Master’s Seminaron

Impact of Climate Change in Rainfed Agriculture

Submitted to-Dr. THOMAS ABRAHAMProfessor,Dept. of Agronomy,Allahabad School of Agriculture,SHIATS

Submitted by-

SUNIL JAKHAR M.Sc.(Ag.) Agronomy

I.D.No. :16MSAGRO013Department of Agronomy,

SHIATS

COURSE CODE: AGRN-780

INTRODUCTION

• Climate is one of the main determinants of agricultural production.

•Climate change and agriculture are inter related processes, both of which take place on a global scale, global warming is projected to have significance impact on conditions affecting agriculture , including temperature , CO2, glacial runoff , precipitation and interaction of these elements.

DEFINITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

According to Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) ‘climatechange’ refers to change in the state ofthe climate that can be identified bychange in the mean or variability of itsproperties and that persists forextended periods.

Climate is affected by many factors

ABIOTIC FACTORS: BIOTIC FACTORS:

1.Topography 1.Transpiration

2.Altitude 2.Respiration

3.Latidude 3.Photosynthesis

4.Ocean currents 4.Decomposition

5.Solar Radiation

6.Evaporation

Impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture

Soil: Drier, reduced productivity

Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply

Pests: Increased ranges and populations

Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in south Asia

Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress

Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning

Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output

Agricultural productivity in India was estimated to decrease by 2.5 to 10% by 2020(FAO) to 5 to 30% by 2050 (IPCC assessment

Role of Agriculture in climate change

• Emission of green house gases from crops.• Cultivation of land.• Intensive agriculture practices.• Use of chemical fertilizers.• Respiration activities.• Burnings of straws, stubbles etc.• Decomposition of organic matter.• Anaerobic rice cultivation.• Livestock activities.

Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

Climate Change

Impact on rainfed agriculture

Adaptation

Vulnerability

Figure 1. Climate Change and Agriculture

Climate Change and Agriculture

Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change.

(Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

• Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74℃during last 100 years.

• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused

by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.

• Temperatures greater increase in rabi seasion.

• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif.

• More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations.

• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

Global climate change

Estimates of Future Levels of CO2

Year CO2, ppm

2000 369

2010-2015 388-398

2050/2060 463-623

2100 478-1099

Figure 2. PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

CLIMATE CHANGE

Indirect effects•Soil fertility

•Irrigation availability•Pest

•Flood and droughts

Socio economic•Policy•Trade

•Farmer’s response

Direct effect on crop

•Physiology•Morphology

Human interventionsAdaptation strategiesMitigation strategies

Agricultural production and vulnerability

RESEARCH FINDINGS

Research Objectives

•To study the response of rainfed crops’ yield and production to different scenarios of variation in climatic conditions (e.g., rainfall precipitation and temperature).

• New and relevant technical knowledge can be applied.

Table 1. Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India

Year SeasonTemperature change(℃) Rainfall change (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

2050s

2020s

2080s

Rabi

Kharif

Rabi

Kharif

Rabi

Kharif

1.08

2.54

0.87

1.81

4.14

2.91

1.54

1.81

-1.95

1.12 5.10

3.18

4.36

-9.22

6.31

2.37 7.18

24.83

4.62

3.82

10.52

4.50

10.10 15.18

Source: Rupakumar et al.,2006

Table 2. Alternate crops suitable for delayed sowing conditions in some arid areas

Locations

Normal sowing Delayed sowing Both situation

Hisar (Haryana) Pearl millet, clusterbean Cowpea(short

duration)

Greengram,

clusterbean

Anantpur (A.P.) Sorghum, pigeonpea,

greengram, castor

millet, groundnut,

sunflower, horsegram

Pearl millet

Dantiwada

(Gujrat)

Pearl millet, castor, cotton Castor, clusterbean

(drought

tolerence)

Sorghum,

greengram

Jodhpur

(Rajasthan)

Pearl millet, clusterbean, Clusterbean, castor,

Red gram(Short

duration)

Greengram,

cowpea,

mothbean

Suitable crops

Source: Kalra et al., 2008

Table 3. Effect of drought on rainfed crop yield in Dharwad District

Crop Percent loss of normal yield

Sorghum 43.03%

Maize 14.09%

Groundnut 34.09%

Wheat 48.68%

cotton 59.96%Source: Asha et al.,2012

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Pro

du

cti

on ,

Mto

ns

Year

Figure 3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

Source: Aggarwal et al.,2002

Table 5. Effect in increased temp. on productivity of crops in punjab

CropsTemperature rise

1℃ 2℃ 3 ℃

Per cent reduction in yield

Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7

Rice

Maize

Groundnut

7.4 25.1

14.6 21.410.4

8.7 23.2 36.2

5.4

Ludhiana Source: Hundal and Kaur, 1996

Table 6. Reason for reduction in yield and net revenue

FactorsSmall

FarmersMedium Farmers

Large Farmers

Total Farmers

Change in temperature

53.33 40.00 33.33 42.22

Rainfall 100.00 93.33 92.2283.33

73.33

60.00

72.22

46.6726.6753.33

7.780.00

83.33

16.67Others factors/no

idea

Pest and Disease

Soil fertility and erosion

60.00

6.67

Source: Asha et al., 2012

Key adaptation strategies

1. Improving land and water management

2. New varieties: drought/heat resistant3. New farm management practices4. Change in land use5. Watershed management6. Agri-insurance

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• Farmers at very few locations are aware of climatic change adaptation strategies like change in the cropping system.

•

• Watershed management.

• Require careful management of resource like soil, water, biodiversity.

• Adopt in Agro-forestry system.

New varieties: drought/heat resistant.

REFERENCES

• Asha L.K.V., Munisamy, G., Bhat, A.R.S., August 2012. Impact of Climate Change on Rainfed Agriculture In India: A case study of Dharwad. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, Vol. 3, (368-371)

• Hebbar K.B., Venugopalan A.H., Prakash A.H.,2013. Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in India. Climate Change(2013) 118:701-713

• Hundal, S.S. and Kaur, P:1996. Climate change and its impact on

crop productivity in the Punjab, India’, In Climate Variability and

Agriculture . 408-415

• Greenhouse Gas emissions