Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for Program...
Transcript of Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for Program...
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for
Program Efficiency in the Annual Energy Outlook
17th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting
April 3, 2019 | Boston, MA
Erin Boedecker, Team Lead
Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency Analysis
Overview• The U.S. Energy Outlook – highlights and major updates
• 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Impacts
• Accounting for energy efficiency programs in the National Energy Modeling
System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 20192
AEO2019 Buildings story lines• Residential and commercial delivered energy intensity declines in the
Reference case; increases in energy efficiency and distributed generation
contribute to this trend
– Total delivered commercial consumption grows at a rate of 0.5 % per year 2018-2050;
residential consumption shows no growth in the projections.
• Major updates include 2015 RECS and technology characterizations for
major end-use equipment in both sectors
• On-site electricity generation increases in the Reference case
– Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is projected to grow by 7.6% annually 2018-2050
– Commercial PV adoption is bolstered by the continuation of recent adoption trends
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projectionselectricity
natural gas
petroleum and other liquids
other
0.4%
CAGR 2018-2050
-0.3%
-1.6%
-0.8%
Residential delivered energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Commercial delivered energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Electricity continues to be the fastest growing energy source for
buildings use in AEO2019
Note: CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections0.5%
CAGR 2018-2050
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
electricity
natural gas
petroleum and other liquids
other
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Electricity prices (Reference case)
2018 cents per kilowatthour
2018
history projections
residential
commercial
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2018
history projections
Natural gas prices (Reference case)
2018 dollars per thousand cubic feet
residential
commercial
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
Residential and commercial electricity prices remain flat during the
projection period while natural gas prices rise
5
Residential housing units
millions
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Population growth is largely centered in the South, leading to greater
demand for space cooling
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New
England
East North
Central
West North
Central
South
Atlantic
East South
Central
West South
CentralMountain Pacific
Middle
Atlantic
2018 2050
Mobile
multifamily
single family
CENSUS DIVISIONS
New
England
Mid-Atlantic
South
Atlantic
East
South
Central
West
South
Central
East
North
Central
West
North
CentralMountain
Pacific
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
residential
AEO2019
AEO2018
AEO2019
AEO2018
commercial
2018
history projections
Buildings solar distributed generation capacity
gigawatts direct current
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
AEO2019 residential PV adoption is lower, based on more state data;
commercial adoption increases near-term due to lower installed costs
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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Residential Energy Consumption Survey
(RECS) and technology updates
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100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO2019
AEO2018
2018
history projections
//
0
Total households
millions
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
2015 RECS shows more households in 2015 than had been projected in
AEO2018 based on prior 2009 RECS and housing starts
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
9
Difference in 2015 housing stock (AEO2019-AEO2018)
thousands of housing units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
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Differences in households between 2015 RECS and AEO2018
projected households in 2015 vary by location and housing type
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
NewEngland
MiddleAtlantic
EastNorth
Central
WestNorth
Central
SouthAtlantic
EastSouth
Central
WestSouth
Central
Mountain Pacific U.S.Total
Single Family MultiFamily Mobile
CENSUS DIVISIONS
New
England
Mid-Atlantic
South
Atlantic
East
South
Central
West
South
Central
East
North
Central
West
North
CentralMountain
Pacific
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Electric Space Heating increased, Other decreased relative to 2009
RECS and prior rounds
Source: EIA, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys, Comparing the 2015 RECS with Previous RECS and Other Studies
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Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
The 2015 RECS includes an expanded list of end-use estimates
Source: EIA, 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Today in Energy published June 5, 2018
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
Delivered space heating energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered space cooling energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Space heating and space cooling consumption show the effects of
regional trends in sector growth
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
Delivered water heating energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered cooking energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Water heating and cooking are fueled by a variety of energy sources
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
Delivered refrigeration energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered freezer energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
AEO2019 refrigeration and freezing include an increased number of
efficiency options and updated shares by appliance configuration
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
15
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
Delivered clothes washer energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered clothes dryer energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Clothes washers represent expanded modeling to include both top- and
front-loading washer configurations
