Improving Jobs of Smallholder Women

Farmers: Impact Evaluation Strategy

World Bank

2017

The publication of this study has been made possible through a grant from the Jobs Umbrella

Trust Fund, which is supported by the Department for International Development/UK AID, and

the Governments of Norway, Germany, Austria, the Austrian Development Agency, and the

Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.

© 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.

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ImprovingJobsofSmallholderWomenFarmers

ImpactEvaluationStrategy

ThisprojectevaluatesanovelpolicyinterventioninruralMozambiquethatsupplementsmarket-orientedagriculturalextensionservicestargetedtowomenfarmerswithapilottrainingonnon-cognitiveskills.Therandomizedcontrolledtrialcomprises3,000womenin150ruralcommunities.The150communitieswillberandomlyallocatedintothreegroupswith50communitieseach.Thefirstgroupof50communitieswillreceivetrainingonagronomyandbasicbusinesstechniques.Thesecondgroupof50communitieswill receive the same agronomy training plus training on non-cognitive skills. The third group of 50communitieswillnotreceiveanytrainingandwillthusformacomparisongroup.Thisinterventionseekstodeepen the impactof a feeder road rehabilitationprogram ledbyanactiveWorldBankproject inMozambique(IGPP–P113971)onemploymentandearningopportunitiesinruralareas,whilefacilitatingthecreationofevidenceonjobschallengesandsolutions.

1.Motivation

Manywomeninsub-SaharanAfricaappeartohaverestrictedaccesstohigherearningjobsandinputsthat facilitate investments in their livelihoods. In particular, in rural areas women are thought to bedisproportionallyaffectedbymarketfailures(e.g.limitedaccesstoinformation)andsocialnorms(e.g.onthecontroloffarmrevenue),whichlimittheirabilitytoparticipateinhighervalueagriculturalchains.

These barriers can dampen women’s personal motivation to exert themselves in the pursuit ofeconomically independent lives, further exacerbating gender gaps in economic opportunities. Animportant question is whether investments in non-cognitive skills enhancing personal initiative,aspirations,andthewilltoperseveretoovercomebarrierscanhelpwomenbreakawayfromsuchlow-empowermenttrap.Thisistheresearchquestionattheheartofthisproject,whichtodatehasreceivedlittleattention.Thisprojectevaluatesanovelpolicyinterventionthatsupplementsagriculturalextensionservicestargetedtowomenfarmerswithapilottrainingonnon-cognitiveskills.Akeypointoftheanalysiswillbetoexaminewhetherinvestmentsinnon-cognitiveskillsincreasefemaleparticipationinmarket-orientedagriculture.

Agrowing literature inpsychologyandeconomicsdocumentsthe importanceofnon-cognitiveskills indeterminingimportanteconomicoutcomes[e.g.Bowlesetal.2001,Heckmanetal.2006,Borghansetal.2008,LindqvistandVestman2011].Amongtheseskills,perseverance(“grit”)hasbeenshowntopredicteducationalandoccupationalachievement[Duckworthetal.2007,DuckworthandQuinn2009,Maddieet al. 2012, Eskreis-Winkler et al. 2014]. Optimism has been shown to affect occupational choices,portfoliochoices,andmarriagedecisions[PuriwandRobinson2007].Personalinitiative(definedasthecombination of self-startedness, proactivity and perseverance) has also been shown to predictentrepreneurshipandbusinesssuccess[Frese2009,Koopetal.2000,Freseetal.2007].Whilemostoftheexistingevidencecomesfromrichcountrysettings,anemergingliteraturedocumentsasignificantcorrelationbetweenthenon-cognitiveskillsofsmallholderfarmersandpositivefarmoutcomes inthe

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developingworld[LaajajandMacours2017,Montalvaoetal.2017,andAlietal.2017].

Thereareseveralreasonswhynon-cognitiveskillscanalsomatterinpoorruralsettings,inparticulartoengagementincommercialagriculture.Ingeneral,moreperseverantfarmersmightbemorepatient,andthusmorewillingtocopewiththelongtimelagsbetweeneffortsandrewardsassociatedwithcashcrops.Andperseverancecouldmanifestasthewilltocontinuethepursuitofcashcropsinthefaceofanewsetofrisksandchallenges.Moreoptimisticfarmerstendtoperceivetheoddstobeintheirfavor,andthusmightbemorewillingtotaketheincreasedriskanduncertaintyassociatedwithcashcrops.Farmersmorepassionateabouttheirworkmighthavedirectutilitybenefitsfromspendingtherequiredtimeandeffortfarmingcashcrops.Farmerswithaself-startingnatureandproactiveapproachdonotjustwaittoseewhatothersinthecommunitydo,buttheyrecognizeandadoptagriculturaltechnologieswithoutbeingtoldorwithoutanexplicitrolemodel.

Barrierstocommercialagriculturecanraisetheimportanceofnon-cognitiveskills.Anenvironmentwhereadversityisabsentmakesitlessnecessaryforfarmerstohaveahighdegreeofgritandpersonalinitiative.Womenarethoughttobedisproportionallyaffectedbymarketfailures(e.g.limitedaccesstoinformation)and social norms (e.g. on the control of farm revenue).Non-cognitive skills could thusbeparticularlyimportant for women farmers. Montalvao et al. [2017] document a positive, strong, and robustcorrelationbetweenthenon-cognitiveskillsofwomenfarmersandtheadoptionofacashcropinMalawi.Totheextentthatnon-cognitiveskillsaremalleable[e.g.Blattmanetal.2016,Allanetal.2016],policyinterventionsaimedatfosteringsuchskillsinruralsettingsmightthusbeparticularlyeffectiveiftargetedtowomen.

