IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL ...
Transcript of IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL ...
IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
Tim Canan, AICP
Planning Data and Research Program Director
Reston Task Force
May 10, 2021
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About COG
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
• Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments (COG) is an
independent, nonprofit association
of local governments
• Brings area leaders together to
address major regional issues in
the District of Columbia, suburban
Maryland and Northern Virginia
• Membership comprises 300 elected
officials from 22 local governments,
the Maryland and Virginia state
legislatures, and U.S. Congress
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About TPB
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
• National Capital Region
Transportation Planning Board
(TPB) is the federally-designated
Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) for the region
• Plays an important role as the
regional forum for transportation
planning
• Prepares plans and programs that
the federal government must
approve for federal-aid
transportation funds to flow to
metropolitan Washington
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COVID Cases & Deaths in Washington, DC Metro Area
New York Times Cases & Deaths Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-cases-deaths-tracker.html#USA-
MSA47900. The Times uses reports from state, county and regional health departments.
March 1 Update: Over several days, Virginia added many deaths that occurred earlier in 2021.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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Non-Farm Jobs (000s) - Washington MSAMarch 2019 to March 2021
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally-adjusted, Thousands)
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
Revised BLS data show the region lost 370,900 jobs between March and April of
2020. As of March 2021, 182,700 jobs have been added during our partial reopening.
3,322.6
3,336.0
2,965.1
3,147.8
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
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Unemployment Rate Washington MSA and US
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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Our unemployment rate nearly tripled with the onset of the pandemic but was still
nearly 5 points below the nation. With partial reopening, the national and local rates did
converge in late 2020, but the local rate so far in 2021 is again below the national rate.
4.5%
14.4%
13.0%
11.2%10.5%
8.5%7.7%
6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2%
3.2%
9.4%8.7% 8.7%
8.4%7.8%
6.9%6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Jul-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Se
p-2
0
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan
-21
Fe
b-2
1
Ma
r-2
1
US Washington MSA
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Over-the-year Job Change By Sector March 2021 vs March 2020
Washington MSA (Thousands)
The most-current employment data shows job losses to be in hospitality, retail,
and several service industry sectors.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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-0.6
-3.5
-17.0
-11.8
-4.7
-7.5
-13.0
-27.0
-87.3
-74.8
-19.0
-8.6
5.1
-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Manufacturing
Mining, Logging, & Construction
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
[Retail]
Information
Financial Activites
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
[Accommodation and Food Services]
Other Services
Government
[Federal]
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-343.400 -367.300 -370.900 -372.000 -405.800-453.600 -471.300
-585.500
-961.500
-1,810.300
-2,000
-1,800
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Houston Atlanta Washington
San
Francisco Dallas Boston Philadelphia Chicago Los Angeles New York
(Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs)
Non-Farm Job Loss March to April 2020 In 10 Largest MSAs
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Revised Data 3/21)
Our initial job losses were among the lowest when compared to many of our peer
regions. New York and Los Angeles experienced the most severe losses.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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9Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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Change in Office Vacancy RatesQ1 2020 vs Q1 2021
(Source: CoStar)
Office vacancy rates have increased slightly throughout the region. Office leases
are for longer-term periods and will be monitored for changes.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
NorthernVirginia
SuburbanMaryland
District ofColumbia
Q1 2020
Q1 2021
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Change in Retail Vacancy RatesQ1 2020 vs Q1 2021
(Source: CoStar)
Retail vacancy rates have also increased slightly throughout the region. Retail
space is very susceptible to COVID-related closures and will also be monitored.
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
NorthernVirginia
SuburbanMaryland
District ofColumbia
Q1 2020
Q1 2021
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Air travel has recovered somewhat at the region’s three major airports since
April 2020 but remains much lower than 2019.
Air Travel
Source: COG
0
800
1,600
2,400
3,200
4,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
En
pla
ne
me
nts
in
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
2019 and 2020 Monthly Enplanements
at Washington/Baltimore Regional Airports
2019 2020
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Worksite Operations
96% of Worksites Shut Down or Reduced On-site Operation Either
Completely (81%) or Partially (15%) Since Coronavirus Pandemic
Began
All worksites shut
down/reduced operation,
81%
Some shut down/reduced
operation, 15%
All worksites remained
open/employees on site, 4%
Source: Commuter Connections 2020 Employer Telework Survey
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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Change in Daily Travel Since March 2020
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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66%
19%
9%6%
A lot Some A little None
Two-thirds of
respondents report their
daily travel habits have
changed a lot since the
beginning of the COVID-
19 pandemic. Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.
December, -20.4%November, -18.2%
October, -17.3%September, -18.5%
August, -19.2%July, -19.8%
June, -25.5%May, -37.5%
April, -50.5%March, -21.9%
February, 2.4%January, 3.8%
TPB Region - Monthly Average Percent Change from Equivalent 2019 Month
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Roadway Traffic Volumes: Region
Regional traffic volumes, which in April 2020 had dipped below 50% of 2019
volumes, had recovered to over 80% of 2019 volumes by July, and continued a
slow recovery through October 2020. Volumes, however, decreased once again
region-wide in November and again in December 2020.
Source: COG/TPB
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Metrorail and Metrobus Ridership
WMATA Regional Bus Ridership Workshop, November 17, 2020. COVID Ridership Trends, Diane Patterson.
Ridership decreased as a result of both reduced demand and reduced transit
capacity, underscoring the complex interrelationship of supply and demand on
transit. This contrasts to roadway volume decreases, which resulted from
demand reductions.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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Preferences of Current Teleworkers
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
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If given the choice to return to a work location
once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, would
you prefer to…?
Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.
9%
26%
65%
Return to work location
full-time
Telework full-time
Telework some days
and commute to work
location some days
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Considerations
• How will teleworking influence land use development and travel
patterns in the region?
• How will housing demand, including location, be influenced?
• Will the fundamental social and economic structure of the region’s
economy undergo change?
• What transportation investments are needed to meet demands of a
new normal AND meet ongoing demands of essential workers and
elements of the region that will go unchanged?
• How does the region balance the critical need to respond to new
short-term realities after the pandemic while continuing to make
long-term land use and transportation decisions for our
communities?
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
Timothy Canan, AICP
TPB Planning Data and Research Program Director
(202) 962-3280
[email protected] mwcog.org
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300
Washington, DC 20002