Implementing Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning...

ImplementingMulti-HazardImpact-basedForecastandWarningServicesAreportonaWorkshoporganizedbyChinaMeteorologicalAdministration–ShanghaiMeteorologicalServiceandtheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery

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12–15December2016

Shanghai, China

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AcknowledgementsThisworkshopwasmadepossiblewith the financial supportofWorldBankand theGlobalFacility forDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR).TheOrganizersaregratefultoWuyunQiqigefromtheShang-hai Meteorological Service (SMS) of the ChinaMeteorological Administration (CMA), Anna-Maria Bog-danovaandLucyHancockfromGFDRRforthelogisticalarrangements.The Organizers would also like to thank Haleh Kootval from the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)forherleadershipindevelopingtheconceptsofimpact-basedforecastingandwarningsservicesandmulti-hazardearlywarning systems;and thankcolleagues from theShanghaiTyphoon InstituteofCMA and the UKMet Office formaterials and guidance on the operational implementation of impact-basedwarningservices.

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TableofContents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2

PREFACE 5

SUMMARY 6FORECASTINGIMPACTS 6PROBABILISTICPREDICTIONS 6RISKMATRIX 6VISUALIZINGWARNINGS 6TRANSITIONINGWARNINGSERVICES 7WORKSHOPFINDINGS 7FEEDBACK 7

INTRODUCTION 9

WORKSHOPFORMAT 10

WORLDBANK/GFDRRANDSHANGHAIMETEOROLOGICALSERVICEACTIVITIES 10OVERVIEWOFTHEWORLDBANKANDGFDRRPROGRAMSSUPPORTINGMODERNIZATIONOFHYDROMETANDEARLYWARNINGSYSTEMS 10OVERVIEWOFSHANGHAIMULTI-HAZARDEARLYWARNINGSYSTEM(MHEWS) 11OPERATIONSOFTHEMETEOROLOGICALSERVICE,HYDROLOGICALSERVICEANDDISASTERMANAGEMENTIN

SHANGHAI 14

IMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDWARNINGSERVICES 16WHATISANIMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDWARNINGSERVICE? 16IMPLEMENTINGIMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDWARNINGSERVICES 20STEP1:DEVELOPTHERISKMATRIX 21STEP2:IDENTIFYEVENTSANDHAZARDS 23STEP3ASSESSVULNERABILITIESRELATEDTOTHEIDENTIFIEDHAZARDS 24STEP4DEVELOPIMPACTTABLES 25STEP5DEVELOPADVISORYTABLES 25KEYELEMENTSOFANIMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDWARNINGSERVICE 26PARTNERSHIPS 26JOINTDEVELOPMENTOFINFORMATIONANDSERVICES 26DEVELOPINGCAPACITYOFNMHSS’ANDDISASTERMANAGEMENTSTAFF,PARTNERSANDUSERS 26VALIDATION 27PUBLICWEATHERSERVICEANDSTANDARDOPERATINGPROCEDURES 27THEPRACTICEOFIMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDRISK-BASEDWARNINGSERVICESINSHANGHAI 28THECASEOFURBANFLOODING 28EXPOSUREANDVULNERABILITY 29URBANFLOODIMPACT-BASEDFORECASTANDRISK-BASEDWARNINGSYSTEM 29URBANFLOODINGASSESSMENTMODEL 31VERIFICATION 31DETERMININGURBANFLOODINGIMPACTLEVELSANDRELEVANTHAZARDTHRESHOLDS 32WARNINGICONS 32SERVICEINTERFACES 32

CHINANATIONALPERSPECTIVE 34

METEOROLOGICALOPERATIONSATSHANGHAIMETEOROLOGICALSERVICE 36

PARTICIPANTCASESTUDIES 37BANGLADESH 38

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CHILE 40DEMOCRATICREPUBLICOFCONGO 41GHANA 43LAOPEOPLESDEMOCRATICREPUBLIC 45MALI 46MYANMAR 47NEPAL 49PACIFIC–FIJI,SAMOAANDTONGA 50TONGA 50SAMOA 51SRILANKA 54

IMPACT-BASEDFORECASTINGEXERCISES 57EXERCISE1 57EXERCISE2 57EXERCISE3 57EXERCISE4 57

CONCLUSIONS 58

REFERENCES 59

ANNEX1WORKSHOPPARTICIPANTS 60

ANNEX2WORKSHOPAGENDA 62

ANNEX3EXAMPLESOFIMPACTMATRICESFORMYANMAR,MOZAMBIQUEANDMAURITIUS 66

ANNEX4IMPACTFORECASTANDWARNINGTEMPLATE 71

ANNEX5PARTICIPANTFEEDBACK 73

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PrefaceTheworkshopdescribedhereispartofaseriesofactivitiesconductedbytheWorldMeteorologicalOr-ganization(WMO)andtheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR)toshareconceptsandpractices on the implementationof impact-based forecast andwarning services. TheGFDRRorga-nizedeventsarefocusedonintroducingtheseconceptsincountrieswheretheWorldBankismakingorplanningtomakeinvestmentstomodernizeNationalMeteorologicalandHydrologicalServices(NMHSs)and disastermanagement organizations. GFDRR and the ShanghaiMeteorological Service (SMS) of theChinaMeteorologicaladministration(CMA)havealong-standingpartnership,whichstartedwiththein-troduction ofMulti-Hazard EarlyWarning Systems (MHEWS) toWorld Bank clients and to theWorldBankstaffin2012and2013andhasevolvedtoincludethenewestideasonimpact-basedforecastingandwarningservices.TheWorkshopbroughttogetherpractitionersfromWorldBankclientcountries,WorldBankTaskTeamLeaders(TTLs)andexpertsfromSMSandGFDRRtosharebestpracticesintransformingearlywarningsystems intomulti-hazard impact-based forecast andwarning services. An impact-based forecast andwarningservice,atitssimplest,isthetranslationofhazardjargonintoclearinformationaboutthelikelyimpact. Supplementing the forecast of “60 knotwinds”with the likely impact on homes, for example,wouldraiseawarenessoftheactualthreattolifeandproperty.Morequantitativeimpact-basedforecastsexplicitlyconsidervulnerabilityspecificlocations–elevationandriskofflooding;qualityofbuildingsandbridgestowithstandwind,mudslides,floodwater;theresilienceofcriticalinfrastructure,suchaselectri-calpower,waterandsanitation;theresilienceofhospitals,schoolsandotherpublicservices,aswellasthecapacityofgovernmentandpeopletorespond.Thetimingandlocationoflivelihoodactivities,suchasfarmingandfishing,whichexposepeopledirectlytohazards,suchaswinds,lightningandwaves,needtobequantifiedsothatimpact-basedforecastsaretailoredtothoseatrisk.Implicit in this approach is theneed to shift fromdeterministic to probabilistic forecasting techniquesthathighlightnotonlythemostlikelyimpact,butalsoreasonableworstcasescenarios,whichareoftenthe cause of avoidable disasters. Also, there needs to be greater emphasis on couplingmeteorological,hydrological,hydraulicandoceanmodelswithindecision-supportsystemsthatfacilitatecriticaldecision-making.Successfulimplementationofimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicesrequiresasignificantchangeinworkingpracticesamongmeteorologists,hydrologists,disastermanagersandthoseresponsibleforcriti-caldecision-making.Closeoperationalcooperationisessential.

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Summary

ForecastingimpactsImpact-basedforecastandwarningserviceshavebeenidentifiedasahighprioritybyWMOMemberstoincrease the relevance andutility of theirNationalMeteorological andHydrological Services’ (NMHSs)forecastsandwarnings.Impact-forecastsemphasizewhatahazardwilldoratherthanwhatahazardwillbe. Achieving this requires NMHSs to increase their emphasis on delivering risk-based1forecast andwarning services.WMO,WorldBank- andGFDRR- supportedmodernization efforts already emphasizeservicedelivery.Movingbeyondhazard forecasting isa significant step-up, requiringeffectivepartner-ships with many different government agencies, as well as volunteer organizations and non-Governmentalorganizations,whichhaveaccesstorelevantdata.Thisisperhapsoneofthemostdifficultthings to achieve andwhere theWorldBankGroup (WBG) has a role through its convening power tobring togethermanyof theactors and stakeholders tohelpNMHSs anddisastermanagement agenciescreate thenecessarypartnershipsanddatasharingarrangements;andencouragingotherdevelopmentpartnerstosupportthisapproach.Impact-basedforecastingandwarningservicesfocusontranslatingmeteorologicalandhydrologicalhaz-ards intosector-and location-specific impacts,and thedevelopmentof sectorial responses tomitigatethoseimpacts.Byfocusingonimpacts,itisexpectedthatthoseexposedtoahazardwillhaveabetterun-derstandingoftheriskandwillmorelikelytakeappropriateaction.

ProbabilisticpredictionsSuccessfulimplementationdependsongoodworkingrelationsamongallstakeholdersandclosecoopera-tionbetweenstakeholdersandtheNMHS.Inturn,togeneraterisk-basedmeteorologicalandhydrologicalforecasts, the NMHSmust have access to the best available probabilistic weather prediction guidancefromnumericalmodels.Thisisoftenthemostchallenging,butincreasinglypossibleashigherresolutionensemblenumericalweatherpredictionsbecomeavailablefromtheWMOglobalproductioncentresandtheWMORegionalSpecializedMeteorologicalCentres(RSMCs),whicharetaskedtosupportNMHSs.Thiscanbetakenastepfurthernationallyifthecountryhasthecapacityandcapabilitytorunveryhighreso-lutionmodels(betterthan2kmresolution),whichincorporateassimilationoflocaldatafromradarandotherobservingsystems.Ifthisisnotpossiblerelianceontheglobalandregionalcentresmaybeasuffi-cientmeaningfulfirststep.

RiskmatrixThelevelofriskrelatesthelikelihoodofahazardhappeningandtheanticipatedlevelofimpact.Thelike-lihoodofthehazardisanoutputofanensembleprediction,whiletheexpectimpactisestimatedbasedontimeofday,timeofyear,pastoccurrences,expertknowledgeandawiderangeofsocietalandeconomicparametersrelatedtotheresilienceofpeopleandinfrastructure.Aclimatologyofriskcanbebuiltusinghistoricaldata.

VisualizingwarningsWhilenotessentialforthesuccessfulimplementationofimpact-basedforecastandwarningservices,itishighlydesirabletodevelopmap-basedwarningsystems.Oneapproachdividesacountryintoaconven-ientgridandusescolourstorepresentwarninglevelswithineachofthegridboxes.Thiswasoriginallydeveloped byMétéoFrance and has been adopted Europe-wide through theMeteoAlarm portal. Othercountriesarefollowingthisexample,whichenablesstakeholderstovisualizeat-a-glancethegeographicalextentandtypeofwarning.Updatedfrequently,warningsevolveduringaneventandinresponsetoac-tionstakentomitigaterisks.Thistoolhasbeenusedtodisplaytraditionalmeteorologicalwarningsand,more recently, sector-specific impact-warnings. It also highlights the importance of common colour-codingforspecificlevelsofriskregardlessofthehazard,impactorsector.Thiswayabetter“feeling”forriskisestablishedacrossallsectors.

1“Risk-based”considersthesocio-economicimpactsofahazardintegratinghazarduncertaintywithvul-nerability and exposure information. The terms “risk-based” and “impact-based” are often used inter-changeably.

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TransitioningwarningservicesWMOandtheWBGareplayingakeyroleinpromulgatingbestpracticesfromtheleadingpractitionersofimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicestotheirMembersandclients,respectively.Theworkshop,hostedbytheSMSwiththesupportoftheWBG,providedanopportunityformeteorolo-gists,hydrologistsanddisastermanagersfromWBGclientcountriestoshareexperiencesandlearnaboutnewpracticesinthedeliveryofwarningservices.ThecurriculumwasdevelopedinpartnershipwiththeWMOWeatherandDisasterRiskReductionServicesDepartment(WMO/WDS),SMSandGFDRR.Itintro-ducedparticipantstotheShanghaiMultiHazardEarlyWarningSystem(MHEWS)andbestpracticesim-plementedby theCityofShanghai for themanagementandmitigationofmultiplehazards through thecombinedeffortsof theSMS, theShanghaiWaterAffairsBureau,andtheShanghaiEmergencyManage-mentOffice.Methodstoimplementimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicesweresharedwithpartic-ipantsandexerciseswereconductedtodemonstraterisk-basedwarningtechniques.

WorkshopFindings• Participantsagreedthatthereisaneedforwarningstoemphasizetheimpactofhazardsbycon-

sideringthevulnerabilityofpeopleandassets.• Impact-basedforecastandwarningsservicesneedtobebasedonensemblepredictionstocap-

ture and exploit the uncertainty in the forecast to improve decision-making. A lot of effort isneededtoexplaintheconceptofuncertaintyinweatherandhydrologicalforecasts.Theuseofarisk-basedwarningmatrixbasedonlikelihoodofoccurrenceandlevelofimpactprovidesusefulguidance.

• Risk-basedwarnings should consider the impact: time of day; time of year; the hazard; non-meteorologicalandnon-hydrological factors;antecedentconditions;ruralversusurbanfactors;andthelikelihood:forecastuncertainty,mostlikelyscenario;andreasonableworstcasescenar-io.

• EmergencyManagers agreed that the conceptof likelyimpact and reasonableworstcase, intro-ducedbytheUKMetOffice,isausefulwayofconveyinginformationonlowlikelihood,buthighimpactevents,andthisapproachcouldfacilitatebetterdecisions.

• Colour-coding theriskmatrixandmapping improvescommunicationof thewarnings.Theriskmatrixshouldalwaysaccompanythewarningbecauseitprovidesadditionalinformationonthelikelihoodandseverityoftheimpact.Warningsaregenerallyissuedonlyiftheimpactislikelytobemediumorhigh.

• Good communication among meteorologists and hydrologists, disaster managers and otherstakeholdersisessentialforproperactionsinresponsetoimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings.Warningsystemsshouldbedevelopedwiththeparticipationofallstakeholders.

• NMHSsneedstaffspecializedinadvisingpartnersbyprovidingthe interfacebetweenthetech-nicalmeteorologicalandhydrologicalforecastsandtheinterpretationoftheimpact-basedwarn-ingsbyemergencymanagersandotherdecision-makers.Thehuman-to-human interaction isacriticalcomponentofeffectivewarningservices.

• Theresilienceofindividuals,communities,infrastructure,etc.determinesthelevelofimpactand,therefore,theseverityofrisk.Highresiliencemayoccurwithinanotherwisevulnerablelocationbecauseofpreparedness,qualityofinfrastructure,accesstoshelters,etc.Twoadjacentcommu-nitiesmay,therefore,experiencedifferentlevelsofriskforthesamehazard.

• Emphasizingimpactsmeansthatwarningstendtobemorelocalized–geographically-specificorrelatedtoanactivity.

• Afloodforecastisasecondaryhazardderivedfrommeteorologicalconditions;afloodforecast,therefore,isnotanimpact-basedforecast.Riverlevelsandwarningthresholdsontheirowndonotconveysufficientinformationabouttheimpactoftheflood,whichmusttakeintoconsidera-tionvulnerabilityandexposurefactors.Thesameapproachtoimpact-basedforecastandwarn-ingservicesappliesequallytometeorologicalandhydrologicalhazards.

• Meteorologicalandhydrologicalmodelsneedtobecoupledtoensurethehydrologicalforecastisupdatedasthemeteorologicalsituationevolves.

• Historicaldataonhazardsandtheirimpactsisneededtocreatearobustriskmatrix.

FeedbackBasedonfeedbackfromtheparticipants,theworkshopwassuccessfulinsharingideasonimplementingimpact-basedforecastandwarningservices.Teamsfromcountriesandregionsthatincludedmeteorolo-

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gists,hydrologists,anddisastermanagersbenefited themost fromexercises.Fromthe forecastersper-spective,theparticipantshighlightedthat“whattheweatherwilldoisthefundamentalquestionthatallweatherforecastersshouldbeconcernedabout”.

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IntroductionEachyeartheimpactsofseverehydro-meteorologicaleventsaroundtheworldgiverisetomultiplecasu-alties and significant damage to property and infrastructure, with adverse economic consequence forcommunities,whichcanpersistformanyyears.Allthishappensdespitegoodforecastsofmanyofthesesevere events,with accuratewarning information disseminated in a timely fashion by the responsibleNMHSsanddisastermanagementagencies.The reasons for this apparent disconnect lie in the gap between forecasts and warnings of hydro-meteorologicaleventsandanunderstandingoftheirpotentialimpacts,bytheNMHSs,bytheauthoritiesresponsibleforcivilprotection/emergencymanagement,bythesectorsimpacted,andbythepopulationatlarge.Putsimply,whilethereisarealizationofwhatthehazardmightbe,thereisfrequentlyalackofunderstandingofwhatthehazardmightdo.Ifthisgapistobeclosed,thenanall-encompassingapproachtoobserving,modellingandpredictingse-verehydro-meteorologicalevents,andtheconsequentcascadeofhazardsthroughtoimpacts,isneeded.Tacklingthisproblemrequiresamulti-disciplinaryapproachtoaccessthebestpossiblescience,andtheoptimumservices,tomanagemulti-hazardeventstoday,andtoprovidethebestpossibleevidencebaseonwhichtomakethecostlydecisionsoninfrastructureinvestmentstoprotectthepopulationinthefu-ture.ThisisakeycomponenttoachievingthegoalsoftheSendaiframeworkfordisasterriskreduction(UnitedNations2015).All countries should provide their citizens and economic sectors actionable information thatwhereverpossible identifies the timing and anticipated impacts of specific hazards.An informedpopulation thatfullyunderstandswhatahazardwilldoismorelikelytotakethenecessaryactionsthatprotecttheirlivesandlivelihoods.Untilnow,mostWBGprojectsforNMHSshavefocusedoninstitutionalstrengthening,improvingobserv-ingand forecastingsystemsandthequalityofwarnings,which isanecessarybutnotsufficientstep tomitigating the adverse consequences of hydrometeorological hazards. NMHSs must also work closelywithemergencyservices,disasterreductionandcivilprotectionagenciestosharedataandtointerpretforecastsintoaformthatresultsinappropriateactionsbyeveryone(RogersandTsirkunov2013).Thisisanewarea formanyNMHSs,since itrequiresextensiveknowledgeofhowmeteorologyandhydrologyaffectsday-to-dayactivities,thevulnerabilityofinfrastructure,andthelikelybehaviourofpeopleduringanemergency.NoneofwhichmaybeavailablewithinNMHSsindevelopingcountries,someofwhichal-readystruggletoproducebasicmeteorologicalandhydrologicalforecastsandservices.Impact-basedforecasting,atitssimplest,isthetranslationofhazardjargonintoclearinformationaboutthelikelyimpact.Supplementingtheforecastof“60knotwinds”withthelikelyimpactonhomes,forex-ample,wouldraiseawarenessof theactual threat to lifeandproperty.Morequantitative impact-basedforecastsexplicitlytakeintoconsiderationlocation-specificvulnerability–elevationandriskofinunda-tion;qualityofbuildingsandbridgestowithstandwind,mudslides,floodwater;theresilienceofcriticalinfrastructure,suchaselectricalpower,waterandsanitation;theresilienceofhospitals,schoolsandoth-erpublicservices,aswellasthecapacityofgovernmenttorespond.Thetimingandlocationoflivelihoodactivities, such as farming and fishing,which expose people directly to hazards, such as floods,winds,lightning,andwaves,needtobequantifiedsothatimpact-basedforecastsaretailoredtothoseatrisk.Inmanycountries,thesedataaremoreandmoreroutinelyacquiredasapartofextensiveriskmappingpro-jects,oftensupportedbydevelopmentpartnersandtheGlobalfacilityforDisasterReductionandRecov-ery(GFDRR).ThishasseveralimplicationsforthefutureofNMHSs;theneedtodevelopthekindofskillsrequiredtounderstandhow theweather impacts society and thenecessary tools tomoreeffectively informusers.Somemayarguethatforecastingdisasterriskandforecastinghydrometeorologicalimpactsisbeyondtheremitofmeteorologistsandhydrologists;however,sincetherisksandimpactsassociatedwithextremeweathereventsaredynamicandsignificant,NMHSsareprobablybestequippedtopredicttheirimpact.And,inmanycountries,thoseaffectedaredemandingmorethanstatementsofexpectedweathercondi-tionsfromtheirNMHSs(WMO2012).Impact-basedforecastandwarningservicesarebeingpioneeredbyNMHSs in collaborationwith disastermanagement agencies. The techniques apply equally toweather,climateandhydrologicalhazards,aswellastheirconsequentialeffects.WMOhasrespondedbydevelopingguidelinesforthestaffofNMHSsonmulti-hazardimpact-basedfore-castingandwarningservices(WMO2015).Theworkshop,reportedhere,buildsonthisworkfocusingon

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thestepsneededtoimplementtheseservicesasapartofNMHSsmodernizationprojectsoftensupportedbyNMHSs’developmentpartners.

