INCREASING THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF FOSSIL-FUEL CARBON EMISSIONS ESTIMATES FOR THE...
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Transcript of INCREASING THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF FOSSIL-FUEL CARBON EMISSIONS ESTIMATES FOR THE...
INCREASING THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF
FOSSIL-FUEL CARBON EMISSIONS ESTIMATES FOR THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
T. J. Blasing Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Christine Broniak, Oregon State University
Gregg Marland, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Sponsor: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological & Environmental Research
Improved temporal and spatial resolution of fossil-fuel carbon emissions to the atmosphere (as CO2) can improve the accuracy of carbon-cycle models.
Temporal resolution to accommodate annual (and daily) cycles in photosynthetic activity
Spatial resolution to capture atmospheric CO2 gradients downwind of large source areas (e.g., large cities and coal-fired power plants)
Previously, atmospheric emissions of fossil-fuel carbon had only been given on an annual basis.
USA totals from Marland, Boden & Andres onCDIAC website
•Finer scales not available for some countries
•Useful for comparing countries & tracking national emissions trends
•Updated through 2002
By 2009 meeting (for USA):
Temporal resolution will capture the daily cycle
Spatial resolution will capture CO2 gradients around large sources (e.g. cities, coal-fired power plants)
Data assimilation results need to be aggregated and checked against emissions estimated directly from fossil-fuel consumption.
For the USA, (~ 23% of global fossil fuel carbon emissions) we have increased the spatial and temporal resolution of fossil-fuel based emissions estimates.
Monthly values: 1981-2004
•Annual range ~ 20% of annual mean•Shape of annual pattern is changing.
USA monthly fossil-fuel carbon emissions
020406080
100120140160
Jan-
81
Jan-
83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
Em
issi
ons
(Tg)
Coal Oil Gas Total
Monthly carbon emissions from fossil-fuel combustion in the USA
0102030405060
Jan-
81
Jan-
83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
C em
issi
ons
(Tg)
Coal Oil Gas
Shape of annual pattern is changing• Since early 1980’s, annual range has shrunk by 4Tg • August-May difference had increased by 5 Tg• Population projections suggest these trends will continue
Average USA fossil-fuel carbon emissions
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month -- scaled for number of days in month
Em
iss
ion
s (
Tg
)
1981-1985 2000-2004
Monthly estimates of δ13C in fossil-fuel carbon emissions were also calculated
Monthly values of delta 13C in USA fossil-fuel carbon emissions
-31.5
-31.0
-30.5
-30.0
-29.5
-29.0
-28.5
-28.0
-27.5
Jan-
81Ja
n-82
Jan-
83Ja
n-84
Jan-
85Ja
n-86
Jan-
87Ja
n-88
Jan-
89Ja
n-90
Jan-
91Ja
n-92
Jan-
93Ja
n-94
Jan-
95Ja
n-96
Jan-
97Ja
n-98
Jan-
99Ja
n-00
Jan-
01Ja
n-02
Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Date
Delt
a 1
3 C (
per
mil
, fr
om
PD
B)
13C concentrations in atmospheric CO2 are declining as the fossil-fuel fraction increases.
Monthly values of delta 13C in USA fossil-fuel carbon emissions
-31.5
-31.0
-30.5
-30.0
-29.5
-29.0
-28.5
-28.0
-27.5
Jan-8
1Jan-8
2Jan-8
3Jan-8
4Jan-8
5Jan-8
6Jan-8
7Jan-8
8Jan-8
9Jan-9
0Jan-9
1Jan-9
2Jan-9
3Jan-9
4Jan-9
5Jan-9
6Jan-9
7Jan-9
8Jan-9
9Jan-0
0Jan-0
1Jan-0
2Jan-0
3Jan-0
4
Date
Delt
a 1
3 C (
per
mil
, fr
om
PD
B)
Mauna Loa data from Keeling, Bollenbacher and Whorf.
012345
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Total Coal Oil Gas
036912
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Total Coal Oil Gas
State-by-state per capita emissions(Mg/person) show effects of socio-political-economic factors
California New Mexico
Per capita carbon emissions by State
(Mg/person)
(Year 2000)
• Apportioning national value by population is inaccurate,
• Coal rich states with low populations show highest value,
• National plan is needed for carbon reductions,
• Spatial diversity has increased over time.
Spatial variance of per-capita carbon emissions has increased
0123456
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Sta
nd
ard
dev
iati
on
(M
g/p
erso
n)
TOTALCOALOILGAS
Standard deviations of per-capita carbon emissions over the lower 48 states
• Finer temporal/spatial breakdown of fossil-fuel carbon-emissions can improve accuracy of C-cycle models.
• Ultrafine scale emissions estimates based on data assimilation procedures should be aggregated and checked with “ground truth” estimates obtained from fossil-fuel consumption data.
• Greater resolution provides insights about dynamics and trends.
• The spatial breakdown of the data poses a challenge for trying to use per capita emissions as a measure of equity or to provide mitigation targets.