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Impact Defense



US–China Relations

***Relations



Inevitable

Alt cause- Taiwan is the core issue in US-China relationsTucker !- Professor of History at Georgetown University and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson nternational !enter for Scholars. She is the author of the "ust#$u%lished %oo& Strait 'al&( United States#'aiwan )elations and the!risis with !hina. Her earlier %oo&s include Patterns in the *ust, Uncertain Friendshi$s, and the edited volumes *angerous Strait, !hina !onfidential,and +yndon ohnson !onfronts the World-ancy, /At the !ore of U.S.#!hina )elations,0 Asia Policy 12, 3use4

U.S.#!hina relations are never as good or as %ad as they seem and rarely do they remain long at any imagined

$ea& or nadir. 5ne of the few constants in the changing dynamic6vital to "udging the de$th and %readth ofrelations6is the issue of 'aiwan. 'he contention over 'aiwan7s status and future circumscri%es $ros$ects for$eace and mutual %enefit %etween the United States and !hina. 'his issue necessitates interaction %ut undermines coo$eration.

t demonstrates the vast differences of vision and $ractice %etween the two $owers in $olitical, economic, and security affairs. Even as Washington and 8ei"ing wor& together on vital issues such as international finance, law enforcement, climate change,

counterterrorism, and orth 9orean nuclear $roliferation, 'aiwan remains at the core of the relationshi$, ensuring mistrustand sus$icion. f 'aiwan had %ecome $art of the Peo$le7s )e$u%lic of !hina in :;<;, confrontations %etween

Washington and 8ei"ing would have %een fewer and the o$$ortunities for reconciliation and coo$eration fargreater. Progress on contem$orary $ro%lems would %e easier. 'he !old War determined initial $olicies and $ractices. 'he United States o$$osed /)ed!hina0 and su$$orted the /Free !hinese0 in the conte=t of the ideological com$etition then defining the world community. When the United States and!hina %egan to normali>e relations in the :;?@s and Washington suddenly had more !ommunist friends than did 3oscow, the $lace of 'ai$ei ra$idly

eroded. Since the end of the !old War, the U.S.#'aiwan#!hina triangle has %een %oth more and less critical, more and lessof an o%stacle to crafting what successive administrations in Washington have termed a $ositive, constructive,candid, coo$erative, and com$rehensive U.S.#!hina relationshi$. 8y the :st century, the original alignments

would most $ro%a%ly have vanished e=ce$t for the flourishing of democracy in 'aiwan.



ResilientRelations resilient- constant cooperation will onl" increase

#en$hao% ! B Senior )esearcher at the nstitute of American Studies of the !hinese Academy of SocialSciences-'ao, C:?C@;, /Positive signs ahead for Sino#US relations,0 !hina *aily, htt$(CCwww.chinadaily.com.cnCcndyC@@;#@C:?CcontentD?<2:<@.htm4

'he direction of Sino#US relations under 8arac& 5%amas $residency is drawing increasing attention as the new USadministration ta&es sha$e. 'he new $resident made remar&s a%out !hina during his election cam$aign and wrote for the US !ham%er of !ommerce in

!hina an article on the $ros$ect of Sino#US ties in his term of office. n anuary, newly assigned Secretary of State Hillary !linton

also deli%erated on US foreign $olicy in a Senate hearing. 5%ama ac&nowledges that common interests e=ist %etween !hina and the US and welcomes a rising !hina. He reali>es !hinas remar&a%le achievement in the $ast @ years has driven

economic develo$ment in neigh%oring nations and %elieves its emergence as a %ig $ower is irreversi%le and the US should coo$erate to deal with

emerging challenges. 'he US and !hina have had effective and smooth coo$eration on a wide range of economic andsecurity issues, from anti#terror, non$roliferation and climate change to the restructuring of the e=tantinternational financial system. 'his is e=$ected to %e the new administrations mainstream !hina $olicy anddominate the future of Sino#US relations. As multilateralism %elievers, %oth President 5%ama and ice#President oe 8idenadvocate international coo$eration instead of unilateral action to deal with international challenges and resolvedis$utes. Fruitful coo$eration %etween !hina and the US on the 9orean Peninsula nuclear issue clearlyindicates constructive %ilateral and multilateral coo$eration on sensitive issues can hel$ ease strained regionalsituations. 'he new US administration has e=$ressed its wishes to continue to $romote a sta%le 9oreanPeninsula and to im$rove ties with the *emocratic Peo$les )e$u%lic of 9orea. 'he new administration hasalso e=$ressed e=$ectations for coo$eration with !hina on other international issues, such as the ranian nuclear and

*arfur challenges. !hina now $lays a crucial role in the worlds $olitical landsca$e and we loo& forward tocoo$erative ties with it, !linton recently said. Ever#dee$ening economic and trade ties, as the cornerstone of %ilateralrelations, are e=$ected to continue to develo$ during 5%amas tenure.

Relations resilient- both lea&ers want to keep relations stron' #an (# Staff Writer at Wall Street ournal

-William, /!hina( U.S. relations sound,0 htt$(CCwww.washington$ost.comCw$#dynCcontentCarticleC@:@C@;C@CA)@:@@;@@@.html, ;C?4

At a time of tension in U.S.#!hina relations, a three#day visit %y senior U.S. officials to 8ei"ing %egan 3onday withsigns that !hinese leaders want to smooth over some &ey frictions. ISoundI and Ista%leI was how a to$!ommunist Party official descri%ed the two countries relationshi$ while receiving the U.S. delegation, which included ationalEconomic !ouncil *irector +awrence H. Summers and de$uty national security adviser 'homas *onilon. 'he meeting comes after the U.S.#!hina

relationshi$ has %een %attered on several fronts. 'he United States has fought with !hina during the $ast few months over !hinas trade sur$lus andcurrency valuation, with little to show for it. U.S.#South 9orea military e=ercises near the !hinese coast have incensed !hinese officials, as did President5%amas meeting with the e=iled 'i%etan s$iritual leader, the *alai +ama, and a U.S. arms sale to 'aiwan, %oth of which ha$$ened earlier this year.

)hetoric on %oth sides has ratcheted u$ in recent wee&s on national security issues # with !hinas state#owned$arty $a$ers denouncing U.S. interference in South !hina Sea issues, and Secretary of State Hillary )odham !linton res$onding in uly

at an Association of Southeast Asian ations meeting that the area is $art of her countrys Inational interest,I which set off more fuming in $arty $a$ers.

5n 3onday, %oth sides e=$ressed ho$e that meetings %etween U.S. and !hinese officials scheduled in coming wee&s may hel$ thaw some of the recent difficulties. IAlthough there were some distur%ances in !hina#U.S.relations, in A$ril and 3ay after President 5%ama and President Hu intao had two meetings, our relationshave 'otten back on a soun& track ,I +i Juanchao, head of the section in the !hinese government that oversees senior $artya$$ointments, said %efore the closed#door tal&s %egan. +ater 3onday, according to the Associated Press, Summers told ice Premier Wang Kishan that

5%ama Ihas em$hasi>ed for us the im$ortance he attaches to a very strong relationshi$ %etween the UnitedSates and !hina.I Among this visits to$ issues, Summers added, is setting u$ a tri$ for Hu to Washington. Still to come in the ne=t few months are!hinese Premier Wen ia%aos visit in a few wee&s to the U.. General Assem%ly in ew Jor&, a meeting of the U.S.#!hina oint !ommission on

!ommerce and 'rade and the Grou$ of @ summit, where additional !hina#U.S. tal&s may occur. Hu is li&ely to visit the United States in anuary. Someof the most $ressing issues in this wee&s meetings involve the 9orean Peninsula, said Shi Jinhong, an international studies $rofessor at 8ei"ings

)enmin University. 'here have %een icy feelings all around, he said, since the !heonan, a warshi$ %elonging to U.S. ally South

9orea, was sun& near the %order of !hinas ally, orth 9orea. Ieither !hina nor the U.S. wants to ma&e a concession on this,I Shi said, I %ut the twocountries also dont seem to want the relationshi$ to deteriorate again.I

)o impact- US-China relations will not succee&- inevitable conflicts an& &isa'reements Art (# !hristian A. Herter Professor of nternational )elations at 8randeis University and *irector of 3's Seminar LL Program-)o%ert ., /'he United States and the )ise of !hina( m$lications for the +ong Haul,0 Political Science Kuarterly4

'he wor&ings of these three factors should ma&e us cautiously o$timistic a%out &ee$ing Sino#Americanrelations on the $eaceful rather than the warli&e trac& . 'he $eaceful trac& does not , %y any means, im$ly the a%senceof $olitical and economic conflicts in Sino#American relations, nor does it foreclose coercive di$lomatic



gam%its %y each against the other. What it does mean is that the conditions are in $lace for war to %e a low#$ro%a%ility event, if $olicyma&ers

are smart in %oth states -see %elow4, and that an all#out war is nearly im$ossi%le to imagine. 8y the historical standards of recentdominant#rising state dyads, this is no mean feat. n sum, there will %e some security dilemma dynamics at wor& inthe U.S.#!hina relationshi$, %oth over 'aiwan and over maritime su$remacy in East Asia , should !hina decide

eventually to contest Americas maritime hegemony, and there will certainl" be political an& militar" conflicts, %utnuclear wea$ons should wor& to mute their severity %ecause the security of each states homeland will never %e in dou%t as long as each maintains a

seconds tri&e ca$a%ility vis#A#vis the other. f two states cannot conMuer one another, then the character of their relationand their com$etition changes dramatically .

Relations cant solve- China is focuse& on &omestic issuesChristensen ((- William P. 8oswell Professor of World Politics of Peace and War at Princeton University.From @@ to @@2, he was U.S. *e$uty Assistant Secretary of State with res$onsi%ility for $olicy toward!hina, 'aiwan, and 3ongolia.-'homas ., /'he Advantage of an Assertive !hina( )es$onding to 8ei"ing7s A%rasive *i$lomacy,0htt$(CCwww.foreignaffairs.comCarticlesC?<??Cthomas#"#christensenCthe#advantages#of#an#assertive#china, 3archCA$ril Foreign Affairs4

'hat is the good news. What is less commonly noted, however, is that the same factors that have caused !hinas recent tensions with its neigh%ors and the United States have $roduced an argua%ly stic&ier and more conseMuential long#term$ro%lem( they have retarded, if not halted outright, what was a very $ositive and much#needed shift in !hineseforeign $olicy during the last two years of the 8ush administration. *uring that $eriod, 8ei"ing showed a willingness to soften

some of its traditional $rohi%itions on an assertive foreign $olicy so as to assist the international community in dealing with $ro%lems faced %y all glo%al

actors, including !hina. Even if U.S.#!hinese ties im$rove and !hina reverses the negative trends in its regional di$lomacy, Washington

may still %e unsatisfied if the shift does not include enhanced !hinese $artici$ation in international efforts totac&le glo%al $ro%lems, es$ecially $roliferation in orth 9orea and ran. For the United States and its allies, securing this &ind of!hinese coo$eration may %e the highest hurdle to clear. 5%ama has an im$ressive grou$ of advisers on Asia, %ut the&omestic political an& ps"cholo'ical factors in China will create reasons for pessimism, at least until

!hinas succession is com$lete in @:. Unfortunately, without such a change in !hinas $olicies, solving $ro%lems from $roliferation toclimate change will %e much more difficult for the United States and the rest of the international community.n this one im$ortant sense, the United States needs a more assertive !hina.

Impact non-uni+ue- cooperation in the status +uo #alsh (- Environment re$orter for '3E 3aga>ine-8ryan, /!limate !hange( U.S. and !hina6Faraway, So !lose,0 htt$(CCecocentric.%logs.time.comC@:@C@;C;Cclimate#change#u#s#and#chinaNEN2@N;<faraway#so#closeC, Se$tem%er ;4

And des$ite the rhetoric youre li&ely to hear on the di$lomatic stage, theres a lot the U.S. and !hina can do together

6and a lot theyre already doing. !hina itself is s$ending hundreds of %illions on renewa%le energy and energyefficiency, and has set its own targets for cutting its car%on intensity -the amount of car%on used $er unit of G*P4 over the

coming years. -'hose goals are either sur$risingly im$ressive or somewhat disa$$ointing, de$ending on your calculations, %ut the $oint is that 8ei"ingisnt ignoring car%on6it "ust seems to want to do so on its own terms, li&e $retty much everything else.4 Andthe 8ei"ing and Washington are coo$erating on clean energy research and im$lementation6last year Energy SecretarySteven !hu hel$ed $ut together the U.S.#!hina !lean Energy )esearch !enter, a nearly a multi#million dollar initiative meant to %ring together energy

researchers from %oth countries. I!lean energy coo$eration is moving very ra$idly,I says +ie%erthal. I'he momentumfor these two countries is %uilding.I



Cooperation fails- a''ressive Chinese ener'" policies hin&er international efforst,ra&sher (# Hong 9ong %ureau chief of 'he ew Jor& 'imes, He won the Asia Society7s 5s%orn Elliott

Award and the 5verseas Press !lu%7s 3alcolm For%es Award in @:@, for coverage of clean energy in !hina. He won the George Pol& Award for national re$orting for his coverage of s$ort utility vehicles in :;;? and was afinalist for the Pulit>er Pri>e the same year.-9eith, /5n !lean Energy, !hina S&irts )ules,0 htt$(CCwww.nytimes.comC@:@C@;C@;C%usinessCglo%alC@;trade.htmlOref&eithD%radsherQ$agewantedall, ;C24

'he %ooming !hinese clean energy sector, now more than a million "o%s strong, is Muic&ly coming to dominate the

$roduction of technologies essential to slowing glo%al warming and other forms of air $ollution. Such technologies are needed toassure adeMuate energy as the world7s $o$ulation grows %y nearly a third, to nine %illion $eo$le %y the middle of the century, while oil and coal reserves

dwindle. 8ut much of !hina7s clean energy success lies in aggressive government $olicies that hel$ this cruciale=$ort industry in ways most other governments do not. 'hese measures ris& %rea&ing international rules to

which !hina and almost all other nations su%scri%e, according to some trade e=$erts interviewed %y 'he ew Jor& 'imes. A visit toone of !hangsha7s newest success stories offers an e=am$le of the government7s methods. Hunan Sun>one 5$toelectronics, a two#year#old com$any,ma&es solar $anels and shi$s close to ;R $ercent of them to Euro$e. ow it is o$ening sales offices in ew Jor&, !hicago and +os Angeles in $re$aration

for a $ush into the American mar&et ne=t Fe%ruary. 'o hel$ Sun>one, the munici$al government transferred to the com$any acres of valua%le ur%an land close to downtown at a %argain#%asement $rice. 'hat reduced the com$any7s costsand greatly increased its worth and attractiveness to investors. 3eanwhile, a state %an& is $re$aring to lend to the com$any at alow interest rate, and the $rovincial government is sweetening the deal %y reim%ursing the com$any for most of the interest $ayments, to hel$ Sun>one

dou%le its $roduction ca$acity. Heavily su%sidi>ed land and loans for an e=$orter li&e Sun>one are the rule, not the e=ce$tion, forclean energy %usinesses in !hangsha and across !hina, !hinese e=ecutives said in interviews over the last three months. 8ut this &ind of hel$

violates World 'rade 5rgani>ation rules %anning virtually all su%sidies to e=$orters, and could %e successfullychallenged at the agency7s tri%unals in Geneva, said !harlene 8arshefs&y, who was the United States trade re$resentative during the second

!linton administration and negotiated the terms of !hina7s entry to the organi>ation in @@:. f the country with the su%sidies fails toremove them, other countries can retaliate %y im$osing stee$ tariffs on im$orts from that country . 8ut multinationacom$anies and trade associations in the clean energy %usiness, as in many other industries, have %een wary of filing trade cases, fearing !hinese officialsre$utation for retaliating against "oint ventures in their country and $otentially denying mar&et access to any com$any that ta&es sides against !hina. W.'.5. rules allow countries to su%sidi>e goods and services in their home mar&ets, as long as those su%sidies do not discriminate against im$orts. 8utthe rules $rohi%it e=$ort su%sidies, to $revent governments from trying to hel$ their com$anies gain in world mar&ets. 'he W.'.5. also reMuirescountries to declare all national, state and local su%sidies every two years, so that if one country7s e=$orts surge sus$iciously, other countries7 trade

officials can easily chec& to see if that $roduct is %eing su%sidi>ed. 8ut !hina has virtually ignored the reMuirement since "oiningthe W.'.5. !ontending that it is still a develo$ing country struggling to understand its commitments, !hina has

filed "ust one list of su%sidies, which were in $lace %etween @@: and @@<. And that one list covered only central government $olicies while omittinglocal or $rovincial su%sidies. 'he !hinese mission to the W.'.5., which is $art of !hina7s commerce ministry, would not comment for this article. Afterreading Muestions 'he ew Jor& 'imes su%mitted %y fa= last wee&, mission officials declined to res$ond, saying that any comments might affect !hina7sstanding in other trade dis$utes. Sun>one and other !hinese clean energy com$anies also %enefit from the fact that the government s$ends : %illion aday intervening in the currency mar&ets so that !hinese e=$orts %ecome more afforda%le in foreign mar&ets. Systematic intervention in currency mar&etsto o%tain an advantage in trade violates the rules of the nternational 3onetary Fund, of which !hina is a mem%er, although the .3.F. has little $ower to

$unish violators. !hinese wind and solar $ower manufacturers further %enefit from the government7s im$osition ofshar$ reductions this summer in e=$orts of raw materials, &nown as rare earths, that are crucial for solar $anels and

wind tur%ines. !hina mines almost all of the world7s rare earths. W.'.5. rules %an most e=$ort restrictions. 5f course, !hina7s success in cleanenergy also stems from assets en"oyed %y many of the nation7s industries( low la%or costs, e=$anding universities that groom lots of engineering talent,ine=$ensive construction and ever#im$roving trans$ortation and telecommunications networ&s. For e=am$le, engineers with freshly issued %achelor7sdegrees can %e found here in Hunan Province for a salary of only a%out ,<@ a year 6 not significantly more than %lue#collar wor&ers with vocationalschool degrees can ma&e. 8ut the fuel $ro$elling clean energy com$anies in !hina lies in advantages $rovided %y the government, e=ecutives say. 5thercountries also try to hel$ their clean energy industries, too, %ut not to the e=tent that !hina does 6 and not, so far at least, to the $oint of $otentiallyrunning afoul of W.'.5. rules. o dou%t !hina7s aggressive tactics are ma&ing clean energy more afforda%le. Solar $anel $rices have dro$$ed %y nearlyhalf in the last two years, and wind tur%ine $rices have fallen %y a Muarter 6 $artly %ecause of the glo%al financial crisis %ut mainly %ecause of !hina7sra$id e=$ansion in these sectors and the accom$anying economies of scale. +arge !hinese wind tur%ines now sell for a%out 2R,@@@ $er megawatt ofca$acity, while Western wind tur%ines cost 2R@,@@@ a megawatt. 'he Muestion is whether !hina is %uilding this industry in ways that are unfair tooverseas com$etitors and ma&e other nations overly de$endent on a !hinese industry whose a$$roach to the %usiness may not %e economically or$olitically sustaina%le. 8ecause !hina7s clean energy industry has relied so heavily on land deals and chea$ state#su$$orted loans, the industry could %e

vulnera%le if !hina7s real estate %u%%le %ursts, or if the %an&s7 loose lending creates financial $ro%lems of the sort that have $lagued Western financialmar&ets in recent years. ther countries ma" also become less enthusiastic about subsi&i$in' renewableener'" if it means importin' more 'oo&s from China instea& of creatin' .obs at home/



US–0apan RelationsUS-0apan relations resilient% cooperation on a wi&e ran'e of issues an& en& of tensionsRTT )ews 1233-)'' ews, /US, a$an to strengthen security, defense coo$eration,0 CC::, htt$(CCwww.rttnews.comC!ontentC'o$Stories.as$=Od:R:<2?QS3:, !!4

n order to address the evolving regional and glo%al security environment, the United States and a$an have agreed to ensure thesecurity of a$an and strengthen $eace and sta%ility in the Asia#Pacific region as well as to enhance theca$a%ility to address a variety of contingencies affecting the two allies. At the end of the Security !onsultative !ommittee-S!!4 meeting in Washington %etween U.S. State Secretary Hillary )odham !linton and *efense Secretary )o%ert Gates and their a$anese

counter$arts 'a&ea&i 3atsumoto and 'oshimi 9ita>awa, a com$rehensive "oint statement articulating common strategico%"ectives and efforts to enhance the U.S.#a$an alliance was released. 8ased on the assessment of the changing security

environment, they reviewed and u$dated the Alliances !ommon Strategic 5%"ectives and too& the following decisions( *eter $rovocations %yorth 9orea and achieve its denucleari>ationT Strengthen trilateral security and defense coo$eration with %oth

Australia and South 9orea. Encourage !hinas res$onsi%le and constructive role in regional sta%ility and $ros$erity, itscoo$eration on glo%al issues, and its adherence to international norms of %ehavior, while %uilding trust among the United States, a$an and !hina.

m$rove o$enness and trans$arency with res$ect to !hinas military moderni>ation and activities and, strengthen confidence %uildingmeasures. While welcoming the $rogress to date in im$roving cross#Strait relations, encourage the $eaceful resolution of cross#Strait issues through

dialogue. )eali>e full normali>ation of a$an#)ussia relations through resolution of the orthern 'erritories issue. *iscourage the

$ursuit and acMuisition of military ca$a%ilities that could desta%ili>e the regional security environment. Strengthen security coo$erationamong the United States, a$an, and ASEA and su$$ort ASEAs efforts to $romote democratic values and a unified mar&et economy.

Welcome ndia as a strong and enduring Asia#Pacific $artner and encourage ndias growing engagement with the region.

Promote trilateral dialogue among the United States, a$an, and ndia. Promote effective coo$eration through regional networ&s and rule#ma&ingmechanisms, including the ASEA )egional Forum, the ASEA *efense 3inisters 3eeting#Plus, Asia Pacific Economic !oo$eration, and the East Asia

Summit. Promote non#$roliferation and reduction of wea$ons of mass destruction and their means of delivery,and hold states accounta%le for violating their non#$roliferation o%ligations. 3aintain safety and security of the maritimedomain %y defending the $rinci$le of freedom of navigation, including $reventing and eradicating $iracy, ensuring free and o$en trade and commerce,and $romoting related customary international law and agreements. !onsult on efforts to enhance the a%ility of the United ations Security !ouncil-US!4 to carry out its mandate and effectively meet the challenges of the new century through reform, loo&ing forward to an e=$anded !ouncil thatincludes a$an as a $ermanent mem%er. Ensure rans full com$liance with its international o%ligations and return to the PR: nuclear tal&s. As $art ofthe dual#trac& a$$roach, the United States and a$an will continue ro%ust im$lementation of US! )esolutions. Su$$ort Pa&istans efforts to strengthen

civilian governance and to im$lement economic reforms. Addressing the media after the S!! meeting, informally &nown as the 3inisterial, Gatessaid the U.S. remains committed to maintaining a ro%ust forward $resence in East Asia. He added that it iscritical that Iwe move forward with the relocation of US military %ase in Futenma and construction of facilitiesin Guam for the U.S. 3arines to reduce the im$act of our $resence on local residents in 5&inawa whileallowing us to maintain ca$a%ilities critical to the alliance in a$an.I a$anese *efense 3inister 'oshimi 9ita>awa

said it had %een decided on the v#sha$e configuration for the runways in connection with the Futenma relocation issue, and to remove the

deadline of @:< for its com$letion, in order to avoid the continued use of Futenma Air Station. 8oth sidesagreed to earliest $ossi%le relocation. 5&inawans, who have long hosted the %ul& of U.S. forces in a$an, strongly o$$oses the move torelocate the US %ase to !am$ Schwa% on the east coast of ago !ity in northern 5&inawa.

4conomic inter&epen&ence makes relations collapse impossibleCooper (# S$ecialist in international trade and finance# congressional research service re$ort-William H, / U.S.#a$an Economic )elations( Significance, Pros$ects, and Policy 5$tions,0C::C:@, htt$(CCwww.dtic.milCcgi#%inCGet')*ocO A*A*AR:@:Q+ocationUQdocGet')*oc.$df, Pg , !!4

a$an and the United States are the two largest economic $owers. 'ogether they account for over @N of world domestic

$roduct, for a significant $ortion of international trade in goods and services, and for a ma"or $ortion of international investment. 'his economicclout ma&es the United States and a$an $otentially $owerful actors in the world economy . Economic conditions in the

United States and a$an have a significant im$act on the rest of the world. Furthermore, the U.S.#a$an %ilateral economic relationshi$

can influence economic conditions in other countries. 'he U.S.#a$an economic relationshi$ is very strong andmutually advantageous. 'he two economies are highly integrated via trade in goods and services6they are largemar&ets for each other7s e=$orts and im$ortant sources of im$orts. 3ore im$ortantly, a$an and the United Statesare closely connected via ca$ital flow s. a$an is a ma"or foreign source of financing of the U.S. national de%t and will li&ely remain so forthe foreseea%le future, as the mounting U.S. de%t needs to %e financed and the stoc& of U.S. domestic savings remains insufficient to meet the demand.

a$an is also a significant source of foreign $rivate $ortfolio and direct investment in the United States, and theUnited States is the origin of much of the foreign investment in a$an.

Relations resilient- econom" Cooper (# S$ecialist in international trade and finance# congressional research service re$ort-William H, / U.S.#a$an Economic )elations( Significance, Pros$ects, and Policy 5$tions,0C::C:@, htt$(CCwww.dtic.milCcgi#%inCGet')*ocO A*A*AR:@:Q+ocationUQdocGet')*oc.$df, Pg R#, !!4

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'he U.S. and a$anese economies remain closely intertwined through trade and ca$ital flows. U.S. anda$anese $olitical leaders have not always given the U.S.#a$an relationshi$ the $riority commensurate withits economic im$ortanceT nevertheless, the data and other indicators suggest that the relationshi$ %earsattention. 'he a$anese and U.S. Economies 'he U.S. and a$anese economies are in some res$ects very similar. 'hey are large industriali>edeconomies that have $rovided their residents with a high standard of living. However, as 'a%le : $oints out, they are very different in some critical ways.'he U.S. economy is roughly V times larger than a$an7s %oth on a nominal and $urchasing $ower $arity -PPP4 %asis.: 'he a$anese standard of livingis slightly lower than the U.S. standard of living measured on a nominal $er ca$itaCG*P %asis and even lower when measured on a PPP $er ca$itaCG*P %asis. -'he latter measurement reflects the high cost in a$an for food, fuel and other %asic necessities com$ared to the United States.4 a$an has alsoendured slow economic growth or even recessions during the $ast decade while U.S. economic growth had %een generally ro%ust, at least until recently.'he U.S. average annual G*P growth rate during the last :@ years -@@@#@@;4 has %een more than times that of a$an7s. a$an has %een es$ecially hihard %y the glo%al economic downturn. n @@;, its G*P declined R.:N, while the United States7 G*P declined .RN. E=$orts are slightly more im$ortant

to the a$anese economy than are im$orts as measured as ratios to G*P, while im$orts are more significant than e=$orts in the U.S. economy. 'heUnited States continually incurs current account deficits. a$an had %een earning current account sur$luses,

although the sur$luses have %een decreasing due to diminishing demand for a$an7s e=$orts -a result of the glo%al economic downturn4. a$an hascontinually e=ceeded the United States in terms of savings. 'he gross national savings rate in a$an is more than V times that of

the United States -N vs. ;N4. 3any economists consider the strong $ro$ensity to save in a$an relative to the UnitedStates as the $rimary reason why the United States has incurred current account trade deficits with a$an formany years and why a$an continues to %e a ma"or net creditor while the United States is a net de%tor. At the sametime, a$an has %uilt u$ a huge volume of $u%lic de%t, and its de%t %urden as a ratio of G*P is more than twice that of the United States. a$an7s $u%licde%t has soared in the last decade as it has attem$ted to stimulate growth with e=tra government s$ending.

Relations resilient- stron' political ties an& &epen&anc" Cooper (# S$ecialist in international trade and finance# congressional research service re$ort-William H, / U.S.#a$an Economic )elations( Significance, Pros$ects, and Policy 5$tions,0C::C:@, htt$(CCwww.dtic.milCcgi#%inCGet')*ocO

A*A*AR:@:Q+ocationUQdocGet')*oc.$df, Pg :@#::, !!48y necessity, the United States and a$an had long given their %ilateral economic relationshi$ high $riority . For

a$an the im$ortance of the relationshi$ has %een rooted in the emergence of the United States as the world7s largest economic $owerT a$an7sde$endence on the United States for national security, es$ecially during the !old WarT the de$endence ofa$anese manufacturing industries6autos, consumer electronics, and others6on e=$orts to the United StatesTand the reliance of reform#minded a$anese $olitical leaders on U.S. $ressure, gaiatsu, to $ress for economic reforms in a

$olitical system that strongly $rotects the status Muo. For the United States, the im$ortance of the economic relationshi$ witha$an has %een grounded in its reliance on a$an as a critical allyT the emergence of a$an in the $ost#World

War $eriod as an economic $ower in East Asia and the second#largest economy in the worldT the advancingcom$etition from a$anese manufacturers in industries, for e=am$le autos and steel, which em$loy largenum%ers of U.S. wor&ersT the rising trade deficits with a$anT a$an7s emergence as a ma"or source ofinvestment in the United StatesT and a$anese government $olicies that have $rotected vulnera%le sectors and

assisted e=$orters, often at the e=$ense of U.S. com$etitors. For many years, the %ilateral economic relationshi$ was thecenter$iece of U.S. and a$anese foreign economic agendas, and a$anese trade strongly influenced thema&ing of overall U.S. trade $olicy . 3any scholarly and $o$ular %oo&s and "ournals were written on the su%"ect.;

Relations resilient- tsunami provesCal&er 5235 # *irector of the )eischauer !enter for East Asian Studies at the School of Advancednternational Studies at the ohns Ho$&ins University.-9ent E., /!risis will strengthen a$an#U.S. relations,0 CC::, htt$(CCglo%al$u%licsMuare.%logs.cnn.comC@::C@CCcrisis#will#strengthen#"a$an#u#s#relationsC , !!4

Prime 3inister aoto 9an la%eled his countrys earthMua&e and the ensuing tsunami /a$an7s worst disaster since World War .0 'here is much to su$$ort his assessment. f there are any silver linings, however, they7re li&ely on the $olitical side. a$an7sres$onse to this disaster re$resents a $otential watershed in U.S.#a$an relations, which have %een eroded %y 5&inawa

dis$utes over U.S. military %ases, $olitical turmoil in 'o&yo, and years of neglect. Prime 3inister 9an7s acce$tance of humanitarian

su$$ort from the U.S. military is un$recedented, des$ite the longstanding U.S.#a$an alliance. t contrasts shar$ly with reformist Prime 3inister 3urayama 'omiichi7s re"ection of analogous su$$ort from U.S. forces in a$an following the :;;R Hanshin -or 9o%e4

earthMua&e. 'he U.S. avy has dis$atched a relief flotilla of @ vessels to waters off a$an, including the aircraft carrier

)onald )eagan and the Seventh Fleet command shi$ 8lue )idge. A$art from search and rescue o$erations, U.S. forces havehel$ed o$en Sendai Air$ort, which was %adly damaged in the earthMua&e, and they7ve coo$erated with 'o&yo ElectricPower and a$anese Self *efense Forces to $revent a large#scale disaster at the Fu&ushima nuclear $lant. n that

effort, U.S. forces have $rovided fire engines, high#$ressure $um$ing vehicles, radiation#resistant $rotectivesuits, and Glo%al Haw& overhead surveillance. President 5%ama has am$lified the $ositive U.S.#a$anatmos$herics through a series of sensitive $ersonal gestures. He was Muic& to e=$ress condolences and e=tend offers of assistance,

as was Secretary of State Hillary !linton. He also visited the a$anese Em%assy $ersonally to convey those sentiments # a gesture well re$ortedin a$an. 5ngoing coo$eration in confronting the current crisis, cou$led with the $recarious yet argua%lyenhanced $olitical sta%ility in a$an, $aves the way for a $roductive scheduled summit %etween 9an and







5%ama in Washington, $ro%a%ly late in une. 8efore the crisis, $lans were already underway for em$hatic security declarations

strengthening alliance coo$eration. 8ut the earthMua&e crisis has given them an im$ortant /human security0element that has often %een missing from U.S.#a$an dialogue. Pro$osals ena%ling enhanced cultural e=change and wor&ingholidays for students are gaining momentum, am$lifying the %roadening $rocess.

Relations resilient- past issues proveTanaka ((# Senior fellow at the a$an !enter for nternational e=change-Hitoshi, /)einvigorating US#a$an relations,0 3arch @::, htt$(CCwww."cie.orgCresearch$dfsCEAC#.$df, !!4

'here has long %een a $erce$tion ga$ underlying US#a$an relations. n the R@ years since the revised US#a$an Security

'reaty was signed in :;@, numerous develo$ments have %een seen to %e $utting the relationshi$ in crisis. 'here was the /i=on Shoc&,0 when the US $resident visited !hina without consulting or even notifying a$an. 'here was the time when theUS secretary of state $roclaimed that a$an was /insensitive0 %ecause it was im$orting oil from ran during the hostage situation.

