Impact’Assessment’of’High’Speed’Rail’Syste...

Impact Assessment of High Speed Rail System in Korea

Sep. 30th, 2013

Dr. Jin Young Park Director

Korean Railway System Energy & CO² ReducKon of High Speed Railway Socio-‐economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

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Korean Railway System Energy & CO² reducKon of High Speed Railway Socio-‐economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

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1. Railway Development during Economic Development Period (’60s~’80s) 1) The focus of the transport policy changed from railway to road §  Decreasing railway investment during Five -‐Yearly Economy Development Plan

Period * Share of railway investment : 61% → 29% → 22%→ 12%→ 10%

15% 12% 14% 10% 8% 8%

0% 4% 3%

16% 31%

1%

61%

29% 29% 22%

12%

10%

17%

52% 52% 48% 47%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1st('62~'66) 2nd('67~'71) 3rd('72~'76) 4th('77~'81) 5th('82~'86) 6th('87~'91)

Road

Rail

Metro

Water

Air

<Transport Infrastructure Investment>

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2. Expansion of Seoul Metropolitan Railway Lines (’80~’00) 1) New railway projects in conjuncKon with the new town development policy §  Support of new town development §  Improvement of commuTng traffic condiTons connected Seoul §  Gwacheon line, Ilsan line, Bundang line (New residenTal ciTes) opened in 1990

s §  New bundang line constructed by private investment & land development cha

rges -‐ Driverless operaTon system

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3. Expansion of High Speed Rail Service Area (’90~) 1) ConstrucTon of Gyeongbu (Seoul~Busan) high speed railway §  Relieve severe road congesKon in Gyeongbu Corridor -‐ ConcentraTon in Gyeongbu corridor : PopulaTon 65%, GDP 74%

§  HSR plan included in the NaTonal Plan(’80s) §  Technical Survey (’89~’91) §  HSR ConstrucTon (’92)

§  1st stage open(2004) -‐ New line 238.6km -‐ ExisTng line 171.2km §  2nd stage open(2010) -‐ 417.5km (New line 368.5km) -‐ Under construcTon (unTl 2014)

Gyeongbu HSR

Legend

Seoul

Cheonan

Daegu

Daejeon

Gyeongju

Busan

Existing Line

Osong

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4. Current Status 1) Railway Facility Size(2011) §  Track length : 3135→3635km §  Double track : 23 →59.7% §  ElectrificaTon : 14→71.6% * Except urban railway

2) Railway Speed §  1900s 30Km/h : Steam locomoTve §  1950s 100km/h : Diesel locomoTve §  1980s 140km/h : Saemaeul train §  2004 300km/h : KTX(High Speed Train) §  2010 350km/h : KTX2 §  2015 400km/h : HEMU

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1980 1990 2000 2004 2010

Route Length Double Track ElectrificaTon

•  Project Period : 6 Years (’07.7~’13.7) •  Max. speed : 430km/h •  Distributed Power System

HEMU – 430X

Korean Railway System Energy & CO² RducKon of High Speed Railway Socio-‐economic Impact of High Speed Railway Discussions

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1. Plan for KTX Network (2020) Link between major ciTes within 90 minutes Access Tme to KTX staTons within 30 minutes Benefit range from KTX : 84% of populaTon, 82% of naTonal territory

9 <Plan�� for�� KTX�� network>��

2. Impact Assessment methodology Time & cost saving : can be directly measured by number of passengers Energy consumpTon & emissions : integrated approach with other transpo

rt modes for specific origin-‐desTnaTon -‐  Energy consumpTon & emission unit per person-‐km of different mode

s (car, convenTonal railway, air, high speed railway) -‐  MulTply of unit with number of traffic by each modes Socio-‐economic benefit : regional study of before & aler -‐  Business acTvity -‐  Land price -‐  PopulaTon change

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KTX Auto Express Bus Airplane

Seoul ~

Daegu

Time (min) raTo

106 (1.00)

228 (2.15)

240 (2.26) -‐

Cost (Won) raTo

42,950 (1.00)

64,100 (1.49)

21,950 (0.51) -‐

Seoul ~

Busan

Time (min) raTo

150 (1.00)

302 (2.01)

317 (2.11)

164 (1’09)

Cost (Won) raTo

53,200 (1.00)

