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TheImpactoftheInternetonInstitutionsintheFutureTechnologyexpertsandstakeholderssaytheinternetwilldrivemorechangeinbusinessesandgovernmentagenciesby2020,makingthemmoreresponsiveandefficient.Buttherearepowerfulbureaucraticforcesthatwillpushbackagainstsuchtransformationandprobablydrawoutthetimeline.Expectcontinuingtensionindisruptivetimes.

JannaQuitneyAnderson,ElonUniversityLeeRainie,PewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProjectMarch31,2010

PewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProjectAninitiativeofthePewResearchCenter1615LSt.,NWSuite700Washington,D.C.200362024194500|pewinternet.org

ThispublicationispartofaPewResearchCenterseriesthatcapturespeoplesexpectationsforthefutureoftheinternet,intheprocesspresentingasnapshotofcurrentattitudes.Findoutmoreat:http://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Futureoftheinternet.aspxandhttp://www.imaginingtheinternet.org.

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OverviewByanoverwhelmingmargin,technologyexpertsandstakeholdersparticipatinginasurveyfieldedbythePewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversitysImaginingtheInternetCenterbelievethatinnovativeformsofonlinecooperationcouldresultinmoreefficientandresponsiveforprofitfirms,nonprofitorganizations,andgovernmentagenciesbytheyear2020.Ahighlyengagedsetofrespondentsthatincluded895technologystakeholdersandcriticsparticipatedintheonline,optinsurvey.Inthiscanvassingofadiversenumberofexperts,72%agreedwiththestatement:

By2020,innovativeformsofonlinecooperationwillresultinsignificantlymoreefficientandresponsivegovernments,business,nonprofits,andothermainstreaminstitutions.

Some26%agreedwiththeoppositestatement,whichposited:

By2020,governments,businesses,nonprofitsandothermainstreaminstitutionswillprimarilyretainfamiliar20thcenturymodelsforconductofrelationshipswithcitizensandconsumersonlineandoffline.

Whiletheiroverallassessmentanticipatesthathumansuseoftheinternetwillpromptinstitutionalchange,manyelaboratedwithwrittenexplanationsthatexpressedsignificantconcernsoverorganizationsresistancetochange.Theycitedfearsthatbureaucraciesofallstripesespeciallygovernmentagenciescanresistoutsideencouragementtoevolve.Somewrotethatthelevelofchangewillaffectdifferentkindsofinstitutionsatdifferenttimes.Theconsensusamongthemwasthatbusinesseswilltransformthemselvesmuchmorequicklythanpublicandnonprofitagencies.Manyselectedthechangeoption,butsaidtheywerenotsuredrasticchangewilloccurinorganizationsbythe2020timeframe.Theysaidthemostsignificantimpactoftheinternetoninstitutionswilloccurafterthat.Somenotedthischangewillcausetensionanddisruption.Therespondentswhoaddressedtheissueofinnovativeformsofonlinecooperationsometimesreferredtoactivitiesbetweenpeopleandinstitutionsthatwerepostbureaucratic.Theyarguedthatpeoplecouldusetheinternetandcellphonestocreatealternative,unbureaucraticstructurestosolveproblemsthroughnetworkstructuredcommunities.

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SurveyMethod:TensionpairsweredesignedtoprovokedetailedelaborationsThismaterialwasgatheredinthefourthFutureoftheInternetsurveyconductedbythePewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversitysImaginingtheInternetCenter.Thesurveysareconductedthroughonlinequestionnairestowhichaselectedgroupofexpertsandthehighlyengagedinternetpublichavebeeninvitedtorespond.Thesurveyspresentpotentialfuturescenariostowhichrespondentsreactwiththeirexpectationsbasedoncurrentknowledgeandattitudes.Youcanviewdetailedresultsfromthe2004,2006,2008and2010surveyshere:http://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Futureoftheinternet.aspxandhttp://www.elon.edu/eweb/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtml.ExpandedresultsarepublishedintheFutureoftheInternetseriespublishedbyCambriaPress.RespondentstotheFutureoftheInternetIVsurvey,fieldedfromDec.2,2009toJan.11,2010,wereaskedtoconsiderthefutureoftheinternetconnectedworldbetweennowand2020andthelikelyinnovationthatwilloccur.Theywereaskedtoassess10differenttensionpairseachpairofferingtwodifferent2020scenarioswiththesameoverallthemeandoppositeoutcomesandtheywereaskedtoselecttheonemostlikelychoiceoftwostatements.Thetensionpairsandtheiralternativeoutcomeswereconstructedtoreflectpreviousstatementsaboutthelikelyevolutionoftheinternet.TheywerereviewedandeditedbythePewInternetAdvisoryBoard.Resultsarebeingreleasedinfourvenuesoverthecourseof2010.Theresultsthatarereportedhereareresponsestoatensionpairthatrelatestothefutureimpactoftheinternetoninstitutionsandorganizations.Resultstofiveothertensionpairsrelatingtotheinternetandtheevolutionofintelligence;readingandtherenderingofknowledge;identityandauthentication;gadgetsandapplications;andthecorevaluesoftheinternetwerereleasedearlierin2010atthemeetingoftheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience.Theycanbereadat:http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2010/FutureoftheInternetIV.aspx.AdditionalresultswillbereleasedattheFutureoftheWebconference(http://futureweb2010.wordpress.com/)andthe2010WorldFutureSocietyconference(http://www.wfs.org/meetings.htm).Pleasenotethatthissurveyisprimarilyaimedatelicitingfocusedobservationsonthelikelyimpactandinfluenceoftheinternetnotontherespondentschoicesfromthepairsofpredictivestatements.Manytimeswhenrespondentsvotedforonescenariooveranother,theyrespondedintheirelaborationthatbothoutcomesarelikelytoadegreeorthatanoutcomenotofferedwouldbetheirtruechoice.Surveyparticipantswereinformedthatitislikelyyouwillstrugglewithmostorallofthechoicesandsomemaybeimpossibletodecide;wehopethatwillinspireyoutowriteresponsesthatwillexplainyouranswerandilluminateimportantissues.

