Implications of climate change on glacier tourism demand in IcelandJohannes T. Welling, University of Iceland

Responsible Tourism in DestinationsJyväskylä, Finland - 9-10 Jun 2016

Photo by VilleMiettinen

“Current glacier extents are out of balance with current climatic conditions, indicating that glaciers will continue to shrink in the future even without further temperature increase (high confidence)” (IPCC AR5 WG1, 2013)

Goal & Methodology

Examine the implications ofclimate change for futureglacier visitation in Iceland.

1. Identify climate change induced impacts on glacier tourism and adaptive responses on regional scale

Method: glacier site observation + interviews glacier tour operators (9)

2. Develop future exploratory scenarios of glacier sites

Source: regional glacier volume development scenarios

3. Assess potential impact of glacier tourism demand in near future

Method: Visitor Questionnaire (N=574)

Research framework

Nr. Glacier sites Main recreation activities Visitors(2015)

1 Skaftafellsjökull Sightseeing, educational hikes 50.4302 Svínafellsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, ice-climbing 88.4714 Fjallsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours 157.9076 Jökulsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours 510.8278 Heinabergsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, kayak tours 6.71010 Hoffellsjökull Sightseeing, ATV tours 20.368

Study area: Vatnajökull region

Climate change impacts: Glacier thinning and recession

Climate change impact: pro-glacial zone extension

Source: Magnússon et al. 2012

Impacts on glacier tourism

1. Accessibility Distance to glacier Steepness Blocking routes

2. Hazards Rock-fall Moraine landslides

Impacts on glacier tourism

3. Scenery degradation Glacier coverage glacier view ‘disappearance’

4. Recreation opportunities Glacier lake boat tours Geomorphological heritage

(geomorphosites)

Adaptation measures

1. Technical means: bridges, transport vehicles

2. Rerouting and changing sites

3. Diversification: extending or changing tour portfolio

Quantitative research: Visitor survey (N=574)

Results: activities conducted at glacier sites (N=574)

Performed activity Respondents % Period of performanceSight-seeing glacier from distance

425 74% All year around

Guided hike on glacier 204 36% All year aroundGlacier lake boat tour 85 15% SummerIce cave tour 63 5% WinterIce climbing 38 3% SummerSnow-mobile tour 28 2% SummerSuper jeep tour 28 2% All year around

Respondents’ motivations to visit glacier sites

0 1 2 3 4 5

Experience new thingsSee glacier in real-life

Be close to natureThrilling experience

Change from everyday lifeExperience peace and calm

Friends and FamilyVisit glacier before disappears

A story to tellPersonal spiritual values

Motivation to visit glacier site N=570

Likert scale: 1 =not important at all – 5 = very important

Respondents’ attitudes towards climate change

3 5

21

3437

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree

I am concerned about climate change (%)

1 1 8

21

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Totallydisagree

Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree

Climate change is happening now (%)

Respondents’ attitudes towards climate change

2 3

15

28

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree

Climate change is a result of human activity (%)

11

24

32

20

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Totallydisagree

Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree

Climate change is result of natural causes (%)

How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568)

Not willing28 %

Neutral 30 %

Willing 42 %

you could not come within 150 m of the glacier

Not willing23 %

Neutral 27 %

Willing 50 %

you have to walk 1,5 hrs to come to the glacier margin

How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568)

Not willing47 %

Neutral 32 %

Willing 21 %

the glacier was for a big part covered with sand and stones

Not willing31 %

Neutral 28 %

Willing 41 %

it is necessary to take a guided tour for a safe passage to and on the glacier

How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568)

Not willing42 %

Neutral 30 %

Willing 28 %

you have to cross a lake with a commercial boat to come to the glacier margin

Not willing52 %

Neutral 25 %

Willing 23 %

it is only possible to come to the glacier margin by commercial truck or jeep

Conclusions and further research

• Climate change has already and can have considerable impacts on future visitation of the glacier sites.

• Disclaimer: - multiple factors - to say is not the same as to do

Thank you for your attention!