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2018
history projections
AEO2019
AEO2018
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO2019
AEO2018
2018
history projections
Delivered dishwasher energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
The dishwasher is the appliance that is most often not used according
to the 2015 RECS
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO2019
AEO2018
2018
history projections
Delivered lighting energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
The definition of General Service Lighting was expanded to cover
more technology types such as reflector lamps
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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Modeling energy efficiency programs
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Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
The NEMS residential and commercial demand modules project
energy consumption by census division, building type, and end use
20
Floorspaceand
housing stock by type and vintage
Energy service
demand for end-use energy
services in Btu out
Equipment technology
vintages selected–
each vintage with its own efficiency
Energy consumption
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
NEMS selects residential and commercial equipment based on cost and
performance characteristics and consumer choice assumptions
21
Technology characteristics input by vintage, census division,
building type
Choice parameters determine how
consumers prioritize
upfront costs relative to
operating costs over time
Technology shares
calculated by end use, census division,
building type
Rebates are constructed by census division, sector, and end
use as a percentage of installed cost• Reference sources for rebates include:
– Northeast Regional Energy Efficiency Database, Program, and Measure data (2018)
– Assessing Existing Energy Efficiency Program Activity (2016)
– ENERGY STAR Summary of Lighting Programs
– Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) program summaries
• Incentives are subtracted from installed cost
• With the exception of lighting, rebate incentives remain constant as a
percentage of installed cost for later equipment vintages
• For efficient technologies with insufficient data available, rebate levels are
assumed to equal 50% of the incremental cost of the efficient vintage
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For example, consider residential general service LED
lighting in 2018 in the East North Central division• Estimated installed cost for a general service LED bulb in 2018 is $4.00
• By 2014, most divisions reported average LED lighting rebates over 55% of
cost to ENERGY STAR; average and maximum rebate assumed to be 55%
• Assume 90% of utility customers will be offered LED lighting rebates
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April 3, 201923
Initial rebate = MIN (avg rebate*%w/incentives, max rebate)
= MIN ((55%*90%), 55%) = MIN (49.5%, 55%)
= 49.5% *$4.00 = $1.98
LED bulb cost with initial rebate = $4.00 - $1.98 = $2.02
Preliminary rebates have been adjusted to bring model
results closer to historical estimates• Rebates have been adjusted to loosely calibrate projected customer
incentive spending to spending reported on Form EIA-861 from 2013-2016
• Rebates and consumer choice parameters have been further adjusted to
loosely calibrate run results to historical technology shares reported by:
– the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
– DOE’s 2015 Lighting Market Characterization Report
– ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Data summary reports
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April 3, 201924
For our example of 2018 residential general service LED
lighting in the East North Central division (first adjustment)
• Model tests using initial rebates produced more total spending on incentives
in the East North Central division than reported on Form EIA-861
• All rebates for technologies in the census division were adjusted by a factor
of 0.8 to more closely reflect reported spending on incentives
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Adjusted rebate = MIN (avg rebate*%w/incentives*division factor, max rebate)
= MIN ((55%*90%*0.8), 55%) = MIN (39.6%, 55%)
= 39.6% *$4.00 = $1.58
Cost with adjusted rebate = $4.00 - $1.58 = $2.42
For our example of 2018 residential general service LED
lighting in the East North Central division (further adjustment)
• General service lighting results were compared with recent historical lamp
shipment indices from NEMA
– NEMA indices show faster adoption of LEDS
– rebates were adjusted to reflect more widespread use of incentives
– Consumer choice parameters were also modified to reflect the effects of energy efficiency
incentives on consumer purchase decisions
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Final rebate = MIN (avg rebate*avg(%w/incentives,100%)*division factor, max rebate)
= MIN ((55%*95%*0.8), 55%) = MIN (41.8%, 55%)
= 41.8% *$4.00 = $1.67
Cost with final rebate = $4.00 - $1.67 = $2.33
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
2018
AEO2019 residential lighting
percent of equipment stock
AEO2018 residential lighting
percent of equipment stock
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Energy efficiency incentives and expanded definition for standards
contribute to rapid near-term adoption of LED and CFL lighting
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
2018
AEO2019 residential lighting
percent of equipment stock
AEO2018 residential lighting
percent of equipment stock
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Energy efficiency incentives and expanded definition for standards
contribute to rapid near-term adoption of LED and CFL lighting
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
2018
LED
CFL
incandescent
linear fluorescent
Future EIA buildings energy efficiency work• Ongoing contract with the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP)
• Identification of new data sources
• Inclusion of measures targeting the building shell in energy efficiency
projections
• Sensors and controls market characterization
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For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state
Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/
Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/
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April 3, 201930
Buildings-related reports• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency:
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/