WorkshopFormatTheworkshopwasorganizedby theShanghaiMeteorologicalService(SMS)andGFDRRwith theassis-tance of World Meteorological Organization’s Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services(WMO/WDS)Department. The aimwas to share new techniques and knowledge on implementing im-pact-basedforecastandwarningserviceswithtechnicalstafffromWBGclientcountries’NMHSsanddis-astermanagementagenciesandwithWBGTaskTeamLeadsresponsibleformodernizationprojects.TheparticipantsarelistedinAnnex1.Theworkshopwasalsoanopportunityforparticipantstosharetheirnationalexperiencesandexchangeideasto improveforecastandwarningservices.ThefullagendacanbefoundinAnnex2.AllofthepresentationsreferredtoherecanbefoundinPart2ofthisreport.

WorldBank/GFDRRandShanghaiMeteorologicalServiceActivities

Overview of theWorld Bank and GFDRR programs supporting modernization of

HydrometandearlywarningsystemsThe first session focused on introducing the participants, the objectives and expected outcomes of theworkshop.VladimirTsirkunovandMakotoSuwaprovidedanoverviewoftheWBGandGFDRRprogramssupporting themodernization ofmeteorological and hydrological services and earlywarning systems.Basedonthecapacityofhydrometeorologicalservices,thestatusofearlywarningsystemsinsmallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS)andleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)isofconcern(Figure1).

Figure1EarlyWarningSystemsstatusinSIDSandLDCs(SourceTsirkunovandSuwa)

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This isbeingaddressed inagrowingnumberof countries through investments inhydrometandearlywarningsystemmodernizationprojects(Figure2).Theseprojectsemphasizenationalcapacitybuildingand institutional strengthening;modernization of infrastructure; and service delivery. It is also recog-nizedthatstrengtheningrelationsbetweenadvancedanddevelopingNMHSsthroughoperationaltwiningarrangementsisanimportantstepinrapidlyimprovingweakerinstitutions.

OverviewofShanghaiMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystem(MHEWS)Chen Zhenlin, Director-General, of the Shanghai Meteorological Service, CMA described the ShanghaiMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystem(MHEWS)andthepracticeofintegratedurbanweatherandclimate

services. Shanghai is a showcaseforamulti-hazardwarn-ing system and weather andclimate services because ofitssize(populationexceeding24million),itsimportanceinthe Chinese economy as afinancial, trade, transporta-tionandshippingcentre,andits vulnerability to weatherevents(Figure3).

Figure2SelectedWBG/GFDRRHydrometandearlywarningsystemprojects(Source:TsirkunovandSuwa)

Figure3SevereweatherdisastersinShanghai(Source:ChenZhenlin)

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In response, Shanghai has devel-oped an integrated urbanweatherand climate service that links a“seamless” weather and climateforecasting system from hours toweeks with an integrated impact-based forecast and risk warningsystem(Figure4).ThishasbeenputintopractiseaspartoftheShanghaiurbanfloodimpactforecastandwarnings(Figure5).Similarapproachesareusedforhealth,environment,railandairtransport.

Figure5Impact-basedforecastingandwarning:UrbanFlood(Source:ChenZhenlin)

Figure4ShanghaiIntegratedUrbanWeatherandClimate:TwoIntegrations(Source:ChenZhenlin)

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A feature of the Shanghai system is thedecision by the government to use theSMS earlywarning system platform forthe dissemination of all warnings. Thisensures close cooperation betweenemergencymanagementcommitteeandtheSMS,andallrelatedagencies(Figure6)The benefit of this system is illustratedin Figure 7. By shifting to a risk basedsystem, warning efficiency and effec-tiveness has improved with both num-berofwarningsandtimespentdecreas-ing by nearly 50%. The structure hasestablished the meteorological serviceas the first link in theDisasterRiskRe-ductionchain.Futureplans include estab-lishing a big data platformaccessible by related de-partments, enterprises andsocial media; establishingan intelligent meteorologi-calsystem,includingdigitaltools to integrate simula-tions, observations and im-pact-based weather fore-casts and risk warnings;andestablishingtheShang-hai e-weather service plat-form (E3 platform), includ-ingEarlywarningtriggeredservice for decision-making; Enterprises tai-lored service for economicactivity, and Everyone em-poweredserviceforthegeneralpublic.Ahighresolutionregionalnumericalmodellinginnovationcentrewill focus on impact-based forecasts and risk-informed warnings for urban flooding, aviation, marinenavigationhealthandlandtransportationbasedonhighresolutionnumericalweatherforecastingprod-ucts;transitioningfrombasicforecaststoimpact-basedforecastsusingimpactassessmentmodelsinco-operationwith partners; and transitioning fromwarnings based on fixedmeteorological thresholds tothosebasedonusers’riskmatriceswiththeintegrationofuserdecision-makingmechanisms.Otheref-fortswillfocusonbuildingcommunityresilience,andriskreductionandrisktransferthroughconstruc-tionstandardsandinsurance.

Figure6Mechanisms:ShanghaiEmergencyWarningCentre

Figure7BenefitAssessment(Source:ChenZhenlin)

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Operationsof theMeteorologicalService,HydrologicalServiceandDisasterMan-

agementinShanghaiAmoredetaileddescriptionoftheShanghaimeteorologicalandhydrologicalservices,anddisasterman-agementwaspresentedbyKongChunyanfromSMS,ZhangZhenyu,ShanghaiWaterAffairsBureauandYangXiaodong, ShanghaiEmergencyManagementOffice2.KongChunyandescribed thepublicweatherservice in Shanghai. She highlightedthe high frequency ofmeteorologicalhazards (Figure8).The greatest eco-nomic losses typhoonsare causedbytyphoons, but lightning causes themostciviliancasualties.Thecityishighlysensitivetometeor-ological factors. For example, duringthe summer, a 1°C increase in tem-peraturecanresult ina610,000Kil-owatt increase in thedailymaximumpower supply load and up to 58,000cubicmetresincreaseofwatersupplyinthedowntown(Figure9).

Figure9SensitivityofShanghaitometeorologicalfactors(SourceKongChunyan)

The publicweather service of the SMS has built differentiated services for its government, public andeconomicsectorstakeholders.Thegovernmentservicefocusesonguaranteeingthesafeoperationofthecitythroughacommandsupportsystemtoprovidedataandtechnologyforpolicymakerstodealwithemergencies. This includes the development of the emergencywarning platform described earlier. Animportantaspectoftheserviceforgovernmentdecision-makersistheconceptof“earlybriefing”,whichhasprovedeffective in reducing the impacts of disastrousweather events. Earlybriefings are given tospecialusersandagencieswellinadvanceofreleasingpublicwarningssothattheagencieshaveenoughtimetoreactandprepare(Figure10).

2TwoofthepresentationswereinChineseonlyandarenotincludedinthissummary.

Figure8HighFrequencyofmeteorologicalHazards(Source:KongChunyan)

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The service for produc-tion sectors focuses onboosting the economy ofthe city. SMSprovides tai-lored weather services tocustomers based on datafusion and impact-basedweather products to re-duce production loss and

increase benefits. Customers includetraffic, power, agriculture and travel.Forthepublic,thegoaloftheserviceisto improvequalityof life. SMScooper-ateswith socialmedia andusesmulti-dissemination channels to providecomprehensive services to the public.Shortmessages for thewhole city canbesenttoallmobilephones,andnew-generation multiplex broadcastingtechnologyhas beendeveloped to dis-seminate information via all publicmediaoutlets.Theservicestothepubic

alsopromotesocialparticipationinteractionandpublicinnovation.Forexample,SMSiscooperatingwithsocialmediatorunan“atmosphereperceptionprogram”.Usingaportablemobilesensor,basicmeteoro-logicaldataissharedviaapublicinteractionplatform(Figure11).Figure12illustrateshowthepublicweatherservicesservesallsectorsduringatyphoonInformationiscollectedfromvarioussources– weather, water levels, air quality, traffic,waterlogging,etc.Thesedataarepooledandanalysedtounderstandtheimpactofchangesin the weather conditions. This enables im-pact-basedforecastsandriskwarningsaboutwaterlogging, health, air pollution, aviation,metro,theexpressway,etc.(Figure13).

Figure10Earlybriefingofgovernmentagenciesinadvanceofpublicwarnings(SourceKongChunyan)

Figure11SMSAtmospherePerceptionProgram(Source:KongChunyan)

Figure12PublicWeatherServiceinaction(Source:KongChunyan)

Figure13Integratedurbanweatherandclimateservicebased

onriskmanagement

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Impact-BasedForecastandWarningServices

WhatisanImpact-basedForecastandWarningservice?DavidRogers,GFDRR, introducedthenecessarystepsto implement impact-basedforecastandwarningservices.Unlikeobjectiveweather,climateandhydrologicalforecasts,whichcanbedevelopedwithoneor two disciplines, impact-based forecasts require access to a wide-range of new data includingcrowdsourced,behaviouraland livelihood information,andtheresilienceof infrastructuresystemsandservices.Thus, therearemanymoreactors, includingcommunities,whichplayarole through theirre-sponsetoimpact-basedforecastsandprovidefeedbacktotheforecasters.Ineffect“last-mile”connectivi-ty between the communities affected and information providers becomesmuch stronger. Informationusersdrive the requirements for informationand therefore receive it ina form theyareexpectingandunderstand.Scalinguptheintroductionofmulti-hazardimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicesshouldbeviewedasacentralpartoftheefforttomodernizeNMHSs.ThisrequiresasignificantchangeinNMHSs’opera-tions, responsibilities, training and partnerships with other national and international actors. The ex-pectedbenefitwouldbeasignificantincreaseinthecapacityofcommunitiestotakeappropriateactiontoprotecttheirfamilies,livelihoodsandpropertyandthereforeareductionindisasters.Itwouldreachfarbeyondthetechnicalimprovementinservicestostrengthenresiliencewithincommunities.Inmany places,meteorological and hydrological hazards are likely to becomemore dangerous due toclimatechange.Existingcommunityexperienceandknowledgealonewillnotbesufficienttohandlethe-senewthreats.However,thecapacitytocopecanbeimprovedifthepublicareconsultedandengagedinthedevelopmentofwarningservicesthatareadaptedtotheirneeds.TheWMO guidelines define three forecasting paradigms –Weather forecasts andwarnings,which in-cludeinformationaboutthehazardonly;impact-basedforecastsandwarning,whichincludeinformationabout thehazardandvulnerability to thathazard;and impact forecastandwarnings,which include in-formationaboutthehazard,vulnerabilityandexposure.Vulnerabilityandexposuremaybedefinedinseveralways–forthepresentpurposesandinthecontextofmeteorologicalandhydrologicalhazards,byvulnerability,wemeanthesusceptibilityofexposedele-ments,suchaspeople,theirlivelihoodsandproperty,tosufferadverselywhenaffectedbyahazard.Vul-nerabilityisrelatedtopredisposition,sensitivities,fragilities,weaknesses,deficiencies,orlackofcapaci-ties that favour adverse effects on the exposed elements. Vulnerability is situation specific, interactingwiththehazardtogeneratedisasterrisk.Byexposure,wemeanwhoandwhatmaybeaffectedinanareainwhichhazardouseventsmayoccur.Ifthepopulationanditseconomicresourceswerenot locatedin(exposedto)potentiallydangeroussetting,noriskwouldexist.Exposureisanecessary,butnotsufficientdeterminantofrisk.Itispossibletobeexposedbutnotvulner-able, for example, by livingon a floodplainbuthaving themeans tomodifyingbuilding structuresandbehaviourtomitigatepotentialloss.However,tobevulnerableitisnecessarytobeexposed.Knowledgeofindividuals’exposuretoahazardislimitedatpresent.Wemakedecisionsbasedongeneralknowledgeandexperience,ratherthanonknowingthespecificcircumstancesofeveryoneatrisk.Henceevenimpactrelatedwarningsremainquitegenericwiththeonusontheindividualtoassesstheirexpo-sureandvulnerabilitytothehazardoroncivilprotectiontoactonbehalfofthoseatrisk.Soon,we can expect communication tools and socialmedia to advance to a pointwhere personalizedwarningswillbethenormindevelopedanddevelopingcountriesalike,anddirectfeedbackfrompeoplewillbepossibleastheyacttoreducetheirexposure.Inaddition,wecanexpectthesetoolstobeavailablein developing countries as well as developed. But for now, we focus primarily on developing impact-basedforecastandwarningservices,whichonlyconsiderthehazardandvulnerabilitytothehazardwithmoregenericassumptionsaboutexposure.

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TheevolutionofweatherforecaststoimpactforecastsissummarizedinTable1,whichisadaptedfromtheWMOguidelinesforthespecificcaseofatropicalcyclone.

Table1EvolvingWarningParadigmusingatropicalcycloneasanexample

TypeofForecastandwarning

Descriptionofforecastorwarning Factorsincorporated

GeneralForecast Inthenext24hours,thetropicalcycloneislikelytoimpactorhasalreadyhadanimpactonthetargetarea. Hazard

Warningswithfixedthresholds Inthenext24hours,thetropicalcycloneislikelytoimpactthetargetarea.

Averagewindspeedsof118-133km/hon-andoff-shoreorgustsof150-166km/h;thisconditionistocontinue

Hazard

Warningswithuserdefinedthresh-olds

Rainfallaccumulationsof200to300mmexpected,withahighprobabilityoftheoverflowofdrainagesysteminDistrictA

(Thiswarningwouldbeissuedbyamunicipalauthorityonly)

Hazard,Vulnerability

Warningswithspatialand/ortemporalvariationsinthresholds

Spatialdifferences:Tropicalcyclonewarning,gustsof150km/hgenerally,withlocalgustsinDistrictBexpectedtoexceed180km/h

Temporaldifferences:Tropicalcyclonewarning–rainfallaccumulationsof200to300mmexpectedtomorrowafternoonduringthepeakrushhour


Impact-basedwarning Rainfallaccumulationsmorethan200mmareexpectedtomorrow,expectroadclosuresandreroutingoftraffictoavoidfloodproneareas.

(Heretheimpactisroadclosures)


Impactwarning Basedontheriskof floodingalongyournormalcommutefromworkplacetohometomorrow,followthealternativeroute…flexibletimewillbeimplemented–Basedonyourusualworkschedule, leaveworkatleast1hourearlierthannormaltoavoidsignificantdelays.

(Heretheinformationisintendedtoreduceexposure,whilestillpermittingproductiveactivity)

Hazard,Vulnerability,exposure

Theimportanceofthisshiftfromweatherforecastsandwarningstoimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicesisillustratedinthefollowingcasefromUttarakhand,India(Box1).

ThecaseofUttarakhanddemonstratesthatunlesswarningsareissuedwithadequateknowledgeoftheimpactof thehazard, thedesired response from thepublicordisastermanagerswillnothappen.Thismeansthatmoreeffort isneededtouse impact-based forecastsandanalyses tobuildscenarios,andtouse these to train and educate the public, communities and sectors onwhat actionsmust be taken toavoiddisasters.InTonga,followingthedevastationcausedbyTropicalCycloneIaninJanuary2014,theMeteorologicalServicesurveyedtheareasworstaffectedbytheevent.Theyfoundthatpeopleevacuatedonlywhentheirhomesweredestroyedputtingthemselvesatgreatriskofinjury,whichhighlightedtheirlackofunderstandingof theseverityof theweatherwarning.Since thenTongahasmadesomesimple

Box1Thecaseforimpact-basedwarnings:UttarakhandFloods2013,India

IntheIndianStateofUttarakhand,themonsoonin June2013arrivedalmosttwoweeksearlierthanexpected.FromJune15to17,2013,heavyrainfall,375percentabovetherainfallthattheStatewouldnormallyreceiveduringthemonsoon,hitseveralpartsofthehigherreachesoftheHimalayas.ThisresultedinarapidincreaseinwaterlevelsthatgaverisetoflashfloodsintheMandakini,Alakananda,Bhagirathiandotherriverbasins,caus-ingextensive landslides.Continuous rains causedChorabariLake to rise andthe lake’sweakmorainebarriergavewaycausingahugevolumeofwateralongwithlargeboulderscamedownthechanneltotheeast,devastat-ingthetownsofKedarnath,Rambara,Gaurikundandothersinitswake.ThefloodswerewellforecastbytheIndianMeteorologicalDepartment(IMD)andtimelywarningsofextremelyheavy rainfall were issued. However, lack of understanding of how to interpret the information led to aninadequate response and significant loss of life. The published reponse from the Vice Chair of the NationalDisasterManagementAuthoritytypifiestheproblem“WegetacopyoftheIMDbulletinbutactionhastobetak-enbystategovernmentonly.Theyputoutbulletin(thistime)andsaid“veryheavyrain”.Whatdoes“heavyrain”mean?“Veryheavyrain”meansveryheavyrain.Butitdoesn’tmeanthatinsuchashorttimesomuchrain””1Accordingtoofficialsources,over900,000peoplewereaffectedbytheeventinUttarakhandwithofficialesti-matesof fatalities inexcessof5700, themajorityof themtouristsonpilgrimageto the State’sSikhandHinduholysites.1InterviewbyRediff.comwithM.ShashidharReddy,ViceChairofNDMA,immediatelyfollowingtheUttarakhandflood(seecompletetranscripthere-http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-uttarakhand-more-than-4000-deaths-are-expected/20130705.htm#1)

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firststepsbyaskingcommunitieswhatinformationwouldhelpthemmaketherightdecisionstoprotecttheirlives,livelihoodsandproperty.Warningsneedtorelatetofamiliarelementsoftheircommunities–theeffectofwindonbananatreesandcoconuttrees,forexample,ismorereadilyunderstoodthanwindspeed.Tangetal. (2012)highlightedthe importanceandeffectivenessofamultihazardapproachtoreducingdisastersbyunderstandinghowameteorologicalorhydrologicalhazardcanproducea seriesof socialconsequences,whicharealsopublichazards.Theemphasisonimpacts,therefore,alsoimpliesthewarn-ingsshouldberelatedtomultiplehazardssincetheinitialeventcancauseaseriesofcascadingthreatsorconsequentialeffects–publichealth,accidents, infrastructuredamage, civilunrest, food insecurity,etc.Ideally,eachoftheseshouldalsobeconsideredandthemeanstopredicttheirlikelihooddeveloped.Ob-viously,thesearenotnecessarilytheresponsibilityofNMHSs;however,aninclusiveapproachtocopingwithmultiplehazardswouldbemoreeffective.Thishighlightsnotonlythetechnicalrequirements,butalsotheneedforaneffectiveoperationalpartnershipamongstakeholders.Italsohighlightstheneedtodistinguishbetweenforecastinganevent,suchasatropicalcyclone,fromthenumeroushazardsresultingfromthatevent–flashfloods,riverinefloods,stormsurges,highwindsandwindgusts.Itistothelatterthatwewanttorelatetoimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings(Table2).

