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Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service is published by OPIS by IHS Markit | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645

January 13, 2020 • Volume 17, Issue 2

See page 2 for more spot pricing locations

U.S. RINs (prices in U.S. $/RIN)

Fri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

U.S. Ethanol RINs

Current Yr 0.1400-0.1450 0.1300-0.1425 0.1400-0.1450 0.1450-0.1475 0.1500-0.1600 0.14450

Previous Yr 0.0750-0.0825 0.0725-0.0750 0.0750-0.0800 0.0800-0.0875 0.0900-0.1000 0.08175

U.S. Cellulosic RINs

Current Yr 0.8000-0.8100 0.8000-0.8100 0.8000-0.8200 0.8000-0.8200 0.8000-0.8200 0.80800

Previous Yr 0.8000-0.8100 0.8000-0.8100 0.8000-0.8200 0.8000-0.8200 0.8000-0.8200 0.80800

U.S. Biodiesel RINs

Current Yr 0.3600-0.3850 0.3600-0.3850 0.3650-0.3800 0.3800-0.3950 0.4000-0.4200 0.38300

Previous Yr 0.3700-0.4000 0.3800-0.4200 0.4000-0.4400 0.4000-0.4400 0.4300-0.4800 0.41600

U.S. Advanced Biofuel RINs

Current Yr 0.3500-0.3850 0.3500-0.3850 0.3550-0.3800 0.3700-0.3950 0.3900-0.4200 0.37800

Previous Yr 0.3600-0.4000 0.3700-0.4200 0.3900-0.4400 0.3900-0.4400 0.4200-0.4800 0.41100

February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020

CBOT 133.40 135.40 137.60 139.90

Settlement Thursday, January 9, 2020 Source: Chicago Board of Trade

Chicago Rule 11 (prices in U.S. $/gal.)


Current Yr 1.3100-1.3150 1.2800-1.2900 1.2975-1.3000 1.2950-1.3100 1.3100-1.3150 1.30225

Ethanol Market Overview:

Ethanol skids amid slack seasonal blendingThe transition into a New Year is often a slow

period for ethanol markets dealing with what usually turns out to be some of the stingiest demand levels of the year, and the last week reflected that tendency both through a lack of trade activity as well as bearish supply and blending indications.

Even as the Chicago-area bulk ethanol market remained exceedingly thin in terms of cash trading, spot ethanol prices for transfers this week had talks slumping under $1.30/gal before midweek before some Thursday trading got done down to $1.265/gal. That put cash prices in market down as much as a dime or so since New Year’s Eve, shaving more than 6.6cts over the last week.

Some of the backwardation through January remained flattened, with prices for any-January discussed at or near prompts and week-out transfers at different times, at last look running $1.2625 by $1.27/gal. Looking forward, it is notable that some in the trade called any-February values upwards of several cents higher than January values.

Railcars trading for last week under Rule 11 terms showed a bit more firmness than other markets by midweek, with trades at $1.31/gal by midweek before market sources pointed to Thursday trading that had Rules fetching up to $1.32/gal on this-week-ship cars.

Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices

Ethanol Futures (cts/gal contract price)

Ethanol Market Overview ......................... 1

Ethanol and Gasoline Component Spot Prices ....................... 1-3

Block Term Contract Prices in Key Markets........................................... 4

Bulk Truck Spot Prices in Key Markets........................................... 4

Renewable Fuels Averages ....................... 5

Biofuels Stock Performance ..................... 6

Inside Washington..................................... 7

Key Supply and Demand Statistics ................................................... 8

In Key Commodity Markets ...................... 8

Biodiesel/Ethanol Plant Profitability ........10

Renewable Fuel Feedstock/ Co-Product Price Index ...........................11

European, Brazilian and CBI Markets .............................................13

News of the Week ....................................15

continued on page 3

Chicago (prices in U.S. $/gal.)


Ethanol 1.2900-1.3100 1.2900-1.2910 1.2860-1.2950 1.2660-1.2800 1.2600-1.2700 1.28380

DP ETH 1.3100-1.3150 1.2900-1.2950 1.2900-1.2950 1.2700-1.2800 1.2600-1.2625 1.28675

B100 SME 3.2500-3.3200 3.1800-3.2500 3.2200-3.3000 3.2300-3.3000 3.2300-3.3000 3.25800

RBOB Unl 1.6663-1.7013 1.6469-1.7119 1.6822-1.6922 1.6088-1.6488 1.6177-1.6277 1.66038

RBOB Pre 2.1388-2.1738 2.1194-2.1844 2.1072-2.1672 2.0588-2.0988 2.0727-2.1077 2.12288

CBOB Unl 1.6288-1.6638 1.6094-1.6744 1.5972-1.6572 1.5488-1.5888 1.5627-1.5977 1.61288

ULSD 1.7214-1.9089 1.7139-1.8839 1.7974-1.9024 1.7182-1.8282 1.6901-1.8501 1.80145

@OPISBiofuels | www.opisnet.com | 888.301.2645 2


Gulf CoastFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.4000-1.4200 1.4000-1.4400 1.4000-1.4350 1.4000-1.4300 1.3900-1.4100 1.41250

B100 SME 3.0500-3.1100 2.9800-3.0400 3.0200-3.0900 3.0300-3.0900 3.0300-3.0900 3.05300

RBOB Unl 1.6938-1.6988 1.6969-1.7069 1.6672-1.6772 1.5863-1.5963 1.5852-1.5877 1.64963

RBOB Pre 1.8813-1.8863 1.8844-1.8944 1.8422-1.8522 1.7793-1.7893 1.7782-1.7807 1.83683

CBOB Unl 1.6838-1.6863 1.6894-1.6969 1.6642-1.6672 1.5813-1.5888 1.5777-1.5852 1.64208

Unleaded 1.7248-1.7348 1.7244-1.7319 1.6922-1.7022 1.6138-1.6188 1.6202-1.6302 1.67933

ULSD 1.9724-1.9854 1.9514-1.9524 1.9499-1.9524 1.8682-1.8782 1.8576-1.8676 1.92355

61ULSD 1.9724-1.9854 1.9514-1.9524 1.9499-1.9524 1.8682-1.8782 1.8576-1.8676 1.92355

New YorkFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.4000-1.4400 1.4100-1.4300 1.4100-1.4200 1.3850-1.4100 1.3700-1.3900 1.40650

ITT ETH 1.4100-1.4500 1.4200-1.4400 1.4200-1.4300 1.3950-1.4200 1.3800-1.4000 1.41650

Ethanol FWD 1.4350-1.4850 1.4500-1.4750 1.4500-1.4675 1.4450-1.4650 1.4180-1.4680 1.45585

B100 SME 3.0900-3.1800 3.0200-3.1100 3.0600-3.1600 3.0700-3.1600 3.0700-3.1600 3.10800

RBOB Unl 1.7563-1.7663 1.7639-1.7669 1.7227-1.7327 1.6488-1.6538 1.6507-1.6527 1.71148

RBOB Pre 1.9138-1.9238 1.9194-1.9294 1.8872-1.8972 1.8138-1.8238 1.8177-1.8277 1.87538

CBOB Unl 1.7563-1.7663 1.7604-1.7704 1.7227-1.7327 1.6513-1.6613 1.6507-1.6607 1.71328

CBOB Pre 1.9288-1.9388 1.9344-1.9444 1.9022-1.9122 1.8288-1.8388 1.8327-1.8427 1.89038

ULSD 2.0504-2.0604 2.0229-2.0329 2.0259-2.0359 1.9497-1.9597 1.9426-1.9461 2.00265

Los AngelesFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.5500-1.5900 1.5500-1.5900 1.5400-1.5800 1.5200-1.5500 1.5000-1.5300 1.55000

CARBOB - R 1.7988-1.8038 1.8219-1.8294 1.8422-1.9722 1.8488-1.9038 1.8427-1.8527 1.85163

CARBOB - P 1.9763-1.9813 1.9994-2.0069 2.0197-2.1497 2.0263-2.0813 2.0202-2.0302 2.02913

ULSD 2.1164-2.1289 2.0539-2.0639 2.0524-2.0624 1.9782-1.9832 1.9651-1.9751 2.03795

Nebraska (fob Railcar)Fri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.1900-1.2000 1.1900-1.2000 1.1800-1.2000 1.1700-1.1900 1.1600-1.2000 1.18800

Tampa Fri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.5000-1.5100 1.4900-1.5100 1.4700-1.5100 1.4700-1.4900 1.4600-1.5000 1.49100

DallasFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.3800-1.4000 1.3700-1.4200 1.3600-1.4100 1.3450-1.3950 1.3500-1.3900 1.38200

San FranciscoFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.5700-1.6100 1.5700-1.6100 1.5600-1.6000 1.5400-1.5800 1.5200-1.5600 1.57200

WashingtonFri. 01/03 Mon. 01/06 Tues. 01/07 Wed. 01/08 Thurs. 01/09 Wkly. Avg.

