Importance of Decision Making Measure Regulation Influence.

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Importance of Decision Making •Measure •Regulation •Influence

Transcript of Importance of Decision Making Measure Regulation Influence.

Page 1: Importance of Decision Making Measure Regulation Influence.

Importance of Decision Making

• Measure

• Regulation

• Influence

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Impact

Process

Assess/Understand

Thinking

Perceptual Issues

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What Makes Making a (Good) Decision so Difficult?

• Multiple Criteria

– conflicting values

• Intangibles

– Unknowables, Unmeasurables

• Uncertainty

• Consequences– Long/Short ; Near/Far ; Intended/Unintended

• Our Knowledge is Always Incomplete

• Our Knowledge is influenced by Perception

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What do you see?

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What do you see now?

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Paris

in the

the Spring

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Types of Decisions Managers Make

• Programmed

• Non-Programmed

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A company was losing money. Key managers were asked to investigate the

decline in sales• Marketing Manager framed the problem…

– a lack of advertising & promotional support

• Sales Manager framed the problem…– a lack of promotion and distributor support programs

• Manufacturing framed the problem…– inaccurate forecasting by marketing and sales,

causing poor production planning

• Finance framed the problem…– budget overruns by all departments and unreliable

forecasts by marketing

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Some Decision Traps• (Mis-) Framing

– limiting our questions

• Anchoring

– disproportionate wt to 1st info, biasing subsequent thinking

• Status Quo

– decisions tend to involve the least change

• Confirming Evidence

– use of (only) data that confirms pt of view

• Escalation of Commitment

– “throwing good $ after bad”, “avoid being wrong in the past”

• Overconfidence

– never doubting what one believes

– fear of admitting that you don’t know

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Decisions are Made:

• Individually

• Individually But With the Consultation of Others

• Group

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Group Decision Making

• GroupThink

• Debating Group

• Ideal Group Process

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GroupThink

ConvergentThought

Problem A Conclusion

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Discussion& Debate

Problem

No Action Decision Process

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Ideal Decision Process

Problem Dialogue Discussion Action

Divergent Thinking

Convergent Thinking

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Ways of Dealing with Problems• Avoid making a decision

– simply ignore an issue exists

• Reactive in making a decision

– event level mgmt, problems of the day, circumstance directed

• Proactive in making a decision

– anticipate, prevention, problems=opportunity

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Ways to Find a Solution• Logical/Rational Thinking

– reductionistic, one-at-a-time, mechanical, memory based

• Intuitive Thinking

– connecting many, relationships, flexible, less reliance on mechanical thinking, creative

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Confidence vs UncertaintyD

egre

e of

Con

fide

nce

Amount of Uncertainty

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Types of Problems Managers Face• Structured

– familiar, constant circumstances

• Unstructured

– ambiguity, not logically apparent

• Crises

– isolate and identify real issue, time is short, full information is lacking

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Common Mistakes in Problem Solving

• Deciding on the Focus

• Confusing Symptoms for the Problem

• Selecting the Wrong Problem

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A Problem Solving Process• Identify & Define the Problem

• Analyze the Potential Causes & Gather Information

• Generate Possible Solutions

• Evaluate & Select a Course of Action

• Implement the Solution

• Monitor and Follow Up & If not solved, return to step 2 above

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Given the following symptoms, what is the problem and what is your plan for its resolution?

PersonalFinancialWorries

BalancingWork & Family

Little or norecognitionof achievement

Poor InternalCommunication

PoorLeadership

Burdened w/work hrs & load

Insuff. Resources

Lack ofMgt Support

Co.Politics

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What is Creativity?• An Attitude

– willingness to embrace doubt, uncertainty, curious

– willingness to suspend judgment

• An Ability– to generate new ideas, to be playful with ideas– to seek challenge– constructive discontent

• A Process– it takes time, it is not the result of a single

stroke of brilliance

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The Creative Process

Preparation Incubation

Elaboration

Evaluation

Insight

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Creativity• Preparation

– Knowledge– Non-mechanical thinking

• Incubation & Insight– Unconscious thinking– Intuition– Creative Leap

• Evaluation & Elaboration: Development– Seeking the logic of it all– Reality altering check

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Critical vs Creative Thinking

• Analytic• Linear• Objective• Rational• Logical• Convergent• Left Brain

• Generative• Non-Linear• Subjective• Non-Rational• Non-Logical• Divergent• Right Brain

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Obstacles to Creativity• Looking for the Right Answers• Trying to be Logical• Strictly following The Rules & Tradition• Avoiding Ambiguity• Having an Expert Mind vs Beginners Mind• Fearing Failure• Forgetting How To Play• Believing “You’re not Creative”• Failure to Express (& Be Playful with) Ideas• Failure to be Open, Flexible & Tolerant to Different

Ideas– prejudice, stereotype thinker, rigid