Giventhattheevidencesofarontherelationshipbetweennon-cognitiveskillsdevelopmentinAfricaandrural-leveloutcomesisbasedonnon-experimentalwork,theprojectwillpursuearandomizedcontrolledtrial(RCT)tolearnrigorouslyaboutthecausalrelation.

2.Intervention

TheexperimentwilltakeplaceinMozambique,whereagriculturecontributesmorethanaquarterofitsGDP and employs 80 percent of its labor force. As in most of sub-Saharan Africa however, marketorientationisstrikinglylow–especiallyforwomen–withmostofthefarmersspecializinginstapleorsubsistencecrops.Theagriculturalextensioninterventionwillhavetwotrainingcomponents,bothusingatrainingoftrainersapproach.Thefirstcomponentwillprovidetrainingonagronomyandbasicbusinesstechniques to build knowledge, enabling women farmers to produce and sell cash crops (hard-skillstraining). The second component will provide training on non-cognitive skills to help women staymotivatedandovercomethepsychologicalchallengesassociatedwithstartingandrunningacashcropbusiness(soft-skillstraining).

2.1.Hard-SkillsTraining

Thehardskillstrainingwillcombine36hoursofgrouptrainingsessionswithfour1-hourindividualtrainingsessions.Itwilltakeplaceoverthecourseoftwelvemonthsinlinewiththeagriculturalcycletoensurethatwomenfarmershavethenecessaryinformationandsupporttomakethecriticaldecisionsateach

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stageofthecycle.Theprocesswillbeginwithcommunicationandinvolvementofcommunityleadersinordertoproperlyroottheprojectlocallyandinvolvecommunityinterestandsupport.

Thegroup trainingwill consistof instruction reinforcedbyhands-onpracticeonademonstrationplotwithinthecommunitytoallowfarmerstoseetheresultsofbestfarmingpractices.Thecurriculumwillfocus on locally relevant farming best practices related to land preparation and planting, weeding,fertilizingandothernon-harvestactivities,andharvesting.1Thetrainingwillalsoincludebasicbusinessskills and commercial practices needed to manage farm production more effectively and for betterreturns.2Theindividualtrainingwilltakeplaceatthewoman’sfarmorhome.Thesevisitswillreinforcethegrouptrainingreceived,butwillalsoallowthetrainertotailortheinformationanddiscusstechnicalmattersspecifictothesituationofeachwoman.

Theproposedscheduleistodeliverthefirstsixgrouptrainingsessionsonamonthlybasis(i.e.onesessionpermonth) fromAugust to February, excluding themonth ofDecember. The seventh and last groupsessionwillbeinAprilandwillserveasarecapsessionduringwhichtheacquiredagriculturaltechniquesandbusinessskillswillbereviewed.TheindividualtrainingsessionswillstartinJulyandwillgraduallytakeplace of over the space of twelvemonths,with 3months apart between each of the four individualsessions.

2.2.Soft-SkillsTraining

Thesoftskillstrainingwillcomprisetwelve3-hourgrouptrainingsessions.Thebulkofthesesessionswilltakeplaceoverthecourseoffourweeks,priortothehard-skillstrainingsessions,inordertoenhancewomen farmers’personalmotivation toadopt the selected cash cropsbeforemost farmingdecisionsrelatedtocropportfoliochoicestakeplace.

Thistrainingcomponentwillbedevelopedbyateamofentrepreneurialpsychologists,andwillbebasedonsuccessfulPersonalInitiativetrainingforsmall-businessownersinurbanAfricancontexts[Camposetal.2017].Itwillfocusonequippingwomenwiththeabilitytotakeanactiveandself-startingapproachnecessarytostartandrunacashcropbusiness;persevereinthefaceofadversity;copewiththeincreasedrisk,uncertainty,andlongtime-lagsbetweeninvestmentsandreturnsassociatedwithcashcrops;andnavigate through possible intra-household tensions that can ensue in response to increased incomegenerationandparticipationinnon-traditionalactivitiesbywomenfarmers.Alltrainingmaterialswillbesuitedtoanilliterateandlesseducatedaudience.

Thetrainingsessionswillbedeliveredinagroupformatthroughgroupdiscussions,activities,casestudies,andsharedexperiences.3Afewtrainingsessionswilltakeplacefivetosixmonthslater,inordertoreviewandenhancetheacquiredskills.4Sinceitmightbeimportanttorefreshspecificsoftskillsthroughoutthefarming season (e.g. during negotiation with input suppliers and produce buyers, or during spousal

1Theseactivitieswillinclude,butwillnotbelimitedto:irrigationandwatersystem;seeding;qualityandcareoftheseeds;pestanddiseasecontrol;sprayingandhowtousesprayer;post-harvesttreatment;andunderstandingconservationagriculture.2Thebeneficiarieswilllearn,amongothersubjects,tocreateaproductionplan;toestablishandupdateproductionrecords(inputs,production,surplus,etc.);tolearntherisksassociatedwithproductionandthesolutionstobuildresilience;tounderstandthevaluechainofcropsintheirarea;andtobuildamarketingandcommercializationstrategy.3Thesoft-skillstrainingsessionswilltakeplaceatanappropriateassemblypoint(e.g.underatreeorinaroofedmeetingplace).Thispointwillbelocatedwithinthecommunityforeasyandfastaccessbythetrainees,andcouldbetypicallyusedforvillagemeetingsandcommunityevents.4Thefinaltrainingschedulewillbefinalizedjointlywiththeimplementingpartners.