'here was the incident in which 'oshi%a 3achine violated the !oordinating !ommittee for E=$ort to!ommunist Areas agreements %y selling industrial eMui$ment to the Soviet Union during the height of the !old War. 'he mid:;2@s saweconomic friction %etween the United States and a$an $ea& . And then there were tensions surrounding a$an7scontri%ution to the first Gulf War. 5n 5&inawa, there have %een incidences of ra$e %y American soldiers andthe conflict over %asing issues. 5n to$ of all of that, there was the Ehime 3aru incident, in which several a$anese high schoolstudents died when their fishery training %oat was hit %y a US avy su%marine. n the United States, a$an isoften $erceived as not adeMuately fulfilling its role as an alliance $artner. At the same time, many in a$an holda dee$#seated $erce$tion that their country is %eing treated li&e a de$endent %y the United States. 'hea$anese side has %een $articularly $rone to ma&ing $roclamations that the relationshi$ is in crisis every timethere is an isolated incident. )ecogni>ing this $erce$tion ga$ %etween the two countries, every time there is aUS#a$an summit, our leaders s$ea& with a common voice to em$hasi>e that the United States and a$anen"oy an /eMual $artnershi$,0 a $hrase that was uttered es$ecially often %y former Prime 3inister Hatoyama.

Relations resilient- constantl" improvin' &espite roa&blocksTanaka ((# Senior fellow at the a$an !enter for nternational e=change-Hitoshi, /)einvigorating US#a$an relations,0 3arch @::, htt$(CCwww."cie.orgCresearch$dfsCEAC#.$df, !!4

'he two countries have come to understand that managing US#a$an relations reMuires %earing in mind the different rolesthat each country $lays. a$an has e=$anded its role so that it can ta&e on greater res$onsi%ilities in the

international community, and the United States has %egun showing greater concern for a$an7s sensitivities regarding the

United States. 5n the security side, not only has a$an strengthened its contri%utions %y increasing its defense %udget and e=$anding its host nation su$$ort for US troo$s, %ut it has also shown $rogress in ada$ting its

security strategy . For e=am$le, over the $ast two decades, a$an %egan $artici$ating in $eace&ee$ing o$erations, created the Guidelines for a$an#US *efense !oo$eration, $assed legislation to %etter ena%le it to defend itself and su$$ort o$erations %y its allies, and dis$atched a$an Self#*efense

Forces to the ndian 5cean to hel$ with refueling for US#led forces in Afghanistan and to raM to $rovide humanitarian assistance for reconstruction. 5nthe economic side, a$an7s official develo$ment assistance grew ra$idly, and the country has %een $romotingfree trade and deregulation. 'he United States has welcomed these actions, em$hasi>ing consultation witha$an as an alliance $artner and attem$ting to deal with sensitive issues Muic&ly. For the most $art, the governmentsof %oth countries have managed the alliance relationshi$ effectively , $roving the late Am%assador 3ansfield7s assertion that/the US#a$an relationshi$ is the most im$ortant %ilateral relationshi$ in the world, %ar none.0

http://www.jcie.org/researchpdfs/EAI/6-2.pdf






US–In&ia RelationsDespite small inci&ents% overall US-In&ia relations can onl" improve

6in&ustan Times 125 B Muoting the chief US am%assador to ndia-Hindustan 'imes, /ndia#US ties on right trac&,0 C@C::, htt$(CCwww.hindustantimes.comCews#FeedCnewdelhiCndia#US#ties#on#right#trac&CArticle:#?:R?<R.as$=, !!4

'he US Am%assador said that though every now and then there is an incident that ta&es $lace either in ndia or in theUS, the %igger $icture suggests that the two countries have moved in a $ositive direction in the last ten years.

I We are wor&ing together in un$recedented ways in intelligence sharing and counter#terrorism. How we are wor&ing together across the glo%e on regional $eace efforts,I he said. 5n the last day in his office, )oemer said, I'his has %een a

$henomenal two years for me and my family. We are very grateful to not only the leadershi$ in ndia %ut to the $eo$le of ndia for their hos$itality. 'heoutgoing US Am%assador said in the last two years, there has %een a Isignificant successI in relationshi$ %etween theUS and ndia. I We have seen Prime 3inister 3anmohan Singh %e honoured in the first state dinner given %y the 5%amaadministration and then we saw the President of the United States come to ndia with an historic and landmar&

visit tal&ing a%out ndias glo%al relationshi$ with the US,I )oemer said. 8efore $roceeding for a meeting with the Prime 3inister,he said, I have ndia not only in my %rain and in my stomach, %ut in my %lood. am sure you will continue to see a lot of me in the future with this greatrelationshi$.I

Relations resilient- common interestsThe 4conomic Times 1237-'he Economic 'imes, /t7s in US interest to su$$ort ndia7s rise( cong committee,0 CRC::, htt$(CCarticles.economictimes.indiatimes.comC@::#@#RCnewsC;?@;R;D:Dnaval#e=ercises#arms#sales#c#:@"#military#trans$ort#aircraft, !!4

WASHG'5( Asserting that it is in the US interest to su$$ort ndias rise through military#to#military ties, arms

sales and e=ercises, a &ey !ongressional committee has sought a re$ort from Pentagon %y ovem%er : on afive#year action $lan to strengthen %ilateral defence relations. 'he $owerful Senate Armed Services !ommittee said it %elieves thata dee$ening glo%al strategic $artnershi$ %etween the US and ndia will %e critical to the maintenance and e=$ansion of a rules#%ased international

system that $romotes freedom, democracy, security, $ros$erity and the rule of law in the :st century. It is in the national interest of theUnited States, through military#to#military relations, arms sales, %ilateral and multilateral "oint e=ercises and other means, to su$$ort ndiasrise and %uild a strategic and military culture of coo$eration and intero$era%ility %etween our two countries, in$articular with regard to the ndo#Pacific region,I said the ndia section of the committees latest <#$age re$ort. 'he committee noted that com%inednaval e=ercises, conducted %etween the United States and ndia, have %ecome a vital $illar of sta%ility, security and free and o$en trade, in the ndo#

Pacific region and %eyond. I)ecent US arms sales to ndia, including !#:@ military trans$ort aircraft, a US am$hi%ious trans$ort doc&,

UH#H Sea 9ing helico$ters, counter#%attery radar sets, and P#2 maritime surveillance aircraft, have %enefited the United States andndia ali&e, increasing commonality of military eMui$ment $latforms and contri%uting to security in the ndo#Pacific region,I the re$ort said. t also noted that ndia recently announced its intention to $urchase :@ !#:? Glo%emaster aircraft.

In&ia-US relations resilient- economic tiesSchroe&er 1238# 3ar&etwatch re$orter in washington-)o%ert, /U.S., ndia say they will dee$en economic ties,0 C2C::, htt$(CCwww.mar&etwatch.comCstoryCus#india#say#they#will#dee$en#economic#ties#@::#@#2Oreflin&3WDnewsDstm$, !!4

ndia is $lanning to raise : trillion in infrastructure financing %y @:?. ndian Finance 3inister Prana% 3u&her"ee said

financing was one of the areas of discussion %etween himself and Geithner on 'uesday and that there is new o$$ortunity forU.S. investors /for wor& in this area.0 3u&her"ee and Geithner met for the second annual gathering of the U.S.#ndia Economic and

Financial Partnershi$. Federal )eserve !hairman 8en 8ernan&e and ndian central %an& chief *. Su%%arao also $artici$ated in the meetings, held

3onday and 'uesday. n a "oint statement, the two countries agreed to dee$en economic and financial ties, including wor&ing on financial sector reforms in ndia. / American com$anies still face %arriers in ndia in sectors such as

%an&ing, insurance, manufacturing, multi#%rand retail and infrastructure,0 Geithner said 'uesday. He said easing those %arriers /would %ean im$ortant ste$ toward integrating our economies.0 ndia %egan deregulating its economy in the early :;;@s %ut the U.S. wants tosee a faster $ace. ndia, whose economy grew :@.<N last year, was the United States7 Rth largest trading $artner in @@@ and is now the :th largest U.Strading $artner, according to the 'reasury *e$artment. Geithner also %riefly s$o&e a%out tal&s %etween the White House and congressional )e$u%licans

aimed at avoiding a default %y the U.S. government in August. He said there7s a very good chance !ongress will act to avoid default and also restore/fiscal sustaina%ility.0 Earlier 'uesday, White House Press Secretary ay !arney said tal& a%out raising the de%t ceiling would continue %etweenPresident 8arac& 5%ama and Senate )e$u%lican +eader 3itch 3c!onnell. 'he two men met 3onday in an effort to restart negotiations that had %oggeddown over ta=es.

US-In&ia relations resilient- can overcome an" roa&blocks,lake 12(9 # Assistant Secretary, 8ureau of South and !entral Asian Affairs-)o%ert 5., /U.S.#ndia 8usiness +in&s and Pros$ects for the Future US state de$artment $ress releaseX,0 C:?C::,htt$(CCwww.scoo$.co.n>CstoriesCW5::@CS@@<2?Cus#india#%usiness#lin&s#and#$ros$ects#for#the#future.htm, !!4

have %een $rivileged to hel$ advance the US#ndia $artnershi$ since first started wor&ing in ndia in @@. have seen first#hand how committedgovernment leaders wor&ing hand#in#hand with the %usiness community and %uttressed %y strong $eo$le#to#$eo$le ties can transform a %ilateral relationshi$. 8road, %i$artisan $olitical su$$ort in %oth countries hasdriven our countries closer together over the last decade, and ensures that this relationshi$ will continue to %ea mainstay of American and ndian foreign $olicy, regardless of who is in $ower. 5ver the last decade, %eginning with

http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/newdelhi/India-US-ties-on-right-track/Article1-715745.aspx


http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-06-25/news/29702959_1_naval-exercises-arms-sales-c-130j-military-transport-aircraft


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-india-say-they-will-deepen-economic-ties-2011-06-28?reflink=MW_news_stmp


http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1106/S00487/us-india-business-links-and-prospects-for-the-future.htm










President !linton7s landmar& visit in @@@, to the civil nuclear deal negotiated %y the 8ush Administration, to the greatly e=$anded strategic $artnershi$

esta%lished %y President 5%ama and Prime 3inister Singh, we have fundamentally transformed the way the United States andndia wor& together. President 5%ama7s tri$ last ovem%er will %e remem%ered as a watershed, when the U.S. andndia em%ar&ed for the first time on concrete initiatives to wor& together glo%ally. )eflecting thecom$rehensive nature of our %ilateral engagement, the President7s visit resulted in new milestones across

virtually every field of human endeavor, from civil nuclear coo$eration to regional consultations, from energy to food security.

US-In&ia relations resilient- economic inter&epen&ence,lake 12(9 # Assistant Secretary, 8ureau of South and !entral Asian Affairs-)o%ert 5., /U.S.#ndia 8usiness +in&s and Pros$ects for the Future US state de$artment $ress releaseX,0 C:?C::,

htt$(CCwww.scoo$.co.n>CstoriesCW5::@CS@@<2?Cus#india#%usiness#lin&s#and#$ros$ects#for#the#future.htm, !!4

5f course, don7t need to remind this audience that our %usiness ties re$resent one of the most vi%rant features of the U.S.#ndia $artnershi$. n fact, many of you here today have $layed a &ey role in hel$ing transform the economic relationshi$. And what a

transformation it has %eenY 'he ndian economy of today is the second fastest#growing in the world B e=$anding at a rate of over2 $ercent annually. 'he ndian economy has $roduced some of the world7s leading multinational cor$orations, which create innovative goods andservices, and $resent novel %usiness models for the other countries. However, as the ndian government itself ac&nowledges, growth $resents its ownchallenges. How to manage growth in a way that includes the most vulnera%le in society has %een a to$ focus of the ndian government. n the $rivatesector, %usinesses would li&e to %e a%le to move faster. ndia has em%ar&ed u$on a ma"or $eriod of infrastructure u$grades, which, once com$leted will vastly lower the transaction and time costs of doing %usiness. 5ther challenges mentioned %y ndian and other com$anies include corru$tion and lac& oftrans$arency. ndeed, ndia ran&s :< out of :2 countries in the World 8an&7s inde= of /Ease of *oing 8usiness.0 am confident that ndian %usinessand $olicyma&ers together will overcome these challenges to unleash even greater growth to %enefit all. 'he future of ndia7s economy loo&s very %right6and very young. For e=am$le, ndia will li&ely have the world7s third largest economy in the year @@ and the largest %y @R@. ndia7s $o$ulation will

%ecome the largest %y @@ as well. At a time when much of the industriali>ed world is shrin&ing as well as aging, half ofndia7s $o$ulation is under age R. 'hat large and youthful wor& force is a growing strategic advantage, $rovided these young $eo$le can get

the :st century education they will need to com$ete. According to one study, ndia will have R $ercent of the world7s wor&force %y @R. 'heincredi%le growth of ndia7s economy has resulted in $ositive s$illover effects for the United States. A Muic&loo& at the data reveals a trade relationshi$ that is accelerating, mutually %eneficial, and relatively %alanced.

8etween @@ and @@;, U.S. goods e=$orts to ndia Muadru$led, growing from <.: %illion in @@ to more than :.< %illion in @@;,

and U.S. services e=$orts to ndia more than tri$led, increasing from . %illion in @@ to more than ;.; %illion in @@;. U.S.

e=$orts to ndia have grown faster than e=$orts to $ractically all other countries in the world. @:@ %ro&e records for U.S.#ndia trade ingoods with U.S. e=$orts to ndia u$ :?N and U.S. im$orts from ndia u$ <@N. 'his surge of nearly @N to a high of <2.2 %illion in goods trade movedndia u$ two notches to %ecome our :th largest goods trading $artner. 'his $ositive trend continues, with two#way goods trade u$ :;N in the first

Muarter of @:: over the same time $eriod last year. 5ur trade with ndia is also very much a two#way e=change with mutual %enefits to %oth our countries. )o%ust two#way trade means citi>ens from 9ol&ata to 9ansas will see the %enefits ofour trade engagement. ndia is also a growing source of foreign direct investment into the United States. 'he total stoc& of F* from ndia to theUnited States stood at almost R.R %illion at the end of @@;. t has grown at a com$ound annual growth rate of R $ercent during the @@< to @@; time$eriod, ma&ing ndia the ?th fastest#growing source of investment in the United States. ndian com$anies invest heavily in many U.S. industries such as

energy and information technology, and we e=$ect their investments to increase. 'he character of our trade with ndia is alsorelatively %alanced. n a glo%al economy where America7s trade relations in some cases have a %alance favoringthe other nation, the fact that ndia7s e=$orts to the U.S. are relatively eMual to its im$orts is im$ortant to note.5ur trade with ndia also encom$asses a %road range of sectors. U.S. e=$orts to ndia include aircraft, electricalmachinery, chemicals, $lastics, $harmaceuticals, vehicles, railway eMui$ment, and steel.

US-In&ia relations resilient- Intellectual inter&epen&enc" ,lake 12(9 # Assistant Secretary, 8ureau of South and !entral Asian Affairs-)o%ert 5., /U.S.#ndia 8usiness +in&s and Pros$ects for the Future US state de$artment $ress releaseX,0 C:?C::,htt$(CCwww.scoo$.co.n>CstoriesCW5::@CS@@<2?Cus#india#%usiness#lin&s#and#$ros$ects#for#the#future.htm, !!4

n an age where innovation, entre$reneurshi$ and economic $ower are as im$ortant as military and $olitical$ower6a sentiment articulated %y +es Gel% last year in his Foreign Affairs essay, /G*P ow 3atters 3ore than Force0##America7s future will rest on

the $ower of our &nowledge, ideas, and economy. n this conte=t, we see no %etter $artner than ndia, and in ndia, West 8engal7s legacy as

an academic and cultural fulcrum ma&es this state a $ivotal $art of our $artnershi$. American %usinesses see in ndia a vi%rantla%oratory for research and innovation that will $roduce tomorrow7s goods and services. 'he com$le=,multifaceted environment in ndia allows com$anies and entre$reneurs to test and validate multi$le strategiesand solutions. ncreasingly, these solutions will %e a$$lica%le not "ust to ndia or the U.S., %ut to the world at large .

9ol&ata7s historical $osition as a gateway of Asia will hel$ disseminate those %rea&throughs to 8angladesh and Southeast Asia. 'he challenges ofo$erating in ndia reMuire ada$ta%ility and fle=i%ility, which have led to new %usiness models, including $ay#as#you#go a$$roaches, and selling consumer

$roducts in small sachets through a networ& of rural women entre$reneurs. 'he /%ottom of the $yramid0 insight is now acce$ted wisdom( it is $ossi%le to mo%ili>e the $ower of the mar&ets, in colla%oration with G5s and communities inneed, to ma&e a $ositive and sustaina%le difference in the lives of the $oor.







US–Russia Relations



Inevitable

Alt causes &ama'in' Russian relations – #T% ,:D% tra&e ties% an& nukesCharap (( -C::C::, Samuel, Associate *irector for )ussia and Eurasia and a mem%er of the ational Securityand nternational Policy team at the !enter for American Progress, interview with )ianovosti, a )ussian newsagency, /U.S.#)ussian relations( 'he reset $rocess may not %e irreversi%le,0htt$(CCen.rian.ruCvaldaiDo$C@::@::C:;<;2:.html4

don7t thin& ice President oe 8iden7s visit was at all connected to the u$coming $residential elections in the United States. 8ut the fact that he met

with %oth mem%ers of the )ussian governing tandem in 3oscow indicates that the United States is ready to coo$erate with either man after the elections whoever the )ussians elect. n my o$inion, domestic $olitical $rocesses and election results in )ussia and the UnitedStates could influence the relationshi$. f the current $residents are re#elected, the elections7 outcome will notinfluence it, %ut internal $olitical tensions during the election $eriod sometimes affect a country7s foreign$olicy actionsZ As for the most $romising areas of U.S.#)ussian relations, %ilateral coo$eration is $ossi%le inmany s$heres, from economic &evelopment to strate'ic nuclear weapons/ The imme&iate issueson their a'en&a inclu&e Russias accession to the #orl& Tra&e r'ani$ation% cooperation on

ballistic missile &efense% an& &evelopin' tra&e an& economic ties. am not sure that we have entered a $hase of

%ilateral relations where the current $ositive atmos$here could %e said to %e irreversi%le. n my o$inion, we have not "et &isarme& allthe time bombs that still threaten to take our relations back to where the" were 3/7 "ears a'o .

thin& that, unfortunately, should certain circumstances arise, this $rocess could %e reversed.

http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20110311/162949812.html




Resilient

Russian relations resilient – relationship &efine& b" &iver'ent c"cles;enenko (( -C:C::, Ale=ei, leading researcher at the )ussian Academy of Sciences nstitute fornternational Security, /'he !yclical ature of )ussian#American )elations,0htt$(CCen.rian.ruCvaldaiDo$C@::@:C:<?;[email protected]

'here is nothing s$ecial or unusual a%out the current difficulties. 5ver the $ast twenty years, %oth )ussia andthe United States have e=$erienced several cycles of convergence and divergence in their %ilateral relations/ Itseems that :oscow an& #ashin'ton are &oome& to repeat these c"cles time an& a'ain/ Suchchanges in %ilateral relations are no mere coincidence. )ussia and the United States %ase their relations onmutual nuclear deterrence. 'he material and technical foundations for )ussian#American relations differ littlefrom those under$inning the Soviet#American relations of the :;2@s. 'hus, these cycles of )ussian#Americanra$$rochement are due to two factors. First comes the desire to consistently reduce aging nuclear systems sothat during disarmament neither $arty ris&ed destroying the military#strategic $arity. Second, the reaction to ama"or military#$olitical crisis after which the $arties see& to reduce confrontation and u$date the rules ofconduct in the military#$olitical s$here. After confronting these tas&s, )ussia and the United States returned toa state of low intensity confrontation. 'he first ra$$rochement cycle was o%served in the early :;;@s. Jeltsin7sgovernment needed U.S. su$$ort in recogni>ing )ussia within the :;;: %orders of the )SFS). 8oris Jeltsin alsoneeded U.S. assistance in addressing the $ro%lem of the Soviet /nuclear legacy0 and ta&ing on the Su$reme!ouncil. 'he administrations of George 8ush Senior and 8ill !linton were willing to hel$ the 9remlin solve

these $ro%lems. However, the Americans demanded ma"or strategic concessions from )ussia in return,outlined in S'A)'#( ma&ing the elimination of heavy intercontinental %allistic missiles a $riority. 'he$arties reached an unofficial com$romise( U.S. recognition of the )ussian leadershi$ in e=change for the ra$iddecrease in )ussia7s strategic nuclear forces -SF4. However, the stronger )ussian state institutions %ecame,the wea&er the im$etus to the ra$$rochement. n autumn :;;<, )ussia refused to ratify the original version ofS'A)'# and declared A'57s eastward e=$ansion unacce$ta%le. 'he United States ado$ted the conce$t of/mutually assured safety0 -anuary :;;R4 under which )ussia7s democratic reforms Mualified as inse$ara%lefrom continued armament reduction. 'he /5verview of U.S. nuclear $olicy0 in :;;< also confirmed that

America deemed )ussian strategic nuclear forces a $riority threat. 'he crises that unfolded during the late:;;@s in ran and Jugoslavia were, li&e A'5 e=$ansion, the logical results of a restoration of the old a$$roachto Soviet#American relations. t was actually the events of :;;<, not @@@, that in fact $redetermined thesu%seMuent develo$ment of )ussian#American relations. 'he second cycle of )ussian#American

ra$$rochement was also rooted in strategic considerations. n @@@ S'A)'# and the A83 'reaty colla$sed.8oth Washington and 3oscow were faced with the $ro%lem of their agreed decommissioning of nuclearsystems dating %ac& to the :;?@s. 'hese events $ushed $residents ladimir Putin and George W. 8ush to reacha strategic com$romise at a meeting in !rawford -: ovem%er @@:4. 'he United States agreed to sign a newStrategic 5ffensive )eductions 'reaty -S5)'4, and )ussia did not o%"ect to Washington7s withdrawal from the

A83 'reaty. nstead of the A83 'reaty, the $arties signed the 3oscow *eclaration on 3ay <, @@, under which the United States $ledged to consult with )ussia on all issues $ertaining to missile defense de$loyment.However, after the /com$romise at !rawford,0 the agenda for )ussian#American ra$$rochement wase=hausted. 'he dis$utes %etween 3oscow and Washington over raM, ran, Georgia, U&raine and 8eslan, whichhad %een gathering steam since @@, necessitated a return to the traditional format for )ussian#Americanrelations. At the 8ratislava meeting -Fe%ruary <, @@R4 President ladimir Putin refused to acce$t George W.8ush7s suggestion of including issues of fissile material safety in the agenda. Since then, the /ra$$rochement0

%etween )ussia and the U.S. has reached a dead end, including at the official level.

US-Russian relations resilient – sp" inci&ent proves&e)esnera ( -C;C:@, Andre, writer for the oice of America, /S$y Scandal Will ot *erail US#)ussia)elations, Analysts Say.0 htt$(CCwww:.voanews.comCenglishCnewsCeuro$eCS$y#Scandal#Will#ot#*erail#US#)ussia#)elations#Analysts#Say#;?<@:;.html4

Steven Pifer of the 8roo&ings nstitution also Muestions whether the alleged s$y ring was effective. Ione of theindividuals ever succeeded in getting em$loyment with a U.S. government agency and there was no evidencethat any of them succeeded in ever getting access to classified information,I said Pifer. ISo a$$arently that wasthe decision, or those were the facts that led the ustice *e$artment to o$t for the lesser charge of %eing anundeclared agent for a foreign $ower.I Several )ussian officials have Muestioned the timing of the arrests,





saying it comes days after President 5%ama and )ussian President 3edvedev met in Washington andem$hasi>ed im$roved relations %etween the two countries. <ifer pre&icts the alle'e& sp"in' inci&ent

will not &ama'e U/S/-Russian relations/ II think this is 'oin' to be a minor bump,I said Pifer. I'he)ussian Foreign 3inistry said they were unha$$y a%out some as$ect of it, why was it announced now. Wellthere is never a good time to announce this sort of thing. 8ut it seems to me that the U/S/-Russiarelationship has pro'resse& a lot in the last (8 months, and thin& the relationshi$ has made enough$rogress where this is not going to %e a huge threat to it.I



A3 Relations Solve Acci&ental #ar)o acci&ental war – US-Russian relations &ont affect launch on warnin' s"stemsR"abikhin et/ al/ ! -une @@;, *r. +eonid )ya%i&hin -E=ecutive Secretary, !ommittee of Scientist for Glo%al Security and Arms !ontrolTSenior Fellow, East West nstitute4 i&tor 9oltunov -*e$uty *irector, nstitute for Strategic Sta%ility of )osatom4, *r. Eugene 3iasni&ov - Senior)esearch Scientist, !enter for Arms !ontrol, Energy and Environmental Studies4, /*e#alerting( *ecreasing the 5$erational )eadiness of Strategicuclear Forces[0 htt$(CCwww.ewi.infoCsystemCfilesC)ya%i&hin9oltunov3iasni&ov.$df4

Why did this ha$$enO Why do the ma"or nuclear $owers constantly vote against such resolutions or a%stain from votingO 'he United States

)e$resentative on %ehalf of the U.S., France and U9 stated in the First !ommittee of the UGA on 5cto%er ;, @@2 that the

)esolution is unacce$ta%leto these three states %ecause they disagree with the )esolutions main contention that the maintenance ofnuclear wea$ons system at a high level of readiness increases the ris& of the use of such wea$ons, including theunauthori>ed, unintentional or accidental use. I'he alert $ostures that we are in today are a$$ro$riate, given our strategy and guidanceand $olicy,I Air Force Gen. 9evin !hilton, who heads U.S. Strategic !ommand, said recently. t is &nown that )ussian and US strategic nuclear forces

are a%le to conduct three ty$es of com%at o$erations( $reventive -first4 stri&eT /launch on warning0 stri&eT and retaliatory stri&e. *uring the !old War %oth states considered the /launch on warning0 to %e the ma"or conce$t of deterrence strategy. 'hisconce$t has defined the necessity to maintain nuclear forces at the highest level of o$erational readiness. Inspite of &eep chan'es in US-Russia relations =launch on warnin'> continues to be the basis fornuclear &octrines of both states. Adherence to the /launch on warning0 conce$t is more im$ortant for)ussia than for the U.S. %ecause )ussian strategic nuclear $otential is %ased mostly in ground#launched !83in silos. Silo#%ased !83s sites are well &nown and vulnera%le against not only the !83 attac& %ut also against $recision guided missiles including

cruise missiles attac&. 'he U.S. has a more $owerful S+83 arsenal, which is less vulnera%le against first stri&e. )ussia also has ground mo%ile !83

systems which theoretically have a higher degree of surviva%ility %y maintaining the continuous random movement within the $ositioning area. Howeverin reality !83 ground mo%ile systems mostly stay in the stationary shelters, thus increasing the $ro%a%ility to %e destroyed %y a sur$rise attac&.

US-Russian relations &ont solve acci&ental war – hi'h alert status% economic &ifficulties% an&militar" supremac" fears:osher an& Schwart$ 5 -@@, *avid and +owell, *)A* senior $olicy analyst with e=$ertise in nuclear wea$ons $olicy and %allistic

missile defense A* [[)A* associate $olicy analyst, =E=cessive Force( Why )ussian and U.S. uclear Postures Per$etuate !old War )is&s,0htt$(CCwww.rand.orgC$u%licationsCrandreviewCissuesCfall@@Cforce.html4

'he $ast decade has %rought significant im$rovements in the relations %etween )ussia and the United States. At the $olitical level, the changes have %een demonstrated most noticea%ly %y )ussia7s active assistance in the war on terrorism, even hel$ing the United States to esta%lish %asing rights in!entral Asia. !hanges at the nuclear level have also %een nota%le, $articularly the 3ay @@ signing of the 3oscow 'reaty in which Presidents George W8ush and ladimir Putin each agreed to reduce their long#range nuclear warheads to :,?@@#,@@ %y the year @:. 'hat will %e down from a%out ,@@@

in each country in @@ and more than :@,@@@ each in :;;@. Despite these positive steps% the 'rave risk of acci&ental

or unauthori$e& use of nuclear weapons persists for three reasons/ First, %oth the United States and)ussia retain their !old War $ostures of &ee$ing their nuclear forces on high alert 6 ready to launch within afew minutes. nherent in these $ostures, which $romise the ra$id delivery of a massive nuclear retaliatorystri&e, is the distinct ris& of an accidental or unauthori>ed launch. Second, )ussia7s economic difficulties havee=acer%ated the $ro%lem. 'he country7s mo%ile nuclear forces 6 from truc&#%ased and rail#%asedintercontinental %allistic missiles to su%marine#%ased %allistic missiles 6 have %een decimated in %oth si>e andreadiness. Far from enhancing U.S. security, these vulnera%ilities could $ush )ussia toward a strategy ofMuic&ly launching its remaining forces at the first sign of an attac&, to ensure their utility . 'he economic difficulties havealso left the early#warning system in tatters and the military with morale and disci$line $ro%lems. An eroded command#and#control system has

increased the ris& that nuclear forces could %e launched %y terrorists or rogue commanders. 'hird, U.S. strengths intensify )ussian wea&nesses. 'he U.S. 'rident su%marine force, with its accurate missiles and $owerful warheads, continued toe=$and in the :;;@s, ma&ing a significant $ortion of )ussia7s silo#%ased missiles vulnera%le. As long as )ussiacould de$loy surviva%le mo%ile missiles and su%marines 6 which it could in the :;2@s 6 the country ensured

that enough of its forces would survive to retaliate against a U.S. stri&e. 8ut now, with only a few of )ussia7sforces a%le to leave their silos and with sometimes not even one su%marine at sea, the United States coulddeliver not "ust a retaliatory stri&e against )ussia %ut also a devastating first stri&e. 'his im%alance couldfurther heighten )ussia7s feelings of vulnera%ility and its incentive to launch its forces $reem$tively . 'here are three$rinci$al scenarios for accidental or unauthori>ed nuclear use. 'he first scenario is an intentional unauthori>ed launch %rought a%out %y terrorists or arogue military commander. 'he %rea&down of order in )ussia, the economic difficulties and low morale of its military $ersonnel, and the rise inorgani>ed crime and se$aratist violence have heightened this danger. 'he second scenario is a missile launched %y mista&e. Such a mista&e could resultfrom a malfunctioning wea$on system or a training accident. 'o date, )ussia and the United States have made great efforts to guard against suchaccidents. evertheless, the $ro%a%ility of a mista&en launch has never %een >ero, and the economic and social $ro%lems in )ussia have elevatedconcerns in the West a%out this $ro%lem. 'he third scenario is a nuclear wea$on launched intentionally %ut %ased on incorrect or incom$leteinformation. f early#warning systems malfunction, they could signal that an attac& is imminent when in fact it is not. 5r a nonthreatening event might %e misconstrued as an attac&. Without a clear, accurate $icture of what is ha$$ening around the glo%e, )ussia might confuse a %enign event -such as as$ace launch4 for a nuclear attac&. *uring the !old War, )ussia and the United States each develo$ed a two#tiered early#warning system -using radar onland and infrared sensors in s$ace4 to guard against such events. 8ut )ussia7s s$ace#%ased system is now essentially out of order, leaving the country



with only a flawed radar system and greatly increasing the chance that an erroneous indication of attac& could %e mista&en as real. 'han&fully, thisconcern is mitigated somewhat %y the im$roved state of U.S.#)ussian relations. U.S. and )ussian $olitical leaders today are less li&ely to %elieve they areunder deli%erate nuclear attac& than they were during the tense $eriods of the !old War. *es$ite the end of the !old War and real im$rovements inrelations, %oth countries continue to view each other in nuclear terms. 'he ris& of accidental or unauthori>ed use of nuclear wea$ons remainsunacce$ta%ly high. +imiting these dangers will reMuire not merely o$erational changes in the U.S. and )ussian nuclear $ostures %ut higher levels of trustand coo$eration.

***4conomies



Unite& States

US econom" resilient – onl" &omestic issues affect itSeekin' Alpha (( B Muoting !leveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto-'im *uy, <C:C::, Something to !hew on( 'he U.S.s Economic )esilience,htt$(CCsee&ingal$ha.comCarticleC:??#something#to#chew#on#the#u#s#s#economic#resilience4

With the economy on /a firmer footing,0 she said, U.S. cor$orate leaders seem inclined to continue investing ineMui$ment and software des$ite such worries as turmoil in the 3iddle East, the a$anese earthMua&e and the sovereign de%t crisis in Euro$e. /5n

this firmer footing, these shoc&s are hitting us, %ut it seems li&e we7re more resilient and a%le to a%sor% theseshoc&s,0 she said. am not sure that we should find this resiliency sur$rising, des$ite the seemingly $er$etual fears of mar&et

$artici$ants. %elieve that all US recessions, at least $ost#WW, are attri%uta%le directly to domestic distur%ances #monetary $olicy andCor domestic financial crisis # or oil $rice shoc&s. Argua%ly, the Asian Financial !risis wasclose via the +ong 'erm !a$ital 3anagement fiasco, %ut no cigar, as the US economy $owered ahead until the tech %u%%lecolla$se -a domestic story4. Hence, have %een hesitant to $ut much economic concern on a$an and Euro$e # the transmission mechansims a$$ear

too wea& to a$$recia%ly change the US outloo&. 5ne can suggest that financial crisis in Euro$e will filter %ac& through to USinstitutions, %ut thin& this would have %een more li&ely two or three years ago than now. 8ac& then, we could credi%ly

%elieve that a US financial institution could fail. ow , however, am $retty sure the financial sector has an e=$licit governmentguarantee. Financial e=igency clauses will come into $lay sooner than later this time around. am concerned a%out the $otential for a shar$ rise in

energy $rices to &noc& the wind out of consumers this year, %ut also recogni>e that the increase reflects im$roving growth $ros$ects. See s$encers note

at Angry 8ear on this $oint. one of this is meant to im$ly that the US economy is without wartsT nothing could %e further from the truth. 5nly that the

$rimary ris&s are internal demand and energy shoc&s, not other e=ternal shoc&s.

