sequential declined of operating profit was due to gain of treasury income

1QFY14 which was absent in 2QFY14.

During 2QFY14, Axis bank reported NII growth of 26.2% YoY largely due to 50 b

YoY improvement of margin and 577 bps YoY increased of credit deposits ratio a

17% increased in loan growth. Axis bank’s interest earnings assets increased

20% YoY whereas interest bearing liabilities increased by 13% YoY. Total reven

of the bank grew by 21.3% YoY to Rs.4703 cr. Non- interest income register

growth of 14% YoY to Rs.1766 cr.

hange from Previous

xis Bank Vs Nifty

hare Holding Pattern-%

2066127

fty 6217

39764

1549/763

SE Symbol AXISBANK

2wk Range H/L

Healthy NII growth o n the back of m argin improvem ent and loan growth 

ompany Update NEUTRAL

MP

arget Price

Ax is bank is tradi ng at 1.6 tim es of one year forw ard boo k whic h we believ

that it is high er sid e of our bear cas e valu ation ban d. We hav e neith er see

valuat ion band expansion nor did earnings lead price performanc e. Axi s ban

has sig nif ican t expos ure in infrastru cture and po wer (12.64% in 2QFY14) a

com pare to its peer group. Ass et qual ity pressure may persists in com in

quar ters which rest r ic t   bank’s valuat ion m ult iple in th e range of 1.4 to 1

tim es of bo ok in our view. We adv ice our inves tor s to bo ok part profit at th

curren t level. Our valuat ion mult iples are based upon   bank’s present grow

pa rameter s , be tt er than expec ted pe rf o rmance and v i s ib i li ty o f RO

improv ement wi l l expand valuat ion and mult ip les.

evious Target Price

arket Data

pside

SE Code 532215

"NEUTRAL "19th Dec, 2013

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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AXIS BANK

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

uring quarter bank reported 7 bps QoQ declined in NIM to 3.79% led by 500 bps

quentially declined of credit deposits ratio and almost flat of loan yield on QoQ basis.

oan yield during the quarter was 10.5% and cost of deposits declined from 7.4% to

1% sequentially.

aluation & View

ealthy NII growth and controlled CI ratio along with stable margin help to boost

p profit

ith the support of healthy NII growth and controlled operating expenses led net profit of 

6% YoY to Rs.1362 cr from Rs.1081 cr. Consequently ROA improved by 12 bps to 1.6%

nd ROE declined to 15.3% from 17.5% in 2QFY13 largely due to operating leveraging.

odest deposits growth and strong traction in loan growth

n business growth parameters, bank’s total business grew by 12% YoY to Rs.4567 bn

against Rs.4077 bn. Deposits grew by moderate pace with 8% YoY while current

eposits and saving deposits grew by 9% and 18% respectively taking overall CASA ratio

42.9%. Bank’s strategy to focus on retail deposits seem well is shaping as share of 

tail deposits in term deposits increased continuously to 45.2% from 40.3% in21QFY13.

oan grew by 17% YoY to Rs.20130 bn. Incremental loan growth came from retail

vance and SME segment. Share of retail loan increased to 30.2% of overall loan from

5.7% in 2QFY13. Bank’s has decreased in share of risky sector (Power & Infrastructure)

xposure to 12.64% from 13.63% in 2QFY13. Credit deposits ratio improved by 577 bps

oY to 78.8% implying best utilization of excess liquidity in balance sheet.

equential declined of margin owing to flat loan yield

xis bank delivered good set of numbers during quarter but exposure to stress sector 

main at 12%+ level. Moreover Axis bank has higher exposure in small, medium

nterprises and infra segment in comparison to peers. In challenging macro environment

nd tight liquidity situation, Axis bank is more vulnerable among peers. At the current

ce of Rs.1286, stock is trading at 1.6 times of one year forward book which is upper 

de of bear case valuation band. We advice book part profit at current level. We value

ank at multiple of 1.4 to 1.6 times of one year forward book which implies Rs. price

nge of Rs.1247 to Rs.1325.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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AXIS BANK

