Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Yasuaki Hijioka（hijioka@nies.go.jp）

14th AIM International Workshop February 16th, 2009

Ohyama Hall, NIES, Japan

NIES

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

1.1. ObjectivesObjectives

2.2. Overview of AIM/Impact[Policy]Overview of AIM/Impact[Policy]

3.3. Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]

•• The Project for Comprehensive Projection of The Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts [SClimate Change Impacts [S--4 project]4 project]

4.4. Future planFuture plan

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ObjectivesObjectives

Development of integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact[Policy], for comprehensive analysis and assessment of GHG stabilization concentration targets and emission pathways for realizing them, as well as impacts and risks under such targets

Assist policymakers’decision in action programs to arrest global warming

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Concept of Concept of Integrated Assessment modelIntegrated Assessment model

Integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact[Policy]

Projection of future GHG emissions and climate change impacts under stabilization targets

Present Future

Tem

p. in

crea

se

Temp. inc. Low

Temp. inc. High

Present Future

GH

G C

on.

GHG Con. Low

GHG Con. High

Present Future

CC im

pact

s

Impact small

Impact Large

Present Future

GH

G e

mis

sion

s

Effort for GHG reduction Large

Effort for GHG reduction small

Climate change Impact Response Function

Impact/Adaptation

GHG Emissions

Overview of integrated Overview of integrated assessment modelassessment model

Global GHG emission path

GMTI

Pattern scaling module

Climate Scenario

by country

Potential impact

estimation module

National/ Sector-wise impacts

Integrated assessment

(Emission/Climate/Impacts)

Energy-economic model

Simple climate model

GCM results Adaptation

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Example of global GHG emissions to Example of global GHG emissions to achieve 50% GHG reductionachieve 50% GHG reduction

Base year: Case1,2(1990), Case3,4(2000), Case5,6: 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Kyot

o G

as E

mis

sion

s (G

tCeq

/yr)

Year

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6

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Impact assessment and adaptation modelImpact assessment and adaptation model

Database type model (pre-simulated results of process type models)

Using existing detailed sector-level impact assessment models, the impact on each lattice point is estimated by sensitivity analysis using the two climate factors of temperature and precipitation

Spatially averaged country-level and sector-level impact functions are to be prepared.

This database can also contain knowledge obtained by other impact studies.

Precipitation -50% Precipitation 0%

Temperature +0ºC

Change of potential crop productivity(rice) 0 2 3 4 5 6 (t/ha)

Precipitation 100%

Temperature +3ºC

Temperature +6ºC

Temperature +9ºC

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Example of Impact Response Example of Impact Response FunctionFunction

2d 1d 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8405060708090100110120130140150

Temperature change

Prec

ipita

tion

chan

ge0-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125

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Example of global impact assessment-Probability of Heat Stress Mortality-

BaU

2 degree celsius increase

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Example of uncertainty analysis

75

80

85

90

95

100

10520

00

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Year

Pote

ntia

l ric

e pr

oduc

tivi

ty

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

YearPo

tent

ial r

ice

prod

ucti

vity

Y ea r

BCCRbcm2-PCM_A2 BCCRbcm2-PCM_B1 CCCm_A2 CCCm_B2 CCCma-PCMA1B CCCma-PCMA2 CCCma-PCMB1CCCmat63-PCMA1B CCCmat63-PCMB1 CCSR_A1 CCSR_A1T CCSR_A2 CCSR_AF CCSR_B1CCSR_B2 CGCM-PCMA1B CGCM-PCMA2 CGCM-PCMB1 CNRMcm3-PCMA1B CNRMcm3-PCMA2 CNRMcm3-PCMB1CSIRO_A1 CSIRO_A2 CSIRO_B1 CSIRO_B2 CSIROmk3-PCMA1B CSIROmk3-PCMA2 CSIROmk3-PCMB1ECHAM4-PCM_A1B ECHAM-PCM_A1B ECHAM-PCM_A2 ECHAM-PCM_B1 ECHO-PCM_A1B ECHO-PCM_A2 ECHO-PCM_B1FGOALS-PCM_A1B FGOALS-PCM_B1 GFDL_A2 GFDL_B2 GFDLcm20-PCM_A1B GFDLcm20-PCM_A2 GFDLcm20-PCM_B1GFDLcm21-PCM_A1B GFDLcm21-PCM_A2 GFDLcm21-PCM_B1 GISSaom-PCM_A1B GISSaom-PCM_B1 GISSeh-PCM_A1B GISSer-PCM_A2GISSer-PCM_B1 HADCM3_A2 HADCM3_A2b HADCM3_A2c HADCM3_B2 INMCM3-PCM_A1B INMCM3-PCM_A2INMCM3-PCM_B1 IPSLcm4-PCM_A1B IPSLcm4-PCM_A2 IPSLcm4-PCM_B1 MIROC_A1B MIROCh-PCM_A1B MIROCh-PCM_B1MIROCm-PCM_A1B MIROCm-PCM_A2 MIROCm-PCM_B1 MIROCold_A1B NCARccsm3-PCM_A1B NCARccsm3-PCM_A2 NCARccsm3-PCM_B1NCARpcm1-PCM_A1B NCARpcm1-PCM_A2 UKMOhadcm-PCM_A1B UKMOhadcm-PCM_A2 UKMOhadcm-PCM_B1 UKMOhadgem1-PCM_A1B UKMOhadgem1-PCM_A2Ave.

