Improving Energy Efficiency U.S. and West Coast Joint Commissions Energy Efficiency Workshops...
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Improving Energy Efficiency U.S. and West Coast Joint Commissions Energy Efficiency Workshops December 1, 2006 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 [email protected] http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/ rosenfeld.html or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
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Transcript of Improving Energy Efficiency U.S. and West Coast Joint Commissions Energy Efficiency Workshops...
Improving Energy EfficiencyU.S. and West Coast
Joint Commissions Energy Efficiency WorkshopsDecember 1, 2006
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner
California Energy Commission
(916) 654-4930
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
2
Energy Intensity (E/GDP) in the United States 1949 - 2005
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
tho
usa
nd
Btu
/$ (
in $
2000
)
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
73 to 85-2.6%/yr
85 to 97-1.2%/yr
97 to 05-2.4%/yr
1973 to 2006 - 2.1%/year)
Actual GDP
E/GDP rate of change
3
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Qu
ads/
Yea
r
$ 1.7 Trillion
$ 1.0 Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
70 Quads per year saved or avoided corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the road
4
Remarks about saving 70 Quads
Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.
70 Quads in terms of CO2
– 70 Quads = 33 Mbod (Million barrels of oil per day)
= 40% of World oil production of 80 Mbod
– 70 Quads = 1 Billion cars off the road, impressive since there are only 600 million cars worldwide.
5
Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
97
5
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
MW
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in 2003
i.e. 22% in 30 years
6
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
96
0
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
California
United States
∆(2005)= 4,000kWh/yr
∆(2005)= $180/yr
7
Per Capita Electricity Consumption and Average Price
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004year
kWh
/per
son
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$ p
er K
Wh
(20
00$)
" "
Series5
California consumption
United States consumption
California Average Price
US Average Price
Difference in Price between the US and California
8
"All Sector" or Total Expenditure for Electricity per Capita1970 to 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
$ in
Co
ns
tan
t 2
00
0 D
oll
ars
California
United States
Difference US and Cal
9
All Sectors Per Capita Electricity Consumption 1960 - 2005
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
kWh
per
per
son
California
Oregon
United States
Washington
10
Price per kWh (Average of All Sectors) 1970 to 2005
-
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
$ p
er k
Wh
in C
on
sta
nt
20
00
Do
lla
rs
California
Oregon
United States
Washington
11
Per Capita Electricity Consumption Industrial Sector1960 - 2005
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
kWh
per
per
son
California OregonUnited States Washington
12
Per Capita Electricity Consumption Commercial Sector1960 - 2005
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,00019
60
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
kWh
per
per
son
California
Oregon
United States
Washington
13
Per Capita Electricity Consumption Residential Sector1960 - 2005
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,00019
60
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
kWh
per
per
son
California
Oregon
United States
Washington
14
.
This talk available on my web page
Just Google
“Art Rosenfeld”