Ethanol 1.4700-1.4800 1.4700-1.4900 1.4500-1.4900 1.4300-1.4400 1.4300-1.4400 1.45900

Ethanol & Gasoline Component Spot Market Prices (prices in U.S $/gal.)Methodology and Definitions:

OPIS derives ethanol, gasoline and biodiesel prices from many means, including surveying buyers and sellers via phone/e-mail, and receiving postings electronically from producers and purchasers. While OPIS makes best efforts to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of its prices, it in no way guarantees either the accuracy or timeliness of any of the data included herein. Definitions are as follows:

Ethanol Spot Price (Bulk Barge/Rail): These are large quantity pure ethanol deals transacted or being discussed in certain FOB markets.

Brazil Ethanol: Undenatured anhydrous ethanol cargoes, FOB Brazil terminals for export, typically 50,000 bbl or more available 5-30 days from the date of publication. The assessment generally reflects price at the Santos export terminal, though others may be used for assessment purposes.

Block Term Contract Values: These are the three-to-six month contract deals between large buyers and sellers of pure ethanol. Some are done as fixed, and those deals are reported in the “Fixed” column. Other deals are done based on a differential to certain gasoline benchmarks (usually conventional spot unleaded). Those formulae are tracked and reported by market each week in the “Formula”column and calculated (based on the closing Thursday price of the gasoline benchmark) to arrive at a “Formula Calculated” price. All deals (“Fixed” and “Formula”) are reported from a weighted average survey.

Bulk Truck Spot Prices (Rack): These are the prices for truck quantities of pure ethanol at storage points in the given market. These prices are not posted – they are offered to buyers given supply and demand dynamics at prices discovered and published by OPIS.

Splash Blend Rack Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers and resellers are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts.

Splash Blend Producer Prices: These are the average of the Thursday closing price that producers (not resellers) are posting at various rack locations. Typically prices are for small quantities that marketers pull to blend into gasoline to create and deliver ethanol-blended gasoline to accounts.

Low Carbon Fuel Standard Credits: Traded in U.S. dollars per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2), this represents the daily traded price range or range of bids and offers on carbon credits generated for compliance under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard program implemented by the California Air Resources Board. Trading is for credits transferable in the current calendar year, until the last month of the year when deals for the following year may also be considered.



Though other U.S. bulk ethanol markets remained even more thinly discussed through the week, January barge talks out of New York Harbor continued to depict an unusually wide price contango versus February, and sources pegged it to the growing price disparity in Renewable Identification Number vintages.

Market sources explained that January barges offer a seller’s option on RINs, but February carries current-year RINs that are lately priced at a premium of about 6cts or more over the 2019 vintage. January barge talks by the latter part of last week sagged back to $1.38/gal, while February ran in the $1.44/gal area. At the same time, RIN values for 2020 traded as high as 16cts/RIN versus 2019 vintage values topping out at 10cts/RIN.

Meantime, if ethanol spots were going to find any traction last week, it would not come from weekly EIA figures that showed supply swelling 1.428 million bbl nationwide over the week ending January 3 and at 22.462 million bbl reaching a 14-week high. Impact of the huge build may be dampened by the fact that stockpiles remained 3.4% lower than a year ago.

More interesting, perhaps, is the 514,000 bbl week-to-week build EIA reported in Midwest stocks that remain well behind a year ago. Stocks in the region had countered nationwide draws and built handsomely for several weeks now – amounting to a 1.256 million bbl, or 18.3%, build in the region since the second week of December, to reach 8.126 million bbl.

However, it is sinking ethanol blending – though not uncommon for the end of one year and the transition into the next – that added to the bearish nature of the report.

Along with a steep week-to-week slide in gasoline demand, EIA also reported ethanol blender net input marked a two-year low. At 801,000 b/d, the blender input measure dropped 83,000 b/d week-to-week, or 9.4%, and more than 14.6% over the last two weeks as it retreated 1.7% year on year. Conventional gasoline blending with ethanol managed hold a thin 0.06% year-on-year gain, though it dropped 438,000 b/d week-to-week, a 7.8% loss to 5.191 million b/d.

The weekly supply build arrived without an assist from production or imports. Ethanol output nationwide limped slightly lower, at 1.062 million b/d falling 4,000 b/d from the week before and down about 1.9% in the last two weeks. Despite slowing lately, the ethanol output figure is a sturdy one, still 6.2% ahead of the same week in 2019.

Spencer Kelly, [email protected]

Biodiesel imports to U.S. reach seven-month high, census shows

U.S. biodiesel imports in November reached the highest level since April as shipments from

Germany ramped up, trade data released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau showed.

November biodiesel imports totaled 15.96 million gal, up 14.7% versus October’s 13.91 million gal, hitting the highest level since reaching 18.89 million gal in April. November imports were still down more than 4 million gal, or 20.9%, against the November 2018 total of 20.17 million gal.

For the 11th time in the last 12 months, Canada was the top exporter of biodiesel to the U.S., sending 8.65 million gal in November, down from 9.97 million gal in October. Canada sent 78.57 million gal to the U.S. in 2018 and totaled 77.37 million gal through the first 11 months of 2019.

Behind Canada, Germany sent 6.1 million gal in November, up from 3.01 million gal in October. In 2018, Germany’s exports of biodiesel to the U.S. totaled 63.07 million gal and totaled 45.1 million gal through the first 11 months of 2019.

Behind those two, South Korea sent 1.2 gal and exported 14.51 million gal in 2019 through November.

Imports in the first 11 months of 2019 totaled 157.08 million gal, up 7.9% from 145.5 million gal in the same period a year ago.

Total imports in 2018 were at 170.39 million gal, down 57% from the 2017 sum of 400.1 million gal.

U.S. biodiesel imports tumbled after the U.S. Department of Commerce in August 2017 issued a preliminary finding that Argentina and Indonesia subsidize biodiesel imported into the U.S. As a result, importers are required to pay steep duties on biodiesel exported to the U.S.

California Low Carbon Fuel StandardCarbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal)


Carb Credit 204.000-206.000 204.000-207.000 204.000-207.000 205.000-207.000 205.000-208.000 205.7000

CI Pts BD 0.0257-0.0260 0.0257-0.0261 0.0257-0.0261 0.0259-0.0261 0.0259-0.0262 0.02595

CI Pts Eth 0.01663-0.01679 0.01663-0.01687 0.01663-0.01687 0.01671-0.01687 0.01671-0.01695 0.016766

CC Dsl 0.2066-0.2086 0.2066-0.2096 0.2066-0.2096 0.2076-0.2096 0.2076-0.2106 0.20830

CC Gas 0.2156-0.2177 0.2156-0.2187 0.2156-0.2187 0.2166-0.2187 0.2166-0.2198 0.21736

CC Dsl 95 0.1962-0.1982 0.1962-0.1991 0.1962-0.1991 0.1972-0.1991 0.1972-0.2001 0.19786

CC Gas 90 0.1940-0.1959 0.1940-0.1969 0.1940-0.1969 0.1950-0.1969 0.1950-0.1978 0.19564

Oregon Clean Fuels ProgramCarbon Credit: $/MT; Carbon Intensity Pts: $/CI; Carbon Credit per Gallon Diesel: $/gal; Carbon Credit per Gallon Gasoline: $/gal)


Carb Credit 150.000-160.000 150.000-155.000 150.000-155.000 150.000-155.000 150.000-155.000 153.0000

CI Pts BD 0.0189-0.0202 0.0189-0.0196 0.0189-0.0196 0.0189-0.0196 0.0189-0.0196 0.01930

CI Pts Eth 0.01223-0.01304 0.01223-0.01263 0.01223-0.01263 0.01223-0.01263 0.01223-0.01263 0.012471

CC Dsl 0.0902-0.0962 0.0902-0.0932 0.0902-0.0932 0.0902-0.0932 0.0902-0.0932 0.09200

CC Gas 0.0832-0.0888 0.0832-0.0860 0.0832-0.0860 0.0832-0.0860 0.0832-0.0860 0.08488

CC Dsl 95 0.0857-0.0914 0.0857-0.0885 0.0857-0.0885 0.0857-0.0885 0.0857-0.0885 0.08739

CC Gas 90 0.0749-0.0799 0.0749-0.0774 0.0749-0.0774 0.0749-0.0774 0.0749-0.0774 0.07640

Eth CI 69.89 1.5300-1.5500 1.5300-1.5600 1.5200-1.5600 1.5000-1.5400 1.5000-1.5400 1.53300



production of cellulosic biofuels. Obligated parties under the RFS that do not obtain enough RINs to satisfy their obligation in any compliance year may make up shortfalls by buying CWCs. The credits cannot be traded.

Under the CAA, the agency is required to base the annual CWC value on a formula that takes the greater of 25cts or $3, adjusted for inflation. That number is then subtracted from the average wholesale price of gasoline.

