IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SEVENTH JUDICIAL CIRCUIT COURT SANGAMON COUNTY

SPRINGFIELD RIGHT TO LIFE, et. al., and Plaintiffs, v. FELICIA NORWOOD, Director of the Department of Healthcare and Family Services, et al., Defendants.

) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Case No. 2017-MR-1032 Hon. Jennifer M. Ascher, Judge Presiding

DECLARATION OF PROFESSOR MICHAEL NEW

I, Professor Michael New, on oath, state as follows:

1. I am over 18 years of age and otherwise competent to make this Declaration.

2. I am professor at Ave Maria University, teaching courses in economics and

American politics.

3. As noted in the CV attached hereto as Exhibit A, I hold a bachelor’s degree from

Dartmouth College, where I double-majored in economics modified with mathematics and

government, graduating magna cum laude and being invited to membership in Phi Beta Kappa. I

also hold a master’s degree in statistics and a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.

4. Also as noted in my CV, I have published, taught, and researched extensively on

economic issues in relation to state and federal legislative and regulatory policy on abortion,

including legislation providing for public funding of abortion.

5. I have analyzed the impact of House Bill 40 on abortion rates and state finances.

6. My study of the Hyde Amendment which was published by the Lozier Institute in

2016 found that public funding of abortion through Medicaid increased the abortion rate by 1.52

per every thousand women of childbearing age.

2

7. This estimate was based on 7 peer reviewed studies which analyzed public

funding of abortion. Statistical outliers were excluded and this should be thought of as a

conservative estimate

8. According to the U.S. Census Bureau there were 2,549.621 women of

childbearing age (15-44) living in Illinois in 2016. (1.52/1000)*(2,549,621) = 3875.

9. According to the latest (2016) statistics from the Illinois Department of Health,

found at http://www.dph.illinois.gov/data-statistics/vital-statistics/abortion-statistics, 38,382

abortions were performed in Illinois. Adding 3875 to that number yields 42,257 abortions.

10. According to the Guttmacher Institute’s latest 2014 report,

https://www.guttmacher.org/report/characteristics-us-abortion-patients-2014, in states that

publicly fund abortions, an average of 51% of abortions are paid for by taxpayers. Applying

these numbers to Illinois would mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for

approximately 21,551 abortions under House Bill 40.

11. Plaintiffs in this case have also cited Guttmacher’s 2014 report, which states that

75% of abortions are performed on those qualifying as having incomes below 200% of the

Federal Poverty Level. Illinois provides Medicaid coverage for those up to 213% of the Federal

Poverty Level, http://www.dhs.state.il.us/page.aspx?item=14091. If the Plaintiffs are correct that

the 75% number will be more reflective of the experience of publicly funded abortion in Illinois,

that would mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for approximately 31,692 abortions

under House Bill 40.

12. According to 2015 data from the Guttmacher Institute, Medicaid abortions cost

taxpayers $451 on average. Applying this number in Illinois would mean that Illinois taxpayers

3

are responsible for $9,719,501 (at the 51% level) or $14,293,092 (at the 75% level) in abortion

costs annually.

13. However, I have been provided an April 4, 2015 report from the Illinois General

Assembly’s Legislative Research Unit, attached hereto as Exhibit B, showing the Illinois-specific

costs for Medicaid abortions, which appear to be higher than the national averages. Over the 10

years surveyed, the total cost for the 2778 abortions provided was $2,020,185, an average of

$727 per abortion. Over the past 5 years, the total cost for the 1454 abortions provided was

$1,545,617, an average of $1063 per abortion.

14. If these Illinois Medicaid abortion costs continue under House Bill 40, that would

mean that Illinois taxpayers would be responsible for $15,667,577 (10 year avg/51%),

$22,908,713 (5 year avg/51%), $23,040,084 (10 year avg/75%), or $33,688,596 (5 year

avg/75%).

15. In sum, if House Bill 40 is allowed to go into effect, the taxpayers of Illinois will

be responsible for roughly 21,500 to 31,500 abortions, at a total cost of nearly $10 million per

year at the low end, with a middle range of roughly $15 to $23 million, and a possibility, if

Plaintiffs are correct, of upwards of $33.5 million at the high end.

16. All of the sources cited, methods employed, and statistics provided here are

typical and unremarkable for use in my field of expertise. My calculations rely upon the accuracy

of the provided sources. Due to the expedited nature of these proceedings, my time to provide

this analysis was necessarily limited. With additional time, I would be able to refine this analysis

further.

FURTHER DECLARANT SAYETH NAUGHT.

