In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation. Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years.
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Transcript of In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation. Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years.
In crisis –
Energy, the basis of civilisation
Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years
POPULATION – IS THERE NO END?
Relationship between Energy & Income
FERTILTY V WEALTH
THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE – WHAT WOULD LIFE BE LIKE WITHOUT CHEAP EASY TO USE ENERGY?
Energy Need RequirementSHELTER HIGHWARMTH HIGHFOOD HIGHWATER LOWWASTE DISPOSAL MODERATE
Coal production peaked in Britain in 1913Oil started to replace coal in 1930- a liquid easier to use than a solid. GDP tied to energy use!
World daily oil production –millions of barrels /day – Have we hit the peak or is it yet to come?
Peak Oil concept- oil is a finite resource – sooner or latersupplies will dwindle and demand will not be met or alternatives will replace oil.
FT 15 Sep 2011
Colin Campbell shows the peak of oil production has passed.Others are not so sure! BUT GAS IS STILL TO PEAK
Pric
e $/
bbl
$100
$50
$10
1950-592000-09
Light green oil price – money of the dayDark green reference 2010
Oil price 1861 - 2010
Today oil price $125
Why does Peak Oil matter?
Short answer –•when demand threatens to exceed supply the price goes up• and a world recession follows until demand drops.•With hardships for the many all round the world
The Italian and Greek protests - just the beginning of more widespread unrest?Without cheap energy can we afford our present life style!
International Energy Agency –World Energy Supply Forecast until 2030Note fossil fuels predominate- over 75% in 2030
Solving the crisis?
1. Explore for and produce more oil and gas2. Produce more from existing fields3. Recruit bright young people to add brain
power to finding and extracting the maximum amounts of oil and gas.
4. Speed up the development of alternatives
5. Change the way we live
Can we achieve forecast?
1. Explore for and produce more oil and gas
2000m
500m
Water depth
West Africa- deep waterMany big oil fields
Tullow and partners are spending about $1million every daydrilling deepwater wells offshore West Africa with rigs like this
The Arctic6% of the globe with potential for400 B bbls more oil, about 1/3 of existing reservesProblems – ice,ownership of territory, production systems
Global warming is a reality- These young ladies are sitting on the North Pole(Photo Courtesy DMcInroy)
Shale Gas – The Fuel of the future?
2. Produce more from existing fields
Use 4D – Repeat 3D surveys to find where oil is left in reservoir
Maximise oil recovery
Maximise oil recovery
Draugen Field Norway –courtesy Schlumberger
Use miscible flood to recover over 15% more oil
Tertiary Recovery in Texas.Reservoir is flooded with CO2 and 17% more oil recovered
3. Recruit bright young people
Youth and brilliance plus age and experience is a winning formulato find more oil and gas
Cutting from Financial Times 29 September 2011
Y
Cambridge Oxford Aberdeen Imperial0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
OtherFinanceIndustryAcademia
Destination of Post Graduates from certain Universities in UK
4. Speed up the development of alternatives
Y
Cutting from the Financial Times 29 Sep 2011
Change the way we live – isthere any hope?
Newt Gingrich said avoid smaller cars because gun racks could not be fitted in them
Conclusions• The crisis is now. It is not the banks fault. We have run out of cheap energy.• We must produce more fossil fuels
particularly oil to give time to develop cheap alternatives
• We need more bright young people to work at discovering and producing oil and gas in difficult places
• Or accept a lower standard of living and change the way we live. This may not happen without a revolution.