Improving Education:A triumph of hope over experience

Robert Coe

Edge Hill University: 6th Annual Education Conference, 9 July 2014

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A triumph of hope over experience Experience

– Have educational standards really risen?– School improvement: Isn’t it time there was some?– Can we identify effective schools and teachers?– Is ‘evidence-based’ practice and policy the

answer?

Hope– So what should we do (that hasn’t failed yet)?

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www.cem.org/attachments/publications/ImprovingEducation2013.pdf

Have educational standards really risen?

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4

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5

Equivalent change in GCSE grades

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(Updated from Coe, 2007)

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ICCAMS (Hodgen et al)

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School improvement: Isn’t it time there was some?

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1. Wait for a bad year or choose underperforming schools to start with. Most things self-correct or revert to expectations (you can claim the credit for this).

2. Take on any initiative, and ask everyone who put effort into it whether they feel it worked. No-one wants to feel their effort was wasted.

3. Define ‘improvement’ in terms of perceptions and ratings of teachers. DO NOT conduct any proper assessments – they may disappoint.

4. Only study schools or teachers that recognise a problem and are prepared to take on an initiative. They’ll probably improve whatever you do.

Mistaking School Improvement (1)(Coe, 2009)

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5. Conduct some kind of evaluation, but don’t let the design be too good – poor quality evaluations are much more likely to show positive results.

6. If any improvement occurs in any aspect of performance, focus attention on that rather than on any areas or schools that have not improved or got worse (don’t mention them!).

7. Put some effort into marketing and presentation of the school. Once you start to recruit better students, things will improve.

Mistaking School Improvement (2) (Coe, 2009)

Can we identify effective schools and teachers?

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Problems with school effectiveness research

‘Value-added’ is not effectiveness (Gorard, 2010; Dumay, Coe & Anumendem, 2013)

Characteristics of ‘effective schools’ – ‘strong leadership’, ‘high expectations’, ‘positive

climate’ and a ‘focus on teaching and learning’– Too vague– ‘Effects’ are tiny anyway (Scheerens, 2000, 2012)

Correlations, not causes (Coe & Fitz-Gibbon, 1998)

– Can ‘effective’ strategies be implemented?– If so, do they lead to improvement?

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Is ‘evidence-based’ practice and policy the answer?

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Toolkit of Strategies to Improve Learning

The Sutton Trust-EEF Teaching and Learning Toolkit http://www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit/

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Impact vs cost

Cost per pupil

Eff

ect

Siz

e (

mon

ths

gain

)

£00

8

£1000

Meta-cognitive

Peer tutoringEarly Years

1-1 tuitionHomework (Secondary)

Teaching assistants

Mentoring

Summer schools After

school

AspirationsPerformance pay

Smaller classes

Setting

Most promising for raising attainment

May be worth it

Small effects /

high cost

Feedback

Phonics

Homework (Primary)

CollaborativeSmall gp

tuition Parental involvement

Individualised learning

ICT

Behaviour

Social

www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit

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Some things that are popular or widely thought to be effective are probably not worth doing– Ability grouping (setting); After-school clubs;

Teaching assistants; Smaller classes; Performance pay; Raising aspirations

Some things look ‘promising’– Effective feedback; Meta- cognitive and self

regulation strategies; Peer tutoring/peer‐assisted learning strategies; Homework

Key messages

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Clear, simple advice:

Choose from the top left Go back to school and do it

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For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong

H.L. Mencken

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Why not? We have been doing some of these things for a long

time, but have generally not seen improvement Research evidence is problematic

– Sometimes the existing evidence is thin– Research studies may not reflect real life– Context and ‘support factors’ may matter (Cartwright and Hardie,

2012)

Implementation is problematic– We may think we are doing it, but are we doing it right?– We do not know how to get large groups of teachers and

schools to implement these interventions in ways that are faithful, effective and sustainable

So what should we do (that hasn’t failed yet)?

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Four steps to improvement

Think hard about learning Invest in effective professional development Evaluate teaching quality Evaluate impact of changes

1. Think hard about learning

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Impact vs cost

Cost per pupil

Eff

ect

Siz

e (

mon

ths

gain

)

£00

8

£1000

Meta-cognitive

Peer tutoringEarly Years

1-1 tuitionHomework (Secondary)

Teaching assistants

Mentoring

Summer schools After

school

AspirationsPerformance pay

Smaller classes

Setting

Most promising for raising attainment

May be worth it

Small effects /

high cost

Feedback

Phonics

Homework (Primary)

CollaborativeSmall gp

tuition Parental involvement

Individualised learning

ICT

Behaviour

Social

www.educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/toolkit

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True or false?1. Reducing class size is one of the most

effective ways to increase learning [evidence]

