Impacts Of Future Lifestyles On Residential Recycling Programs

Canadian Waste Sector SymposiumMontreal, Quebec

November 9, 2011

Geoff Love, Love EnvironmentMaria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental

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Presentation OutlineLooking at the futureStart with the past and present

◦Brief look at how residential recycling has evolved

◦Recent changes to residential recycling materials

Research on future lifestylesWhat this means for residential

recycling system planningLove Environment

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Residential Recycling in 1980’s and 1990’s

Life used to be simple (in the old days!)Many original residential recycling programs

developed in Canada and the US late 1980’s and 1990’s

For 20 years, our efforts have focussed on:◦ Collecting paper, glass, metals, plastics◦ Expanding materials we collect◦ Stabilizing markets for processed materials◦ Increasing participation and capture of materials◦ Driving recovery up and driving costs down◦ Making the system more efficient

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Recycling Systems More Complex From 2005 On….

More materials added to residential recycling programs

Green Bin programs added to complexity of collectionMore single stream recycling systemsMRFs became larger and more complexMore user pay systems and container limitsLess garbage

◦ some communities moved to bi-weekly garbage collection◦ increased capture in recycling programs

Composition and amounts of recyclables stayed generally the same

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Things began to Change in the late 2000’sComposition of recycling stream began to

changeResidue rates increasedMarkets began to complain about quality of

materials from MRFsOperators began to notice a drop in ONP

(significant in some cases) and increase in OCC

With drop in paper and increase in convenience packaging, composition of recycling stream very different to a few years earlier – more items/picks; less weight/tonnes

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Implications of Changing Residential Recycling Material Composition on Recycling System

More plastics, less glass, less newspapers, more corrugated containers

Impacts on collection system◦ Less heavier material ◦ More lightweight and low density material◦ Truck will cube out sooner◦ Increases collection costs

MRF designs need to change to accommodate different material mix

Material revenues will be affected (reduced)Love Environment

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Toronto Recycling Material Revenues (to the mid 2000s)

71% to 75% of revenues from paper

10% of revenues from aluminum10% to 12% of revenues from

HDPE and PETIf paper continues to decrease,

impacts on revenues could be significant

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Background to Toronto Future Blue Bin Study (2010)

Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008

Significant drop in paper fibres collected 2009 vs 2008 (15%)

Lower paper tonnages had a significant impact on program revenues

10-year Business Plan was being developed Staff needed to understand materials and amounts

in the future Blue Bin for business planning Kelleher Environmental hired to carry out a “high

level” study to provide directional information

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Future Blue Bin Study Project Elements

Research future lifestylesResearch future packaging trendsCarry out in-store “packaging

audits”Develop projections of Blue Bin

tonnages and composition by material for 5 years and 10 years outLove Environment

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Predicting the Future Is ChallengingYou can try to put well researched facts into

sophisticated models, however, these are not always right…◦ Leisure society due to automation◦ “Paperless” society

Bigger picture – life is changing and will continue to change

The future is not “more of the same” – not just faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes, more TV channels, but something different

Large body of work by “futurists” used for this study

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Literature on the Future “I’ve seen the future brother, and its

murder” - Leonard CohenFuturists:

◦Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist; Forum for the Future; World Future Society, etc

More traditional literature: Canadian Food Trends to 2020 The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK) The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global) Twilight of the American Newspaper Demographic Trends, etc.

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Demographic TrendsAging Canadians

◦ we are living longerEvolving Households

◦ Smaller households◦ Fewer Children◦ More 1-person households◦ More urban dwellers◦ More multi-family units (>50% in Toronto)

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Lifestyle TrendsThe Internet …(has changed everything)Handheld and mobile devices changing the way we

live and communicate Changing meal patterns – fewer family dinners Shifting expenditures – more take away food Newer faces in Canada – larger variety of foods More shopping via internet – more food packagingConvenience is king…

• Re-sealable packages• More ready to eat meals - e.g. salads from grocery stores• Complicated packaging (to accommodate arthritic hands)• More plastic packaging• Smaller portion packaging

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The “Death” of Newspapers

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Ontario ONP Numbers Dropping Significantly 2007 to 2009