Table2Examplesofmultiplehazardsresultingfrommeteorologicalevents

Event Primaryhazard Secondaryhazard Tertiaryhazard

TropicalCyclones • Strongwinds• Lightning• Heavyrainfall• Tornados

• Riverineandcoastalflooding• Surfacewaterflooding• Flashflooding• Landinstability• Stormsurge

• Lossofinfrastructuresystemsandservices(shelter,transportation,schools,hospitals,energysupply,communication)

• Infectiousdiseases• Waterinsecurity• Widespreadeconomiclosses

Monsoons • Strongwinds• HeavyRainfall• Thunderstorms

• Riverineandcoastalflooding• Surfacewaterflooding• Flashflooding• Landinstability


• Infectiousdiseases• Widespreadeconomiclosses

Convectiverainstorms • Strongwinds• Tornados• Lightning• Heavyrainfall

• Riverineflooding• Surfacewaterflooding• Flashflooding• Landinstability


• Infectiousdiseases• Localeconomiclosses

Prolongedperiodofhotweather

• Heat • Thunderstorms(andtheirassociatedhazardphenomena)

• Drought• Dust/smog/haze

• Landinstability• Non-infectiousdiseases• Algalblooms• Foodinsecurity/nutrition• Waterinsecurity• Widespreadeconomiclosses

Prolongedperiodofdryweather

• Reducedrainfall • Dust/smog/haze/fog• Reducedgroundwaterflow• Deterioratingwaterquality• Drought

• Lossofinfrastructuresystemsandservices(energysupply)

• Non-infectiousdiseases• Infectiousdiseases• Foodinsecurity/nutrition• Waterinsecurity• Subsidence• Widespreadeconomiclosses

Excessivecoldwithfrost • Cold• Frost

• Windchill

• Lossofinfrastructuresystemsandservices(energysupply)

• Non-infectiousdiseases

Table2 illustratesthat thecascadeofhazards,whichtransformfrompurelymeteorologicalandhydro-logical intohazardsrelatedto infrastructuresystemsandservices,humanhealthandeconomicdisrup-tion.

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Understandingsectorial interdependencies (Table3) isalsonecessary todeterminevulnerabilitiesandthereforeindevelopingtheappropriateimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings.Addressingthesevulnera-bilitiesisawaytoincreaseresilienceandreducetheriskofdisasterstemmingfromafailuretocopeade-quatelywiththeprimaryandsecondarymeteorologicalandhydrologicalhazards(Rogersetal.2016).

Table3Examplesofsectorialinterdependenciesfor7sectors(sourceRogersetal.2016)

Sector DependenciesonInfrastructure Impactsonothersectors

Food • Waterforirrigation• Transportinfrastructureforagriculturalactivitiesandfoodsupply• Energyforstorageandagriculturalactivities

• Domesticisdependentonfoodsupply

Energy • Waterforcoolinginpowerstations,fuelrefiningandenergyproduction• Transportforfuelsupplyandworkforce• ICTforcontrolandmanagementsystemsofelectricity

• Transportisdependentonenergy• Foodproductionisdependentonenergy• Waterisdependentonenergyforpumping,treatmentandsupply• Domesticisdependentonenergyforheatingandcoolingandmanyother

functions

SocialandDomes-tic

• Food,WaterICT,Transport,Energyforallaspectsoflifeandlivelihoods• Emergencyservicesprovidingcontinuitytooperatewhilerecoveringfrom

anevent

• Allsectorsdependentonworkersandefficientdomesticconsumptionofsecto-rialresources

• Healthisdependentongeneralwell-beingofpopulationtoavoidoverwhelmingsector

• Waterdependsonwell-managedsanitationsystemstoavoidcontaminationofwatersupply

• Emergencyservicesinfrastructuredependsonpeopleforeffectiveresponse

ICT • Energyforallservices• Transportformaintenanceworkers

• AllsectorsdependentonICT

Transport • Domesticinfrastructurefortraveltoandfromwork,school,etc.• Energyinfrastructureforfuelandelectricity• Drainageinfrastructuretopreventflooding• Internaldependencieswithandacrossmodes(road,rail,sea,andair)

• Allsectorsdependontransport

Water • Energyfortreating,pumpingandprocessing• ICTforcontrolsystems• Transportforworkersandsuppliesforprocessing

• Allworkplacesanddomestichomesrequirewaterforpeopleandsanitation• Coolingwaterforsomeenergyinfrastructure• Energyinfrastructuremaydependonwaterforgeneration• Foodproductionrequireswater

EmergencyServices

• Transport(allmodes)forsafeandrapidevacuation,andemergencysup-plies

• Energytomanageemergencypumpstorelievefloodingandoperatefloodcontrols

• Healthinfrastructuretorespondtoemergencysituations• Waterinfrastructuretoextinguishfires• ICTtorespondeffectivelytoemergencysituations• Domesticinfrastructuretoprovidesecurityforpopulation

• Allsectorsdependonemergencyservicesforsafetyandsecurityduringemer-gencysituations

• Healthinfrastructureforemergencyresponse

Byunderstandingthevulnerabilityoftheinfrastructuresystemandservicestotheprimaryandsecond-aryhazards,itispossibletoprovidemoreaccurateandtimelywarningsthatwouldprotectapopulationfromexistingweaknessesininfrastructurethatcompoundthethreatofmortalityandmorbidityposedbytheinitialhazards.Collapseofbuildings,bridges,androadways,lossofICT,electricity,transportationandsanitationfrequentlycontributetocreatingthecircumstancesofsubsequentdisasters.Thestructureofawarningsystem,incorporatingimpact-basedforecasts,isshowninFigure14.Theme-teorologicalorhydrologicalhazardforecastdependsonglobal,regionalandlocalobservations,assimila-tionofthesedatainnumericalmodelsoperatedlocally,regionallyorgloballyandclimaterecords,espe-ciallytheclimatologyofextremeevents,whichprovideguidancetotheforecasters.Inatraditionalsys-tem based onweatherwarnings only, early briefings can be given to government stakeholders,whichenablesadequatepreparationaheadofpublicwarnings(Tangetal.2012).Theweatherwarningsystemmayalsoincludesomeassessmentoftheconsequencesofthehazard,whichcanbeusedtodeveloptheearlybriefing.Impactforecastsaretailoredtotheneedsofdifferentstakeholders;forexample,emergencyresponders,highwaysauthorities,waterresourcesagencies,municipalauthoritiesanddomesticandindustrialenergysuppliers,aswellasthepublicatrisk.Earlybriefings,basedonimpactforecasts,areusedtoassessthelikelyeffectofthehazardovertimeatspecificgeographical locations,highlightingwhenandwheretheimpactsmaybedangerousordisruptive tosociety.Earlybriefingenablesgovernmentagencies topre-pareforcontingenciestoprotectthepublicandcriticalinfrastructure.Publicwarningsfollowearlybrief-ingsperstandardoperatingprocedures(Tangetal.2012).In summary, effective impact-based forecast and warning services should inform about the cascadingthreatscausedbymeteorologicalandhydrologicaleventstopreventthehazardsfrombecominghumandisasters.Thisrequiresthecapacitytopredicttheonsetofspecificmeteorologicalandhydrologicalhaz-ards and the subsequent impactbasedon the vulnerability of a society to thosehazards, the ability tocommunicateandinform,andforsocietytounderstandthethreatsandbeabletakeappropriatemitigat-ingactions.

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TheNMHSmayormaynotberesponsiblefor issuing the impact-based warning. Insomecountries,thismaybethepurviewofthe disastermanagement agency or otherdesignatedauthority.Inallcases,however,thereshouldbeverycloseandcontinuouscooperation among the responsible agen-ciesincludingtheNMHS.Thisisparticular-ly important where the hazardous situa-tion may evolve rapidly escalating thethreatandtheneedtoupdatewarning in-formationfrequently.

ImplementingImpact-basedFore-

castandWarningServicesBased on the practical experience of theWorldBankandtheGlobalFacilityforDis-aster reduction and recovery (GFDRR),Rogers andTsirkunov (2013) recommendthat design and implementation of mod-ernization projects for NMHSs have threebasiccomponents– Institutionalstrength-ening, capacity building and implementa-tion support; modernization of observinginfrastructure and forecasting; and en-hancementoftheservicedeliverysystem.Fundamental to the introduction of im-pact-based forecast and warning servicesis ability to provide timely and accurate

forecastsofmeteorological andhydrologicalhazards.Thus, there isno short cut to the transformationfromtheforecastingof“whatthehazardwillbetowhatthehazardwilldo”.Itrequiresarethinkofthestructureoftheorganizationandthewayitoperates,anexpansionoftrainingtostrengthencapacitybothwithintheNMHSsandwithpartnerorganizationsandusers,andnewoperationalpartnerships.It requires investment in observingnetworks, including rehabilitation and reequippingmeteorological,hydrologicalandothernetworksasrequired,introducingground-basedremotesensingsystemsfornow-castingandvery-shortrangeforecasting,upperairmeasurements,qualitycontrolandcalibrationfacili-ties.ItrequiresthemodernizationofcommunicationandICTsystems,whichmeetWMOinformationsys-temstandards,archiving,datamanagementanddigitizing,andinthemoreadvancedNMHSsitmayin-cludecapacityforlimitedareanumericalweatherprediction.However,itisrecommendedtoencouragegreaterrelianceonregionalspecializedcentresforroutineNWPsupport,whichalsoentailsthewilling-nesstosharenationaldatatoprovidemorepreciseandaccuratemodelproducts.Theforecastingsystemrequires computerandvisualization systems toprocessobservationsandmodelproducts thatprovidetheforecasterwithguidance.Climatology-basedregionaland/orseasonalspecificthresholdscanprovideavaluablestartingpointofdiscussionsfortheforecasterinestimatingtheseverityandtheimpactofanevent.Enhancing service delivery starts with strengthening the public weather service function, particularlysupportfordisastermanagement,thepublic,andthemaineconomicsectors.Itiswithinthiscomponentthatweather,climateandhydrological forecastswouldbetransformedinto impact-basedforecastsandwarnings,distributedandcommunicatedwithstakeholders.Itisalsotheprimarymeanstoobtainfeed-backontheeffectivenessoftheforecastsandwarningsandtheactualsituationindisasteraffectedareas,and the means to update information on vulnerability and exposure. The relationship between theNMHSsservicedeliverysystemandemergency/disastermanagementshouldbeascloseaspossible,ide-allywithjointresponsibilityforissuingimpact-basedwarnings(RogersandTsirkunov2013).Itisessen-tialthatthisrelationshipisbasedontrustandmutualunderstandingofrespectiverolesandresponsibili-tiesofeachpartneragency. Similarly, closeworking relations shouldbeestablishedwithother sectorsbasedonthedevelopmentofsharedstandardoperatingprocedures(SOPs).

Figure11Schematicofinformationflowsfrombasicmeteorologicalandhydrologicalhazardforecastingtoimpactforecastingtoearlybriefingandwarningtoaction.Thefigurehighlightstheimportanceofearly

briefingtokeystakeholderspriortoissuingpublicwarningstoensureaneffectiveresponsefrompublicagencies.Thestandardmeteorologicalprocessisshowninblue;theadditionalimpact-basedforecastsand

warningsareshowningreen.

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Thefollowingisastep-by-stepguidetohelpNMHSsanddevelopmentpartnersinsettingupanimpact-basedwarningsystem.

Step1:DeveloptheRiskMatrix

Thebasictoolofanimpact-basedwarningsystemistheRiskMatrix (Figure15).Thematrixrelatestheexpected impactofahazard to the likelihoodofoccurrenceof thehazard.The likelihood isbestdeter-mined from a probabilistic forecast using ensemble techniques. The level of the impact is determinedfrom knowledge of vulnerability and exposure. Together, these determine the severity of thewarningusingafour-coloursystem–green,yellow,orange,red.

The arrangement of coloursinthematrixisbasedontheexperience of the UK MetOffice, and should be fixed.It is recommended thatwarnings should only beissued when the impact isexpected to be Medium orHigh.Theimpactofahazardmay increasewithout alter-ing the likelihood of thehazard: this occurs when

there is a forecast change in timingof thehazard; for example, a shift fromnight time to themorning“rushhour”.Itisthereforeimportantfordecision-makerstohaveaccesstotheriskmatrixaswellasthecolour-coded levelof thewarning.Aredwarning is limitedtohigh likelihood,high impactonly.There-fore,weshouldexpectthistobearelativelyrareoccurrence.Warnings fordifferenthazardsshouldbeconsistent; it isrecommended, therefore, toavoidcreatingalternativeclassificationsforwarningssincewewanttominimizetheriskofconfusionamongthoseatrisk.In the case of a warning affecting aregion, it is useful to map the warn-ing. One approach to visualizingme-teorological warnings is the “Vigi-lance météorologique” system devel-opedbyMétéoFrance(Figure16)andutilizedas the framework for theEu-ropeanMeteoAlarm (Figure 17). Thevigilance system utilizes a griddedmapbasedonadministrativebounda-ries – 100 French Departments. Al-ternatively, geographical divisionscould be used. The advantage ofmatching administrative boundariesis the presence of public officials ineach of the “grid cells”, which haveresponsibilityforthefirstresponsetoa warning. Colours – green, yellow,orange and red – are used to repre-senttheseverityofthewarning,whilesymbolsforeachofthemeteorologicalhazards–wind,rain,light-ning/thunderstorms,heatandsnow/icearedisplayedtoshowthetypeofhazard.Thishasmostlybeenusedforhazardwarnings,butmaybeadaptedtoimpact-basedwarnings.Eachgridcellmayhaveitsowngranularstructuredepictingamuchfinermeshandmoredetailedwarn-inginformation.Thisisparticularlyimportantwherethereareterrainfeatures,whichmayinfluencethemeteorologyorvulnerableinfrastructure,requiringveryhigh-resolutionforecasts.Thisfinerscalewillbedetermined largelyby the resolution andaccuracyof the availablenumericalweatherprediction guid-ance–ideally1kmorbetterinareasofcriticalinfrastructure.

Figure15Theriskmatrix(source:MetOffice)

Figure16ExampleofthevigilancemapusedbyMétéoFrancetodisplaywarningsofmeteorologicalhazardsandassociatedadvice

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Figure17ExampleofthegraphicaloutputfromtheMeteoAlarmportal.ThecolourcodingisconsistentacrossallparticipatingEuropeancountries.

Apotential limitationofthisapproachisthat it isnoteasytorepresentalternativescenarios–therea-sonableworstcaseversusthemostlikelyscenario.Inwhichcase,additionalinformationmaybeneeded(seeforexample,Figure18).Establishing a uniform colour-coding system across differentcountries is not easy, particularlyifacountryhasestablisheddiffer-entwarning systems for differentthreats,whichmayhavetheirownunique combination of colours,symbolsandnumbers.In theMeteoAlarmProgrammeofEUMETNET, led by ZAMG, thiswasovercomeby focusingnot onmeteorologicalparameters,butonthe priority of the impact of ex-tremeweather and the necessaryactions tobe takenbyemergencyrespondersandpeopleconcerned.Thisgaveaclearguidelineforme-teorological thresholds, whichmustdifferverymuchperthecli-matology of the different regions,vulnerability and exposure of en-dangeredpeopleandgoods.Thelevelredisthereforeprimarilydefinedbythesuccesscriteriaontheadvice:“followtheorderofau-thorities under all circumstances and be prepared for extraordinarymeasures” and in thisway, resultorientated,insteadofbeingfocusedonmeteorology.Thehomogenizationof theMeteoAlarmsystemprocess tookseveralyearsandrequiredclosecoopera-tionandexchangeofknowhowwithCivilProtectionand first responders.Within theparticipatingMetServices,collaborativedecision-makingwasawayto involveforecasters,climatologists,civilprotectionandmediaexpertsbothintheplanningandtheactualdecisionmakingprocess.AsEuropeancrosscountryinvestments,exchangeofworkforceandtouristmovementsincreasedsignifi-cantly during the last 15 years, a homogenizedwarning system ofwell-coordinatedNationalWeatherServicesprovidesthebestavailableinformationforanyuseroutsidehisowncountry.TheoutputoftheMeteoAlarmsystemispresentlyreusedbymorethan1000informationprovidersacrosstheglobe.Ase-condimportantuseremergedduringthelast3yearswiththeERCC(EmergencyRespondandCoordina-

Figure18Displayingmostlikelyandalternativetracksofastormsystem(Source:MetOffice).Areasimpactedcouldbeshownforeachscenario.Thistypeofinfor-mationismostusefulforsectors,whicharehighlysensitivetoimpactsandre-

quiredtoactevenifthelikelihoodisloworverylow.

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tionCentre)oftheEuropeanCommission,whousedtheMeteoAlarmsystemisprimaryinputforaEuro-peanoverviewandfundedseveralofadditionalfeatures.

Step2:IdentifyEventsandHazards

The identificationof all events impacting the territoryof the country, and theprimary, secondaryandtertiaryhazards(Table4)isrequired.Theprimaryhazardsarecauseddirectlybytheeventandcannotbemitigatedtoanysignificantextent(e.g.,rainwillfall).Thesecondaryhazardsarerelatedtotheprima-ryhazardandcanoftenbepartiallymitigated(e.g.,structuralworkscanreducethepossibilityofasur-facefloodinanurbanarea).Thetertiaryhazards,whicharegenerallynon-meteorologicalorhydrologi-cal,arecausedbytheprimaryandsecondaryphenomenaormaybeaconsequenceofhumanfailure.Thelatterhavethegreatestscopeformitigationbyeitherstructuralmeasurestoreducevulnerabilityorex-posureorboth.Anexampleofacascadehazardsandtheimpactisawarningofillness(riskofimpact),which could occur in the population vulnerable and exposed to an infectious disease (tertiary hazard)caused by contaminated floodwater (secondary hazard) resulting from a flood caused by monsoon(event) rains (primaryhazard).Basedon this information, sector-by-sectorhazardmatricescanbede-veloped(Figure19).Thedistinctionbetweenaneventandahazardisimportantbecauseasingleevent

may includemultiple hazards. Atropical cyclone is often mistak-enlyreferredtoasahazard; it isthehighwind,rainfall,floodsandstorm surge within the cyclonethat causes the damage. The in-tensityofthesehazardsishighlyvariable in time and space re-quiring precise location-specificforecasts. Theuse of the variousscales to estimate tropical cy-clone intensity is at best onlyindicative of the strength of thewinds, it does not say anythingabout the specific impact of themeteorological and hydrologicalhazards. This can bemisleading.Hurricane Sandy in the UnitedStates illustrates theproblem: inthis case, responders and com-munities lowered their guard

interpretingthemeteorologicaldowngradingofthestormfromahurricanetoanextratropicalcyclonebytheNationalWeatherServiceasaweakeningoftheintensityoftheoverallsystem.Infact,thewindsre-mainedstrongresultinginextensivedamagethatmighthavebeenavertedhadthecommunitiesandre-spondersremainedmorevigilant.

Figure19Exampleofahazardmatrixhierarchy.Thisillustratesthecascadingnatureofhazardswherethereisacausalrelationshipamongprimary,secondaryandtertiaryhazards.Thedistinctionbetweenatertiaryhazardandimpactissub-tle.Tertiaryhazardshavewiderangingsocialandeconomicimpacts.Forexample,weconsideradiseaseisatertiaryhazard–aresultingillnessisanimpactbecause

itisaconsequenceofexposureandvulnerabilitytothatdisease.