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negotiationsoverfarmrevenues),afewtrainingsessionsmightbedeliveredintandemwiththehard-skillstraining.

The trainingof trainerswill startabout twomonthsbefore the intervention.The trainerswillbe localfemalecommunitymembers,conversantinlocallanguages.Thesewomenwillbeselectedbasedontheirnon-cognitive skills, popularity/status in their communities, agricultural and livestock knowledge, andbusinessskills.Thetrainersforthesoft-skillstrainingwillnotbethesameforthehard-skillstrainingsinorder to avoid contamination between the soft and hard skills training.5 In order to improve thesustainability of the training, the project will also establish the necessarymarket linkageswith input(seeds,fertilizer)suppliers,producebuyers(traders,processors,exporters),andfinance.

3.ResearchDesign

3.1.SampleSelection

ThisRCTisbuiltonanongoingimpactevaluationofafeederroadsrehabilitationprogramunderanactiveWorldBankproject(IGPP-P127303).Theroadsrehabilitationevaluationcombinesaspectsofthe(non-random)placementofthefeederroadsrehabilitationprogramwithbaselineandfollow-upsurveydata–in a difference-in-differences framework – tomeasure the effectiveness of better road infrastructureaimedatimprovingtheabilityof(maleandfemale)farmerstoselltheirproduceinthemarkets.Weseethis large-scale program as an ideal setting to test innovativemarket-oriented agricultural extensionservicestargetedtowomenfarmers–thushelpingthemtakeadvantageofbetterroad infrastructureconnecting their communities withmarkets. Annex 1 explains in detail the design of the rural roadsrehabilitationimpactevaluation.

5Forthehard-skillstraining,atotalof25trainerswillreachouttofourcommunitieseachandserveatotalof80womanfarmers.Therewillbe10additionaltrainersconductingthesoftskillstrainingto50identifiedcommunities.

Figure1.RCTLocation

Mozambique

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ArigorousRCTapproachwillbeusedtomeasuretheimpactsoftheagriculturalextensioninterventionsinMozambique.Thesamplecomprises3,000womenin150communities(20womenpercommunity)situatedalongfourfeederroads(R604,R605,R603,andN302)inthenortheasternpartofTeteprovince,Mozambique(seeFigure1).Thelengthofeachoftheseroadsisapproximately100kms.Thecommunitiesareequallydistributedalongthefourroads,withhalfofthemlocated0-2kmawayfromtheroadsandthe other half located 2-10 km away from the roads.6 Two of these roads (R604 and R605) will berehabilitatedundertheMozambiqueIGPPbetweenMay2017andDecember2018.Theothertworoads(R603N302)willnotberehabilitated.

The150communitieswillberandomlyallocatedintothreegroupswith50communitieseach(Figure2outlinesthedesign).Thefirstgroupof50communities(Treatment1)willreceivethehard-skillstrainingcomponentonly.Thesecondgroupof50communities(Treatment2)willreceivethehard-skillstrainingcomponentandthesoft-skillstrainingcomponent.Thethirdgroupof50communities(Controlgroup)willnotreceiveanytrainingandwillthusformacomparisongroup.Therandomallocationofcommunitiesacrossthethreeexperimentalarmswillbestratifiedbybothroadanddistancetoroad.

Figure2.RCTDesign

3.2.EconometricSpecification

Astrainingparticipationisvoluntary,notalleligiblewomenwilltake-uptheofferofreceivingthetraining,andwethereforefocusonintent-to-treat(ITT)impacts.Giventherandomassignmentofcommunitiesto

6RoadR604issituatedbetweenN304closetoMphuluallthewaythroughTsanganoanduptoUlongwe(100km).RoadR605issituatedbetweenUlongwe,throughDomueanduptoFurancungo(99.6km).RoadR603startsfromFurancungoandis74kmlongtowardthewest.RoadN302is160kmlong,butallthecommunitiesthatarepartoftheRCTstudyarespreadoutoveradistanceof50kmalongtheZambianborders.

150ruralcommunities

76communitiesAlongrehabilitated

roads

51communitiesHard-skillstraining

25communitiesSoft-skillstraining

25communitiesControlgroup

74communitiesAlongnon-rehabilitated

roads

50communitiesHard-skillstraining

25womenSoft-skillstraining

24communitiesControlgroup

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treatmentarms,itisstraightforwardtoestimatetheITTimpactsofthetraininginterventionsusingthefollowingOLSspecification,

𝑦 " #$,& = 𝛾* + 𝛾,𝑇$, + 𝛾.𝑇$. + 𝛾/𝑦 " #$,* + 𝛾0𝑥$ + 𝜀 " #$,& (1)

where𝑦 " #$,&isanoutcomeofinterestforhouseholdℎinvillage𝑣measureatmidlineorendline(𝑡 = 1or2).Index𝑖denotestheindividual(manorwoman)forindividualleveloutcomes.𝑇$,isadummyvariableequalto1forvillagesassignedtotreatment1group(hardskillstraining),and0otherwise.𝑇$.isadummyvariableequalto1forvillagesassignedtotreatment2group(hardskillstrainingandsoftskillstraining),and0otherwise.Toimprovethepowerofourdatasettodetectmeaningfultreatmenteffectswecontrolfor the baseline level of each outcome 𝑦 " #$,* [McKenzie 2012], as well as for the community-levelrandomizationstrata(roadanddistancetoroad)𝑥$[Dufloetal.2007].Weallowtheerrorterm𝜀 " #$,&tobeclusteredbycommunity𝑣.Theparametersofinterestare𝛾,and𝛾.,whichidentifythestandaloneimpactofthehardskillstrainingandthecombinedimpactofthehardskillstrainingandthesoftskillstraining.Thedifference,𝛾. − 𝛾,,identifiesthemarginalimpactofincorporatingsoftskillstrainingintoanagriculturalextensionprogram.

