Improving air quality analysis through closer integration of observations & models

Greg Carmichael, Scott Spak Air quality management contacts:

Joe Hoch, Wisconsin DNR Matthew Johnson, Iowa DNRDonna Kenski, LADCO

1. Model skill for fine particle concentrations during wintertime episodes: how to improve?

2. AQ-WX feedbacks for both AQ & WX

3. Uncertainties & error attribution in derived policy metrics:

• met?• ICs/BCs? • model?

4. Value in assimilating remote sensing for AQ

• atmospheric composition• land surface• meteorology• individual vs. synergistic

effects?

MotivationsApplied science for AQ decision support

Forecasting for AQ decision support4. Daily resource for AQ

managers

5. Public benchmark data archive to inform planning & forecasters

6. Integrated forecasting—support products for transportation, energy production, hazards

7. Demonstrated need for urban-scale nowcasting tools to support local public health response to urban air quality events

1. W126 monthly index, June-July 2008 60 km CONUS western US 12 km

2. Estimate background contributions

Compare contributions from NA biomass burning emissions by turning off FINN & RAQMS BB emissions

Compare contributions from transported background (model boundary) by perturbing RAQMS and GEOS-Chem BCs for O3 & precursors:

CO, NO, NO2, NO3, HNO3, HNO4, PAN, N2O5

Evaluate W16 metric suitability and uncertainties for policy applications

Assessing the Ozone Secondary Standard with the STEM adjoint &

TES assimilation

Huang et al. (2012). Impacts of transported background pollutants on summertime Western US air quality: model evaluation, sensitivity analysis and data assimilation, ACPD, 12, 1–73.

Model horizontal/vertical resolution & BC uncertainties strongly affect W126 value...

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… and affect W126 adjoint sensitivities almost as strongly as local precursors

extrapolated from sensitivities to 75% perturbations in BCs

Transported Background O3

in the adjoint of a regional CTM

Huang et al. (2012). Impacts of transported background pollutants on summertime Western US air quality: model evaluation, sensitivity analysis and data assimilation, ACPD, 12, 1–73.

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LADCO Winter Nitrate Study: Phase IIHow does interactive snow affect winter PM2.5 episodes?

Most effective local & regional emissions control? NH3

• During episodes, meteorology sensitivity >= emissions sensitivity

• Urban impacts of local (100 km, 250 km) NOx & NH3 controls >60% of regional total

• CSAPR enhances effectiveness of regional NOx controls, nearly neutral to NH3

• air quality- PM2.5 & ozone- NAAQS exceedances- Background

• aerosol-climate effects• carbon cycle• renewable energy• road conditions• floods, agriculture

Integrated forecast goals

Toward 4DVAR in high resolution coupled Earth System modeling for prediction, process studies, climate, decision support, and policy applications: 2015-2030

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Iowa City Landfill Fire 2012 7.5 acres burn, beginning 5/26 ~1 million shredded tires Uncontrolled tire fires (EPA,

1997)- 40+ species of concern- 35,000x more mutagenic than

coal-fired power plants Immediate state & federal

activity- Whole air samples, GC/MS (IA

SHL)- Regional HYSPLIT dispersion

(NOAA NWS)- MODIS visible (IA National

Guard)- Fire containment & treatment

(US EPA) Limited decision support

response for air quality & public health

This i

s a jo

b for A

QAST

5/30 1st AERMOD forecast

• 3DVAR IMAPP MODIS L2 DB

• 35 vertical levels in WRF-Chem

• AERMOD @ 100 m x 100 m

• National Elevation Dataset

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Interdisciplinary rapid response3 intensive sampling platformsBetsy Stone (Chemistry)

PM2.5 mass and speciation 40+ organics

Charles Stanier (CBE, IIHR) <1 Hz SO2, CO, CO2

Ultrafine Particle Counter (CPC) Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (0.015-.64

µm) Aerosol Particle Sizer (0.54-20 µm) Weather station

Tom Peters (Public Health) Grimm Optical Particle Counter (0.3-20 µm) Portable black carbon monitor

Tom Schnell (CoE Operator Performance)

HUMVEE with power for all instruments

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Plume chasing: 150+ µg/m3 urban toxic PM2.5 sourceLandfill

fire0.8 km

1.8 km

2.7 km

Sampling points during plume chase on June 01 2012.15-minute average concentrations of 157 µg/m3 PM0.3-2.5 at plume centerline @ 0.8 km, 34 µg/m3 PM0.3-2.5 @ 2.7 km.

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05/30 05/31 06/01 06/02 06/03 06/040

10

20

30

40

50

60

APS PM2.5

APS P

M 0

.5-

2.5

(µ

g/m

3)

Estimated PM2.5 emissions rate: 10 ± 3 µg/m2/s ~5 g/s

5/31 WRF-Chem + AERMOD + obs ->Background PM2.5/CO/SO2 + landfill emissions

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 300

10

20

30

40

50

60

SO2

AP

S P

M2.

5 hi

gh R

H h

ours

exc

lude

d

Black dots, before 6 PM on 6/2; Green dots, after 6 PM on 6/2; High RH hours excluded

~4 µg/m3 per ppb SO2

APS P

M 0

.5-

2.5

(µ

g/m

3)

SO2 (ppb)

Iowa City SO2

6/1 60hr weekend forecast to Johnson County Public Health using US EPA recommended metrics

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05/30 05/31 06/01 06/02 06/03 06/040

10

20

30

40

50

60

APS PM2.5

APS

PM

0.5

- 2

.5

(µg

/m3)

Verification:Increment within 3 µg/m3 AQS monitor 11.5 km east hit 77 µg/m3

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Learning from this event: on-demand decision support productsAQAST + Johnson County + Iowa DNR

Guidelines & toolkit for state/local public health response to urban fires & toxic releases

New decision support features in AQAST forecastAERMOD meteorology inputs web portalRapid response capacity for the next year:

urban AERMOD + WRF-Chem background

Urban exposure & health modeling/monitoring

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Recent synergistic highlights Santiago, Chile: daily

operational WRF-Chem PM10/PM2.5 forecast

WRF-Chem aerosol-cloud assimilation MODIS cloud optical depth

retrievals alter droplet concentration and effective radius

AOD + COD constrain aerosols throughout scenes

Improving parcel-level urban renewable energy estimates with NASA cloud retrievals

P. Saide et al. (2011). Forecasting urban PM10 and PM2.5 pollution episodes in very stable nocturnal conditions and complex terrain using WRF-Chem CO tracer model, Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.02.001.

P. Saide et al. (2012). Seeing aerosol through clouds: assimilating submicron aerosols from satellite cloud retrievals, PNAS, in press.

Year 2 Plans

Aerosol RF in 72-hour operational forecast system

Disaggregate AQ impacts from assimilation fields

Publish maps & data download online

Extend to custom AQ management products

Evaluate and refine configuration

Implement AERMOD rapid response capability

Support your tiger team activities