G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & DevelopmentKosi-Katarmal, Almora, Uttarakhand

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Impact of Climate Change on

Natural Ecosystems & Forests in the North-Western Himalaya

(Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand)

L. M. S. Palni

Reporting

AreaGBPIHED

� A large part of the study area is covered by snow-clad peaks

� Glaciers in the higher Himalaya

� Dense forest cover in mid-Himalaya

� Thin and dispersed human population as compared to the national figures

� The population growth rate (average ~23%) is higher than the national average (21.35%) during 1991-2001

Features:

ParameterJammu &

Kashmir

Himachal

PradeshUttarakhand IHR India

Geographical Area (km2) 222,236 55,673 53,483 537,430 3,287,263

Demographic Parameters

Human Population

(Persons)10069917 6077248 8479562 39,628,311 1,026,640,181

Percent contribution to

the total population of the

country

0.98 0.59 0.83 4.08 100.00

Decadal Growth rate

(1991-2001)30.46 18 20 25.43 21.35

Annual average

exponential growth rate

(1961-2001)

2.6 2 2 2.47 2.12

Sex ratio (females/ 1000

males)900 970 964 940 933

Population density (km-1) 99 109 159 74 324

General Profile ...

Source: Census, 2001

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ParameterJammu &

Kashmir

Himachal

PradeshUttarakhand

Area under major Forest Types (km2)

Coniferous 8269 8950 5565

Non-Coniferous 1885 6958 5717

Mixed coniferous and others 10076 15908 12706

Forest Ecosystem Services

Value of Ecosystem Services as of

1994* (Billion Rs.) * 118.02 42.46 106.89

Area under different forest types and forest ecosystem services

Source: Forestry Statistics India, 2003, *Singh, 2007

•The area is dominated by mixed coniferous and other type of species

•J &K, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh respectively represent 12.5%, 11.3%, and 0.04% of total ecosystem service (ES) values estimated for entire IHR

* Based on area under dense forests

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Changing Climatic Patterns…

• Decreasing trend of annual rainfall (-29.7 to -2.1 cm/100 years) has been observed at Srinagar, Shimla, Musoorie, Mukteshwar and Joshimath whereas increasing trend at Dehradun, Pauri, Nainital, Almora & Pithoragarh (3.8 to 28.7 cm/100 years) has been observed in last century (Borgaonkar et al. 1998)

• On seasonal scale, increasing trend of winter rainfall (1964-2006) & summer rainfall (1938-2006), whereas decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall (1960 onwards) has been observed in western Himalaya (Sontakke et al. 2008)

• Decrease of snowfall and reduction in effective duration of winter has been observed in Pir-Panjal Himalayan ranges (Bhutiyani et al., 2009).

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• Trends of temperature are not uniform over the NWH region and annual temperature has risen by 1.6 oC in the last century with winter warming (Bhutiyani et al. 2007)

• Increasing trend of temperature in post-monsoon & winter and decreasing trend in monsoon has been observed for Srinagar, Shimla, Musoorie, Dehradun & Mukteshwar, whereas Leh has experienced warming during last 100 years (Borgaonkar et al. 1998)

• Ring-width chronology prepared from Lahul-Spiti region has indicated warming in late 20th century mean summer temperature in the Himalayan region (Yadav, 2009)

Changing Climatic Patterns…

GBPIHEDName of the

Glacier

State Period of

observation

Trend Avg. retreat

rate (m/yr)

Reference

Gangotri Uttarakhand 1935-71

1971-2004

2004-2005

Retreating

--do--

--do--

26.50

17.15

12.10

Bali et. al, 2009

--do--

Kumar et. al,

2008

Pindari Uttarakhand 1845-1906

1906-1958

1958-1996

1966-2007

Retreating

--do--

--do--

--do--

26.23

20.0

7.62

6.39

Bali et. al, 2009

Dokriani Uttarakhand 1962–95 Retreating 16.67 Dobhal, et al.,

2004

Durung

Drung

Jammu & Kashmir 2004-07 No Change - Ganjoo, 2010

Kangriz Jammu & Kashmir 1913-2007 No Change - Ganjoo, 2010

Siachin Jammu & Kashmir 1862-1909

1909-1929

1929-1958

1958-1985

1985-2004

2004-2005

Advancing

Retreating

Retreating

No Change

Retreating

No change

15.42

2.5

14

-

3

-

Ganjoo, 2010

Retreating Pattern of Himalayan Glaciers

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• Most of the glaciers in western Himalaya are receding (expect a few in J & K state, which do not show any change or are advancing) However, the rate of recession of many large glaciers (Siachin and Gangotri) has slowed down over past few decades

