India Diesels Walsh
Transcript of India Diesels Walsh
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Michael P. WalshInternational Consultant
Chairman, Board of Directors, ICCTChennai, India
7 December, 2007
Outline Climate, Fuel Consumption, Urban Air Pollution Closely
Linked
Vehicles Are Important for Each
Many Different Policy Instruments Are Being Used
Must Select Policies/Measures that Provide Co-Benefits
or Ancillary Benefits; Not Trading One Problem for theOther
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Energy Industries
Manufacturing Industries and Construction
Transportation
Other Sectors
Fugitive Emissions0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1000 Tg CO2 Equivalent
1990
2004
Annex 1 Party Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in the Energy Sector
9%
-8%
24%
-4%
-17%
Energy Industries
Manufacturing Industries and Construction
Transportation
Other Sectors
Fugitive Emissions-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Change 1990-2004 (%)
Annex 1 Party Greenhouse GasEmissions in the Energy Sector
Transportation is Most Rapidly Growing Contributor!
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World primary energy consumption
BP Statistical Review of World Energy2007
Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate(%) by Region 2004 - 2030
In 2004,94 % of transportenergy use wasbased on fossil oil.
The share will onlyslightly decrease to93 % in 2030.
Source: IEA WEO 2006
0
1
2
3
4
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Worl
dOE
CD
OECD
Nort
hAme
rica
USA
OECD
Pac
ificJa
pan
OECD
Euro
pe
Europ
eanU
nion
Tran
sition
Eco
nomi
es
Russ
ia
Deve
loping
Cou
ntries
Deve
loping
Asia
China
India
Latin
Ame
rica
Braz
il
Midd
leEa
st
Afric
a
G
rowth(%p.a.)
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Looking To The Future Transport Growth isExpected to Continue Without Interventions
Final Energy Consumption by Sector 2004 / 2030
(World Reference Scenario)
Total: Annual Average Growth Rate2004/2030: 1.6 %
Transport: Annual Average GrowthRate 2004/2030: 1.8 %
Source: IEA WEO 2006
Industry
Industry
Transport
Transport
Residential,services andagriculture
Residential, services
and agriculture
Non-energy use
Non-energy use
02000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
2004
2030
Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Can Diesel Cars Be Part ofthe Solution? 20-30% Lower Fuel Consumption Than Comparable
Gasoline Fueled Vehicle (Maybe!)
Outstanding Performance
Much Cleaner Than in the Past
But Current Indian and European Standards Allow
Much Higher NOx than From Gasoline Cars
Much Higher PM than Gasoline Cars (Except Where Tax orOther Incentives Encourage Use of PM Filters)
Clean Diesel Technologies Exist But Are Only Requiredin the US and Japan to Date
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Bellagio Principles Design Programs & Policies That
Reduce Conventional, Toxic,Noise and Greenhouse Emissionsin Parallel
Treat Vehicles and Fuels As ASystem
New Vehicle Standards forGreenhouse Emissions &Conventional Pollutants Should BeFuel Neutral
Expect & Require BestTechnologies and FuelsWorldwide in Both
Industrialized and DevelopingCountries WWW.THEICCT.ORG
JanuaryMarch
MayJuly
SeptemberNovember
0
100
200
300
400
PM2.5
PM10
WHO PM2.5
WHO PM10
Source: Dr. SenguptaCPCB
Concentration of PM 2.5 & PM 10in 2005 Delhi (B.S.Z. Marg)
1
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS
MONITOR AT
BHADUR
SHAH ZAFAR
MARG (ITO),
NEW DELHI
PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS
MONITOR AT
BHADUR
SHAH ZAFAR
MARG (ITO),
NEW DELHI
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Valuesinug/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
RegisteredVehiclePopulationinMillions
Residential Industr ial Traffic Inte rsec tion Vehicle Population
Residential NA NA NA 120 139 127 131
Industrial NA NA NA 150 167 140 140Tra ffic Intersection 200 216 191 180 270 244 228
Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENTRESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIRAIRAIRAIR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Valuesinug/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
RegisteredVehiclePopulationinMillions
Residential Industr ial Traffic Inte rsec tion Vehicle Population
Residential 29 27 29 28.7 33 37.9 40
Industrial 35 34 34 29 35 36 42
Tra ffic Intersection 63 60 59 67 75 94 89
Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NOX) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Valuesinug/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
RegisteredVehiclePopulationinMillions
Residential Indus trial Tra ffic Intersec tion Vehicle Population
Residential 345 349 311 304 397 311 330
Industrial 363 361 439 354 442 349 339
Tra ffic Intersection 426 418 490 476 533 509 500
Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (SPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
0000
20202020
40404040
60606060
80808080
100100100100
120120120120
140140140140
160160160160
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
Concentration(g/m
3)
Res. Areas NAAQS
0000
20202020
40404040
60606060
80808080
100100100100120120120120
140140140140
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
YearYearYearYear
Concentration(g/
m3)
Concentration(g/m3)
Concentration(g/m3)
Concentration(g/
m3)
Res. Areas NAAQS
0000
20202020
40404040
60606060
80808080
100100100100
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
Co
ncentration(g/m3)
Res. Areas NAAQS
Delhi Mumbai
ChennaiKolkata
0000
20202020
40404040
60606060
80808080
100100100100
120120120120
140140140140
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
Concentration(g/m3)
Res. Areas NAAQS
Trends in Annual Average Concentration of RSPM
in residential areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata.
