Impact of Corona Pandemic lockdown in India: Save life or ...ijrar.org/papers/IJRAR1BNP097.pdfImpact...

© 2018 IJRAR November 2018, Volume 5, Issue 4 www.ijrar.org (E-ISSN 2348-1269, P- ISSN 2349-5138)

IJRAR1BNP097 International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (IJRAR) www.ijrar.org 1015

Impact of Corona Pandemic lockdown in India: Save life or Save

Economy

Dr. Nikhil Monga, Associate Professor, Lovely Professional University

Abstract

Presently a new virus which is now declared as pandemic named COVID19 is rolling out over worldwide

level. Seasonal influenza is also spreading which is creating fear of COVID19. The corona virus is

causing interruptions in almost every field and every organizations in all over the world . This result in

lockdown in almost every country. It might be a brief and passing disturbance, however there is an

undeniable hazard that families will lose salary and organizations of all sizes will endure as a result. In

this exploration paper impact of COVID19 infection on Indian economy and life of netizens will be

discussed. Recently published government reports and financial reports published will be summarized

and its impact will be discussed.

Keywords: Corona, Covid19, Economy, Life, Lockdown, Pandemic

Introduction

According to WHO “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly

discovered coronavirus. Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate

respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with

underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and

cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.The best way to prevent and slow down transmission is

be well informed about the COVID-19 virus, the disease it causes and how it spreads. Protect yourself

and others from infection by washing your hands or using an alcohol based rub frequently and not

touching your face. The COVID-19 virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge from

the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes, so it’s important that you also practice respiratory

etiquette (for example, by coughing into a flexed elbow). At this time, there are no specific vaccines or

treatments for COVID-19. However, there are many ongoing clinical trials evaluating potential

treatments. WHO will continue to provide updated information as soon as clinical findings become

available.COVID-19 is the infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. This

new virus and disease were unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.”

“Individuals can get COVID-19 from other people who have the infection. The illness can spread from

individual to individual through little beads from the nose or mouth which are spread when an individual

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with COVID-19 hacks or breathes out. These beads land on articles and surfaces around the individual.

Others at that point get COVID-19 by contacting these articles or surfaces, at that point contacting their

eyes, nose or mouth. Individuals can likewise get COVID-19 on the off chance that they take in beads

from an individual with COVID-19 who hacks out or breathes out drops. This is the reason it is

imperative to remain more than 1 meter (3 feet) away from an individual who is debilitated. WHO is

evaluating progressing research on the ways COVID-19 is spread and will keep on sharing refreshed

discoveries.”

According to the recent report published in telegraph “The source of the coronavirus is believed to be a

"wet market" in Wuhan which sold both dead and live animals including fish and birds. Such markets

pose a heightened risk of viruses jumping from animals to humans because hygiene standards are

difficult to maintain if live animals are being kept and butchered on site. Typically, they are also densely

packed allowing disease to spread from species to species”.

“The animal source of Covid-19 has not yet been identified, but the original host is thought to be bats.

Bats were not sold at the Wuhan market but may have infected live chickens or other animals sold

there. Bats are host to a wide range of zoonotic viruses including Ebola, HIV and rabies.”

Paul Nuki, Global Health Security Editor, London and Anne Gulland, Global health security

correspondent recently published an article in telegraph on COVID19 Pandemic stated that “It looks

increasingly likely that the coronavirus outbreak which started in China in December will become a

global pandemic”. “The disease is now spreading rapidly in South Korea, Italy and Iran and is likely to

be present but as yet undetected in other populous countries across Asia and the Pacific. In several

countries, including Italy, there is no obvious direct link back to China, which makes containing the

spread of virus all the more difficult. Critics will say the lockdown imposed by the authorities on Wuhan

and much of central China has not worked and that the World Health Organization's (WHO) strategy of

containment has failed”.

But there is little doubt China's crackdown has delayed the spread of the virus and bought the rest of the

world considerable additional time to prepare.

The key question now, as the virus gains territory, is whether the NHS and other health authorities

around the world have used that time wisely.

Here are some of the key things to expect if Covid-19 does now do a lap of the world.

Mitigation follows containment in the public health response to major new outbreaks. While containment

strategies aim to stop or hold back a disease, the goal of mitigation is to reduce its impact on society.