The US econom" is resilient #ashin'ton Times 38 # chief $olitical corres$ondent of 'he Washington 'imes -*onald +am%ro, ?C2C@2, 'he Washington 'imes, IAlways dar&est %efore dawnI, le=is4'he doom#and#gloomers are still with us, of course, and they will go to their graves forecasting that life as we &now it is coming to an end and that we arein for years of economic de$ression and recession. +ast wee&, the ew Jor& 'imes ran a Page 5ne story maintaining that Americans were saving lessthan ever, and that their de%t %urden had risen %y an average of ::?,;R: $er household. And the +ondon 'elegra$h says there are even harder times

ahead, com$aring todays economy to the Great *e$ression of the :;@s. Wall Street economist *avid 3al$ass thin&s that &ind of fearmongeringis filled with mani$ulated statistics that ignore long#term wealth creation in our country , as well as glo%ally.

ncreasingly, $eo$le are investing Ifor the long run # for ca$ital gains -not counted in savings4 rather than current income # in $re$aration

for retirement,I he told his clients last wee&. nstead of a coming recession, Iwe thin& the U.S. is in gradual recovery after a shar$ two#Muarter slowdown, with consumer resilience more li&ely than the decades#old e=$ectation of a consumer

slum$,I 3r. 3al$ass said. IFed data shows clearly that household savings of all ty$es # liMuid, financial and tangi%le # are still close to the record levelsset in Se$tem%er. 3F data shows U.S. households holding more net financial savings than the rest of the world com%ined. !onsum$tion has re$eatedly

out$erformed e=$ectations in recent Muarters and year,I he said. 'he American economy has %een $ounded %y a lot of factors,including the housing colla$se -a needed correction to %ring home $rices down to earth4, the mortgage scandal and the meteoric rise in oil and gas

$rices. 8ut this :< trillion economy , though slowing down, continues to grow %y a%out : $ercent on an annuali>ed %asis,confounding the $essimists who said we were $lunging into a recession, defined %y negative growth over twoMuarters. 'hat has not ha$$ened # yet. !all me a coc&eyed o$timist, %ut do not thin& we are heading into a recession. 5n thecontrary, m more %ullish than ever on our economys long#term $ros$ects.



A3 Competitiveness

Competitiveness has no impact on the econom" – empirics?ru'man% !@ -Paul, /!om$etitiveness( A *angerous 5%session,0 A$ril :;;<, Paul 9rugman "oined 'he ew Jor& 'imes in :;;; as a columnist onthe 5$#Ed Page and continues as $rofessor of Economics and nternational Affairs at Princeton University. At 3' he %ecame the Ford nternationalProfessor of Economics. 3r. 9rugman is the author or editor of @ %oo&s and more than @@ $a$ers in $rofessional "ournals and edited volumes. His$rofessional re$utation rests largely on wor& in international trade and financeT he is one of the founders of the Inew trade theory,I a ma"or rethin&ing ofthe theory of international trade. n recognition of that wor&, in :;;: the American Economic Association awarded him its ohn 8ates !lar& medal4

n fact, however, trying to define the com$etitiveness of a nation is much more $ro%lematic than defining that of acor$oration. 'he %ottom line for a cor$oration is literally its %ottom line( if a cor$oration cannot afford to $ayits wor&ers, su$$liers, and %ondholders, it will go out of %usiness. So when we say that a cor$oration is uncom$etitive, we mean

that its mar&et $osition is unsustaina%le ## that unless it im$roves its $erformance, it will cease to e=ist. !ountries, on the other hand, donot go out of %usiness. 'hey may %e ha$$y or unha$$y with their economic $erformance, %ut they have no

well#defined %ottom line. As a result, the conce$t of national com$etitiveness is elusive. 5ne might su$$ose, naively, that the %ottom line of anational economy is sim$ly its trade %alance, that com$etitiveness can %e measured %y the a%ility of a country to sell more a%road than it %uys. 8ut in %oth theory and $ractice a trade sur$lus may %e a sign of national wea&ness, a deficit a sign of strength. For e=am$le, 3e=ico was forced to run hugetrade sur$luses in the :;2@s in order to $ay the interest on its foreign de%t since international investors refused to lend it any more moneyT it %egan torun large trade deficits after :;;@ as foreign investors recovered confidence and %egan to $our in new funds. Would anyone want to descri%e 3e=ico as ahighly com$etitive nation during the de%t crisis era or descri%e what has ha$$ened since :;;@ as a loss in com$etitivenessO 3ost writers who worrya%out the issue at all have therefore tried to define com$etitiveness as the com%ination of favora%le trade $erformance and something else. n $articular,the most $o$ular definition of com$etitiveness nowadays runs along the lines of the one given in !ouncil of Economic Advisors !hairman +aura

*Andrea 'ysons Who's Bashing Whom?( com$etitiveness is Iour a%ility to $roduce goods and services that meet the testof international com$etition while our citi>ens en"oy a standard of living that is %oth rising and sustaina%le.I 'his

sounds reasona%le. f you thin& a%out it, however, and test your thoughts against the facts, you will find out that there is much less to this definition thanmeets the eye. !onsider, for a moment, what the definition would mean for an economy that conducted very little international trade, li&e the UnitedStates in the :;R@s. For such an economy, the a%ility to %alance its trade is mostly a matter of getting the e=change rate right. 8ut %ecause tradeis such a small factor in the economy, the level of the e=change rate is a minor influence on the standard ofliving. So in an economy with very little international trade, the growth in living standards ## and thus Icom$etitivenessI according to 'ysons

definition ## would %e determined almost entirely %y domestic factors, $rimarily the rate of $roductivity growth. 'hatsdomestic $roductivity growth, $eriod ## not $roductivity growth relative to other countries. n other words, for aneconomy with very little international trade, Icom$etitivenessI would turn out to %e a funny way of saying I$roductivityI and would have nothing to do with international com$etition. 8ut surely this changes when trade %ecomes more im$ortant, as indeed it has for all ma"or economiesO t certainly couldchange. Su$$ose that a country finds that although its $roductivity is steadily rising, it can succeed in e=$orting only if it re$eatedly devalues itscurrency, selling its e=$orts ever more chea$ly on world mar&ets. 'hen its standard of living, which de$ends on its $urchasing $ower over im$orts as well as domestically $roduced goods, might actually decline. n the "argon of economists, domestic growth might %e outweighed %y deteriorating terms otrade. So Icom$etitivenessI could turn out really to %e a%out international com$etition after all. 'here is no reason, however, to leave this as a $ure

s$eculationT it can easily %e chec&ed against the data. Have deteriorating terms of trade in fact %een a ma"or drag on the U.S.

standard of livingO 5r has the rate of growth of U.S. real income continued essentially to eMual the rate of domestic $roductivity growth, eventhough trade is a larger share of income than it used to %eO 'o answer this Muestion, one need only loo& at the national income accounts data the!ommerce *e$artment $u%lishes regularly in the Survey of !urrent 8usiness. 'he standard measure of economic growth in the United States is, ofcourse, real gn$ ## a measure that divides the value of goods and services $roduced in the United States %y a$$ro$riate $rice inde=es to come u$ with anestimate of real national out$ut. 'he !ommerce *e$artment also, however, $u%lishes something called Icommand gn$.I 'his is similar to real gn$e=ce$t that it divides U.S. e=$orts not %y the e=$ort $rice inde=, %ut %y the $rice inde= for U.S. im$orts. 'hat is, e=$orts are valued %y what Americanscan %uy with the money e=$orts %ring. !ommand gn$ therefore measures the volume of goods and services the U.S. economy can IcommandI ## thenations $urchasing $ower ## rather than the volume it $roduces.\ And as we have "ust seen, Icom$etitivenessI means something diFFerent from

I$roductivityI if and only if $urchasing $ower grows significantly more slowly than out$ut. Well, here are the num%ers. 5ver the $eriod :;R;#?, a$eriod of vigorous growth in U.S. living standards and few concerns a%out international com$etition, real gn$$er wor&er#hour grew :.2R $ercent annually, while command gn$ $er hour grew a %it faster, :.2? $ercent. From :;? to :;;@, a $eriod ofstagnating living standards, command gn$ growth $er hour slowed to @.R $ercent. Almost all -;: $ercent4 of that slowdown, however, was e=$lained %ya decline in domestic $roductivity growth( real gn$ $er hour grew only @.? $ercent. Similar calculations for the Euro$ean !ommunity and a$an yield

similar results. n each case, the growth rate of living standards essentially eMuals the growth rate of domestic$roductivity ## not $roductivity relative to com$etitors, %ut sim$ly domestic $roductivity. Even though worldtrade is larger than ever %efore, national living standards are overwhelmingly determined %y domestic factorsrather than %y some com$etition for world mar&ets. How can this %e in our interde$endent worldO Part of the answer is that the

world is not as interde$endent as you might thin&( countries are nothing at all li&e cor$orations. Even today, U.S. e=$orts are only :@ $ercentof the value#added in the economy -which is eMual to gn$4. 'hat is, the United States is still almost ;@ $ercentan economy that $roduces goods and services for its own use.

Countries &ont =compete>?ru'man% !@ -Paul, /!om$etitiveness( A *angerous 5%session,0 A$ril :;;<, Paul 9rugman "oined 'he ew Jor& 'imes in :;;; as a columnist onthe 5$#Ed Page and continues as $rofessor of Economics and nternational Affairs at Princeton University. At 3' he %ecame the Ford nternationalProfessor of Economics. 3r. 9rugman is the author or editor of @ %oo&s and more than @@ $a$ers in $rofessional "ournals and edited volumes. His$rofessional re$utation rests largely on wor& in international trade and financeT he is one of the founders of the Inew trade theory,I a ma"or rethin&ing ofthe theory of international trade. n recognition of that wor&, in :;;: the American Economic Association awarded him its ohn 8ates !lar& medal4



8y contrast, even the largest cor$oration sells hardly any of its out$ut to its own wor&ersT the Ie=$ortsI of General 3otors ## its sales to $eo$le who donot wor& there ## are virtually all of its sales, which are more than .R times the cor$orations value#added. 3oreover, countries do not com$ete with eachother the way cor$orations do. !o&e and Pe$si are almost $urely rivals( only a negligi%le fraction of !oca#!olas sales go to Pe$si wor&ers, only a

negligi%le fraction of the goods !oca#!ola wor&ers %uy are Pe$si $roducts. So if Pe$si is successful, it tends to %e at !o&es e=$ense. 8ut the ma"orindustrial countries, while they sell $roducts that com$ete with each other, are also each others main e=$ortmar&ets and each others main su$$liers of useful im$orts. f the Euro$ean economy does well, it need not %eat U.S. e=$enseT indeed, if anything a successful Euro$ean economy is li&ely to hel$ the U.S. economy %y$roviding it with larger mar&ets and selling it goods of su$erior Muality at lower $rices. nternational trade, then, is not a>ero#sum game. When $roductivity rises in a$an, the main result is a rise in a$anese real wagesT American or Euro$ean wages are in $rinci$le at leastas li&ely to rise as to fall, and in $ractice seem to %e virtually unaffected. t would %e $ossi%le to %ela%or the $oint, %ut the moral is clear( while

com$etitive $ro%lems could arise in $rinci$le, as a $ractical, em$irical matter the ma"or nations of the world are not to anysignificant degree in economic com$etition with each other. 5f course, there is always a rivalry for status and $ower ## countries

that grow faster will see their $olitical ran& rise. So it is always interesting to com$are countries. 8ut asserting that a$anese growth diminishes U.S.status is very different from saying that it reduces the U.S. standard of living ## and it is the latter that the rhetoric of com$etitiveness asserts. 5ne can, ofcourse, ta&e the $osition that words mean what we want them to mean, that all are free, if they wish, to use the term Icom$etitivenessI as a $oetic way ofsaying $roductivity, without actually im$lying that international com$etition has anything to do with it. 8ut few writers on com$etitiveness would acce$tthis view. 'hey %elieve that the facts tell a very different story, that we live, as +ester 'hurow $ut it in his %est#selling %oo&, Head to Head, in a world ofIwin#loseI com$etition %etween the leading economies. How is this %elief $ossi%leO

Competitiveness is .ust meanin'less rhetoric an& &istracts from real solutions?ru'man% !@ -Paul, /!om$etitiveness( A *angerous 5%session,0 A$ril :;;<, Paul 9rugman "oined 'he ew Jor& 'imes in :;;; as a columnist onthe 5$#Ed Page and continues as $rofessor of Economics and nternational Affairs at Princeton University. At 3' he %ecame the Ford nternationalProfessor of Economics. 3r. 9rugman is the author or editor of @ %oo&s and more than @@ $a$ers in $rofessional "ournals and edited volumes. His$rofessional re$utation rests largely on wor& in international trade and financeT he is one of the founders of the Inew trade theory,I a ma"or rethin&ing ofthe theory of international trade. n recognition of that wor&, in :;;: the American Economic Association awarded him its ohn 8ates !lar& medal4

First, com$etitive images are e=citing, and thrills sell tic&ets. 'he su%title of +ester 'hurows huge %est#seller, Head to Head, is I'he !oming Economic8attle among a$an, Euro$e, and AmericaIT the "ac&et $roclaims that Ithe decisive war of the century has %egun . . . and America may already havedecided to lose.I Su$$ose that the su%title had descri%ed the real situation( I'he coming struggle in which each %ig economy will succeed or fail %ased on

its own efforts, $retty much inde$endently of how well the others do.I Would 'hurow have sold a tenth as many %oo&sO Second, the idea thatU.S. economic difficulties hinge crucially on our failures in international com$etition somewhat $arado=icallyma&es those difficulties seem easier to solve. 'he $roductivity of the average American wor&er is determined %y a com$le= array of

factors, most of them unreacha%le %y any li&ely government $olicy. So if you acce$t the reality that our Icom$etitiveI $ro%lem isreally a domestic $roductivity $ro%lem $ure and sim$le, you are unli&ely to %e o$timistic a%out any dramaticturnaround. 8ut if you can convince yourself that the $ro%lem is really one of failures in internationalcom$etition that ## im$orts are $ushing wor&ers out of high#wage "o%s, or su%sidi>ed foreign com$etition is driving the United States out of the high

value#added sectors ## then the answers to economic malaise may seem to you to involve sim$le things li&esu%sidi>ing high technology and %eing tough on a$an. Finally, many of the worlds leaders have found the com$etitive meta$hor

e=tremely useful as a $olitical device. 'he rhetoric of com$etitiveness turns out to $rovide a good way either to "ustify

hard choices or to avoid them. 'he e=am$le of *elors in !o$enhagen shows the usefulness of com$etitive meta$hors as an evasion. *elorshad to say something at the Ec summitT yet to say anything that addressed the real roots of Euro$eanunem$loyment would have involved huge $olitical ris&s. 8y turning the discussion to essentially irrelevant %ut$lausi%le#sounding Muestions of com$etitiveness, he %ought himself some time to come u$ with a %etter answer-which to some e=tent he $rovided in *ecem%ers white $a$er on the Euro$ean economy ## a $a$er that still, however, retained Icom$etitivenessI in itsrifle4. 8y contrast, the well#received $resentation of 8ill !lintons initial economic $rogram in Fe%ruary :;; showed the usefulness of com$etitiverhetoric as a motivation for tough $olicies. !linton $ro$osed a set of $ainful s$ending cuts and ta= increases to reduce the Federal deficit. WhyO 'he realreasons for cutting the deficit are disa$$ointingly undramatic( the deficit si$hons off funds that might otherwise have %een $roductively invested, andthere%y e=erts a steady if small drag on U.S. economic growth. 8ut !linton was a%le instead to offer a stirring $atriotic a$$eal, calling on the nation to actnow in order to ma&e the economy com$etitive in the glo%al mar&ets with the im$lication that dire economic conseMuences would follow if the United

States does not. 3any $eo$le who &now that Icom$etitivenessI is a largely meaningless conce$t have %een willingto indulge com$etitive rhetoric $recisely %ecause they %elieve they can harness it in the service of good $olicies.

An over%lown fear of the Soviet Union was used in the :;R@s to "ustify the %uilding of the interstate highwaysystem and the e=$ansion of math and science education. !annot the un"ustified fears a%out foreign com$etition similarly %e

turned to good, used to "ustify serious efforts to reduce the %udget deficit, re%uild infrastructure, and so onO



RussiaRussian econom" is resilient &espite the 8 financial crisis6eilprin (( B AP )e$ort-ohn, /Putin says )ussia economy recovering, still %elow $re#glo%al financial crisis level0 une :R, @::htt$(CCwww.startri%une.comCworldC:;:?R;.html4

GEEA # )ussias economy is recovering, %ut remains well %elow the level it was at %efore the glo%al financial crisis, says Prime 3inister ladimir

Putin, addressing a U.. la%or meeting in Geneva on Wednesday. Putin said )ussia has Imanaged to recover two#thirds of oureconomy , %ut still we have not reached $re#crisis levels.I 'he )ussian economy contracted %y almost 2 $ercent during the

recession. He added that the economy 6 the worlds si=th#largest 6 would reach $re#crisis levels %y @:, eventually rising to %ecome oneof the worlds to$ five. Putin also called for Ia more fair and %alanced economic model,I as nations gradually recover from the world financial

crisis that hit in @@2. n A$ril, Putin said in his annual address %efore )ussian $arliament that the &ey lesson from the financial crisis was for the country to %e self#reliant and strong enough to resist outside $ressure. He said )ussias economy grew <$ercent last year. Putin, widely seen as wanting to reclaim his nations $residency, said on Wednesday that his government is em$hasi>ing social$rograms such as increasing aid for young mothers, disa%led wor&ers and $eo$le with health $ro%lems as it recovers.

Russian econom" is able to reboun& – several reasons Aslun& ( # Senior fellow at the Peterson nstitute for nternational Economics

-Anders, ovem%er R, @:@ :@ /)easons Why the )ussian Economy Will )ecover0htt$(CCwww.$iie.comC$u%licationsCo$edsCo$ed.cfmO)esearch*:?:4

While the energy curse is well understood, it tends to %e over#em$hasi>ed. At one time, it was %elieved that energy#richcountries were guaranteed sta%le growthT now oil and gas are considered a%solute %loc&ages to growth. 8utneither is Muite true. 'here are :@ main reasons why )ussia is li&ely to turn around within the ne=t cou$le of years and enter a higher#

growth tra"ectory( 'he root cause is the $rofound sense of malaise in the )ussian elite. othing is %etter for reform thanmalaise. )emem%er how former Soviet leader 3i&hail Gor%achev and former Soviet Foreign 3inister Eduard Shevardnad>e told each other %efore

assuming $ower( IWe cannot go on li&e this any longerYI 5nce again, 3oscow is reaching this $oint. deas are also crucial, and a newintellectual $aradigm has ta&en hold. Since Fe%ruary @@2, President *mitry 3edvedev has advocated moderni>ation. While this

am%itious idea has dominated the $u%lic discourse, little has %een done. 'his contrast %etween word and action is reminiscent of the Soviet Union in:;2?, when Gor%achev had $reached acceleration and $erestroi&a for two years %ut accom$lished little. 'hat year, he shifted gear to focus on

democrati>ation to sha&e society u$. )ussia is finally a%out to accede to the World 'rade 5rgani>ation - W'54 within a year, which would %e a game changer. 'he %est availa%le studies $redict enormous gains for the country. Economists es$er ensen, 'homas )utherford,and *avid 'arr estimate in a World 8an& study that )ussia should gain a%out . $ercent of G*P annually in the medium term and :: $ercent of G*P in

the long term. 'he gains would mainly come from increased foreign direct investment and services. nternationalintegration and convergence will drive the countrys growth for a cou$le of decades. 5ne of )ussias largest draw%ac&s and

constant drags on growth is its immense corru$tion, %ut )ussia is sim$ly too rich, well educated, and o$en to %e so corru$t. As the country has failed toe=tend its road networ& since :;;?, something has to %e done. Even former 3ayor Jury +u>h&ov 6the countrys Iultimate traffic "amI 6has %een sac&ed

Significant $rogress in the fight against corru$tion can %e made with relatively easy and small ste$s6for e=am$le, $u%lic$rocurement for &ey infrastructure $ro"ects can %e significantly cleaned u$ if a few honest $eo$le are a$$ointedat the to$. 3oney is no longer a free utility for the 9remlin. 'he $rice of oil has risen a%ove 2@ $er %arrel, %ut at that level Finance 3inister Ale=ei

9udrin foresees a %udget deficit in @:@ of <. $ercent of G*P, and deficits will continue until @:<. 'herefore, the government can no longer sim$lythrow money at $ro%lems. t has to actually solve some of them. Energy $roduction has leveled off and is not li&ely to rise significantly any time soon.'herefore, growth has to come from other sectors. +oo& at the com$osition of and trends among leading com$anies on the )'S or 3!EL and you willsee how )ussia has changed. 'he energy com$anies are now the laggards, while the many growth com$anies are in consumer industries. n $articular,

Ga>$rom, the old cancer of the )ussian economy, is in a serious structural crisis. ts mar&et value has fallen %y two#thirdsfrom its $ea& in s$ring @@2. As a high#cost $roducer, it is losing out to inde$endent $roducers6nota%ly ovate&6and liMuefied natural gas in Euro$e.

Ga>$rom re$resents the most $ressing case for restructuring. 'he com$any has to cut costs %y reducing corru$tion and enhancing

efficiency. 'his means that Ga>$rom must $ut an end to its history of %eing the huge slush fund for )ussias rulers. )ussias greatest resourceis its Muic&ly e=$anding human ca$ital. According to UES!5 statistics, R: $ercent of young )ussians

graduated from higher educational institutions in @@2, $lacing )ussia as the ninth#highest country in the world. !om$are this figure with the United States, where only R.R $ercent of the young $o$ulation com$leted higher education in @@2. Admittedly,

the )ussian num%ers are swollen %y corru$tion, $lagiarism, and often low standards, %ut even with some deduction, the )ussian figures remainim$ressive. Everywhere you see young, am%itious, well#educated, and hard#wor&ing )ussians who aredetermined to succeed. 'he long a%sence of any significant reforms has left much low#hanging fruit, such as elementary deregulation.Privati>ation is %ecoming inevita%le, and it instantly reduces the corru$tion characteristic of )ussian state cor$orations. )ussias leading %usinessmenoften tal& a%out Ithe @: $ro%lemI6that is, their uncertainty a%out the elites $residential selection in 3arch @:, or $ro%a%ly in *ecem%er @::, when a $residential candidate has to %e nominated. 'he choice is %ecoming increasingly clear( Putin sym%oli>es corru$tion, energy de$endence, andstagnation, while 3edvedev $resents an image of moderni>ation and reform. 'hese alternatives are %ecoming as crystal clear as in :;2R, when the Sovietelite o$ted for change.



4mpiricall" Russian economic &ecline increases 'lobal cooperation an& arms control an&preserves US he'emon" :ankoff (# s$ecialist in EurasianC)ussian affairs, ad"unct fellow for )ussia studies at the !ouncil on Foreign)elations-effrey, A$ril @:@, /'he )ussian Economic !risis0 !ouncil S$ecial )e$ort o. Rhtt$(CCwww.cfr.orgCfinancial#crisesCrussian#economic#crisisC$:2@4

'he wea&ening of )ussia7s energy, military, and financial clout has made it more difficult for 3oscow to o$enly floutinternational norms or aggressively challenge U.S. hegemony . Although Washington and 3oscow remain far

a$art on many issues, relations have im$roved since early @@;. n $art, the im$rovement seems connected to President

5%ama7s commitment to resetting relations with )ussia, %ut 3oscow7s changed international $riorities in the conte=t of thecrisis a$$ear to %e $laying a role too. 'he recognition that )ussia7s lac& of com$etitiveness threatens its securityhas made elements of )ussia7s recent assertive foreign $olicy unsustaina%le. 5ne e=am$le is arms controlnegotiations, where financial constraints im$arted a new urgency to )ussian leaders7 calls for cutting the twosides7 strategic arsenals in the accord signed in A$ril @:@ to re$lace the e=$ired :st Strategic Arms )eduction 'reaty -S'A)'#:4. 3oreover,

trade %etween the two countries continues to increase des$ite the crisis , and 3oscow has e=$ressed a clearinterest in dee$ening economic ties, arguing that /economic coo$eration is the %asis for the ]reset.70:R



Inevitable

Alt Cause – ,ankin' Sector:ankoff ( # s$ecialist in EurasianC)ussian affairs, ad"unct fellow for )ussia studies at the !ouncil onForeign )elations-effrey, 3arch, /nternal and E=ternal m$act of )ussias Economic !risis04 Within )ussia, the economic crisis has %een moderately severe, and while the economy a$$eared to %e gradually recovering %y the end of @@;, thecrisis e=$osed several structural wea&nesses that could hold %ac& )ussian growth even after the worst has $assed. While many Western countries as wel

as !hina, ndia, and 8ra>il a$$eared $oised for a fairly ra$id recovery in @:@, )ussia]s tra"ectory is li&ely to %e much more gradual6a%sent a ra$idu$swing in glo%al energy $rices. 3oreover, )ussia still faces some fairly serious ris&s that could $lunge the economy

%ac& into recession, nota%ly a %an&ing sector that has still not $urged itself of %ad loans and a high level ofinde%tedness across much of the $rivate sector. *uring the first si= months of the financial crisis, )ussian %an&s] non# $erforming loans

increased <@NT even %y the end of @@;, fears of the crisis entering a second wave centered on concerns that %an&s] %alance sheets had not %een cleared of these loans.<



)o #ar

4mpiricall"% &ecline of Russias econom" &oesnt lea& to war:ankoff ( # s$ecialist in EurasianC)ussian affairs, ad"unct fellow for )ussia studies at the !ouncil onForeign )elations-effrey, 3arch, /nternal and E=ternal m$act of )ussias Economic !risis04

'he crisis will affect )ussian foreign $olicy in other ways as well. 'he military, which during the %oom years %ecameaccustomed to yearly funding increases, will have to confront a $eriod of renewed austerity .? 'his austerity comes at a

%ad time( the war with Georgia in August @@2 e=$osed a num%er of shortcomings that the infusion of cashduring the Putin years had failed to stem. n $articular, the )ussian armed forces were slow to react and struggled to mount com%inedo$erations, even against a much wea&er foe. Even though the war was ultimately successful, the military]s less than im$ressive showing strengthened theconviction among )ussia]s $olitical leaders that reform had to %e accelerated. n this way the war $rovided momentum for im$lementing a scheme todownsi>e and moderni>e the army that e=$erts had %een discussing since the :;;@s. n essence, to deal with the &ind of threats it confronts in thecontem$orary world, the )ussian military needs to move away from the conscri$tion#%ased mass army of the @th century to a smaller, more mo%ile,and more $rofessional force. Jet %ecause such a fundamental re#conce$tuali>ation of the military]s structure and goals would reMuire significantdownsi>ing, the officer cor$s has %een strongly o$$osed to the reform. Anatoly Serdyu&ov, a one#time furniture salesman, was named 3inister of*efense %y Putin in @@? largely %ecause of the $erceived necessity of having a non#military figure overseeing the reform efforts. With strong %ac&ing

from %oth Putin and 3edvedev, Serdyu&ov has %een doggedly $ursuing his $rogram of transformation. However, lac& of funding hasim$eriled these efforts, %ecause of the need to $rovide social su$$ort -including housing4 for laid off officers. 3oscow , meanwhile, insiststhat s$ending on military $rocurement will not %e affected %y the crisis as it see&s to %oth u$grade the conventional forces in

the aftermath of the Georgia conflict and maintain a sufficient strategic deterrence ca$a%ility6 though whether it can actually afford todo so remains uncertain. 3eanwhile, the )ussian navy is also encountering $ro%lems. *ifficulties with the new 8ulava

su%marine#launched %allistic missile -which has failed the ma"ority of its o$erational tests4, delays in $rocuring new shi$s, and the mounting

o%solescence of much of the e=isting fleet have created ma"or difficulties for the navy. Given the lac& of resources and decline of themilitary#industrial com$le= since the Soviet days, these develo$ments may %e difficult to reverse.2 'hestruggles of the military and military#industrial com$le= have given the 9remlin a $owerful incentive to avoidthe ris& of further military conflicts, es$ecially while the fate of the Serdyu&ov#3edvedev reforms remains uncertain.

Alt Cause - Corruption:otla'h ! B Staff Writer for 'he Washington 'imes-ason, ovem%er /!orru$tion drags down )ussian economy0htt$(CCwww.washingtontimes.comCnewsC@@;CnovCCcorru$tion#dragging#down#russian#economyCO$age:4

35S!5W ^ 'he Hotel 3oscow , an icon of Soviet architecture, is today a monument to another $ervasive as$ect of )ussianreality( crony ca$italism. Seven years ago, the city government decided to demolish and re%uild the towering, thousand#room structure "ust off)ed SMuare, and awarded the contract to a U.S.#registered develo$er. 8ut the deal was annulled under mur&y circumstances, investigators say, in favor o

%usiness interests well connected to officialdom and organi>ed crime. Financial irregularities have since delayed the $ro"ect7s com$letion. 'he fate ofthe hotel is em%lematic of )ussia7s trou%ling %usiness culture . A string of similar high#$rofile cases in which

%ureaucrats, $olice and "ustice officials are sus$ected of using their authority to $ressure or swindle foreigncom$anies has caused an increasing num%er of investors to $ull out, with $otentially dire conseMuences for aflagging economy . Foreign investment is down .; $ercent com$ared with last year, according to the oviye >vestia news$a$er.

n the second half of @@2 alone, an estimated ? %illion in foreign ca$ital e=ited )ussia. )ussia also wasran&ed :<th out of :2@ countries last wee& in 'rans$arency nternational7s annual survey, which measurescorru$tion in government and %usiness # a dro$ of nearly @ $laces since @@. 'he watchdog grou$ estimated that %ri%ery costs)ussia @@ %illion a year, or a%out :2 $ercent of its gross domestic $roduct. / With the current level and volumeof corru$tion Z we cannot move forward,0 'rans$arency nternational said in a statement last wee&. /f corru$tion stays as it isnow, it will continue to eat u$ the resources0 that )ussia could invest in its future . President *mitry 3edvedev has

ac&nowledged the $ro%lem, lamenting the /legal nihilism0 that has rotted the system. n a ma"or s$eech earlier this month, he said corru$tion needed to

%e tac&led from many directions %ut that a solution would ta&e time( /We won7t solve the $ro%lem in a single %ound, %ut we have to dig in.0

)ussia analysts say im$lementation of $romised reforms has %een scant. *mitri Simes, $resident of the i=on!enter, a Washington thin& tan&, and a freMuent visitor to )ussia, said that /senior government officials do nothide their wealth0 and can %e seen wearing watches worth tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of dollars. /'his systemiccorru$tion ma&es it very difficult to introduce meaningful $olitical change,0 3r. Simes said at a recent forum on )ussia.n uly, )o%ert *udley, the chief e=ecutive officer of a "oint venture %etween 8P P+! and )ussian oil com$any '9, left the country in the face ofharassment. 3as&ed agents raided the com$any headMuarters, 8P staff mem%ers suddenly were denied visas on du%ious grounds, and 3r. *udley facedthreats over what a$$eared to %e %ogus la%or law violations. 'he wee& after his de$arture, )ussian stoc&s $lummeted : $ercent. P 3organ lowered itsstoc& rating from /neutral0 to /%elow mar&et,0 citing the ris& of state interference. When &ea, the Swedish retailer, %egan o$ening stores across thecountry, it faced e=tortionate rates from utility com$anies. )ather than $ay, it rented $rivate generators to $ower its stores, only to find that the )ussian



e=ecutive in charge of the generators was inflating $rices. &ea claims it lost nearly @@ million over two years and has sus$ended all investment in)ussia.