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Recycled Disposed

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Impacts Of Drop in ONP in MRFPrinted paper was 55% ONP; 45% other

paperNow 45% or less ONP; 55% or more other

paperHarder/impossible to create #8 News baleMRFs now produce #6 News baleMills are getting used to this change (as

they need the fibre)Used to think this was single stream

system issue – now understand its a more complex combination of factors at play

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Impacts of Internet on Residential RecyclingLess/smaller newspapersMore shopping by internetPurchases are delivered by

corrugated or boxboard container More OCC and OBB showing up in

residential recycling programs

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Growth in US Internet Sales (as % of total sales)

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Growth in Canadian Internet Sales ($ billion per year)

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12 Packaging Trends Which Will Impact Residential Recycling

1. Light-weighting2. Increase in multi-layer packaging3. Material substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al,

steel)4. More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plastic5. More ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in

thermoform plastic)6. SUPs (stand up pouches)7. Re-sealable packaging8. More smaller single serve packages9. More snack packaging10. Brand owner and retailer led initiative (Sustainable

packaging)11. Smart packaging – can tell when food is beginning to

decay12. Increase in bio-based packagingLove Environment

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Projected Residential Recycling Material Changes

Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over time ◦More plastic, less paper

Newsprint amounts will decrease over time Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009

OCC will increase over timeAmount of plastic packaging will increaseGlass will decreaseMetals will stay about the same

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Background To Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits

Identify extent to which consumer items purchased in Toronto stores were in packaging which is:◦Recyclable now or ◦Could be recycled in the future or◦Is unlikely to be recycled in the future

Look at packaging audit methods used elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010 circumstances

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Packaging Audit Approaches From Other Jurisdictions

“War on Waste” - UK Local Government Association◦purchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different

stores to compare packaging efficiency◦Repeated 2007, 2008, 2009

The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste Prevention (US)◦ 300 products in different packaging formats◦ Repeated 1995, 2007

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2010 Packaging AuditsPurchased 150 items in large grocery store:

◦Consumer Price Index list (60 items) – reflected typical “shopping basket” in the early Blue Box years

◦Use Less Stuff (ULS) US report list◦New products identified through store visit which

would not have been popular when CPI started◦New packaging formats which are gaining in

popularityWeighed empty package (each component) and

package when full of productLove Environment

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2010 Packaging AuditsCategorize each component as:

◦Recyclable now; ◦Recyclable in all plastic film

program; ◦Recyclable in all plastics program; ◦Not recyclable for foreseeable future

“Normalize” the data to take account of typical annual purchases of each product.

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Packaging Audit Results By Weight

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Packaging Audit ConclusionsAudit provides “snapshot” of the range of

packaging formatsMany packages are recycled in current

Toronto program“All film” program would increase diversionIncrease in thermoform PET for wide range

of products“All plastics” program would increase

diversionMany multi-layer packages which are not

recyclableLove Environment

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Comparison of Canadian Imports and Exports of PCF from 2000-2009

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Import Tonnes

Export Tonnes

Import Tonnes Export Tonnes

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We collect it…we just can use (all) of it

0

5

10

15

20

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Canadian Production

(Million Tonnes)

Canadian Con-sumption (Million

Tonnes)

Production MIL Tonnes Consumption MIL Tonnes

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Plastics Exports (in pounds)Plastic export graph from Jerry

Powell presentation at Halifax

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The China Factor: Growth in Paper Manufacturing Business (2000 to 2015)

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Implications Of Changing Composition on Business Planning

Future tonnages and composition impact on:◦Collection◦Processing◦Markets◦Revenues

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Future Scenarios• Based on Forum for the Future DEFRA

work in UK◦Modified for Canada/Toronto

Three Scenarios DevelopedStatus Quo – focus on regionalFast Changes – good economy,

increased oil prices, focus on globalSmaller World – bad economy, very

high energy prices, focus on localMost Likely Scenario - HybridLove Environment

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Recycling Material Tonnages in Toronto 2020 vs 2010 Baseline

15% reduction in weight per household of printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10 years◦ Reduction of 18% paper kg/hh/year◦17% increase in plastic kg/hh/year◦Amount of metals stays the same –

flat kg/hh/year◦Decrease of 50% glass kg/hh/year

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ConclusionsThe world is changing at a rapid rate:

◦Lifestyles are changing◦Packaging formats are changing

All of these changes impact on recycling business plans

Toronto Future Blue Bin Study was first to look at this issue and translate estimates into Business Planning

Need to “refresh” the lifestyle and packaging research annually or bi-annually to catch new trends and plan for their impacts

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Thank YouGeoff Love

◦loveenvironment@routcom.com

◦647-248-2500

Maria Kelleher◦maria@kellenv.com◦416-567-7439

Love Environment