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Identifyingeachhazardwithauniquesymbolcanhelpestablishitsimportance.Table4showsthehaz-ardsidentifiedbystakeholdersinMyanmarduringaworkshopin2015.Table4MultiplehazardsresultingfrommeteorologicaleventsdefinedbystakeholdersataworkshopledbytheDepartmentof

MeteorologyandHydrology,Myanmar

Event Primaryhazards Secondaryhazards Tertiaryhazards

Cyclone • Strongwind• Lightning• Heavyrainfall• Tornado

• Riverflood• Surfacewaterflooding• Flashflood• Landslides• Stormsurge• Waterlevelriseinreservoirs• Riverbankerosion• Muddle

• DamageinDamsandappurtenantstructures,embankment,irrigationanddrainagefacilities,pumpingfacilities

• Submergingpaddyfields• Migration• Foodshortage• Lossofinfrastructuresystemsandservices(shelter,transportation,schools,

hospitals,energysupply,communication)• Waterbornediseases• Environmentaldegradation• Snakebite• Highsedimenttransportintoreservoirs

Monsoon • Strongwind• HeavyRainfall• Lightning• Monsoonbreak

• Riverflood• Coastalflood• Flashflood• Landslides• Lessrainfallamount

• DamageinDamsandappurtenantstructures,embankment,irrigationanddrainagefacilities,pumpingfacilities

• Submergingpaddyfields• Insectandpestproblems• Lossofinfrastructuresystemsandservices(shelter,transportation,schools,

hospitals,energysupply,communication)• Infectiousdiseases• Waterbornediseases• Highsedimenttransportintoreservoirs• Snakebite• Sandandsiltdeposition

Heatwave • Extremetempera-ture

• Heatrelatedcompli-cationsinlivestockandanimals

• Heatstroke• WidespreadFire• UrbanFire• BiologicalHazards• Stressonvegetation• Waterinsecurity

• Socio-economicimpacts• Hydropowershortage• Changesingroundwaterlevel• Waterbornediseases(eg.Conjunctivitis)• Foodshortage

Drought • Hightemperature• Heatwave• Lessrainfallamount

• Waterscarcity• Lowflow(lowriverflow)• Lesserinflow• Forestfireandsurfacefire• Damagetocrops

• Highevaporationlossinreservoirs• ShortageofstoragewaterinReservoirs• Insufficientdiversioninweirs• Saltaffectedsoil• FoodShortage• EnergyShortage• PumpingSystemDifficulties• Airpollution/haze• Smog/Dust• Sanddunes

Earthquake • Shake• Shifting Geological

Formation

• Landslides• Tsunami• Fire

• DamageinDamsandappurtenantstructures,embankment,irrigationanddrainagefacilities,PumpingFacilities,

• LossofInfrastructureSystemandServices(shelter,transportation,schools,hospitals,energysupply,communication)

• CoastalFlood• ChangesinGroundwaterformation• Psychologicalproblems

Step3AssessVulnerabilitiesRelatedtotheIdentifiedHazards

Varioustoolsexisttocarryoutvulnerabilityassessments.Theyshouldbeinfrastructuresystemandser-vice specific. For example, the vulnerability of bridges and roads to inundation or destruction due toflooding should be estimated. Understanding the interdependencies of the infrastructure systems andservicesisessential–forexample,thevulnerabilityoftransportationnetworkstofloodingandtothede-structionofbridges,roads,railshouldbeassessed(Rogersetal.2015).Agoodreference,amongmanyexamples, is thedatabasecreated for thePacificCatastropheRiskAssessmentandFinancing Initiative(PCRAFI) (World Bank 2012, 2013). GFDRR supports the development of risk assessments in severalways,includingconductingriskassessmentstudies,developingguidelinesforriskassessmentmethodol-ogies, supporting thedevelopmentanddistributionof spatial riskdatasetsand settingupplatformsasriskanalysisandcommunicationtoolsfordecision-makers.However, todate, thesedatahavebeenusedprimarily forplanningand infrastructure investment,buthavenotbeenusedroutinelytoimproveforecastsandwarnings.TheGFDRRInnovationLabcanprovideadditionalguidanceonthis.AusefulapproachistheOpenDataforResilienceInitiative(OpenDRI),whichprovides a guide to the collection of the appropriate disaster risk management data and the use ofInaSAFEtovisualizepotentialimpactsofhazardsonspecificinfrastructure.Initssimplestform,InaSAFEcanbeused to establishgeographical specific thresholds for impact-basedwarnings.Amoreadvancedformwouldusethevulnerabilitydatawithinatimedependentmodeltoforecasttheevolvingsituation,whichwouldhavethepotentialtotargetthegenerallylimitedcivilprotectionresourcestomaximumef-fect.GiventherequestbymanyNMHSstoaccessdigital forecastdata, thismodelapproachmaybethemostappropriate.However,atitssimplest,vulnerabilityinformationcanbebasedonexpertknowledge,whichcanbeusedtodevelopqualitativestatementsaboutimpacts.

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Step4DevelopImpactTables

Animpacttableneedstobedevelopedforeachhazardandforeachsector.Itrequiresknowledgeofthehazardandexpertknowledgeofthelikelyimpactonaspecificsector.Thismayormaynotbeinformedby a formal vulnerability assessment. At itsmost basic itwould rely on expert knowledge rather thanquantitativedata.Inthecaseoffloodrisk,thismayinvolvewaterresourcemanagers,irrigationexperts,damoperatorsaswellasdisastermanagers.AnexampledevelopedfortheUKbytheMetOfficeisshowninTable5.Inthiscasetheinformationisstillgeneral,butcanbemoregeographicallyspecificandtarget-edtospecificgroupsatrisk.

Table5Exampleofafloodimpactstableforthepublic(Source:MetOffice)

FloodImpactsTableforthepublic

VeryLow Low Medium High

• Generally,noimpactexpected• Isolatedandminorfloodingoflowlyinglandandroads

• Isolatedinstancesofspray/waveover-toppingoncoastaldefences

• Littleornodisruptiontotravelalthoughwetroadsurfacesorwaterloggingcouldleadtodifficultconditions

• Isolateddamagetovegetationduetowind

• Localizedfloodingoflandandroads• Localizedfloodingcouldaffectindividualproperties

• Individualpropertiesincoastallocationsaffectedbysprayand/orwaveovertop-ping

• Localizeddisruptiontokeyinfrastructureidentifiedinfloodplans(e.g.railandutilities)

• Localdisruptiontotravel• Localizeddamagetopropertiesduetowind

• Floodingaffectingpropertiesandpartsofcommunities

• Damagetobuildings/infrastructureispossible

• Possibledangertolifeduetofastflow-ing/deepwater/waveandstormsurgeovertopping/waveinundation,landslidesandwind

• Disruptiontokeyinfrastructureservicesidentifiedinfloodplans(e.g.rail,utilitiesandhospitals)

• Disruptiontotravelisexpected.Severalroadsarelikelytobeclosed

• Outbreaksofillnessescausedbywater-bornediseasespossible

• Isolatedfoodshortages• Localizedwatercontamination

• Widespreadfloodingaffectingsignificantnumbersofpropertiesandwholecom-munities

• Collapseofbuildings/infrastructureislikely

• Dangertolifeduetofastflowingwater/deepwater/wave,stormsurgeovertop-pingandwaveinundation,landslidesandwind

• Widespreaddisruptioncausedbylossofinfrastructureidentifiedinfloodplans

• Largescaleevacuationofpropertiesmayberequired

• Severedisruptiontotravel.Riskofmotoristsbecomingstranded.

• Largescaleevacuationofpeoplemayberequired

• Severedisruptiontotravel.• Outbreaksofillnessescausedbywater-bornediseasesexpected

Step5DevelopAdvisoryTables

Afinalcomponentof thewarningsystem is toprovideadviceonwhatactions to take.Thesemessageswillbetailoredtospecificneedsofeachstakeholder.Typically,thiswillinvolvedisastermanagementandotherkeystakeholders.ExamplesofalertsandwarningadvisoriesandactionsareshowninTable6.Table6AdvisoryTableforthepublic,whichrelateswarningsandactionstotheprobabilityofanimpactbasedonanimpactrisk

matrix.Thelevelsreflectthecolourcodingoftheriskmatrix(AdaptedfromMetOffice)

AdvisoryTable

Verylowrisk Lowrisk Mediumrisk Highrisk

1.ExampleoffloodriskforthepublicassociatedwithaTropicalCycloneevent

ALERT:UnlikelytheTropicalCyclone(Event)willaffectthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Keepaneyeontheweatherandfloodforecasts

ALERT:Likelythetropicalcyclonewillcausesomelimitedfloodingandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Remainalertandensureyouaccessthelatestweatherforecastforuptodateinformation.Preparetoacttoprotectlife,livelihoodandpropertyinthedesignat-edregion.

WARNING:Likelythetropicalcyclonewillcausewidespreadfloodingandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Securepropertyandlivelihoodassets.Bepreparedtoevacuate.

Beawareofthepotentialriskoflandslidesandflashfloodsinyourarea.

Followcivilprotectionorders.

Maintainradio/mediawatchforlatestupdates.

WARNING:Certaintropicalcyclonewillcausewidespreadfloodandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Evacuateiforderedtodosobycivilprotection

Bepreparedforextraordinarymeasurestoprotectlifeandproperty

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Anadvisorytableforaspecificsectorwouldincludemoredetailedinformation(Table7)Table7Advisorytablefordamoperations,whichrelateswarningsandactionstotheprobabilityofanimpactbasedonanimpact

riskmatrix.

AdvisoryTable

Verylowrisk Lowrisk Mediumrisk Highrisk

1.ExampleoffloodriskfordamoperationsassociatedwithaTropicalCycloneevent

ALERT:UnlikelytheTropicalCyclone(Event)willaffectthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Keepaneyeontheweatherandfloodforecasts

WARNING:Likelythetropicalcyclonewillcausesomelimitedfloodingandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Expectedinundationlevelsdonotrequireanyaction,butbewareofthepotentialfortherisktoincrease

WARNING:Likelythetropicalcyclonewillcausewidespreadfloodingandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Activatestandardoperatingproceduresassociatedwithanorangealerttomitigatetheriskofdamagetothedamandappurtenantstructuresandmitigatetheriskofexacerbatingfloodingdownstreamofthedam

SOPswillincludeallmeasurestowarningotherspotentiallyimpactedbythedamoperations

WARNING:Certaintropicalcyclonewillcausewidespreadfloodandwinddamageinthedesignatedregion

ACTION:Activatestandardoperatingproceduresassociatedwitharedalerttomitigatetheriskofdamagetothedamandappurtenantstructuresandmitigatetheriskofexacerbatingfloodingdownstreamofthedam.

SOPswillincludeallmeasurestowarningotherspotentiallyimpactedbythedamoperations

Effectivestandardoperatingproceduresareacriticalcomponentof thesuccessfulmanagementofrisk.Thisisdiscussedinmoredetailbelow.Keyelementsaregoodcommunicationamongtherelevantstake-holdersandtimelyaction.

KeyelementsofanImpact-basedForecastandwarningService

Partnerships

Asuccessful impact-based forecastingservicewill requirecloseoperationalcooperationwith theagen-ciesresponsible formeteorology,climatology,hydrology,disastermanagement,and first-respondersaswellasothersectorswithaccessto,andownershipof,dataoninfrastructuresystemsandservices(e.g.,energy, transportation, health, water resources). This would require a high-level agreement that de-scribesthecommitmentoftheagenciestoworkcloselytogethertosharedata,information,expertiseandresponsibility.Thesectorswithinformationontheirownvulnerabilitywillalsobetheonesthatwouldbenefitthemostfromimpact-basedforecastandwarningservices.Thereshouldbeflexibilitytoexpandthispartnershipasrequiredtoachievetheobjective.Thepartner-shipwouldbenefitfromtheinclusionofmedia,NGOsandothersresponsiblefordirectinteractionwithcommunities. The partnership may also include WMO regional centres and representatives of otherNMHSsand flood forecastingagencies.Thedetailsneed tobedevelopedduring initialdefinitionof thepartnershipwithinacountry.Giventheimportanceofreducingtheimpactofmeteorologicalandhydrologicalhazardsonsocieties,thepartnersmayexpecttohavehighvisibilitynationallyandinternationally.Thepartnerswillhaveaccesstotechnologiesandtrainingtoenablethemtocommunicatetheresultsoftheprojecteffectively.

JointDevelopmentofInformationandServices

Thepartnershipisaperquisiteforthejointdevelopmentofservices.Thiswouldincludeusing24/7op-erational forecasting capabilities of theNMHS, joint development of flood forecasting, and joint opera-tionscombiningtheexpertiseofmeteorologists,hydrologists,disastermanagers.Theimplementationofajointoperationscentreshouldbeconsidered.

DevelopingcapacityofNMHSs’anddisastermanagementstaff,partnersandusers

FrequenttrainingisessentialtoincreaseandmaintaintheskillsofanNMHS’sstaffindifferentareasoftheirwork.Such trainingshouldbeviewedasacontinuousprocess, inwhichall staffmembersare in-volvedinalong-termprogramtoimprovetheirskills.Aspartofthetwinningarrangements,studytoursand familiarizationvisits shouldbeorganized toexposeseniormanagementand forecasters tospecificadvancedtechnologiesthatcouldbeimplementedtoimproveforecastproductionanddelivery.Prioritiesfor technical trainingshould focusonmodern forecastingmethodsandapplicationof technologies thatarefitforpurposeforthelevelofcapacitiesthatexistinindividualNMHSs.Forexample,intheabsenceof

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radarwhichwouldallowmorereliableandaccurateforecastofrainfallduetoconvectiveactivities,othertechnologiesortechniquescouldbeemployedbythe forecasterstohelpthemwiththiskindofpredic-tion.However, in thecaseof impact-based forecastingandwarningservices, forecastingskillsalonearenotsufficient.Averyimportantpartofsuchtrainingshouldbeonrelationshipbuildinganddevelopingskillsincollaborationandcommunicationwithstafffromotherorganizations.FortheNMHS,thiscouldbeac-complished by designating staff aswarning advisorswith counterparts, sometimes referred to as leadresilienceadvisorslocatedinemergencymanagementoremergencyoperations.Building trust among all involved in impact-based forecasting is a key to ensure that all participatingagenciesand individualsrealize thecrucial role thateachplay towardsmaximizingpublicsafety in thefaceofsevereevents.Sharingofinformationanddataisaspecificaspectofsucharelationshipbuilding.Inthecaseofmanycountriesspecialauthorizationneedstobegrantedbyhigher levelsofgovernmentfordifferentorganizationstosharetheirdata.Incountrytrainingonimpact-basedforecastingtechniquesshouldbeconductedforallmembersoftheoperationalteam,whichwouldincludedesignatedstafffromtheNMHS and emergencymanagement. Ideally, DRM specialists and hydrological specialistswould betemporarily assigned toworkwithin the forecastofficeof theNMHS.These specialistswouldhave theresponsibilityforthedevelopmentoftheimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings,basedonthemeteorolog-icalandhydrologicalinformationprovidedbytheNMHS.Alternativeapproachesshouldalsobeexploredtodeterminetheoptimumarrangements.Theinitialtrainingwouldfocusonthequalitativetranslationofweatherforecaststoimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings.TwinningwithoneormoreadvancedNMHSs,whichhavealreadydevelopedimpact-basedforecastandwarningserviceswouldalsobedesirable.Thepairingarrangementwouldprovideoperationalbackupforthe forecasters, enabling them to receive guidance on complex weather situations, and with publicweatherservicedivisionstoassistinthetranslationofmeteorologicalandhydrologicalinformationintoimpact-based forecastsandwarnings.The twiningarrangementswouldalsoenable theNMHS to focusmoreattentiononimpactsandservicedeliveryandlessonthedetailsoftheproductionoftheweatherforecast.

Validation

Validationandverificationareimportantcomponentsofanyforecastingsystem.However,impact-basedforecastingandwarningsystemsneeddifferentmethodstothoseappliedtoobjectiveforecasts.Heretheemphasisisontheutilityoftheforecast,notjusttheaccuracyoftheunderlyingmeteorologicalorhydro-logicalprediction.Thisrequiresagreementamongstakeholdersandpartnersonwhatconstitutesutilityandcooperationtoanalyseandevaluateeventstoimprovethewarningsystem.

PublicWeatherServiceandStandardOperatingProceduresTheframeworkfortheprovisionofservicesisusuallyaseparatelydefinedgroupwithintheNMHS,whichisreferredtoasthePublicWeatherService(PWS)(WMO2012).Weatherforecastproductionisthepur-viewofforecasters.ThePWSfunctiontranslatesthoseforecastsintoactionableinformation.Inthecaseofimpact-basedforecaststhisisdonebycombiningtheweatherforecastwithvulnerabilityinformationstoredinadatabase.Thedatabaseplatformconsistsofhistoricalandreal-timedatasuppliedbyallagen-ciesandsectors.Thenumberofagenciesinvolvedislikelytobelarge.InthecaseofShanghai,forexam-ple,morethan17departmentssupportthisdatabase.IntheUK,morethan11agenciesprovidedataes-sentialtoproduceimpact-basedforecasts.Keycomponentsofeffectiveimpact-basedwarningservicesareStandardOperatingProcedures(SOPs),which codify the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders and actors in all possible scenarios. InShanghai,thereareatleast36joint-responsemechanismsamong25governmentdepartments.Anexam-pleofthepublicweatherservicesworkflowdevelopedbytheShanghaiMeteorologicalServiceisshowninFig.10(RogersandTsirkunov2013).Earlybriefing(seeFig.4)preparesthedepartmentstoactaheadofjoint-responsemechanismsandpriortoissuingpublicwarnings.Anotherimportantelement,highlightedbyRogersandTsirkunov(2013),istheinclusionofthewarningsystemwithinthepublicweatherserviceoperations.Thepersoninchargeofthepublicweatherserviceisresponsiblefordisseminatingroutineweatherinformationandimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings.Itshouldbenotedthat the finaldisseminationofwarningstothepublicmaybegovernedbythegovern-mentalstructuresandpracticewhichdeterminetheflowoftheinformation.Forexample,whileinsomecountriestheNMHSisresponsibleforandauthorizedtodisseminatethewarningsdirectlytopublic, in

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someothers,thewarningsaredisseminatedthroughthedisastermanagementorganizations.Whilethestructuresand legalmechanisms ineachcountryshouldberespected, themost importantpoint is thatprocedures shouldnot introducedelays andhinder thedisseminationofhighlyperishable information(e.g.,warningsofa flash floodexpectedto impactacityatrushhour),henceputtingthepublicandre-spondersinunnecessarydanger.

Figure20PublicWeatherServiceWorkflow(fromRogersandTsirkunov2013)

ThePracticeofImpact-basedForecastandRisk-basedWarningServicesinShanghai

TheCaseofUrbanFlooding

WangQiangdescribedtheevolutionofforecastingservicesinShanghai.Theimpetusforthefocusonim-pact-basedforecastingandwarningsisrelatedtotheneedtostrengthenurbanfloodforecasting.Thefol-lowinghighlightstheissue(Figure21).Heavy rainfall can lead to quite different impacts depending on the specific time and location of theevents.Inthefirstinstance(Figure21a),rainfallaccumulationsofup179mmandmaximumintensityof25.7mm/hresultedin1390floodrelatedcallstotheoperationscentre.Incontrast,anapparentlymoreintensesystemwithrainfallaccumulationsexceeding228mmandmaximumintensityof60.1mm/hre-sultedinon68emergencycallstotheoperationscentre(Figure21b).

Figure21ComparisonoftwoheavyrainfalleventsinShanghai:a)July16-17,2015&b)July2-3,2015(Source:WangQiang)

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ExposureandVulnerability

Figure22illustratesthreeapproachestoimpact-basedforecastingbasedonaccesstovulnerabilityandexposure data: 1) the ideal approachwhere impacts are quantitatively determined based on exposure

and vulnerability data; 2)impacts are determinedsubjectively;and3)impactsare determined by weatherconditions alone. With thecapacity to acquire exten-sivevulnerabilityandexpo-sure data, Shanghai has de-veloped an urban flood im-pact-basedforecastandriskbased warning systembased on quantitative eval-uationof exposureandvul-nerability.

Urban Flood impact-based

forecast and risk-based

warningsystem

The resulting forecast sys-tem flow chart is shown inFigure23. It is compriseda

rainfall forecast; flood evaluation; impact-based forecast and risk warning; and response. The rainfallforecastisbasedonacombinationofrainfallobservations,dataassimilationandquantitativeprecipita-tionforecasts,whichdriveahydrodynamicfloodmodel.Withaccesstodigitalelevations,dataonassets,etc.,riskthresholds,whichunderpinthewarningsystem,arecalculated.Theseoutputsfeedintotheme-teorologicalhazardmonitoringandriskwarningsystem,whichenablesdistributionofalertsandwarn-ingsviamobilephones,WeChat,publicterminals,outdoorscreens,etc.withstandardproceduresforaneffectiveresponsetothesituation.