3.3.Data

Themainsourceofdatafortheimpactevaluationwillbeannualsurveystocollectcommunity,household,and parcel level data. The community questionnaire focus on village-level crop prices and access tomarkets.Surveysareadministeredtothehouseholdheadandhisorherspouse.

HouseholdsandcommunitieswerefirstsurveyedinApril-June2016(baseline).ThesamehouseholdsandcommunitieswillbeinterviewedagaininJune-July2018(midline),andinJune-July2019(endline).Fundspermitting, another roundof data collectionwill take place post-2019 in order to detect longer-termeffects.

Themainoutcomesofinterestcollectedthroughthesesurveysare:

(i) cognitiveandnon-cognitiveskills;(ii) womenempowermentandintra-householdbargaining;(iii) employmentincludingoff-farm;(iv) feederroadusageandaccesstomarkets;(v) agriculturalproductionandsales,cropchoices,inputusage,andfarmingpractices;(vi) householdandfarmassets;(vii) consumption.

Themoduleonnon-cognitiveskillswillbedesignedandvalidatedbyadedicatedteamofpsychologists.Itwillcomprisemultipleitemstappingtheconstructofpersonalinitiativespecifictopoorwomeninruralsettings.

3.4.PowerCalculations

Table1presentstheresultsofpowercalculationsusingdatafromthebaselinesurveyadministeredinApril-June2015.

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Table1.PowerCalculations

(1)Shareofproducesoldinthemarket

(2)Farmyields

(3)Non-cognitiveability[score=0-10]

(4)Samplesize[clusters]

Take-uprate: 100% 75% 50% 100% 75% 50% 100% 75% 50% Control 1,000[50]T1:Hardskillstraining 6.7pp 8.9pp 13.4pp 17.6% 23.4% 35.2% 3.3% 4.4% 6.6% 1,000[50]T2:Hardskills+Softskillstraining 6.7pp 8.9pp 13.4pp 17.6% 23.4% 35.2% 3.3% 4.4% 6.6% 1,000[50]T1+T2 5.8pp 7.7pp 11.6pp 15.3% 20.4% 30.6% 2.9% 3.9% 5.8% 2,000[100]

Meanoutcomeatbaseline .406 11,552 6.3 SDofoutcomeatbaseline .316 11,890 1.4 Intra-clustercorrelation .211 .123 .08 Notes:Datausedformeans,standarddeviations,andintraclustercorrelationscomesfromthebaselinesurveyfortheimpactevaluation.Calculationsarebasedonthenumberofobservationsatbaseline.Allpowercalculationsassumepower=0.8andsignificancelevel=0.05,tworoundsoffollow-updata,andANCOVAestimationmethod.Autocorrelation is setat0.3andconstantacross surveywaves.Thenon-cognitiveability is index isa continuousvariablebetween 0 and 10 (with higher values corresponding to higher ability), constructed from the woman’s level of agreement (1="strongly disagree" to6="strongly agree") with 32 statements tapping the constructs of grit, locus of control, idea generation, personal initiative, general self-efficacy,entrepreneurialidentity,needforautonomy,andgoalorientationtowardlearning.Examplesofstatementsforgritare:“IfinishwhateverIbegin”,“Setbacksdon’tdiscourageme”,or“Iamahardworker”.

Wefocusonshareofproducesoldinthemarket,farmyields,andnon-cognitiveabilityofwomenfarmers,whicharekeyoutcomesintheanalysis.Todealwith incompletetake-upofthetrainings,weconsiderthree alternative take-up scenarios: 100%, 75%, and 50% compliance. The results show that we arepoweredtodetecta6-12% increase in theshareofproducesold in themarket,a15-31% increase inyields,anda3-6%increaseinnon-cognitiveability.Theseresultsindicatethattheincreaseinstatisticalpowerfromhightake-upofthetrainingsissubstantial.Thesectiononriskswilldiscusssomestrategiesthatwillbeinputinplaceinordertoensurehighparticipationrates.

3.5.Timeline

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4.RiskAssessmentandMitigation

Thissectionoutlinesthemainanticipatedrisksandthestepsforeseentoavoidormitigatetheserisks.

Take-Up.Lowtake-upofthetrainingsreducesthestatisticalpoweroftheimpactevaluationtodetectmeaningfulimpacts.Toensurehighparticipationratesinthetrainings,thefollowingfourstrategieswillbeinputinplace.First,theprocesswillbeginwithcommunicationandinvolvementofcommunityleadersinordertoproperlyroottheprojectlocallyandinvolvecommunityinterestandsupportfortheplotofland. Second, all women surveyed at baseline (the targeted women), as well as their husbands, willreceiveddoor-to-doorsensitization(priorandduringthetraining)explainingthebenefitsofthetrainingandhighlightingitsbenefitstoallmembersofthehousehold.Third,thetargetedwomenwillreceivefarminputs, as well individual technical assistance at their farms free-of-charge, only conditional on theirparticipationinthetraining.Thisistypicaltoextensionservices’programs.Fourth,alltargetedwomenwill be notified in advance of the date and place of the (group and individual) training sessions, andattendancerecordswillbemaintainedforeverytrainingsession.Womennotshowingupwillbecalledagaintoparticipateintheremainingsessions.

