Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping

Nathanael Melia | Ed Hawkins | Keith Haines GC11G-1099 Trans-Arctic shipping routes proliferate References 1. Melia N, Haines K, & Hawkins E. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations, Cryosphere, 9, 2237-2251, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015, 2015. 2. Transport Canada. Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS). 1998. 3. Tan X, Su B, Riska K, & Moan T. A six-degrees-of-freedom numerical model for level ice–ship interaction. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 92, 1-16, doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.03.006, 2013. Contact information • Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6AH, UK. • Email: [email protected] • Web: www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sq011930/home/ • -- Summary The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice opens up the potential for shorter shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean leading to potentially significant global economic savings. We demonstrate, using bias corrected 1 global climate models (GCMs), that the projected continuance of sea ice melt through the 21 st century increases opportunities for ships to sail through the Arctic, to the USA and Europe, from East Asian ports. Transit potential for Open Water vessels (OW) doubles from early to mid-century and coincides with the opening of the trans-polar sea route. Although seasonal, routes become more reliable with an increased shipping season length. Climate models • A subset of five bias corrected 1 GCMs from CMIP5 (HadGEM2-ES, CCSM4, CESM-CAM5, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR). • Two future emission scenarios are assessed, RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (high). • Three ensemble members from each GCM are used, 15 total. • For each period, 15 Septembers in the 15 member ensemble are tested, hence 225 attempted transits to each destination in each panel (Fig. 1a-f). Ship-route algorithm • The algorithm finds the fastest possible route when ice conditions permit. • The Canadian ice regime system 2 is used for vessel ice limitations. OW can transit through sea ice thickness (SIT) of up to 0.15 m, Polar Class 6 vessels (PC6) up to 1.2 m. • A speed – SIT relationship 3 is incorporated; vessels can travel through ice but at a reduced speed; longer ice-free routes may be faster. Season length and variability Through the 21 st century routes become more reliably open and the shipping season length increases. Inter-annual variability is evident throughout. Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping Figure 1. Fastest available September transits to the USA and Europe from East Asia. Cyan lines represent Open Water vessels (OW) and pink lines represent Polar Class 6 vessels (PC6), line weight indicates the number of simulated vessels using the same route. The percentages shown in Greenland represent the success rate of trans-Arctic voyages for each vessel class respectively. The bean plots labelled USA and EUR represent the distribution of the successful transit times to these destinations relative to their theoretical fastest possible route. Figure 2. Season length and variability for Open Water vessels in RCP8.5. The three major rows represent different routes: Northern Sea Route (NSR), North West Passage (NWP) & Trans-polar Sea Route (TSR). Sub-rows – month; colours – number of ensemble members open.

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Transcript of Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping

Page 1: Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping

Nathanael Melia | Ed Hawkins | Keith Haines

GC11G-1099

Trans-Arctic shipping routes proliferate

References1. Melia N, Haines K, & Hawkins E. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5

simulations, Cryosphere, 9, 2237-2251, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015, 2015.

2. Transport Canada. Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS). 1998.

3. Tan X, Su B, Riska K, & Moan T. A six-degrees-of-freedom numerical model for level ice–ship interaction. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 92, 1-16, doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.03.006, 2013.

Contact information• Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6AH, UK.

• Email: [email protected]

• Web: www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sq011930/home/

• --

SummaryThe observed reduction in Arctic sea ice opens up the potentialfor shorter shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean leading topotentially significant global economic savings. Wedemonstrate, using bias corrected1 global climate models(GCMs), that the projected continuance of sea ice melt throughthe 21st century increases opportunities for ships to sailthrough the Arctic, to the USA and Europe, from East Asianports. Transit potential for Open Water vessels (OW) doublesfrom early to mid-century and coincides with the opening ofthe trans-polar sea route. Although seasonal, routes becomemore reliable with an increased shipping season length.

Climate models• A subset of five bias corrected1 GCMs from CMIP5 (HadGEM2-ES, CCSM4,

CESM-CAM5, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR).

• Two future emission scenarios are assessed, RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (high).

• Three ensemble members from each GCM are used, 15 total.

• For each period, 15 Septembers in the 15 member ensemble are tested, hence 225 attempted transits to each destination in each panel (Fig. 1a-f).

Ship-route algorithm • The algorithm finds the fastest possible route when ice conditions permit.

• The Canadian ice regime system2 is used for vessel ice limitations. OW can transit through sea ice thickness (SIT) of up to 0.15 m, Polar Class 6 vessels (PC6) up to 1.2 m.

• A speed – SIT relationship3 is incorporated; vessels can travel through ice but at a reduced speed; longer ice-free routes may be faster.

Season length and variabilityThrough the 21st century routes become more reliably open and the shipping season length increases. Inter-annual variability is evident throughout.

Improved Projections of 21st Century Trans-Arctic Shipping

Figure 1. Fastest available September transits to the USA and Europefrom East Asia. Cyan lines represent Open Water vessels (OW) and pinklines represent Polar Class 6 vessels (PC6), line weight indicates thenumber of simulated vessels using the same route. The percentagesshown in Greenland represent the success rate of trans-Arctic voyages foreach vessel class respectively. The bean plots labelled USA and EURrepresent the distribution of the successful transit times to thesedestinations relative to their theoretical fastest possible route.

Figure 2. Season length and variability for Open Water vessels inRCP8.5. The three major rows represent different routes: Northern SeaRoute (NSR), North West Passage (NWP) & Trans-polar Sea Route (TSR).Sub-rows – month; colours – number of ensemble members open.