89,100 (1.67)

29,250 (0.55)

78,500 (1.48)

3. Direct Effect : Travel Time & Cost

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4. Energy consumpKon : French Data

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DescripKon Liter/person-‐km Regular inter-‐city railway 0.044

TGV 0.008 Car Min. 0.144

Max. 0.217 Bus 0.049

Air Min. 0.123 Max. 0.205

Source: ADEME, France

1. Energy consumpKon : during 2004~2008

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DescripKon Amount Seoul-‐Busan Min. 813

Max. 1,243 Seoul-‐Daegu Min. 123

Max. 232 Seoul-‐Gwangju Min. 218

Max. 332 Seoul-‐Mokpo Min. 29

Max. 39 total Min. 1,184

Max. 1,848

Unit : million Liter


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DescripKon Amount Seoul-‐Busan Min. 1,260

Max. 1,927 Seoul-‐Daegu Min. 191



Max. 60 total Min. 1,835

Max. 2,865 - Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter

Unit : Million USD

2. Energy consumpKon : Korean Data

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DescripKon Liter/person-‐km RaKo with KTX Car 0.067 10.47

Inter-‐city Bus 0.021 3.26 KTX 0.006 1.00

Inter-‐city Railway (Diesel) 0.023 3.50 CommuTng Railway (Diesel) 0.032 5.04

Metro 0.006 0.96

Source: Korea Railway Corporation, 2009


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DescripKon Amount

Seoul-‐Busan 647

Seoul-‐Daegu 152

Seoul-‐Gwangju 142

Seoul-‐Mokpo 8

total 950

Unit : million Liter


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DescripKon Amount

Seoul-‐Busan 931

Seoul-‐Daegu 219


Seoul-‐Mokpo 12

total 1,368

Unit : Million USD

- Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter

3. CO² ReducKon : French Data

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DescripKon Kg/person-‐km Regular inter-‐city railway 0.017

TGV 0.007 Car Min. 0.047

Max. 0.071 Bus 0.017

Air Min. 0.039 Max. 0.066

Source: ADEME, France

3. CO² ReducKon : during 2004~2008

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Max. 364 Seoul-‐Daegu Min. 3



Max. 9 total Min. 298

Max. 513

Unit : thousand ton


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Max. 13 Seoul-‐Daegu Min. 0.1


Max. 4 Seoul-‐Mokpo Min. 0.2

Max. 0.3 total Min. 10

Max. 18 - Value of CO² is esKmated as 35 USD per ton.

Unit : Million USD

4. CO² ReducKon : Korean Data

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DescripKon g/person-‐km RaKo with KTX Car 168.2 6.3

Inter-‐city Bus 55.7 2.1 KTX 26.9 1.0

Inter-‐city Railway (Diesel) 66.4 2.5 CommuTng Railway (Diesel) 95.5 3.6

Metro 25.9 1.0

Source: Korea Railway Corporation, 2009


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DescripKon Amount

Seoul-‐Busan 270

Seoul-‐Daegu + 231


Seoul-‐Mokpo 13

total 189

Unit : Thousand ton


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DescripKon Amount

Seoul-‐Busan 9

Seoul-‐Daegu + 8

Seoul-‐Gwangju 5

Seoul-‐Mokpo 1

total 7

Unit : Million USD

- Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter

5. Environmental Cost ReducKon : Korean Data

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DescripKon Korean won/person-‐km

Car 45.4

Inter-‐city Bus 14.07

KTX 0.0

Inter-‐city Railway (Diesel) 13.62

AviaTon 54.03

Source : Ministry of Environment, 2007

5. Environmental Cost ReducKon : during 2004~2008

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DescripKon Amount

Seoul-‐Busan 362

Seoul-‐Daegu 92

Seoul-‐Gwangju 87

Seoul-‐Mokpo 12

total 553

Unit : Million USD


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1. Inter-‐city transport mode share 2003 2011 feature

Seoul -

Daegu

- Airplane: 19%→0%

- KTX: 59.7%

Seoul -

Busan

- Airplane: 49→19%

- KTX: 64.5%

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1. Transport hub of the KTX staKon l  KTX East-‐Daegu staTon -‐ Transport hub of the surrounding region (Seoul~Daegu traffic volume: 7.6 million → 11.9 million) -‐ Transferable distance 60~70km