Sustainability.Theinterventionwillhavelimitedimpactifthetargetedwomenfarmersarenoteffectivelyintegratedintotheselectedcashcropvaluechains.Tomitigatethisriskthefollowingthreeactionswilltakeplace.First,theimplementingfirmwillleadfieldvisitstothestudyareainordertogainadeeperunderstandingofthelocalagriculturalvaluechainsandidentifyone(ormultiple)suitablehigh-valuecashcrop(s)tobepromotedbytheintervention.Thechoiceofthecashcrop(s)willbebasedonmarketability,profitability,andabilitytoengagewomenfarmersinits(their)production/marketing.Second,duringtheinterventionperiod, the projectwill be responsible for procuring anddistributing the required inputs(seeds,fertilizer)inordertoallowtargetedwomentoputtheacquiredknowledgeintopractice.Third,inordertoensurethe long-termsustainabilityof the intervention, thenecessarymarket linkageswillbeestablishedwith(i)input(seeds,fertilizer)suppliers,(ii)producebuyers(traders,processors,exporters),and(iii)finance.

Contamination.Acommonriskinrandomizedexperimentsisspilloversfromtreatmenttocontrolgroups.In our setting, this could occur if for examplewomen targeted by the intervention share knowledgeacquiredduringthetrainingsessionswithotherwomeninthecommunity.Topreventcontaminationofthe control group, the impact evaluation will randomize at the community level, rather than at theindividuallevel.Theaveragedistancebetweenanypairofcommunitiesalongthesameroadis11-25km.Adedicatedfieldcoordinatorwhowillmonitortheimplementationtoensurethattheimplementationpartnerthatwilldeliverthetrainingadherestotheexperimentaldesign.

Inordertobettergaugethedifferentrisksinvolvedandeffectivelyprepareforthem,theimplementingfirmwill pilot the intervention in two nearby communities that are not part of the 150 communitiessurveyedatbaselineaspartoftheRCTstudy.Thepilotwilltestalltheactivitiesthatwillbeimplementedin the RCT communities, from mobilization, sensitization, and logistics, to the actual delivery of thetraining,andchannelingofproducetothemarkets. In linewiththeRCTstudydesign,oneofthePilotCommunitieswillpilotthehard-skillstrainingonly,whereastheotherPilotCommunitywilltestboththe

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hard-skillsandthesoft-skillstraining.ThepilotingofallthedifferentactivitiesineachPilotcommunitywilltakeplacebeforetheirscale-upintheRCTcommunities,toprovidetheimplementingpartnerwithenoughtimetofine-tuneandestablishbestpractices.

5.ResearchTeam

Name Title Organization EmailJoaoMontalvao* Economist WorldBank jmontalvao@worldbank.orgFranciscoCampos* SeniorEconomist WorldBank fcampos@worldbank.orgMarkusGoldstein LeadEconomist WorldBank mgoldstein@worldbank.orgMichealFrese Professor LeuphanaUniversity michfrese@gmail.comPedroCarneiro Professor UniversityCollegeLondon p.carneiro2008@gmail.comMichealGielnik Professor LeuphanaUniversity michael.gielnik@leuphana.deSvetlanaPimkina Analyst WorldBank spimkina@worldbank.orgAdiamHagosHailemicheal Analyst WorldBank ahailemicheal@worldbank.orgClaireBoxho FieldCoordinator WorldBank claire.boxho@gmail.com

Notes:*TeamTaskLeaders

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Koop,S.,DeReu,T.,Frese,M.2000.“Sociodemographicfactors,entrepreneurialorientation,personalinitiative, and environmental problems in Uganda”. In: M. Frese (ed.): Success and Failure ofMicrobusinessOwnersinAfrica:APsychologicalApproach.Westport,Ct.:Quorum,pp.55–76.

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Appendix:MozambiqueIGPP’sFeederRoadsRehabilitationImpactEvaluation

A.ConceptualBackground

Fewdoubt that the lack of appropriate rural road infrastructure plays a key role in the developmentprocess.Ruralroadconstructionandrehabilitation,includingtheupgradeoffeederroadslinkingupsmallrural communitieswith each other or to larger roads, is an increasingly common policy tool used bygovernmentsinSub-SaharanAfrica.Byreducingtransportationcosts,goodfeederroadscanimprovetheability of poor farmers to sell their produce in themarkets, thus raising the expected profitability ofcommercialagriculture.Itisalsopossiblethatlowertransportationcostscanleadtoincreasednonfarmemploymentopportunitiesinlocalfirmsandnearbyurbanareas.

Theeffectsofruralroadrehabilitationmightalsodifferwithrespecttogender.Forexample,traditionalgenderrolenormsmightdictatethatmenspecializeintheproductionandmarketingofcashcrops,andwomenshouldfocusontheproductionof foodcropsfor familyconsumption.Thiscoulddiminishanyincrease in femaleparticipation incommercialagriculture.Attitudesagainstwomenworking farawayfrom home could also diminish any increase in female participation in nonfarm work. In such casehowever,anoptimalresponsecouldbeformentotakeonmorenonfarmjobsandforwomentoengagemoreincashcropproductionattheirfarms.Giventheadditionalconstraintsfacedbyfemalefarmers,complementaryhumancapitalinterventionstargetedtowomenfarmers–supplyingthemwiththeskillsand aspirations needed to effectively crossover into these activities – could be particularly helpful inhelpingwomentakeadvantageofbetterroadinfrastructure.