Figure23Impact-basedforecastandrisk-basedwarningsserviceflowchartforurbanflooding

Figure22Urbanfloodimpact-basedforecastandrisk-basedwarningshouldbebasedonquantitativeevaluationofexposureandvulnerability(Source:WangQiang)

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The systemcombines rainfall forecastproducts, supportedbyhigh resolution regionalmodels (Figure

24)withdataonpotentialhigh risk points, such asroads and living quartersand important sites, suchasprimaryandsecondaryschools(Figure25).

Figure25Buildingdatasharingmechanismforlong-termdatasharingandregularupdating(source:WangXiang)

Figure24Rainfallforecastproducts:supportfromhighresolutionmodels(SourceWangQiang)

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Data from authoritativeand crowd sources arecombinedintheemergen-cy centre providing real-time monitoring of anemergency(Figure26).

Urban Flooding Assess-

mentModel

The Shanghai Urbanflooding assessmentmodel (SUM) simulatesrainfall runoff processeswithinthecityandcalcu-latessurfacewaterdepthand water distributionbased on digital eleva-tion,etc.(Figure27).

Verification

Verification of assessment resultsare carried out by 8 teams, whichconduct field surveys of disasterareas immediately after a hazard-ousevent(Figure28).

Figure26Buildingdatasharingmechanismforrealtimeinformation(sourceWangQiang)

Figure27UrbanFloodingAssessmentmodel(Source:WangQiang)

Figure28Verificationofassessmentresults(Source:WangQiang)

Figure29urbanfloodimpactlevelsandhazardthresholds(Source:WangQiang)

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Determining urban flooding im-

pact levels and relevant hazard

thresholds

Figure 29 illustrates the urbanflood impact levels and surfacewater area ratio and waterdepth used to determine thelevelofimpact.

WarningIcons

Animportantaspectofimpact-basedwarningsistheevolutionofsignalsfromwarningsbasedonmete-orologicalthresholdstowarningsbasedonimpacts(Figure30).Iconsareaveryusefulwaytoconveythelevelofrisk.

Figure30Comparisonofa)meteorologicalandb)impact-basedwarnings(Source:WangQiang)

a) Warningsbasedonfixedmeteorologicalthresh-olds

b) Urbanfloodingimpact-basedwarnings

Serviceinterfaces

SMS has developed severalnew service interfaces to com-municate differentiated warn-ing information to stakehold-ers. The community meteoro-logical risk warning servicesystem,whichisbasedona3-drealisation of the city, is usedby the Community Grid Man-agement Centre to managefloodrisks.Thesystemdisplaysthemeteorologicaldisasterriskanalysis, real-timemeteorolog-ical information and tailoredwarning information (Figure31).

Figure31UrbanfloodforecastingdisplaysintheCommunityGridManagementCentre(source:WangQiang)

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Newtoolsusing“smartmedia”arealsoavailabletothepublicthrough“Myweatherstation”app,whichprovideswarnings, real-timedata,5-day forecastsand typhoon track forecasts.Meteorological servicesarealsoembeddedinasmartTVinformationsystem(Figure32).SmartSongjianginformationplatformhascurrentlyabout300,000cableTVusers,broadbandusersandmobilephoneusers.

Figure32SmartSongjiangPlatform(Source:WangQiang)

InsummaryforShanghai,comparedwiththetraditionalweatherforecast,theimpact-basedforecastandrisk-basedwarningismorepracticalastheymeettheneedsofusers,whiletheyalsorequireclosecoop-erationwith users. In different areas andperiods of impact-based forecasting and risk-basedwarning,differentmethods shouldbe adopted to collect, estimate anduse exposure and vulnerability data. Theuncertaintyoftheweatherforecastandfloodingevaluationaffectstheaccuracyofimpact-basedforecastsandrisk-basedwarnings.Thus,ensemble forecastsandprobability forecastsshouldbeused.Newcom-munication techniquesand toolsareused topromote theunderstandinganduseof impact-based fore-castsandrisk-basedwarnings.

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ChinaNationalPerspectiveChan Xiao from the National Cli-mateCentre,CMAprovidedana-tionalperspectiveonmeteorolog-ical disaster and disaster riskmanagement. China is prone tofrequent disasters caused byme-teorological hazards – drought;heat waves; heavy rain; strongwinds;floods;typhoons;thunder-storms; and dust storms (Figure33).

China has experienced awarmingofthelandaveraging1.09°C between 1901 and2014(Figure34).

Figure33MainmeteorologicalhazardsimpactingChina(Source:ChanXiao)

Figure34AnnualmeantemperatureanomaliesinChinaduring1901-2014(relativeto

1971-2000)(Source:ChanXiao)

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Figure 35 shows the annuallossesinChinaduetometeoro-logically-related disasters. Theannual number of casualties isabout3600;thedirecteconom-ic losses are about 230 billionRMB, which corresponds to71% of the entire economiclossesfromnaturaldisasters.

Drought is one of the major causes ofdisasters facing theagricultural sector.Every year grain losses total between25 and 30 billion kg. Since 1961, thefrequency of droughts has increasedalong with the area affected (Figure36).

The frequency of heavy rain eventshas also increased since 1961 withfloods affecting 40% of the popula-tion, 35% of arable land and 50% ofindustrial and agricultural outputvalue(Figure37).

Figure35Lossesduetometeorologically-relateddisasters(Source:ChanXiao)

Figure36Droughteventsandareaexposedareincreasing(Source:ChanXiao)

Figure37Torrentialraindayshaveincreasedsignificantly(Source:ChanXiao)

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ColdwavesaregenerallydecreasinginChina;however,anomalouscoldperiodsinthesouthcausesignif-icantimpactstopeopleandtheeconomy.Incontrastheatwavesareincreasingwithprolongedperiodsabove35°C.Becauseoftheseincreasingthreats, thereisanewdemandfordisasterriskreduction.WhileChinacanpredictsevereweatherwithsufficientaccuracy,thereisaneedtodeterminetheimpactofsevereweath-er. This has led to the development of impact-based forecasting and risk-based warning systemsthroughoutChina.AkeyelementofChina’sefforttoreducetheimpactofdisastersisadherencetolaws,regulations and policies designed to enhancemeteorological disaster risk reduction; these include themeteorological lawof thePeople’sRepublicofChina, theFloodControlLawof thePeople’sRepublicofChina,theRegulationsonPreventionofandPreparednessforMeteorologicalDisasters,andtheDroughtControlRegulationofthePeople’sRepublicofChina.Overallmonitoring and forecasting systems have improved significantly.Warning information servicesarecontinuouslyexpandingandtheoverallreachthroughallmediaexceedsonebillionpeopledaily.Pro-gresshasbeenmadeinbuildingmulti-agencysynergyforthepreventionandpreparednessformeteoro-logicaldisastersandpublicawarenessofdisasterpreventionandemergencyself-rescuecapacityhasin-creased.

MeteorologicalOperationsatShanghaiMeteorologicalServiceTheworkshopparticipantsvisitedtheSMSoperationscentre.AlldescriptionoftheSMSoperationscanbefoundinPart2ofthisreport.Theintegratedplatformformeteorologicaloperationsconsistsofthreeareas: theweather forecast area, IT support and data services, and the publicweather service area. AschematicoftheweatherforecastareaisshowninFigure38.Theforecastareaisdividedintoninesub-sections.

Figure38SchematicoftheweatherforecastareaoftheShanghaiMetService

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TheoperationalorganizationandworkflowisshowninFigure39.

Figure39OperationalOrganization

ThecompletepresentationcanbefoundinPart2ofthisreport.

ParticipantCaseStudiesIn preparation for theworkshop, participantswere asked to describe how forecasts andwarnings areused in their countriesbydescribingameteorologicalorhydrologicalevent.Howwellwas it forecast?Howwerewarnings createdand communicated?Howdid thepublic andother sectors respond?Whatwastheimpactofthehazard?Whatdidyoulearnfromtheevent?Whatcouldbedonebetter?Theparticipantswereaskedtodescribetheeventfromtheperspectiveofaforecasterandfromtheper-spectiveofdisastermanagement/emergencyresponse.Howdidthehazardimpactthepublicandhowdidtheyrespond?Whatworkedandwhatdidn’t.Whilefewoftheparticipantsfollowedthetemplateclosely,theirpresentationsofferinsightintotheis-suesaffectingeachcountry.Briefsummariesoftheircasestudiesfollowandthefullcasestudiesarein-cludedinPart2onthisreport.

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Bangladesh(Aziz Mazharul, DepartmentofAgricultureExtension,Min-istryofAgriculture)AnoverviewofBangladesh isshowninFigure40.Thecoun-try is affected by multiplehazards including cyclonesand storm surges, thunder-storms, tornadoes and hail-storms, floods, droughts,heavy rain and landslides,heat waves, cold waves anddense fog, and earthquakesandtsunamis.Given the frequencyof the impactof tropi-cal cyclones and storm surges, early warn-ing allows the population to take effectivemeasures and evacuate and shelter (Figure41).

The Storm Warning Centre (SWC) istheprincipalmeansbywhichwarningsrelated to typhoons are issued (Figure42). However, unlike Shanghai, whichhasasinglewarningcentreforallhaz-ardwarnings; theSWC isonly respon-siblefortropicalcyclones.

Figure40BriefoverviewofBangladesh

Figure41EmergencywarningandevacuationIBangladesh

Figure42WarningDisseminationmechanisms

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Typhoonwarningsaredisseminatedby theCyclonePreparednessProgramme(CPP),which isavolun-teerorganizingcomprising42,675members recruited fromwithin local communities (Figure43).Thissystemisveryeffective.Similartranslationanddisseminationmechanismsareneededforotherhazardsandsectors;e.g.,farmingcommunity.

Figure43DisseminationoftyphoonwarningsbyCPP

Thefollowingareidentifiedasneeds:

• Thereisaneedtodevelopbetterdecisionsupportservicesandbuildcapacitytotranslatefore-castssothattheycanbereadilyusedfromweb-basedplatforms.

• InnovationintheuseofICTtoolsandtechniquesisneededtocollect,analyseandtranslatedisas-ter-relatedinformation;i.e.,simplifymulti-hazarddatacollectionanddevelopeffectivefeedbackmechanisms.

• Developmulti-timescalelongerrangehazardinformationandtranslatetheseproductsfordiffer-entsectors.

• Buildonandscaleupexistingadvisorysystem• Make use of Union Information Service Centres (UISCs) for early warning dissemination and

communicationatthelocallevel• PushandpullSMSserviceshouldbeintroducedforhazardearlywarningmessages• Communityradiosshouldbeusedasanotherchannelfordisseminationanddistancelearning• SubscriptionservicescouldbeintroducedforemailsandmobileSMS

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Chile(Natalia Silva Bustos & FelipeRiquelmeVasquez,NationalEmer-gency Office of Ministry of InteriorandPublicSecurity(ONEMI),Chile)AgeneraloverviewofChileisshownin Figure 44. Chile is impacted byvolcanic eruptions, forest fires,storms surges and tsunamis, earth-quakes, floods and droughts. Therearemorethan500activevolcanoes,90 of these are high risk. There aremore than 200 seismic events perday. 46% of Earth’s seismic energyreleased during the 20th CenturyfocusedonChile.ONEMIisthestate’stechnicalorgan-ization,which leads the national civil protection system and coordinates the actions of public, private.Scientific-technical, NGOs, civil society, UN system, among others related to disaster riskmanagement.Thestructureandflowofinformationfromtechnicalagenciestotheearlywarningcentresandemergen-cyoperationscommitteesisshowninFigure45.A case study of rainfall,floods, mudflows and land-slides on March 25, 2015illustratesthestrengthsandweaknessof thesystem.Anextreme hydrometeorologi-cal event – unseasonalheavy rains due to a coldfront – occurred in thenorth of Chile. The eventcaused mudflows and flashfloods. 27,413 people wereaffected,5,585were soughtshelter, 31 people died duethe mudflows and 16 re-main officially missing.28,000homeswereaffectedincluding2,071destroyedand6,253severelydamaged.Therewereimpactsonhealth,mining,connectiv-ity,criticalinfrastructure,etc.Wastematerialsfromminingcontributedtoapublichealthcrisis.Themeteorological situationwaswell forecastat least4days inadvance,andboth theauthoritiesandpublicwerealerted.Thenormalrainfallis4-5mmperyear.Atitsmostintense,8.2mmofrainfellin15minutes.Thiswastheworstraininthepast80years.In3hours,rainfallexceededthe30-yearaverage.Thereareseveralfactorsthatcontributedthisemergencybecomingadisaster:

• Lowspatialdistributionofmeteorologicalstations• Hydrologicalandmeteorologicalmodelsarenotcoupled• Lackofsimilarhistoricalcases• Noexperienceinthiskindofhazard• Lackofscientificandtechnicalknowledgeaboutthisphenomenon• Inadequatecapacitytotranslaterainfallintolandslidesormudflows• Impactinformationisdisaggregatedindifferentsectors• Lackofevacuationplansandestablishedsafetyzones

Inresponse,Chileis:

Figure44BriefOverviewofChile

Figure45MonitoringandWarningSystem

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• Investing in aproject to integratedifferenthydrological andmeteorological stations throughapublic-privatepartnership

• Supportingdrillsaboutlandslidesinhighriskareas• Workingwith different technical organizations and researchers to develop amulti-hazard ap-

proachtowarningsandresponse.• Strengtheningthenationalgovernancetocreatethecapabilitiestoassessriskanddeterminepo-

tentialimpacts.

DemocraticRepublicofCongo(Donatien Barthelemy Kamunga Musungayi,MettelSat; Jean K’Onganga Kitambala, Protec-tion Civile;PlacideMunsaiMasena, Hydrogra-phieetBalisage)The institutional landscapeof agencies involvedin Hydromet information services is shown inFigure45.A case studyof extreme lowwater levels in theCongo River in 2011 highlights some of the is-suesfacingDRC.Fromahydrologicalviewpoint,the lowwater levels in the CongoRiver experi-enced in June and July 2011 were not forecastwiththesharpdropinwaterlevelssurprisingalltechnicians and users. Meteorological observa-tions revealedbelownormal rainfallbefore thedry season.MettelSathadaccess to theseobservationsfromDRCandZambia,buttheydidnotsharethisinformationwiththerivernavigationauthority(RVF).Nowarningswereissued.OnthecollaborationbetweentheRVFandMettelSat,dataexchangeshouldbemoresystematicandbasedonbetterdatamanagementtools.Onthewarningdevelopmentprocess,thelowrunoffobservedsinceMaycouldhavebeenbetterinterpolated.Figure46showsthatthelowwaterlevelswereclosetotheminimumfortheriver.

Figure46Descriptionofeventintermsofmonthlywaterlevels

TheimpactoftheeventisshownFigure47.Afteronlargeshipwaswreckedandmanyhadrunaground,ship owners reduced their loads to navigate in lowerwater levelswithin the 400 kmof the navigablereach.TheRVFupdatedsignageintherivertoimprovenavigationsafety.TheElectricitycompany(SNEL)dredgedthechanneltoensurecontinuityofhydro-electricitygeneration,andthedrinkingwatersupplyauthorities (REGIDESO)moved its pumping infrastructure. The overall impactwas reducedwater andelectricityconsumptionbythepublic;andreducedriver transport,hydropowergenerationanddrivingwaterproduction.

Figure45Institutionallandscape

42

The event confirmed the needfor:

• Capacity building forstaff in forecasting andpredictivemodelling

• Automatic observationand communication ofrainfall and hydrologi-calobservations

• Updated rating curves,whicharepresentlyon-lyavailableinKinshasa

• Improved collaborationbetween meteo, hydro,transportation, energyandcivilprotection

Fromtheperspectiveofemergencyresponse,thefollowinghighlightssomeoftheissuesandsolutions:

• Noforecastswerereceived.Civilprotectionwas invitedtoaworkshopto improvestakeholdercoordinationinthemanagementoftheemergency

• Civilprotectionhadtheresponsibilitytocommunicatewarnings,butnoforecast,alertorwarn-ingwasreceivedfromthetechnicalagencies.Civilprotectionisresponsibleforfollowinguponthestakeholderworkshoprecommendations

• Civilprotectionhascommunicatedtherecommendationsfromtheworkshoptodecision-makersandensurefollow-upontheirimplementation

• Life jackets are nowmandatory on all ships. Civil protection has improved collaborationwithforecasterstoanticipateimpactsfromhydrometeorologicaleventsandactearly

AprojecttostrengthenthecapacityoftheHydrometandearlywarningservicesisunderway.PrioritiesforstrengtheningearlywarningareshowninFigure48

Figure48Prioritiesforstrengtheningearlywarning

Figure47Impactofthelowriverlevels

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Ghana(MiawuliLumor,WaterResources Commission;GaviviniaYaoTamakloe, NationalDisasterManage-mentOrganization;SylvesterDarko, Hydrological ServicesDepartment; JamesBarroneDusu, GhanaMeteorologicalAgency)Ghanaisvulnerabletofloodingandfollowingmajorfloodsin2007and2010hasembarkedonstrength-eningfloodmanagement(Figure49).Disaster risk managementinvolves the key agencies:Ghana Meteorological Agen-cy(GMet)formeteorologicalforecastsandwarnings;Wa-ter Resources Commission(WRC) for transboundarybasin management and thecoordinating agency on wa-ter resources related issues;Hydrological Services De-partment (HSD) for hydro-logicalmonitoringand floodearly warning system; andthe National Disaster Man-agement Office (NADMO),which is responsible for themanagement of disastersand related emergencies.NAMDO depends on GMetandHSDtoobtainearlywarningsoffloodsanddrought.Itiscoordinatesactivitiesofallactorsindisastermanagementandisresponsibleforemergencyoperationsandengagingthecommunityinimprovingre-silience.A flood forecasting system is in development,whichwill provide flood earlywarning and assessment(Figure50).

Figure50Floodforecastandwarningsystem

AnexampleofthefloodearlywarningsystemforWhiteVoltaisshowninFigure51.

Figure49OverviewofGhana

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Figure51FloodearlywarningsystemWhiteVolta

Thisisenablingthevalidationandincorporationoffloodriskmapsinplanningandfloodmanagement,whichissharedwithcommunitiestoencouragealternativelanduseinhighriskareasFigure52).

Figure52Floodriskmapforselecteddistrictsandalternativelanduseoptionsforfloodpronedistricts

Someoftheachievementsince2011include:• Increasedcapacityofthenationalhydro-meteorologicalservices:

o WaterInformationSystemestablishedandoperational;o HSDsystematicallycollects,storesandcalibrateshydrologicalinformation;o Real-timetele-transmissionof8gaugingstationso 20Ghanaiansweretrainedinfloodhazardassessmentandforecasting.

• InformeddecisionmakingforeffectivefloodpreventioninNorthernGhana:

o ThegenesisofthefloodsinNorthernGhanaisunderstood;o Effectivenessoffloodpreventionmeasuresisassessed;o FloodhazardmapsfortheWhiteVoltaandtributariesareavailable.

• StrengthenedemergencypreparednessinNorthernGhana:

o Floodforecastingsystemwith3-dayleadtimefortheWhiteVoltaisoperational;o Floodpropagationtimeandhazardmapsareavailableforpreparednessplanning.