Source: Eastwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

uarterly Result 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr

erest/discount on advances / bills 5394 5189 4736   13.9 4.0

come on investments 2143 2015 1897   13.0 6.3

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 35 34 22  58.9 2.6

hers 37 39 32   14.9 -5.5

tal Interest Income 7609 7278 6687   13.8 4.6

e Income 1432 1317 1343   6.6 8.7  

ading Income 5 440 207   -97.6 -98.9

scellaneous Income 329 24 0   - 1270.2

hers Income 1766 1781 1551   13.9 -0.9

tal Income 9375 9059 8238   13.8 3.5

erest Expended 4672 4413 4360   7.2 5.9

2937 2865 2327   26.2 2.5

her Income 1766 1781 1551   13.9 -0.9

tal Income 4703 4647 3877   21.3 1.2

mployee 644 643 578   11.4 0.1

her Expenses 1309 1160 1164   12.5 12.9

erating Expenses 1953 1803 1742   12.1 8.3

P( Rs Cr) 2750 2844 2136   28.8 -3.3

ovisions 687 712 509   35.0 -3.5

T 2062 2131 1626   26.8 -3.2

x 700 722 545   28.4 -3.1

t Profit 1362 1409 1081   26.0 -3.3

lance Sheet Date ( Rs Bn)

t Worth 362 349 252   43.6 3.7  

posits 2554 2384 2356   8.4 7.1

an 2013 1982 1721   16.9 1.6

set qualtiy( Rs Cr)

NPA 2734 2490 2191   24.8 9.8

A 838 790 654   28.1 6.1

GNPA 1.4 1.3 1.3

NPA 0.4 0.4 0.4

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NANCIALS & ASSUPTION

AXIS BANK

Source: Eastwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

ncome Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

terest Income 15155 21995 27183 33243 38426

terest Expense 8589 13969 17516 20622 23716II 6566 8026 9666 12620 14710

hange (%) 31.2 22.2 20.4 30.6 16.6

on Interest Income 4671 5487 6551 7095 7095

otal Income 11238 13513 16217 19715 21804

hange (%) 25.3 20.2 20.0 21.6 10.6

perating Expenses 4860 6100 6914 8478 9376

re Provision Profits 6377 7413 9303 11238 12429

hange (%) 22.4 16.2 25.5 20.8 10.6

rovisions 3033 3189 4124 2176 2461

BT 3345 4224 5179 9062 9967AT 3340 4224 5179 6343 6977

hange (%) 34.8 26.5 22.6 22.5 10.0

alance Sheet

eposits( Rs Cr) 189166 219988 252614 290506 334081

hange (%) 34 16 15 15 15

f which CASA Dep 77758 91412 112100 124917 143655

hange (%) 18 18 23 11 15

orrowings( Rs Cr) 26268 34072 43951 51266 58956

vestments( Rs Cr) 71788 92921 113738 129873 149354

oans( Rs Cr) 142408 169760 196966 228481 265037

hange (%) 36 19 16 16 16

aluation

ook Value 460 549 708 828 957

MP 1404 1146 1304 1288 1288

/BV 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3

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Godrej Consumer Product

840

960725

14%

32%

▪  Godrej Consumer aims to grow 10 times in the next 10 years.

Key updates;

1M 1yr YTD

solute -2.1 17.6 27.0

l. to Nifty -4.8 11.5 8.8

Current 1QFY14 4QFY13

omoters 63.3 63.3 63.5

28.7 28.3 28.2

1.2 1.2 1.2

hers 6.8 7.2 7.1

Financials Rs,

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 1961.7 1724.9 13.7% 1600.32 22.6%

EBITDA 299.8 225.4 33.0% 248.96 20.4%

PAT 195 133 46.6% 159.31 22.4%

EBITDA Margin 15.3% 13.1% 210bps 15.6% (30bps

PAT Margin 9.9% 7.7% 220bps 10.0% (10bps

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwin

ock Performance

ange from Previous

yr Forward P/B

are Holding Pattern-%

120012

fty 6217

erage Daily Volume

28593

977/693

E Code 532424

SE Symbol

▪ Godrej Consumer's management is hopeful of seeing an uptick in the urban dema

and the rural demand is expected to be strong due to good harvest. We expect 20-22(YoY) sales growth for 3QFY14.

" Strategy Shining" 

MP

pside

Key fac ts f rom recent Management Comments : 

rget Price

ompany update BUY

evious Target Price

▪ The company does not see company’s margins coming under pressure going ahea

due to heavy investments it has made in advertisements. We expect 15-15.5% EBIT

margin for FY14E and 15.5-16% for FY15E.

GODREJCP

arket Data

wk Range H/L

View and Valuations: Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticid

business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in

international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Desp

some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus and currency risk, w

remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales growth with strong PAT growth for FY1

& beyond. At a CMP of Rs840, stock trades at 5.7x FY15E P/BV. We retain BUY with

price target of Rs 960.

