Impacts of Drought in the Philippines - wamis.org Guzman.pdf · Impacts of Drought in the...
Transcript of Impacts of Drought in the Philippines - wamis.org Guzman.pdf · Impacts of Drought in the...
Impacts of Drought in thImpacts of Drought in the Philippinese Philippines
byby
Rosalina G. de GuzmanRosalina G. de Guzman22
1Presented at the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry
2Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, QuezonCity, Philippines
Department of Science and TechnologyDepartment of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
OutOutlineline
2. Impacts of Drought2. Impacts of Drought
4. Drought and Early Warning System4. Drought and Early Warning System
3. Adaptation Strategies 3. Adaptation Strategies
1. Background Information1. Background Information
Background informationBackground informationThe PhilippinesThe Philippines a natural disastera natural disaster--prone countryprone country
•• large number of islands (>7,000);large number of islands (>7,000);•• vast, irregular coastline (17,000 vast, irregular coastline (17,000 kmskms););•• an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9 an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9
crossing the country triggering floods/landslides);crossing the country triggering floods/landslides);•• abundant rainfall, yet some areas are semiabundant rainfall, yet some areas are semi--arid; andarid; and•• statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime
temperatures. temperatures.
Major drought years are associated Major drought years are associated with El Nino eventswith El Nino events
El Nino years are associated with less El Nino years are associated with less number of typhoonsnumber of typhoons
An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
y = 0.0109x - 0.2423
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06
Year
Tem
pera
ture
Ano
mal
y (°
C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
••Tropical Cyclones tracks in the WNPTropical Cyclones tracks in the WNP
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2006 1728 TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in WNP enter or formed in the PAR
ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
21
27
17
12
23
15
2119
2422 23
2123
14
20
17
21
16
201917
19
15
32
25
1618 17
11
16
1817
13
19.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Y E A R
An average of 19.6 or 20.0 tropical cyclones (all categories) entered/developed in the PAR and 8 or 9 made landfall/crossing the Philippines annually.
Reduced Stream flow
Declining Groundwater Level
Insufficient Water for Irrigation
Total Crop Loss
Limiting Water Supply for Farm Household Needs
Impacts to Agriculture Drought
The Philippine Agriculture
3.46 2.9
-6.6
6.49
4.563.95
3.14
4.81
2.24
3.88
-10
-5
0
5
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006
Ave. Growth rate = 3.69% (2001 – 2005)
Ave. Growth rate = 1.95% (1996 - 1999)
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
Pala
y P
rodu
ctio
n ( x
100
0 M
T)
El Nino
El NinoEl Nino El Nino
El Nino impacts on rice production
Impacts of droughtImpacts of drought• Crop failure
• Reduced irrigated areas
State of calamity in La Union Philippine Star Jul 31, 2007
Angat water supply down to critical level
Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968--1998) for 1998) for AngatAngatreservoir in Luzon during selected El Nireservoir in Luzon during selected El Niñño years (million cubic meters).o years (million cubic meters).
Month1991-1992 1997-1998
Actual Normal% of
Normal Actual Normal% of
Normal
October 68.0 304 22 90.2 304 30
November 181.0 291 62 43.4 291 15
December 113.0 211 53 86.9 211 41
January 62.0 101 61 52.0 101 51
February 29.0 57 51 28.0 57 49
March 15.0 51 29 20.9 51 41
Total 468.0 1015 46 321.4 1015 31.6
IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLYIMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY(water shortage)(water shortage)
• Less water for domestic use
• Loss of target collection / income
• Additional operational cost
- Occurrence of water-borne diseases
• Water quality problems
IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage)IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage)
• Loss of target collection to NIA (irrigation Service Fee)
• Reduction of farmers income
• Opportunity loss for NIA
• Increase in the no. of crimes
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Prod
uctio
n/H
arve
sted
Are
a
Production (M T) Area Harvested (ha)
Irrigated Palay Production in AMRIS
1 – First Semester Harvest (Nov – Mar cropping season/dry) 2 – Second Semester Harvest (Jun – Oct cropping season/wet)
1998 (1) - 86.60 %
1998 (2) - 43.94 %
Impacts on Irrigation
IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage)IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage)
• Opportunity losses
• Increase in the use of other sources of power such as coal, thermal, etc.