Russian econom" is resilientIvanov ( # Ph.*. from the nstitute of Hardness and 3aterial Science )ussian Academy of Science, 'oms&,)ussia-Jouri, Summer @:@ /!areer Guide )ussia0 htt$(CCnases.org.u&CfilesCminisitesC?<RCcareerN@guideN@russia.$df4

Since the :;;@s, )ussia has undergone a $rocess of economic reform. 'he transfer from state#owned to$rivatised enter$rises left a lot of organisations struggling to com$ete on the glo%al mar&et. 'he )ussiangovernment has since %een striving to %e admitted to the World 'rade 5rganisation - W'54 and will continue to do so. 'oday7s)ussian Federation has a free#mar&et economy, which has shown continuous growth over the last ten years %efore the glo%al

economic crisis. A steadily develo$ing service sector and a well#endowed oil and gas industry , ne=t to an increased demand

in domestic consum$tion, have contri%uted to that growth. 8efore the worldwide financial crisis too& $lace, )ussia e=$erienced a very$ros$erous $eriod. n the years leading u$ to the financial crisis, the economy grew a%out seven $ercent and the wages rose a%out :@#:RN. 'he

economic growth in recent years was stimulated %y higher oil $rices in @@2 and the foreign ca$ital inflow into)ussia, and de$endence on these two economic forces means that the recent financial crisis is affecting the country severely. History has shown)ussia7s resilience in times of economic crisis, so e=$erts e=$ect its economy to im$rove when the worldwidecrisis su%sides.

Desire for ai& means Russia will not 'o to war &urin' an economic crisis

<rav&a ! # *irector of the )ussian and Eurasian Studies !entre, St Antony7s !ollege, 5=ford University -Ale=, House of !ommons *efence !ommittee, :@ uly @@; /)ussia( a new confrontationO0htt$(CCwww.contracts.mod.u&C$dfsCR.$df4

*r Pravda( !ould "ust say that o%viously, the economic crisis has intensified the de%ate within the elite a%outhow %est to res$ond in terms of ada$ting the regime. 'here are $eo$le who wish to tighten controls, mainly interms of administrative controls. However, do thin& it is alarmist to tal& in terms of the real chance of somesort of short, shar$ war to mo%ilise the $o$ulation and increase the $o$ularity of a regime which cannot delivereconomic $erformance. K:R !hairman( Although Professor 3c!auley is not the only $erson tal&ing in suchterms. *r Pravda( am sure he is not %ut do wish to state my o$inion that thin& it is alarmist andunrealisticT a short, shar$ war, $articularly over !rimea, would not %e one greeted %y the )ussian $o$ulation

with great enthusiasm. All the $oll evidence shows that there is a great deal of division of o$inion on that and

very small su$$ort for any use of force to deal with U&raine relations. 'here is much more su$$ort for dealing with it through economic and $olitical means. 'he more serious $ro%lem is that yes, there are $eo$le within themilitary who are dissatisfied with how they are faring. 'here are %udgetary cuts coming. Everyone is awareinflation $lus %udgetary cuts eectively ta&e out the real increase in military s$ending, the eects of thatincrease, %ut that is something that is felt across the %oard. 'he serious discussion is %etween increasing the

vertical hold of 3oscow over the regions and using administrative means to increase $erformance and deliveryin times of diJculties and, on the other hand, an argument $ut %y many $eo$le in the economic side of theadministration, and some li%erals in %usiness circles, to ease controls to try and a%sor% some of thedissatisfaction, the disa$$ointed e=$ectations, of the )ussian $o$ulation with the im$act of the economiccrisis. 'here is disa$$ointment and sur$rise, thin&, among some mem%ers of the elite a%out the e=tent to

which the economic crisis has suc&ed them in, that they were not immune from that crisis through lac& ofdevelo$ment of financial institutions, %y which they initially thought they might %e usefully insulated. 'he

ma"or thrust of de%ate, thin&, and what we should e=$ect to ha$$en is, on the one hand, greater nervousnessa%out social unrest, tac&led in terms of administrative tighteningT on the other hand, a greater wish to get allthe hel$ they can in terms of either economic advice or hel$ or an engagement in re#fashioning glo%al economicstructures, hence the $ro$osal $ut recently of their own $oints, on which we should get together and reform

%oth institutions which already e=ist and create new ones. So thin& the overall eect of the economic crisis on)ussia7s e=ternal outloo& is to %e more engaged rather than less and, to answer the $recise Muestion, to deal

with their neigh%ours on more strictly commercial terms, and to actually ma&e sure that foreign $olicy is cost#eective, and often cost#eective in economic terms.

4conomic crises make Russia less likel" to 'o to war:ankoff ! # Former Ad"unct Fellow for )ussia Studies. Associate director of nternational Security Studies,

Jale University.



-effrey, 3arch R, /Finding the )eset 8utton in +ondon0 htt$(CCwww.cfr.orgCus#strategy#and#$oliticsCfinding#reset#%utton#londonC$:2;24

While )ussian resentment towards the West is still $al$a%le in some circles, es$ecially around Prime 3inister ladimir Putin, the economic crisis has forced 3oscow to rein in its more grandiose am%itions. Already the9remlin has s$ent around @@ %illion to $ro$ u$ %an&s, %ail out favored oligarchs, and slow the devaluationof the ru%le. t faces a %udget deficit of nearly :R %illion this year, while foreign o%servers estimate thecountrys unem$loyment rate to %e over 2N and clim%ing. Worried that the crisis will feed social unrest, the9remlin increasingly cannot afford to merely %lame the US for all its $ro%lems, es$ecially a US led %y a $o$ular

new $resident &een to restore the mantle of legitimacy to American leadershi$. 3oscow needs Washington nowmore than in recent years, %ut )ussia remains a $ric&ly, defensive $ower sensitive to $erceived slights.

The econom" has no impact on Russias power an& ambitions;rie&man ! # !hief E=ecutive 5fficer and founder of S')A'F5)-George, August, /'he )ussian Economy and )ussian Power0htt$(CCfa%iusma=imus.word$ress.comC@@;C@2C@Crussia#<C4

)ussia has %een an economic wrec& for most of its history, %oth under the c>ars and under the Soviets. 'hegeogra$hy of )ussia has a range of wea&nesses, as we have e=$lored. )ussia7s geogra$hy, dauntinginfrastructural challenges and demogra$hic structure all cons$ire against it. 8ut the strategic $ower of )ussia

was never synchroni>ed to its economic well#%eing. !ertainly, following World War the )ussian economy

was shattered and never Muite came %ac& together. Jet )ussian glo%al $ower was still enormous. A loo& at thecrushing $overty 6 %ut undenia%le $ower 6 of )ussia during %road swaths of time from :@@ until Andro$ovarrived on the scene certainly gives credence to Putin7s view. 'he $ro%lems of the :;2@s had as much to do withthe wea&ening and corru$tion of the !ommunist Party under former Soviet leader +eonid 8re>hnev as it had todo with intrinsic economic wea&ness. 'o $ut it differently, the Soviet Union was an economic wrec& underose$h Stalin as well. 'he Germans made a massive mista&e in confusing Soviet economic wea&ness withmilitary wea&ness. *uring the !old War, the United States did not ma&e that mista&e. t understood that Sovieteconomic wea&ness did not trac& with )ussian strategic $ower. 3oscow might not %e a%le to house its $eo$le,

%ut its military $ower was not to %e dismissed. What made an economic cri$$le into a military giant was$olitical $ower. 8oth the c>ar and the !ommunist Party maintained a ruthless degree of control over society.'hat meant 3oscow could divert resources from consum$tion to the military and su$$ress resistance. n astate run %y terror, dissatisfaction with the state of the economy does not translate into either $olicy shifts or

military wea&ness 6 and certainly not in the short term. Huge $ercentages of gross domestic $roduct can %edevoted to military $ur$oses, even if used inefficiently there. )e$ression and terror smooth over $u%lico$inion. 'he c>ar used re$ression widely, and it was not until the army itself re%elled in World War that theregime colla$sed. Under Stalin, even at the worst moments of World War , the army did not re%el. n %othregimes, economic dysfunction was acce$ted as the inevita%le $rice of strategic $ower. And dissent 6 even thehint of dissent 6 was dealt with %y the only truly efficient state enter$rise( the security a$$aratus, whethercalled the 5&hraina, !he&a, 9*, 3G8 or 9G8. From the $oint of view of Putin, who has called the Sovietcolla$se the greatest tragedy of our time, the $ro%lem was not economic dysfunction. )ather, it was the attem$tto com$letely overhaul the Soviet Union7s foreign and domestic $olicies simultaneously that led to the colla$seof the Soviet Union. And that colla$se did not lead to an economic renaissance. 8iden might not have meant togloat, %ut he drove home the $oint that Putin %elieves. For Putin, the West, and $articularly the United States,engineered the fall of the Soviet Union %y $olicies crafted %y the )eagan administration 6 and that same $olicyremains in $lace under the 5%ama administration. t is not clear that Putin and )ussian President *mitri3edvedev disagree with 8iden7s analysis 6 the )ussian economy truly is /withering0 6 e=ce$t in one sense.Given the $olicies Putin has $ursued, the )ussian $rime minister must %elieve he has a way to co$e with that.n the short run, Putin might well have such a co$ing mechanism, and this is the tem$orary window ofo$$ortunity8iden alluded to. 8ut in the long run, the solution is not im$roving the economy 6 that would %edifficult, if not outright im$ossi%le, for a country as large and lightly $o$ulated as )ussia. )ather, the solutionis acce$ting that )ussia7s economic wea&ness is endemic and creating a regime that allows )ussia to %e a great$ower in s$ite of that. Such a regime is the one that can create military $ower in the face of %road $overty,something we will call the /!he&ist state.0 'his state uses its security a$$aratus, now &nown as the FS8, tocontrol the $u%lic through re$ression, freeing the state to allocate resources to the military as needed. n other

words, this is Putin coming full circleto his 9G8 roots, %ut without the teachings of an Andro$ov or Gor%achevto confuse the issue. 'his is not an ideological stanceT it a$$lies to the )omanovs and to the 8olshevi&s. t is an



o$erational $rinci$le em%edded in )ussian geo$olitics and history. !ounting on )ussian strategic $ower totrac& )ussian economic $ower is ris&y. !ertainly, it did in the :;2@s and :;;@s, %ut Putin has wor&ed todecou$le the two. 5n the surface, it might seem a futile gesture, %ut in )ussian history, this decou$ling is thenorm. 5%ama seems to understand this to the e=tent that he has tried to $lay off 3edvedev -who a$$ears lesstraditional4 from Putin -who a$$ears to %e the more traditional4, %ut we do not thin& this is a via%le strategy 6this is not a matter of )ussian $olitical $ersonalities %ut of )ussian geo$olitical necessity. 8iden seems to %esaying that the )eagan strategy can $lay itself out $ermanently. 5ur view is that it $lays itself out only so longas the )ussian regime doesn7t reassert itself with the full $ower of the security a$$aratus and doesn7t decou$leeconomic and military growth. 8iden7s strategy wor&s so long as this doesn7t ha$$en. 8ut in )ussian history,

this decou$ling is the norm and the $ast @ years is the e=ce$tion. A strategy that assumes the )ussians willonce again decou$le economic and military $ower reMuires a different res$onse than ongoing, su%critical$ressure. t reMuires that the window of o$$ortunity the United States has handed )ussia %y its wars in theslamic world %e closed, and that the $ressure on )ussia %e dramatically increased %efore the )ussians movetoward full re$ression and ra$id rearmament.



0apan



Inevitable)on Uni+ue- the earth+uake an& tsunami alrea&" collapse& the 0apanese econom"

A< 72(!-!8! ews, /a$anese economy slides into recession,0 RC:;C::, htt$(CCwww.c%c.caCnewsCworldCstoryC@::C@RC:;C"a$an#economy#recession.html, !!4

a$ans economy contracted shar$ly in the first Muarter, veering %ac& into recession as factory $roduction and consumers$ending wilted in the aftermath of 3arch :: earthMua&e and tsunami. )eal gross domestic $roduct 6 a measure of the valueof all goods and services $roduced domestically 6 shran& at an annuali>ed rate of .? $er cent in the anuary#3arch $eriod, the !a%inet 5ffice said

'hursday. 'he result mar&s the second straight Muarter that the worlds o. economy has lost steam and undershoots an annuali>ed .$er cent fall forecast in a 9yodo ews agency survey. While there is no universally acce$ted definition of a recession, many economists define it as two

consecutive Muarters of G*P contraction. 5thers consider the de$th of economic decline as well as other measures li&e unem$loyment. 3artinSchul>, senior economist at Fu"itsu )esearch nstitute in 'o&yo, said there is Ino dou%tI that recession hasreturned. 3ore sur$rising is "ust how Muic&ly the economy crum$led, he said. 'he latest G*P re$ort includes "ust @ days following the

disaster, %ut Ithe im$act is huge,I said Schul>, who had e=$ected to see most of the economic fallout in the secondMuarter. 'he magnitude#;.@ earthMua&e and tsunami left more than <,@@@ $eo$le dead or missing, and wi$ed out entire towns in the hardest#hit

areas. *amage is estimated at @@ %illion US, ma&ing it the most e=$ensive natural disaster in history. Economic ri$$les t damagedfactories in the region, causing severe shortages of $arts and com$onents for manufacturers across a$an, es$ecially automa&ers. A cri$$led nuclear$ower $lant caused wides$read $ower shortages that added to the headaches faced %y %usinesses and households. As a result, a$ans factory $roduction

and consumer s$ending %oth fell the most on record in 3arch. E=$orts in 3arch went south for the first time in : months.!om$anies are re$orting lower earnings and diminished outloo&s for the rest of the fiscal year. 'he recent events

have dee$ly unnerved households, who are li&ely to remain cautious for the coming months, Schul> said. I'he nuclear disaster showed "usthow much is wrong in a$an actually,I he said. IAnd many things that seemed so sta%le and sure li&e electricity su$$ly ... are loo&ing not safe

at all.I

0apan 4conomic collapse inevitable- Debt% population% an& recent &isastersTwaronite 123! B 3ar&etwatch 'o&yo %ureau !hief -+isa, /a$an7s de%t crisis moves in slow motion,0 C;C::, htt$(CCwww.mar&etwatch.comCstoryC"a$ans#de%t#crisis#moves#in#slow#motion#@::#@#;Olin&homeDcarousel, !!4

!om$ared to the acute contagion of a $otential Gree& default, a$an7s de%t woes are more li&e a critical %ut slowly#$rogressingillness. 'he a$anese $atient can $ro%a%ly live for years 6 decades, even 6 and won7t s$read its sic&ness far and wide. 5n the face of it, a$an7scondition loo&s worse than Greece7s. Even %efore the devastating earthMua&e and tsunami on 3arch ::, the 5rgani>ation for Economic

!oo$eration and *evelo$ment said a$an7s $u%lic de%t was on trac& to to$ @@N of its gross domestic $roduct in @::.'hat com$ares with less than :<@N for Greece, according to the 5E!*. 3oreover, a$an7s %irthrate is falling and its$o$ulation is aging. 5n Wednesday, the nternal Affairs 3inistry released the results of the @:@ census, which showed the num%er of elderly

a$anese rose .; $ercentage $oints to .:N of the total $o$ulation 6 the highest $ercentage in the world. +ast year, children under :Raccounted for a record#low :.N of the total, dro$$ing @. $ercentage $oint from the $revious year. 'his tic&ing demogra$hic %om%

means a$an needs to dou%le its consum$tion ta= to :@N %y the fiscal year %eginning in A$ril @:R to $ay %urgeoning social welfare costs 6 timing that

Prime 3inister aoto 9an can7t even get his own *emocratic Party of a$an to su$$ort, let alone get $arliament to $ass anytime soon. And thencame the disaster. 'he cost of the damage is still %eing tallied, and the funding details still %eing wor&ed out,

%ut when it comes to the country7s %alance sheet, it7s got to hurt.

4conomic collapse inevitable- &isasters an& response failureah 725( B )e$orter for !-9yung, /a$an7s economic woes continue,0 RC:C::, htt$(CCedition.cnn.comC@::C8USESSC@RC:C"a$an.economyCinde=.html, !!4

Economic data and analysis out of a$an 'uesday underscore the struggles in the worlds third largest economy,and how the lac& of clear $olicy is adding to the $ro%lems. a$ans unem$loyment rate rose to <.?N in A$ril, u$ @.:N

from 3arch. t was the first "um$ in unem$loyment in si= months in the wa&e of the ;.@ earthMua&e and tsunami,re$orted a$ans 3inistry of nternal Affairs and !ommunications. 'he data did not factor in three hardest hit $refectures in thetsunami region( wate, 3iyagi and Fu&ushima. 'hose areas saw massive infrastructure and "o% losses, suggesting the

actual unem$loyment in the country is worse than todays figures suggest. Se$arate em$loyment data showed thenum%er of "o%s availa%le dro$$ed for the first time in :? months. 'he num%er of "o%s availa%le deteriorated to @.: in A$ril from

@. in 3arch. 'he figures from the 3inistry of Health, +a%or and Welfare show only : "o%s are availa%le for every :@@ "o% see&ers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/05/19/japan-economy-recession.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-debt-crisis-moves-in-slow-motion-2011-06-29?link=home_carousel


http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/05/31/japan.economy/index.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/05/19/japan-economy-recession.html



http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/05/31/japan.economy/index.html



)o Spillover

0apan 4conom" not ke" to 'lobal econom" – eBport-import &ifferentialSchuman (( B American author and "ournalist who s$eciali>es in Asian economics, $olitics and history. He iscurrently the Asia %usiness corres$ondent for '3E 3aga>ine, %ased in Hong 9ong-3ichael, /Will a$an7s Mua&e roc& the world economyO,0 C:C::, htt$(CCcuriousca$italist.%logs.time.comC@::C@C:Cwill#"a$anNEN2@N;;s#Mua&e#roc&#the#world#economyC, !!4

After a stress#inducing day on Wall Street, investors have finally wo&en to the $otential dangers to the world economic order

$osed %y the giant earthMua&e and tsunami in a$an. 'he a$anese economy is the worlds third#largest, and its com$anies $layim$ortant roles in everything from heavy industry to high#tech to finance. 'here is no dou%t that the $ain in a$an will somehow %e felt %y all of us. 8ut

how muchO *es$ite the "itters in the mar&ets, the fallout from a$ans trauma for the world economy might in theend %e very limited. Heres why( thin& the main im$act of a$ans crisis will show itself in su$$ly chains. a$an is tightlyintegrated into glo%al manufacturing networ&s and is an im$ortant su$$lier of tons of stuff the world needs, from steel to semiconductors. So anydisru$tion of su$$ly of com$onents and materials in a$an will ri$$le through those su$$ly chains, $otentially causing shortages or interru$tions that would ham$er factory o$erations around the world. ts hard to tell at this $oint how severe the overall im$act might %e, %ut %ased on whats going on ina$ans industrial sector these days, $ro%lems seem inevita%le. Factories are shut across the country, and with $ower shortages and trans$ort a mess,industrial $roduction is unli&ely to get %ac& to normal for wee&s. 'he situation is $ro%a%ly most serious in electronics, since a$an $roduces <@N of the

worlds electronics com$onents, including materials and $arts for chi$s and +!* 's, as well as advanced %atteries. 'his su$$ly chain $ro%lemmay %e short#term, as com$anies find new sources of com$onents, and there is enough s$are ca$acity in a$anand elsewhere to re$lace $roduction lost to Mua&e damage. 8ut that doesnt mean the disru$tion wont %e costly. 8ut %eyond that, there is littlereason to %elieve the trou%les in a$ans economy will have a very dramatic im$act on the rest of the world .

!learly, industrial out$ut and demand in a$an will ta&e a hit, and so will growth. 8ut that wont translate into

%ig losses for the glo%al economy, even in its current fragile condition. 'here are two reasons why. First, though a$an isa %ig economy, it e=$orts more than it im$orts, thus a decrease in demand in a$an doesnt s$ill over muchinto the glo%al economy . 5nly RN of U.S. e=$orts head to a$an, for e=am$le. 3organ Stanley $oints out that a$an ta&es in 2N of !hinese

e=$orts, %ut a$anese demand doesnt add much to the growth of those e=$orts. n @:@, a$an contri%uted only:.;$$t to the :.N year#on#year growth of !hinas e=$orts.

0apan not ke" to 'lobal econom"- &oesnt actuall" affect 'lobal marketsSchuman (( B American author and "ournalist who s$eciali>es in Asian economics, $olitics and history. He iscurrently the Asia %usiness corres$ondent for '3E 3aga>ine, %ased in Hong 9ong-3ichael, /Will a$an7s Mua&e roc& the world economyO,0 C:C::, htt$(CCcuriousca$italist.%logs.time.comC@::C@C:Cwill#"a$anNEN2@N;;s#Mua&e#roc&#the#world#economyC, !!4

Secondly, a$an has %een in a @#year economic fun&, and as a result, the im$ortance of the country in the worldeconomy has %een on the decline. !hina su$$lanted a$an as the worlds second#largest economy last year.

Since the economy doesnt grow much, it doesnt contri%ute much to world growth. 8ofA 3errill +ynch economists figurethe im$act of a severe slowdown of a$ans economy would $roduce %arely a ri$$le to glo%al growth( According to the nternational 3onetary Fund

-3F4, a$an re$resents 2.?N of glo%al G*P as of @:@. Going into last wee&s tragedy, we had a$ans economy growing :.RN in @::E. Assuming adrastic scenario, where annual G*P growth comes in flat, then we estimate glo%al G*P would decline %y "ust@.:$$t to <.N. Similarly, a$ans im$act to US G*P will %e limited as wellZWith its long languishing economy, news froma$an no longer has the $owerful effect on investor $sychology that it once had . n fact, some economies and com$anies

around the world could come to %enefit from a$ans crisis, as the e=$erts at !a$ital Economics %elieve( Even though a$an is still the worldsthird#largest economy, its reliance on e=$ort#led growth means that it has %een a $assenger of the glo%alrecovery rather than a main driver. 5ther countries may even see some economic %enefits from the disaster ina$an, including a share in the su%seMuent reconstruction wor&. Some a$anese firms will also have to increase $roduction attheir overseas facilities, at least tem$orarily.

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/03/16/will-japan%E2%80%99s-quake-rock-the-world-economy/










China



ResilientChinese econom" resilient – urbani$ation% investment% an& stimulus proveReuters ((-9evin Jao, une , /Analysis( !hina economy resilient, for now0,htt$(CCwww.reuters.comCarticleC@::C@CCus#china#economy#growth#idUS')E?R3:A5@::@4 )A 8EG -)euters4 B !hinas growth is slowing under the weight of 8ei"ings anti#inflation cam$aign and

wea&er glo%al demand, %ut any investors %etting on a hard landing would %e underestimating the resilience ofthe worlds second#largest economy. !hinas relentless ur%ani>ation continue to drive e=$ansion even as8ei"ing see&s to chec& unfettered investment %y growth#o%sessed local authorities, while stronger domesticconsum$tion is $roviding a firmer cushion against e=ternal shoc&s. !hina %ears may have %een em%oldened on'hursday %y a $urchasing managers survey showing growth in the factory sector nearly stalled in une as newe=$ort orders fell. 8ut s&e$tics who are e=$ecting an a%ru$t economic slowdown may have miscalculated8ei"ings resolve to act Muic&ly if needed to revive growth, es$ecially if inflation eases later this year as e=$ectedreducing the need for fresh monetary tightening measures, analysts say. I'he economy is set u$ for growth.

Jouve still got ur%ani>ation and industriali>ation to come and all the incentives at local government levels arestill to do with encouraging growth,I said Ste$hen Green, an economist at Standard !hartered 8an& in Hong9ong. IPeo$le always over#worry a%out a !hina hard landing. !learly there are a lot of $ro%lems with theeconomy %ut $eo$le may underestimate the governments a%ility to muddle through.I Green e=$ects some$olicy rela=ation later this year as $rice $ressures start to moderate. 5 HA)* +A*GO Glo%al investorsare unnerved %y any sign of a slowdown in !hina, a &ey glo%al growth engine, even as the U.S. economicrecovery loses momentum and Euro$e struggles with a sovereign de%t crisis. An a%ru$t slowdown in !hina

could hammer international financial mar&ets and stifle demand for commodities from iron ore to soy%eans.'he economy has e=$anded at an average annual $ace of :@ $ercent in the $ast three decades. Fears of a hardlanding have gained traction as a recent stream of data showed the tur%o#charged economy is cooling, %ut fornow !hina shows no signs of following the West with growth levels falling well %elow long#term trends. ndeed,most mar&et watchers ty$ically define a hard landing in the !hinese conte=t as a sudden di$ in Muarterly G*Pgrowth %elow 2 $ercent, a level advanced economies can only dream a%out. 'he 2 $ercent threshold is, moreim$ortantly, a $olitical line in the sand for 8ei"ing, which it deems to %e the minimum level needed to createenough "o%s to ensure social sta%ility. 'he last time the economy showed signs of a sudden slum$, during thede$ths of the glo%al financial crisis in late @@2, 8ei"ing announced a < trillion yuan -@@ %illion4 stimulus$lan, Muic&ly returning to dou%le#digit growth. While few argue with the success of that scheme, manyeconomists say the s$ending %inge also sowed the seeds of inflation and created e=cesses such as unrestrainedlending and $ro$erty %u%%les which are aggravating im%alances in the economy, leaving it more vulnera%le if

the current Isoft $atchI in Western demand turns out to %e a $rolonged downturn. 35)E S'3U+USOPolicyma&ers will certainly have more room to consider fresh $um$#$riming if inflation $ea&s in une or ulynear $ercent, as widely e=$ected, and then moderates steadily in the second#half of the year. *ong 'ao, aneconomist at !redit Suisse, %elieves the central %an& will not rush to rela= $olicy for fear of fueling further$ro$erty $rice rises, %ut said the government will unleash its s$ending $ower to $revent growth from slowingtoo much. IShould the threat of a hard landing emerge, we would e=$ect fiscal stimulus to come to the rescue,instead of monetary easing. Providing funding to $olicy housing and s$eeding u$ infrastructure $ro"ects would

%e the easy o$tions,I he said. !hina has already announced an am%itious $lan to start %uilding and u$grading million afforda%le homes %etween @::#@:R, with :@ million to %e com$leted this year, to Muell growing$u%lic discontent over ra$idly rising house $rices. 3any economists, while trimming their growth forecasts for!hina, dont %elieve the current slowdown will amount to a slum$ a&in to that during the glo%al financial crisis.3ost still e=$ect G*P growth of more than ; $ercent in the second Muarter from a year earlier com$ared with

;.? $ercent in the first Muarter, with full#year growth seen at a%out ; $ercent. Im not worried a%out the ris& ofa hard landing in !hina. ts a low#$ro%a%ility event this year and ne=t year,I said Gao Shanwen, chiefeconomist at !hina Essence Securities in 8ei"ing. After all, a gentle easing in growth is e=actly what 8ei"ing

wants and is in line with its $olicy to $riorities efforts to cool inflation. I'he slowdown is essentially $art of thedeal. you need to a slowdown to reduce e=cesses and control inflation,I said 9evin +ai, economist at *aiwaGlo%al 3ar&ets in Hong 9ong.

Chinese econom" is self-correctin' – threats of crisis are overblown an& not supporte&Ulrich ( # 3anaging *irector and !hairman of !hina EMuities at .P. 3organ-ing, 3arch , .P. 3organ7s Hands#5n !hina Series, Google, /*e%un&ing the myth of a !hina colla$se04 )A 'here have always %een cynics regarding !hina7s economic growth and without "oining the ran&s of thedoomsayers, it is easy to veer towards $essimistic con"ecture sim$ly %y o%serving the changing landsca$e in



!hina7s ra$idly develo$ing cities. Any casual visitor will marvel at the s$rawling com$le=es of newly#%uilta$artments and office towers B admittedly many units at these develo$ments are ty$ically owned %ys$eculative investors holding out for ca$ital a$$reciation. 'he worst#case fears concerning !hina7s $ro$ertymar&et are %ased u$on a layer of truth and we ourselves have highlighted the untena%le nature of $riceincreases in some %ig !hinese cities, as well as the $ossi%ility that last year7s $ro$erty %oom was $artly fuelled

%y misdirected %an& loans. However, there are crucial differences %etween !hina7s real estate mar&ets andthose of the U.S. -and indeed *u%ai4, which reMuire that we view the a$$arent %uilding %u%%le through the lensof !hina7s uniMue circumstances. Unli&e the dramatic increase in household leverage that $reci$itated the U.S.su%#$rime crisis, !hinese household de%t amounts to a$$ro=imately :?N of G*P, com$ared to roughly ;N in

the US and N in the Euro area. While the level of !hinese household leverage has increased in recent years,it has done so from a very low %ase. HA*S#5 !HA )EP5)' B 3A) , @:@ With res$ect to residential$ro$erty, home%uyers in !hina are reMuired to ma&e minimum down$ayments of @N %efore receiving amortgage, and at least <@N for a second home $urchase. Even at the height of the government7s stimulusefforts, the minimum down#$ayment reMuirement for first homes was only lowered to @N. 'he !hinesecultural tendency of shunning de%t e=$lains the many anecdotal accounts we hear a%out home%uyers $uttingdown amounts that su%stantially e=ceed these minimum reMuirements. 'his is made $ossi%le %y the massiveamount of savings that !hinese households have accumulated, while in com$arison, the U.S. savings rate stood

%elow :N in the years $receding the housing crisis. Although $rice increases in the !hinese residential mar&eta$$ear ra$id -over @N in @@;4, such headline figures cannot %e viewed in isolation of the %roader trend inincome growth. 5ver the $ast R years, ur%an household incomes grew at a :.N com$ound annual rate,com$ared to an ::.;N !AG) in home $rices. 'his is not to say that $oc&ets of overheating cannot %e found in

some regional mar&ets. n 8ei"ing, Shanghai, Shen>hen and Hang>hou, for instance, $rices did in fact out$aceincome growth %y a margin of more than R $ercentage $oints over the same $eriod. 8ut again, we see this as asym$tom of new ur%an wealth %eing $ut to s$eculative use, rather than the $rofligate use of leverage. 'hecom%ination of e=cessive leverage and mortgage securiti>ation were at the e$icenter of the U.S. su%#$rimecrisis B %oth of these factors are a%sent in the !hinese conte=t. 'he commercial segment of real estate hasins$ired "ust as much concern, with $rices rising :N in @@;, des$ite low rental yields and $rime office

vacancy rates as high as :N and :<N in 8ei"ing and Shanghai, res$ectively. However occu$ancy and rentalrates have started to $ic& u$ for $rime $ro$erties B many of the current vacancies are at the lower end. Whilereturns for new $ro"ects may end u$ lower than e=$ected, !hina7s ur%ani>ation $rocess is far from over and

vacant s$ace will %e a%sor%ed over time. 'he cru= of the $ro%lem with the !hinese real estate sector is that$ro$erty is seen %y the country7s investing class as a store of value, within an economy that offers its citi>ens$ersistently low de$osit rates and limited investment o$tions. 'he a%sence of a recurring $ro$erty holding ta=

allows s$eculative home%uyers to disregard rental yields in ho$es of rea$ing ca$ital a$$reciation in the nottoo#distant future. We share many of the concerns a%out flawed incentives and overheating in the !hinese $ro$ertymar&et B %ut even if $ro$erty $rices were to undergo a correction, this would not trigger the ty$e of economicand financial devastation that might arise in an over#leveraged economy. Although sta%ility in the $ro$ertymar&et is critical to sustaining the !hinese economy7s recovery, $olicyma&ers are clearly concerned a%out theris& of asset %u%%les and the threat that e=cessive s$eculation could drive $rices %eyond afforda%ility foraverage home%uyers. 'he government is also well aware of the need to increase the holding costs for $ro$ertyinvestment and is weighing the $otential value of introducing a national $ro$erty ta=. 'his measure might %eintroduced in the medium#term and should serve to deflate $rices in some overheating mar&ets. n themeantime, authorities have re#im$osed a %usiness ta= on homeowners who resell their $ro$erties within a$eriod of two years and could hi&e this further to deter s$eculation. 'he $erennial u$s and downs of !hina7s$ro$erty sector arise from the fact that the country7s closed ca$ital account and underdevelo$ed ca$italmar&ets leave its citi>ens with few investment o$tions. nvestment interest in residential $ro$erty has fuelled amismatch %etween the stoc& of higher#ed a$artment %uildings and $ractical needs for afforda%le housing. 'hisim%alance must %e resolved over time %y s$urring the develo$ment of afforda%le housing, which is currentlyone of the government7s HA*S#5 !HA )EP5)' B 3A) , @:@ main $olicy initiatives. n the long run,financial reform, including ca$ital account li%erali>ation, will $rovide !hinese investors with %roaderinvestment o$tions, reducing the role of real estate as a form of ca$ital $reservation. Worries a%out $u%licsector de%t A more recent warning issued %y some !hina %ears is that of hidden de%t ris& among !hinese localgovernment investment com$anies B which according to state media re$orts, received a$$ro=imately <@N oflast year7s )38;. trillion in new loans. 5fficial estimates of the total outstanding loan %alance for suchinvestment entities e=ceed )38 trillion B or roughly @N of !hinese G*P B a figure that has %een critici>ed

%y some as %eing too low. According to a 8loom%erg re$ort Muoting ictor Shih of orthwestern University, the worst case scenario arising from hidden %orrowing %y !hina7s local investment intermediaries is a large#scale



financial crisis around @:. Since many shovel#ready local infrastructure $ro"ects were %rought forward as$art of the stimulus $lan, near#term returns on investment are li&ely to %e su%dued. However, as .P. 3organanalysts Samuel !hen and Sunil Garg have $ointed out, !hinese %an& loans for $u%lic sector investment$ro"ects carry im$licit or e=$licit sovereign guarantees, and are thus almost a&in to a %ond issuance for a $u%lic

wor&s $ro"ect. 3oreover, the ma"ority of $ro"ects at local government levels carry land collateral and e=$licitfiscal revenue guarantees. 5ver the $ast year, the !hinese government has also ste$$ed u$ efforts to enforce ta=collection across the cor$orate sector. 'his effort, when com%ined with im$roving %usiness conditions, %roughtlast years7 fiscal deficit to a narrower#than%udgeted .N of G*P. !hinese economic $lanners are alreadyaiming to achieve a slowdown in infrastructure investment, shifting focus toward com$leting e=isting $ro"ects

rather than funding new construction. Growth in infrastructure investment slowed to <.RN in FJ@;, fromR@.?N in the first half. 5n a year#over#year %asis, the slowdown has %een more $ronounced, with infrastructureinvestment growth $ea&ing at RR.RN in 3ay, vs. :.;N in *ecem%er. 3eanwhile, !hina7s %an&ing regulator hasordered %an&s to closely follow lending guidelines to ensure that all lending to local government investmentcom$anies are %ac&ed %y actual $ro"ects and that $ro"ect ris&s are $ro$erly accounted for. +oo&ing ahead,

while certain local administrations might struggle to service de%t, the magnitude of $u%lic sector de%t ris&s donot a$$ear as severe as some have suggested. According to 3F forecasts, !hina7s government de%t#to#G*Pratio is $ro"ected to reach N in @:@, com$ared to ;<N in the U.S. and ?N in a$an. Even if the morealarming estimates of local government de%t were included, the ratio would only grow to a$$ro=imately R:N ofestimated @:@ G*P. As a $illar of demand for a num%er of economies and for the commodities com$le=,!hinas a%ility to regulate its economy has far reaching im$lications for glo%al mar&ets. 5ne must notunderestimate the scale of future demand in a country that is ur%ani>ing at a rate of :R million $eo$le a year.