2. Differentiation and ‘personalised learning’ resources maximise learning [evidence]

3. Praise encourages learners and helps them persist with hard tasks [evidence]

4. Technology supports learning by engaging and motivating learners [evidence]

5. The best way to raise attainment is to enhance motivation and interest [evidence]

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Poor Proxies for Learning Students are busy: lots of work is done (especially written

work) Students are engaged, interested, motivated Students are getting attention: feedback, explanations Classroom is ordered, calm, under control Curriculum has been ‘covered’ (ie presented to students

in some form) (At least some) students have supplied correct answers,

even if they– Have not really understood them– Could not reproduce them independently– Will have forgotten it by next week (tomorrow?)– Already knew how to do this anyway

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Learning happens when people have

to think hard

A better proxy for learning?

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Hard questions about your school

How many minutes does an average pupil on an average day spend really thinking hard?

Do you really want pupils to be ‘stuck’ in your lessons?

If they knew the right answer but didn’t know why, how many pupils would care?

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2. Invest in effective CPD

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How do we get students to learn hard things?

Eg Place value Persuasive

writing Music

composition Balancing

chemical equations

• Explain what they should do• Demonstrate it• Get them to do it (with

gradually reducing support)• Provide feedback • Get them to practise until it is

secure• Assess their skill/

understanding

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How do we get teachers to learn hard things?

Eg Using formative

assessment Assertive

discipline How to teach

algebra

• Explain what they should do

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Intense: at least 30 contact hours, preferably 50 Sustained: over at least two terms Content focused: on teachers’ knowledge of

subject content & how students learn it Active: opportunities to try it out & discuss Supported: external feedback and networks to

improve and sustain Evidence based: promotes strategies

supported by robust evaluation evidence

What CPD helps students?

Do you do

this?

3. Evaluate teaching quality

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Every teacher needs to improve, not because they are not good enough, but because they can be even better.

Dylan Wiliam

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Why monitor teaching quality? Good evidence of (potential) benefit from

– Performance feedback (Coe, 2002)– Target setting (Locke & Latham, 2006)– Accountability (Coe & Sahlgren, 2014)

Individual teachers matter most Teachers typically stop improving after 3-5 years Everyone can improve Judging real quality/effectiveness is very hard

– Multidimensional– Not easily visible– Confounded

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“… effective evaluation is good for pupils and good for teachers. It can improve the quality of teaching, provided it is accompanied by good feedback, and it can lead to better results for pupils and improved learning” (Murphy, 2013)

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Monitoring the quality of teaching Progress in assessments

– Quality of assessment matters (cem.org/blog)– Regular, high quality assessment across curriculum (InCAS, INSIGHT

)

Classroom observation– Much harder than you think! (cem.org/blog)– Multiple observations/ers, trained and QA’d

Student ratings– Extremely valuable, if done properly (http://

www.cem.org/latest/student-evaluation-of-teaching-can-it-raise-attainment-in-secondary-schools)

Other– Parent ratings feedback– Student work scrutiny– Colleague perceptions (360)– Self assessment– Pedagogical content knowledge

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Lesson Observation

1. Two teachers observe the same lesson, one rates it ‘Inadequate’. What is the probability the other will agree?

a) 10% b) 40% c) 60% d) 80%

2. An observer judges a lesson ‘Outstanding’. What is the probability that pupils are really making sustained, outstanding progress?

a) 5% b) 30% c) 50% d) 70%

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www.cem.org/blog

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Evidence-Based Lesson Observation

Behaviour and organisation– Maximise time on task, engagement, rules & consequences

Classroom climate– Respect, quality of interactions, failure OK, high

expectations, growth mindset

Learning– What made students think hard?– Quality of: exposition, demonstration, scaffolding, feedback,

practice, assessment– What provided evidence of students’ understanding?– How was this responded to? (Feedback)

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4. Evaluate impact of changes

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A research-engaged school Draws on knowledge and understanding of

research to inform – Pedagogical practice– Decisions about strategy and policies– Attempts to implement and embed more effective

practices

Robustly evaluates – Its ongoing performance on a range of outcomes– The impact of any changes made

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RISE: Research-leads Improving Students’ Education

With Alex Quigley, John Tomsett, Stuart Kime Based around York RCT: 20 school leaders trained in research, 20 controls Contact: aj.quigley@huntington-ed.org.uk

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Clear, well defined, replicable intervention

Good assessment of appropriate outcomes

Well-matched comparison group

EEF DIY

Evaluatio

n Guide

Key elements of good evaluation

What could

you evaluate?

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A triumph of hope over experience

Experience– So far, we haven’t cracked it: don’t keep doing the

same things

Hope– Think hard about learning– Invest in effective professional development– Evaluate teaching quality– Evaluate impact of changes