• Fosteredinstitutionalcollaborationonfloodmanagement:

o Agreementoninstitutionalresponsibilityforforecastingarereached;Remainingchallengesinclude:

45

• CouplingtheFEWSmodelwithclimatedatafromGMet• Building“lastmileconnections”

o Ensuringthatinformationeffectivelyreachesfloodaffectedcommunitieso Supportingdistrictassembliesmainstreaminginformationindistrictplanning

• Sustainingthecapacityofnationalagenciesforfloodforecastingo Continuingtrainingofhydrologistsandmeteorologistsinforecastingo Repairing,maintaining, operatingandupgrading criticalhydro-met stations in theWhiteVolta

Basin• Increasingaccuracyoffloodforecasting• Fosteringeffectivecollaborationamongnationalagenciesinfloodforecasting• UnderstandingthesocialandeconomicimpactsoffloodingintheWhiteVoltaBasin• Extendingfloodforecastingtoallpartsofthecountry• Increasingthenumberofemergencyoperationscentresat the localauthority level–mostdistricts

arenotcovered• Targetaudiencestilldonotunderstandtheirresponsibilitiesindisastermanagementchain• Volunteerismisverylow

LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepublic(Outhone Phetluangsy, Depart-ment of Meteorology and Hydrolo-gy)AnoverviewofLaoPDRisshowninFigure 53. Lao PDR has a tropicalmonsoonclimatewithawet seasonandadryseason.Thedryseason isfrom mid-October to mid-May,whichistheperiodoftheNortheastmonsoon. The wet season is frommid-May to mid-October, which isthe period of the Southwest mon-soonand isassociatedwith tropicalcyclonesovertheNorthwestPacific.85-95% of floods occur betweenJuneandOctober.Floods, flash floods, landslides,earthquakes and drought aremajorhazards. Theministry ofWater Re-sources and Environment Admin-istrationisresponsiblefortheoper-

ation of hydro-meteorological fore-cast dissemination. Daily forecastsare issued through radio, television,newspaper, provincial offices ofDMH, the National Disaster Man-agement Office and line agencies(Figure 54). Allwarnings are basedon meteorological and hydrologicalthresholds with tropical stormwarnings focusedon the locationofthesystemrelativetoLaoPDR.Challengesincludetheneedto:• Focus more attention on inun-dation through heavy rainfall floodforecastingandwarning• Increase the frequency of fore-casts and warnings through mass

Figure53OverviewofLaoPDR

Figure54Forecastandwarningdissemination

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mediatothepublicanddirectlytoconcernedend-users• Enhanceawarenessandpreparationofpeopleandhaveaplantorespondbeforeaflood• Improveforecastverification.

Mali(MoussaToure,Mali-Meteo;CheickFantaMadyKone,ProtectionCivile)Mali is frequentlyaffectedbyfloods(Figure55).Inthecaseof flooding in Bamako on 28August 2013, intense precipi-tationwas forecast8haheadoftheimpact.Radiomessageswere issued; however, no in-formation on amount of pre-cipitation or its impact wasprovided. Partly because ofthis, no actions were takenahead of the event. 2000householdswere flooded andtemporarily evacuated, 240housescollapses,and56peo-ple died. Most of the casual-tieswerecausedbyelectrocutionorinthecaseofchildren,drowning.Fromtheperspectiveofthecivilprotectiondirectorate,therewasalackofunderstandingoftheimpacts.Itistheresponsibilityofcivilprotectiontocovertforecastsintowarnings,todisseminatethewarnings,anticipateandreducedamage,managetheresponse,learnlessonsfromtheevent,andenhanceprepar-ednessforfutureevents.Assoonasthefloodoccurred,civilprotectionstrengthenedtheresponseteamswithvolunteers,evacuatedhousehold,andcoordinatedhumanitarianassistance.Thefollowingneedswereidentified:• forecastprecipitationamountsandanticipateimpactsperhistoricalevents(deterministicbasedup-

onreturnperiod)andmodelling(probabilistic);• triggeremergencyplansbeforetheimpactstomobilizemorestaffandvolunteersandreducedam-

ages;• enhancedissemination(radio)inlocallanguages

• develop warning andactivate response plansthrough joint process withmet service,civilprotectionandmunici-palities• enhance awareness-raising activities and simu-lations to ensure betterpreparednessSomeofthelimitingfactorsin early warning are sum-marizedinFigure56.

Figure55OverviewoffloodinginMali

Figure56Earlywarninglimitingfactors

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SomeoftheplannedimprovementsaresummarizedinFigure57.Figure57Futureimprovements

Myanmar(WinMaw,DMH;TinMarHtay,DMH;and Su Sandar Win, Relief and Reset-tlementDepartment)Figure 58 summarizes some of thema-jor hazards affecting Myanmar. Theseinclude cyclones, heavy rainfall, stormsurgeextremetemperature,scantyrain-fall, river flood, flash flood and coastalflood. Recent extremes include 47.2 °CinMyinmuin2010;29.10inchesofrain-fall in 12 hours in Taungkok in 2011resulting in flooding,and8.03 inchesofrainfallinChinStatein2015resultinginlandslides.The Department of Meteorology andHydrologyisresponsibleforforecastingandwarningandcommunicationofme-teorologicalandhydrologicalhazardstoagenciesresponsibleforactiontotheMinistryofSocialWelfare,ReliefandResettlement(MSWRR),RedCross,MinistryofInteriorandGeneralAdministrationDepartment(GAD).TheDepartmentofReliefandResettlementisresponsibleforemergencyoperations(Figure59).

Figure58HazardsinMyanmar

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KeyactivitiesoftheEmergencyOpera-tionsCentreare• Innormalconditions:

• Investigating and monitoringtheweathercondition

• Informationsharingtorelatedgovernment organizations and NGO,INGO organizations (such as, MRCS,WFP,UNOCHA,etc.)

• Implementing for disasterpreparedness, information manage-ment and coordination for disasterriskreduction.

• Inanemergency:• Supporting for emergency

management,responseandlogisticsthroughinformationsharingonnetworkandquickdecisionmaking.

• Providingthecomprehensivesolutiontothedecisionmakersbycollectingnecessarydataandin-formationforeffectiveresponse.

• Cooperationwithrelatedorganizationsformakingplanstogiveassistancetheneedsofdisasteraffectedpeopleindisasteraffectedarea.

TheDMHandEmergencyOperationsCentreshareresponsibility forcoordinationanddecision-making.Thereisgoodcommunicationwithformaldatasharingarrangements.AtpresentDMHdoesnotdevelopimpact-basedforecastsandwarning,onlywarningsbasedonmeteorologicalandhydrologicalthresholdsare issued.Vulnerabilityandexposuredataarecollectedbyseveralgovernmentagencies/departmentsincludingMSWRR,GAD,MinistryofAgricultureandIrrigation,MyanmarInformationManagementUnit,MinistryofHomeAffairs,andMinistryofCommerce.Thestrengthsandweaknessesinclude:• Strengths

o Strongwillofstaffo Relativelyhighacademicbackgroundo Staffs’passionandwillingnesstoimproveDMHo Consecutivebudgetincreases

• Weaknesseso Outdatedinfrastructureo Shortageofbudgeto Shortageofmanpowero Insufficientoverallfacilities

Figure59StructureofEmergencyofOperations

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NepalThelocation,topographyandriversystemsofNepalareshowninFigure60.The Department of Hydrol-ogyandMeteorology(DHM)is responsible for all hydro-logical and meteorologicalactivities and services inNepal. The hydrology divi-sion has sections for theriver network; flood fore-casting; data; snow, waterquality and environment;and technical. A major ob-jectiveofDHMisfloodfore-casting and early warning.Hazard-related losses for1990-2015 are shown inFigure61.

Figure61hazardrelatedlosses1990-2015

A significant investment is un-derway to modernization DHM.A schematic of the flood fore-casting and warning system isshowninFigure62

Figure60Location,topographyandriversystems

Figure62Flooddiagnosticsandforecasting(warning)

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Pacific–Fiji,SamoaandTonga(LiteaBiukotoandCyprienBosserelle,PacificCommunity;TitimanuSimi,MNRE-DMO,Samoa;Lame-koAsora,MNRE-WRD, Samoa;LuteruAgaaliiTauvele, SamoaMet Service;MoleniTu’uholoaki andLaitiaFifita,TongaMeteorologicalServices)ThelocationsofFiji,SamoaandTongaareshowninFigure63.TheseislandsarefrequentlyimpactedbyTropical Cyclones, which cause strong winds, storm surges, and flooding. They are also vulnerable toearthquakesandtsunamis.

Figure63IslandsofFiji,SamoaandTonga

Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Ian, whichstruck Tonga on January 11,2014 illustrates challenges.TC Ian was well forecast andcontinuous briefings weregiven to Tonga’s NationalEmergency Management Of-fice and operations centre.The Prime Minister’s officewas informed that TC Ianwouldrapidly intensified intoacategory5system;astateofemergency declared at 8 amon January 11. TC Ian’s eyepassed over the Ha’apai Is-lands at 1430 local time.Communication with Ha’apaiwas lost at 1300 local time.The cyclone caused extensivedamage(Figure64)

Figure64ImpactofTropicalCycloneIanonHa’apai

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Someofthelessonslearnedandchallengesinclude:• TimelyDeliveryofWarnings to thepeopleofwhatwouldhappen justbefore,duringandaftereye

past(TCIan).• Somepeoplejustevacuatedduringorneartheheightofthestorm

o Understandingforecast?• Technicalwordingsofforecastandwarnings

o difficulttounderstand?• NDMOgivingfreecreditstopublictohelpthemwithreportingdirectlyforemergencyresponses

o Misuseoffunds• LocalshippingAgenciescontinuingoperationsgivenwarningsareINFORCE • LackofeffectiveinformationonDisasterimpacts

o Historicalreference/recordsofpastimpactsofcertainHazards• Poorcommunicationcoverageforwarnings

o Needsautomaticdisseminationsystems • Lackofobservationnetworkswithinourareaofresponsibilityandintheocean• Lackofoperationalresourcestoimplementimpact-basedforecastandwarningsservices

o Humancapacitydevelopmento Equipment

• Implementingpreparedness&AwarenessStrategies

Samoa

ThecountryprofileofSamoaisshowninFigure65.Samoaishighlyvulnerabletotropicalcyclonesandtsunamis.Itislocated160kmnorthoftheearthquakegeneratingTonganTrenchandattheheartoftheSouthPacificcyclonebelt.ThreecyclonesandoneTsunamiresultedinlossesofnearlyUS$1billion

Figure65CountryProfileofSamoa

Samoa’searlywarningsystemisshowninFigure66.Therearestandardoperatingproceduresinthecaseofacategory3-5tropicalcyclone:Step01: ContinueDiscussionwithNeighbourNationalWeatherServicesStep02: IssuedSWBevery3hours

52

Step03: Director Met/Acting Director Met brief CEO every 3 hours after every issue

Step04: CEO/ActingCEOMNREbriefNDCStep05: DirectorMet/ActingDirectorMetbriefDMOevery3hoursaftereveryissueStep06: Director/ActingDirectorMetfollow-upMediainterviewevery6hours

Figure66SamoaEarlyWarningSystem

ThecaseofTropicalCycloneTuni,whichwasaCategory1eventinNovember2015isshowninFigure67.ThefirstSpecialWeatherBulletinwasissuedat262100UTCor11amSLTonFriday27followingtheactivationof the STCWCon262000UTCor10 amSLT the sameday, 33hoursbefore the systemwasnamed by theRSMCNadi. Thiswas done due to the threat that the developingDepression has a highchancetodevelopintoaTropicalCyclonewhilemovingsoutheasterlypassingthesouthoftheSamoanislands.

Figure67TropicalCycloneTuniCat1,November2015

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Atotalof10SWBsincludingaCancellationbulletin(SWB10)wereissuedevery6hoursforthisevent.Thebulletinincludesthewarningsandadvisoriesforthepotentialhazardsassociatedwiththestorm,thelatestpositionofthestormanditsexpectedlocationinthenext6-12hours,theexpectedeffectsandthepotentialimpacts.Apartfrompreparingandsendingthewarnings,theWeatherandForecastingsectionwasalsoresponsi-bleforbriefingthelocalandinternationalmediaaswellastheDisasterAdvisoryCouncilandallrelevantagencies.Continuousdiscussionswiththeregionalpartners includingtheFijiMeteorologicalServicesandNeigh-bouringMeteorologicalServices.Someofthechallengesare:� LackofawarenessofavailableInformationProvidersandavailabledata� Lackofcapacitytoutilizeandapplydatainaneffectiveandefficientway� Lackof resources (radars)andexpertise toguideand implement theuseandapplicationof space-

basedtechnologies� LackofinformationdisseminationSomeactionsSamoaexpectstotakeinclude:� Increaseawarenessofinformationprovidersanddataavailable� Buildlocalcapacitytoenabletheeffectiveandefficientutilizationofavailableservicesanddata� Promoteandencouragecollaborationandcommunicationamongstregionalmembercountriesand

organizations� Toseekfundingandtrainingopportunitiestoincreasetheself-sufficiencyof localprogrammesand

officials� Encourage and increase information dissemination to relevant actors and the public to improve

DisasterManagementacrosstheboard� Developmentofmoreuserfriendlywaysofinformationdissemination(mobileapps)Effortsarealsounderwaytoimproveforecastsofcoastalinundation.Sincereal-timerun-upmodelsareveryslow,thepreferredapproachistocreateadatabaseof500,000probablescenariosandselect500representativecasefromwhichanensembleforecastcanbemade(Figure68).

Figure68Met-modelsforoperationalprobabilisticinundationsimulations

54

SriLanka(KehelellaSarathPremalal,DepartmentofMeteorology;SulaimaLebbeMohamedAliyar, IrrigationDepartment)Sri Lanka is an island in thetropics with two major sea-sonal monsoonal regimes –Southwest from May to Sep-tember and Northeast fromDecember toFebruary. In ad-dition, there are two inter-monsoonseasonsnamelyfirstinter-monsoon (March-April)and second inter-monsoon(October–November).The monthly and averagerainfall and some of the im-portant impacts are shownschematicallyinFigure69.Estimates of cyclone relateddamagein2000and2003areshowninFigure70.Figure70Estimatesofcyclonerelateddamagein2000and2003

ThecaseofCycloneRoanu,whichdevelopedintheBayofBengal,14-20May2016,highlightssomeoftheproblemsfacingSriLanka.Thecycloneoriginatedasalow-pressureareatothesouth-eastofSriLankaon14May.ItslowlymovednorthwestveryclosetheeastcoastofSriLankabecomingadepressionon17May and a Cyclonic Storm on 19May. The forecasts underestimated the rainfall andwere not preciseabout the locationof theheaviest rains. The forecastswere alsonot customized andwerenot impact-based.Theforecastfor15Mayandtheactualrainfallfor15-18MayareshowninFigure71.

Figure69Monthlyandaverage(1961-1990)rainfallinSriLanka

55

Figure71Forecastfor15Mayandactualrainfall.

Theimpactsincluded:• Situationwastheworstfloodsinlast25years• AccordingDisasterManagementCentre,301,602peoplehavebeenaffectedbythe floodsand land-

slidesandestimated21,484peopledisplaced.104peopleareknowntohavediedand99peoplearemissing.

• Estimated 623 houseshave been destroyed and 4,414havebeendamaged• 25,000 to 30,000 busi-nesseshavebeenimpactedbythedisaster• 171 schools in NorthWestern, Sabaragamuwa andWestern provinces were dam-aged• It is estimated that70,000 of school going childrenareaffectedbythedisasterIn Kegalle district, a landslidecaused extensive loss of life and

property(Figure72)The means of communicating warnings areshowninFigure73.SomeofthelessonlearnedfollowingtheMay2016disasterinclude:• Warningswerenot receivedby thepeo-

pleaffected.• Leadtimewasnotsufficienteventhough

warningsreceived.• No proper assessment on what is hap-

peningoutsidetheriver.

Figure72landslideinAranayake,KegalleDistrict

Figure73MethodofCommunicatingWarnings

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• Floodhazardmaps,inundationdatawerenotsharedandthepublicwasunwareoftheirvulnerability• Misinterpretationofwarningmessages• Lackofcustomizationoftheforecast• Noimpactforecast

o Forecasterslackknowledgeaboutimpactsfrommeteorologicalandhydrologicalhazardso Lackofknowledgeofriverfloods

• PeopleintheColomboCityhadlittleexperienceofflashfloods• Theincreasedvulnerabilityofthepopulationduetomajorlandusechangeswerenottakenintocon-

siderationBasedonthesefindings,thereisaneedto• StrengthenDoMcapacityinQPE• Closestakeholdercoordination• BettercommunicationandcustomizationofForecastandwarning• Regulardiscussion/Awarenesscreation• ChangethepresentlanguageofweatherForecast(understandableLanguage)• EstablishavideoconferencingsystemamongDoM,DMC,NBRO,DOIandmediaThefollowingactivitiesareplanned:• Improvetheaccuracyofforecasts• Timelydissemination• Regulardiscussionswithstakeholders• Advancetheleastimeofforecastsandwarnings• Improvethemethodofdisseminationandcontentsofmeteorologicalandhydrologicalinformation• Impact-basedwarningsFigure74showshowimpact-basedforecastingmaybeimproved.

Figure74Futureaimforimpact-basedwarnings

57

AnexampleofimprovedforecastsfortheMay2016eventisshowninFigure75.Figure75modelsimulationofextremerainfallsituationwithWRFDA(NCEP)

Impact-BasedForecastingExercises

Exercise1Thepurposeofthisexerciseistolookatwarningsfromtheperspectiveoftwogroups:Forecasters(me-teorologistsandhydrologists)anddisastermanagers.Eachgroupisaskedthefollowingquestions:• Whoaretheaudienceforweatherandhydrologicalwarnings?• Whatdotheyneedtoknow?• Whendotheyneedtoknow?• Howshouldwetellthem?Theunderlyingbenefitistogettheparticipantstalkingtoeachotherandsharingtheirownexperiences.

Exercise2Developingimpacttables(Table4above).Thepurposeofthisexerciseistoshowhowusefulvulnerabil-ityinformationcanbecreatedfromexpertknowledge.Heretheparticipationofdisastermanagersisveryusefulbecausetheyareoftenmoreknowledgeableaboutimpactsofspecifichazardsbasedonemergencyresponse.Inoperationalpracticeinputfrommanydifferentstakeholdersisneededandthiscanleadtoamorecomplextablebasedonimpactstailoredtospecificsectors(Seeannex3).

Exercise3Thisexerciseintroducestheideaoftheimpactmatrix.AdetailedexplanationaccompaniesFigure15.

Exercise4Eachoftheforecastersisgivenaweatherand/orhydrologicalsituation,whichtheymustforecast.Inthefirstpartoftheexercise,theywillprovidethemeteorologicaland/orhydrologicalguidance.Inthesecondpartoftheexercise,theforecasterswillworkwithemergencymanagerstodevelopimpacttablesforthespecifichazardandapplicablesectors.Basedonthelikelihoodoftheeventandotherfactors,suchastimeoftime,existingconditions,etc.,theteam(forecastersandemergencymanagers)willselectaboxinthematrixandissueawarningaccordingthecolouroftheboxandlikelyimpact(Figure76andAnnex4)

58

The purpose of this exercise iswork through the translation of aweather or hydrological forecastintoan impact forecast andassigna warning level. The exercise canbe adapted to a specific event,which evolveswith time or to dif-ferent geographical areas, whichmay have different levels of alertorwarning.Thebasicsimplicityoftheprocessis emphasized to encourage easyadoptioninoperationalservices.

ConclusionsThe ability to understand and re-spond effectively to warnings iscentraltoaresilientpopulation.Byavoiding physical harm, recoveryfromahazardis likelytobefasterand more complete (Rogers et al.2016). Impact-based forecast andwarning services complement thetraditional role of meteorologicaland hydrological forecasting ser-vices by translating technicalknowledge into information of di-rect relevance to those affected.Advances in our understanding oftheatmosphere-ocean-landsystemcoupledwith advances in numeri-

calpredictionandobservationof thissystemmeansthatwecanmaketimelyandaccurate forecastsofhazards.Theuseofensemblepredictiontechniquesgivesusinsightintothelikelihoodofahazardandwecanusethisknowledge,coupledwithinformationaboutwhatandwhoislikelytobeaffected,toprovidemoreactionablewarnings.TheexperienceofthoseWMOMembers,whichhavedevelopedandusedthesetechniques,isinvaluablein helping others. Further guidance is available through WMO programmes and together, WMO andWorldBank/GFDRRareworkingtoensurethattheeffortstomodernizationNMHSscanstrengthentheircapabilitiestodelivermorerelevantforecastandwarningservices.Inarelativelyshorttrainingcourse,itisdifficulttogetacrossalltheconceptsthatwillenabletheopera-tionalimplementationofimpact-basedforecastsandwarnings.Feedbackfromtheparticipantshighlighttheimportanceofthetopicandtheneedtolearnmoreabouthowtoimplementitwithinthespecificcon-straintsofacountry(SeeAnnex5).Sharingtheexperiencesofcountriestryingtocopewiththeimpactofhydrometeorologicalhazardsisintegraltoadaptingthetoolstotheirspecificneeds.Bringtogetherme-teorologists,hydrologistsanddisastermanagerstoworkonoperationalscenarioswasahighpointoftheworkshop.