With D3 RINs prices tumbling far below the CWC level in 2019, it’s unlikely in the near-term that obligated parties will buy the credits, sources said last week.

The 2020 D3 cellulosic biofuel RINs traded at 81cts/RIN by Thursday last week, much less than half the $1.8450/RIN that current-year credits could have fetched a year ago. EPA recently set the 2020 cellulosic biofuel target at 590 million gal, up 40.5% from 420 million gal in 2019.

Jeff Barber, [email protected]

Jordan Godwin, [email protected]

Midwest regional clean fuels policy report released by GPI

The Great Plains Institute (GPI) on Tuesday unveiled its report detailing how a regional clean fuels policy for the Midwest should be designed to benefit the area’s biofuels producers while also achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions.

“A comprehensive clean fuels policy is critical to solving the region’s most significant emissions challenge,” said Brendan Jordan, vice president of transportation and fuels at GPI.

After accounting for the vast bulk of biodiesel imports for much of 2016 and 2017, Argentine exports to the U.S. were reported at zero again in November for a 27th straight month. The country accounted for 51.6% of total U.S. imports in 2016 and a record-high 78.84 million gal in December of that year, Census data shows. In 2017, imports from Argentina totaled 292.34 million gal, still amounting to more than the rest of the contributing countries combined despite being blanked for the last two-thirds of the year.

U.S. biodiesel exports in November were at 2.38 million gal, down month to month for a fourth-straight month to the lowest level since December 2017. Exports were down from 6.72 million gal in October and down from 6.65 million gal in November 2019. Exports to date have totaled 111.9 million gal so far in 2019. In 2018, exports totaled 104.41 million gal, up 10.5% from the 2017 total of 94.5 million gal.


EPA ups RFS cellulosic waiver credit price for 2020Early last week EPA set the 2020 cellulosic credit waiver

(CWC) price under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) at $1.80/gal – a 1.7% increase from $1.77/gal that the agency calculated for 2019.

Under the RFS, EPA must give obligated parties the ability to by CWCs in any year in which the projected volume of cellulosic biofuels production is less than the statutory targets included in the Clean Air Act.

The credits can be purchased in lieu of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from the

Ethanol Buying PricesEthanol Spot Price -------- Block Term Q4-Q1 Contract Values -------- Bulk Truck Splash Blend Splash Blend

City, State (Bulk Barge/Rail) Fixed Formula Formula (calculated) Spot Prices (rack) Rack Price Producer Prices

Albany, NY 133.50 147.50 137.50 N/A N/A

Houston, TX 140.00 154.00 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -7.5

157.77 147.00 175.27 N/A

New Haven, CT 142.00 158.25 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -4.75

160.52 N/A N/A N/A

New York, NY 138.00 154.75 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -8.25

157.02 142.50 N/A N/A

Chicago, IL 126.50 143.25 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -19.75

145.52 130.00 130.00 130.00

Louisville, KY 130.00 N/A N/A N/A 135.00 N/A N/A

Minneapolis, MN 126.00 N/A N/A N/A 131.00 132.56 131.83

St. Louis, MO 129.00 145.00 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -18.5

146.77 137.00 172.84 N/A

Los Angeles, CA

(79.9)

151.50 171.50 NYMEX RBOB

Unl 8.5

173.77 152.00 N/A N/A

Phoenix, AZ 139.75 158.50 NYMEX RBOB

Unl -2

163.27 144.00 145.00 145.00

San Francisco, CA

(79.9)

154.00 171.50 NYMEX RBOB

Unl 8.5

173.77 155.00 N/A N/A

Washington 143.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ethanol Truck & Spot PricesCity, State Spot Prices

(Rack)

Rack Price Producer

Prices

Cleveland, OH 133.50 156.23 161.00

Decatur, IL 132.00 N/A N/A

Des Moines, IA 124.50 132.53 132.31

Doniphan, NE 123.00 144.50 137.50

Fargo, ND 121.50 137.25 133.25

Indianapolis, IN 132.50 N/A N/A

Kansas City, KS 123.00 137.57 139.00

Madison, WI 132.50 147.34 N/A

Omaha, NE 123.00 133.08 134.92

Peoria/Pekin, IL 131.00 N/A N/A

Sioux City, IA 126.00 137.11 133.00

Sioux Falls, SD 122.00 134.70 132.83

Topeka, KS 124.00 144.95 142.25

Wichita, KS 124.50 148.06 144.19

Denver, CO 136.50 153.5 N/A

In Key Markets



“This portfolio approach brings together a number of solutions from cleaner electricity to charge electric vehicles to bolstering the region’s rich agricultural resources while simultaneously lowering the carbon intensity of biofuels. Clean fuels represent a huge opportunity for the region to create an environmentally and economically sustainable future.”

The report made several recommendations for what a well-designed clean fuels policy must include:

• It should first take a market-based approach and remain fuel and technology neutral in assessing carbon intensity (CI), relying on a portfolio of clean fuels.

• It should have robust and consistent lifecycle

Ethanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

130.625 149.526 175.228 150.763 255.169

B100 w/ RIN B20 w/ ULSD B15 w/ ULSD B10 w/ ULSD B5 w/ ULSD B2 w/ ULSD

366.985 209.806 196.674 --.-- 204.653 194.120

National Renewable Fuels Averages

Key Renewable Fuels Regional Averages

NortheastEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

138.000 168.000 174.740 165.694 295.657


350.500 205.080 205.478 --.-- 203.564 203.266

SoutheastEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

138.000 158.417 170.066 159.473 243.312


289.900 202.000 208.700 --.-- 201.050 198.725

Gulf CoastEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

140.000 148.786 172.355 147.040 224.957


361.715 191.196 196.297 --.-- 204.432 193.752

MidwestEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

122.250 144.511 170.985 142.182 216.803


311.767 199.476 187.297 --.-- 197.635 192.018

RockiesEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

140.000 153.188 171.505 149.903 266.397


--.-- 176.703 --.-- --.-- 185.423 168.382

West CoastEthanol Spot Ethanol Rack w/ RIN Ethanol Blended Rack Gasoline (10%) E-85 Racks E-85 Retail (w/ tax)

139.750 153.333 242.155 227.817 319.190


482.500 246.295 --.-- --.-- 227.941 --.--



assessments for all fuel types and consider regional factors in the Midwest.

• The policy also should build on existing state policies rather than replace those policies.

• It should reinforce and complement existing efforts by the agricultural sector to adopt practices that improve soil health and water quality and capture carbon.

• Also, it should recognize state autonomy in policymaking but seek to create a uniform regional approach where possible.

The report was informed by modeling for achieving average CI reductions for all transportation fuels of either 10%, 15% or 20% by 2030 and finds that all those scenarios are achievable mostly with clean fuel production resources available in the region.

The report did not recommend a specific program administrator, saying that would be determined by each state that chooses to move forward with a clean fuels policy.

“Clean transportation means using less oil and transitioning to cleaner fuels, including low carbon biofuels and electricity,” said Jeremy Martin, director of fuels policy who is a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a member of the Midwestern Clean Fuels Policy Initiative. “Clean fuels policies promote the use of low-carbon biofuels and electricity and support increased deployment of electric vehicles from passenger cars to transit buses.

“A Midwestern approach to clean fuels policy should also reward biofuel producers that reduce emissions, support farmers who adopt more sustainable practices, and encourage operators of electric vehicles to charge them with renewable power.”

The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) praised the efforts of the initiative. ACE CEO Brian Jennings was a co-funder/co-founder of the Clean Fuels Policy white paper process.

“This reunification is based on a shared vision for the Midwest to be a bigger part of the solution to climate change, but in a way which also spurs economic growth,” Jennings said. “We strongly encourage Midwest governors and legislators to read the white paper and consider new clean fuel policies which will expand economic activity and cut GHG emissions.”

The 24-page white paper was a result of a 20-month process and collaboration between a wide range of producers, marketers, nonprofit and research organizations, scientists and engineers, and agriculture and industry stakeholders coming together for a Midwestern Clean Fuels Policy Initiative, facilitated by GPI.


Word of China E10 delay disappoints ethanol producers

Many ethanol industry players have relied on U.S. trade talks with China and the advent of that country’s 10% ethanol blending mandate as key pieces to the puzzle that could turn around the industry’s fortunes – but reports last week that China would delay its mandate dealt a blow to those hopes.

News reports that China now planned to delay implementation of the nationwide E10 requirement that it put on the books back in 2017 did not come as a complete surprise to the U.S. ethanol industry, said Renewable Fuels Association president and CEO Geoff Cooper. The reports, added Cooper, initially coming from Reuters, are a negative for the industry, but he emphasized that it does not erase the important possibility that ethanol will be included in phase one of the trade deal with China and the benefits from expanding discretionary fuel use there.

Further details of the U.S./China agreement are expected to be released sometime this week.

