Impact of Technological Trends, Scenario Planning the Next Technological Paradigm

Impact of Technological Trends Scenario Planning the Next Technological Paradigm

Eric Watson & Erdem Tokmakoglu Yonsei Graduate School of International Studies

14.11.2014

NOV

14

2

Presentation TimelineFu t u re Tre n d s

2Revolutions

3Technologies

6Methodology

7 91 4 5 8Scenario One Scenario Two Scenario Three Scenario Four Strategies Conclusion

3Paradigm Shift

“A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method

exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.”

Ray Kurzweil

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4Past Technological Revolutions

“…Gunpowder blew up the knightly class the compass discovered the world market and founded the colonies and the printing press was the instrument of Protestantism and the regeneration of science in general; the most powerful lever for creating the intellectual prerequisites.”

Karl Marx

First Industrial

Revolution

Second Industrial

Revolution

Third Industrial

Revolution?

Revolutions Technologies Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 CONCLUSIONMethodology Scenario 3 Strategies

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First Industrial Revolution 5


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Second Industrial Revolution 6


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7Technologies Driving The Next Paradigm Shift

What will drive the future?

3D Printing & Robotics

Big Data, AI & IoT

Renewable Energies


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10Big Data, AI & IoT


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11Renewable Energy


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12


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“…must show how a solution is produced by the interactions of people each of whom possesses only partial knowledge.”

F. A. Hayek

“When it comes to mobilizing human capability, communities outperform bureaucracies.”

Gary Hamel

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Platform CreatorsExisting shareholders of capital or general shareholders with the largest amount of ownership (from now platform creators) are the ones with the

existing lobby power or capital leading this knowledge of being.

14


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Platform CreatorsExisting shareholders of capital or general shareholders with the largest amount of ownership (from now platform creators) are the ones with the

existing lobby power or capital leading this knowledge of being.

15Methodology

“A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of then (sic) world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future can unfold.”

Forecast Prediction Scenario Planning


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16Methodology


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17Scenario Planning: Creation


Decide a Time Horizon

Identify Givens & Drivers

Deciding Endpoints

Scenario Narratives

Scenario Planning

Outcomes

1

2

3

4

5

6

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18Scenario Planning: Impact of Technological Trends


Hayek’s Knowledge of Being

Fallacies of Central Planning

Free Market Mechanisms

Brain Power Cannot be Replicated

Maximize Intellectual Capacity

Efficient Education

Inefficient Education

Open Access to Technology

Restricted Access to Technology

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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Decentralized Production Means O O X X

Decentralized Energy Means O O X X

Data Neturality O O X X

Lax Intellectual Property Laws O X X X

Creative, Analytical & Innovative Labor Force O X O X

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SCENARIO FOUR

SCENARIO TWO

SCENARIO THREE

SCENARIO ONE

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23Scenario 1: Road to Utopia


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2014Q4-2014

Patents Expire, 3D printing takes off

Q4-2016 New technologies in US classrooms

2016 2/3rd of jobs require post-secondary edu.

2020 Cost of solarpower breaks even

2025 CC licensing is enshrined

2030 Platform building, lead-user innovation

2040 Discussions on minimum living wage increase

2050

24Scenario 1: Road to Utopia


3D Printing

Relaxed Intellectual Properties

Decentralization of Firms

Decentralization of Production Means

“A Click Away” Producers

Education Programs Succeed

Online Education

Crowd Services

Decentralization of Energy

Full Employment

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25Scenario 2: Polarization


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2014Q4-2014




2020 First signs of a widening social attainment gap

2025 25% of industrial tasks are automated

2025-2035 Only select professions are viable

2040-2050 1/4 of OECD pop. is over 65

2050

Key Departure from Scenario 1

26Scenario 2: Polarization



1 over 99%

Market Polarization

Decentralization of Production Means

Quicker Trends

Austerity Measures Continue

Online Education

Crowd Services

Conservative Population

Dominant Wealthy People

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27Scenario 3: Platform Bottlenecks


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2014Q4-2014




2020 Firms increase

new protections

2025-2030 Innovative

users and firms appear

2030 Regulations are

finally restructured

2040-Future Belated

approach to Scenario 1

2050


28Scenario 3: Platform Bottlenecks


Rent Seeking Move Towards Scenario 1

Move Towards Scenario 4

Restricted Intellectual Properties

Resistance to Adapt

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29Scenario 4: Road to Dystopia


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2014Q4-2014




2020 First signs of a widening social attainment gap

2020-2050 Powers of 1% become “enshrined”

2020-2040 40% of Worlds population live in cities

2040-2050 Growth of mega-cities/regions

2050


30Scenario 4: Road to Dystopia


Extreme Market

Polarization

City States & Mega Regions Bowl of Cities

3D Printing & Robotics 1 Over 99%

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31Strategies for 2050


1. Encourage Creativity and Innovation

2. Educational Fundings

5. Producers Should Foster

6. Shorter Life Cycles

7. Encourage Innovative Ecosystems

3. Restructuring Intellectual Properties

4. Remove Restrictions

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32Conclusion


Scenario Two

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33Conclusion


FOSTER COLLABORATION

INTELLECTUAL CAPACITIES ARE IMPORTANT

$ POLICY LEVERAGES REQUIRED

2050

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QUESTIONS &

ANSWERS

Go ahead. Don‘t hesitate.

THANK

YOU

For your attention!

Impact of Technological Trends, Scenario Planning the Next Technological Paradigm

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