Michael J. New Ave Maria University

Department of Economics

5050 Ave Maria Blvd.

Ave Maria, FL 34142

(239) 280-1569

Michael.New@AveMaria.edu

Employment

Ave Maria University

Associate Professor, July 2017 - present

Ave Maria University

Visiting Associate Professor, July 2015 – July 2017

University of Michigan – Dearborn

Assistant Professor, August 2011 – June 2015

University of Alabama

Assistant Professor, August 2004 – August 2011

Harvard-MIT Data Center

Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, August 2002-August 2004

Education

Stanford University

Ph.D. Political Science, June 2002

Dissertation: A Comparison of Fiscal Discipline Measures Passed Through The Citizen Initiative

To Fiscal Discipline Measures Enacted Through Other Means.

Reading Committee: Morris Fiorina, Simon Jackman, John Cogan

Fields: American Politics, Political Organizations, Political Economy (GSB sequence)

Stanford University

M.S. Statistics, January 2002

Dartmouth College

B.A. with High Honors, Government, June 1997

B.A. Economics Modified with Mathematics, June 1997

Magna Cum Laude

Phi Beta Kappa Society

Courses Taught

Undergraduate Courses

“Economics 250: Family, Gender, and Society” Ave Maria University, Fall 2017, Fall 2016

“Economics 202: Introductory Microeconomics.” Ave Maria University, Various Semesters

“Economics 302: Intermediate Microeconomics.” Ave Maria University, Various Semesters

“Economics 332: Game Theory and Strategic Thinking” Ave Maria University, Fall 2017, Fall

2016, Fall 2015

“Economics 415: Fiscal Policy” Ave Maria University, Spring 2017, Spring 2016

Teaching Interests

Economics

Microeconomics, Game Theory, Fiscal Policy

American Politics

Introduction to American Politics, State and Local Government,

Statistical Methods

Introductory Statistics, Intermediate Statistics

Research Interests

American Politics

State and Local Politics, Budgetary Politics, Direct Democracy

Public Administration and Public Policy

Public Finance, Fiscal Constitutions, Morality Policy, Health and Welfare Policy

Published Academic Papers

“Analyzing the Impact of State Level Contraception Mandates on Public Health Outcomes.”

Ave Maria Law Review. Summer 2015.

“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era: A Re-

Assessment.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly. September 2014.

“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era.” State

Politics and Policy Quarterly. March 2011.

“State Education Investments and Economic Growth in America: A Path Analysis with Cross-

National Controls” with Norman Baldwin and Stephen Borrelli. Social Science Quarterly. March

2011.

“U.S. Tax and Expenditure Limitations: A Comparative Political Analysis.” State Politics and

Policy Quarterly. Spring 2010.

“Direct Democracy, Public Opinion, and Public Policy.” PS: Political Science and Politics,

October 2009.

“Starve the Beast: A Further Examination.” Cato Journal. Fall 2009.

“Using Natural Experiments to Analyze the Impact of State Legislation on the Incidence of

Abortion.” Catholic Social Science Review. Fall 2009.

“Analyzing The Welfare Caseload Decline from 1996-2002.” Cato Journal. Fall 2008.

“Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Legislation on the Incidence of Abortion Among

Minors.” Catholic Social Science Review. Fall 2007.

"The Effect of State Regulations on State Health Insurance Premiums." ICFAI Journal of

Insurance Law. May 2006.

Academic Book Reviews

Review of David Primo’s Rules and Restraint. Public Choice. July 2009

Academic Letters to the Editor

“Preventing Unintended Pregnancies by Providing No-Cost Contraception.” With David Paton.

Obstetrics and Gynecology. April 2013

Book Chapters

“Economic Growth in the States of the United States: Findings and Lessons from Four Empirical

Studies.” with Norm Baldwin and Will McCracken. In Economic Growth in the 21st Century;

Perspectives, Role of Governmental Policies, Potential and Constraints. Hauppage, NY; Nova

Science Publishers 2014.

“Are Declining Welfare Caseloads a Sign of Successful Welfare Reform?” in Taking Sides:

Clashing Views on Economic Issues. Ed. Frank Bonello New York: McGraw-Hill 2003. pp.

265-275.

Papers in Preparation For Review at Academic Journals

“Analyzing the Impact of "Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Parental Involvement Laws”

Under Review at Social Science Quarterly. (Previously Received a Revise and Resubmit)

"The Citizen Initiative, Public Opinion, and State Fiscal Outcomes" Under Review at Social

Science Quarterly. (Previously Received a Revise and Resubmit)

Papers Presented at Academic Conferences

“The Citizen Initiative, Public Opinion, and Abortion Policy” Presented at the Annual State

Politics Conference. May 19-21, 2016, Richardson, TX. Also presented at the Annual Meeting

of the Midwest Political Science Association. April 7-10, 2014, Chicago, IL.