China uses more than 40 billion gal/yr of gasoline and industry reports suggest the ethanol blending rate recently stood at about 3%, but a move to a 10% blend rate would jump China’s ethanol demand to about 4 billion gal/yr or more – presumably boosting its need for ethanol imports.

Weekly Biofuels Stock Performance

Company Symbol 1/9/20 1/2/20 change % change

Adecoagro SA AGRO ñ 8.49 8.13 $0.36 4.43%

Aemetis AMTX ò 0.86 0.89 -$0.04 -3.93%

The Andersons, Inc. ANDE ò 24.85 25.00 -$0.15 -0.60%

Archer Daniels Midland ADM ò 44.08 46.11 -$2.03 -4.40%

Bunge BG ò 55.92 57.56 -$1.64 -2.85%

Cielo Waste Solutions Corp CMC.CN ñ 0.10 0.07 C$0.03 35.71%

Cosan CZZ ò 22.38 23.27 -$0.89 -3.82%

Darling Ingredients DAR ñ 28.45 28.27 $0.18 0.64%

FutureFuel Corp. FF ò 11.86 12.14 -$0.28 -2.31%

GEVO GEVO ò 2.24 2.40 -$0.17 -6.88%

Green Plains GPRE ò 14.31 15.25 -$0.94 -6.16%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC ò 59.28 61.91 -$2.63 -4.25%

Neste NESTE.HE ò 30.72 31.19 -€0.47 -1.51%

Novozymes NVZMY ò 47.01 48.87 -$1.86 -3.81%

Pacific Ethanol PEIX ò 0.69 0.81 -$0.12 -15.18%

Renewable Energy Group REGI ò 25.33 27.89 -$2.56 -9.18%

REX American Resources REX ò 78.35 82.62 -$4.27 -5.17%

Valero Energy VLO ñ 95.18 95.13 $0.05 0.05%

Velocys VLS.L ñ 2.41 2.00 £0.41 20.65%

DJIA DJI ñ 28,956.90 28,868.80 $88.10 0.31%



Late last year, executives with ethanol producer Archer Daniels Midland touted possible demand from China as an important outlet for U.S. production. “China, if it moved toward an E10 national blend for the country, based on our calculations could easily buy a billion gal from the U.S.,” noted company CFO Ray Young.

He explained that the “deficit is fairly significant in terms Chinese production relative to overall demand.”

U.S. fuel ethanol exports to China in 2018 only amounted to about 52.9 million gal, but the industry hopes the recent phase one deal with China will include ethanol and ameliorate the hefty tariffs it placed on U.S. ethanol in recent years.

Spencer Kelly, [email protected]

Stock Market Movers:

ADM in ‘advanced’ talks to sell or form JV for dry-mill ethanol plants

Archer Daniels Midland is in advanced talks that could lead to the sale or formation of a joint venture for its dry-mill ethanol plants, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

In a Wednesday interview with the news service, ADM CEO Juan Luciano said the company is now in negotiations with a small number of interested parties.

“We are advancing things with several different parties, and I can disclose right now that we are advanced in those discussions,” he told Bloomberg. “We want to find either the right buyer or the right partner for these things, and at this point in time, we haven’t made a decision, but we are close.”

In the interview, Luciano said that since he took the top spot at the company he has said ADM would focus on nutrition and food, rather than fuels. “I like ethanol as a product - I do believe there’s a lot of potential – I just don’t feel that that’s a business for us.”

The company in early 2016 said it had begun a strategic review of its three dry-mill plants that could include a sale. While the company doesn’t publicly disclose production capacities, the plants in Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois are believed to have a combined annual capacity of about 770 million gal.

ADM in September 2016 said it had received several bids for the plants, including both joint ventures and outright sales, but in early 2017 the company said it had determined that none of the proposals would provide enough return for investors.

In April 2019, it unveiled a plan to create an ethanol subsidiary to house the three dry-mill plant as margins for the biofuel remained depressed and in December moved the assets to the new subsidiary, Vantage Corn Processors.


Inside Washington:

House Dems offer plan for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

Democrats on the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee unveiled a draft climate plan last week that would put the country on a path to achieving zero-net carbon emissions by 2050 through a range of measures, including increased electrification of the transportation sector.

The CLEAN Future Act would direct EPA to set more-stringent emissions standards for all classes of vehicles, encourage funding for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, expand use of alternative transportation fuels and vehicles, and order the EPA to accelerate the approval of pathways for low-carbon alternative transportation fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), among other measures outlined in a memo.

For situations in which vehicle electrification options are technically infeasible or prohibitively expensive, the memo said federal support will be required to reduce entry-level barriers for next-generation fuels.

The legislation would require annually lower vehicle emission standards to reach the zero-emissions by 2050 target.

Further, the draft measure would give states flexibility over the near-term to customize transport sector goals to account for regional differences.

Other measures include low-carbon electrification of the power sector, moving to zero-energy buildings by 2030 and the establishment of a first-ever national climate bank.

Committee Chairman Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) introduced the CLEAN Future Act at a press event on Capitol Hill alongside Reps. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) and Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.). The lawmakers plan to release a detailed bill at the end of January after seeking input from interested parties.

“If we don’t take a lead on a lot of these initiatives, then we will be left behind,” Pallone said during a press conference last week.

Patrick Newkumet, [email protected]

Suncor asks court to review EPA denial of SRE petition

Canada’s Suncor Energy is suing EPA over the agency’s October determination that the company’s Commerce City, Colo., refining operations are not eligible for a small-refinery exemption (SRE) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).

The company on Dec. 23 asked the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn the agency’s Oct. 25 final decision denying its requests for economic hardship waivers for the 2018 RFS compliance year for its West and East refineries in Commerce City.



In its petition to the court, Suncor attached a redacted copy of EPA’s decision that found the company’s Colorado refineries were ineligible to receive SREs because “they function as a single refinery” with an average daily throughput that exceeded 75,000 bbl in 2017 and 2018.

Under the RFS, small refineries are defined as those with an average aggregate daily crude throughput of less than 75,000 bbl.

The two units, EPA said, had a combined daily throughput of 93,329 bbl in 2017 and 99,493 bbl in 2018.

EPA said that while the two refineries originally had separate operations when they were owned by two different operators, Suncor bought and modified each “to now operate as a single refinery.”

Suncor in 2005 expanded its Commerce City operations by purchasing an adjacent refinery from Valero Energy.

In addition, the agency said Suncor “routinely characterizes” the East and West refineries as a single operation in both public presentations and business reports.

The company’s website, the agency said, describes the Commerce City refinery as a “98,000-barrel-per-day refinery [that] produces gasoline, diesel and paving-grade asphalt” and the company’s 2018 annual report lists the facility as a “single 98,000 b/d refinery.”

EPA dismissed Suncor arguments that the East and West refineries should be considered separate facilities because they have separate EPA identification numbers under the agency’s gasoline and Title V air permitting programs, saying those IDs were issued when each unit was owned by the previous, separate owners.

Further, the agency said “it is important to note that Suncor failed to mention” that the East and West refineries are registered as a “single facility” under the agency’s diesel sulfur program.

“Based on the information available to EPA, including Suncor’s own statements, it is evident that the Suncor East Refinery and the West Refinery have been integrated to the point that they are now operated as a single refinery with an average daily crude oil throughput that exceeded 75,000 bbl in both 2017 and 2018,” the agency said.


In Key Commodity Markets:

In finished markets...Did the trials and tribulations in energy markets over the

first week-and-a-half of 2020 leave the key West Texas Intermediate crude futures price peak for the year already in the rearview mirror?

That peak-is-history supposition among some in the industry follows some sizable price swings brought on by a live-fire tensions between the U.S. and Iran – and the subsequent price slide as supply remained uninterrupted.

The market saw the biggest one-day intraday range in a little more than five years after Iran launched missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq, bringing with it potentially the year’s high trade in the U.S. benchmark crude. Shortly after headlines on the retaliatory strike hit, WTI futures on the NYMEX spiked to $65.65/bbl. Thereafter, and quickly, prices retreated by $6, and with it there is a case to be made that a little more than a week into the New Year the benchmark has already peaked for 2020.

Key Supply and Demand Statistics (thousand barrels)

Ethanol SupplyEthanol Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg

PADD 1 Inventories 7,384 6,695 7,212



PADD 4 Inventories 397 401 359


Total Inventories 22,463 21,035 22,812

Gasoline Production Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg

PADD 1 2,844 3,148 2,969

PADD 2 2,226 2,480 2,333

PADD 3 2,250 2,504 2,249

PADD 4 288 304 289

PADD 5 1,427 1,506 1,474

Total Production 9,035 9,942 9,314

Ethanol Production Ethanol Current Prev Mo 3-Yr Avg

PADD 1 730 703 766

PADD 2 28,654 27,095 29,127

PADD 3 623 611 830

PADD 4 429 366 431

PADD 5 505 457 596

Total Production 30,941 29,232 31,751

Gasoline Supply Gasoline Current Last Week 3-Yr Avg






Total Inventories 251,600 242,500 238,999



By Thursday, front-month February WTI eased a nickel at the settle and at $59.56/gal, after all the sound and fury in the market, that left it down $1.62 against the first trading day of the year. At the same time, March WTI settling at $59.44/bbl Thursday dipped 2cts on the day and $1.51 over the last week.

