The Future of Climate ScienceDr. Robert Bishop

World Resources Simulation CenterSan Diego, USA, 21st Sept 2010

Predicting future conditions on Earth

involves understanding many

complex non-linear interconnected systems

Indeed, Weather and Climate are only

the thin edge of the wedge!

Now is the time to focus on the

bigger picture!

WEATHER & CLIMATE

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTH SYSTEM

SOLAR SYSTEM

CIVILISATION

Our problem: we have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos

over the past 200 years!

• In Research• In Research Funding• In Publishing• In Peer-review• In Conferences • In University Faculties • In Government Departments

The 21st C: Integration vs. Dis-Integration

To view the Earth as a whole and take an Holistic Approach

• Seamless• Multi-scale (spectral, spatial & temporal)

• Multi-science (physical, chem, bio, socio-economic)

The New Grand Challenge

Nature is Seamless, Borderless & Integrated!

In the next 10 years …

• Climate models will learn to integrate all natural sciences – weather, climate, earth, environmental, helio & planetary sciences, etc

• Climate models will assimilate much more of our observational data – in situ, ocean, airborne, space based, etc

• Climate models will resolve fine-detailed relevant phenomenon – cloud microphysics, convection, vorticity, aerosols

• Supercomputing resources, cloud computing & international grids will all play their part, as will Google Earth, Wolfram Alpha & Wikis

• Natural Science & Socioeconomic models will integrate successfully

• Public-Private Partnerships will emerge as new key players

ICES: a sustained & dedicated facility with global focus

• Modeling• Algorithms• Parameterisation• Data Assimilation• Computing systems• Scientific Integration• Science and Socio-economic interaction • An instrument for policy guidance & decision support

ICES Resource Allocation

50% to next-generation model development

25% to global climate & earth systems

community support

25% to developing world

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

CLIMATE & WEATHER

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

ICES and Geoengineering

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

WEATHER & CLIMATE

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

•Climate Remediation

•CO2 Removal

•Solar Radiation Management

•Unintended Consequences

ICES and Disaster Risk Management

•Community Resilience

•Adaptation & Mitigation

•Planning & Relief

Strategies

•Precursor Signals

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

WEATHER & CLIMATE

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

Volcanic ash cloud disrupts European economy • Mantle-Crust-Glacier-Rivers-Oceans• Weather-Agriculture-Economy-Society• 150,000 flights cancelled, 15 million re-bookings

BP Oil Slick disrupts Gulf States economy• 87 days of continuous flow• 50km oil slick below the surface• 5 million barrels of oil spilled - largest spill in history

Extreme Rainfall – Northwest Pakistan

• Heaviest monsoon in 80 years• 20 million people displaced• 1700+ deaths

Record Heat Wave – Western Russia

• Highest temperatures in 130 years• Spontaneous fires – peat bogs, crops, forests• 70+ deaths from fire, 2000+ deaths from drowning

China - Gansu Landslide• Disruption from 47 hydro-electric projects • Massive deforestation - landslides• 1500+ deaths

Recent Flooding Disasters

August 2010 Gansu China 1500+ floods, landslides

August 2010 Kashmir 170+ flash floods

August 2010 Central Europe 15+ flash floods

July-Aug 2010 West Pakistan 1700+ heavy monsoons

June 2010 Southern France 25 flash floods

June 2010 Southern China 200+ floods, landslides

June 2010 Northern Brazil 100+ floods, landslides

June 2010 Provence, France 25 flash floods

June 2010 Poland 15 river flooding

April 2010 Brazil 200+ rain, mudslides

March 2010 Uganda 350+ rain, mudslides

Feb 2010 Xanthia, France 50+ tempest, sea walls

Aug 2005 Katrina, USA 1,800+ hurricane, levees

Other Major Natural Disasters September 2010 New Zealand 0 7.1 quake

July-August 2010 Russia 2000+ drought, fire, heat wave

June 2010 USA 10 38 tornadoes

April - June 2010 USA 11 BP oil rig spill

April - May 2010 Iceland - volcanic ash cloud

April 2010 China 2000+ 6.9 quake

Feb 2010 Chile 700+ 8.8 quake, tsunami

Jan 2010 Haiti 250,000+ 7.9 quake

April 2009 Italy 300+ 6.3 quake

Feb 2009 Australia 173 bushfires

May 2008 China 87,000+ 8.0 quake

Oct 2005 Kashmir 86,000+

7.6 quake

Dec 2004 Indonesia 225,000+ 9.1 quake, tsunami

Dec 2003 Iran 31,000+ 6.6 quake

Aug 2003 France 30,000+ heat wave

Yokohama Earth Simulator Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6

Dedicated Weather-Climate Systems(TAKEN FROM THE JUNE 2010 LIST OF TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)