▪ On International revenue front, Godrej Consumer could see some threads in cert

areas especially Indonesia (18% of sales) and Nigeria (13% of sales), Indonesia is goi

into election next year and in Nigeria, there have been wage hikes.

Demand Pickup scenario:   On demand side scenario, we expect that the stro

agricultural season leading to strong rural GDP growth would support to impro

demand environment very soon. Considering recent GDP growth and Current Accou

Deficit (CAD) numbers, we are expecting that the economy is moving to track and urb

demand will see some picking up.

Strong focus on driving growth with 10x10 strategy: Its strong focus on driving grow

in the domestic and international market by expansion of products and distribut

reach, we expect strong earning in near future. With launching new products

domestic as well as international mkt, Godrej CP will explore organic & inorganic grow

Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in

yrs.

Products strategy: The company continues to gain and enjoy market leader ship positi

across all three formats. The company is driving increase in penetration with launch

"Goodknight Advanced colour play". The company has launched Goodknight aerosol acoil in Nigeria.

Recent developments: The Company has entered into an agreement on Oct 7, 2013,

acquire a 30% stake in Bhabani Blunt Hair Dressing Pvt Ltd, a premier hair sa

company with one of the strongest consumer franchises in this space.

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

"BUY"19th Dec' 13

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Godrej Consumer Product

egionwise margin:

uaterly snapshot:

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

nancials and Valuation

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

trly, 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1

ales Gr(YoY) 23% 36% 31% 39% 35% 26% 30% 23.9% 22.6%

AT Gr(YoY) -2.6% 68.3% 36.0% -45.5% 24.7% 3.1% 58.7% 1.8% 22.4%

BITDA Margin 18.0% 20.1% 18.9% 14.5% 15.6% 16.8% 16.2% 13.1% 15.3%

AT Margin 12.0% 13.9% 13.5% 12.1% 10.8% 11.3% 13.3% 9.0% 10.9%

egions 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1

dia 18.9% 20.4% 20.2% 15.1% 17.6% 18% 16.7% 15.8% 18.9%

donesia 19.4% 20.6% 20.7% 18% 19% 20% 19% 15% 17%

frica 26.0% 31% 19.3% 19% 16% 20% 7% 13% 14%

tin America 7.4% 9% 16.3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 3% 7%

urope 11% 5% 10.5% 13% 9% 5% 13% 9% 10%

s, in Cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

ales 2041.2 3693.6 4866.16 6390.79 7823.32 9198.58

ther Operating Income 2.5 28.11 45.93 16.58 20.30 23.86

otal income from operations 2043.7 3721.71 4912.09 6407.37 7843.62 9222.44

M Cost 619.59 1458.28 2174.67 2640.31 3176.67 3781.20

urchases of stock-in-trade 367.16 294.12 356.11 451.03 552.13 649.19

WIP -40.45 -45.22 -212.26 -118.06 -183.50 -224.07

mployee Cost 151.81 284.51 391.91 590.68 723.08 850.19

d Spend 132.8 352.85 449.86 660.35 902.02 1014.47

ther expenses 402.98 695.96 850.47 1196.46 1459.0 1689.7

otal expenses 1633.89 3040.5 4010.76 5420.77 6629.4 7760.7

BITDA 409.81 681.21 901.33 986.6 1214.2 1461.7

epreciation and Amortisation 23.6 49.92 64.44 77 94.3 102.1

ther Income 44.81 24.13 6.07 67.78 47.8 56.2

xceptional Item 0 41.14 200.17 96.12 78.4 92.2

BIT 386.21 631.29 836.89 909.6 1119.9 1359.6

nterest 11.1 43.64 65.84 77.45 61.1 53.2

BT 419.92 652.92 977.29 996.05 1185.1 1454.9

ax Exp 80.33 138.21 226.05 179.18 225.17 290.98

AT 339.59 514.71 751.24 816.87 959.9 1163.9

rowth-% (YoY)