Impacts on Hydropower
58.958.9--50.5450.5435.2235.2285.7685.7633
64.764.7--50.4850.4827.5027.5077.9877.9822
74.174.1--98.9898.9834.6134.61133.59133.591119981998
66.066.0--92.1792.1747.4447.44139.61139.6144
24.424.4--20.9220.9264.8464.8485.7685.7633
26.426.4--20.6020.6057.3857.3877.9877.982219971997
% Reduction% ReductionDifferenceDifferenceActual Actual Generation Generation
(GWH)(GWH)
1010--Yr. Ave Yr. Ave (GWH)(GWH)
QuarterQuarterYearYear
622,106 mt of rice production loss and 565,240 mt of corn amounting to P 3 B; water shortages; forest fires and human health impacts
About 70 % of the Philippines experienced severe drought; about 292,000 hectares of rice and corn area completely damaged
8. 1997-1998
P4.09 Billion agri-cultural losses; 20% shortfall in Metro Manila water supply
Severe drought affected Mindanao, Central and Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley; affected agricultural areas of 461,800 hectares
7. 1991-1992
Estimated 5x105 mt of rice and corn production losses; hydropower gene-ration loss of P348 M; 10% cutback in water production in Metro Manila
Drought affected Cagayan Valley, Panay Island, Guimaras, Palawan and Southern Mindanao; affected rice and corn area totalled 283,562 hectares; major multipurpose water reservoirs reduced inflow
6. 1989-1990Oct. 1989 -March 1990
Estimated hydro energy generation loss was P671 MSevere drought affected mainland of Luzon, Central Visayas and Western Mindanao
Apr. 1987 -Sept. 1987
Estimated agricultural damages of P47 M Severe drought affected Bicol Region, Southern Negros, Cebu and Western Mindanao
5. 1986-1987Oct. 1986 -March 1987
Rice and corn pro- duction loss of 6.4x105 mt; insurance claims amounted to P38 M; hydropower generation loss was P316 M
Western and Central Luzon, Southern TagalogProvinces, Northern Visayas, Bohol and Western Mindanao
Moderate to severe drought affected most of Luzon, Negros Occidental and Iloilo
4. 1982-1983Oct. 1982 -March 1983Apr. 1983 -Sept. 1983
Total loss of 7.5x105 mt of rice and corn productionThe whole of Mindanao except Davao3. 1977-1978
Total loss of 6.3x105 mt of rice and corn productionCentral Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao2. 1972-1973
Total of 5x105 mtof rice and corn production
Moderate to severe drought over most of the Philippines with Bicol Region as most severely affected
1. 1968-1969
DamagesAreas AffectedDate of Occurrence
List of Drought Events in the Philippines During the Period 1968 - 1998
What can be done?What can be done?Other Institutional Responses /Interventions NDCC to proactively address the impending issue on water crisis
National agencies and LGUs to work together to monitor ground water levels
Dry spell/Drought Mitigation Plan (risk & impact assessment, mitigation & response strategies)
Crop insurance
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
1.1. Utilization of drought andUtilization of drought andsubmergence tolerant rice varieties submergence tolerant rice varieties (2008(2008--dry season) dry season)
GMAGMA--RICERICE
2. Use of improved crop varieties that are resistant to pest and diseases(2006 – 2007)
Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR) and PhilRice
Bureau of Agricultural Research and CLSU
P 5.0 MSource: BSWM
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
3. Sustainable System of Irrigated Agriculture (SSIA) P 50.0 M (2008‐2010)National Irrigation AdministrationDepartment of Environment and Natural Resources
Source: BSWM
4. LOCALIZED IRRIGATION (DRIP IRRIGATION – water is applied by wetting only a part of the soil in the field through emitter.
Highly efficient as water is conveyed through a pipe system;
Water is applied directly to each plant such that only the soil near each plant is wetted;
Facilitates fertigation and thus, could increase yield by 20% to 70%
Suitable in steep and undulating slopes, and sandy soilsDRIP IRRIGATION
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
Source: BSWM
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
5. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated farmlands
2006 – 2010
Storage Dams
Diversion Dams
Source: BSWM
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
6. Intensify establishment of rainwater harvesting structures (e.g. SWIP)
P 1.5 B (2008 – 2010)
Bureau of Soils and Water management
7. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources 7
Source: BSWM
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
8. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated farmlands
2006 – 2010
Storage Dams
Diversion Dams
Source: BSWM
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies
9. Intensify establishment of rainwater harvesting structures (e.g. SWIP)
P 1.5 B (2008 – 2010)
Bureau of Soils and Water management
10. Monitoring, provision of shallow tube wells, and fingerling dispersal to vulnerable areas with high impact to Inland aquaculture P 35.5 M Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources
Impacts of Extreme Dry Condition
A. Rainfed agricultural areas will be severely affected
B. Potential reduction in stream flows and water yield of the different water resources;
• Small streams and creeks• Small run-of-the-river irrigation systems• Farm ponds, small water reservoirs, and lakes• Large rivers• Large and major reservoirs• Groundwater source; unconfined and confined shallow
aquifers, deep aquifers
C. Potential increase in crop water requirements due to increase in crop evapo-transpiration; reduction in irrigated areas
Drought Early Warning and Monitoring SystemDrought Early Warning and Monitoring System
DATA BASES HISTORICAL NORMALS
EPISODIC EVENTS
INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOURCES
ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES AND
PROCEDURES
NEAR REAL-TIME METEOROLOGICAL DATA
CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
END USERS
1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management2. National Disaster Coordinating Council3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and
Feed Grains4. El Niño / La Niña Task Force5. Media6. General Public and other End-Users
For more Information, VISIT us at
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
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