Expertswerelocatedintwoways.First,severalthousandwereidentifiedinanextensivecanvassingof scholarly, government, andbusinessdocuments from theperiod19901995 to seewhohadventuredpredictionsaboutthefutureimpactoftheinternet.Severalhundredofthemparticipated

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in the first three surveys conducted by Pew Internet and Elon University, and they wererecontactedforthissurvey.Second,expertparticipantswerehandpickedduetotheirpositionsasstakeholdersinthedevelopmentoftheinternet.

Herearesomeoftherespondents:ClayShirky,EstherDyson,DocSearls,NicholasCarr,SusanCrawford,DavidClark,JamaisCascio,PeterNorvig,CraigNewmark,HalVarian,HowardRheingold,AndreasKluth,JeffJarvis,AndyOram,KevinWerbach,DavidSifry,DanGillmor,MarcRotenberg,StoweBoyd,JohnPike,AndrewNachison,AnthonyTownsend,EthanZuckerman,TomWolzien,StephenDownes,RebeccaMacKinnon,JimWarren,SandraBrahman,BarryWellman,SethFinkelstein,JerryBerman,TiffanyShlain,andStewartBaker.

Therespondentsremarksreflecttheirpersonalpositionsontheissuesandarenotthepositionsoftheiremployers,howevertheirleadershiprolesinkeyorganizationshelpidentifythemasexperts.Followingisarepresentativelistofsomeoftheinstitutionsatwhichrespondentsworkorhaveaffiliations:Google,Microsoft.CiscoSystems,Yahoo!,Intel,IBM,HewlettPackard,EricssonResearch,Nokia,NewYorkTimes,OReillyMedia,ThomsonReuters,Wiredmagazine,TheEconomistmagazine,NBC,RANDCorporation,VerizonCommunications,LindenLab,InstitutefortheFuture,BritishTelecom,QwestCommunications,Raytheon,Adobe,Meetup,Craigslist,Ask.com,Intuit,MITRECorporation

DepartmentofDefense,DepartmentofState,FederalCommunicationsCommission,DepartmentofHealthandHumanServices,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,SocialSecurityAdministration,GeneralServicesAdministration,BritishOfCom,WorldWideWebConsortium,NationalGeographicSociety,BentonFoundation,LinuxFoundation,AssociationofInternetResearchers,Internet2,InternetSociety,InstitutefortheFuture,SantaFeInstitute,YankeeGroup

HarvardUniversity,MIT,YaleUniversity,GeorgetownUniversity,OxfordInternetInstitute,PrincetonUniversity,CarnegieMellonUniversity,UniversityofPennsylvania,UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley,ColumbiaUniversity,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,CornellUniversity,UniversityofNorthCarolina,PurdueUniversity,DukeUniversity,SyracuseUniversity,NewYorkUniversity,NorthwesternUniversity,OhioUniversity,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,FloridaStateUniversity,UniversityofKentucky,UniversityofTexas,UniversityofMaryland,UniversityofKansas,UniversityofIllinois,BostonCollege,UniversityofTulsa,UniversityofMinnesota,ArizonaState,MichiganStateUniversity,UniversityofCaliforniaIrvine,GeorgeMasonUniversity,UniversityofUtah,BallStateUniversity,BaylorUniversity,UniversityofMassachusettsAmherst,UniversityofGeorgia,WilliamsCollege,andUniversityofFlorida.

Whilemanyrespondentsareatthepinnacleofinternetleadership,someofthesurveyrespondentsareworking in the trenchesofbuilding theWeb.Mostof thepeople in this lattersegmentofresponderscametothesurveybyinvitationbecausetheyareontheemaillistofthePewInternet&AmericanLifeProjectorareotherwiseknowntotheProject.Theyarenotnecessarilyopinionleaders for their industriesorwellknown futurists,but it is strikinghowmuch theirviewsweredistributedinwaysthatparalleledthosewhoarecelebratedinthetechnologyfield.

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Whileawiderangeofopinionfromexperts,organizations,andinterestedinstitutionswassought,thissurveyshouldnotbetakenasarepresentativecanvassingofinternetexperts.Bydesign,thissurveywasanoptin,selfselectingeffort.Thatprocessdoesnotyieldarandom,representativesample.Thequantitativeresultsarebasedonanonrandomonlinesampleof895internetexpertsandother internetusers, recruitedbyemail invitation,Twitter,orFacebook.Since thedataarebased on a nonrandom sample, amargin of error cannot be computed, and results are notprojectabletoanypopulationotherthantherespondentsinthissample.

Manyoftherespondentsareinternetveterans50%havebeenusingtheinternetsince1992orearlier,with11%activelyinvolvedonlinesince1982orearlier.Whenaskedfortheirprimaryareaofinternetinterest,15%ofthesurveyparticipantsidentifiedthemselvesasresearchscientists;14%asbusinessleadersorentrepreneurs;12%asconsultantsorfuturists,12%asauthors,editorsorjournalists;9%astechnologydevelopersoradministrators;7%asadvocatesoractivistusers;3%aspioneersororiginators;2%aslegislators,politiciansorlawyers;and25%specifiedtheirprimaryareaofinterestasother.Theanswerstheserespondentsgavetothequestionsaregivenintwocolumns.