Todatetheamountofrigorousevidenceontheeffectivenessoffeederroadrehabilitationinterventionsisthin.OneofthefirststudiesontheimpactsofruralroadrehabilitationwasconductedbyEscobalandPonce(2003)inPeru.Thestudycomparestheoutcomesofhouseholdslivingneararehabilitatedroadwiththoseforhouseholdslivingfurtherawayusingapropensityscorematchingapproach.Itfindsthataccesstotherehabilitatedroad isassociatedwith increasednonfarmincomeopportunities,especiallywage-employment. Khandker at al. (2009) combine propensity score matching with difference-in-differences to evaluate the impact of a rural road program in Bangladesh. They find that rural roadinvestments significantly reduce village level poverty. This effect was accompanied by increasedagricultural production and output prices at local village markets, and reduce farm input andtransportationcosts.7

Casaburi et al. (2013) use a regression discontinuity design to examine the effect of a feeder roadsrehabilitation program in Sierra Leone on agriculturalmarkets. They find that improved feeder roadssignificantly lowermarketpricesof themain staple crops (riceandcassava)produced in the country.AsherandNovosad(2016)alsousearegressiondiscontinuitydesigntostudythe impactofanationalruralroadconstructionprograminIndia.Thisisoneofthefewstudieslookingatheterogeneityoftheimpactwithrespecttogender.Theyfindthatruralroadconstructionleadstoareallocationoflaboraway

7Moreover,ruralroaddevelopmentledtohighersecondaryschoolingenrollmentforboysandgirls(butnothigherprimaryschoolenrollment).

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fromagriculturetowardsnonfarmemployment.Thiseffectisconcentratedamongmales,althoughduetolackofstatisticalpowerthegenderdifferenceisnotstatisticallysignificant.

B.EmpiricalMethods

Sometimestheassignmentoftheseprojectsisbasedonwhetheraroadscoresaboveorbelowacutoffpointonacontinuouslymeasurevariable,suchaspopulationconcentrationorsomecompositemulti-dimensionalindex.Thisfeatureeasestheidentificationofacrediblecomparisongroup.Totheextentthatroadsaroundthecutoffpointaresufficientlysimilartoeachother,aregressiondiscontinuitydesign(RDD)canbeusedtocompareroadsorcommunities“justabove”androads“justbelow”thecutoff[Casaburietal.2014,AsherandNovosad2015].Moreoftenthannothoweverthedetailsoftheprioritizationusedtodecidewhichroadsandcommunitiestotargetdonotfollowasimplescoringprocedure.Theprojectwe evaluate falls into this category. We will use the following four alternative quasi-experimentalempiricalframeworks,whichdifferintermsoftheiridentificationassumptionsanddatarequirements.Together they will provide a rigorous, yet approximate, set of estimates of the causal impact ofrehabilitatingroadsR604andR605.

B.1.Double-DifferenceusingTimeandComparisonRoads

First,apopularstrategyistocollectbaselineandfollow-updataanduseadifference-in-difference(DD)methodology[e.g.MuandVandeWalle2007,Khandkeretal.2009,Ali2011,andAggarwal2015].Thismethod compares the change over time in outcomes between communities in close proximity torehabilitatedroadsandcommunitiesincloseproximitytonon-rehabilitatedroads.IndiscussionswiththeprojectteamandcounterpartsattheANE(AssociacaoNacionaldeEstradas)andFE(FundodeEstradas),roadsR302(betweenFarracungoandMualadze(≈100km))andN603(betweenFarracungoandN9(≈100km))wereselectedforthecomparisongroup.Theseroadsare inthevicinityofroadsR604andR605,sharethesameagro-ecologicalcharacteristics,andareinanequallybadstate.

Thismethodidentifiesthecausalimpactofroadrehabilitationundertheassumptionthatunobservablefactors driving awedge in underlying time-trends between communities along roads R604/R605 andcommunitiesalongroadsN302/R603areconstantacrosstime.Inpracticethismethodisestimatedwiththe following specificationusingpre- andpost-interventiondataonhouseholds in communitiesalongroadsR604/R604androadsN302/R603:

∆𝑦#;< = 𝛼* + 𝛼,𝑅;< + 𝛼.𝑋;&@* + ∆𝜀#;< (B.1)

where ∆𝑦#;< = (𝑦#;<&@, − 𝑦#;<&@*) is the change in the outcome of interest between baseline andfollow-upforhouseholdℎ,incommunity𝑐closetoroad𝑟.𝑅;< isarehabilitationdummythatequals1ifroad𝑟 iseitherR604orR605,or0ifeitherN302orR603.𝑋;&@* isvectorofcommunitylevelcontrolsmeasuredatbaseline.Theparameterofinterestis𝛼/whichmeasuresthedifferentialchangeinmeanoutcomes between communities along rehabilitated roads and communities along non-rehabilitatedroads.Theinclusionofvector𝑋;&@*controlsforobservablefactorsdrivingawedgebetweenthesetwotypesofcommunitiesintheirunderlyingtimetrends.Throughoutallspecificationsstandarderrorswillbeclusteredatthecommunitylevel.

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B.2.Double-DifferenceusingTimeandDistancetoRoads

Second,analternativeDDapproachexploitsproximitytotherehabilitatedroads.Thismethodonlyusesdata from households in communities along rehabilitated roads, and avoids the common time-trendassumptionbetweenrehabilitatedandnon-rehabilitatedroadsusedintheDDapproachdescribedabove.Itcompareschangesinoutcomesbetweencommunitiesthatareincloseproximitytotherehabilitatedroadsandcommunitiesthatarefurtheraway[Ghanietal.2015].Theidentificationassumptionhereisthathadtherehabilitationinterventionnotoccurredthesetwotypesofcommunitieswouldhavebeenonasimilarpatternofevolution.