ales 46.3% 81.0% 31.7% 31.3% 22.4% 17.6%

BITDA 95.2% 66.2% 32.3% 9.5% 23.1% 20.4%

AT 97.0% 51.6% 46.0% 8.7% 17.5% 21.3%

xpenses on Sales-%

M Cost 30.3% 39.2% 44.3% 41.2% 40.5% 41.0%

d Spend 6.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 11.0%

mployee Cost 7.4% 7.6% 8.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2%

ther expenses 19.7% 18.7% 17.3% 18.7% 18.6% 18.3%

ax rate 19.1% 21.2% 23.1% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%

Margin-%

BITDA 20.1% 18.3% 18.3% 15.4% 15.5% 15.8%

BIT 18.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.2% 14.3% 14.7%

AT 16.6% 13.8% 15.3% 12.7% 12.2% 12.6%

aluation:MP 261.0 365.0 559.0 836.0 840.0 840.0

o of Share 30.8 32.4 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0

W 954.7 1725.2 2815.2 3313.0 4073.9 5038.8

PS 11.0 15.9 22.1 24.0 28.2 34.2

VPS 31.0 53.2 82.8 97.4 119.7 148.1

oE-% 35.6% 29.8% 26.7% 24.7% 23.6% 23.1%

iv- Payout-% 30.6% 38.3% 22.6% 23.0% 20.7% 17.1%

/BV 8.4 6.9 6.8 8.6 7.0 5.7

/E 23.7 23.0 25.3 34.8 29.8 24.6

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BANK OF INDIA

206

235-

14

-

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -14.5 -32.2 -32.2

el.to Nifty -13.7 -37.1 -37.1

Current 1QFY14 4QFY1

omoters 64.1 64.1 64.1

I 13.2 13.6 13.5

I 15.3 15.6 16.3

hers 7.4 6.7 6.0

Financials   Rs, Cr 

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 7878 8313 9024 12110 11804

Total Income 10519 11635 12790 16672 16366

PPP 5398 6694 7458 9670 9492

Net Profit 2542 2678 2749 3533 3269

EPS 46.5 46.7 47.9 61.6 57.0

MP

evious Target Price

pside

hange from Previous

ANKINDIA Vs Nifty

hare Holding Pattern-%

2271804

fty

SE Symbol BANKINDIA

Most of banks especially PSUs are beaten down by the market on account of slow

economic growth and stress in asset quality. But Bank of India has witness

improvement in asset quality in 2QFY14 as fresh slippages were down by 26sequentially and 46% Year-on-year basis. Moreover bank reported reduction to t

tune of Rs.1009 cr versus Rs.1338 cr in 1QFY14. Most of reduction was due

higher recovery and up-gradation rather than write-off. Write-off came down sharp

from Rs.598 cr 1QFY14 to Rs.120 cr in 2QFY14.

Inch up restructure guidance in 3QFY14

Shown Improving sign of asset quality with higher recovery and up-gradati

rather than write-off 

verage Daily Volume

12260

arket Data

arget Price

Despite of improv ing fund amental from past two quarters, Bank of India

tradi ng at 0.5 tim es of on e year forw ard boo k whi ch is the lowes t level in o

valuat ion param eters. We believe that current level is attract ive entry poi nt fthe investor wi th t ime horizon more than one year. With the capital infusion

Rs.1000 cr by GoI and imp rov ing sig n of asset quality wo uld re-rate the sto c

in our view as i t p reviously w itnessed i .e. 0.8 to 1.2 t imes of book. Th

manag ement has guid ed fresh slippage of about Rs.1500 cr and restructu re

to the tun e of Rs.1000-1200 cr in 3QFY14 wh ich i s in line wit h 2QFY14. W

recomm end buy with pr ice target of Rs. 235 

ompany Update BUY

393/126

SE Code 532149

2wk Range H/L

6139

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ock Performance

Capital infusion by GoI raise CAR ratio to 8.1% from 7.75%

Bank has lower CAR to 7.75% at the end of 2QFY14 according to Basel 3 nor

Now Bank of India has approved to initiate process to raise further capital for iss

of 4.63cr Equity Shares to GoI on Preferential basis at a price of Rs. 215.70 p

share. This capital infusion is taking CAR ratio to 8.1% and government holding ri

to 66.7% from 64.1%. Capital infusion to the tune of Rs.1000 cr diluting our FY14E

book value by 40 bps.

 As far as restructure loan are concern, bank’s total restructure loan was about 5%

total loan asset and bank’s management expects Rs.1000-1200 cr of restructure

December quarter. In 2QFY14, bank sold about Rs.370 cr of bad loan to Ass

Reconstruction Company (ARC) for recovery and during quarters its plan to s

about Rs.500 cr of bad loan to ARC.

Sequentially improving PCR provide cushion on stress asset

Despite of stable asset quality and lower slippage, Bank of India provided 24% mo

provision in sequential basis which improved its provision coverage ratio(Witho

technical write off) to 63.3% from 61% in preceding quarter same year. High

provision would provide cushion on stress asset without hurting profit going further.