• In Ladakh, Zanskar and Great Himalayan ranges of Jammu & Kashmir, during last three decades most of the glaciers are receding with glacier volume change ranges between 3.6-97 % with majority of the glaciers showing 17-25% degradation

• The glaciers of the Nubra valley of Jammu & Kashmir (houses 114 small sized glaciers varying between less than 5 km to 5-10 km in length) do not show much change in their length and area during the period 1989-2001

• The variable rates of recession in different valleys indicate the influence of micro-climatic variability

1999

2004

2007

Retreating Pattern of Himalayan Glaciers

• As glaciers recede and snowlines move upwards, river flows are likely to change depending upon the glaciated area

• Significant reduction in monsoonal and annual discharge of the rivers Chenab and Beas (Bhutiyani et al. 2008a) and increase in river flow of Satluj and Indus have been observed in past few years (Rees and Collins 2006 & Singh and Jain 2002)

• The adopted changes in temperature (1 to 30C) and precipitation (-10 to +10%) suggest that rise of 20C in temperature may increase the runoff by 28% and changes in rainfall by ±10% may correspond to ±3.5% change in stream flow form Dokriani glacier (Dobhal et al. 2004)

• Alteration in water flow regimes may lead to social conflicts, affect hydropower generation, endanger biodiversity systems/forestry, agricultural-based livelihoods and overall well being of the people

Impact of CC on water resources GBPIHED

Biological Responses to CC GBPIHED

• Phenology

• Endemics

• PAs

• Species – community pattern

• Alien/invasive

• Microbes

• Retreat – replacements (?)

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Biological Responses to CC

Timing of biological events (phenology)

Morphology, physiology, and behaviour

Species distribution ranges

Increased frequency and intensity of outbreaks of pests and diseases; range shifts pole ward or to higher altitudes of pests/disease organisms

Changes in stream flow, floods, droughts, water temperature, and water quality have affected biodiversity and the goods and services of ecosystems

‘Climate Change and Biodiversity’(IPCC Technical Paper – V; 2002); assessment of 2,500 published studies

• The phenophases of 11 multipurpose tree species, substantial shift in critical phenophases and advancement in phenophases of these tree species in a span of 8 years is believed to be associated with climate change at the regional level in Himachal Pardesh (Thakur et al. 2008)

• The projected climate change scenario of +1oC and +2oC rise in temperature exhibit the overall area under present day Brown oak (Quercus semecarpifolia Sm.) distribution will get reduced by 40 and 76%, respectively in the west Himalayan region (Saran et al. 2010)

• Rhododendrons and other woody species have begun to invade alpine meadows in the valley of flowers of Uttarakhand (Singh et al., 2010)

Biological Responses to CC

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Biological Responses to CC

Upward shift of Blue –pine (P. wallichiana)

�Young saplings on upper limitYoung saplings on upper limitYoung saplings on upper limitYoung saplings on upper limit

�High rate of upward shift (19m/10yr South slope; High rate of upward shift (19m/10yr South slope; High rate of upward shift (19m/10yr South slope; High rate of upward shift (19m/10yr South slope;

14 m/10yr North slope14 m/10yr North slope14 m/10yr North slope14 m/10yr North slope

�Exponential increase in growth since 1950sExponential increase in growth since 1950sExponential increase in growth since 1950sExponential increase in growth since 1950s

(AS= Abies spectabilis; BU= Betula utilis; PW= Pinus wallichiana; SD= Salix disperma

1

10

100

1000

10000

1

10

100

1000

AS BU PW SD

Species

De

ns

ity

(In

d h

a-1

)

Tree

Sapling

Seedling

Abies spectabilis

Betula utilis

• A. spectabilis - stable• B. utilis - stable

• B. utilis - reduced back-up• S. disperma – emergent

Dubey et al. 2003

Forest Regeneration - Nanda Devi

NP

Samant 2003

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•••• Higher male tree density Higher male tree density Higher male tree density Higher male tree density –––– males with larger mean tree sizemales with larger mean tree sizemales with larger mean tree sizemales with larger mean tree size---- extremes of species range and resourceextremes of species range and resourceextremes of species range and resourceextremes of species range and resource----poor habitat conditionspoor habitat conditionspoor habitat conditionspoor habitat conditions

Low altitude(1300m)

High altitude(2100m)

• Femaleness • Seedling recruitment• Sapling bank

• Favorableness !• Likely expansion of forest and species boundaries !