There remain a lot more trading days this year and geopolitical issues can arise at any time to impact the market, but the fundamental and technical outlooks are more likely to be headwinds than tailwinds for oil markets in the months ahead. Notably, the recent troubles with Iran did not disrupt in oil flows from the Middle East. The signal seems to be that the market needs an actual – and possibly extended – supply disruption for a price spike to last weeks, instead of hours or days as witnessed in the last couple run-ups.

A look at the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows speculators behaving like it is mid-spring, judging by the amount of length they are holding in WTI futures and options. In addition, it seems recently that WTI spending any time in the low $60s/bbl attracts a wave of producers looking to lock in prices.

Further, the technical side appears just as difficult for market bulls, according to noted technical analyst Walter Zimmerman. The latest price spike that took WTI to its $65.65/bbl high coincides quite nicely with Zimmerman’s bearish case resistance level at $65.35. Bulls will need a weekly close above that level to even entertain higher prices. “It’s like the bulls have been locked in a closet with their mouths duct-taped shut,” Zimmerman said.

Closer to the immediate, while tensions between the U.S. and Iran remained high at presstime, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. did not intend to escalate the situation any further.

Meantime, gasoline futures reflected WTI moves amid the tensions last week, as well. Front-month February RBOB settled the Merc up 0.39cts Thursday and at $1.6527/gal it dropped 5.15cts week-to-week. The last week included a midweek session in which the RBOB contract sold off 7.34cts

as it appeared the panicked run-up in the wake of U.S./Iran tensions was overdone.

March RBOB settling $1.631/gal Thursday inched up 0.33cts on the session but dropped 4.94cts week-to-week – and it also had a big midweek slid, losing 7.35cts over that session.

By Thursday, the light movements in futures trading left gasoline cash markets mostly slipping slightly lower across the country.

Gulf Coast spot CBOB trading at a 7.5ct discount to the Merc Thursday – compared to a 6.65ct discount a week ago – left outright cash values there at $1.5777/gal, or down 0.36cts for the day and 6cts lower over the week. Spot gasoline prices in the Gulf by Thursday sagged to some of the lowest marks in about a month.

Gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast region swelled by 5.4 million bbl for the EIA report week ending January 3 and at 91 million bbl in the region supply there outpaces both a year ago and the five-year average.

Meantime, CBOB trading in Chicago squeezed the discounts versus the Merc, to 7.25cts by Thursday. A week ago, the discount stood at a dime and at midweek it ran 8cts. The latest trading indicated prompt CBOB could fetch $1.5802/gal outright, which is up 1.14cts day-to-day but 2.4cts cheaper than a week ago.

Refinery utilization in the Midwest slid by 3.5 percentage points to 93.8% in the week ended Jan. 3, retreating from a 16-week high, according to EIA data. PBF Energy’s 188,000-b/d refinery in Toledo, Ohio, will undergo a turnaround of 40-50 days that will include work on a crude unit in February and FCC maintenance in March, according to an industry source.

Still, Midwest gasoline inventory climbed to more than 55 million bbl in the latest EIA report week, touching the highest inventory level for the region since March.

Nationwide, EIA recorded a fat 9.1-million-bbl week-to-week build in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, but it should be noted that such increases often appear in statistics for the last few days of one year and the first few of the next.

Note: OPIS Refined Spots and Ethanol averages are based on full-day prompt assessments for each market.

New York Chicago Los Angeles

Ethanol vs. Spot Unleaded and “BOBs” in Key Markets



At the same time, production of gasoline slid to 9.035 million b/d, a nearly four-year low. Imports slowed to 401,000 b/d, off another 72,000 b/d on the week. The two moves together more typically lead to inventory drawdowns, but EIA reported that gasoline stocks built every region of the country.

EIA’s implied gasoline demand measurement also reflected a big week-to-week drop, down 828,000 b/d, or 9.2%, and though demand erosion into the New Year is the norm in recent years, at 8.133 million b/d offtake showed 6.9% less than a year ago and ran near a three-year low.

At U.S. gasoline pumps, the nationwide price of regular unleaded averaged $2.595/gal by late last week, leaving rack-to-retail margins at 29.2cts/gal on average.

In natural gas...The latest weather reports point to some colder weather

after last week ended with a very mild turn in much of the country helped give some buying to futures contracts, but over the first week or so of the New Year gas markets generally did little more than tread water.

In cash trading, the key Henry Hub spot price had next-day trades around $2.01/mmbtu Thursday, a price that is up just a penny from the week-ago trading that kicked off the year. Chicago Citygate gas traded off 2cts on the day at $1.95/mmbtu, which is about 2cts more than it could be had a week ago. While Henry Hub gas values have lately hovered near decade-long lows for the start of a year, there are regions such as the Northeast where spot prices got a significant boost from a bout of very chilly weather last week.

By Thursday afternoon, NYMEX natural gas futures bound some buying on revamped forecasting for more cold weather

following a mild weekend in the East. Weather forecasts helped to dull the impact of EIA’s weekly inventory report that had just 44 bcf removed from U.S. gas supply – about 13%-14% less than most of the trade expected and well behind the 156 bcf five-year average draw for the week.

So far this withdrawal season, the average rate of disappearance from natural gas storage is 7% lower than the U.S. averaged over the previous five years. Compared to the same week last year, natural gas inventory is 19.8% higher and it also moved 2.4% up on the five-year inventory average, according to EIA.

Meantime, NYMEX natural gas futures selling stalled and even picked up some value Thursday. Front-month February gas settled the session at $2.166/mmbtu, up 2.5cts day-to-day and 4.4cts week-to-week. March natural gas climbing 1.4cts on the session at $2.148/mmbtu gained 5.5cts for the week.

The Merc’s six-month futures strip settled Thursday averaging more than $2.2023/mmbtu, up nearly 5.07cts week-to-week and holding a premium to Henry Hub cash prices that expanded 25.5% on the week to top 19.23cts.

In corn markets...Chicago Board of Trade corn futures settled front-month

March corn down by a penny Thursday and at $3.8325/bu the contract slumped 8.25cts through the first trading week of 2020.

At the same time, May corn dropped 8cts over the week after shedding 1.25cts Thursday and settling at $3.90/bu.

The U.S. corn market took some lumps over the first week of the year, though exports improved some and farmers had a measure of optimism due to the promise of a deal

Biodiesel Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal) Ethanol Gross Margins for Midwestern Plants ($/gal)

*Biodiesel production margin calculated from cash feedstock costs and sales values for soy methyl ester biodiesel plants and are estimates of industry trends under current market

conditions. Profits for any given biodiesel plant could be higher or lower.

*Dry Milling margin calculated from cash feedstock and product sales values for wet and dry-mill plants and are an estimate of the industry trend under current market conditions.

Profits for any given ethanol plant could be higher or lower.

Plant Profitability



National Renewable Fuel Feedstock/Co-Product Price Index

*refined, bleached, deodorized **free fatty acids ***high protein Data provided, in part, by World Energy, www.worldenergy.net

with China. Still, much of the futures trading hinged on positioning ahead of USDA’s monthly forecasts due out at the end of last week and many in the grain market continued to hold a “wait-and-see” attitude over deal details the Phase One deal with China.

It is widely expected that details of the Phase One deal with highly anticipated agricultural commitments from China will emerge this week.

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for January ultimately reported more U.S. corn production than generally expected by traders and

analysts. It also did not cut end-of-the-season stockpiles by anywhere near expectations.

On the production side, rather than paring the yield forecasts USDA notched it 1 bu/acre higher than it forecasted last month, at 166 bu/acre for the 2019-2020 marketing year. And rather than trimming expected output the expected 1.3% or so, USDA bumped it up 0.23% at 13.692 billion bu. The USDA’s 2019-2020 ending stocks forecast at 1.892 billion bu did cut it by less than 1% from last month, it far outdid pre-report forecasts by 7% or more.

Feedstock/Co-product Location/Source Spot Price Previous 4-Wk. Avg.