'oday, many o%servers are concerned that !hina7s economy has grown too ra$idly, and are all too#ready to$oint to $oc&ets of overca$acity as $roof of an imminent system#wide colla$se. While we agree that certain

vulnera%le areas of the economy deserve closer monitoring, we find little su$$ort for the sce$tics views of animminent crisis.

Chinese econ collapse unlikel" – false revenues an& profits un&erestimates economic 'rowthRein ( # founder and managing director of the !hina 3ar&et )esearch Grou$-Shaun, #, For%es, /o, !hina Will A%solutely ot !olla$se0, htt$(CCwww.for%es.comC@:@C@C@Cchina#economy#%u%%le#leadershi$#citi>enshi$#rein.html4 )A *e%ate continues a%out whether !hina can continue to $ull the world out of its economic slum$. Famousshort#seller im !hanos continues to argue on 8loom%erg ' and !8!s Squawk Box that !hinas economicgrowth is illusory, a %u%%le ready to %low u$ a thousand times worse than *u%ais. He %elieves !hinas

economic num%ers are all fudged, the way the Soviet Unions were under osef Stalin, to conceal true wea&ness. wrote in IWhy im !hanos s Wrong( 'here s o !hina 8u%%leI that such thin&ingunderestimates how much the !hinese government has done to slow down the real estate mar&et. Heresanother reason !hanos is all wrong( 'he official economic growth num%ers are not too high at all. 'heyre toolow. WhyO 8ecause !hinas underground economy is far %igger than the :@N to @N of the total economy thatmost economists estimate when they do their calculations. Politically the government cant admit that. Adecade ago the U.S. 'reasury estimated that R@N of )ussias economy stayed underground, evading onerousta=es. !hinas underground economy as a $ortion of the overall economy is at least as large as )ussias. 3anycom$any e=ecutives &ee$ three sets of accounting records( one for official $ur$oses, one for investors and onefor themselves. Jou cannot rely on the official num%ers or those $u%lished %y Wall Street analysts. +oo& at how!hinas ational 8ureau of Statistics revised !hinas @@? gross domestic $roduct growth from ::.;N to :N inearly @@;. Within days, all the %ig investment %an&s, such as Goldman Sachs -GS # news # $eo$le 4, hadrevised their estimates u$ward too. HuhO How could all the analysts %e wrong for more than a year and thensuddenly within several days get new data showing that !hinas growth had increased that muchO ta&e mostnum%ers coming out of !hina and the investment %an&s with a grain of salt. 'he reality is that !hinaseconomic growth is very real. After all, com$anies li&e 3c*onalds - 3!* # news # $eo$le 4, ntel- '! # news# $eo$le 4, Hewlett#Pac&ard - HPK # news #$eo$le 4 and General 3otors are re$orting record sales there andinvesting %illions more. 'hey certainly are not fudging num%ers for !hinas leadershi$. 3y firm, the !hina3ar&et )esearch Grou$, estimates that G*P has %een growing at :@N to :<N a year over the last decade, ratherthan the 2N to :@N most economists $ut forward. 'hats why !hina felt so cold in the first half of @@;, whengrowth rates were in the RN to N range. 'hats also why we %elieve most economists underestimate domesticconsum$tions role in the economy and inflate the role of e=$orts, which account for closer to @N of theeconomy than the <@N that many economists continue to use. -See my articleI'hree 3yths A%out 8usiness in!hina.I4 t would %e a mista&e to %et against !hinas growth in the ne=t five years, thin&ing its economy is



wea&er than it really is. 'here will certainly %e u$s and downs and corrections##nota%ly in commercial realestate, where there is a glut of su$$ly and the reliance on government investments needs to %e reduced in favorof domestic consum$tion##%ut overall !hina will continue to grow. A loo& at how data and ta=es are collectedshows why many of the num%ers analysts use for !hina are incorrect. !hinas ational 8ureau of Statistics hassome very intelligent $eo$le analy>ing data. 3any &now are world#class statisticians with graduate degreesfrom Harvard and other vy +eague universities. 'he $ro%lem isnt them, and it isnt undue central governmentinterference -though there may %e some of that at times4. ts the data they wor& with and how its collected.3uch of the ational 8ureau of Statistics data collection is done %y $eo$le who lost their $revious "o%s in thelast decades wave of $rivati>ations. 'hey go around to com$anies as&ing them to hel$ fill out their forms,

entering information on revenues, $rofits, num%er of em$loyees, etc. 'hey are not statisticians, and they are %arely trained for a modern economy. 3any com$anies dont want to reveal to these $eo$le how well theyredoing. 'hey would rather a$$ear $oorer than they really are to avoid getting hit u$ for favors or outright %ri%es

%y local officials. Unli&e the ta= %ureau, the statistics %ureau does little enforcement to ensure he data it getsfrom com$anies is as relia%le and truthful as $ossi%le. 'he data collectors often ma&e mista&es too. 'heyfreMuently have to go %ac& to %usinesses re$eatedly %ecause theyve made errors filling out the forms ortransferring data. f youve seen this numerous times, as have, you reali>e that no matter how good the stats

%ureau $eo$le are at the senior level, they are dealing with unrelia%le num%ers gathered %y ine$t collectorsfrom com$anies that dont want to share their information. once saw a very $leasant, graying data collector

visit the same com$any si= times in three wee&s, each time to fill out the same one form, %ecause he &e$tma&ing mista&es. Pu%lic#sector data is also sus$ect. Some local government officials inflate their G*P num%ersto $rove how good they are so they can get $romoted. 'he 8S discounts num%ers %ecause of that. 8ut other

local government re$resentatives try not to re$ort how much growth they have a%ove G*P targets. !orru$tofficials, of whom there are far too many, try to &ee$ what they can for themselves, and many calculate thattheyll do %est %y underre$orting their results so they get more funds from central government stimulus$ac&ages. 'hats how you e=$lain the $resence of monstrously high s&yscra$ers rising from rice $addies andhousing local officials offices. +oo& also at how ta= is collected. 'hat too ma&es the underground economya$$ear smaller than it really is. 3ost restaurants $ay a flat monthly ta= regardless of how much revenue theyhave. 5%viously not all restaurants of a certain si>e and location generate the same money. 8ut they all fall

within a fairly narrow %and in the ta= they need to $ay. As a result, some unsuccessful restaurants end u$over$aying their ta=es at least a little, while thriving ones wildly under$ay. 3any of !hinas . %illion e#commerce vendors, who o$erate largely through we%sites li&e Ali%a%as 'ao%ao, dont $ay any ta=es, nor docash#only retail %usinesses. -See )o%ert 5lsens article I!hinas 3igration to E#!ommerce.I4 n real estate,sellers often underre$ort how much they sell their homes for %y RN to :@N, to reduce their ta=es and get the

rest $aid in cash on the side or in overseas accounts. !om$anies can also %uy forged and real recei$ts. )ealestate tycoon _hou _hengyi, who has %een on For%es !hina rich list, was arrested in $art for allegedly forging value#added#ta= recei$ts. When you wal& down the street, if you see num%ers written on the $avement, youreoften loo&ing at ads for forged recei$ts or fa&e academic credentials. !learly revenues and $rofits are notadeMuately re$resented in !hinas official G*P num%ers. t would %e $olitically im$ossi%le for the governmentto say "ust how large the underground economy is without causing clashes among the res$onsi%le ministries.'he government is, however, actively crac&ing down on recei$t forging and ta= evasion and is im$lementingnew ta= and recei$t $olicies that will force cash %usinesses li&e restaurants to $ay more %ased on their actual

%usiness results. t is true that certain sectors in !hinas economy are overheating and that there are structuraleconomic issues that need to %e addressed. 8ut $redictions of doom and gloom in !hina %y im !hanos and hisil& are largely e=aggerated. !hina is no *u%ai. 'he growth is real.

Chinese econom" will not collapse – ten uni+ue reasonsRoach (( B faculty mem%er at Jale University and on#E=ecutive !hairman of 3organ Stanley Asia-Ste$hen S, R#?, Pro"ect Syndicate, /'en )easons Why !hina is *ifferent0, htt$(CCwww.$ro"ect#syndicate.orgCcommentaryCroachRCEnglish4 )A EW HAE B 'he !hina dou%ters are %ac& in force. 'hey seem to come in waves B every few years, or so.

Jet, year in and year out, !hina has defied the naysayers and stayed the course, $er$etuating the mosts$ectacular develo$ment miracle of modern times. 'hat seems li&ely to continue. 'oday7s feverish hand#

wringing reflects a confluence of worries B es$ecially concerns a%out inflation, e=cess investment, soaring wages, and %ad %an& loans. Prominent academics warn that !hina could fall victim to the dreaded /middle#income tra$,0 which has derailed many a develo$ing nation. 'here is a &ernel of truth to many of the concernscited a%ove, es$ecially with res$ect to the current inflation $ro%lem. 8ut they stem largely from mis$lacedgenerali>ations. Here are ten reasons why it doesn7t $ay to diagnose the !hinese economy %y drawing

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inferences from the e=$eriences of others( Strategy. Since :;R, !hina has framed its macro o%"ectives in theconte=t of five#year $lans, with clearly defined targets and $olicy initiatives designed to hit those targets. 'herecently enacted :th Five#Jear Plan could well %e a strategic turning $oint B ushering in a shift from thehighly successful $roducer model of the $ast @ years to a flourishing consumer society. !ommitment. Seared

%y memories of turmoil, reinforced %y the !ultural )evolution of the :;@7s and :;?@7s, !hina7s leadershi$$laces the highest $riority on sta%ility. Such a commitment served !hina e=tremely well in avoidingcollaterhtt$(CCwww.$ro"ect#syndicate.orgCcommentaryCroachRCEnglishal damage from the crisis of @@2#@@;. t stands to $lay an eMually im$ortant role in driving the fight against inflation, asset %u%%les, anddeteriorating loan Muality. Wherewithal to deliver. !hina7s commitment to sta%ility has teeth. 3ore than @

years of reform have unloc&ed its economic dynamism. Enter$rise and financial#mar&et reforms have %een&ey, and many more reforms are coming. 3oreover, !hina has shown itself to %e a good learner from $astcrises, and shifts course when necessary. Saving. A domestic saving rate in e=cess of R@N has served !hina wellt funded the investment im$eratives of economic develo$ment and %oosted the cushion of foreign#e=changereserves that has shielded !hina from e=ternal shoc&s. !hina now stands ready to a%sor% some of that sur$lussaving to $romote a shift toward internal demand. )ural#ur%an migration. 5ver the $ast @ years, the ur%anshare of the !hinese $o$ulation has risen from @N to <N. According to 5E!* estimates, another : million$eo$le should move from the countryside to !hina7s cities over the ne=t @ years. Such an un$recedented waveof ur%ani>ation $rovides solid su$$ort for infrastructure investment and commercial and residentialconstruction activity. Fears of e=cess investment and /ghost cities0 fi=ate on the su$$ly side, without giving due

weight to %urgeoning demand. +ow#hanging fruit B !onsum$tion. Private consum$tion accounts for onlya%out ?N of !hina7s G*P B the smallest share of any ma"or economy. 8y focusing on "o% creation, wage

increases, and the social safety net, the :th Five#Jear Plan could s$ar& a ma"or increase in discretionaryconsumer $urchasing $ower. 'hat could lead to as much as a five#$ercentage#$oint increase in !hina7sconsum$tion share %y @:R. +ow#hanging fruit B Services. Services account for "ust <N of !hinese G*P B well

%elow glo%al norms. Services are an im$ortant $iece of !hina7s $ro#consum$tion strategy B es$ecially large#scale transactions#%ased industries such as distri%ution -wholesale and retail4, domestic trans$ortation,su$$ly#chain logistics, and hos$itality and leisure. 5ver the ne=t five years, the services share of !hinese G*Pcould rise a%ove the currently targeted four#$ercentage#$oint increase. 'his is a la%or#intensive, resource#efficient, environmentally#friendly growth reci$e B $recisely what !hina needs in the ne=t $hase of itsdevelo$ment. Foreign direct investment. 3odern !hina has long %een a magnet for glo%al multinationalcor$orations see&ing %oth efficiency and a toehold in the world7s most $o$ulous mar&et. Such investments$rovide !hina with access to modern technologies and management systems B a catalyst to economicdevelo$ment. !hina7s u$coming $ro#consum$tion re%alancing im$lies a $otential shift in F* B away from

manufacturing toward services B that could $ro$el growth further. Education. !hina has ta&en enormousstrides in %uilding human ca$ital. 'he adult literacy rate is now almost ;RN, and secondary school enrollmentrates are u$ to 2@N. Shanghai7s :R#year#old students were recently ran&ed first glo%ally in math and reading as$er the standardi>ed PSA metric. !hinese universities now graduate more than :.R million engineers andscientists annually. 'he country is well on its way to a &nowledge#%ased economy. nnovation. n @@;, a%out2@,@@@ domestic $atent a$$lications were filed in !hina, $lacing it third glo%ally, %ehind a$an and theUnited States. !hina is fourth and rising in terms of international $atent a$$lications. At the same time, !hinais targeting a research#and#develo$ment share of G*P of .N %y @:R B dou%le the ratio in @@. 'his fits

with the :th Five#Jear Plan7s new focus on innovation#%ased /strategic emerging industries0 B energyconservation, new#generation information technology, %iotechnology, high#end eMui$ment manufacturing,renewa%le energy, alternative materials, and autos running on alternative fuels. !urrently, these sevenindustries account for N of !hinese G*PT the government is targeting a :RN share %y @@, a significant moveu$ the value chain. Jale historian onathan S$ence has long cautioned that the West tends to view !hinathrough the same lens as it sees itself. 'oday7s cottage industry of !hina dou%ters is a case in $oint. Jes, %y ourstandards, !hina7s im%alances are unsta%le and unsustaina%le. !hinese Premier Wen ia%ao has, in fact, gone$u%lic with a similar critiMue. 8ut that7s why !hina is so different. t actually ta&es these concerns seriously.Unli&e the West, where the very conce$t of strategy has %ecome an o=ymoron, !hina has em%raced atransitional framewor& aimed at resolving its sustaina%ility constraints. 3oreover, unli&e the West, which istra$$ed in a dysfunctional $olitical Muagmire, !hina has %oth the commitment and the wherewithal to deliveron that strategy. 'his is not a time to %et against !hina.

Chinese econom" is not &ue for a har& lan&in'Trevethan (( B )euters corres$ondent





-ic&, une @, )euters, /Analysis( )esource firms %et on !hina %oom, not )ou%ini gloom0,htt$(CCca.reuters.comCarticleC%usinessewsCid!A')E?R:<G@::@@O$ageum%er:Qvirtual8rand!hannel@4 )A 8ut other analysts argued that !hinas immense ur%ani>ation $rogram meant that although someinfrastructure may %e under utili>ed at $resent, it would find customers in the years to come. IJou dont %uildinfrastructure e=$ecting to run at ca$acity on day one. Jou %uild %ased on future demand. 'he other Muestion

you need to as& is what is a hard landing for an economy growing at :@ $ercentOI said a %an& analyst inShanghai, not authori>ed to s$ea& to the media. Is it a slowdown to R $ercentO Even that im$lies, assumingdemand for commodities rises in line with G*P, an additional <@@,@@@ tonnes of co$$er or more than @

million tonnes of iron ore. !hina is a%out %oomsday. 'he ris& of gloomsday, let alone doomsday, is slim.ISince @@?, !hinas G*P has grown %y "ust under :@ $ercent on average each year, while co$$er demand hasincreased %y an average of R $ercent annually and iron ore %y : $ercent. I)emem%er when you %uild afactory in !hina to ma&e cars, you also have to %uild homes for the wor&ers, hos$itals, schools, sho$s and otherinfrastructure. All that adds to the intensity of commodity consum$tion, and that wont end for some time,I theanalyst said. Already almost half of !hinas :.< %illion $o$ulation live in cities and towns, according to acensus in A$ril, u$ from .: $ercent in @@@, although the $revious census used a different counting method.f that trend continues, over the ne=t ten years around @@ million more !hinese rural inha%itants ## two thirdsof the $o$ulation of the entire United States ## will need housing, wor&$laces and household goods. ISome ofthese analysts ta&e traditional free mar&et su$$ly#demand techniMues and try to a$$ly them to a socialistmar&et economy. t "ust doesnt wor&,I said onathan 8arratt, managing director of !ommodity 8ro&ingServices in Sydney. I'he massive amounts of infrastructure "ust to &ee$ u$ with $o$ulation growth even as it

slows will mean any di$ will %e well su$$orted.I

Chinese econom" resilient &espite possible slow&ownReuters (( -3ay , /'oo soon to call time on !hinas economic %oom0,htt$(CCwww.c%c.caCf$CstoryC@::C@RCC<2?R<.html4 )A 8ac& in @@?, Premier Wen ia%ao called the !hinese economy increasingly unsta%le, un%alanced,uncoordinated and ultimately unsustaina%le. He has used the same language this year and theres every chancethe descri$tion will still a$$ly in another four years. 'he timing of when !hinas growth model will IultimatelyIrun out of steam is $ro%a%ly the most critical Muestion facing the world economy. 3ature economies such asthe United States and Germany are luc&y to grow faster than around N. !hina, %y contrast, has e=$anded:@.:N a year on average since :;?2. ts gross domestic $roduct, measured in dollars at mar&et e=change rates,

has dou%led in four years, %oosting oil and commodity $rices and resha$ing swathes of the glo%al economiclandsca$e in the $rocess. So the tra"ectory of !hinas growth ## a gradual deceleration or an a%ru$t full sto$ ##matters far %eyond its %orders. +i *ao&ui, an adviser to the central %an&, rec&ons the economy can maintainannual growth of ;N for the ne=t five years. 8ut some economists see the day of rec&oning a$$roaching fast.ouriel )ou%ini of ew Jor& University has warned of a shar$ slowdown, most li&ely after @:, once it

%ecomes im$ossi%le for !hina to &ee$ increasing fi=ed investment, the main driver of growth. 'he odds are that!hina can &ee$ the show on the road for some time yet and will not %e forced to overhaul its growth modeluntil much later in the decade. IEverything that is ha$$ening in !hina today is unsustaina%le at the current$ace. 'hats not good or %ad. ts "ust an o%servation,I said Andy )othman, !hina macro strategist in Shanghaifor !+SA, a %ro&erage. 'he %rea&nec& growth of !hinas iron ore consum$tion five years ago could not last,)othman said. or could the @:@ $ace of car sales. 'he same will %e true at some $oint of negative realinterest rates, house $rice growth and ineMuality. I8ut none of these things %eing unsustaina%le over the longterm mean they have to come crashing down,I he added. If you were a real %ear, you would argue that someday "ust everything will colla$se. 8ut its hard for me to see that scenario $laying out.I 8A9S U*E)S!)U'J !hinas economy is nothing if not resilient. n recent years it has defied $redictions of a hardlanding due to everything from %ad loans to investment#led overheating, food inflation that e=ceeded @N inearly @@2, the threat of $rotectionism and the glo%al financial crisis. !hinas res$onse to that crisis is grist tothe mill of %oth %ulls and %ears. 'he former $oint to the success of massive and ra$id $um$#$riming, made$ossi%le %y the !ommunist Partys ownershi$ of the %an&s. S&e$tics say the state#directed investment %inge issim$ly storing u$ $ro%lems %y saddling the %an&s with huge, inci$ient %ad de%ts as a result of la= lending tolocal governments. ason 8edford with accounting and consultancy firm 9P3G in 8ei"ing ac&nowledged theris&s to %an&s in the event of a %ig slum$ in the $ro$erty and land they hold as collateral for loans. 8ut he$layed down s$ecific worries a%out a souring of home mortgages, since home %uyers in !hina must ma&e adown $ayment of at least @ $ercent. I certainly dont envisage the $otential for anything a$$roaching the

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destructive nature of the colla$se in the U.S. real estate mar&et, sim$ly %ecause, if there is a %u%%le here, it isnot a de%t#financed real estate %u%%le,I 8edford said.



:eBico

Resilient an& risin'Silber% (( B res$ected economics and science writer for Scientific American 3ind une, 9enneth, /3e=icosresilient mar&et( the 3e=ican stoc& mar&et has a history of overcoming economic and financial crises0,)esearch 3aga>ine $. <<, gale infotrac, A+X

'he %enchmar& P! inde=, which at the start of @@@ was slightly a%ove ?,@@@, hit a $ea& of :,;?R in 3ay @@2 %efore falling to :;, in 3ay @@;. As of *ecem%er @@;, it was a%ove its $re#crisis $ea&. At the end of@:@ the P! hit an all#time high of 2,RR@ %efore retreating mildly into the vicinity of ?,@@@ in the secondMuarter of @::. Goldman Sachs has la%eled 3e=ico one of the #::, a grou$ of :: nations $oised to follow thefour 8)!s of 8ra>il, )ussia, ndia and !hina in ta&ing on e=$anded roles in the world economy. 3e=ico, along with South9orea, is a more develo$ed economy than the %ul& of the #::, a diverse set that includes frontier mar&ets such as igeria and 8angladesh, and yet 3e=ico is included in

the grou$ing for its high growth $otential. ndeed, some $ro"ections have $laced 3e=ico as the worlds fifth largest economy in @R@, com$ared to

its current $osition narrowly missing the to$ :@. 'his would $ut 3e=ico %ehind !hina, the U.S., ndia and 8ra>il and ahead of )ussia. 3e=ico may not %e a 8)!##though 3e=ican officials have %een &nown to grum%le that the category should %e

called 8)!3s##%ut it is set to carry significant weight whatever the la%el. ota%ly, such o$timism a%out growth is occurring amid a s$ate of grim newsfrom 3e=ico a%out escalating violence %y drug cartels. Such violence, while it holds $otential to damagetourism revenues, has had little im$act thus far in dam$ening investor enthusiasm. As in the $ast, :eBicosmarket is showin' consi&erable resilience/



erman"

erman econom" resilient – stron' in&ustrial core an& work a'reements)ew Eork Times ( -:C<C:@, 3ichael Slac&man, /8avaria 8oom, %ut Germans Feel Economic Pressure,0htt$(CCwww.nytimes.comC@:@C:CRCworldCeuro$eCRgermany.html4

8y nearly every measure this industrial region in 8avaria, home to e=$orting giants li&e Siemens Healthcare, Adidas and Puma, is at the center of erman"s resilient economic success, driving the nation7s growtheven as much of Euro$e struggles to stay solvent. With an unem$loyment rate of .R $ercent and !hristmas mar&ets full of sho$$ers

and revelers, /8avaria is the $lanet of the ha$$y ,0 said 9atrin Schmidt, a la%or analyst with the Federal Em$loyment Agency %ased in

urem%erg. E=ce$t that many $eo$le in this region, and around the nation, seem su%dued and uncertain a%out their own financial health. Germany7sgood fortune, however cons$icuous to other Euro$eans, is widely viewed here as having come at the e=$ense of its wor&ers, who for the $ast decade havesacrificed wages and %enefits to ma&e their em$loyers more com$etitive. / don7t %elieve that the economic situation really im$roved,0 said 9arl#Hans

*iem, a @#year#old metal wor&er. 'his disconnect 6 %ullish economic indicators com%ined with simmering discontenteven among the em$loyed 6 is at the core of the conflict %etween Germany and some of its euro >one alliesover how to handle the continuing Euro$ean financial crisis. German leaders have %een confronted with the o$$osing forces of astrong economy and a wor& force that has seen its real wages, ad"usted for inflation, decline over the $ast decade. When Greece was in crisis, !hancellor Angela 3er&el was critici>ed from a%road for moving too slowly to hel$ reassure mar&ets that it stood %ehind the euro, and at home for agreeing to doleout too much aid. With the more recent rish crisis, she came under attac& around Euro$e for demanding that $rivate investors share the %urden offuture %ailouts, while at home for not insisting on that &ind of accounta%ility sooner. /'hey should %etter s$end the money hereT we have $ro%lems of ourown,0 said Sa%ine Striegel, <R, who is living with her $arents in near%y 8aiersdorf, having recently lost a tem$orary "o% with Siemens. Anti#eurosentiments have run so hot that the finance minister, Wolfgang Sch`u%le, told the daily news$a$er 8ild this month the /danger of an anti#euro $arty

needs to %e ta&en seriously.0 Germany7s $olitical leaders and %usiness e=ecutives argue that the economy has %enefited from the common currency. For

a nation that derives nearly half of its gross domestic $roduct from e=$orts, a sta%le currency has greatly easedcross%order commerce in the unified euro >one. And yet there is %road sentiment across Germany that the euro has not %een good forindividuals. A recent survey %y one of Germany7s $remier research com$anies, nfratest dima$, of :,@@< $eo$le found this month that R? $ercent feelGermany should have &e$t the mar&, while @ $ercent said the euro was a disadvantage to them $ersonally. / do thin& that a lot %ecame moree=$ensive0 with the euro, said onas 3ol>%erger, :, an a$$rentice at the hotel Grauer Wolf on the main street of Erlangen. /We feel that too in the hotelindustry, es$ecially in the restaurant. 'here are less $eo$le, less is %eing ordered.0 +ow salaries 6 and higher $rices 6 are a core com$laint of German wor&ers who are increasingly demanding wage increases after a decade in which their real earnings dro$$ed %y <.R $ercent when ad"usted for inflation,

according to a recent re$ort %y the nternational +a%or 5rgani>ation. E=$orts have grown ro%ustly in $art %ecause wor&ers agreed years ago to reduced wages and reduced hours to ma&e Germany more com$etitive. +i&e wor&ers in otherindustriali>ed nations, including the United States, Germans also have had to acce$t that the "o%s availa%le arenot as secure as they once were. 'he num%er of $eo$le in nonstandard or aty$ical em$loyment in Germany increased to ?.? million in @@2

from R.; million in :;;2, according to the Federal Statistical 5ffice. / see how families are struggling,0 said E%erhard rlinger, administrator for

Erlangen#Hchstadt, a district of a%out :@,@@@ $eo$le around the city of Erlangen. /n fact, $art of the economic $ros$erity comesfrom $eo$le not getting the social security they should have. Germans are very reluctant to hel$ other $eo$le

when they have had to ste$ %ac& from their own demands.0 Jet these feelings of insecurity do not fit neatly into the $icture of anation that has stri&ingly out$erformed its neigh%ors. n fact, many 8avarian %usinesses say their %iggest $ro%lem these days is a shortage of s&illed wor&ers to fill $ositions that would hel$ meet a growing demand for German Muality goods. Across the nation, Germany has e=$erienced a severeshortage of s&illed wor&ers, in $art %ecause of its low unem$loyment rate, %ut also %ecause of a low %irth rate and a relatively unwelcoming environmentfor immigrants, said officials, %usiness leaders and e=$erts. /We have lost contracts %ecause we "ust don7t have the $eo$le,0 said 9arl#Hein> ohn, chiefe=ecutive officer of the small software develo$er called nfoteam in the near%y village of 8u%enreuth. / &now that all my industry $artners are havingtrou%le finding adeMuately educated $eo$le.0 3r. ohn said he had to wal& away from : million in contracts last year. 8ut nfoteam still grew.Germany7s economy is on trac& to e=$and at nearly < $ercent this year, while many of its southern neigh%ors struggle through recession. 'he nationalunem$loyment rate is at an :2#year low of ? $ercent. 'he country7s industrial out$ut rose faster than e=$ected and although e=$orts fell une=$ectedly in5cto%er %y :.: $ercent, im$orts rose to a new $ost#war high. 'hat rise in im$orts s$urred some o$timism that the consumer sector may $lay a larger rolein fueling Germany7s future economic growth as demand for its $roducts stalls in the financially trou%led euro >one nations. Growth is e=$ected tocontinue in @::, and last wee& a &ey monitoring institute re$orted that %usiness confidence was u$ com$ared with a year ago. German $olicy ma&ershave struggled, at times aw&wardly, to &ee$ from inflaming $u%lic sentiment at home while at the same time recogni>ing that German su$$ort for some wea&er neigh%ors is vital to $reserving the euro and &ee$ing e=$orts strong. 3r. Sch`u%le, the finance minister, said that the $u%lic needed to %etterunderstand that the euro was not the enemy of $ros$erity, %ut that it drove $ros$erity. /Without the euro, every German would %e $oorer,0 he told 8ild./Without the euro, the la%or mar&et would loo& a lot worse.0 3any $eo$le do say that the euro is in Germany7s %roader interest, %ut that has not %eenaccom$anied %y enthusiasm for the currency or su$$ort for s$ending German money to hel$ other nations. / also feel that with the euro all 6 or let7s say

much 6 has %ecome more e=$ensive,0 said Peter 9ern, a hairdresser in Erlangen. /And if one also ta&es into account that $eo$le often do not earn more,then of course $ro%lems %ecome visi%le.0

)o risk of crisis – assets check full collapseDau&erstF&t G ?ellermann 9 -3arch @@?, 3ichael -director of the *ivision for Economic and SocialPolicy at the Friedrich#E%ert#Stiftung4 A* !hristian -research fellow in the nternational Policy Analysis Unitat the Friedrich#E%ert#Stiftung4, /!ontrolling the )is&s of a Glo%al Economy,0 htt$(CCli%rary.fes.deC$df#filesCie>C@<?<<.$df 4

!osts and ris&s, es$ecially in the crisis scenario, %ut also to some degree in the reference scenario, lie inunem$loyment remaining high and $ros$erity having to %e $artially sacrificed on the altar of com$etitiveness,$otentially forcing Germany to $artici$ate in military action to secure raw materials, or at least %elieve that it must ma&e

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/25/world/europe/25germany.html

http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/04744.pdf


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/25/world/europe/25germany.html





foreign $olicy concessions to su$$liers, such as )ussia. 'he regionali>ation of the glo%al economy could intensify, even though an a$$reciation of theEuro may $ull more im$orts in the Euro >one, which would not com$ensate, however, for the loss in U.S. consum$tion due to a devalued dollar, and thus

not $revent the glo%al colla$se of growth. In erman" an& in 4urope a potentiall" stron' influB of &ollars woul& initiall" lea& to the 4uros appreciation an& risin' prices of 4uropean2erman assets -stoc&s, real estate, etc.4. 'his asset $rice inflation does not necessarily mean inflation in goods mar&ets, since chea$er im$orts would have a dam$eningeffect. 5n one hand, the heavy influ= of foreign ca$ital might lead to a re$eat $erformance of the b+ocust de%ate, and, on the other hand, %ring a%out

another wave of economic nationalism -fear of foreign ta&eovers4. )ising asset values, however, would also strengthen consumers$ending %y $roviding an illusion of $ros$erity . 'he E!8 would have to decide if it should $ut a halt to this asset inflation or, in view oflow consumer $rice inflation, tolerate it. Attem$ts to arrest it %y means of raised interest rates would have the fatal side effect of attracting additional

ca$ital. In both the crisis – an& the reference scenario% there are political options to% minimi$e

costs an& risks% an& make use of opportunities/ *uring a crisis, the most li&ely $olicies to findsu$$orters are $rotectionist $olicies along the line of bevery%ody for himself, which generally escalate a crisissituation. n this case it would %e necessary to counter%alance the emergence of the crisis scenario while still in the reference scenario, something

rather difficult, given the e=isting hegemonic $ower structures with dominant free#mar&et oriented actors.