Inpracticethismethodisestimatedwiththefollowingspecificationusingpre-andpost-interventiondataonhouseholdincommunitiesalongroadsR604/R605:

∆𝑦#;< = 𝛽* + 𝛽,𝐷;< + 𝛽.𝑋;&@* + ∆𝜀#;< (B.2)

where𝐷;< isadistancedummythatequals1ifcommunity𝑐is0-2kmfromtheroad,and0if2-10kmaway.Theparameterinterestis𝛽,whichmeasuresthedifferentialchangeinmeanoutcomesbetweencommunities in close proximity to roads R604/R605 and communities at some distance from roadsR604/605. As before, the inclusion of vector𝑋;&@* controls for observable factors driving a wedgebetweenthesetwotypesofcommunitiesintheirunderlyingtimetrends.

B.3.Triple-DifferenceusingTime,ComparisonRoadsandDistancetoRoads

Third,amorerobustmethodistouseatriple-difference(DDD)approachthatcombinesvariationacrosstime, across rehabilitated and non-rehabilitated roads, and across distance to roads. This methodcompares changes in outcomes between communities that are in close proximity to roads andcommunitiesthatarefurtheraway,bothalongrehabilitatedandnon-rehabilitatedroads.Itrelaxesthecommon time-trend identification assumptions of the two DD models described above. Under thisapproachtheidentificationassumptionisinsteadthatintheabsenceoftheproject,theeffectofproximitytoroadsonchangesinoutcomesovertimeisconstantacrossrehabilitatedandnon-rehabilitatedroads.

This method is estimated with the following specification using pre- and post-intervention data onhouseholdincommunitiesthatarecloseandnotsoclosetobothroadsR604/R605androadsN302/R603:

∆𝑦#;< = 𝛾* + 𝛾,𝑅;< + 𝛾.𝐷;< + 𝛾/ 𝑅;<×𝐷;< + 𝛾0𝑋;&@* + 𝛾H[𝑋;&@*×𝑅;<] + 𝛾K[𝑋;&@*×𝐷;<] + ∆𝜀#;<.

(B.3)

Thecoefficientofinterestis𝛾/whichcanbeshowntoequalthechangeacrosstimeinmeanoutcomesforhouseholdsincommunitieslocated0-2kmfromroadsR604/R605,netofchangesinmeanoutcomesforhouseholdsincommunitieslocated0-2kmfromroadsN302/R603andofchangesinmeanoutcomesforhouseholdsincommunitieslocated3-10kmfromroadsN604/R605.

B.4.Straight-LinesInstrumentalVariables

Finally,asarobustnesscheckwewillfollowanapproachsimilartoBanerjeeetal.[2012]andGhanietal.[2015]anduseaninstrumentalvariable(IV)approachbasedonstraight-linedistancesbetweenterminicommunities.Specificallywewillinstrumentforbeing0-2kmfromroadsR604/R605withbeing0-2km

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fromastraight linebetweentheterminicommunitiesoftheseroads.Theidentificationassumptionofthismethodisthatproximitytothestraightlineonlyaffectscommunitiesinthepost-interventionperioddue to the likelihood of the community being in close proximity to the roads experiencing therehabilitationupgrade.

Inpracticethismethodisestimatedwiththefollowingsystemofequations:

𝐷;< = 𝜋* + 𝜋,𝐿;< + 𝜋.𝑋;&@* + 𝜀;< (B.4)

𝑦#;<&@, = 𝛿* + 𝛿,𝐷;< + 𝛿.𝑋;&@* + 𝜀#;<&@* (B.5)

where𝐿;< inequation(C.4)isadummythatequals1ifcommunity𝑐is0-2kmfromthestraightline,and0if2-10kmaway.ThismethodonlyusesdatafromcommunitiesalongroadsR604/R605.Equation(B.4)onlyusescommunitylevelpre-interventiondata,andequation(B.5)onlyuseshouseholdandcommunitylevelpost-interventiondata.Weuseequation(B.4)asafirst-stagetopredicthowdistancetothestraight-linepredictsdistancetotheroads.Ourparameterofinterestis𝛿,inequation(B.5)inwhich𝐷;< hasbeeninstrumentedwith𝐿;< usingequation(B.4)asourfirst-stage.

C.IGPP’sFeederRoadsRehabilitation(TechnicalDetails)

In total,207kilometersof roadsaregoing tobe rehabilitatedby theAssociacaoNacionaldeEstradas(ANE)undertheIGPP,betweenMay2017andDecember2018.Currently,theexistingsurfaceofR604andR605ispredominantlymadeofgravel.Thewidthofthegravelsurfacevariesfrom6.2to6.7meters.SmallstretchesofR605haveacapesealedsurface,mainlyinplaceswherethelongitudinalgradientisextreme.Intotal,about20kilometersofR605iscoveredbyacapesealedsurface.Onthecontrary,only0.2kilometersofR604hasacapesealedsurface.Theareaaroundtheroadsismountainous.Therefore,theterrainalongroadsR604andR605 isveryuneven.EspeciallyR605becomesmountainousover18kilometers.Along theR605, thealtitudevariesbetween989metersand1,717meterswithamedianaltitudeof1,382meters.ThealtitudeofR604 ismoreconstantand rangesbetween1,094and1,357meters,withamedianaltitudeof1,250meters.Theinsufficientroutinemaintenanceandthepoorwaterdrainagecreatedhighirregularitiesontheroads(holes,grooves,ravinesetc.).Waterflowsfromrainfallsornaturalsourcesconstantlydamagethesurface.Coateddrainsareobservedirregularlyalongtheroadswithsteeplongitudinalgradientsespeciallyaroundbridges.Overall,thehorizontalgeometryoftheroadsisgoodbutasignificantimprovementoftheverticalgeometryisneeded.Inaddition,thedrainagesystemisinabadstate,worseningthequalityoftheroad.