•••• Probability of sexProbability of sexProbability of sexProbability of sex

Young Myrica stock

Male biased

Female biased

•

Longterm

Decline

Increase

Sensitive Species - Myrica esculenta

Rawal et al. 2003

Biological Responses to CC…

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Net photosynthesis Stomatal conductance

H. himalayensH. vulgare

Traditional crop responses…

Greater sensitivity of photosynthetic characteristics of Hordeumhimalayens to high temperature - reduction in cultivation

Joshi & Palni, 2005

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Decline in apple production

Despite of an increase of 46.9% Despite of an increase of 46.9% Despite of an increase of 46.9% Despite of an increase of 46.9%

area under apple cultivation from area under apple cultivation from area under apple cultivation from area under apple cultivation from

8888thththth to 9to 9to 9to 9thththth decade a decade a decade a decade a decrease of decrease of decrease of decrease of

26.4% per unit area production26.4% per unit area production26.4% per unit area production26.4% per unit area production in in in in

the 9the 9the 9the 9thththth decade decade decade decade

Climatic data recorded at Naggar Climatic data recorded at Naggar Climatic data recorded at Naggar Climatic data recorded at Naggar

in Kullu valley showed an in Kullu valley showed an in Kullu valley showed an in Kullu valley showed an

increase in both, maximum increase in both, maximum increase in both, maximum increase in both, maximum

(1.1(1.1(1.1(1.1◦C) and minimum (0.35C) and minimum (0.35C) and minimum (0.35C) and minimum (0.35◦C) C) C) C)

temperatures and decline in the temperatures and decline in the temperatures and decline in the temperatures and decline in the

average annual rainfall average annual rainfall average annual rainfall average annual rainfall and and and and

snowfall in the 9snowfall in the 9snowfall in the 9snowfall in the 9thththth decade decade decade decade

Decrease of nearly 9.01 cm in Decrease of nearly 9.01 cm in Decrease of nearly 9.01 cm in Decrease of nearly 9.01 cm in

annual average rainfallannual average rainfallannual average rainfallannual average rainfall in the in the in the in the

second half of the 20second half of the 20second half of the 20second half of the 20thththth century century century century

was found as compared to first was found as compared to first was found as compared to first was found as compared to first

half of the same century.half of the same century.half of the same century.half of the same century.

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SocioSocioSocioSocio---- economiceconomiceconomiceconomic…………

� Climate sensitivity

� Geological vulnerability

� Geographical isolation

� Economic marginality

� Poor technical skill

…out migration

Linking challenges & opportunities

…over burdened

Cultural diversity

Indigenous Knowledge

Adaptation strategies ?

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GBPIHEDFuture Directions…

� Development of scientific programmes for climate change monitoring

� Downscaling of regional climate models (RCMs)

� Researches on Himalayan precipitation processes

� Coupling of climate and hydrological models for the Himalayan streams

� Long-term studies on biodiversity elements of forest and alpine ecosystems

� Study of micro-organisms in relation to the effect of climate

� Partnership building – implementation strategy

� Issues of information gaps – optimal use of existing information

� Access to better information - Backup of Decision Support Systems (model based data generation and retrieval systems), information & knowledge portals

� Methods/approaches- compatibility and reproducibility

� Ecosystem conservation – technological advancement and holistic approach

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Key

iss

ues

….

Key issues for discussions . . .

� Capacity building – multiple stakeholder groups

� Community involvement – information generation and refinement of coping mechanisms

� Improving outreach – R&D extension

� Observational network – responsibilities

� Trans boundary cooperation – information sharing and technology transfer

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Key

iss

ues

….

Key issues for discussions...

Let us face the reality …

…prepare our selves

T h a n k s

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