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Relative Pollutant Concentrations vs.
Distance from I-405 Freeway in Los Angeles(Zhu et al., 2002a)
Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem!
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Time (120 minutes)
Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1
HDD Delivery VanDiesel Charter Bus
ARB In-Vehicle Study
Real-Time Fine Particle Counts
(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)
Tota
lParticleCounts/cc
Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem (2)
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580
495
408
262
50
Mobikes Walking In Cars In Buses WHO Guideline
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
micrograms/cubic meter
Commuters Exposure to Particulate Matter and Carbon Monoxidein Hanoi, Vietnam: A Pilot Study
East West Center Working Paper No. 64, Nov 2006
PM10 Exposures in Hanoi
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Health Impacts of Air Pollution AreBroad and Life Threatening
Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects
HospitalizationHospitalization
Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis
PrematurePremature
DeathsDeaths
CancerCancer
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Increased Risk of PrematureMortality Due To 10g/m3 PM2.5
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
All Causes
Pulmonary
Lung Cancer
Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002
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OZONE AND PM CAUSE SERIOUS ADVERSE HEALTH
EFFECTS INCLUDING PREMATURE DEATH
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Blood Altered rheology
Increased coagulability
Translocated particles
Peripheral thrombosis
Reduced oxygen saturation
Systemic Inflammation
Oxidative Stress Increased CRP
Proinflammatory mediators
Leukocyte & platelet activation
PM Inhalation
Brain
Increased cerebrovascular
ischemia
Heart Altered cardiac
autonomic function
Increased dysrhythmic
susceptibility
Altered cardiac
repolarization
Increased myocardial
ischemia
Vasculature Atherosclerosis,
accelerated progression of and
destabilization of plaques
Endothelial dysfunction
Vasoconstriction and Hypertension
Lungs Inflammation
Oxidative stress
Accelerated progression
and exacerbation of COPD
Increased respiratory symptoms
Effected pulmonary reflexes
Reduced lung function
Multiple Mechanistic Pathways Have Complex Interactions And Interdependencies
Combustionproducts
Minerals
Salt
Diesel sootDiesel soot
Source: Umweltbundesamt, Wien
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Vast areas of snow in Antarctica melted in the summer of 2005Satellite data shows an area the size of California melted
NASA: This is the most significant thawing in 30 yearsMelting in several areas including high elevations and far inland
Scientific Consensus: Climate Change is Occurring & is Caused By Man
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PM And Black Carbon EmissionsImportant For Both Urban Air Pollution
and Global Climate Change WHO Estimates ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year
From All Sources Primarily Urban PM
Black Carbon A Potent Greenhouse Pollutant- GWP
Estimates Vary
Hansen et al 2000 for 20 Year
Jacobsen 800-1200
Delucchi CEF ~ 4700
Hotter Days Lead to HigherHotter Days Lead to HigherEmissions and More SmogEmissions and More Smog
Source: Air Resources Board, 2000
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Ozone(ppm)
Temperature (oF)
hLos AngelesOzone Levels(1995-1998))
h10 warmestyears of thelast century all
occurred withinthe last 15
years.