Palm Olein US/Gulf Coast $0.4025/lb $0.3950 $0.3866

Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois $0.3444/lb $0.3504 $0.3422

Soybean Oil - Crude Degummed Central Illinois - USDA $0.3452/lb $0.3534 $0.3442

Soybean Oil - RBD* Central Illinois - USDA $0.3759/lb $0.3819 $0.3737

Canola Oil West Coast $0.4264/lb $0.4324 $0.4242

Canola Oil Midwest $0.4039/lb $0.4099 $0.4017

Corn Oil - Crude Midwest $0.315/lb $0.3150 $0.3150

Corn Oil - Refined Midwest $0.41/lb $0.4150 $0.4138

Corn Oil - Distillers Midwest $0.2447/lb $0.2413 $0.2398

Beef tallow Chicago $0.26/lb $0.2600 $0.2600

Choice White Grease Chicago $0.26/lb $0.2450 $0.2488

Poultry Fat (Low FFA)** Southeastern US $0.285/lb $0.2850 $0.2813

Yellow Grease Illinois $0.215/lb $0.2000 $0.2038

Methanol US Gulf Coast $0.86/gal $0.8000 $0.8050

Soy Meal (Hi-Pro)*** Illinois Truck $291/ton $306.00 $301.00

Corn Central Illinois $3.98/bu $4.1000 $4.0550

Soybeans Central Illinois $9.51/bu $9.7400 $9.5625

Crude Glycerin (80%) FOB Midwest $0.075/lb $0.0700 $0.0706

DDG-S (Distillers Dried Grains w/ Solubles) Eastern Cornbelt - USDA $152.75/ton $153.8750 $153.0938

Corn Kansas City - USDA $3.9075/bu $3.9900 $3.9431

ULSD OPIS National Average $1.8932/gal $1.9780 $1.9634

RBOB OPIS National Average $1.7288/gal $1.7301 $1.7266

Ethanol OPIS National Average $1.3062/gal $1.3741 $1.3767

Unleaded RFG OPIS National Average $1.5962/gal $1.6579 $1.6568

Natural Gasoline Mt. Belvieu Non-TET $1.1925/gal $1.2300 $1.2325

Natural Gasoline Conway In-well $1.17/gal $1.2075 $1.1994

Ethanol RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.155/RIN $0.1475 $0.1360

Ethanol RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.095/RIN $0.0863 $0.0741

Cellulosic RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.81/RIN $0.8000 $0.8100

Cellulosic RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.81/RIN $0.8000 $0.8100

Biodiesel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.41/RIN $0.4000 $0.4163

Biodiesel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.455/RIN $0.4050 $0.4288

Advanced Biofuel RINs (Current Year) OPIS National Average $0.405/RIN $0.3950 $0.4113

Advanced Biofuel RINs (Previous Year) OPIS National Average $0.45/RIN $0.4000 $0.4238

CA LCFS Carbon Credit California $179.5/mt $180.0000 $179.0625

CA LCFS Carbon Intensity California $0.0146/CI $0.0147 $0.0146



“Exports are reduced 75 million bu, to 1.775 billion,” predicted USDA, adding that it is “reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012-2013 marketing year.”

The agency kept its forecast for the 2019-2020 average farm price for corn unchanged from the month before, at $3.85/bu, which would be up 6.7% from the previous 2018-2019 marketing year.

In cash markets, reports are that corn availability remains thin, with farmers opting to hold onto the grain at current values. Kansas City No. 2 truck yellow corn prices eased 8.25cts over the last week, at $3.8825-$3.9325/bu. Chicago spot No. 2 yellow corn at $3.9525-$3.9625/bu also added 8.25cts week to week.

In biodiesel...Biodiesel pricing largely settled lower this week after the

resumption of the $1/gal biodiesel tax credit (BTC) caused a multiweek increase.

Traders reported a busier market in the new year as many sought to capitalize on inflated prices stemming from the five-year extension of the BTC, but uncertainty settled this week as spot prices have since leveled out.

Over the past week, biodiesel at the rack fell 3.6cts week-to-week to $3.67/gal, while wholesale petroleum diesel took a slight fall of 5.44cts to end the week at $1.982/gal. The premium for biodiesel at the rack over petroleum diesel can largely be mitigated by 2020 D4 RINs now trading around 41cts/RIN, granting B100 a bonus credit value of around 61.5cts/gal.

Industry sources report an uptick in trading after the holiday lull but expect a slow few months ahead for B100. Sources also indicate the price jump stemming from the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit has likely hit its ceiling, though unforeseen hikes in feedstock or RIN prices could push higher prices in the future.

Soybean oil prices continued a weeks-long swell, driving expansion of BOHO, or the bean oil-heating oil spread, by

3.2cts week-on-week to around 58.15cts by Thursday. This could signal possible loss in demand for blending of biodiesel due to rising output costs, as the BOHO differential has steadily risen over the past few weeks.

Traders say there may be a good deal of biodiesel on railcars in limbo looking for trades, despite more physical trading of B99 of late.

In DDGs...Corn losses appeared to weigh on distillers dried grain

values through the last week although in many cases spot price moves looked mild and mixed. Reports have DDG availability looking steady even though production is lately off, down nearly 2% by some since first half of December, by some accounts.

FOB prices for DDGs out of Iowa running $135-$150/ton remained unchanged from the week before, while Minnesota DDGs ran mixed, up $2 to down $3 with a $135-$142 price range over last week. Eastern Corn Belt quotes did not budge off the $140-$170 range the region reported the previous week.

Nebraska DDGs also had a mixed showing last week at $150-$171, trimming $4 from the top end of pricing but also adding $2 to the cheaper values. Kansas DDGs still running from $145-$180 held steady for another week.

Meantime, in delivered markets prices turned a little more to the discounts over last week. CIF NOLA New Orleans DDGs from $176-$188 ran flat to $6 lower week-to-week. In the Pacific Northwest, DDGs dropped from $2 to $4 at $198-$210, while California DDGs priced $199-$208 shed $1 to $2 week to week.

In natural gasoline...The Non-TET natural gasoline price in Mt. Belvieu,

Texas, retreated to an average $1.1925/gal by Thursday, down nearly 3.1% week-to-week from an average $1.23/gal traded the first trading day of the New Year. At the same time, the NYMEX front February RBOB futures contract dropped 3.02%.

European Biodiesel Spot Markets

Rotterdam FAME ($/gal) Rotterdam RME/Gasoil ($/gal)



It’s a new year and the markets are showing a new way to evaluate the pricing of the products. Traditionally, an armed conflict between the United States and a Middle Eastern country – a noted oil producer – would send prices skyrocketing. Last week, however, the killing of a top Iranian military commander and the subsequent missile attacks by Iran against U.S.-held bases in Iraq produce nothing lasting – a mild surge in prices which then followed by a sharp selloff.

The seeming contradiction of a potential threat to oil supplies that produces a downturn in prices could prove to be a major obstacle to any bullish market trends.

Winter is when natural gasoline and RBOB futures take a step back to propane and normal butane as favored products and the fact that news of an escalating conflict failed to boost prices – and actually prices tumbled after the initial quick reaction – will likely mean that natural gasoline could be entering into a bear market with the $1.23/gal level that greeted the New Year serving as resistance.

In ultra-low-sulfur diesel...Total distillate inventory for the EIA report week ending

January 3 notched a solid build with stock levels increasing by 5.3 million bbl. Despite the strong addition over the latest report week, total distillate storage levels continued to run more than 10 million bbl behind the five-year average.

In fact, distillate storage levels over the last two-weeks, distillate inventory is up just over 14.1 million bbl, and storage levels have expanded in six of the last seven weeks – puffing up nationwide supplies by more than 23 million bbl.

The ultra-low-sulfur diesel segment swelled nearly 6.159 million bbl week-to-week, to 123.48 million bbl, but that is still 0.7% behind the same time last year. During the most recent week, the Midwest and Gulf Coast delivered the largest diesel builds with the Gulf Coast increasing ULSD holdings by 3.843 million bbl even as distillate exports ramped up by roughly 250,000 b/d, to 1.428 million b/d.

The East Coast did show a small dip in ULSD inventories of 152,000 bbl, and it appears that some of the tightness may

be shifting from the Central Atlantic to the Lower Atlantic. The 10.51 million bbl of ULSD stocks in the Lower Atlantic represents a little more than a 1 million-bbl draw week on week as it sees likely supplies were shifting further north with the Central Atlantic and New England building 196,000 bbl and 681,000 bbl respectively over the week.

Although the weekly reading on distillate demand may look soft at 3.373 million b/d, EIA’s weekly count also has it up by 318,000 b/d from the week before and running 418,000 b/d higher than the same week last year on year.

European, Brazilian and CBI Markets:

RME FAME Ethanol T2

Rotterdam $3.72 $2.78 $2.77/€2.49

Prices in U.S. $/gal., 1/9/20. Data supplied by F.O. Licht, a unit of IHS Markit.

European MarketsU.K. drivers used record quantities of biodiesel in the third

quarter last year, provisional data from the government show.

Biodiesel consumption climbed 29% to 504 million liters (133 million gal) from 391 million liters during third-quarter 2018. It marked the highest quarterly consumption figure and was 22% more than the old record set the previous quarter.