Therehabilitationworksplantosealwithacapesealedsurface25kilometersand32kilometersofR604andR605respectively.Theremainingoftheroadswillbeentirelyupgradedandre-graveledwithanewgravelmaterial.TableC1summarizesthemodificationsoftheroads’pavementbeforeandaftertheworksas set out in the construction plan. Aside from the surface of the roads, the works also include therehabilitationofthedrainagesystemalongtheroads:rehabilitation,reconstructionandwhennecessaryconstructionofnewdrainsandculverts.Aninventoryoftheworksontheroads,culvertanddrains,aswellasbridgesandintersectionsisreportedinTableC2.

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TableC3detailsthedifferentactivitiesthatwillbeundertakenalongtheroadsrehabilitationprocess.Theactivitiesstartwiththebushclearingoftheroads’areasandthepreparationofthesurface(stabilizingtheembankment,harmonizingthewidthofroads,smoothingandprimingthesurface).Then,thenewmaterialoftheroadpavementwillbeappliedandculvertsanddrainswillbeinstalled.Finally,theworksincludeactivitiessuchasmarking,paintingandinstallingtrafficsignboards.The18-monthrehabilitationworkswillbefollowedbyanother18-monthofroutinemaintenanceworksandqualitycontrolcheckssothatallroadperformancestandardsareachieved.

TableC1.Plannedroadsurfacetypebeforeandafterrehabilitationworks(Km) Totallengthof

rehabilitatedroads

Beforeworks Afterworks

Gravelsurface

Capesealedsurface Gravel

surfaceCapesealedsurface

R605 104 84.7 19.3 52.6 51.4R604 103.6 103.4 0.2 78.4 25.2Total 207.6 188.1 19.5 131 76.6Sources: Administraçao Nacional de Estradas (2016), “Estudo Ambiental Simplificado para o projeto deRehabilitaçaodasEstradasR605eR604”and“BidingDocumentforProcurementofWorksandServicesunderOutput-andPerformance-basedRoadContractsofR605andR604”.

TableC2.Otherroadrehabilitationworks Unit R605 R604RoadSurfaceWorks

Sealingofexistinggravelsurface Km 32.2 25Re-gravellingofexistinggravelroad Km 52.6 78.4

RoadSideDrains Constructionofopenlineddrain Km 9 15.2Constructionofopenunlineddrain Km 114 79.6Rehabilitationofexistingdrain Km 5.95 2.9

Intersections Re-gravellingofmajorjunctions No 1 3Re-gravellingofminorjunctions No 10 11

RehabilitationofExistingBridges No 11 9ConstructionofRetainingWall Meters 250 0Culverts

RehabilitationofExistingCulverts No 150 112ReconstructionofExistingCulverts No 17 19ConstructionofNewPipeCulverts No 5 0

Sources:AdministraçaoNacionaldeEstradas (2016), “EstudoAmbiental SimplificadoparaoprojetodeRehabilitaçaodasEstradasR605eR604”and“BidingDocumentforProcurement of Works and Services under Output- and Performance-based RoadContractsofR605andR604”.

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TableC3.ScopeoftheActivitiesintheRoadRehabilitationWorksA)BushclearancealongtheroadClearing,grubbing,removinganddisposingofvegetation,includingsand,dirt,mudandearthinsidetheconstructionarea.B)Strengtheningandwideningembankment/cutformationsConstructingandcompactingembankment/cutformationssoastoprovidestablesideslopesandadequatebearingcapacity.C)RoadcarriagewayRehabilitatingtheroadwidth.D)RoadsurfacesmoothingSmoothingandprimingthesurface.E)RoadpavementApplyingcapeseallayerbitumensurfaceORplacingandcompactingofnaturalgravellayer.F)RoadlanemarkingandtrafficsignboardsRoadmarkinganddesigning,producingandinstallingsignpanels.G)DesiltingDesiltingonexistingculverts,masonryandconcretedrains.H)EarthDrainConstructinganearthendraintodischargeofwaterrunofftothevalleyornaturalstream.I)SlopeProtectionProvidingprotectionbygrountedtothesideslopesofembankmentssusceptibleforerosion/slip.J)PaintingandNumberingApplyingtwocoatsofbestqualitysyntheticenamelpaintonnon-metallicguardrails,bridgemarkerpostandothermarkerposts.K)ReinforcedConcretePipeCulvertConstructingreinforcedconcretepipeculvertson100mmofblindingconcrete.Anyunsuitablematerialbelowtheproposedbeddinglevelshallbereplacedwithgoodqualitysoiltoensurebearinganddrainage.Sources:AdministraçaoNacionaldeEstradas(2016),“EstudoAmbientalSimplificadoparaoprojetodeRehabilitaçaodasEstradasR605eR604”and“BidingDocumentforProcurementofWorksandServicesunderOutput-andPerformance-basedRoadContractsofR605andR604”.