Seoul

Daegu

Pohang

Seoul

Daegu

7.6 million Trip 11.9 million Trip

<2003> <2008>

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Pohang

Gyeongsan Gyeongsan

2. Relief of populaKon concentraKon to capital region

11,012 6,801

2,523

7,009 118

674 592

<Annual net-migration (2000~2004) >

8,645 5,617

3,085

7,009 202

568 428

<Annual net-migration(2004~2008) > Source: Statistics Korea

l  Decreasing emigraTon from the KTX staTon-‐based ciTes

Busan(12,000 persons → 9,000 persons), Daegu(7,400 persons → 6,000 persons)

l  Decreasing trend of populaTon concentraTon in capital region

(Daegu → Busan)

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3. New economic acKviKes using KTX : ConvenKon & Commerce l  ConvenTon and commerce around KTX StaTon

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153

11,447

2005년 2011년

MeeKng Frequency No. of Users

2011년 2005년

4,012

341,534

Rent�� Profit(mil.�� won)

17 286

870

1,245 1,511 1,575

2,098

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005년 2006년 2007년 2008년 2009년 2010년 2011년

Source: Korail

2011년 2005년 2011 2005 2011 2005

2006 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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4. New economic acKviKes using KTX : InternaKonal conference

Share of InternaTonal Seminar of Busan : 6.4%(2003) → 20.9%(2010)

SOURCE : ‘MICE Industry Statistics’, KOREA TOURISM ORGANIZATION, Annually

경부축 호남축

158

14 6 19 1

191

18 15

82

9

343

80

28

224

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서울 대전 대구 부산 광주

2003년 2006년 2010년

Gyoungbu KTX line Honam KTX line

Daejeon Daegu Busan Seoul Gwangju

2003 2006 2010

5. New Economic AcKviKes : whole sale and retail industry l  Rapid increase of Busan city’s sale

l  Straw effect to Seoul is not clear

32 Source: The Korea Transport Institute, 「2011 KTX Economic Development Study」 , 2011.

Wholesale & R

etail

(Daegu VS. Gyeon

gbuk)

EducaKon Servi

ce

(Gwangju VS. Geo

nnam)

Enterprise Serv

ice1)

(Daejun VS. Chun

gnam)

(Number)

260 306 411 163 162 257

2003 2004 2011

대구 경북

115 169 241 45 92 271

2003 2005 2011

대전 충남

6 9 21 3 9 11

2003 2005 2011

광주 전남

(Number)

(Number)

Daegu Gyeongbuk

Gwangju Geonnam

Daejeon Chungnam

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NaKonal growth rate 0.22 2.04 12.35 16.07 12.97 15.44 10.96 8.88 -‐1.48

Large ciKes 0.26 2.26 15.39 14.38 8.67 15.05 12.26 10.03 -‐1.73

Small and medium ciKes 0.61 1.81 9.15 19.62 19.15 15.85 9.77 7.73 -‐1.28

KTX based-‐ciK

es

Average 2.65 0.80 4.88 30.53 33.10 35.88 14.20 6.95 -‐0.21

ExisKng staKon -‐4.04 -‐1.79 0.37 6.66 6.12 11.42 6.97 3.90 -‐1.28

New staKon 4.88 1.66 6.39 38.48 42.09 44.03 16.60 7.97 0.14

Opened in 2004 -‐0.38 0.29 7.85 25.54 22.34 19.66 7.99 5.44 -‐1.01

Expected opening in 2

010 5.68 1.31 1.91 35.52 43.85 52.10 20.40 8.46 0.58

Source: Korea Real Estate Research Institute (2009)

(unit : %)

6. Change of Land Price in KTX staKon-‐based CiKes l  KTX staTon-‐based ciTes: two Tmes more than naTonal growth rate

l  New KTX staTon-‐based ciTes: five Tmes more than exisTng staTon-‐based


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1. Railway can reduce energy consumpKon & CO² l  RelaTvely low energy consumpTon & CO² emission than car or air

3. Do we have impact assessment model for railway? l  Current B/C model can not include wide impact of railway system

l  Time/cost saving, energy/environmental impact

2. Railway system is relaKvely expensive l  Financial/technical resource

l  Feasibility study(?)

Thank you. ([email protected])

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