Figure76ImpactForecastandWarningTemplate

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ReferencesRogers,DavidP.,andVladimirV.Tsirkunov.2013.WeatherandClimateResilience:EffectivePrepared-

ness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Directions in Development.Washington,DC:WorldBank.

Rogers,D.P.H.KootvalandV.V.Tsirkunov.2016:EarlyWarning,ResilienceandRisktransfer.Submittedforpublication.

TangXu,LeiFeng,YongjieZou,andHaishenMu.2012.“TheShanghaiMulti-hazardWarningSystem:Ad-dressingtheChallengeofDisasterRiskReductioninanUrbanMegalopolis.”InInstitutionalPart-nershipsinMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystems, edited byMaryamGolnaraghi, 159-79.Heidel-berg,Germany.Springer.

UnitedNations. 2015. Sendai Framework forDisasterRiskReduction2015-2013.UnitedNations,NewYork.

World Bank. 2012. World Bank Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI) Program.http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/DRFI.

———.2013.PacificCatastropheRiskAssessmentandFinancingInitiative.RiskAssessment–SummaryReport.Washington,DC:WorldBank.

World Meteorological Organization. 2012. “The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery.” WMO, Geneva.http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/SDS.pdf.

———,2015:WMOguidelinesonmulti-hazardimpact-basedforecastandwarningservices.WMOTDno.1150.

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Annex1WorkshopParticipants Participant Country Organization EmailAddress1. TitimanuSimi Samoa MNRE-DMO [email protected]

2. LamekoAsoraSimanu Samoa MNRE-WRD [email protected]

3. MrLuteruAgaaliiTauvale Samoa SamoaMetService [email protected]

4. MoleniTu'uholoaki Tonga TongaMeteorologicalSer-vices

[email protected]

5. LaitiaFifita Tonga TongaMeteorologicalSer-vices

[email protected]

6. LiteaBiukoto Fiji PacificCommunity [email protected]

7. CyprienBosserelle Fiji PacificCommunity [email protected]

8. ZhuluanLin China 9. YonghuiWu China

10. DanminChen China

11. XuedingLi

China

12. MoussaTOURE Mali Mali-Meteo [email protected]

13. CheickFantaMadyKone Mali ProtectionCivile [email protected]

14. DonatienBarthelemyKamungaMusungayi

DRC MettelSat [email protected]

15. JeanK'OngangaKitamba-la

DRC ProtectionCivile [email protected]

16. PlacideMunsaiMasena DRC HydrographieetBalisage [email protected]

17. KehelellaSarathPremalal SriLanka DepartmentofMeteorology [email protected]. SulaimaLebbeMohamed

AliyarSriLanka IrrigationDepartment [email protected]

19. NataliaSilvaBustos Chile NationalEmergencyOffice [email protected]. FelipeRiquelmeVasquez Chile NationalEmergencyOffice [email protected]

21. WinMaw Myanmar DepartmentofMeteorologyandHydrology

[email protected]

22. TinMarHtay Myanmar DepartmentofMeteorologyandHydrology

[email protected]

23. SuSandarWin Myanmar ReliefandResettlementDepartment

[email protected]

24. MawuliLumor Ghana WaterResourcesCommis-sion

[email protected]

25. GavivinaYaoTamakloe Ghana NationalDisasterManage-mentOrganisation

[email protected]

26. SylvesterDarko Ghana HydrologicalServicesDe-partment

[email protected]

27. JamesBarroneDusu Ghana GhanaMeteorologicalAgen-cy

[email protected]

28. OuthonePhetluangsy LaoPDR DepartmentofMeteorologyandHydrology

[email protected]

61

Participant Country Organization EmailAddress29. AzizMazharul Bangladesh DepartmentofAgricultural

Extension,MinistryofAgri-culture

[email protected]

30. BinodParajuli Nepal DepartmentofHydrologyandMeteorology

[email protected]

31. RajendraSharma Nepal DepartmentofHydrologyandMeteorology

[email protected]

32. JolantaKryspin-Watson WorldBank [email protected]

33. TuoShi WorldBank [email protected]

34. JeanBaptisteMigraine WorldBank [email protected]

35. SelimShahpar WorldBank [email protected]

36. SurangaKahandawa WorldBank [email protected]. VladimirTsirkunov WorldBank [email protected]

38. MakotoSuwa WorldBank [email protected]. DavidRogers WorldBank [email protected]. ChenZhenlin China ShanghaiMeteorological

Service

41. ChenBaode China ShanghaiMeteorologicalService

[email protected]

42. Wuyun China ShanghaiMeteorologicalService

[email protected]

43. KongChunyan China ShanghaiMeteorologicalService

44. ZhangZhenyu China ShanghaiMunicipalGov-ernment

45. YangXiaodong China ShanghaiMunicipalGov-ernment

46. WangQiang China ShanghaiMeteorologicalService

47. XiaoChan China ChinaMeteorologicalAd-ministration

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Annex2WorkshopAgendaMonday,12December,2016

Start End

08:30 Registration

(participantswillbemeetinthelobbyofJianGuoHotelat08:30towalktoShanghaiMetSer-vice)

09:0010:00 Introductionofparticipants,objectivesandexpectedoutcomesofthemeeting

Session1:ThissessionwillintroducetheWorldBankGFDRRHydroMetprogramandmulti-hazardearlywarningsystems(MHEWS)inChina.PresenterswilldescribehowtheGFDRRprogramissupportingnewWorldBankinvestmentsinmeteorologicalandhydrologicalservices;theimportanceofMHEWS;andintroducetheaudiencetotheconceptofMHEWSasimplementedbyCMAinShanghai.

(SessionChair:DavidRogers,GFDRR)

10:0010:30OverviewofWBandGFDRRprogramssupportingmodernizationofHydroMetandEarly

WarningSystemsVladimirTsirkunovWorldBank/GFDRR

10:3011:00 CoffeeBreakandGroupPhoto

11:0012:00

WelcomefromDirectorGeneralofShanghaiMeteorologicalServiceChenZhenlin,SMS

Conceptofmulti-hazardearlywarninginChinaandOverviewofShanghaiMulti-HazardEarlyWarningSystem(MHEWS)

ChenZhenlin,SMS

12:0014:00 Lunch

Session2:OperationsoftheMeteorologicalService,HydrologicalServiceandDisasterManagementinShanghai.(SessionChair:ChenBaode,SMS)

14:0014:45 MeteorologicalServicesKongChunya,SMS

14:4515:30HydrologicalServices

ZhangZhenyuShanghaiWaterAffairsBureau

15:3016:00 CoffeeBreak

16:0016:45DisasterManagement

YangXiaodongShanghaiEmergencyManagementOfficeofShanghaiMunicipalGovernment

16:4517:30 Discussion

63

Tuesday,13December,2016Start End

Session3:ThissessionwillintroducetheconceptofImpact-BasedForecastandWarningServices;howtheycanbeimplementedinNMHSsandDisasterManagementorganizations;

andhowimpact-basedwarningservicesarebeingimplementedinShanghai.(SessionChair:TBD)

08:30 10:30

ImplementingImpact-BasedForecastandWarningServices

(includingexercise1:effectivewarnings)

DavidRogers,GFDRRandChenBaode,SMS

Discussion10:30 11:00 CoffeeBreak

11:00 12:30ImplementationofImpact-BasedForecastinginShanghai

WangQiang,SMS

Discussion12:30 14:00 Lunch

Session4:Chinanationalperspective–InthissessionCMAwilldiscusshowtheysupportdisasterriskreductionnationally

14:00 15:00CMAMeteorologicalCentreandServicesforDisasterRiskReduction

ChanXiaoMeteorologicalDisasterRiskManagementDivisionofNationalClimateCenterDiscussion

15:00 15:30 CoffeeBreak

Session5:Duringthissession,theparticipantswillhaveaguidedtouroftheSMSoperationscentre

15:30 17:30SMSOperationsCentre:briefpresentationsofeachoftheoperationalplatforms

(TBD)

64

Wednesday,14December2016Start End

Session5:Inthissession,participantswillpresentseveralforecastandwarningcasestud-ies,whichhighlighttheissueswefaceinimprovingthepublicandsectorialresponsetohazardousmeteorologicalandhydrologicalconditions.Thiswillbeanopportunityforallparticipantstosharetheirexperienceswiththeaimofidentifyingsolutions,whichmay

haveuniversalapplication.(Chair:DavidRogers,GFDRR)

08:30 10:30 ParticipantCaseStudies

10:30 11:00 Break

11:00 12:30 Exercise2a:ImpactMatrix

12:30 14:00 Lunch

14:00 15:30 ParticipantCaseStudies

15:30 16:00 Break

16:00 17:30 Exercise2b:VulnerabilityAssessment

65

Thursday,15December,2018

Start End

Session6:Inthissession,participantswillbeassignedtosmallgroupstoconductanim-pact-basedforecastandwarningexerciseusingtheideasdiscussedduringtheearlierses-

sionsandbuildingontheirownoperationalexperiencesandcasestudies(Chair:DavidRogers,GFDRRandChenBaode,SMS)

08:30 10:30 Exercise3:Impact-BasedForecastandWarning

10:30 11:00 Break

11:30 12:30 Exercise3:Impact-BasedForecastandWarningExercise

12:30 14:00 Lunch

14:00 16:30Presentationsbyeachgrouponfindingsandrecommendations,

Discussion,ReflectionsandWrapUp

66

Annex3Examplesof ImpactMatrices forMyanmar,Mozambique

andMauritiusWindImpactmatricesbasedondiscussionswithstakeholdersinMyanmar.

WindImpactsMatrixforthepublic(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthepublic–emergencyresponseandpublicsecurity)

Minimalimpacts MinorImpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

• Damagestobillboards• Health&diseaseproblems

• Electrocution• Electricshock• Fallinglampposts• Minordisruptiontotravel• Malaria• Psychologicalproblems• Someinjuries• Temporarystoppageofhealthservices

• Isolatedlossoftelecommunica-tionandelectricalpower

• Damagetoroofing

• Localizedlossofcommunicationandelectricitysupplyduetogustywinddamagingpowerlines

• Localizedbusinessdisruption(industrialzone,urbanareas)

• Localizeddisruptionofschools• Populationdisplacement• Diversionofaircraft• Dangertolifefromflyingobjects–injuries(physicaltrauma)

• Airandseasearchandrescuedisrupted

• Localizeddisruptiontogroundtransport

• Widespreaddamagetoweakstructures–housesandcom-mercialbuildingscollapsing

• Treesfallingdown• Electricpowerlinesfallingdown• Wind-drivenwavesdamagecoastalstructurescausinginjury

• Widespreaddelaystopublictransportation(Air,Road,Rail,Ship,Ferry).

• Dangertovehiclesonroads• Death• Highrisktoaircraft• Widespreadlossoffishingboats,andothershipping

• Searchandrescueimpactedonalargescale

WindImpactsMatrixforthewatersector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthedamsandirrigation)Minimalimpacts MinorImpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

• • Isolatedlossoftelecommunica-tionandelectricalpowermayaffectoperations

• Localizeddisruptiontocommu-nication&electricsupplyaffect-ingoperations

• Controlsystemsofdambreak-ing

WindImpactsMatrixfortheagriculturalandfisheriessector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonfarmersand/orfish-ers)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

• • Isolateddamagetocrops• Soilerosion• Highwavesdisruptfisheries

• Lossofcrops• Lossoflivestock• Financiallosses• Lossoffishinggearandboats,lossoflife

• WidespreadLossoffishingboatsandgear,lossoflife

• Crops,lossyield&Cultivation• Soilerosion• Financiallossestofarmersandfishers

WindImpactsMatrixfortransportationsector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectontransportationnetwork)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Minordisruptiontotravel • DisruptiontoTransportation

(rail,road,inlandwater,air-lines)

• Widespreaddisruptiontotransportnetworks(road,rail,air,sea)

WindImpactsMatrixforenergyandcommunicationsectors(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonenergysupplyandcommunicationnetworks)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Temporarylossoftelecommuni-

cationandelectricalpowermayaffectoperationsandsupply

• Shortbreakofhydropowergeneration

• MinordisruptiontoCommunica-tion&Electricsupplymayaffectsupply

•

• Widespreaddamagetocommu-nicationandenergysupplyin-frastructure

WindImpactsMatrixforhealthsector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonhealthservices)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Increaseinpresentationof

injuriesinemergencycenters• Spreadofmalaria

• Injuries• Temporarystoppageofhealthservices

• Psychologicalimpact• Populationdisplacementduetolossofhomes

• Lossoflife,traumaticinjuries(severityandduration,areaex-tent)

• DamagetoHealthcarefacilities

WindImpactsMatrixfornationalplanning(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectoncentralgovernment)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

67

•

•

• Populationdisplacement• Widespreadeconomicloss• Increasedcostofrescueandrehabilitation.

• MinordisruptiontoCommunica-tion&Electricsupply

• Widespreaddamagetoinfra-structuresystemsandservices(shelter,transportation,schools,hospitals,energysupply,com-munication)

ExtremetemperatureImpactmatricesbasedondiscussionswithstakeholdersinMyanmar.

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixforthepublic(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthepublic–emergencyre-sponse,andpublicsecurity)


• Health&diseaseproblems • Excessivesweating• Minordisruptiontotravel• Waterrelatedproblems• Psychologicalproblems• Vector-borneDiseases• HeatExhaustion/HeatStroke• Hypothermia• Isolatedshortageoffood

• Heatstroke• Interruptionofschoolhour• Snakebite• Decreasingfoodproduction• Localizedshortageoffood• Localizedforestfire• Migration

• Death• Heatstroke• Decreasingcropproduction• Widespreadforestfiresdestroyhomesandbusinesses

• Widespreaddisplacementofpopulation

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixforthewatersector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthedamsandirrigation)Minimalimpacts MinorImpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

• • Temporarylossoftelecommu-nicationandelectricalpowermayaffectoperations

• MinordisruptiontoCommunica-tion&Electricsupplyaffectingoperations

• Notenoughwaterinthewatersourcestosupplyirrigationwa-ter

• Riverwaterlevelatlowestpoint

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixfortheagricultural, forestryandenvironmentalsectors(impactsthathaveapri-maryeffectonfarmersandforestry)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts• • Isolateddamagetocrops

• Soilerosion•

• Lossofcrops• Lossoflivestock• Financiallosses• Localizedforestfiretimberlossesandenvironmentaldeg-radation

• Crops,lossyield&Cultivation• Financiallossestofarmersandforestry

• Widespreadforestfiresandenvironmentaldegradation

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixfortransportationsector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectontransportationnet-work)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Minordisruptiontotravel • DisruptiontoTransportation

infrastructure(rail,road,inlandwater,airlines)

• WidespreaddisruptiontoTransportationinfrastructure(rail,road,inlandwater,air-lines)

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixforenergyandcommunicationsectors(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonenergysupplyandcommunicationnetworks)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Temporarylossoftelecommuni-

cationandelectricalpowermayaffectoperationsandsupply

• Shortbreakofhydropowergeneration

• MinordisruptiontoCommunica-tion&Electricsupplymayaffectsupply

•

• Widespreaddisruptiontocom-municationandenergysupplyinfrastructure

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixforhealthsector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonhealthservices)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Heatstrokecaseloadincrease

• Snakebitecaseloadincrease• Vector-bornediseasecaseloadincrease

• HighHeatstrokecaseload• Lossoflifeamongcertainpopu-lationgroups

• Widespreadlossoflifeamongallpopulation

• Veryhighheatstrokecaseload

ExtremetemperatureImpactsMatrixfornationalplanning(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectoncentralgovernment)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts•

•

• Limitedmigrationfromaffectedareas

• Widespreadmigration

68

FloodImpactmatricesdevelopedbyStakeholdersinMozambique.Thematricesweredevelopedbasedontheirprimaryimpactonasector;however,theeffectsmaybecumulative.Impactsonwatersectorandagriculturesector,andlocalgovernmentresponsi-

bleforservices,forexample,willlikelyimpactthepublicandemergencyresponders.

FloodImpactsMatrixforthepublic(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthepublic,emergencyresponseandpublicsecuri-ty)


• Waterinroadsbutpeoplecanstilldrivethrough

• Somewateraroundhouses

• Someminorroadsnotpassa-ble.Majorroadsaffectedbutcanbeused

• Housesclosetotheriverinundatedbutpeoplecanevacuatethemselves

• Somevillagescutoffforashortperiodoftime,peoplearesafe

• Possibleincreaseinwater-bornediseases(malaria,cholera,etc.

• Majorroadsun-passableanddamaged.Disruptiontoelectricityandcommunica-tionnetworks

• Housesandstreetsinun-dated;schools,hospitalsandotherpublicservicesdisrupted

• Lossoflifeandlargedam-ages

• Farmsinundated.Issuesoflocalfoodsecurity

• Largescaledamagetoma-jorandminorroads

• Electricityandcommunica-tiondisruptedacrosslargeareas

• Majortownsandcitiesaffected;publicservicedis-ruptionacrossawidearea

• Largescaledamageandlossoflife

• Agriculturalgroundsinun-datedacrosslargeareaswithsignificantthreattofoodsecurity

FloodImpactsMatrixforthewatersector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthedamsandirrigation)


• Roadsnotpassablebysmallvehicles,trafficproblems

• Isolatedlowlyinglandfloodingnearriver

• Roadsandbridgesfloodedbutpassable,trafficaffected

• Localisedfloodinginruralpopulatedareas

• Localisedfloodinginlowlyingareas

• Roads,railwaysandbridg-esnotpassableatall

• Dykesstartovertopping• Widespreadfloodinginpopulatedruralareas

• Localisedfloodingofurbanareas

• Risktolivesofpeople• Risktolivesofanimals

• Roadsnotpassablebysmallvehicles,trafficprob-lems

• Isolatedlowlyinglandflooding

• Roadsandbridgesfloodedbutpassable,trafficaffect-ed

• Localisedfloodinginruralpopulatedareas

• Localisedfloodinginlowlyingareasnearriver

FloodImpactsMatrixfortheagriculture(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonfarmers,forestry,andenvironment)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts• Minorfloodingtolowlandandcropareas

• Isolateddamagetovegetation

• Lossofcropsatrivermar-gins.

• Interruptionofsomesmallsystems(irrigation).

• Elevationofwaterlevelsindamsandotherplaces(25-50%)**Bigdifferencefromdrought.The production of crops canincrease after floods (highersoil fertility, more especiallyinhighzones).

• Cropsandanimalsaffected(50-75%)

• Someinfrastructureandirrigationsystems

• Totaldestructionofcrops.• Totalorpartialdestructionofinfrastructure.

• Migrationofpeopleandanimals.

• Differentdiseases.• Morecostsafterfloodsduetodestructionofinfra-structure

69

WindImpactmatricesbasedondiscussionswithstakeholdersinMozambique.

WindImpactsMatrixforthepublic(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthepublic–emergencyresponseandpublicsecu-rity)


• Treesblownover• Smallscaledamagetocrops

• Roofsofhousesdamaged• Moretreesblownoverinlargerareasthatblockroads

• Moredamagetoagriculture• Smallboatsaffectedthatareusedfortransportandfish-ing.Engineboatscanstillop-erate

• Someelectricitypolesdam-aged,causingminoroutages

• Morevulnerablehousescollapse

• Significantdamagetoroofsofmanyhouses.Moretreesfalldown

• Electricitypolesfalldown,electricitynetworkdisrupt-edonlargerscale

• Ferriescannotoperate,alsosmalltomediumengineboatsgrounded

• Primaryschoolscannotbeusedbecauseofsafety.Sec-ondaryschoolscanstillbeused.