“Public Opinion Toward Abortion in Hard Case Scenarios” Presented at the Annual Meeting of

the Midwest Political Science Association. April 7-10, 2014, Chicago, IL.

“Analyzing the Effect of Anti-Abortion Parental Involvement Laws on the Incidence of Abortion

Among Minors.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.

August 28-31, 2008. Boston, MA.

Amicus Brief

Brief: On Writ of Certariori in Zubik v. Burwell in Support of Petitioners (U.S. Supreme Court

argued March 23, 2016; Filed January 11, 2016)

Editorials and Book Reviews

The Hyde Amendment’s Lasting Legacy” TheHill.com, September 30, 2016

“No Funding for Planned Parenthood – No Problem” Washington Examiner, August 24, 2015

Review of Clarke Forsythe’s Abuse of Discretion. The Washington Times, October 13, 2013

“Casey at 20 Shows Progress Despite Judicial Hitch” Roll Call, June 25, 2012

“The Return of TABOR” The Washington Times, July 14, 2010

“Bailing Out the States” The Washington Times. January 14, 2009

“The Right Way to Bail Out California” The San Jose Mercury News. January 3, 2009

Invited Presentations

“Pro-Life Success in the States: Strategies for the Current Decade and Beyond.” Presentation

Given at University of Kansas Medical Center on December 6, 2016 in Kansas City, MO. Also

given at Wayne State University School of Medicine on April 9, 2015, Detroit, MI.

“Public Opinion on Sanctity of Life Issues: What Does The Data Tell Us” Presentation given at

Notre Dame’s Vitae Institute in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011, South Bend, IN.

“Analyzing the Effect of State Level Anti-Abortion Legislation in the Post Casey Era.”

Presentation given at Notre Dame’s Vitae Institute in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and

2011, South Bend, IN.

“An Analysis of State Level Contraception Mandates.” Presentation given at “The Future of the

Families and Family Law.” Brigham Young University Law School, October 10, 2014, Provo,

UT.

“Taming Leviathan: Do Tax and Expenditure Limits Work?” American Enterprise Institute

Policy Forum. June 12, 2013, Washington, DC.

“Contemporary Social Science Research on Sanctity of Life Issues.” Presentation given at Notre

Dame University’s Center for Ethics and Culture. July 8, 2009, South Bend, IN.

Comments on John Lott’s Freedomnomics. Cato Institute Book Forum. August 14, 2007,

Washington, DC.

“Drafting Effective Fiscal Limits.” Presentation given to Rhode Island Public Expenditure

Council (RIPEC). July 2005, Providence, RI.

“Process and Institutions: Approaches to Responsible Budgeting.” Goldwater Institute Fiscal

Policy Conference, February 3rd, 2005. Phoenix, AZ.

“Testimony on Model Legislation on Tax and Expenditure Limitations.” American Legislative

Exchange Council 2003 Annual Meeting. July 30-August 2, 2003. Washington, DC. Testimony

also given at meetings in Summer and Fall of 2002.

“Tax Limitation after California’s Prop 13.” Cato Institute Policy Forum. June 19, 2003,

Washington, DC.

Research Grants

$10,000 from the Charlotte Lozier Institute To Analyze State Level Contraception Mandates.

Spring 2014

Fellowships

Witherspoon Institute, Bradley Fellow 2008-2009 academic year

American Political Science Association, Centennial Center Visiting Scholar, Summer 2009

Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, Academic Fellowship, May 2007

Weaver Fellow, Intercollegiate Studies Institute, 2001-2002

Honors and Awards

George Mason University Foundation Award, 2005

Intercollegiate Studies Institute’s Director’s Award, 2000

Disciplinary Service

Chair, Public Administration Section, Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science

Association, Spring 2008. Chicago IL

Editorial Board Member, State Politics and Policy Quarterly (2007-2011)

Invited by the General Social Survey (GSS) to write a memo suggesting topics for updated

survey questions on various sanctity of life issues

Referee, American Journal of Political Science

Referee, Journal of Politics

Referee, Political Research Quarterly

Referee, American Politics Review

Referee, Eastern Economic Journal

Referee, Public Budgeting and Finance

Referee, Publius

Referee, State Politics and Policy Quarterly

Referee, State and Local Government Review

Referee, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management

Referee, Journal of Women, Politics, and Policy

Referee, Social Forces

Referee, The Review of Black Political Economy

Referee, National Tax Journal

Discussant, Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, 2014, 2013, 2008, 2006, 2003