• Northeast Regional Energy Efficiency Database, Program, and Measure
data: Report on Results of Investigations:
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/efficiency/
• Assessing Existing Energy Efficiency Program Activity:
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/efficiencyprogram/
• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in
NEMS: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/miscelectric/
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RECS-related reports• Webinar: Highlights from the 2015 RECS: energy consumption, expenditures
and end-use modeling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7uBcSgqfI&feature=em-share_video_user&src=%E2%80%B9+Consumption++++++Residential+Energy+Consumption+Survey+%28RECS%29-f1
• Comparing the 2015 RECS with Previous RECS and Other Studies: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/comparison/
• Today in Energy EIA’s residential energy survey now includes estimates for more than 20 new end uses: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36412
• What’s New in How We Use Energy at Home: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/overview/index.php?src=%E2%80%B9%20Consumption%20%20%20%20%20%20Residential%20Energy%20Consumption%20Survey%20(RECS)-f3
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April 3, 201932
Supplemental material
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April 3, 201933
AEO2019 residential rebates (as percent of installed cost)
are applied to ENERGY STAR or better efficiency levels
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Note: Rebates are applied to all projection years unless noted otherwise
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
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Technology NE MATL ENC WNC SATL ESC WSC MTN PAC
Natural gas furnaces 18% 17% 9% 12% 7% 5% 10% 10% 13%
Natural gas boilers 12% 16% 8% 9% 6% 4% 8% 8% 10%
Distillate fuel oil furnaces 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Distillate fuel oil boilers 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Central Air Conditioners 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 3% 6% 6% 9%
Air-source heat pumps 28% 10% 21% 13% 12% 4% 8% 10% 19%
Ground-source heat pumps 16% 15% 5% 6% 5% 3% 8% 5% 8%
Clothes washers 14% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3% 5% 6% 9%
Natural gas water heaters 22% 5% 6% 11% 4% 2% 9% 10% 13%
Electric heat pump water heaters 33% 24% 11% 13% 12% 9% 13% 10% 29%
Refrigerators (top-mounted freezer) 14% 7% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 5% 9%
Refrigerators (side-mounted freezer) 8% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4%
Refrigerators (bottom-mounted freezer) 9% 7% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 5% 9%
CFLs (2015-2019) 16% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 6% 6% 8%
LEDs (2015-2019) 55% 52% 42% 52% 37% 26% 52% 47% 55%
CFLs & LEDs (2020-2050) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
AEO2019 commercial rebates (as percent of installed cost)
are applied to ENERGY STAR or better efficiency levels
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Note: 1Rebates for LED lamps and luminaires are eliminated for post-2019 and post-2029 vintages, respectively
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
35
Technology NE MATL ENC WNC SATL ESC WSC MTN PAC
Rooftop air-source heat pump 35% 10% 4% 16% 12% 3% 3% 7% 12%
Gas furnace 16% 13% 12% 10% 10% 5% 9% 12% 13%
Ground-source heat pump 22% 15% 5% 5% 5% 2% 4% 5% 5%
Rooftop AC (ENERGY STAR) 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4%
Rooftop AC (high) 28% 24% 18% 18% 18% 11% 18% 22% 24%
Wall/window/room AC 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 7% 7%
Res-type central AC 16% 14% 11% 11% 11% 6% 11% 13% 14%
Heat pump water heater 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 26% 40% 40% 40%
Scroll chiller 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 4% 7% 8% 9%
Screw chiller 16% 14% 10% 10% 10% 6% 10% 13% 14%
Reciprocating chiller 15% 13% 10% 10% 10% 6% 10% 12% 13%
Centrifugal chiller 25% 22% 17% 17% 17% 10% 17% 20% 22%
Natural gas water heater 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4%
CAV ventilation 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
VAV ventilation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
CFLs 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
LED PAR38, LED A Lamp1 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
LED Integrated Luminaire1 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Solar photovoltaic electricity generation by region: Reference case
billion kilowatthours
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
Solar generation grows for both utility- and small-scale sectors, but
growth rates vary across regions
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
36
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2020 2030 2040 2050
small-scale
utility-scale
2018
history projections
Texas Western interconnection Eastern interconnection
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO2019
AEO2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO2019
AEO2018
Residential solar photovoltaic capacity
gigawatts direct current
Commercial solar photovoltaic capacity
gigawatts direct current
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 2019
AEO2019 residential PV adoption is lower, based on more state data;
commercial adoption increases near-term due to lower installed costs
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018
37
2018
history projections
2018
history projections
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 2010 2030 2050
Electricity use growth rate
percent growth (three-year rolling average)
2018
history projections
High
Economic
Growth
Reference
Low
Economic
Growth 0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
199
0
201
8
205
0
199
0
201
8
205
0
199
0
201
8
205
0
199
0
201
8
205
0
Electricity use by end-use demand sector
billion kilowatthours
direct use
electricity
sales
residential industrial
commercial transportationSource: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019
Electricity demand grows slowly through 2050 in the Reference
case with increases occurring across all demand sectors
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 201938
U.S. census divisions
Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting
April 3, 201939
New
England
Mid-Atlantic
South
Atlantic
East
South
Central
West
South
Central
East
North
Central
West
North
CentralMountain
Pacific