A record high was also reached in the quarter in terms of proportion of combined diesel road fuel (hydrocarbon and biodiesel components). Biodiesel made up 6.5% of total diesel road fuel during the third quarter, according to the government, up from 5% a year earlier.

Overall, liquid biofuels (biodiesel and bioethanol) made up 5.8% of road fuels compared with 4.9% during the same quarter a year earlier. Biodiesel represented 72% of biofuels consumption, while bioethanol accounted for the remainder.

Bioethanol consumption fell around 2% in the third quarter of 2019 to 193 million liters from 197 million liters a year earlier. But the fuel held its percentage makeup of combined gasoline (hydrocarbon and bioethanol components), contributing 4.7% in both Q3 2019 and Q3 2018.

Brazil and CBI Ethanol Spot

Anhydrous Ethanol FOB Santos vs. NYH, Tampa Spot ($/gal) Anhydrous vs. Hydrous FOB Santos ($/gal)

Brazil ethanol is anhydrous FOB Santos and includes a transportation fee and tax.



• • •

Netherlands-based fuel supplier FinCo Fuel plans to acquire a majority stake in GoodNRG, the holding company of renewable fuels pioneer GoodFuels also based in the Netherlands, the companies announced.

They said that the acquisition will enable GoodFuels to tap into the complementary sourcing, supply management and logistics expertise of the wider FinCo Fuel Group.

Both parties expect to contribute to a further reduction of CO2.

GoodFuels’ product is a direct replacement for heavy fuel oil, it says, containing no sulfur and 90% less carbon when compared to traditional fossil-based fuels such as heavy fuel oil.

• • •

British Airways is starting 2020 by offsetting carbon emissions on all of its flights with a goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 while also planning to build a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facility in England, the airline said.

The airline began offsetting all of its passengers’ emissions flying within the U.K. starting on Jan. 1 and signed an agreement with Velocys for the SAF facility in Immingham.

CEO Alex Cruz said British Airways is “leading the way in the development of SAF and has signed a partnership with renewable fuels company Velocys to build a plant which will convert household and commercial waste into renewable sustainable jet fuel to power our fleet, a first for the U.K. and the first time an airline has done this in Europe.”

The airline plans to invest $400 million on sustainable fuel development over 20 years.

Market updateBiodiesel prices this week had RME FOB ARA with a bid-

ask range of $990-$1,010/mt. SME FOB ARA’s range was $865-$880/mt. PME FOB ARA had a range of $770-$785/mt. FAME 0 FOB ARA’s range was at $825-$840/mt.

Data is supplied by F.O. Licht, a unit of IHS Markit.Michael Schneider, [email protected]

Brazil and CBI MarketsAnhydrous Ethanol $2.1766-$2.3280 Hydrous Ethanol $2.0820-$2.1198(FOB Santos, 1/9/20, prices in U.S. $/gal.)

U.S. ethanol exports in November totaled 107.3 million gal, down 4.9% from 112.8 million gal exported in October, figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) show.

The figures represent all ethanol exports minus undenatured ethanol for beverage use.

Canada had been the top destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports from June through October. However, in November, Brazil became the No. 1 destination, with 27.0 million gal of undenatured fuel ethanol shipped to that country (up from 11.7 million gal in October).

A 20% tariff will be slapped on non-Mercosur ethanol imports into Brazil beyond a certain quota, and some of the U.S. volumes shipped to Brazil in November probably managed to skirt the tariff.

From Aug. 31, 2019, through Feb. 29, 2020, the tariff-free ethanol import quota is 200 million liters (52.8 million gal). This is the period when mills in Brazil’s Northeast region are harvesting sugarcane and producing ethanol.

Brazil’s imports of U.S. ethanol from September through November amounted to 145.1 million liters (38.3 million gal), or 72.5% of the tariff-free quota for the September-February period, figures from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Commerce (Secex) show.

The DOC figures also show the U.S. as having imported 25.4 million gal of undenatured fuel ethanol from Brazil in November, up from 21.9 million gal imported from Brazil in October. Brazilian fuel ethanol typically goes into California, where sugarcane ethanol enjoys a lower Carbon Intensity rating than corn ethanol under the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

The uptick in imports of Brazilian fuel ethanol came despite NuStar Energy LP’s Selby fuel terminal in the San Francisco Bay area having remained out of operation since the explosions and fire that hit the facility on Oct. 15.

The hobbled NuStar terminal has impeded deliveries of Brazilian fuel ethanol into California as tankers carrying the fuel scramble for other outlets. “Vessels have actually been coming in for partial discharges and then going back out to anchorage awaiting open tank space to come back in,” one market source told OPIS on Jan. 3, noting that parties are racking up considerable demurrage costs in the process.

Canada in November was the No. 2 destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports, with 25.3 million gal of denatured fuel ethanol and 0.4 million gal of undenatured fuel ethanol shipped there. Canada also was the destination for 0.2 million gal of denatured ethanol for non-fuel use.

November saw the first 2019 exportation of fuel ethanol to Turkey, with 1.0 million gal of undenatured fuel ethanol getting shipped there.

Market UpdateEx-mill ethanol prices in Brazil remain considerably higher

year on year.

OPIS already has reported that ex-mill hydrous ethanol prices in December hit historic highs, surpassing R$2/liter for the first time ever – both in the week ended Dec. 6 and the week ended Dec. 27.

Ex-mill hydrous ethanol prices firmed further in the week ended Jan. 3, with the University of São Paulo’s CEPEA economic research center assessing it at R$2.0454/liter, or 22.7% higher than the year-earlier assessment of R$1.6673/liter.



As for anhydrous ethanol, CEPEA assessed that fuel’s ex-mill value at R$2.2218/liter for the week ended Jan. 3, or 21.2% higher than the year-earlier assessment of R$1.8328/liter.

In Brazil, hydrous ethanol competes with gasoline at the pump, and anhydrous ethanol is blended into gasoline at a blend rate of 27%. Soaring gasoline prices in 2018 encouraged Brazilian motorists to fill up with hydrous ethanol, and the biofuel remained competitively priced in 2019 in many key Brazilian markets.

Anhydrous ethanol is what the U.S. exports to Brazil, so firmer anhydrous prices will strengthen the pull on U.S. volumes.

Brad Addington, [email protected]

News of the Week:

US ethanol inventory surges amid sinking demand, EIA reports

Ethanol inventory levels in the U.S. led by fat builds in east-of-the-Rockies storage surged to the highest level since September as the Energy Information Administration also indicated that ethanol blending plunged to the lowest level in two years.

The 1.428 million-bbl net week-to-week build in nationwide ethanol stocks that EIA reported this morning for the week ending Jan. 3 is one of the largest one-week additions on record with the agency, up 6.8% on the week as well as taking supply to a 14-week high. Still, compared to the same year-ago week inventory is off by 3.4%, according to EIA.

The East Coast contributed 689,000 bbl to U.S. inventory last week, at 7.384 million bbl, while Gulf Coast inventory climbing to 3.757 million bbl gained 155,000 bbl over the week.

The Midwest has been a focal point for any growth in ethanol inventory even as nationwide stocks moved lower through latter December, and last week a 514,000-bbl build in the region marked the third big stock addition there in a row, adding 1.256 million bbl to regional inventory over that time. Even so, at 8.126 million bbl, Midwest supply still trailed 3.8% behind year-ago stocks.

US DDG exports rebound with 19.9% jump in November: USDA

U.S. exports of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in November rebounded from an October slump by roughly 151,590 mt, or about 19.9%, to 911,569 mt, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released this month by the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service Global Agricultural Trade System.

DDGS are a byproduct of corn-based ethanol production and are used mostly as livestock feed. In October, 759,979 mt were exported.

U.S. DDGS exports in November were about 10.2% below the 1,014,768 mt exported in November 2018.

Mexico was the top foreign buyer of U.S. DDGS in the month, with the country taking 200,669 mt, up about 26.5%, from the 147,471 mt it bought in October.

Harvestone adds CORN LP plant to marketing platform

Franklin, Tenn.-based Harvestone Group has added CORN LP, a 75 million-gal/yr ethanol plant in Goldfield, Iowa, to its marketing, logistics and trading platform, the company said recently.

CORN LP transitions to Harvestone’s platform, joining DENCO II, a 36 million-gal/yr ethanol plant in Morris, Minn., which joined last July.

Previously, in December 2018, Harvestone added its first four ethanol production facilities: Iroquois Bio-Energy, Siouxland Energy, Red River Energy and Quad County Corn Processors, which combine for over 210 million gal/yr of production.

“CORN LP is excited to make the transition to Harvestone,” said Brady Hess of CORN LP. “It was an easy decision for us to make given the value proposition of the platform. This will give us what we believe an ethanol marketer should be, true alignment with opportunities to participate in upside from trading and optimization. In this margin environment, fractions of cents matter and we see the HG team focused and willing to do the extra work required to capture it on behalf of CORN LP.”