BaU2ºC

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Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]

Revision of parameters reflecting AR4 scientific

information, such as climate sensitivity, radiative

forcing

Improvement of carbon cycle module

From box type model to impulse function type model

Additional integration of impact response functions

Research outcomes by the Project for Comprehensive

Projection of Climate Change Impacts [S-4 project]

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The Project for Comprehensive The Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change ImpactsProjection of Climate Change Impacts

Global Environment Research Fund S-4 by Ministry of the EnvironmentTargeted area: Asian region including JapanTargeted fields: Water resources, forests, agriculture, coastal zones, human healthResearch period:

Period I (2005-2007) + Period II (2008-2009)

Project leader: Nobuo MIMURA, Ibaraki UniversityNumber of sub-themes: Seven

Number of participating research institutions: 20 (2007)Number of participating researchers: 44 (2007)

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Objectives ofObjectives of the research projectthe research project

To obtain quantitative knowledge on climate change impacts in key fields in the Asian regionincluding Japan, targeting the period up to the end of the present century while focusing on the period up to around 2050. Water resources, Forests, Agriculture, Coastal zones, and Human health

To comprehensively grasp the impacts on Japan and elucidate the relationships with the level of global warming.

Risk Map

Without adaptation measures

With adaptation measures

SS--4 research method4 research method

WaterHumanhealth

Agri. Coasts Forests

Improvement of Impact Projection

Climate scenario

Population scenario

Common scenarioDevelopment of Impact Functions

Economic assessment

Proposal of economic assessment method

Development of monetary assessment basic unit

0

5

10

15

20

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GHG emissions

300

500

700

900

1100

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

GHG concentrations

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

Temperature changes

-30-25-20-15-10

-50

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Impacts

Integrated assessment model

Adaptationmeasures

IntegratedIntegratedAssessmentAssessment

NIES

Climate Change Impacts on JapanClimate Change Impacts on Japan-- Latest Scientific Findings Latest Scientific Findings --

Press Release: 29th May, 2008

Results for the first three years

Full report: 94 pages

Brief summary: 15 pages

http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj-impact-s4report.html

NIES

Reported risk mapsReported risk mapshttp://www-cger.nies.go.jp/climate/rrpj-impact-s4report.html

１年に熱ストレスで死亡する確率（人口1000万人あたりの死亡数で示したもの）

0 1 10 100 5000 1 10 100 500

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Summary of the reportSummary of the report

1. While impact levels and rates of increase will vary by region, there are especially vulnerable regions for each field.

2. Although the level of impact and rate of increase vary according to the field, Japan will also experience significant impacts even with a relatively low temperature rise.

3. In view of the fact that the impacts of climate change have been appearing in various fields in recent years, the immediate planning of appropriate adaptation measures is necessary.

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Impact Response Functions (Japan)Impact Response Functions (Japan)

Flood area and economic lossTohoku University

Risk of slope disaster and economic lossTohoku University

Suitable habitat for Japanese beechForestry and Forest Products Research Institute and NIES

Risk area of pine wiltForestry and Forest Products Research Institute

Rice yieldNational Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences

Area, affected population and economic loss of storm-surge flooding

National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

Heat stress mortality riskTsukuba University and NIES

Comprehensive assessment of climate change impactsComprehensive assessment of climate change impacts

Average temperature increase in Japan (1990 = 0ºC)0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

0.951.001.051.101.151.20

Chan

ge in

flood

ed a

rea

012345

Chan

ge in

exp

ecte

dec

onom

ic lo

ss fr

om h

eavy

rain

once

eve

ry 5

0 ye

ars

Flooded area

Economic loss

0.981.001.021.041.061.081.10

Chan

ge in

ave

rage

valu

e of

slo

pedi

sast

er ri

sk in

Japa

n

0.991.001.011.021.031.041.05

Chan

ge in

exp

ecte

dec

onom

ic lo

ss fr

om h

eavy

rain

once

eve

ry 5

0 ye

ars

Slope disasters

Economic loss

0.9

1.0

1.1

Rice

yie

ld

Rice yield

123456

Chan

ge in

hea

tst

ress

mor

talit

y ris

k

Heat stressmortality risk

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Chan

ge in

the

area

at r

isk

from

pin

e w

ilt d

amag

e

0

50

100

150Ra

te o

f dec

reas

ein

sui

tabl

e ha

bita

tfo

r Jap

anes

ebe

ech

(%)

Pine wiltJapanese beech

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Chan

ge in

are

a of

sto

rm-s

urge

floo

ding Population affected

Area of storm-surgeflooding

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Conclusion and Future planConclusion and Future plan

AIM/Impact[Policy] has been improved and applied to several projects

Energy-economic model has been applied to develop stabilization scenario, such as AR5 RCP and Japanese middle term GHG reduction targets Impact assessment and adaptation model has been applied Japaneseimpact assessment

1. Implementation of new Japanese impact response functions, such as risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, fruit productivity, etc

2. Improvement of AIM/Impact[Policy]• Development of new functions to assess adaptation options

• Development of distributed version

• User and Technical Manual and report

Thank you for your attention!