“The ultimate goal of [mitigation] measures is to reduce the intensity of an outbreak, flattening out the

epidemic curve and therefore reducing strain on the health system, and on social economic well-being,”

says Dr Josh Michaud, an associate director for global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

In simple terms planners will try to prevent sharp spikes in case numbers so the NHS and other services

do not become overwhelmed.”

They also share about the severe nature of COVID19 and stated that “In Wuhan - the epicentre of the

Covid-19 outbreak - the current death rate is between two and four per cent but is around 0.7 per cent in

the rest of China and the world, says WHO. If it falls as low as the 0.026 per cent death rate for swine

flu in 2009, it should be manageable even if it spreads throughout the UK. But even with the extra time

China’s shutdown has bought, experts are still far from sure about the clinical severity of the disease or

how to treat it. The virus is more likely to affect the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

However, a not insignificant number of healthy young people have died too - and this is worrying

doctors around the world”.

“Writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association doctors in Singapore, where there have

been 89 cases of the disease to date, say the coronavirus presents in a similar way to severe acute

respiratory syndrome (Sars), although is much less lethal.

The virus attacks the lungs with the disease progressing in distinct phases. CT scans of the lungs scans

show “ground-glass” opacity and then “crazy paving” patterns, as they fill with mucus making it harder to

breathe”.




“An interesting pattern is emerging in reports from China”, says Azra Ghani, professor of infectious

disease epidemiology at Imperial College, London. “After the first week of infection there is a tipping

point - where some patients go downhill but others remain more stable and then recover.”

“What kills many patients is their own immune system going into overdrive, triggering septic shock. This

is the body’s inflammatory response to microbial infection and it can lead to organ failure and death.

Older people and those with underlying conditions are more vulnerable but the young are not immune”.

“What’s different with this disease is that it’s a new virus and therefore the whole population is

potentially susceptible. Everyone is immunologically naive and no one has been exposed to it before,”

says Prof Ghani.

According to the recent report of world meters, the number of Corona virus Cases has reached to

1,933,800 , out of which Deaths touches at 120,434 and 456,539 have been recovered, The graphical

representation at world meter is

The number of cases and death rate is exponentially increasing and spreading all over the world. “The

coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international

conveyances”. USA, Spain, Italy is reported maximum cases of CORONA, It may be leading because of

large number of health checkup’s and awareness in these countries. Currently India is at 22nd place till

14th april but soon its ranking would increase due to ignorance and casual attitude of netizens.

According to the recent date till 14 April 14, 2020 , the number of COVID19 positive cases are 10,541.




Source: worldmeters.info

The graphical representation of total number of Corona Virus cases in India and daily new cases in

India is represented below reflecting the current situation of India. As india is highly dense populated

country of the world and level of education is also low even then it is controlled due to strict and

immediate action by the administration and timely lockdown but the graphical representation also

reveals the dangerous growth in the number of cases. It is represented below:





This graphical representation reflects the sudden steep jump in the number of cases from 29 to 10,453

in just one month which is a serious concern for the country and its population. This exponential growth

in number of cases is actually representing the negligence and irresponsible behavior of netizens as it

only spread through direct contact and till date no medicine has been discovered , only solution is to

break the chain by isolating themselves from themselves from entire world. Social distancing is one of

the effective measure taken by the china itself





David Cyranoski (Feb 2020) in his article named “Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus”

published in nature revealed that “Researchers at the South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou

suggested pangolins as the animal source at a press conference on 7 February. Pangolins are highly

sought-after in China for their meat and their scales; the latter are used in traditional medicine. Although




sales of the animal are forbidden in China as part of a worldwide ban, they are still smuggled in from a

handful of southeast Asian and African countries. The researchers said they had found a coronavirus in

smuggled pangolins that was a 99% genetic match to the virus circulating in people.”

But the result did not actually refer to the entire genome. In fact, “it related to a specific site known as

the receptor-binding domain (RBD), say the study’s authors, who posted their analysis on the

biomedical preprint server bioRxiv on 20 February. The press-conference report was the result of an

“embarrassing miscommunication between the bioinformatics group and the lab group of the study”,

explains Xiao Lihua, a parasitologist at the South China Agricultural University and a co-author of the

paper. A whole-genome comparison found that the pangolin and human viruses share 90.3% of their

DNA”.