Worldwide

Ranking

Organisation Country Peak

Teraflops Sustained

Teraflops Supplier

# 37 JAMSTEC JAPAN 131.07 122.40 NEC SX9

# 39 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90 IBM Power 575

# 40 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90 IBM Power 575

# 41 DKRZ GY 151.60 115.90 IBM Power 575

# 61 NAVO USA 117.14 90.84 CRAY XT5

# 69 NAVO USA 102.27 78.68 IBM Power 575

# 78 NCEP USA 93.85 73.06 IBM Power 575

# 79 NCEP USA 93.85 73.06 IBM Power 575

# 90 NCAR USA 76.40 59.68 IBM Power 575

# 94

IITM

INDIA

70.39

55.11

IBM Power 575

Proposed ICES Computing Resources

• Dedicated Massively Parallel High Performance Computing - 20 year transition from petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)- 1 million cores, 1 billion threads, dynamic resource allocation- co-designed hardware/software/applications/algorithms

• Exabyte Hierarchical Storage & Automatic File Migration• High-Res 3D interactive immersion & image analysis

- auditorium level viewing with remote access, holographics, augmented reality- scientist ‘in-the-loop’, cockpit environment, computational steering

• Physically near to low cost power & cooling- 20 megawatts (nuclear/hydro/solar), lake cooling, green design

• Supplemented by: - Cloud Computing, Grid Computing (public, private, hybrid)

- Google Earth, Wolfram Alpha, Wiki- Citizen Science Computing

The Complexity of Earth System Modeling

• Grid Size• Parameterisation• Algorithm development• Coupling, linkages & feedbacks• Representation of physical processes• Integration of the socio-economic processes• Initial & boundary condition determination• Uncertainty estimates & management • Statistical & ensemble methods• Hierarchy of models• Multi-models• Stochastics• Nextgen

Earth Data Challenges

Where ICES will play a role:• Data assimilation• Historical data re-analysis• Model output data storage• Model output data validation & verification

Where ICES depends on others:• Data access, meta-data, cataloging• Data quality control & harmonisation• Data availability (in situ, remote sensing)• Sparse data fill (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica)

ICES Organisation Structure

• Swiss based• Not-for-profit Foundation• Public-Private Partnership• Broad Scientific Participation • Inter-disciplinary Governance• Participation by Int’l Organisations• Experts Committee, Ethics Committee

Why Public-Private Partnership?

• Fast• Agile• Simple• Flexible• Responsive• Non-political• Independent• New sources of funding

Why Switzerland?• History of international humanitarianism• Global thinking, neutral, trusted country • Science literate, educational infrastructure• Proximity to global policy bodies:

UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF WHO, UNHCR, ICRC

WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU

• Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities

ICES Core Actor’s Network

• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)• European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)• European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES)• Group on Earth Observations (GEO Portal, GEO Grid)• UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction• National Disaster Management Agencies• World Resources Simulation Center• National Meteorology Bureaus• National Geological Surveys• Global Earthquake Model • National Climate Centres• National Ocean Centres• National Space Centres• Research Universities

ICES Top Priorities• Utilize all available worldwide observational data

• Support training of next generation ‘holistic thinkers’

• Drive new paradigm Earth System Models by integrating weather, climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences

• Improve process parameterisation and analysis • Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 10 of machines worldwide

• Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to national and regional centres worldwide

• Use International Orgs & NGOs as comms channel

ICES Foundation Members

Board members:Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer

Bankers: UBS Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers

Expert Committee:Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMO

Prof. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva

Director, Institute for Environmental Sciences

Prof. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng.

Ecole Polytechnique Federal Lausanne

Dr. Michael Rast Head of Programme Planning Office

Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes

European Space Agency

Prof. Jagadish Shukla President, Institute of Global Environment &

Society

Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.

• Back-up slides to follow

The Father of Modern Meteorology

Before the Age of ComputingIn 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British

mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers

to sit in tiers around the interior circumference of a giant globe.

1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations

Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Early 2010s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

Weather

Climate Change

ClimateVariability

Extending Weather & Climate Observations

Weather & Climate Communities(A Convergence of Methodologies)

• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days

ECMWF today: 5~10 days Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level

• Climate modeling: WCRP today: 100~1000 years

Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level

• The 10-year Challenge: Seasonal to inter-annual predictions

Global to regional to local forecastingCoarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolutionExtreme weather early warning

ICES in a Nutshell• Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates

weather, climate, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic sciences

• Next-generation modeling and simulation techniques• Assimilation of all available worldwide observational data• Technical support for national & regional climate centres• Teaching, training, capacity building• Decision support, communications• Dedicated supercomputing• Global networking• Visual paradigm

~200 professionals plus seconded experts