• Hospitalsstilloperational,butpossiblyelectricityproblems

• Lossoflifeofbothpeopleandanimals

• Bigtreesfalldown.• Manyhousescollapseorare

severelydamaged• Electricitynetworkseverely

disruptedonlargescale• Nomoreboatscanoperate,

evenbigshipsgrounded• Schools,hospitalsandmany

publicservices,damagedandsomecannotbeused.

WindImpactsMatrixforthewatersector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonthedamsandirrigation)


• Lossofmeasurementequip-ment

WindImpactsMatrixfortheagriculturalsector(impactsthathaveaprimaryeffectonfarmersand/orfishers)

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts • Evapotranspiration (20%

belownormal)

• Lossofcrops• Lossoflivestock• Financiallosses• Lossoffishinggearandboats,lossoflife

• WidespreadLossoffishingboatsandgear,lossoflife

• Crops,lossyield&Cultivation• Soilerosion• Financiallossestofarmersandfishers

FlashfloodImpactmatricesdevelopedbyStakeholdersinMauritius.

FlashFloodImpactsMatrixforFirstResponders


• 1cmSurfacewateronroad• Lowvisibility• Slowtraffic• Veryshortduration

• 3-5cmsurfacewateronroad• Trafficjam• Sporadicaccumulationofwater(compounds)

• Disruptoutdooractivities• Smallareaaffected• Shortduration(15min)

• 30cmsurfacewater• Accidents• Heavytrafficjam• Disruptsocioeconomicactivities(schools,transport,business)

• Increasedexposure• Strandedstudents/workers• Floodinginbasements/under-groundparking,

• Largerareaaffected• Longertimeduration(30min)• Accumulationofdebris(branch-es,rocks,silt)

• Blockeddrainsandotherwatercourses

• Affectcertainessentialservices(communication,wastewa-ter/sewageoverflow)

• Reducedseaactivities• Smallareaofvegeta-tion/agricultureaffected

• Cancelledpublicandoutdoorevents

• Minordamagetoinfrastructures(road/bridges/buildings

• Up-toandabove1m• Casualties• Vehicleswashedaway• Drowning• Inundationoflargerareas• Pliedvehiclesalongwatercourses

• Majordamagetoallinfrastruc-ture

• Overfloodedbasementandundergroundparking

• Trappedpersons• MajorDisruptionsofessentialservices(publictransport,communication,powersupply,accesstohospitals,etc)

• Delayedaccessemergencyresponders

• Contaminatedpotablewater• Significantaccumulationofdebris

• Largerareaofvegeta-tion/agricultureaffected

•

70

Flash Flood Impacts Matrix for Public Minimalimpacts MinorImpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts

• Trafficjamandpublicstranded• Powersupplydisruption

• Soilerosion• Cropdamage

• Panicbehaviour• Debrisflow• Socio-economicactivitiesdis-ruption

• Masscasualty• Damfailure• WaterDisruption

• Flooding(Commercial&Resi-dential)

• Drowning• Deaths• Animaldeaths• Propertydamage(Commercial&Residential)

• Peopleandcarstrappedinundergroundparking

• CommunicationdisruptionFlashFloodImpactsMatrixforWATER


• Excessivespillsfromdamscausinghighpeakflows

• Damageandlossofequipment• Reduceworkforce• Telecommunicationdamage• Healthimpact• Electricitysupplycut

• Disruptionofwatersupply,electricity,transport

• Siltationandblockageofwaterintake

• Watercontamination&prolifer-ationofdiseases

• Damageofpipeline• Disruptionofairtrafficservices,roadtraffic

• Damagewaterresourcesinfra-structure(feedercanals,dams,boreholes,etc.)

• Socio-economicalactivities

• Immediatecasualties• Disruption• Sedimentationoflagoons(deathofaquacultureorganisms)

• Overflowoffeedercanals,dams,rivers,etc.

• Agricultureloss

DroughtimpactsmatrixbasedondiscussionswithstakeholdersinMauritius

DroughtImpactsMatrixforWaterSector

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts• Unpleasantenvironment

• Healthimpact• Socialunrest• Disruptionofwork• Reducedhydro-electricalactivi-ties

• Socio-economicdisruption• Imbalanceofecosystem&biodi-versity

• Spreadofdiseases• Poorsanitaryconditions

• Excessiveagricultureloss• Disruptionofpotablewatersupply

• Wildfire

DroughtImpactsMatrixforFirstResponders

Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts• OccasionalSmallFireinvegeta-tionfield

• FrequentsmallFireoutbreaks• Reducedwaterlevelinreser-voirs

• Reducedsupplyofwaterforirrigation

• Reducedwaterlevelinriver• Localisedcropfailures

• FrequentlargeFireoutbreaks• Watershortage• Publichealthproblem• Limitedagriculturalproducts• Reducedsupplyoflivestock• Disrupteconomicactivities• Reduceirrigation

• Majorfireoutbreaks• AcuteWatershortage• MajorPublichealthproblem• Shortageofvegetables• Majorsanitationissues• Reducedpowersupply• Stopoperationofcertainindus-try

• Affectedlivelihood• Dam/Reservoirsdryingup• • Stopirrigation

Drought Impacts Matrix for Public Minimalimpacts Minorimpacts Significantimpacts Severeimpacts• Wild fires • Hydro-electric generation

• • Sanitation • Spike in vegetables prices

• Agriculture sector (crops & live-stock)

• Domestic water supply • Social unrest

71

Annex4ImpactForecastandWarningTemplate1. [colour]Warningfor{hazard}

Validity Warning Forecaster’sAssess-ment

HazardImpactMatrix

Issuedat:Validfrom:Validto:

2. [colour]Warningfor{hazard}


HazardImpactMatrix


3. [colour]Warningfor{hazard}


HazardImpactMatrix


72

ACTIONS

73

Annex5ParticipantFeedback

Question Rating

1 Howwouldyouratetheoverallusefulofthisevent? 3.9

2 Towhatextentdidtheworkshopmeetyourexpectations? 3.6

3 Towhatextentdidtheworkshophelpyoulearngoodpracticesinmulti-hazardim-pact-basedearlywarningsystems?

3.5

4 Towhatextenddidtheworkshopprovidenetworkingopportunities 3.5

Comments

5 Whataspectsofearlywarningsystems/impact-basedwarningareyoumostinterestedtolearnfromShanghaiMeteorologicalService?

• Howthey'vemadeimpactforecastingoperational,Sharingofdata/informationandexper-tise.

• Riverflooding,urbanflooding• GuidedtourforweatherforecastingcentreandDisastermanagementinShanghai• Institutionalcollaborationforanticipationofimpacts;Bestapproachtoengagevulnerable

communitiesinmonitoringofimpactsandupdatingimpactthresholds• Disseminationsystemsforforecastinformationandearlywarning.Thefactthatthefore-

casts/warningsmustbeimpact-based• Workstation,forecastingarea• Iammostinterestedtolearnabouthowinstrumentationandcommunicationwasdevel-

opedandhowinteractionsbetweeneventsareconsidered• Instrument,network,telecommunicationsystemamongothers,technology,capacities,

researchsectorrelationshipwithSNS,howisthecollaborationwithotheragencies(otherhazardsandotherregions)

• Estimationofreconstructamountsandpossibleimpactsonpopulations.• Impactofearlywarningsystem.• Rainfallestimateforecasting;andtoolsandmethodsofforecastingforareasofthunder-

stormdevelopments• Establishmentofthebriefagenciescoordinatingbeforeitsouttothepublic;Colorcoding

andactionsfollow;andestablishmentoftheShanghaiEmergencyWarningCenter.• PublicWeatherService;swellforecasting;andintroductiontotheirmeteorologicaland

forecastingsystemorganizationandsetup.• Warningdissemination• Iaminterestedinnotonlyimpactbasedwarningandforecastbutalsorealtimemonitoring

systemfromShanghaiMeteorologicalService.• I ammore interested indissemination systemabout earlywarning system/ impactbased

warningtotheircommunities.• ModelbasedEWS,disseminationofwarnings• Technology• Theresponsesfromdisastermanager,afterwarningbasedtometforecast• Communicationnetwork,coordinationamongstakeholders,meteorologicalradars• Stakeholderscoordinationbeforeandduringdisasters,andtheirinfrastructureandhuman

resources• Flashfloodforecasting;andJointwarningoperations• Numericalweatherpredictionandcouplingofclimateandhydrologicalmodels.Willalso

liketolearnaboutissuingwarningusingcolorcoding.• ImpactbasedearlywarningsystemofSMS;NWPsystemofSMS;AWSandobservation

systemofSMS,marine;andForecastofSMSarethemostinterestedtolearnforme• Forecastingsectoralimpactsofdifferenthazards-quantifyingthesizeandnatureofactual

impacts• Howtheyintegrateimpactandprobabilityofoccurrencewhenissuingwarnings• Impactbasedforecastapproachdeveloped;andworkinggroupsthematics• Duringthisworkshop,wewereimpressedbyhowtheShanghaiMeteorologicalService

managesmeteorologicalandhydrologicaldata.Weareawareoftheirtechnologicalad-vancesinmeteorologyandhydrology.

Q1,Q3,Q4:5=excellent;4=verygood;3=good;2=average;1=poorQ2:5=exceededexpectations;4=metmyexpectations;3=nearlymetmyexpectations;2=didnotmeetmyexpectations;1=Belowmyexpectations

74

• Interagencycoordination,precisionindatatransmission.

6 Whatdidyoulikebestaboutthisworkshop?

• Sharingofexperiencebetweencountries• Thereisnoexercisetoknowhowthefloodmodelsareforecasting(…..).(…….)thetypeof

modelsare(…..)forecasting• Practicalexercisemettheexpectation,forsomeextent.Itistobepracticebyourselvesto

improvetheknowledge.ThelecturedeliveredbyDG/SMSopenedeyefortheabilityofim-pactbasedwarning.Theknowledgewasenhancedbytherelatedpresentationsprovidedbyotherpresenters

• Abilitytounderstandcountriessharesimilarrequirementsandhaveverydifferentsolu-tions;Visitoftheforecastingcenter;Experienceoftheorganizersbothonmeteorologyandemergencyresponse/decisionmaking

• Groupworkanddiscussion.Bestpracticesexchanges.• ToknowaboutSMSdevelopeditssystemandhowitismanagingalerts.• Learn about other experiences, I recognized very different scopes and realities, I realize

abouttheimportanceaboutintegratinghydro-metknowledge• Thefactthatenoughtimewasallocatedtogroupworkswhichallowedforindividualpartic-

ipationwasexcellent.• Implementingimpact-basedforecastandwarningservicesandincludingalltheexercise.• Practicalworkandgroupinteraction• Asaforecaster,whattheweatherwilldoitthefundamentalquestionallweatherforecast-

ersshouldconcernabout.ExercisesonhowtodevelopmatrixforeachscenarioarethewayforwardfordevelopingSOPsandactionstobeperformedforimpactbasedforecast.

• Theinteractivesessionsonthelastdayonimpactmatrixexercises.Recommendmoretimeallocatedintothesetypesofsessionsinthefuture;Moreeffectivegroupexercises.

• Theideaofimpact-basedwarnings.Thedifferentcasestudieswereeyeopening.• Ilikeoneofthetopicisexercise-3impactbasedforecastandwarningexercise.• Iamreallyintodoingthelastdayactivities-impactbasedforecastwarningexerciseusing

respectivecountrymaps.• Internationalparticipation;andsharingofideasandprocessesofMHEWS• Facilities• Ilikethepractice,becausewegeteasilytheliabilitytowork;andtomakewarningimpact

afterforecastdowarning• Impactbasedwarning,weatherimpactmatrix,multi-hazardearlywarningsystem,good

practicesofSMS.• haveclearideaofimpact-basedforecastingandriskbasedwarning• Lastdayactivityonimpactforecasting• Presentationsfromvariouscountrieshelpedmelearnaboutthevariouschallengesand

successesofthevariouscountries.Presentedmewithnewideasonhowtoimproveoursystem.

• Practicalexerciseforimpactbasedforecast/warning.Lastdaylecture/groupwork.• Interactionwithregionalcountriesandsharingexperiences• Discussionsandexercisesaroundimpactmatrices• AssistancefromWBG'sstaff;Understandingaboutimpactbasedforecast;Organizationhas

beengood• Thankstotheorganizers,Ireallyappreciatedthegeographicaldiversityoftheparticipants

fromaroundtheworld,andtheopportunitytoexchangetheexperienceofdatamanage-mentinhydro-meteorology,tolearnmoreabouthowdataareobtainedandprocessed.

• Theexchangeofexperiencebetweencountriesanddifferenttypesofforecastmodelling.

7 What did you like leastaboutthisworkshop?

• Longpresentations(Sometooexhaustiveandtheoretical)• Timeconstraints/limitations• languagethatwasused• Ithinkthatinteractionsbetweenhydrometeorologicaleventsandother,forinstance,geo-

logicaleventwaspoor.• Iexpectedmoreinformationaboutmulti-hazardapproach;andtoknowhowtoworkwith

othersectors.Icanseetherelationaboutimpacts,butnotduringtheemergenciesareevolving(cascadeeffects)

• Difficulttoindicate-probablymyinabilitytolookaroundShanghaiCity.Atourofthecitywouldhaveeverenhancedmyknowledgebetter.

• Timemanagementoftheworkshop;Presentationtimesshouldbekeptto10minutes.• Itwasalittleintense.• All thetopicsarevery interestingformycolleague,becausemycolleaguestryto improve

impact-basedforecastprocess.Noleastaboutthisworkshop.• Therearenothingdislikeactivitiesandevents• Nofieldbasedapplicationwasobserved.• Thematerialsoftheworkshop• Thetrainingaboutwindspeedforecast.thisisimportantforthepopulationsecurity.

75

• Therewasnofieldvisit• Hadnocommoncasestudytodiscussamongthecountries• PowerpointsinChineselanguage.• LesstimetolearnabouteachotherindividuallyandalsotoexplorethecityofShanghai• internetsystem• Communicationbarriers and inconsistent timeandopportunities allocated toparticipants

toshareandcontribute.• ToomanypresentationsfromSMSinday1and2.• Workshopdurationhasbeenveryshort• Thetimelostfortheinterpretationdidnotallowustogodeeperandexplainbetterthe

subject.Despitetheinterpretation,thelanguagebarriermadeitdifficulttocomprehendthelecturers.

• Theprogramwasverypackedandtheyshouldhaveaccountforjetlagandchangeoftime-zones.

8 Pleaseshareanyothercommentswithus

• Opportunitytoworkonanoperationalscenariofortheregion.Bringtogetherforecasters,hydrologists,DMpractitionertoworkonmessaging.ExchangewithothercountriesshowmetandDRMvaluable.

• PresentationmaybeanylanguagewithtranslationbutthePowerpointslidestobeinEng-lishpreferably;Pleasetrytoincludesomeexercise(practical)worksin(…….)programme;andNameboardtobeorganizedwithcountry.

• ItismuchimportanttoincludeEnglishVersionofpresentation,evenifconductwithotherlanguage.*Timeallocatedforpracticalswasmoreorlessenough;Itismuchhelpfulifyouprovidesomeliteratureaboutimpactbasedwarning

• IrecommendmoreexamplesofhowinstitutionscollaborateinShanghaithroughpracticalcasesandhowcapacitieshaveevolvedovertimethroughreturnofexperience.Thecountrypresentationsthroughcasestudieswasaveryniceapproachtoshowwhathappensinreali-ty;mostcountrieshavenotfollowedthetemplateandthisresultsinlongpresentations.

• Theissueofadequatetimefortheexchanges,discussionsandexercisesshouldbelookedat;Theworkshophasbeenveryinformativeandinteractiveforme,butforthetimecon-straints,Iwouldhavewishedthatwecontinue.

• moretimeusedfortranslating.Notexpectedinthiskindofworkshopfromparticipants.ParticipantsshouldspeakEnglishtosametimewhichissometimes("ANNOYING")

• Ithinkthatthepublicwasnotchosencorrectly.WBcouldhavesuggestedpreviouslythesetcoupletoparticipateintheworkshop.Ibelievethatexperiencesfromdevelopedcountrieswillbeusefulforus(Chile)notonlyonesegmentofeconomies(forinstance,toshareandknowhowUSA;Germany;Japan;others)worksinthisissues...Ihopethatsharewithusallpresentationsandmaterials

• Theopportunitytomeetalltheparticipantsfromaroundtheworldcreatedaverygoodplatformforme(notonlytolearnfromtheirexperiencehereattheworkshop,butalsotocreateaplatformforpartnerdiscussionswhichwecarebackinourcountries)

• Thisworkshopwasveryusefulforme,becausewecansharetheexperiencebetweenalltheparticipants.Wecanhaveabetterunderstandingofthevalueofmulti-hazardimpactbasedwarning.

• Meteorologistsmushbegivenmoretimeinteractiondurationandinformationaboutfore-castingtechniques

• Sharinglessonslearntwasabsolutelyhelpfulforthedevelopmentofimpact-basedforecastformycountry;Thepresentofadisastermanagerfrommycountrywouldhavebeenuse-ful;Impact-basedforecastdemandsmoreresponsesfordeliveryofanewservice,henceforittosuccess,weneedfinancialsupportfromalllevels.

• PleaserequireEnglishfluencyforparticipants;Verygoodorganizationofworkshop;Pleasenoteherethattheinformationpackagesgiventouswasoutofdateespeciallytransporta-tionadvices/guidance.Pleaseprovideupdatedinformationtoparticipant;pleasefocusmoreinteractivesessionsdedicatedtothePacificperspectiveandneeds.

• Verygoodworkshop.Iwouldliketocoordinatemoreexerciseforimpact-basedwarning,becausewearetryingtoissueimpact-basedwarning.Ifyouhaveothertrainingorwork-shoponthissubject,pleaseinvitemycolleagues.

• Wehavetosaveourpeopleandworldasmuchaswecanalthoughwedon’tchangetheclimatesituations.

• Myexpectations:handsonlearningofnewtechnology,softwares,proceduresetcthatIcantakebackandimplementoradvisecountryonawayforward.Toomuchtimespentoncountrypresentations.Thereareallofhydrologicalmodelswithmeteorologicalmodelsthatwouldhaveprovidedbetterunderstandingtoimproveourimpactforecast+assessment.

• Thewellcoming.theorganizationontime,Butthematerialisverypoor,notimetovisitShanghaicity.Thedurationistooshort.TheShanghaimeteorologisthirethevisitorshim-self.

• Itwasnicetoknowaboutforecastingandearlywarningsystemsofdifferentcountriesintheglobe,includingAfrica,PacificIslandsandSouthAmerica;ThankyouWBG,GFDRRand

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SMS• IftherewasafieldvisitofsomecommunitywheretheEWSisgoodimplemented,wasable

togivemoreideahowtheyhavebeendoing,wouldprovidemoreknowledgeonthesys-tem'seffectiveness.

• FortheChinesepresentations,itwouldhavebeengoodiftheirslidesareinEnglish!• Willbegoodtohavehands-ontrainingonsomefewapplicationsormoredemonstrations

onhowtheearlywarningsystemsworks.• Weneedmoreinformationforimpactbasedforecast/warningwithcolorcode.Moreprac-

ticalexerciseforspecificimpact.Weneedtoknowhowtoconsiderbasedataforcolorcodeimpactbasedforecast/warning.

• Moreinformationalmaterialscouldbepreparedforparticipants.• Weliveonthesameplanetwherenooneissafefromtheevileffectsoftheclimatechange.

Thisworkshopshouldbereproducedindifferentcontinents.• I’dliketothanktheorganizersfortheworkshop.Itisofimportanttomultiplythethoughts,

the activities that we carry out before, during and after the projects (???). It’s also im-portanttoforeseethetranslationandmoreorlessthelanguagesandissuethecertificatesofparticipation.

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