"BUY"18th Dec, 2013

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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BANK OF INDIA

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

arterly Result 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr

erest/discount on advances / bills 6631 6190 5881   12.8 7.1

ome on investments 2129 1885 1835   16.0 12.9

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 479 465 289   65.6 2.9

hers 0 0 0   42.9 36.4

tal Interest Income 9239 8541 8005   15.4 8.2

hers Income 1100 1181 894   23.1 -6.8

tal Income 10340 9722 8900   16.2 6.4

erest on deposits 5966 5401 5154   15.8 10.5

erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 414 296 536   -22.8 40.0

hers 333 308 119   179.8 8.2

erest Expended 6712 6004 5810   15.5 11.8

2527 2537 2196   15.1 -0.4

her Income 1100 1181 894   23.1 -6.8

tal Income 3627 3718 3090   17.4 -2.4

ployee 897 963 700   28.2 -6.8

her Expenses 628 575 536  17.1 9.3

erating Expenses 1525 1537 1236   23.4 -0.8

P( Rs Cr) 2102 2180 1854   13.4 -3.6

ovisions 1232 695 1552   -20.6 77.4

t Profit 622 964 302   106.0 -35.5

ance Sheet Data

uity Capital 597 575 575   3.9 3.9

serve & Surplus 25,686 21,774 21,774   18.0 18.0

posits 432,282 332,695 332,695   29.9 29.9

rrowings 41,751 29,434 29,434   41.8 41.8

her liabilities and provisions 12,727 11,262 11,262   13.0 13.0

tal Liability 513,042 395,739 395,739   29.6 29.6

sh in hand 24,621 17,080 17,080   44.2 44.2

sh and balances with reserve bank of india 34,658 19,198 19,198   80.5 80.5

estment 107,413 90,147 90,147   19.2 19.2

vance 332,190 256,148 256,148   29.7 29.7  

ed Assets 2,957 2,839 2,839   4.2 4.2

hers Assets 11,203 10,327 10,327   8.5 8.5

tal Assets 513,042 395,739 395,739   29.6 29.6

set Quality

PA 9873 8765 8898   11.0 12.6

A 6156 5947.3 5,228   17.7 3.5

PA(%) 3.0 3.0 3.4A(%) 1.9 2.0 2.0

R(%) Without technical write off 37.6 32.1 41.2

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BANK OF INDIA

Source: Eastwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

nancials & Assuption 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

erest/discount on advances / bills 15570 20241 23139 29515 31171

come on investments 5195 7142 7261 8828 10152

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 798 834 1257 1889 1889

hers 295 264 251 1 1tal Interest Income 21858 28481 31909 40233 43213

hers Income 2642 3321 3766 4562 4562

tal Income 24500 31802 35675 44795 47775

erest on deposits 12218 17957 20238 25422 28709

erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 813 1145 1489 1419 1419

hers 950 1065 1158 1281 1281

erest Expended 13981 20167 22885 28123 31410

7878 8313 9024 12110 11804

her Income 2642 3321 3766 4562 4562

tal Income 10519 11635 12790 16672 16366

mployee 3492 3069 3131 4131 4055

her Expenses 1629 1871 2201 3965 3892erating Expenses 5121 4941 5332 7002 6874

P( Rs Cr) 5398 6694 7458 9670 9492

ovisions 2909 4016 4709 5254 5406

t Profit 2542 2678 2749 3533 3269

46.0 5.3 2.7 28.5 -7.5

y Balance Sheet Data

posits 299559 318216 381840 434075 503527

posits Growth(%) 30 6 20 14 16

rrowings 22021 32114 35368 36854 37953

rrowings Growth(%) -2 46 10 4 3

an 213708 248833 289367 347241 366720

an Growth(%) 26 16 16 20 6

vestment 86677 86754 94613 110351 126904

vestment Growth(%) 27 0 9 17 15

stwind Calculation

eld on Advances 7.3 8.1 8.0 8.5 8.5

eld on Investments 6.3 8.7 7.1 8.0 8.0

eld on Funds 6.5 7.8 7.7 8.4 8.4

st of deposits 4.1 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.6

st of Borrowings 8.0 6.9 6.8 7.5 7.5

st of fund 4.3 5.8 5.3 6.5 6.2

aluation

ok Value 322.7 365.3 416.9 469.4 510.4

BV 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4

E 10.3 7.7 6.3 3.8 4.1

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20

k Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice t

rnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely fo

ormation and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research

st wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, an

se are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions ke

mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will b

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherw

recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/messa