In&ia



Inevitable

4con Collapse Inevitable- ;oo& prices an& bureaucratic inefficienciesSchuman ((# American author and "ournalist who s$eciali>es in Asian economics, $olitics and history. Asia

%usiness corres$ondent for '3E 3aga>ine-3ichael, /ndia7s economy( Headed for trou%leO0 :C:2C::, htt$(CCcuriousca$italist.%logs.time.comC@::C@:C:2CindiaNEN2@N;;s#economy#headed#for#trou%leC, !!4

ust loo& at the mess ndia finds itself in. 'he wholesale $rice inde= soared 2.<N in *ecem%er com$ared to a year earlier. Prices of onions, vegeta%les and other sta$les are rising even faster. 'he latest read of the government food

$rice inde= shows they "um$ed almost :?N in a year. 'hats a serious, serious matter for a country with so many$eo$le still stuc& in $overty B nothing eats into the food on a $oor mans dinner ta%le li&e ra$idly rising $rices. !ertain %asic foods, li&e onions,

are such a crucial ingredient in ndian coo&ing that $eo$le "ust cant live without them, so rising $rices at the local mar&et hit hard. 'he government has %een scram%ling to contain the damage, %y, for e=am$le, %anning the e=$ort of onions. Some of this food inflation could well %e tem$orary B a result of

unusual weather conditions that hurt the onion cro$, for e=am$le. ndia is also not the only country facing escalating $rices, es$ecially of food. Pricesof commodities are rising across the %oard , with the Food and Agriculture 5rgani>ations food $rice inde= hitting a record in *ecem%er.

8ut ndias inflation is also its own fault. A mi= of loose %udgets and easy money -leftover from recession#%usting efforts4 with alac&luster a$$roach towards much#needed reforms -more deregulation, for e=am$le4 and investments -i.e., in infrastructure4

have created %ottlenec&s that s$awn inefficiencies and $ush u$ $rices. Heres more from !ourtis( f you have aggressivemonetary and fiscal $olicy, together with %ooming la%or mar&et e=$ansion, you %etter have hugely $owerful su$$ly side $olicies, or inflation can onlye=$lode... guess what, in the a%sence of !hina style aggressive su$$ly side $olicies #infrastructure, deregulation, o$ening of the economy, education##,inflation is e=$loding... and which means Muic&ly dro$$ing com$etitiveness.

Collapse Inevitable- &ecreasin' competitiveness an& rampant inflation

((# American author and "ournalist who s$eciali>es in Asian economics, $olitics and history. Asia %usinesscorres$ondent for '3E 3aga>ine-3ichael, /ndia7s economy( Headed for trou%leO0 :C:2C::, htt$(CCcuriousca$italist.%logs.time.comC@::C@:C:2CindiaNEN2@N;;s#economy#headed#for#trou%leC, !!4

ndias $redicament is somewhat sym%olic of whats ha$$ening to emerging mar&ets overall. After s$lashingmoney around for the $ast two years trying to &ee$ their economies growing as the West san&, theyre nowdealing with the conseMuences of those $olicies. Part of the $ro%lem as well has %een inflicted u$on them %y $olicy in the struggling

West. 'he e=$ansionary $ractices of the Federal )eserve have li&ely hel$ed sto&e inflation %y ram$ing u$ theamount of cash in the world economy. 8ut the trou%les in ndia should also act as a wa&e#u$ call for ew *elhi. ndia needs to focus more

on im$roving its infrastructure and education systems and continuing the $rocess of deregulation that s$ar&ed its economic miracle in the first $lace toensure its growth stays healthy. Goldman Sachs economist 'ushar Poddar ho$es ndias $olicyma&ers will get the message. Heres what Poddar said in arecent re$ort( We would stress that des$ite the ris&s mentioned a%ove, the underlying structural growth story remains strong. f un%ridled o$timisma%out economic fundamentals gives way to an a$$reciation of ris&s which can then %e meaningfully $riced %y mar&ets and addressed %y $olicyma&ers,

we thin& it would lead to a more sustaina%le growth environment. 'he situation is also a lesson for the rest of the emerging

world. Growth solves many $ro%lems %ut creates others, so $olicyma&ers have to do "ust as much to managethat growth in good times as nurture it in %ad times.

Despite apparent 'rowth In&ias econom" will inevitabl" collapse,,C )ews 725(-88! 8usiness ews, /ndia7s economic growth slows as rising $rices hurt,0 RC:C::, htt$(CCwww.%%c.co.u&CnewsC%usiness#:R;2, !!4

Analysts say a surge in $rices of essential commodities, cou$led with measures to cool the economy, has started tota&e a toll on growth. I)aging inflation and a gradual increase in %orrowing costs has dam$ened domesticdemand, alongside lac&lustre investment sentiment,I said )adhi&a )ao of Forecast Pte. 'he central %an& has increasedinterest rates nine times in :R months. 'he last rise on 3ay %oosted the %enchmar& interest rate %y R@ %asis $oints to ?.RN. I We have asituation where inflation is uncomforta%ly high, so the authorities are tac&ling it %y raising interest rates,I said

ustin Wood of the Economist !or$orate etwor&. I5%viously this tightening environment has %een slowing things down.I he

added.

Despite si'ns of 'rowth economic collapse is loomin',,C )ews 725(-88! 8usiness ews, /ndia7s economic growth slows as rising $rices hurt,0 RC:C::, htt$(CCwww.%%c.co.u&CnewsC%usiness#:R;2, !!4

ndias economy has $osted ro%ust growth since the glo%al financial crisis. However, the )eserve 8an& of ndias

monetary tightening $olicies have seen a loss of momentum. Analysts say that as the central %an& continues its fight against rising

$rices, the $ace of growth is li&ely to %e slow for some time. I thin& this loss of growth momentum will continue for industry for a

Muarter or two %ecause we are not yet done with interest rate hi&es,I said Shu%hada )ao of JES 8an&. However, analysts warned that thougha slowdown in growth had %een %roadly e=$ected, continued loss of momentum would have an adverse effecton the economy. It is significant %ecause it is the first Muarter of su%#2N growth since the crisis,I said Sonal erma

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/01/18/india%E2%80%99s-economy-headed-for-trouble/




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13592833










of omura. I'he last four Muarters we have %een growing a%ove 2N, so this is really a slow starting $oint for the ne=t financial year,I she added.

Collapse inevitable- &eclinin' investment% inflation% &ecrease& eBports% slow 'rowthScrutton 12(9# Prominent "ournalist s$eciali>ing in international affairs, writes for reuters among other newsorgani>ations-Alistair, /ndia7s economy s&ids as leaders slee$ at the wheel,0 C:?C::, htt$(CCin.reuters.comCarticleC@::C@C:?Cidndia#R??RR@::@:?4

'he highly criticised tri$, which initially em%oldened the guru and then %ac&fired when $olice tear#gassed his rally three day later, underscored

a sense of distracted leaders fruitlessly trying to $ut out fires. !ritics would have $referred 3u&her"ee focus

more on dealing with a confluence of worrying economic trends ## accelerating inflation, declining foreigninvestment and slower growth and domestic investment ## that $olicy inertia will only ma&e worse. Asias third#largesteconomy is still set to grow around 2 $ercent this fiscal year, faster than any ma"or economy e=ce$t !hina. However, there areominous signs, from wea&er car sales to a di$ in steel im$orts, that have coincided with glo%al worries thatemerging mar&ets could soon hit a financial %um$. nvestment was essentially flat in the 3arch Muarter andindustrial out$ut rose . $ercent in A$ril, its slowest in three months. nflation accelerated faster than e=$ected

in 3ay, to ;.@ $ercent, with $rice $ressures s$reading from food to the manufacturing sector, while the central %an&may have run out of tools to contain it after ten rate rises. India may grow around ? $ercent without reforms,I saidSan"ay 3athur, a Singa$ore#%ased economist at )oyal 8an& of Scotland, one of several economists who have warned ndias economic growth could fall

%elow 2 $ercent. In the ndia conte=t, thats not enough.I

Collapse inevitable- Corruption% Scan&als% an& investor confi&enceScrutton 12(9# Prominent "ournalist s$eciali>ing in international affairs, writes for reuters among other news

organi>ations-Alistair, /ndia7s economy s&ids as leaders slee$ at the wheel,0 C:?C::, htt$(CCin.reuters.comCarticleC@::C@C:?Cidndia#R??RR@::@:?4

I'he government is losing control of the agenda. What ma&es it more serious is that this has coincided with aslowdown in the economy and a di$ in investor confidence,I said *elhi University $rofessor 3ahesh )angara"an. Its on asli$$ery slo$e.I 3any $oliticians and industrialists %elieve that a $olicy lim%o is of no real conseMuence ## that the :. trillion economic "uggernaut

will sim$ly hum along in s$ite of the government, and so it has $roved for most of Singhs seven years in $ower. 8ut a series of scams, to$$ed %y allegations of &ic&%ac&s in the granting of telecom licenses that may have cost the government u$ to ; %illion, have more than $aralysed $arliament. 'hey have led to a s$iralling lac& of confidence. Foreign directinvestment fell 2.R $ercent in @:@C::, while the Sense= has fallen nearly : $ercent since mid#ovem%er, when the corru$tion

scandals %egan to unravel. 'hat com$ares with emerging mar&ets eMuities firming around $ercent in the same $eriod. After the 'hai %aht, thendian ru$ee is the wea&est currency this year against the dollar among the currencies monitored daily in Asia %y )euters. 'he

$essimistic scenario is one of lower growth, higher inflation and $ressures on ndias fiscal deficit.



Resilient

Its resilientRa.ah% 72(1 B managing director and !5 of Asian eMuities at Fran&lin 'em$leton nvestments Su&umar,/ndia resilient in s$ite of inflationary headwinds0, nvestment Wee&, $. <, $roMuest, A+X

ndia has emerged as one of the to$ investment destinations, over the last decade, hel$ed %y its strongfundamentals, growth $otential and resilience during the financial crisis. 'he economy has undergonesignificant transformation during this $eriod hel$ed %y drivers such as reforms, outsourcing and strong ca$ital flows. 'he last few years have witnessed the arrival of com$anies with glo%al scale and while tech

com$anies %ecame ndias $oster %oys, com$anies from other sectors such as metals, ca$ital goods and telecoms also occu$ied centre stage. ndian com$anies %enefitted from the strongdemand growth for goods and services and easy availa%ility of ca$ital # large firms had increased a$$etite forglo%al acMuisitions. Strong earnings growth, high )oE and low leverage have %een im$ortant factors forincreased confidence in ndian firms. )ecently, headwinds have emerged in the form of graft $ro%es at various institutions with $ersistently high levels of inflation. 'he latter is driven %y s u$$ly#

demand side factors and the rise in international commodity $rices. )eserve 8an& of ndia was one of the first central %an&s to tighten monetary $olicy # however, growth momentum has remained strong and growth is e=$ected to %e at a%out

2.RN for the year ended 3arch @::, close to $re#crisis levels. While the $ace may moderate due to cyclical factors and tightening, ndia ise=$ected to remain one of the fastest growing ma"or economies. *es$ite short#term concerns, ndia remains anattractive growth story over the medium term. A well#%alanced growth model and the lac& of e=cesses, highsavings rate and a large young $o$ulation holds the economy in good stead. Private entre$reneurshi$ has flourished and is s$reading overseas. 'he

%readth and de$th of the eMuity mar&ets and cor$orate regulatory framewor& are &ey $ositives.'he government will eventually $ush through further structuralreforms that address infrastructure and s&ill ga$s. olatility cannot %e ruled out over the near term, %ut the direction remains $ositive.

)o &ebt crisis4IU Hiews#ire% 72@ B newswire /ndia economy( n good sha$e0, $roMuest, A+X

Although ndias total foreign de%t stoc& will continue to rise during the ne=t few years, e=ternal de%t indicators will im$rove. ndias total e=ternal de%t stoc& stood at US@.%n at end#@@2 and is $ro"ected to rise to US?R.2%n %y end#@:. 'he increase will %e driven %y a rise in %oth medium# and long#term de%t and also short#term

%orrowing.'he gradual li%eralisation of the ca$ital account, cou$led with strong domestic demand, encouraged localfirms to %orrow on international de%t mar&ets in @@#@2, %ut com$anies and the government ali&e found their access to glo%al ca$ital mar&ets restricted in late @@2 and early @@;, as

foreign investors %ecame ris&#averse owing to the glo%al financial crisis. Short#term de%t, which is dominated %y trade credit, will rise to US?<.<%n in@:, from an estimated US@.%n in @:@. *es$ite the forecast increase in e=ternal de%t in a%solute terms,healthy trade growth in @::#: will mean that total de%t falls slightly as a $ercentage of e=$orts of goods and services, to an average of R.<N in the two#year

$eriod, com$ared with an estimated R;.N in @:@. For several reasons ndia is unli&ely to face an e=ternal de%t crisis in @::#:. 'hematurity $rofile of the countrys e=ternal de%t is largely long#term( only an estimated <N of total e=ternal de%t

was short#term in @:@. Foreign#e=change reserves remain high and are sufficient to cover the entire e=ternal

de%t stoc&.



)uke #ar Doesnt 4Btinction

)uclear war &oesnt escalate 'loball"/:artin% (!83 -8rian, Professor of Social Sciences in the School of Social Sciences, 3edia and !ommunicationat the University of Wollongong, ournal of Peace )esearch, ol. :;, o. <, $$. 2?#@@htt$(CCwww.uow.edu.auCartsCstsC%martinC$u%sC2"$r.html4

t often has %een argued that the use of a few nuclear wea$ons could lead, gradually or suddenly, to an all#outnuclear war %etween the su$er$owers. 8ut it is also at least $ossi%le that a nuclear e=change could occur

without this leading to all#out war. A nuclear war might %e waged solely in the 3iddle EastT or an e=changemight occur consisting of nuclear attac&s %y the US on remote installations in southern Soviet Union and %ythe Soviet Union on remote US installations in AustraliaT or tactical nuclear wea$ons might %e used in aconfrontation restricted to Euro$e, or to the %order region %etween !hina and the Soviet Union. 'he li&elihoodof any such $ossi%ilities is a matter of some dis$ute. What should not %e in dis$ute is the $ossi%ility # whateverassessment is made of its li&elihood # that a nuclear war can occur which is less than all#out glo%al nuclear war.

Anti#war $eo$le # and others # s$end a lot of time arguing that limited nuclear war is virtually im$ossi%le. 'heirmain reason for arguing against military strategies for limited nuclear war seems to %e that this $ossi%ilityma&es nuclear war seem more $lausi%le. 8ut $lausi%le to whomO 3ilitary leaders and national securitymanagers are not li&ely to %e swayed %y arguments advanced %y the anti#war movement -though they may %eswayed %y its $olitical strength4. So the argument that limited nuclear war is im$ossi%le has im$act mainly onthe $u%lic, which is $ushed into all#or#nothing thin&ing, leading to a$athy and resignation.

3uch of the argumentation $resented %y anti#war $eo$le criticising the conce$t of limited nuclear war seemsto %e almost a refle= action against $lanning %y militarists. t is im$ortant to realise that strategic $lanninga%out limited nuclear war is not automatically sus$ect "ust %ecause such thin&ing is done %y military $lanners.t is entirely $ossi%le for $eace activists to thin& a%out and to $re$are their own strategies to confront the$olitical conseMuences of nuclear war, and furthermore to do this in a way which reduces the li&elihood ofnuclear war in the first $lace.;X

4ven if war &oes escalate% it wont cause eBtinction/:artin% (!83 -8rian, Professor of Social Sciences in the School of Social Sciences, 3edia and !ommunicationat the University of Wollongong, ournal of Peace )esearch, ol. :;, o. <, $$. 2?#@@htt$(CCwww.uow.edu.auCartsCstsC%martinC$u%sC2"$r.html4

'o summarise the a%ove $oints, a ma"or glo%al nuclear war in which $o$ulation centres in the US, SovietUnion, Euro$e and !hina ware targeted, with no effective civil defence measures ta&en, could &ill directly$erha$s <@@ to <R@ million $eo$le. nduced effects, in $articular starvation or e$idemics following agriculturalfailure or economic %rea&down, might add u$ to several hundred million deaths to the total, though this ismost uncertain.Such an eventuality would %e a catastro$he of enormous $ro$ortions, %ut it is far from e=tinction. Even in themost e=treme case there would remain alive some <@@@ million $eo$le, a%out nine#tenths of the worlds$o$ulation, most of them unaffected $hysically %y the nuclear war. 'he following areas would %e relativelyunscathed, unless nuclear attac&s were made in these regions( South and !entral America, Africa, the 3iddleEast, the ndian su%continent, Southeast Asia, Australasia, 5ceania and large $arts of !hina. Even in the mid#latitudes of the northern hemis$here where most of the nuclear wea$ons would %e e=$loded, areas u$wind ofnuclear attac&s would remain free of heavy radioactive contamination, such as Portugal, reland and 8ritish

!olum%ia.3any $eo$le, $erha$s es$ecially in the $eace movement, %elieve that glo%al nuclear war will lead to the deathof most or all of the worlds $o$ulation.:X Jet the availa%le scientific evidence $rovides no %asis for this %eliefFurthermore, there seem to %e no convincing scientific arguments that nuclear war could cause humane=tinction.:X n $articular, the idea of over&ill, if ta&en to im$ly the ca$acity to &ill everyone on earth, ishighly misleading.:<Xn the a%sence of any $ositive evidence, statements that nuclear war will lead to the death of all or most $eo$leon earth should %e considered e=aggerations. n most cases the e=aggeration is unintended, since $eo$leholding or stating a %elief in nuclear e=tinction are Muite sincere.:RX

***#ars***

http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82jpr.html






Acci&ental

)o acci&ental escalation- empiricsDecision makin' an& empirics prove no acci&ental warJuinlan 7# former senior fellow at the nternational nstitute of Strategic Studies-Sir 3ichael, /'hin&ing A%out uclear Wea$ons,0 htt$(CCwww.rusi.orgCdownloadsCassetsCWHP<:DKU+A.$df, first $u%lished in :;;?, reedited in@@R,4

'here have certainly %een, in over fifty years since the Second World War, many accidents involving nuclear

wea$ons, from trans$orters s&idding off roads to strategic %om%ers crashing with or losing the wea$ons they carried -in $ast days when such carriage was a freMuent feature of readiness arrangements4. A few of these accidents may have released into the near%y atmos$here highly to=ic material. onehowever has entailed a nuclear e=$losion. Some commentators suggest that this reflects remar&a%le good fortune amid such massive activity and

de$loyment over so long. A more rational deduction from the facts of this e=$erience would however %e that theprobabilit" of an" acci&ents tri''erin' a nuclear eBplosion is eBtremel" low . t might %e further noted that

the mechanisms needed to set off such an e=$losion are highly com$le=T and that in a large num%er of ways thehalf#century has seen e=tensive im$rovements in safety arrangements. t is undou%tedly $ossi%le to see res$ects in which, after

the !old War, some of the factors %earing u$on ris& may %e new or more adverseT %ut some are $lainly less so. 'he half#century we havecome through entirely without accidental e=$losion included early years in which &nowledge was s&etchier,

wea$on design less safety#oriented and $recautions less develo$ed than they later %ecame, as well as years in which wea$on num%ers were larger, de$loyments more wides$read and alert arrangements more tense.

Decision makin' an& empirics prove no acci&ental war

Juinlan 7# former senior fellow at the nternational nstitute of Strategic Studies-Sir 3ichael, /'hin&ing A%out uclear Wea$ons,0 htt$(CCwww.rusi.orgCdownloadsCassetsCWHP<:DKU+A.$df, first $u%lished in :;;?, reedited in@@R,4

Similar considerations a$$ly to the hy$othesis of war %eing mista&enly triggered %y false alarm or misunderstanding. !ritics again $oint to thefact, as it is understood, of numerous occasions when initial ste$s in alert seMuences for US nuclear forces were em%ar&edu$on, or at least called for, %y indicators mista&en or misinter$reted. n none of these instances, it is acce$ted, didmatters get at all near to nuclear launch6more good fortune, the critics have suggested. 8ut the rival and more logical inferencefrom $erha$s hundreds of events stretching over fifty years of e=$erience $resents itself once more( that theprobabilit" of initial misinterpretation lea&in' far towar&s mistaken launch is hu'el" remote.

Precisely %ecause any nuclear#wea$on $ossessor recognises the vast gravity of any launch, decision seMuences havemany ste$s, and human decision is re$eatedly inter$osed as well as ca$$ing the seMuences. -And even at the height ofthe !old War no Western nuclear $ower had a launch#on#warning $olicy6that is, an intention to initiate nuclear retaliation on $erceived evidence of

im$ending rather than $rovenly#actual attac&.4 'o convey that %ecause an early ste$ was $rom$ted we somehow came close

to accidental nuclear war is wild hy$er%ole. History anyway scarcely offers ready e=am$les of ma"or war started %y accident -miscalculation is another matter, not at issue here4 even %efore the nuclear revolution im$osed an order#of#magnitude increase in caution

)o acci&ental war- empirics an& human &ecision makin'Juinlan !# former senior fellow at the nternational nstitute of Strategic Studies-Sir 3ichael, /'hin&ing A%out uclear Wea$ons( Princi$les, Pro%lems, Pros$ects,0 5=ford University Press4

Similar considerations a$$ly to the hy$othesis of nuclear war %eing mista&enly triggered %y false alarm. !ritics again $oint to the fact, as it is

understood, of numerous occasions when initial ste$s in alert seMuences for US nuclear forces were em%ar&edu$on, or at least called for, %y indicators mista&en or misconstrued. n none of these instances, it is acce$ted, didmatters get at all near to nuclear launch#e=traordinary good fortune again, critics have suggested. 8ut the rival andmore lo'ical inference from hundreds of events stretching over si=ty years of e=$erience $resents itself once more( that the$ro%a%ility of initial misinter$retation leading far towards mista&en launch is remote. Precisely %ecause anynuclear#wea$on $ossessor recogni>es the vast gravity of any launch, releases seMuences have many ste$s, andhuman decision is re$eatedly inter$osed as well as ca$$ing the seMuences. 'o convey that %ecause a first ste$

was $rom$ted the world somehow came close to accidental nuclear war is wild hy$er%oly, rather li&e asserting, when a

tennis cham$ion has lost his o$ening service game, that he was nearly %eaten in straight sets. History anyway scarcely offers any readye=am$le of maior war started %y accident even %efore the nuclear revolution im$osed an order#of#magnitudeincrease in caution.

)o miscalc- lo'icall" impossibleJuinlan !# former senior fellow at the nternational nstitute of Strategic Studies

-Sir 3ichael, /'hin&ing A%out uclear Wea$ons( Princi$les, Pro%lems, Pros$ects,0 5=ford University Press4

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/WHP41_QUINLAN.pdf






5ne s$ecial form of miscalculation a$$eared s$oradically in the s$eculations of academic commentators, though it was scarcely ever to

%e encountered#at least so far as my own o%servation went#in the utterances of $ractical $lanners within government. 'his is the idea thatnuclear war might %e erroneously triggered, or erroneously widened, through a state under attac& misreading either what sort of attac& it

was %eing su%"ected to, or where the attac& came from. 'he $ostulated misreading of the nature of the attac& referred in$articular to the hy$othesis that if a delivery system#normally a missile#that was &nown to %e ca$a%le of carrying either a nuclear or a

conventional warhead was launched in a conventional role, the target country might, on detecting the launch throughits early warning systems, misconstrue the mission as an imminent nuclear stri&e and immediately unleash a nuclearcounter#stri&e of its own. 'his con"ecture was voiced, for e=am$le, as a criticism of the $ro$osals for giving the US 'rident S+83, long associated with

nuclear missions, a ca$a%ility to deliver conventional warheads. Whatever the merit of those $ro$osals -it is not e=$lored here4, it is har& to

re'ar& this particular apprehension as havin' an" real-life cre&ibilit" . 'he flight time of a %allistic missile would not e=ceed a%out thirty minutes, and that of a cruise missile a few hours, %efore arrival on target made its character#conventional or nuclear#

unmista&a%le. o government will need, and no non lunatic government could wish, to ta&e within so short a s$an of time aste$ as enormous and irrevoca%le as the e=ecution of a nuclear stri&e on the %asis of early#warning informationalone without &nowing the true nature of the incoming attac&. 'he s$eculation tends moreover to %e e=$ressed

without reference either to any realistic $olitical or conflict#related conte=t though to render the e$isode$lausi%le, or to the manifest interest of the launching country, should there %e any ris& of dou%t, in enduring#that there was no misinter$retation of its conventionally armed launch.



:iscalculationRational proportionalit" prevents miscalc – actors reco'ni$e response:owatt-arssen (( -anuary @::, )olf, senior fellow at Harvard7s 8elfer !enter, slam and the 8om%( )eligious ustification For and Againstuclear Wea$ons,0 htt$(CC%elfercenter.&sg.harvard.eduCfilesCu$loadsCslamDandDtheD8om%#Final#$t:.$df 4

'he sta%ility of nuclear stalemate is $redicated on an assum$tion that no rational actor will use nuclear wea$onsagainst an adversary who has the ca$acity to retaliate in &ind. 'he resulting doctrine of =mutuall" assure&&estruction> might seem li&e madness, %ut it has lowere& the risks of makin' serious miscalculations thatcoul& unleash a nuclear holocaust/ States are not deterred from using nuclear wea$ons %ecause of moral

or ethical concernsT decision#ma&ers ma&e cold, hard calculations of self interest and have concluded that theycannot achieve their goals %y using nuclear arsenals.

)on-state &ont increase miscalculation – terrorists wiel& weapons rationall" :owatt-arssen (( -anuary @::, )olf, senior fellow at Harvard7s 8elfer !enter, slam and the 8om%( )eligious ustification For and Againstuclear Wea$ons,0 htt$(CC%elfercenter.&sg.harvard.eduCfilesCu$loadsCslamDandDtheD8om%#Final#$t:.$df 4

'he nuclear $lay %oo& needs to %e re#written to ta&e into account the emerging features of nuclear threats resulting from such %roader trends asglo%ali>ation, e=tremism, and energy demands. !alculations %ased on national interest will no longer constitute a sufficient %asis for sustaining a via%lenuclear order. Some measure of moral and ethical standards must enter into the eMuation, in order for a consensus to emerge among nations that mustincreasingly wor& together to mitigate nuclear#related ris&s. n a world %rimming with the stuff of a nuclear Armageddon, can we assign different moralstandards in assessing the %ehavior of states and su%#state actorsO What does nuclear accounta%ility and res$onsi%ility mean in the event a state were to wittingly or unwittingly $rovide nuclear ca$a%ilities to terroristsO *oes deterrence have any meaning in influencing the nuclear am%itions of a terroristgrou$O f, as President 'ruman suggested, the %om% is "ust another wea$on, and its use is deemed to %e the %est means of achieving victory, then

however un$alata%le as it may sound, we must %e $re$ared for others to use the same reasoning against us. Al#Kaeda has offered a detailed argumentthat the use of nuclear wea$ons is "ustifia%le to win a war they declared with the /Pearl Har%or0 attac& on ;C::. 'hey have challenged the world to refutethem, on moral and ethical terms. 8ased on their statements, the al#Kaeda core is ho$ing they will not %e "oined on this field of %attle, %ecause they areconvinced their enemies are reluctant to defend their moral $osition. /'here has always %een a sensitivity that we do no want to do or say anything that will allow our efforts to %e mischaracteri>ed credi%ly as a war against slamZ. Peo$le in the administration should %e ma&ing a clear distinction %etweenslam, which is a religion and which is not our enemy, and e=tremist slam, which is a $olitical ideology and our enemyZ'he fact is our enemies fly the %anner of slam. 'hey claim to re$resent the religion. 'here are other $eo$le who say they don7t. What we need is to %e clear a%out thisT our enemy hasan e=tremist $olitical ideology. 'hey descri%e the ideology as the true religion. And there is no way we can deal with this $henomenon without

confronting the fact that the enemy $olitical ideology is rooted in religion.0 # *ouglas Feith. Assum$tions concerning the intent to use wea$ons of mass destruction are often %ased on su$erficial im$ressions of terrorists and their cause. 'here is a

$o$ular notion that terrorists en"oy &illing for &illing7s sa&e, that they are %loodthirsty and hateful. While at some level this may %e true,ma&ing such assum$tions tends to hy$e the threat and distort a more relia%le, unemotional analysis of the$ro%lem. 'o %e sure, nothing is scarier than the image of a mad terrorist wielding a nu&e, ready to %low himself u$ in the name of God. Such animage, however, is a fictional em%odiment of the threat. A dis$assionate distinction must %e drawn %etween the theological, ideological and secularmotivations of terrorists to use W3*, and their relationshi$ to mainstream religious views and e=$ressions. At the outset of such an underta&ing, the

e=treme inter$retation of slam must %e recogni>ed as %eing at shar$ variance from %roadly acce$ted tenets of the 3uslim faith. As slamic religiousscholar Jusuf Karadawi noted, eMuating slam with terrorism is analogous to descri%ing the 5&lahoma !ity %om%ing as %eing the handiwor& of!hristianity. 8om%er 'imothy 3ceigh7s motivation to &ill hundreds of $eo$le in the name of God should not %e identified with !hristianity, as areligion, any more than al#Kaeda7s ;C:: attac& should %e attri%uted to slam. :R Falling $rey to stereoty$es a%out religion also triviali>es militant slam7sfrightening sense of $ur$ose, which might re$resent the most $rofound danger it $oses to the world. For militant slamists, the $ro%lem is defined %yreligion, the conflict flows from religion, and the solution is derived from religion. n their view, the root of the $ro%lem is essentially man&ind7salienation from God, the need to %e reconciled with God, and slam7s role in %ringing man&ind %ac& to God7s good graces. According to this religious# %ased analysis of history, the $ervasive influence of secularity6 the se$aration of church and state6has shrouded the world in moral and ethicaldar&ness. 'he /$eo$le of the %oo&0 -ews and !hristians4 have re$laced God with mammon. !hristianity has committed the unforgiva%le sin of$olytheism %y elevating esus !hrist to the status of God -through the doctrine of 'rinity4. slam itself must %e revitali>edT so#called /a$ostate0 -secular43uslim states have failed to $ro$erly im$lement slamic law and tradition, de$riving $eo$le of the freedom to $ractice the faith as God would have them$ractice it. 'he resulting $lan of action gives rise to a li%eration ideology, of sorts. ndividual 3uslims must return to the original teachings of the Kuran.3uslim lands must %e restored from foreign domination. A$ostate states must %e re$laced %y im$lementing slamic law and tradition. Finally, $eo$le

must %e li%erated in all corners of the earth so they are free to em%race slam. A vanguard of true %elievers, instructed in a dee$erunderstanding of the $ro%lem, its causes, and solution, must lead the call to action. ronically, li&e their arch

enemy, atheist communism, militant e=tremists recogni>e that many $eo$le may not $erceive what is in their %est interests until they are suita%ly enlightened. 'he ideology of militant slamists is e=treme, %ut it is notirrationalT it is a well#reasoned, well#develo$ed weltanschauung, or world view/ Thus% the rational actormo&el can be applie& to militant Islamists% who possess an internall" consistent belief s"stem.

The motivation to possess an& use #:D flows lo'icall" from an eBtreme% but ver" rational setof concrete 'oals that are base& on a certain interpretation of histor" an& reli'ion . 'he %asic factors

affecting a terrorist grou$7s ris&#gain assessment for using a nuclear wea$on can %e arrayed in a chart consisting of five %road levels of interest,

motivation and "ustification for W3*. n a$$lying this hierarchy of motivations to a grou$ li&e al#Kaeda, it should %e noted that terrorists have&rawn a &istinction between possession an& use% at least theoreticall" . n :;;2, for instance, 5sama %in +aden

said it was his slamic duty to $ossess W3* as a means of deterrence. t has %een assumed that if he wants such wea$ons, it is touse themT he has never e=$licitly stated that he will use themT such is assumed. Grou$s with a glo%al a$erturehave a $ronounced tendency to underta&e a deli%erate decision#ma&ing $rocess to set $recedent setting events

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/uploads/Islam_and_the_Bomb-Final-pt1.pdf






in motion, and as a result, they carefully study the conseMuences that their actions are li&ely to have on the world.