“The RBD is a crucial part of coronaviruses, which allows them to latch on to and enter a cell. Even a

99% similarity between the RBDs of the two viruses is not necessarily enough to link them, says Linfa

Wang, a virologist at Duke–National University of Singapore Medical School who was part of the team

that found the origin of the SARS virus.” So far, “the closest match to the human coronavirus has been found

in a bat in China’s Yunnan province. A study published on 3 February found that the bat coronavirus shared 96%

of its genetic material with the virus that causes COVID-19. Bats could have passed the virus to humans, but

there are key differences between the RBD sites in the two viruses. This suggests that this specific bat

coronavirus did not directly infect people, but could have been transmitted it to people through an intermediate

host, say researchers”.

The papers raise more questions than they answer, says Jiang Zhigang, an ecologist at the Chinese

Academy of Sciences Institute of Zoology in Beijing. He asks, if pangolins are the source of the virus,

and they came from another country, why haven’t there been reports of people being infected in that

location?

Sara Platto, who studies animal behaviour at Jianghan University in Wuhan, worries that all the

speculation about pangolins being the source could drive people to kill them. Civets were killed en

masse after the SARS outbreak. “The problem is not the animals, it’s that we get in contact with them,”

says Platto.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on Indian Economy

According to Economics times(April’ 2020) “World's biggest lockdown may have cost Rs 7-8 lakh

crore to Indian economy” The world's greatest lockdown that shut a larger part of the processing plants

and organizations, suspended flights, halted prepares and confined development of vehicles and

people,The world's greatest lockdown may have cost the Indian economy Rs 7-8 lakh crore during the




21-day time frame, analysts and industry bodies said. “With the intent to contain the spread of COVID-

19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi with effect from March 25 announced a nationwide complete

lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and

discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining,

utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate. Stating that

the pandemic came at the most inopportune time for India whose economy was showing signs of

recovery after bold fiscal/monetary measures, Centrum Institutional Research said the country again

stares at the possibility of low single-digit growth for FY2021 (April 2020 to March 2021)”

"Nationwide complete lockdown is likely to shave off at least Rs 7-8 trillion," it said.

Acuite Ratings & Research Ltd earlier this month “estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian

economy almost USD 4.64 billion (over Rs 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will

result in a GDP loss of almost USD 98 billion (about Rs 7.5 lakh crore). The rapid spread of COVID-19

has not only disrupted the global economy but also triggered a partial shutdown in many parts of India

from early March and an almost complete shutdown from March 25”.

"There is an unprecedented uncertainty about the exact impact COVID-19 will have on the near-term

growth outlook. Though difficult to quantify, it is clear that aggregate demand will weaken significantly in

the near future, which will impact the growth prospects for the year as a whole," wrote RBI executive

director and Monetary Policy Committee member Janak Raj. "The COVID-19 pandemic is an invisible

assassin which needs to be contained quickly before it spreads and wreaks havoc on valuable human

lives and the macro economy," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das wrote in his minutes.

"In this scenario, it is important to ensure that finance, which is the lifeline of the economy, keeps

flowing seamlessly to various sectors." "Weaker overall demand outlook and lower crude oil prices should

keep upside risks to inflation firmly contained, even in the face of temporary supply chain disruptions and scope

for opportunistic use of pricing power," Mr Das said.

"Arresting risks to the growth outlook and preserving financial stability should, accordingly, receive the

highest priority.”

References:

1. Xiao, K. et al. Preprint on bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.17.951335 (2020).

2. Lam, T. T.-Y. et al. Preprint on bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.13.945485 (2020).

3. Liu, P. et al. Preprint on bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.954628 (2020).




4. Zhang, T., Wu, Q. & Zhang, Z. Preprint on bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.19.950253

(2020).

5. Zhou, P. et al. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7 (2020).

Weblinks

1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/14/what-coronavirus-how-covid-19-started-china/

2. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

3. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

4. https://www.who.int

5. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/worlds-biggest-lockdown-may-

have-cost-rs-7-8-lakh-crore-to-indian-economy/articleshow/75123004.cms

6. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/covid-19-causes-severe-disruption-

to-indian-economy-says-world-bank/articleshow/75104474.cms

7. https://www.ndtv.com/business/coronavirus-crisis-what-rbi-just-observed-about-covid-19-impact-

on-economy-march-mpc-meet-minutes-2210835


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