Incorporation of Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modelingtime Local Modeling

Tom HultquistTom HultquistScience & Operations OfficerScience & Operations Officer

NOAA/National Weather ServiceNOAA/National Weather ServiceMarquette, MIMarquette, MI

In a nutshell…In a nutshell…

Modeling system setupModeling system setup Distribution of model outputDistribution of model output Subjective impressions of model Subjective impressions of model

outputoutput Data deprivation experimentsData deprivation experiments Upcoming presentationsUpcoming presentations Future workFuture work

Modeling SystemModeling System FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS), FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS),

version 0-24-3 used for data assimilationversion 0-24-3 used for data assimilation Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR, Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR,

RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, etc…)etc…)

LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), with 1-hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess with 1-hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis used to initialize WRF-ARW)used to initialize WRF-ARW)

Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km files)files)

2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours 2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using operational RUC for initial first guess)operational RUC for initial first guess)

Modeling SystemModeling System

Runs performed on dual processor Runs performed on dual processor Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with 2 Gb RAM2 Gb RAM

Output from 30-hour simulations is Output from 30-hour simulations is available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run)run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run)

Output from intermediate (cycled) Output from intermediate (cycled) runs and analyses is not currently runs and analyses is not currently made availablemade available

Modeling SystemModeling System 15 km grid spacing15 km grid spacing 31 vertical layers31 vertical layers 50 mb model top50 mb model top KF convective KF convective

schemescheme Lin et al. Lin et al.

microphysicsmicrophysics RRTM longwaveRRTM longwave Goddard Goddard

shortwaveshortwave Noah land surface Noah land surface

modelmodel YSU PBLYSU PBL

Model OutputModel Output

Output from the simulations is Output from the simulations is currently available at:currently available at: http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.phhttp://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.ph

pp http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrfhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf

.php.php Output is in the form of RIP4 generated Output is in the form of RIP4 generated

PNG imagesPNG images Output is hourly, with looping possible Output is hourly, with looping possible

through javascriptthrough javascript A variety of basic fields can be displayed as A variety of basic fields can be displayed as

well as a few aviation specific fields and well as a few aviation specific fields and Skew-T diagrams for select locationsSkew-T diagrams for select locations

ImpressionsImpressions Unable to perform any meaning objective Unable to perform any meaning objective

verificationverification Model output used somewhat frequently by Model output used somewhat frequently by

local staff, but have received only minimal local staff, but have received only minimal feedback from other offices (general consensus feedback from other offices (general consensus from SOOs is that forecasters are already from SOOs is that forecasters are already overwhelmed with model output)overwhelmed with model output)

Has been most useful in forecasting lack of Has been most useful in forecasting lack of convection (when operational models indicated convection (when operational models indicated convection)convection)

Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Great LakesGreat Lakes

LAPS balance routine often seems to remove LAPS balance routine often seems to remove detail/information which could prove usefuldetail/information which could prove useful

Data DeprivationData Deprivation Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which

could prove useful for data deprivation experimentscould prove useful for data deprivation experiments Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so

only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus farfar

Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases will be re-run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR will be re-run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR data (which will be removed from one of the runs)data (which will be removed from one of the runs) February 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effectFebruary 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effect June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to

successfully capture overwhelming convective inhibitionsuccessfully capture overwhelming convective inhibition August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in

upper Michiganupper Michigan Currently working on first case (preliminary results Currently working on first case (preliminary results

encouraging with regard to low track and placement of encouraging with regard to low track and placement of frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to complete these re-runs by early Septembercomplete these re-runs by early September

Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be “saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence“saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence

Sharing of InformationSharing of Information

Will present a summary of this Will present a summary of this TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14thth Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology WorkshopOperational Meteorology Workshop

Some information (particularly case Some information (particularly case examples) to be presented at the examples) to be presented at the four NWS forecast offices in four NWS forecast offices in Michigan during this fall’s “traveling Michigan during this fall’s “traveling SOO show” in OctoberSOO show” in October

Future WorkFuture Work Try to get some additional cases identifiedTry to get some additional cases identified Possibly shrink domain and increase Possibly shrink domain and increase

resolution of experiment prior to winter to resolution of experiment prior to winter to better test performance during lake effect better test performance during lake effect snow eventssnow events

Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW and LAPS (should be able to get this done and LAPS (should be able to get this done soon)soon)

Cease local workstation Eta runs and Cease local workstation Eta runs and replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR to provide real-time comparison)to provide real-time comparison)