California Ozone Standard
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27Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Grams/Km
Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10
EU and US Light Duty Gasoline andEU and US Light Duty Gasoline andDiesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards
May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard
Clean Vehicle Technologies Are Already Entering The Marketplace
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Modern Diesel?Modern Diesel?
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Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsLow Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum Benefits
Sensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot FiltersSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters
2005 2008 2015 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
Millions
truck
bus
cars
MC-three
LCV
Source: Segment Y
Diesel Vehicle Population inIndia
India Must Act Rapidly As Vehicle Growth Is Intensifying All Diesel Vehicles!
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2005 2008 2015 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
Millions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% Diesel
Diesel
Gasoline
% Diesel
Source: Segment Y
Diesel Car Population in India
India Must Act Rapidly As Vehicle Growth Is Intensifying All Diesel Cars!
2007 20100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
EU
India
Metros
Gasoline Car NOx Limits
2007 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
EU
India
Metros
Diesel Car NOx Limits
Why Does India Continue To LagEurope?
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2007 20100
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12 EU India Metros
Diesel Car PM Limits
Why Does India Continue To LagEurope?
34Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Grams/Km
Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10
EU and US Light Duty Gasoline andEU and US Light Duty Gasoline andDiesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards
May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard
Why Does the EU Lag the US?
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Does it Make Environmental SenseTo Buy a New Diesel Car in
India..?
If replacing an Old Diesel Car,Yes
If Instead of A New Gasoline Car,No Unless
US Tier 2 or Euro 5 Standards ApplyULSD Available
2007 20100
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12 EU India Metros
Diesel Car PM Limits
Why Does India Continue To LagEurope?
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Tier 4 nonroad
Heavy-duty
highway
Tier 2 Light-duty
highway
$ Billion Annually in 2030
Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles
cost
benefitTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion
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Now That Clean Vehicle Technology
is Available Challenge #1: Get Advanced Technologies Introduced
Rapidly ForNew Vehicles Around the World
Challenge #2: Clean Up the Existing Legacy Fleet
Availability of Ultra Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical Step
Indian Automobile SectorIndian Automobile Sector
Private Vcl.
12.83%
CommercialVcl.
3.94%3-Wheelers
4.04%
2-Wheelers
79.19%67033Total
6674Others
475252-Wheelers
3488Goods Vehicles
727Buses
8619Cars/Jeeps/Taxis
Nos. inThousand
Category
67033Total
6674Others
475252-Wheelers
3488Goods Vehicles
727Buses
8619Cars/Jeeps/Taxis
Nos. inThousand
Category
Source: MoRT&H/2003-04 figures Source: SIAM/2005-06 figures
As of 2005:
2nd Largest Two-Wheeler Manufacturer in the World
Worlds largest Motorcycle Manufacturer is in India
2nd Largest Tractor Manufacturer in the World
5th Largest Commercial Vehicle Manufacturer in the World
3rd Largest Car Market in Asia
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Hong Kongs Approach 1/1/2006 New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards
1/1/2006 New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards
1/1/2007 Light Trucks Between 2.5-3.5 tons Meet Euro4 standards
10/1/2006 New standards will be Introduced for Trucksover 3.5 tons
ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required; Tax IncentiveIntroduced Dec 1 For 10 PPM Sulfur Limits
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411995 2000 20050
50
100
150
200
250
300
(tons/year)
PM Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
Thousands
Number of Buses
PM Buses
The Bottom Line: From 1995-2005,Fleetwide PM Reduced 97% While Fleet
Grew By 33%
As Part of An Overall Strategy, Retrofits and CNG Work
Conclusions Oil consumption, Climate Change and Urban Air
Pollution Are Very Serious Problems
Transportation is a Major Contributor To Each Problem
These Problems Are Closely Interrelated
A Wide Variety of Strategies/Policies Exist which Provide Co-Benefits or AncillaryBenefits
Fuel Efficiency or GHG or CO2 Emissions Standards
Transportation Improvements
Vehicle or Fuel Taxes
Policies Encouraging Diesel Vehicles Can Be Counterproductive Unless CoupledWith Stringent Fuel Neutral Emissions Standards
Seriously Hurt Urban Air Pollution
Undercut Climate Policy with Excess Black Carbon and NOx emissions
Low Sulfur Fuels (50 ppm or less) and Strong Government Policies Will BeRequired To Obtain Clean Diesels
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THANK YOU