Imperialism, globalization in crisis and the Arab revolutions

Introduction

o Place of report in the sessiono Reporter:

a US Jewish gay anti-imperialist … in Holland

o Reporter’s limits: not an economist not an expert on any of these countries

Overview of report

I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory

II. Neoliberal globalization

III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’

Permanent revolution

V. The Arab revolutions today

I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory

The Marxist understanding of imperialism before Lenin Marx and Engels: Ireland, Poland, Algeria and

India German social democracy: ‘not a man, not a

penny’ An outdated vision of capitalism: revisionism The shock of 1914

Basics of Lenin’s theory

(from a non-economist!)Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly capitalismUneven development and export of capitalCompetition for raw materialsThe division of the planet: colonial empiresSpheres of influence and semi-colonies

Colonial empires 1914

(Official) division of the world

PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE EUROPEAN COLONIAL POWERS (including the US)

1876 1900 Increase or decreaseAfrica.......... 10.8 90.4 +79.6Polynesia.... 56.8 98.9 +42.1Asia............ 51.5 56.6 +5.1Australia..... 100.0 100.0 —America...... 27.5 27.2 -0.3

(Unofficial) control of the world

DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGN

CAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE

(circa 1910)

Britain France Germany Total

(in billions of German marks)

Europe.......... 4 23 18 45

America.......... 37 4 10 51

Asia, Africa, and Australia...... 29 8 7 44

Total........ 70 35 35 140

Imperialism, 1916-1982

1914-20 Re-division: German and Ottoman possessions become British, French, Italian, Japanese and US

1936-45 Failed German challenge to re-division; Italy and Japan lose their colonial possessions

1947/1956 Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark replacement of British by US hegemony

1949 Chinese revolution1955 Bandung: India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain

autonomy1975 US defeat in Vietnam1979/1980/1982 Thatcher elected; Reagan elected; debt crisis

II. Neoliberal globalization

Is imperialism still a relevant framework to analyze the world economy today?

Claudio Katz’s arguments:• Growth of inequality: dominant and dependent

countries• Terms of trade• Extraction of financial resources• Transfer of industrial profits• Loss of political autonomy

Distribution of wealth (2005)

% world pop. % world GDP GDP per cap.

Dominant 14% 78% $ 31,000

countries

Dependent 80% 19% $ 1,410

countries

(Figures from CADTM)

Terms of trade and repatriation of profits

Ratio of prices between dependent country exports and dependent country imports:

1980 100

2002 48

Net repatriation of profits from dependent countries by multinational corporations, 1998-2002:

$ 334 billion

Multinationals: monopoly finance capital

Selected GDP of countries and revenues of multinational corporations

Countries (IMF, 2012, $ billion) 1. US $ 15,685 2. China 8,227 5. France 2,609 7. Brazil 2,396 10. India 1,825 13. Spain 1,352 18. Netherlands 773 39. Egypt 257 43. Israel 241 46. Iraq 213104. Afghanistan 20

Multinationals (2012/13, $ billion) 1. Shell $ 482 2. Walmart 469 3. ExxonMobil 450 4. Sinopec 428 5. PetroChina 409 6. BP 388 7. China State Grid 298 8. Toyota 266 9. Volkswagen 24810. Total 234

Autonomy lost - and found?

IMF/World Bank/WTO: one dollar, one vote

‘Structural adjustment’ and ‘conditionality’

Consequences for social spending and debt repayment

Consequences for negotiating positions

Beyond dependence: China, Brazil, India(?)

Signs of change: Doha, Bancosur(?)

III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’

• Militarism: response to — and cause of — disintegration of peripheral states (Katz)

• Role of US:

* Enforcer of neoliberal world order

* Sole superpower: 39% of global military spending

* Military-industrial complex

* Military supremacy & inter-imperialist rivalries

* Oil: Latin America, the Middle East and shale

• Tools: ‘Coalitions of the willing’, NATO and UN

The post-1991 world order

The first US invasion of Iraq (1991): a decisive moment (Achcar)US military return to Gulf region (after 1962 withdrawal)

Demonstration of superior US military technology

Network of bases and alliances

The empire and Obama

A time of deepening crisisChallenges to US/European/Japanese powerIraq, Afghanistan and LibyaFactors in imperial politics in Mideast:• Oil• Geopolitics• Alliance with Zionism• ‘Clash of civilizations’

The clash of barbarisms

9/11: Spotlight on Islamic world Petty bourgeoisie and fundamentalism The diversity of fundamentalism: pro-imperial, anti- ‘crusader’ and undecided Women and LGBTs Fundamentalism: a deadly enemy ‘March separately, strike together’ The Arab revolutions: fundamentalism sidelined?