)on-state actors &ont increase miscalc – follow strict &eterrence theor" :owatt-arssen (( -anuary @::, )olf, senior fellow at Harvard7s 8elfer !enter, slam and the 8om%( )eligious ustification For and Againstuclear Wea$ons,0 htt$(CC%elfercenter.&sg.harvard.eduCfilesCu$loadsCslamDandDtheD8om%#Final#$t:.$df 4

'he Kuran may also instruct 3uslims to develo$ a deterrent to war, %y amassing the strength in num%ersandCor arms to have such an effect on their enemies( / Against them ma&e ready your strength to the utmost of your $ower, includingsteeds of war, to stri&e terror into -the hearts of4 the enemies, of Allah and your enemies, and others %esides, whom ye may not &now, %ut whom Allah

doth &now. Whatever ye shall s$end in the cause of Allah, shall %e re$aid unto you, and ye shall not %e treated un"ustly.0 -2(@4 f one were to su%scri%eto the hadith mentioned a%ove and the words of A%u 8a&r, one woul& fin& it har& to make a case to use a weapon of

war that causes 'eneral &estruction% whereb" the killin' of women% chil&ren% the el&erl"% even believers% woul& be inevitable/ 'he sayings and deeds as transmitted through early re$orts have %een reinter$reted over and over forcenturies to the $oint where al#Kaeda is now claiming that religious considerations trum$ the idea of collateral damageT unintentional harm allows forthe &illing of all those mentioned a%oveT and there is considera%le leeway and discretion under$inning the idea of military necessity. n this conte=t al#Kaeda inter$rets the story of the Pro$het using a cata$ult against the village of 'a7if6which, %y design, is inca$a%le of distinguishing the guilty from theinnocent. 'his story has %een reiterated %y scholar after scholar and in fatwa after fatwa, including %oth Saudi radical cleric asir al#Fahd and Ayman

_awahiri, and it seems to %e one of the only e=am$les they cite when "ustifying such general destruction. 'hus, slamist militants considerretaliation, and li&e#for#li&e, as %eing %oth %roadly acce$ta%le and encouraged under the Kuran, but onl" in astrictl" =&efensive manner.0 'he argument %oils down, then, to a definition of what constitutes /defensive0 action. The Juranhas a clear in.unction a'ainst takin' offensive actionT one can, and $erha$s should, only $unish them the way in which

they have $unished you. 'his im$lies that W3* sim$ly cannot %e used as a first#stri&e engagement, %ut it can$otentially %e used in retaliation for use in &ind. 'his seeming allowance for W3*, however, %egins to %lur in the light of the Kuran7sclear in"unctions against &illing the aged, women and childrenT how can one retaliate with a wea$on that will inevita%ly cause such damageO Kuestionsover what sort of guidance trum$s another form of guidance will inevita%ly s$ar& discussion. Jou cannot %e for %oth rules given their contradiction,

es$ecially in the conte=t of W3*. t is clear where al#Kaeda stands on the rule they have chosen, %ut it7s hard to find aKuranic "ustification for using W3* as a first#stri&e wea$on, even %efore one decides whether or notnoncom%atant immunity a$$lies. 'here has also %een some discussion on 2(@ and its inter$retation as one that characteri>es the notion of

deterrence. f this is the case% possession of #:D &oes not e+ual use, though it may certainly %e allowed to$ossess. 'hat %eing said, even if one does $ossess such wea$ons, one can only seem to use them in retaliation if they

were attached with the same wea$on. 'his, however, is a fragment of a much larger discussion on which considerations trum$ others in the

conte=t of war. Also, the statement %y A%u 8a&r to his 3uslim armies %efore invading Syria, ma&es clear note that it is not $ermissi%le to %urn trees,destroy agriculture, and in another translation -$erha$s a longer one4 not even harm animals of any &ind6this can certainly %e a$$lied to the W3*conte=t, for such a wea$on is %ound to cause e=actly this &ind of damage, in addition to &illing noncom%atants.

)uclear miscalculation theor" false – &efensive realism posits proportionalit" assessmentcomes firstClifton (( -anuary @::, ose$h 9., +ead nformation 'echnology Assistant at !laremont 3c9enna !ollege, /*is$uted 'heory and Security Policy()es$onding to the I)ise of !hina,0 htt$(CCscholarshi$.claremont.eduCcgiCviewcontent.cgiOarticle::<Qconte=tcmcDthesesQsei#redir:1searchNmiscalculationN@nuclearN@warN@rationalN@actorsN4

'he controversy over offense#defense %alance is e=tensive and highly technical, including additional criticisms of the a%ility

to calculate the %alance, the degree to which the %alance changes over time, and how relevant the %alance is to e=$laining the %ehavior of states. 2R While

the entirety of the de%ate is %eyond the sco$e of this $a$er, it is worth noting that !harles Glaser offers a $owerful defensive realistcritiMue of 3earsheimer7s $osition on the de%ate. Glaser argues that distinguishing %etween the offensive anddefensive ca$a%ilities of any $articular wea$on or tactic is not im$ortant, es$ecially %ecause the offense#defense %alance of any wea$on or tactic can vary de$ending on other conte=tual factors. nstead, all that isre+uire& is that one be able to assess the probabilit" of success in an offensive mission an& theprobabilit" of success in a &efensive mission a'ainst an attackin' opponent . While such an assessment

could %e com$licated, militar" strate'ists &o this all the time when they ma&e military net assessments. 2 Ac&nowledging the $ossi%ility that offensive ca$a%ilities will %e inferior to defensive ca$a%ilities is cause for greater o$timism in the case of future Sino#

American relations. 'he offense#defense varia%le could result in little a%ility for either side to $ose a threat to theother, ensuring security and reducing the need for com$etition. Even though the $ossi%ility of a future change in the offense#

defense varia%le could lead to a greater li&elihood of conflict, 2? %oth sides can $ursue strategies that focus on defensiveca$a%ilities and increase trans$arency to reduce the ris& of miscalculation. Ultimately, eMuating $ower and security ignores

too much. !onsiderations of the offense#defense %alance -%oth in terms of wea$ons and geogra$hic constraints4 are necessary for good

analysis. 'hey allow for more detailed e=$lanation %y accounting for relevant factors that the most %are%ones ofstructural realisms -Walt>7s and 3earsheimer7s4 re"ect, and they can allow for more correct analysis %y ta&ingthese relevant factors into consideration. 'his has an enormous im$act on $olicy %ecause it empowerspolic"makers to use their knowle&'e to pursue policies that result in less intense competition. n

the end, these $olicies $ossi%ly avoid the /tragic0 outcomes of offensive realism.


http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1164&context=cmc_theses&sei-redir=1#search=%22miscalculation%20nuclear%20war%20rational%20actors%22







6e'emon"

6e' &oesnt solve war

!hristo$her <reble -director of foreign $olicy studies at the !ato nstitute4 August 3( /U.S. 3ilitaryPower( Preeminence for What Pur$oseO0 htt$(CCwww.cato#at#li%erty.orgCu#s#military#$ower#$reeminence#for#

what#$ur$oseC3ost in Washington still em%races the notion that America is, and forever will %e, the world7s indis$ensa%lenation. Some scholars, however, Muestioned the logic of hegemonic sta%ility theory from the very %eginning. A

num%er continue to do so today. 'hey advance arguments diametrically at odds with the $rimacist consensus.'rade routes need not %e $oliced %y a single dominant $owerT the international economy is com$le= andresilient. Su$$ly disru$tions are li&ely to %e tem$orary, and the costs of mitigating their effects should %e %orne

%y those who stand to lose 6 or gain 6 the most. slamic e=tremists are scary, %ut hardly com$ara%le to thethreat $osed %y a glo%e#straddling Soviet Union armed with thousands of nuclear wea$ons. t is fran&ly a%surdthat we s$end more today to fight 5sama %in +aden and his tiny %and of murderous thugs than we s$ent toface down ose$h Stalin and !hairman 3ao. 3any factors have contri%uted to the dramatic decline in thenum%er of wars %etween nation#statesT it is unrealistic to e=$ect that a new s$asm of glo%al conflict woulderu$t if the United States were to modestly refocus its efforts, draw down its military $ower, and call on othercountries to $lay a larger role in their own defense, and in the security of their res$ective regions. 8ut whilethere are credi%le alternatives to the United States serving in its current dual role as world $oliceman C armedsocial wor&er, the foreign $olicy esta%lishment in Washington has no interest in e=$loring them. 'he $eo$lehere have grown accustomed to living at the center of the earth, and indeed, of the universe. 'he tangi%le

%enefits of all this military s$ending flow dis$ro$ortionately to this tiny corner of the United States while theschlu%s in fly#over country $ic& u$ the ta%.

6e'emon" failsKobstacles to inclusionar" policies/:cInt"re ((6Professor at *e$aul University, s$eciali>ing in !ritical ) 'heory, Social 3ovements,nternational Political Economy -3ichael, /When Hegemony Fails( 8ritish m$erialism in ndia and 8ra>il from the ineteenth to the Early'wentieth !enturies0, Western Political Science Association, A$ril :, @::,htt$(CCde$aul.academia.eduC3ichael3cntyreCPa$ersCRR<<@CWhenDHegemonyDFails4CCAW

Even when the ruling alliances of colonial ndia or the 8ra>il of Em$ire and 5ld )e$u%lic were not threatened with dissolution, their IsuccessI

was %ased on the e=clusion of the vast ma"ority of the $o$ulations of ndia and 8ra>il, not only from the $act ofdomination or a share in $olitical $ower, %ut from the life of civil society. 'hat e=clusion was enforced through everyday

%rutality, while their eru$tions into the $olitical s$here, e$isodic and freMuently diagnosed as criminal, were $utdown with a %rutality that freMuently crossed into %lood lust. 8ra>il, always at $ains -with little success4 to $resent itself to the

world as a Euro$ean civili>ation in the tro$ics, could maintain its $retense only %y rigidly e=cluding dar&#s&inned lowerclasses from $olitical $artici$ation. n ndia, where some mem%ers of the .!.S. $ressed for a dee$ening of the $act of domination to include

an ideali>ed sturdy yeoman $easantry alongside the large landowners who had $reviously formed their core 2grou$ of allies, the reforms in$ro$erty law needed to carry out such a $ro"ect were enacted in wea&ened form after delays of decades, withsu%stantial geogra$hical divergence and uneven enforcement. n the end, it was Gandhi, not the 8ritish, who

was a%le to incor$orate relatively well#off $easants into a $owerful $olitical alliance. 'he Idangerous classesI atthe %ottom of the social hierarchy faced routine criminal sanction, in ndia through the designation of certaingrou$s as Icriminal tri%es,I su%"ect to grou$ sanction, in 8ra>il through vagrancy statutes and the

criminali>ation of certain as$ects of Afro#8ra>ilian life. The primar" effect of the failure of culturalhe'emon"% then% is not that it &estabili$es political re'imes but that it creates substantialobstacles to the creation of inclusionar" polities/ Su%ordinate grou$s therefore have little incentive to$ress for incor$oration into the e=isting alliance. ot only would a call for incor$oration %e re%uffed, there areno channels for such an a$$eal to %e made. 'he e=cluded are therefore left with a $olitics of resistance, a$olitics often read as criminality %y the dominant. 'his misreading of the $olitics of the dominated is not asim$le misreading. !riminal activity, however restrictively defined, is one res$onse to su%ordination. t is normally a res$onse with limited aims(slaves &ill a harsh overseer, villagers riot to call attention to a corru$t local official, a $oor vagrant steals to survive, a small landowner turns to %anditry when forced off his land %y a larger landowner. 'here is no reason to thin& of such activity as other than criminal, so long as we remem%er that it is

criminality with a distinctly limited $olitical $ur$ose. n the a%sence of channels for demands of inclusion, $olitical activity with %roader aims tends to ta&e the form of $u%lic and communal resistance( a $ro$hetic community gathers in the

8ra>ilian sertão -!unha 2? :;<<4, the Santals of eastern ndia rise u$ to e=$el IoutsidersI (diku), %oth 8ritish and Hindu -Guha :;2, ??#24. Such



criminalityCresistance is recurrent and endemic, %ut also locali>ed and evanescent. egation and reversalrather than $rogrammatic reform are its common idiom .; ts categories of friend and foe are im$rovised, fluid,and changing, though some common features can %e found in %oth conte=ts. t is a self# limiting form ofresistance, %oth %ecause the range of loyalties it can mo%ili>e is geogra$hically restricted and %ecause itsattention to signs at the e=$ense of strategy. *es$ite this stringently e=clusionary $olity, however, in the e$och when the ruling alliancesof 8ra>il and ndia were %eginning to come a$art, wor&ers in the most heavily industriali>ed cities in %oth countries managed to gouge out a s$ace for$u%lic contestation that they never gave %ac&.

6e'emon" failsKrecent political climate proves/6achi'an (6Senior Fellow at American Progress, Senior $olitical scientist at )A* !or$oration,*irector of the )A* !enter for Asia Pacific Policy, nternational affairs fellowshi$ from the !ouncil onForeign )elations, ational Security !ouncil at the White House-ina, /'he False Promise of Primacy in US Foreign Policy0, World Focus, anuary , @:@,htt$(CCworldfocus.orgC%logC@:@C@:CCthe#false#$romise#of#$rimacy#in#us#foreign#$olicyC;?C4CCAW

5ne unMuestiona%le success of the 5%ama administration so far has %een to turn the $age on the failed 8ush foreign $olicy framewor&. ot so, says)o%ert 9agan, who reveals a $erverse nostalgia for the $revious $aradigm in his recent writings in which he argues that the 5%ama administration is

formulating foreign $olicy from a $ers$ective that acce$ts, rather than fights, the decline of American $ower. 'o understand this yearning for American $olicy of yore, you have to remem%er that American foreign $olicy leaders during the 8ushadministration clung to the false $romise of $rimacy, the %elief that the lynch$in of American security was forit to remain more $owerful than all other countries %y a huge, fi=ed margin. 3ona Sut$hen and descri%ed why this was a

misguided strategy in our @@2 %oo&, 'he e=t American !entury( How the U.S. !an 'hrive As 5ther Powers )ise. 8ut the $roof is in the$udding. n the end, the $rimacy strategy didn7t deliver. Primacy tem$ted our leaders into a rec&less war inraM. t did not $revent orth 9orea from acMuiring nuclear wea$ons. t did nothing to slow !hina7s influence,as was its im$licit goal. And it wrec&ed, with 3oscow7s hel$, our relationshi$ with )ussia. A fi=ation on$rimacy $arado=ically managed to undermine the influence and authority America did have. evertheless, the factthat the 8ush administration em%raced the notion of $rimacy was a comfort to the remaining !old Warriors. President 8arac& 5%ama7s a$$roach is

different, to say the least. His $olitical allies and his detractors can agree that 5%ama sees foreign $olicy not in termsof asserting America7s un$aralleled might, %ut of see&ing common cause, including with other ma"or $owers.5n the one#year mar& of his $residency, the contours of the new $aradigm are fairly clear( +ead the world inaddressing shared challenges 'reat other governments and $eo$les 6 friends and foes 6 with res$ect Forgestrategic colla%orations with %ig, $ivotal $owers and demand res$onsi%ility from them on glo%al challenges)einvigorate and re$air e=isting alliances )eengage with international institutions and rules, $ushing forincreased accounta%ility 3a&e %asic $olitical and economic rights availa%le to more $eo$le, &nowing thatdemocratic government is the %est way to achieve this goal As for $rimacy, 5%ama dismissed that as a strategy

goal in his inaugural address when he o%served, /5ur $ower alone cannot $rotect us.0 +ater, in 3oscow,5%ama ela%orated on his view of great $ower relations, saying, /a great $ower does not show strength %ydominating or demoni>ing other countriesZGXiven our interde$endence, any world order that tries to elevateone nation or grou$ of $eo$le over another will inevita%ly fail. 'he $ursuit of $ower is no longer a >ero#sumgame 6 $rogress must %e shared.0

6e'emon" failsKcooperation is ke" to prevent terrorism% 'lobal warmin'% economic crises%nuclear proliferation% an& pan&emics/6achi'an (6Senior Fellow at American Progress, Senior $olitical scientist at )A* !or$oration,*irector of the )A* !enter for Asia Pacific Policy, nternational affairs fellowshi$ from the !ouncil onForeign )elations, ational Security !ouncil at the White House-ina, /'he False Promise of Primacy in US Foreign Policy0, World Focus, anuary , @:@,

htt$(CCworldfocus.orgC%logC@:@C@:CCthe#false#$romise#of#$rimacy#in#us#foreign#$olicyC;?C4CCAW

)o%ert 9agan now accuses President 5%ama of reorienting American foreign $olicy away from its WW and !old War roots, focusing on how /toad"ust0 to the decline in American $rimacy instead of trying to reverse it. He $ortrays administration officials as nave ideologues, %uttering u$

autocracies and forsa&ing our democratic allies. 9agan7s analyses fail to discuss two ma"or develo$ments that demand a newa$$roach6the increased $otency of transnational threats and the new salience of domestic $olicy in America7s

world standing. 9agan writes as if the 5%ama administration is engaging with re#emerging $owers to $rove anideological $oint that great $ower strife is a relic of history. Jet no staffer that have ever s$o&en with wouldsuggest that these relationshi$s are %eyond rivalry. 3ore im$ortantly, 9agan does not reveal the 5%amaadministration7s reasons for $ursuing strategic colla%orations with !hina, )ussia, ndia, and other $ivotal$owers. n fact, these partnerships are necessar" to protect Americans from common threats interrorists% 'lobal warmin'% economic crises% nuclear proliferation% an& pan&emics such as swine



flu 6 the forces of disorder that can and do affect Americans right here at home. 9agan %arely mentions thesethreats, %ut to &ee$ its own $eo$le safe, America needs )ussia to secure its loose nuclear materials so terroristscant get it. America needs !hina 6 the world7s largest emitter 6 to cut down on its car%on. And America needsndia to hel$ trac& e=tremists. 3oreover, America needs all of them to contain $andemics. How can we getthese %ig, $roud countries to ta&e these ste$sO Aggressive di$lomacy. 'ransnational threats also e=$lain why the 5%amaadministration is ta&ing international institutions seriously. t7s not %ecause the $resident is loo&ing to attend more international meetingsT it7s %ecause

international rules and institutions $lay a vital coordinating role when threats cross %orders. 'he World Health5rgani>ation led the %attle against swine flu last year "ust as the nternational 3onetary Fund %ailed out a slew of countries headed toward financialruin. Fortunately, international architecture and traditional alliances are not mutually e=clusive, as 9agan would im$ly. t7s still early days, %ut the5%ama a$$roach is $aying dividends. !hina has agreed to limit its car%on intensity. And, for the first time last year, !hina not only voted for tough U..

sanctions against PyongyangT it also enforced them, in contrast to 9agan7s assertion that the administration has failed to gain /any meaningful !hinesehel$ in orth 9orea.0 )ussia has allowed the United States to trans$ort su$$lies through its territory into Afghanistan. 'he Glo%al nitiative to !om%atuclear 'errorism, co#chaired %y the United States and )ussia, is u$ and running again. A successor to the S'A)' treaty to reduce our arsenal of nuclear wea$ons is not yet com$lete, %ut it7s on the way. And these nations and others agreed during the dar&est days of the financial crisis to coordinate theirmacroeconomic moves. ran remains a challenge, %ut 8ei"ing and 3oscow did recently "oin in a harsh re%u&e that the nternational Atomic Energy

Agency issued. 5f course, we continue to have differences with these $ivotal $owers, including on human rights anddemocracy. 9agan is sim$ly wrong to suggest that administration officials have failed to /continue to $ress)ussia and !hina for reform.0 'hey have, "ust not in a grandstanding, $rovocative way that ends u$ %eingcounter$roductive. Here, for e=am$le, is what President 5%ama said in 3oscow( 'he arc of history shows usthat governments which serve their own $eo$le survive and thriveT governments which serve only their own$ower do not. Governments that re$resent the will of their $eo$le are far less li&ely to descend into failedstates, to terrori>e their citi>ens, or to wage war on others. Governments that $romote the rule of law, su%"ecttheir actions to oversight, and allow for inde$endent institutions are more de$enda%le trading $artners. And inour own history, democracies have %een America7s most enduring allies, including those we once waged war

with in Euro$e and AsiaB nations that today live with great security and $ros$erity .

6e'emon" failsKresistance/everette an& everette (6[Senior fellow at the ew America Foundation in Washington, *.!., Professorat the Pennsylvania State University School of nternational Affairs [[!E5 of Strategic Energy and Glo%al

Analysis -S')A'EGA4 and Senior +ecturer and Senior )esearch Fellow at Jale University7s ac&son nstitutefor Glo%al Affairs-Flynt and Hillary, /US Kuest for Glo%al Hegemony0, What 5thers 'hin&, ran )eview, *ecem%er , @:@,htt$(CCwww.iranreview.orgCcontentC*ocumentsCUSDKuestDforDGlo%alDHegemony.htm4CCAW

'he results, however, have %een disastrous. 'he United States has %een at war for a startling two out of everythree years since :;2;, and there is no end in sight. As anyone with a rudimentary &nowledge of world events

&nows, countries that continuously fight wars invaria%ly %uild $owerful national#security %ureaucracies thatundermine civil li%erties and ma&e it difficult to hold leaders accounta%le for their %ehavior, and theyinvaria%ly end u$ ado$ting ruthless $olicies normally associated with %rutal dictators. 'he Founding Fathersunderstood this $ro%lem, as it clear from ames 3adison7s o%servation that ]no nation can $reserve its freedomin the midst of continual warfare.7 Washington7s $ursuit of $olicies li&e assassination, rendition and tortureover the $ast decade, not to mention the wea&ening of the rule of law at home, shows that their fears were

"ustified. 'o ma&e matters worse, the United States is now engaged in $rotracted wars in Afghanistan and raMthat have so far cost well over a trillion dollars and resulted in around forty#seven thousand Americancasualties. 'he $ain and suffering inflicted on raM has %een enormous. Since the war %egan in 3arch @@,more than one hundred thousand raMi civilians have %een &illed, roughly million raMis have left the countryand :.? million more have %een internally dis$laced. 3oreover, the American military is not going to win eitherone of these conflicts, des$ite all the $hony tal& a%out how the /surge0 has wor&ed in raM and how a similar

strategy can $roduce another miracle in Afghanistan. We may well %e stuc& in %oth Muagmires for years tocome, in fruitless $ursuit of victory. 'he United States has also %een una%le to solve three other ma"or foreign#$olicy $ro%lems. Washington has wor&ed overtime6with no success6to shut down ran7s uranium#enrichmentca$a%ility for fear that it might lead to 'ehran acMuiring nuclear wea$ons. And the United States, una%le to$revent orth 9orea from acMuiring nuclear wea$ons in the first $lace, now seems inca$a%le of com$ellingPyongyang to give them u$. Finally, every $ostB!old War administration has tried and failed to settle thesraeli#Palestinian conflictT all indicators are that this $ro%lem will deteriorate further as the West 8an& andGa>a are incor$orated into a Greater srael. 'he un$leasant truth is that the United States is in a world oftrou%le today on the foreign#$olicy front, and this state of affairs is only li&ely to get worse in the ne=t few

years, as Afghanistan and raM unravel and the %lame game escalates to $oisonous levels.0 ohn is eMually clear when it comes to diagnosing the source of America7s /world of trou%le0 on the foreign#$olicy front( /'he rootcause of America7s trou%les is that it ado$ted a flawed grand strategy after the !old War. ;rom the Clinton

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_America_Foundation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_State_University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_America_Foundation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_State_University



a&ministration on% the Unite& States re.ecte& Lvarious strate'ic alternativesM% instea& pursuin''lobal &ominance% or what mi'ht alternativel" be calle& 'lobal he'emon"% which was not .ust&oome& to fail% but likel" to backfire in &an'erous wa"s if it relie& too heavil" on militar" forceto achieve its ambitious a'en&a/ Glo%al dominance has two %road o%"ectives( maintaining American$rimacy, which means ma&ing sure that the United States remains the most $owerful state in the internationalsystemT and s$reading democracy across the glo%e, in effect, ma&ing the world over in America7s image. 'heunderlying %elief is that new li%eral democracies will %e $eacefully inclined and $ro#American, so the more the

%etter. 5f course, this means that Washington must care a lot a%out every country7s $olitics. With glo%aldominance, no serious attem$t is made to $rioriti>e U.S. interests, %ecause they are virtually limitless. 'his

grand strategy is ]im$erial7 at its coreT its $ro$onents %elieve that the United States has the right as well as theres$onsi%ility to interfere in the $olitics of other countries. 5ne would thin& that such arrogance might alienateother states, %ut most American $olicy ma&ers of the early nineties and %eyond were confident that would notha$$en, instead %elieving that other countries6save for so#called rogue states li&e ran and orth 9orea6

would see the United States as a %enign hegemon serving their own interests.0 ohn reminds those of us who voted for George W. 8ush over Al Gore in @@@ that, on foreign $olicy issues, 8ush largely ran against the &indof li%eral im$erialism that Gore advocated and that the administration he served as ice#President had$racticed. 8ut, of course, after ;C::, 8ush too& the Muest for glo%al dominance to new heights, es$ecially in the3iddle East( /8y $ursuing this e=traordinary scheme to transform an entire region at the $oint of a gun,President 8ush ado$ted a radical grand strategy that has no $arallel in American history. t was also a dismalfailure. 'he 8ush administration7s Muest for glo%al dominance was %ased on a $rofound misunderstanding ofthe threat environment facing the United States after ;C::. And the $resident and his advisers overestimated

what military force could achieve in the modern world, in turn greatly underestimating how difficult it would %e to s$read democracy in the 3iddle East. 'his triumvirate of errors doomed Washington7s effort to dominatethe glo%e, undermined American values and institutions on the home front, and threatened its $osition in the

world.0 n this vein, ohn $oints out that /the 8ush administration7s fondness for threatening to attac&adversaries -oftentimes with the additional agenda of forced democrati>ation4 encouraged nuclear$roliferation. 'he %est way for the United States to ma=imi>e the $ros$ects of halting or at least slowing downthe s$read of nuclear wea$ons would %e to sto$ threatening other countries %ecause that gives them acom$elling reason to acMuire the ultimate deterrent. 8ut as long as America7s leaders remain committed toglo%al dominance, they are li&ely to resist this advice and &ee$ threatening states that will not follow

Washington7s orders.0 ohn warns that the 5%ama Administration, for all its tal& of /change0, has largelyem%raced the same delusions of glo%al dominance that got the United States into such trou%le on the foreign#$olicy front under the !linton and George W. 8ush administrations. 'he alternative, as ohn $oints out, is not

/Fortress America0 isolationism. t is a $osture he descri%es as /offshore %alancing06which is actually theUnited States7 traditional a$$roach to grand strategy, %efore it develo$ed hegemonic hu%ris. America still hasnot faced u$ to its most fundamental strategic choices in a $ost#!old War world. ohn 3earsheimer has givenit an indis$ensa%le guide for thin&ing through those choices.



4conomic Collapse

)o impact to economic collapse – empirics

Gordon 08 - historian s$eciali>ing in %usiness and financial history, full#time writer for the last nineteen years,Gordons articles have %een $u%lished in, among others, For%es, For%es FJ, Worth, 'he ew Jor& 'imes 8oo&)eview, 'he ew Jor& 'imess and 'he Wall Street ournals 5$#Ed $ages, and 'he Washington Posts 8oo&

World and 5utloo& Panics and Politics

(John, 10/22/08, ournal of the American enter$rise institute, Panics and Politics htt$(CCwww.american.comCarchiveC@@2Cocto%er#:@#@2C$anics#and#$olitics4

Will the current financial crisis s$ur a ma"or $olitical realignmentO f history is any guide, the answer is $ro%a%ly no. America has e=$eriencedrecurrent financial meltdowns since its %irth in the late :2th century. ndeed, there were severe credit crunches and WallStreet colla$ses in :?;, :2:;, :2?, :2R?, :2?, :2;, :;@?, :;;, :;2?, and now @@2. 3ost of these $anics have not %eenfollowed %y seismic $olitical shifts. 'o %e sure, President 3artin an 8uren, who too& office a month %efore the stoc& mar&et crash of :2?,lost %adly when he ran for reelection in the de$ression year of :2<@. 8ut an 8uren was an un$o$ular and ineffective $resident, and his defeat did notsignal a realignment.

4conomic &ecline en&s rivalries% resources are reallocate&,ennett an& )or&strom 3 B de$artment of $olitical science at Penn State -* Scott and 'imothy, 'he ournal of !onflict )esolution, <<(:, /Foreign $olicy su%stituta%ility and internal economic $ro%lems in enduring rivalries0,ProKuest, WEA4!onflict settlement is also a distinct route to dealing with internal $ro%lems that leaders in rivalries may $ursue when faced with internal $ro%lems.

3ilitary com$etition %etween states reMuires large amounts of resources, and rivals reMuire even more attention. +eaders maychoose to negotiate a settlement that ends a rivalry to free u$ im$ortant resources that may %e reallocated tothe domestic economy . n a Iguns versus %utterI world of economic trade#offs, when a state can no longer afford to $ay thee=$enses associated with com$etition in a rivalry, it is Muite rational for leaders to reduce costs %y ending a rivalry . 'hisgain -a $eace dividend4 could %e achieved at any time %y ending a rivalry. However, such a gain is li&ely to %e most im$ortant and attractive to leaders

when internal conditions are %ad and the leader is see&ing ways to alleviate active $ro%lems. Su$$ort for $olicy change away fromcontinued rivalry is more li&ely to develo$ when the economic situation sours and elites and masses are loo&ingfor ways to im$rove a worsening situation. t is at these times that the $ressure to cut military investment will %e greatest and that state

leaders will %e forced to recogni>e the difficulty of continuing to $ay for a rivalry. Among other things, this argument also encom$asses the view that the cold war ended %ecause the Union of Soviet Socialist )e$u%lics could no longer com$eteeconomically with the United States.

4conomic Collapse &oesnt lea& to war – onl" hurts internal 'rowth% 38 proves

<4# ( -Summari>ing the PEWs re$ort of the @@2 economic colla$se %y Philli$ Swagel, <C2C:@, 'hem$act of the Se$tem%er @@2 Economic !olla$se, htt$(CCwww.$ewtrusts.orgCourDwor&Dre$ortDdetail.as$=OidR2;R4SU33A)J U.S. households lost on average nearly R,2@@ in income due to reduced economic growth during the acute stage othe financial crisis from Se$tem%er @@2 through the end of @@;.:X !osts to the federal government due to its interventions to mitigate the financial

crisis amounted to ,@R@, on average, for each U.S. household. Also, the com%ined $ea& loss from declining stoc& and home values totaled nearly :@@,@@@, on average $er U.S. household, during the uly @@2 to 3arch @@; $eriod. 'his analysis highlights theim$ortance of reducing the onset and severity of future financial crises , and the value of mar&et reforms to achieve this goal.

9EJ F*GS ncome B 'he financial crisis cost the U.S. an estimated <2 %illion due to slower economic growth, asmeasured %y the difference %etween the !ongressional 8udget 5ffice -!854 economic forecast made in Se$tem%er @@2 and the actual $erformance ofthe economy from Se$tem%er @@2 through the end of @@;. 'hat eMuates to an average of a$$ro=imately R,2@@ in lost income for each U.S.

household. Government )es$onse B Federal government s$ending to mitigate the financial crisis through the

'rou%led Asset )elief Program -'A)P4 will result in a net cost to ta=$ayers of ? %illion according to the !85. 'his is

a$$ro=imately ,@R@ $er U.S. household on average. Home alues B 'he U.S. lost .< trillion in real estate wealth from uly@@2 to 3arch @@; according to the Federal )eserve. 'his is roughly @,@@ $er U.S. household. Further, R@@,@@@ additional

foreclosures %egan during the acute $hase of the financial crisis than were e=$ected, %ased on the Se$tem%er @@2 !85 forecast. Stoc& alues B

'he U.S. lost ?.< trillion in stoc& wealth from uly @@2 to 3arch @@;, according to the Federal )eserve. 'his is roughly ,@@ on

average $er U.S. household. o%s B R.R million more American "o%s were lost due to slower economic growth during the financial crisisthan what was $redicted %y the Se$tem%er @@2 !85 forecast.

4conomic collapse &oesnt lea& to war – empirics proveFerguson @@, # 3A, PH*, the +aurence A. 'isch Professor of History at Harvard University, resident facultymem%er of the 3inda de Gun>%urg !enter for Euro$ean Studies, Senior )eseach Fellow of esus !ollege,5=ford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover nstitution, Stanford University-iall, Foreign Affairs, Se$tC5ct4

http://www.american.com/archive/2008/october-10-08/panics-and-politics






or can economic crises e=$lain the %loodshed. What may %e the most familiar causal chain in modern historiogra$hy lin&s the Great *e$ression to the

rise of fascism and the out%rea& of World War . 8ut that sim$le story leaves too much out. a>i Germany started the war in Euro$eonly after its economy had recovered. ot all the countries affected %y the Great *e$ression were ta&en over %yfascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression. n fact, no general relationshi$ %etween economics andconflict is discerni%le for the century as a whole. Some wars came after $eriods of growth, others were thecauses rather than the conseMuences of economic catastro$he, and some severe economic crises were notfollowed %y wars.