Discussant, American Political Science Association Meetings, 2005

Discussant Southern Political Science Association Meetings, 2005

University and Departmental Service

Ave Maria University

Program Director, Political Economy and Government, 2016-2017 academic year

Member, Honor Council, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year

Member, Sophomore Success Committee, 2016-2017 academic year

Search Committee for Faculty Member in Business, 2016-2017 academic year

Member, Institutional Review Board, Spring Semester 2016

Faculty Advisor, AEI at Ave Maria University, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 academic year

University of Michigan -- Dearborn

Co-Director, University of Michigan Dearborn’s Social Science Research Colloquium Fall 2011-

Fall 2014

Member, CASL Curriculum Committee, Winter Semester 2014 and Winter Semester 2015

Member, Social and Behavioral Analysis Learning Outcomes Subcommittee, 2013-2014

academic year

Graduate Integrity Board, 2013-2014 academic year

Search Committee for Assistant Professor in Environmental Politics and Policy, 2012-2013

academic year

The University of Alabama

Director, University of Alabama’s Washington Experience Summer Internship Program,

2005 – 2011

Vice-President, Phi Beta Kappa Society, 2009-2010 Academic Year

Acting Director, University of Alabama’s Masters in Public Administration (MPA) Program,

Spring 2006

Dissertation Committee, Sam Clovis. “Federalism, Homeland Security, and National

Preparedness: A Case Study in the Development of Public Policy.”

Dissertation Committee, Justice Kali. “Innovation Diffusion and the Reinvention of Domestic

Violence Policy Within State Welfare Programs: Influences of Adoption of the Family Violence

Option and Domestic Violence Policy.”

Honors College Research Project Advisor. Will McCracken. “A Proposed Redesign of the

Alabama State Constitution.”

Member, Department Graduate Studies Committee, 2009-2010 and 2007-2008 Academic

Years

Member, Department Undergraduate Studies Committee, 2010-2011, 2006-2007, 2005-2006,

and 2004-2005 Academic Years

I.)N-ATI{AN P v\/OI FF.ASs')CIATF DIRECTORALAN R, KRCNFR. EX'CUTIV€ OIRSCTOR

April 4,2015

ABORTIONS FUITDED BY MTDICAID

We obtained information on state-funded abortions froa theDepartmeat of Healthcare and Family Seryices (DHf.Sl. I[e are alsoseeking information oa abortions subsidized by Cook County Healthand Hospital System, but have not heard back from the person weasked.

DHFS stalf told us that there were four reasons for Medicaid-funded abortions: rape; incest; to save the woman's life; and to protecther health. Ms.Wolf asked for information on how those four reasonswere determiaed. We asked DH['S for information oa that - including acitation to an authority listing those four reasons - but have not yetreceived a full answer.

Table 1 on the uext page shows the aumber of abortloas funded byMedicaid in llliaois in each of the 1O fiscal years, and their estimatedcoasts.

LEGISLATIVE RESEARCH UNIT2?2 s. CoL!-EGE ' sulrE 3Ol

SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS 62704. I894PHoNE: 211!782'6851 o FAx: 217/'785-'7572

www. r LGA.Gov,/coM M tss loN/LRU/LR u HoM E. HTM L

2

Table 1: Medicaid-t\rnded Abortions in Illinois by Reason, ild Estimated Pa5rments,

FYs 2005-2014

Fbcalyear

2005200520f,720082009

2010201 r2At220132014

Estitnatedpayments

$ 2A5434312

76,836195,45t77132

298,W0248568313,8W4t 5Ot243,371

Protect Savewoman's woman'shealth lde Incest

tl 2 0204050 12135 2t 7t42 l8 2

Rape

220

322400159

Total

3524

381563321

108156142t6789

20l0l3l6l5

00000

3& 49235 201tOl 256177 3604t 145

Totals 11020 126 11 rfiar 2:t7S $2,020,185

Source: E-mail message from Illinois Department of Hcalthcare and Family Services l,egislative Affairs staffon behalf of DHFS Bureau of Federal Finance, March 5,2015-

We also asked the Departments of Publicwhether they spend anything on abogtion.both departments said-they-do not.3

Eealth and Correcti.onsSpokespersons for

we hope this information is herpful. please let us know if wecan be of further assi-stance.

Assistant Deputy Director for Research

TJB: SMM

Notes

1. Telephone conversation with caryn stancik, Executive Direc_tor of communications, cook-county Health and HospitarsSystem, Chicago, March L2, 20L5.

2. Telephone conversation with DEIS Legislative Affairs staffon behalf of DHFS Bureau of Federal Finance, March G, 2015.See also DHFS, Handbook for Practitioners Renderjng l{edicalservices (chapter A-200: Policy and procedures For MedicalServices), at A-223.8t Termination of Pregnancy-fnducedAbortions (Aug, 20L01, downloaded from DHFS rntlrnet site.

Tltomas J. lBazai

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