IV. Permanent revolution

Permanent revolution and our identityA distinctive feature of Trotskyism

The heritage of the Bolshevik revolution

World War II, Yugoslavia and China

The 1968 generation, Vietnam and Che

Since 1989: the collapse of national liberation movements and new strategic debates

Origins of the theory

1905: Mensheviks (‘intransigent opposition’), Bolsheviks (‘democratic dictatorship’) and Trotsky

1917: April Theses: Lenin and Trotsky converge

1923-4: Socialism in one country vs. permanent revolution

1927: Tragedy of the Chinese revolution

1929: The theory generalized

Key points of Trotsky’s theory

Against economic determinism (‘maturity’ and ‘immaturity’): democratic and socialist tasks

Against stagism

The working class and its allies

The revolution: begins nationally, progresses internationally, is completed globally

No triumphalism: possibilities and impossibilities

1945- : the theory developed

Michael Löwy and Latin American Marxism

Yugoslavia, China, Vietnam: bureaucratized permanent revolution

Cuba and Nicaragua

Mexico, Bolivia, Algeria: interrupted popular revolutions

Turkey, India, Indonesia: semi-revolutions from above

1995: the theory re-examined

Theoretical tasks comparable to early 20th centuryMajor defeats; structures are no longer functional (reformist, populist, revolutionary nationalist)Crisis of leadership is now a crisis of movementNational/international/global: where is the power?Since 1995: Venezuela, Bolivia… … and the Arab revolutions

V. The Arab revolutions

The Arab world: history and its lessons

The stakes: oil, Zionism and geopolitics

The story so far: Tunisia, Egypt, Syria

Results and prospects: an ongoing permanent revolution?

Revolution and solidarity

Glory of the Arab world

British and French imperialism

US imperialism in the Middle East

1933 US contract with Saudi king

1947-9 Nakba; creation of Israeli state

1956 Suez crisis

1967 & 1973 US backs Israel

1979 Iran revolution; USSR invades Afghanistan

1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan

1991 First US invasion of Iraq

2001 9/11; US invasion of Afghanistan

2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq

2008 Assault on Gaza

2010/1 Arab revolutions; intervention in Libya

2011 US troop withdrawal from Iraq

Lessons of Middle Eastern history

Depth of anti-imperialismOil, imperialism and populismIsrael: imperial asset and liabilityVital interests: converging and contradictory‘The Arab despotic exception’

Oil: reserves by region

Palestine: continuing Nakba

The Arab revolutions begin: Tunisia and Egypt

An end to the ‘Arab despotic exception’?

Tyranny, corruption, crisis: youth without a future

Tunisia: the spark

Egypt: the central country (since 1952)

In the workplaces / on Tahrir Square

Imperialism responds: Morocco; Jordan; Saudis in Bahrain

Elections: victory of (diverse and divided) Islamic forces

The crises of an-Nahda and the Brotherhood in power

A four-cornered fight?

Revolution in the trenches: Libya and Syria

Libya: oil (a bit), shifting relation to imperialismNATO intervention: imperialism back in the gameSyria: even less oil; relation to ZionismAchcar on differences between Libya and SyriaSyria: mounting bloodshed and impossible interventionThe right to assistance - and the danger of subordinationAnother four-cornered fight?

Results and prospects: an ongoing permanent revolution?

The dynamic of ‘growing over’ (2011 IC text)Regional dimension - and international (Madrid, Madison, New York)Popular participation, Constituent Assembly and state institutionsA very unfinished process: is class independence possible?Debates in the Tunisian Popular FrontIs bourgeois democracy impossible?Reform versus revolution?Towards a working-class insurrection?

Revolution and solidarity

The legitimacy of revolution

The balance of military forces

Our globalization: linking civil societies

Fundamentalism and democracy, capital and labour

Solidarity: a political battle

Solidarity: concrete tasks