Harvestone said the facilities are exclusively marketed through the Harvestone platform under five-year agreements and represent another volumetric milestone for the company. Harvestone said it is seeking future growth with several more plant transitions and expansions throughout the supply chain over the next several months.

ICE LCFS futures activity jumped 177% in 2019: dataVolumes for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) futures

contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a 177% increase in 2019 from 2018 as activity on the platform ramped up, according to ICE data.

In 2019, total volumes for the ICE LCFS futures contract totaled 11,444 lots or 1.444 million credits. Those figures were up from 4,128 lots, or 412,800 credits, in 2018, when the contract was launched in May.

ICE LCFS futures are indexed off of OPIS LCFS price assessments.

ICE LCFS futures have already seen a substantial jump in the early part of 2020 with heavy trade activity seen on the platform. On Monday, there were 33 trades executed for a total of 495 lots or 49,500 credits. The trades ranged from prices as high as $200.50/credit for February 2020 transfer to as low as $190.50/credit for as far down the curve as December 2022 transfer.



US House subcommittee approves bills to promote alternative fuel use

The U.S. House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on energy passed two bills recently that would require the Department of Energy to reduce the use of petroleum-based fuels in urban areas by providing incentives for increased use of alternative transportation fuels and promote further electrification of the transportation sector.

The measures, the Clean Cities Coalition Program (H.R. 5518) and the No Exhaust Act (H.R. 5545) now head to the full committee for a vote.

H.R. 5518, introduced by Rep. Donald McEachin, D-Va., in December, would direct DOE to carry out a new iteration of a 25-year-old program designed to encourage the purchase and use of alternative fuel vehicles and alternative fuels, including by fleet managers, encourage and expedite infrastructure for alternative fuel vehicles, and educate and assist city residents on petroleum fuel reduction strategies.

The legislation would also direct the agency to provide competitive monetary grants to eligible projects and would authorize the expenditure of $50 million in fiscal year 2020, $60 million in FY2021, $75 million in FY2022, $90 million in FY2023 and $100 million in FY2024.

H.R. 5545, sponsored by Chairman Bobby Rush, D-Ill., would promote greater development and manufacturing of fuel efficient and zero emission vehicles.

December Oregon CFP credit prices hit second-highest on record: DEQ

Average prices for Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP) credits in December firmed to their second-highest levels on record, recent Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) data show.

The volume-weighted average price per credit in December was $161.41/credit, up $3.96 from $157.45/credit in November. In September, prices averaged $165.24/credit, which was the highest level since DEQ began publishing the monthly summaries in April 2017. The prices in December ranged from a transfer at $148.58/credit (at a volume of 949 credits) to $165.98/credit (at a volume of 7,500 credits). There were two transfers reported at $0 for a total of 5,000 credits.

DEQ reported 17 transfers for a total of 59,185 credits in December, after posting 13 transfers for 53,703 credits in November.

RenovaBio: Distributors’ 2020 decarbonization goals taking shape

Brazil’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) has announced preliminary 2020 decarbonization targets for fuel distributors under RenovaBio, the program that aims to

reduce Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions by incentivizing the production and use of biofuels.

Under RenovaBio, producers and importers of biofuels will issue Decarbonization Credits (CBios). The number of CBios that each party is able to issue will depend on the volume of biofuel sold and the party’s environmental/energy efficiency rating.

The CBios will be bought on an exchange by fuel distributors, which will be required to achieve individual decarbonization goals based on their market share.

While the final decarbonization goals won’t be published until later (by March 31), the preliminary targets call for distributors to purchase a total of 28.7 million CBios in 2020.

LCFS weekly prices retreat in first week of 2020: CARB

Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) average credit transfer prices in the week ended Jan. 5 moved lower and volumes did as well, according to data released Jan. 7 by the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

The volume-weighted average price was down $2.51 week on week at $195.59/credit, still within $4 of $199.39/credit hit in October, which was the highest level on record since the report began in May 2016.

Additionally, the average price for transfers categorized by CARB as Type 1 transfers averaged $202.80/credit, up 99cts from the previous week.

LCFS prices have retreated away from to the credit cap around $213/credit in recent weeks. OPIS on Tuesday assessed the LCFS credit at $205.50/credit, unchanged on the week but still within $4 of an all-time high of $209/credit last hit on Nov. 14.

The high transfer in CARB’s reporting week was at $208.50/credit at a volume of 3,058 credits. The low transfer was at $150/credit at a volume of 348 credits. The largest transfer of the reporting week was at 25,000 credits for $193/credit.

Clariant cellulosic ethanol technology eyed for planned Chinese plant

Clariant has signed a licensing agreement for its trademarked sunliquid cellulosic ethanol technology with a joint venture that intends to build a commercial plant in China, the Swiss specialty chemicals company said recently.

A license for the technology was granted to the venture put together by Chinese green energy company Anhui Guozhen Group and multinational engineering company Chemtex Chemical Engineering with the hopes of producing cellulosic ethanol from agricultural residues.


© Copyright by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit, 2099 Gaither Road, 5th Floor, Rockville, MD 20850-4089. Ethanol & Biodiesel Information Service (EBIS) is published weekly. OPIS does not guarantee the accuracy of these prices. Reproduction of this report without permission is prohibited. To order copies or a limited copyright waiver, contact OPIS Customer Service at 888.301.2645 (U.S. only), +1 301.284.2000 or [email protected]. Ethanol pricing inquiries, contact Spencer Kelly, 301.284.2022. Biodiesel inquiries, contact Tanya Lee, 301.284.2135. STAFF: Brad Addington, Edgar Ang, Jeff Barber, Ben Brockwell, Jennifer Brumback, Donna Calabria, Denton Cinquegrana, Brian Crotty, Jordan Godwin, Beth Heinsohn, Michael Kelly, Spencer Kelly, Tom Kloza, Diane T. Miller, Jessica Nesterak, Renee Ortner, Michael Schneider, Mary Welge, Molly White


The plant would have an annual capacity of 50,000 metric tons (17.9 million gal) of cellulosic ethanol, with an option to double the capacity in a second phase.

The JV plans to build the plant at a greenfield site in the eastern Chinese city of Fuyang on land owned by Guozhen.

“Detailed project evaluations and preparations for the engineering phase are well underway,” Clariant said. “The project execution is pending a final agreement of certain government contracts.”

Clariant Chief Operating Officer Hans Bohnen said China represents “a core growth market,” adding that the “country is aiming to achieve a 10% bioethanol content in transportation fuels nationwide in the next few years. These regulatory commitments offer substantial growth potential for our sunliquid technology by spurring demand for advanced biofuels.”

Shell, World Energy collaborate to increase sustainable aviation fuel supply

Shell Aviation and World Energy recently announced a collaboration to develop a scalable supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The agreement is slated to be a multiyear collaboration, with both companies noting the path to lower carbon emissions in aviation requires long-term commitment and collaboration.

As part of the collaboration, the companies also announced they have initiated the supply of SAF to Lufthansa Group at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). The supply will reduce Lufthansa’s carbon emissions on intercontinental flights on three routes operated by Deutsche Lufthansa and Swiss International Air Lines from SFO to Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich.

The deal means up to 1 million gallons of SAF will be supplied to Lufthansa over its duration. It is also the largest contracted SAF volume to be delivered to SFO since the airport announced its plan to expand the use of SAF in its operations last year.

“Alongside new technologies and high quality carbon credits, sustainable aviation fuel -- at scale -- has a

significant role to play in reducing carbon emissions for the aviation industry,” Anna Mascolo, Vice President of Shell Aviation, said in a statement.

The SAF is produced by World Energy at its refinery in Paramount, Calif., from a feedstock of agricultural waste fats and oils.

JetBlue to offset CO2 from all US flights, use SAF at SFO

JetBlue will begin offsetting carbon emissions from all U.S. flights in July and will start by mid-2020 using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) on flights from San Francisco International Airport (SFO), the New York-based-based carrier said recently.

The company said the two commitments underscore its “long-term strategy to ensure a more sustainable business for crewmembers, customers, shareholder and communities” it serves.

In addition, it said the announcements build on its existing carbon reduction efforts that include investments in fuel-saving technologies and aircraft and advocating for a more fuel-efficient air traffic control system.

“Air travel connects people and cultures and supports a global economy, yet we must action to limit this critical industry’s contributions to climate change,” CEO Robin Hayes said in a statement. “We reduce where we can and offset where we can’t. By offsetting all our domestic flying, we’re preparing our business for the lower-carbon economy that aviation – and all sectors – must plan for.”

The airline said the new offset program will expand on its existing work with Carbonfund.org, a U.S.-based carbon reduction nonprofit, that offsets emissions to balance flights during specific periods each year.

Under the scaled-up offsetting plan, JetBlue also said it will work with EcoAct, a privately held international project developer, and South Pole, a company that specializes offset project and technology finance.

It is expected to offset an additional 7 million to 8 million metric tons of annual emissions.

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