Saliem Fakir, Head of the Policy

Futures Unit , WWF-SA

Implications of a Nuclear Build

for

South African

© In

du

stry

.SA

1. How much will nuclear cost us?Nuclear capital costs according to IRP 2010 Update

Reality check!What can we learn from the global experience?

The US

• Average cost overrun in first round of reactors 207%

Finland

• Areva EPR reactor project 50%+ overrun

The UK

• Sizewell B - cost £1.8 billion as opposed to a projected £300 million

• Hinkley Point C - Construction cost of of £7bn per reactor as opposed to

originally promised £2bn per reactor

• Most expensive power on system - £95-100/MWh, more than double

2013 wholesale electricity cost

France

• EDF’s Falmanville – Euro 3.3 bn in 2012 to Euro 8.5 bn in 2016

More realistic capital cost estimates?

We don’t know yet….

Russian, Chinese loans? At what cost? Are we mortgaging SA?

Public-private financing?

South African government/tax payers?

Eskom has already indicated that based on its current balance sheet and existing electricity tariffs it cannot pay.

2. How will the nuclear programme be financed in SA?

Who carries the payment risk?

Consumers?• Higher electricity tariffs with time and cost overruns

Tax payers?

• Government guarantees’ the loans so that if company cannot repay the loans, the government, i.e., taxpayers, pay the banks back

• US - $18.5 Billion available in taxpayer loan guarantees; Industry has already requested $122 Billion in taxpayer guarantees

• Europe - Loans of €2bn for Areva’s Olkiluoto supported by loan guarantees of €700m from the French (€600m) and Swedish (€100m) governments

Vendor?

• Nuclear particularly unsuitable for turnkey contracts (vendors offer fixed terms - no matter what the project costs, buyer only pays original contract price)

• Poor record time and cost management

• Building a nuclear power plant involves a large number of companies & a large amount of site fabrication & installation

3. What is our electricity demand and can it be met by other technologies?

IRP 2010 Update Electricity Demand Projections

Based on capital costs alone is nuclear the best option to meet our projected demand?

4. 9.6GW of nuclear by 2030 - Really?

Medupi Kusile

Work started: May 2007 April 2008

Estimate in Nov 2007 1st unit: April 2011/ last unit January 2015

1st unit: March 2012; Last unit December 2015

Estimate in July 2012 1st unit: August 2013; last unit May 2017

1st unit December 2014;last unit August 2018

Estimate in Feb 2014 1st unit: 2cnd half of 2014

Estimate in April 2015 Fully operational in 2021 Fully operational in 2021

What have Medupi and Kusile taught us?

5. Spent fuel management, radioactive waste, liability issues and decommissioning costs…

Is nuclear really worth it?

Just some examples of nuclear safety and security concerns in SA:

• Security breach at Necsa’s Pelindaba facility on 28 April 2012 – incident report only submitted to NNR on 7 July 2012.

• April 2012 NNR suspended Necsa’s acceptance of nuclear waste from Koeberg following non-compliance at Vaalputs nuclear waster storage facility.

• November 2012 police discover radioactive material at a scrap metal recycling facility in Epping, Cape Town

6. We cannot do nuclear without asking some important questions

• If affordability of electricity is a key concern for the country, how can nuclear be justified?

• How will nuclear be paid for?

• Who should pay for nuclear accidents? How should capacity to pay be ensured?

• What risks are appropriate as far as nuclear waste is concerned? Who should pay for waste management?

• Is large bulky infrastructure the route to go in light of new emerging technologies which are starting to change the energy landscape?

• Nuclear cannot meet the current electricity supply shortages– how do we prevent a oversupply when nuclear comes on board?

Thank youEnkosi

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DankieKe a lebohaKe a lebohaNgiyabonga

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