Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change … · Incorporating climate,...
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Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population assessments
in Canada: A review and recommendationsPierre Pepin, Jackie King, Carrie Holt, Helen Gurney-
Smith, Nancy Shackell, Kevin Hedges, Alida BundyFisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC
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1. Decrease in ecosystem consideration from conceptual hypothesis (46%) stage to management advice (27%)
2. A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches for accounting for ecosystem considerations is required
3. Frequent re-evaluation of hypotheses and metrics is required under changing climate and ecosystem status.
4. Critical gap: Evaluation of the performance of management decisions with and without ecosystem considerations
5. Critical gap: Seasonal to decadal ocean projections at appropriate spatial scales are required
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Key messages
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1.5°C increase temperature
IPCC 2019 Keith Ellenbogen
Oceana
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management
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Countries with marine fisheries most vulnerable to climate change
Canada 54th of 147
Wikimedia commons
USA 142th
EU 79th - 147th
South Africa 130th
Australia 133rd
(Blasiak et al., 2017)
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Climate impactsTemperature, wind, turbulence
Circulation patterns
CO2 and O2: acidification
American Geosciences Institute
Beachsafe.org.au
Arterra/UIG/Getty
Sea ice
Ropos.com
MBARI
Trophic structure and spatial distribution
Benthic habitat
To what extent do Canadian fish stock assessments apply environmental information to models, assessments, or advice to Resource Management?
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Objective
• 178 recent stock advisory documents, by taxonomic group and region
• Evaluated general conceptual knowledge, methods for consideration, and whether advice was informed by environmental variables
• Climate (C) drivers: long-term (multi-year) variations and trends in regional or large-scale atmospheric processes
• Oceanographic (O) drivers: associated with climatic variability but include short-term and/or regional variability
• Ecological (E) drivers: broad range of ecosystem features, e.g., trophic interactions and habitat requirements
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Environmental Drivers
guardian
IPCC
El niño
Ropos.com
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Year of assessment
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
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Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Number
Q1 Broad-scale processes or hypothesesQ2 QuantitativelyQ3 Quality to explain trendsQ4 In advice to resource management
Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables
Results
Number of assessments
( )
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Results
Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables
46%
27%
21%
31%
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Results
Taxa Concept Quantitative Qualitative Advice Scale
Anadromous 0.58 0.65 0.46 0.58 0.65
Pelagic 0.50 0.14 0.43 0.36 0.33
Invertebrate 0.53 0.17 0.36 0.26 0.00
Groundfish 0.44 0.15 0.22 0.15
Mammal 0.21 0.11 0.21 0.26
Elasmobranch 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.00
Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables
In Advice
Atlantic & Pacific
Northern
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Approaches for including in assessmentQualitatively
• Explain trends (temporal and spatial)
• Explain anomalies• Forecast based on
categorical indices (e.g., stoplights)
• Account for uncertainties
Quantitatively
Proportion of assessments that include environmental (C,O,E) variables
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Approaches for including in advice
When not considered in advice, why not?
• Inform implementation of harvest control rule, HCR (90% of cases)
• via time-varying parameters in models (31%)
• Provide expectation for future potential• Sensitivity of HCR performance to
uncertainty in climate impacts• Occasionally used qualitatively to
recommend precaution in choice of TAC or exploitation rates
• Gap: ¼ of these did not include hypothesized mechanisms, being based on exploratory analyses
• Data limitations (45%)• Lack of mechanisms (39%)• Climate dwarfed by other factors (17%)
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International examplesUS: Pacific Sardine, Arrowtooth flounder, Pink salmon…Australia: Rock Lobster. Bluefin Tuna…Europe: Blue Whiting, Bay of Biscay Anchovy…
Bay of Biscay Anchovy: correlation between upwelling and recruitment included in advice to management late 1990s, until 2000/2001 when relationship broke down
r2=0.7Recruitment
index
Upwelling index (m3/s/km)
NOAA Ecosystem Status Reports
(Borja et al. 1996;1998; ICES 2001; 2005)
• Decrease in ecosystem consideration from conceptual stage to advice
• A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches is likely required
• Frequent re-evaluation of hypotheses and metrics is required under changing climate and ecosystem status.
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Key points
Critical gaps• Evaluation of the management
performance with and without ecosystem considerations (Management Strategy Evaluation and retrospectively)
• Seasonal to decadal ocean projections
• Impacts on Arctic species
National Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management Working Group (DFO 2019-2023)
Countries already developed / are developing strategies are: • USA • Australia • ICES • South Africa • ICCAT
Summary of common elements are: • vulnerability risk assessments • reviews of research impact • considers both multiple marine industries• development of adaptation options, • stakeholder engagement • management responses (e.g. EBFM) • a need for funding and capacity
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Recommendation: Climate and Fisheries Strategy
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Thank you
Pepin, P., King, J. Holt, C., Gurney-Smith, H., Shackell, N., Hedges, K., Bundy, A. (in press). Incorporating climate, oceanographic and ecological change considerations into population
assessments: A review of Fisheries and Ocean’s science advisory process. DFO Can. Sci. Avis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/nnn
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