Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim...
-
Upload
mackenzie-simpson -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
3
Transcript of Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim...
![Page 1: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas
Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin DowUniversity of South Carolina
Climate Prediction Application Science WorkshopChapel Hill, NC06 March 2008
![Page 2: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Evaluating ENSO Impacts in the Carolinas
Stakeholders’ perceptions
of ENSO impacts
Discerning and
communicating
variability of ENSO
expression
![Page 3: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Regional assessment• North and South Carolina• COOP and USGS
– 1950 – 2004
• Monthly total precipitation and streamflow• Assign ENSO phase by month (CPC)
– Cool (La Niña), neutral, warm (El Niño)
• Assign AMO phase by year– Warm – 1950-1963, 1995-2004– Cool – 1964-1994
• Each month assigned to a season– Winter = DJF, Spring = MAM, etc.
• SAS Proc GENMOD– Gamma distribution– Significance at p ≤ .05
![Page 4: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
ENSO and AMO analysis
ENSO phase AMO both AMO cool AMO warm Coastal effectWinter W/C
W/NN/C
Spring W/CW/NN/C
Summer W/CW/NN/C
Autumn W/CW/NN/C
![Page 5: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Winter – AMO n/a
Precipitation Stream flow
![Page 6: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Winter – AMO cool
Precipitation Stream flow
![Page 7: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Winter – AMO warm
Precipitation Stream flow
![Page 8: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
ENSO and AMO analysis• Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation
and streamflow– El Niño > Neutral > La Niña
![Page 9: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
ENSO and AMO analysis• Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation and
streamflow– El Niño > Neutral > La Niña
• Spring – similar relationships– Not as strong as winter
• Summer – significant precipitation only– Both El Niño, La Niña > Neutral when AMO cool– Both El Niño, La Niña < Neutral when AMO warm
• Autumn – both precipitation and streamflow– Greater regional differences – interior v coastal– Differences between precipitation and streamflow
![Page 10: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Influence of tropical storms
![Page 11: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Dams R Us
• Analysis of only unregulated stations does not significantly alter the interpretation of the results.
• Suggests actual inflow to reservoirs impacts their operations as much or more than weather.
![Page 12: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Uses of these results/methods• Hydrologic modeling
– Effect of interannual and multidecadal phase – Both short- and long-term scenarios
• Value of subregional analysis for water management and planning– Climate driven interannual weather patterns do vary
over the study area
• Provides another perspective of the impacts of land use change
• Streamflow is more important than precipitation for some sectors– Analysis may provide a basis for seasonal
differentiation among these sources of water
![Page 13: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Regional drought implications
• Prior knowledge that La Niña is associated with dry winter conditions in the southeast
• These results show this effect is associated with the warm phase AMO
• Providing AMO and ENSO phases with monitor reports and seasonal forecasts would make them more information rich
![Page 14: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Drought implications example
• Telephone surveys of horticultural industry in NC/SC
• “If drought continues residential planting will be minimal due to watering restrictions”
• Planting decisions are made months in advance– Influenced by an indirect
effect
• Some do their own monitoring to stay abreast of local conditions
![Page 15: Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin Dow University of South Carolina Climate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551461c9550346414e8b5956/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Additional acknowledgements
• Jinyoung Rhee, PhD – USC Geography• Graduate students
– Kirsten Lackstrom, Richard Murphy, Sara Yorty
• Undergraduate students– Lauren Felker, Grandon Wilson