Democrac" Current-&a" &emocrac" tactics will never workKthe" onl" lea& to true &emocrac" &ownfall/;arrell" (6Winner of the !!A nternational !ritics Award, the Pascall Pri>e for !ritical Writing, and the3arion 3ahony Griffin AwardT columnist for the Sydney Morning Herald, a commentator on Australiantelevision and radio, and Ad"unct Associate Professor of Architecture at the University of Sydney -Eli>a%eth, /*emocracy # seeds of dou%t or seeds that will s$rout strongO0, ews and Features, Sydney3orning Herald, 5cto%er ?, @:@, +e=ise=is4CCAW

*emocracy was %orn with the seeds of its destruction in its mouth and, right now, were seeing them s$rout.ot so dangerous really. ohn Adams said it two centuries ago( I *emocracy never lasts long. t soon wastes,e=hausts and murders itself. 'here never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.I 3ay%e this iso%vious. *emocracy, as the $olitics of desire, has $roved less ade$t at eradicating monarchy than at ma&ing fatlittle sovereigns of us all, $leasure#see&ing, $ain#intolerant. 5ur leaders are our creaturesT what we wontacce$t, they darent im$ose. 'hus, the Prime 3inister, ulia Gillard, cannot so much as mouth the wordsIcar%on ta=I. 5ur hedonism demands her cowardice. And it is this hedonic addiction, this %ondage to small,salient desira%les such as %ig#screen tellies and 9uta holidays that has left democracy $araly>ed in the face ofthe ele$hant#si>e undesira%les such as climate change and the GF!. A century ago, America led the rising gra$hon this desire#democracy. ow it may %e leading the fall. -Although 8ra>il, its electoral circus com$rising si=foot%allers, four singers, two stand#u$ comics, a cele%rity transse=ual, a catwal& model and an allegedlyilliterate clown, might ta&e the ca&e here.4 'his wasnt always so. Early on, as democracy grew from the hus& ofaristocracy, it was still ca$a%le of im$osing the ta=es and statutes, the chec&s and %alances needed to constrain

desire for the greater good. And $erha$s, over time, we were always going to vote away such constraints, "ust as we voted away the constraints of theology in order to swim freely in the warm s$rings of li%eralism. 8ut now, asresentment %uilds at a free#mar&et oligarchy that not only allows itself to fail , and fail s$ectacularly, %ute=$ects us $le%s to $ic& u$ the ta%, a strange new cross#fertili>ation is a$$arent. ts a conservative $eo$le#$ower movement where $eo$le cherry#$ic& values from old#right and old#left to ma&e a new $olitical %lend. n8ritain I)ed 'oryI Philli$ 8lond has %ecome the $hiloso$her#&ing of this new synthesis, arguing that since:;<R Ili%eralism has undone %oth the left and the rightI %y ma&ing desire central. 'he $resum$tion of self#interested individualism, he says, as $ro$agated %y )ousseau and Adam Smith, necessitated the nanny#state in$lace of the $ersonal conscience. -8lond, one notes, has a %ac&ground in Anglican theology.4 For 8lond, then,Iindividualism and statism are two sides of the same coinI. Parado=ically, he says, the $resum$tion ofindividual eMuality has led to Ia $erverse cor$oratismI on %oth sides, in which the IeMuality of o$$ortunityIdoctrine has only entrenched and $er$etuated disadvantage until it seems almost genetic. 8lond has the ear of

the 8ritish Prime 3inister, *avid !ameron, and is credited with his I8ig SocietyI answer to %ig government.How that translates on the ground remains to %e seen. Some e=$ect little advance on notorious Iget on yer

%i&eI advice to the $oor from the 'hatcher#era minister orman 'e%%it, and 8lond fears that +a%ours Ed3ili%and -eMui$$ed with his own whis$ering $hiloso$her, I%lue +a%ourI academic 3aurice Glasman4 mightta&e this new middle ground first. 8ut at least theyre having the de%ate. At least its actually a%out ideas, andthe arguments are genuinely thoughtful in a way that suggests theres life in democracy yet. Here, where wereentertaining the same weirdly refreshing mi= of values, it seems almost accidental. Perha$s it was no accident.Perha$s, faced with choosing %etween our own circus of semi#literate clowns, and confronting the terri%le ironythat "ust when we get sufficiently fed#u$ with two#$arty $osturing to vote otherwise, the third $arty vanishes,

we did the only reasona%le thing. We elevated a ruffian gang of inde$endents who may not amount to much asindividuals %ut "ointly render the system more honest and o$era%le than it has %een for years. 'his is not aIhungI $arliament. 'hats the loaded terminology of a two#$arty orthodo=y. 'his $arliament # suddenly and

une=$ectedly freed from the mor%idities of the whi$ system # is a wor&ing $arliament. So $erha$s itsnot democracy eating itself. Perha$s what were seeing is democracy feeding itselfT $erha$s the seeds in its mouth were not those of destruction, %ut of renewalO Perha$s. 'his suggests well need to dro$ the %icameral system.)edesign our $arliaments to %e not o$$ositional shoe#%o=es %ut round, may%e, or sMuare, with cross#%enchesas long as the sides. Further, far from mandating the vote, restrict it, turning a duty into a $rivilege, earna%le %ydemonstrating some sem%lance of &nowledge. -m thin&ing a really challenging test, li&e naming the de$utyP3.4 'his way we might ho$e for a tric&le#u$ effect, where%y a smarter constituency eventually demands andgets smarter $oliticians. 8ut how long have we gotO

Democrac" failsKprecon&itions &ictate/Sowell ((6)ose and 3ilton Friedman Senior Fellow, 'he Hoover nstitution at Stanford University



-'homas, /nstant *emocracy *oesn7t Wor&0, Worldet*aily, 3arch :, @::,htt$(CCwww.wnd.comCinde=.$h$O$aged;:4AW

'he fact that Egy$tians or others in the 3iddle East and elsewhere want freedom does not mean that they areready for freedom. Everyone wants freedom for himself. Even the a>is wanted to %e free to %e a>is. 'hey "ustdidnt want any%ody else to %e free. 'here is very little sign of tolerance in the 3iddle East, even among fellow3uslims with different $olitical or religious views, and all too many signs of gross intolerance toward $eo$le

who are not 3uslims. Freedom and democracy cannot %e sim$ly conferred on anyone. 8oth have$reconditions, and even nations that are free and democratic today too& centuries to get there. f there were

ever a time when $eo$le in Western democracies might %e e=cused for thin&ing that Western institutions couldsim$ly %e e=$orted to other nations to create new free democracies, that time has long $assed/ t is easy toe=$ort the outward sym%ols of democracy B constitutions, elections, $arliaments and the li&e B %ut you cannote=$ort the centuries of e=$erience and develo$ment that made those institutions wor&. All too often, e=$orteddemocratic institutions have meant Ione man, one vote B one time.I We should not assume that our ownfreedom and democratic form of government can %e ta&en for granted. 'hose who created this country did not.

As the !onstitution of the United States was %eing written, a lady as&ed 8en"amin Fran&lin what he and theother writers were creating. He re$lied, IA re$u%lic, madam B if you can &ee$ it.I Generations later, A%raham+incoln also $osed it as a Muestion, whether Igovernment of the $eo$le, %y the $eo$le and for the $eo$leI is onethat Ican long endure.I ust as there are nations that have not yet develo$ed the $reconditions for freedom anddemocracy, so there are some $eo$le within a nation who have not. 'he advance toward universal suffrage too&$lace slowly and in stages. 'oo many $eo$le, loo&ing %ac& today, see that as "ust %eing %iased against some

$eo$le. 8ut $utting the fate of a nation in the hands of the illiterate masses of the $ast, many with noconce$tion of the com$le=ities of government, might have meant ris&ing the same fate of Ione man, one vote Bone time.I 'oday, we ta&e universal literacy for granted. 8ut literacy has not %een universal across all segmentsof the American $o$ulation during all of the @th century. lliteracy was the norm in Al%ania as recently as the:;@s and in ndia in the second half of the @th century. 8are literacy is "ust one of the things needed to ma&edemocracy via%le. Without a sense of res$onsi%le citi>enshi$, voters can elect leaders who are not merelyincom$etent or corru$t, %ut even leaders with contem$t for the constitutional limitations on government$ower that $reserve the $eo$les freedom.

Democrac" is bein' resiste& now% an& an" efforts will failKAfrica proves/:cure (6ewswee& )e$orter s$eciali>ing in African Studies-ason, /Why *emocracy sn7t Wor&ing0, ewswee&, une :2, @:@,

htt$(CCwww.newswee&.comC@:@C@C:2Cwhy#democracy#isn#t#wor&ing.html4CCAW

'o a casual o%server, the tens of thousands of $eo$le who $oured into the central sMuare of Ethio$ian ca$ital Addis A%a%a on 3ay R to $eacefullycele%rate the country7s elections might have %een mista&en for a massive sym%ol of democratic $rogress in a $oor and trou%led $art of the world. n fact

it was Muite the o$$osite. 'he demonstrators were there to denounce Human )ights Watch for critici>ing the victoryof Prime 3inister 3eles _enawi7s ruling Ethio$ian Peo$le7s )evolutionary *emocratic Front and its allies , who

claimed R<R out of R<? seats in Parliament following a massive cam$aign of intimidation against o$$osition su$$orters. 3any of the $rotesters were $aid the eMuivalent of a day7s wage for a few hours of shouting against Human )ights Watch. 'hey wereem%lematic not only of Ethio$ia7s return to a one#$arty state, :; years after the fall of a communist regime, %utalso of a growing trend away from democracy in wide swaths of Africa. 'he trend includes not only $ariahstates such as Eritrea and Sudan, %ut &ey Western allies and ma"or reci$ients of foreign aid such as Ethio$ia,Uganda, and 9enya. 'he 3o %rahim Foundation, which offers the world7s richest $ri>e $ac&age to Africanleaders who %oth hel$ their countries and $eacefully leave office, decided not to offer an award each of the last

two years. n )wanda, President Paul 9agame has %ecome a darling of the West for leading an economic renaissance in a nation traumati>ed %y the:;;@s genocide. 8ut in u$coming August elections, 9agame loo&s set to du$licate his im$lausi%ly high ;R $ercent victory in the last vote and is $ressingcharges against an o$$osition leader for /divisionism,0 namely down$laying the genocide. n Uganda, President Joweri 3useveni, who denounceddictatorshi$ in Africa when he too& $ower in :;2 and was seen as another great democratic ho$e, has said he7ll try to e=tend his <#year tenure in$residential elections ne=t year. n Ga%on and 'ogo, the deaths of long#serving autocrats 5mar 8ongo and Gnassing% Eyadma has meant elections in

which $ower was smoothly transferred6to their sons. *isastrous $olls in igeria and 9enya in @@? were worse than thosecountries7 $revious elections, and current trends show little ho$e for im$rovement. 3auritania, Guinea,3adagascar, and iger have all had cou$s since @@2, while Guinea#8issau has %een effectively ta&en over %ydrug cartels. Africa7s own institutions have %een una%le to halt the trend, which has gained s$eed since a $eriod of o$enness following the end of the

!old War. /'he democrati>ation $rocess on the continent is not faring very well,0 says ean Ping, the Ga%onesechairman of the African Union !ommission, which has overseen a host of Pan#African agreements ondemocracy and human rights that many mem%er states have either ignored or failed to ratify. /'he measuresthat we ta&e here are ta&en in a %id to ma&e sure that we move forward. 'he crises, they are re$eating



themselves.0 n country after country, the reci$e for the new age of authoritarianism is the same( demoni>ationand criminal $rosecution of o$$osition leaders, dire warnings of ethnic conflict and chaos should the ruling$arty %e to$$led, stac&ing of electoral commissions, and the mammoth mo%ili>ation of security forces andgovernment resources on %ehalf of the $arty in $ower. /'he really $owerful governments learned how to doelections,0 says )ichard *owden, director of the +ondon#%ased )oyal African Society. 'hat7s not to say the continent doesn7t retain some %rights$ots. n Ghana, $residents have twice ste$$ed down to ma&e way for leaders from the o$$osition. *emocracy has flourished in 8otswana and 8enin, while regional giant South Africa continues to have a vi%rant o$$osition and free $ress des$ite the African ational !ongress7s dominance of $ost#a$artheid $olitics.

Their authors are biase&Kthe" omit important &ata% have biase& interpretations of&emocracies% an& over eBa''erate effects/Soesilowati (6*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press-Sarti&a, /A !ritiMue of *emocratic Peace 'heory0, ournal of Society, !ulture, and Politics, ol.:, o.:,ovem%er :;, @:@, htt$(CCm&$.fisi$.unair.ac.idCinde=.$h$Oo$tioncomDcontentQviewarticleQid:<2(a#critiMue#of#democratic#$eace#theory#Qcatid<(m&$Qtemid4CCAW

However, those data $ur$osed to su$$ort democratic $eace thesis have %een shown to %e inadeMuate. +ayne -:;;<(4

says /'he statistical evidence that democracies do not fight each other seems im$ressive %ut in fact, it isinconclusive ...0 A num%er of critics suggest that the aggregate data is insufficient for the theory, since democracy is arelatively new $henomenon and interstate wars are generally rare occurrences. +ayne -:;;<(;4 e=$lains the a$$earance of

a large num%er of interactions with little or no conflict %etween democracies %ecause first, %etween :2:R and :;<R there

were very few democraciesT second, wars are a relatively rare occurrenceT third, dyads are not created eMual tore$resent a case where there is a real $ossi%ility of two states going to war. Similarly, other critics of the democracy $eacethesis address whether the statistics that show that democracies never -or rarely4 fight wars with each other are significant. S$iro -:;;<(R4 argues that

the a%sence of wars %etween li%eral democracies is not a significant $attern for most of the $ast two centuries %ecause the chance to go war among democracies is $redicted %y random. He claims that the chance that anygiven $air of states will %e at war at a given time is very low, and that there were few democracies anyway,$articularly %efore :;<R. !onseMuently, it is not sur$rising that dyads of democratic states have not gone to

war. Also, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R(:<4 assert that there is not a statistically significant difference in the $ro%a%ility of war %etween $airs of democracies and %etween $airs of other ty$es of $olities, e=ce$t in the years since :;<R. 'hey

suggest that the em$irical findings are sus$ect %ecause much of the aggregate data is from the $ost#World War $eriod, when most scholars agree that factors other than domestic regime ty$e wor&ed to $roduce $eace

%etween democracies. For e=am$le, 3ershmeir -:;;@(R:4 argues that %i$olarity, an eMual military %alance, and nuclear wea$ons have fostered

$eace in Euro$e over the $ast <R years. 'hus, the rarity democracies %efore :;<R, rarity of war and the fact thatinternational system had %een guaranteed with inter#national system raises difficult Muestion of a$$ro$riatestatistical techniMues. Furthermore, most of the $ro$onents of the democratic $eace theory are %ias to theanomalous data which shows wars %etween democracies. 'hey will discard this anomalous case %y shifting thedefinitions of war and democracy. S$iro -:;;<4 claims that the $ro$onents of democratic $eace Muic&ly dismiss thisanomalous evidence %y showing that one of the states in Muestion was not inde$endent state or democracy, orthe conflict in Muestion was not a war. 'he $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory have cited many anomalousdata as /candidate0 -)ussett :;;4 or /e=ce$tion0 -)ay :;;R4 to show that some wars occur %etween democracies inorder to counter the arguments against the democratic $eace theory . For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;(:?4 lists : wars amongdemocracies from :2: to :;? and )ay -:;;R(24 lists more than :; wars among democracies countries, from the:?th century to the @th century . However, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 claim the e=ce$tion of wars among democracies

%y arguing that those countries failed to %e categori>ed as democratic countries or inter#national war. )ussett

-:;;(:<4 is defining democracy as a regime in an inde$endent state that ensure full civil and economic li%erties( voting rights for a su%stantial fraction o

citi>ens, $eaceful transfer of $owers and fair com$etition %etween $olitical grou$s. n the case of +e%anon versus srael in :;?, )ussett -:;;(:24 arguesthat srael failed to %e categori>ed as a democracy %ecause it was not $reviously inde$endent and had not yet held a national election. However,+e%anese decision ma&ers had over twenty#five years to see srael democracy at wor&. According to Elman -:;??(4( ational elections, $eacefultransfers of $ower %etween o$$osing $olitical grou$s, and civil rights were all well entrenched long %efore srael. srael can %e considered a democracy$rior to its inde$endence there was little reason for +e%anese leaders to thin& that srael would cease to $ractice the democratic $rocesses that it had

instituted since :;@. nde$endence. )esearchers of the $eriod agree that. n sum, %y shifting the definition of democracy and theassum$tion of statehood, democratic $eace $ro$onents are a%le to e=clude the anomalies and controversy ofthe data. 5ther democratic wars are omitted %y stressing one feature of states which loo&s contradictory to therestrictive value of democratic countries. Elman -:;;?(4 mentions that there is a tendency to overem$hasi>e states7autocratic features while ignoring their democratic ones. For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 argue that the S$anish#

American War of :2;2 was not democracies war, %ecause S$anish was not im$lementing democracy $olicyma&ing. 8y contrast, critics argue that S$ain had already constituted some democratic $rocedures, the casecounts as disconfirming evidence -+ayne, :;;<4. Similarly, critics maintain that German demonstrated democratic



feature and conclude that the case of World War , Germany versus Western *emocracies, as a democracies war. However, the $ro$onents of democratic $eace %elieve that it is failed to %e categori>ed as a democracies war %y $ointing autocratic as$ect of m$erial German. 5n the other hand, the $ossi%ility always e=ists that ademocracy will revert to an authoritarian state, %ecause there is relative $ower among li%eral democracies-3ershmeir, :;;@(R@4. 'herefore, it is a $ro%lem in the argument of the $ro$onent of democratic $eace theory totreat the continuity of democratic features. 3oreover, the restriction of the definition of war allows the $ossi%ilityto e=clude the argument of wars among democracies. )ussett -:;;(:4 refers to Small and Singer to inter$ret the wars as a conflict

with :@@@ %attle deaths. He argues that war %etween Finland and the Western allies is no record of com%at andcausalities %etween them, and in the Si= *ay War of :;?, +e%anon $artici$ated in com%at only %y sending a

few aircraft into srael airs$ace. 'hus, these cases are e=cluded from the criteria of :@@@ %attle of fatalities.

However, according to S$iro -:;;<(R;4 defining war in this way allows democratic $eace $ro$onents to omit the case. 'hisis %ecause highly su%"ective "udgments %y which varia%les are coded in data sets have significant and im$ortanteffects on the results yielded %y analysis of those data. n sum, democratic $eace $ro$onents are ar%itrary intheir dismissal of cases that theory fails to account for.

Democracies can an& &o 'o to war with each other/Soesilowati (6*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press-Sarti&a, /A !ritiMue of *emocratic Peace 'heory0, ournal of Society, !ulture, and Politics, ol.:, o.:,ovem%er :;, @:@, htt$(CCm&$.fisi$.unair.ac.idCinde=.$h$Oo$tioncomDcontentQviewarticleQid:<2(a#critiMue#of#democratic#$eace#theory#Qcatid<(m&$Qtemid4CCAW

However, any causal e=$lanation of democratic $eace thesis that shows a $ositive relationshi$ %etweendemocracy and $eace that has %een given %y $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory is s$urious andcoincidental. +ayne -:;;<4 maintains that the historical record concludes that in these cases democracies have avoided

war, %ut there is no evidence that they did so %ecause they shared democratic norms. nstead, the democracies %ehaved in a manner $redicted %y realism( they acted on the %asis of their calculation of national interestT they$aid attention to strategic concerns, $articularly the distri%ution of military ca$a%ilitiesT and used threats whentheir vital interest were "eo$ardi>ed. Furthermore, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R4 argue that neither the normative nor thestructural e=$lanation of the democratic $eace is $ersuasive. 'hey argue that the a%sence of war %etweendemocracies during this $eriod reflects their common interest in allying against the Soviet Union, not any$eculiar features of their regime ty$e. Similarly, 5ren -:;;R4 contends that $airs of countries do remain at $eace %ecause they regard oneanother as democracies. He mentions that /the reason why the United States a$$ears not to fight ]our &ind7 is not that o%"ective li&eness su%stantiallyaffects war $ro$ensity, %ut rather that we su%tly redefine ]our &ind7.0 'hus, countries that have an interest remaining at $eace and to define one anotheras democracies. Furthermore, 3enshemeir -:;;@(<;4 claims that the argument of democratic $eace theory that authoritarian leaders are more $rone to

go to war than leaders of democracies, %ecause authoritarian leaders are not accounta%le to their $u%lics is flawed. !onversely , it is not $ossi%leto sustain the claim that the $eo$le in a democracy are es$ecially sensitive to the costs of war and therefore less

willing than authoritarian leaders to fight wars. Another argument, which em$hasi>es the transnational res$ectfor democratic rights among democracies, rests on wea&er factors or reasons for not going or going to war.'hese reasons are usually overridden %y other factors such as nationalism and religious fundamentalism

-3arsheimer, :;;@(R@4. +i&ewise, 9acowit> -:;;R(4 asserts that the causal e=$lanation of democratic $eace theory iscontained limitation. He suggests that well#esta%lished democracies do not fight each other since they are conservative $owers, usually satisfied with the territorial status Muo within and across their %orders. 3oreover, Gowa -:;;R4 who o%served that it is difficult to distinguish %etween norm %ased

and interest %ase attri%ution of foreign $olicy conduct. 'here are, however, other e=$lanations of why certain countries do notto go war. Alliances and distance are included among the contested reasons against the democratic $eace thesis-Peterson :;;?4. Alliances %i$olarity, multilarity, with their regulations, will ham$er countries from going war.Furthermore, if they are geogra$hically so far a$art and lac& $ower $ro"ection ca$a%ilities, they are $hysicallyinca$a%le of fighting each other.

Democracies &o not prevent war/6a"es ((6Ph* at Georgia nstitute of 'echnology -arrod, /'he *emocratic Peace and the ew Evolution of an 5ld dea0, Euro$ean ournal of nternational)elations, une :@, @::, htt$(CCe"t.sage$u%.comC4CCAW

n this critical overview, argue that, while the idea of a democratic $eace has en"oyed an immense amount of attention,the nature of inMuiry has created significant lacunae that have only recently %egun to %e addressed.3ethodologically, large# Muantitative studies dominate the field.ii While these studies have %een invalua%le in esta%lishing the claim that the

democratic $eace $henomenon e=ists -what call the ]statistical democratic $eace7N% b" their ver" nature the" are able to&emonstrate onl" correlation% not causation . ot sur$risingly, what effort these studies did ma&etowards understanding and e=$laining the democratic $eace focused on causes6norms and institutions -3ao>



and )ussett, :;;46that could %e Muantified, either directly or %y $ro=y. Jet the Muantitative nature of the studiesdoes not ena%le access to causal forces. 'he mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace remained shrouded inshadow. 'he end of the !old War and the su%seMuent -at least rhetorical4 inclusion of the democratic $eace inU.S. foreign $olicy means the field, now more than ever, needs to develo$ a %etter understanding of themechanisms within -and without4 democracies that generate the o%served $eace. n the $rocess of e=$anding our inMuiryof the mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace, we will actually generate a new, %roader field of study( democratic security. 'his review derives itsem$hasis on mechanisms from the scholarshi$ on scientific realism -8has&ar, :;?RT Harr and 3adden, :;?RT 3anicas, @@4 and 3ario 8unge7ssystemism $hiloso$hy -8unge, :;;T 8unge, @@@T 8unge, @@<%4. While the social sciences have largely %een o%livious, $hiloso$hers of science haveMuestioned the Humean, deductive#nonological model of science. 'hese Muestions have given rise to a model of science focused on $rocesses andmechanisms( /the real goal of science is neither the e=$lanation of events nor the e=$lanation of $atterns, though this idea catches dome of the truth of

the matter. )ather, it has as its goal an understanding of the fundamental $rocesses of nature0 -3anicas, @@( :<4. E=$lanation, then, /reMuires thatthere is a Ireal connection,I a generative ne=us that $roduced or :%rought a%out the event -or $attern4 to %e e=$lained0 -3anicas, @@( @4.

Accordingly, correlation on its own cannot serve as e=$lanation -much less understanding4 %ecause it does notallow the analyst access to the mechanisms at $lay( what causes what and how. 'he ongoing focus %y socialscientists on covering laws thus %etrays a romantic understanding of science that is not only not what $hysicalscientists do, %ut that is fatally flawed as a mode of intellectual inMuiry. 8unge li&ewise em$hasi>es the im$ortance ofmechanisms in systemism, his $hiloso$hy of social science. 8unge argues that the study of the social sciences is the study of social systems and thusreMuires a ]]systemist77 a$$roach over traditional a$$roaches that com$artmentali>e social studies -holism, for e=am$le structural realism, versusindividualism, for e=am$le rational choice4. 'he central focus of the systemist a$$roach is the human system( the interaction %etween individuals andsociety. E=$lanation lin&s rather than se$arates the structural and individual levels.

Democrac" &oesnt workKthe &emocratic peace theor" is oversimplifie&/6a"es ((6Ph* at Georgia nstitute of 'echnology -arrod, /'he *emocratic Peace and the ew Evolution of an 5ld dea0, Euro$ean ournal of nternational

)elations, une :@, @::, htt$(CCe"t.sage$u%.comC4CCAW A %roader critiMue of the efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through structural and normative mechanismslies in the artificial se$aration of the two. !learly the se$aration serves analytical $ur$oses( it serves as tool forisolating dynamics that would %e lost in the com$le=ity of international affairs. However, often the literatureloses sight of the %ig $icture. As 9ahl $oints out, norms and structure are com$limentary -9ahl, :;;;( ;;4. While some effort has %een madeto integrate the two into a coherent holistic e=$lanation -5neal et al., :;;T *oyle, @@RT 2+i$son, @@4, these efforts have a tentative Muality to them.'he 5neal et al article ty$ifies much of the literature( a large #regression finding that states characteri>ed %y economic interde$endence, constrained

$olitical actors, and norms of non#violent conflict resolution are $eaceful. 'here is very little in the $a$er, however, that sheds lighton how these factors affect the $acific outcome. *oyle7s @@R article, which %uilds off his $revious wor& on the democratic $eace

-*oyle, :;2aT *oyle, :;2%T *oyle, :;24, li&ewise suggests a lin&age %etween norms and structure. n democracies, according to *oyle, re$resentation-structure4 should ensure that wars are fought only for li%eral -norms4 $ur$oses. However, *oyle s$ea&s only to this $oint very %riefly, and does so in the

conte=t of a wide#ranging e=$lanation that im$licates a multitude of $rocesses in the eventual democratic $eace outcome. How e=actlyre$resentation ensures li%eral wars remains somewhat am%iguous. !larifications of the relative weight of the

various mechanisms or whether they actually o$erate in the ways *oyle indicates are left to others to resolve.+i$son argues that ]constitutional7 democracies are $eaceful with each other %ecause of sta%le contracting. 'hat is, through the contracting advantages ofdemocracy6regime sta%ility, audience costs, entrenched $rocedures6democracies are a%le to forge /relia%le, forward#loo&ing agreements that minimi>ethe dead#weight costs of direct military engagement0 -+i$son, @@( <4. 'his a$$roach, +i$son argues, ta&es account of %oth norms and structure. A

careful read of the argument, however, shows an e=tremely limited discussion of norms. nstead, the argument overwhelmingly focuseson the $olitical structures that give rise to sta%le, relia%le contracting %etween democracies. +i$son7s ma"orcontri%ution then is to develo$ an a$$roach that %inds together many of the structural e=$lanations rather than

%uilding a theory that meaningfully incor$orates norms and structure in e=$lanation. However, as with otherefforts at reconciling norms and structure, the underlying theoretical framewor& do not give us a solid %asis forunderstanding how the two fit together. Perha$s a more fundamental $ro%lem with the second wave literature lies in the failure of these

e=$lanations to account for how threat is constructed. 'he democratic $eace is at its core a%out threat construction of the lac&thereof. Structural e=$lanations have little to say on this $oint, mar&ing a significant wea&ness of thosea$$roaches. ormative arguments fare %etter, %ut do not go far enoughT their underlying assum$tion that

threats are self#evident, informed %y democratic norms, assumes too much. 8oth e=$lanations, $ossi%ly arisingout of their %irth nested within large# studies, are overly deterministic. Security $olicy, indeed most state$olicies, arises out of a com$licated dynamic %etween elected officials, %ureaucracy, divisions of government,$olitical $arties, and individuals. Efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through a singular cause, to thee=clusion of all others, are %ound to %e found wanting. Several scholars have to varying degrees indicated thatthe contention %etween structural and normative e=$lanations is a false one -)ay, :;;R4. 'hus, while the critiMue is not new,

it does %ear re$eating. )osato also notes the -im$licitly4 deterministic nature of structural and normativee=$lanations and while Slantchev and his coauthors argue )osato misreads the $ro%a%ilistic nature ofdemocratic $eace research, it remains the case that most of the literature is im$licitly rather than e=$licitly$ro%a%ilistic -)osato, @@T Slantchev et al., @@R4. Within the second wave and standing a$art from much of the literature on the democratic$eace, Elman7s edited volume of com$arative case studies deserves $articular mention -Elman, :;;?a4. t is, to date, one of the most coherent efforts to

utili>e case studies to e=$lore the democratic $eace. Unfortunately for advocates of the democratic $eace, it ma&es for difficult reading.=iii ; S&e$tical



of the claims of the democratic $eace, Elman claims that she and her coauthors are /gate crashers at thedemocratic $eace $arty0 -Elman, :;;?%( vii4. +i&e the other counterarguments to the democratic $eace, the volume focuses on thenormative and structural e=$lanations of the democratic $eace as the $rinci$al e=$lanatory mechanisms.'hroughout the nine cases, the monadic a$$roach to the democratic $eace is thoroughly disa%used and thedyadic $ro$osition is significantly Mualified, although it should %e said that not all the cases focus on dyadic relations, or evendemocracies. 5ne section of the %oo& focuses almost e=clusively on nondemocratic interactions, for e=am$le 3alin e=amines relations %etween raM andran from :;?R#:;2@ -3alin, :;;?4. 'he volume is not all critical, and some interesting new information is $roduced6nota%ly the suggestion that shareddemocratic governance is $articularly im$ortant to the United States in foreign $olicy ma&ing -)oc&, :;;?4. While Elman7s conclusions ta&e neorealisttheorists to tas& for outright dismissal of the democratic $eace regime6an irony given +ayne7s effort to do "ust that in the first case study of the %oo&6

she -rightly4 $oints out that the democratic $eace $rogram at the time oversim$lified e=$lanatory mechanisms

and overreached on the resulting conclusions. n $articular, she notes the failure of democratic $eace research toa$$reciate the com$le=ity of democracy and its neglect of domestic democratic $olitics -Elman, :;;?a( <24.

Democrac" &oesnt work/Rab" an& Teorell (K[*e$artment of Political Science at +und University [['he Kuality of Governmentnstitute, *e$artment of Political Science at +und University -ils and an, /A Kuality of Government PeaceO 8ringing the State 8ac& nto the Study of nter#State Armed!onflict0, 'he Kuality of Government E=$eriment, University of Gothen%urg, Se$tem%er @:@,htt$(CCwww.Mog.$ol.gu.seCwor&ingD$a$ersC@:@D@D)a%yD'eorell.$df4CCAW

'hat democracies do not wage wars against each other is undou%tedly one of the most widely acce$ted claims within the study of international relations. Pro%a%ly less well &nown is the fact that, when seen from the$ers$ective of the %roader literature on domestic conseMuences of democracy, the democratic $eace effect issomething of an e=ce$tion. *es$ite countless of studies, there are for e=am$le no ro%ust evidence lin&ingdemocracy to economic growth or even to $overty reduction or human develo$ment more generally -for anoverview, see )othstein and 'eorell @@24. 'rue, democracy usually comes out as a strong $redictor of humanrights, %ut democracy should argua%ly %e defined at least $artly in terms of &ey $ersonal integrity rights, so thisfinding is not all that sur$rising. 'his contrasts shar$ly with the more ro%ust findings lin&ing /goodgovernance0 and highMuality government institutions 6 other than democracy 6 to $referred social, economicand $olitical outcomes. 'o %egin with, economists have started to view dysfunctional government institutionsas the most serious o%stacle to economic develo$ment across the glo%e -e.g., Hall and ones :;;;T Acemoglu,ohnson, and )o%inson @@:, @@T Easterly and +evine @@T )odri&, Su%ramanian, and 're%%i @@<4.Unli&e democracy, the Muality of government -KoG4 factor has also %een argued to have su%stantial effects on anum%er of im$ortant noneconomic $henomena, %oth at the individual level 6 such as su%"ective ha$$iness-Frey and Stut>er @@@T Helliwell @@T 'avits @@?T Helliwell and Huang @@24, citi>en su$$ort for

government -Anderson and 'verdova @@T !hang and !hu @@4, and inter$ersonal trust -)othstein andUslaner @@?T )othstein and Stolle @@2T )othstein and Ee& @@;4 6 and at the societal level 6 such asim$roved $u%lic health and environmental sustaina%ility -Holm%erg et al. @@;4, and state legitimacy -Gilley@@4. n this $a$er we attem$t to %ring the study of interstate conflict more in line with this more generalliterature. 3ore s$ecifically, drawing on dyadic 3ilitari>ed nterstate *is$utes data in :;2R#@@@, we showthat the im$act of Muality of government on the ris& of interstate conflict %y large amounts trum$s theinfluence of democracy. We thus find stronger evidence in favour of a Muality of government as com$ared to ademocratic $eace. 'hese results hold even under control for incom$lete democrati>ation, realist claims andgeogra$hic constraints. We also find that the relationshi$ %etween Muality of government and $eace is ro%ust tocontrols for the /ca$italist $eace0 -Gart>&e @@?4, an alternative account that in recent years has %een < $utforward as a challenge to democratic $eace theory. 'heoretically, we argue that the causal mechanismunderlying this finding is that Muality of government reduces information asymmetry among $otentially

warring $arties, im$roves their a%ility to communicate resolve, and to credi%ly commit to &ee$ to their$romises. 8y ta&ing into account %roader features of the state as a com$le= organi>ation, we conceive of theMuality of government $eace as an argument for %rining /the state %ac& in0 to the study of armed conflict andinternational relations more generally.

!urrent#day democracy tactics will never wor&6they only lead to true democracy downfall.Farrelly :@6Winner of the !!A nternational !ritics Award, the Pascall Pri>e for !ritical Writing, and the3arion 3ahony Griffin AwardT columnist for the Sydney Morning Herald, a commentator on Australiantelevision and radio, and Ad"unct Associate Professor of Architecture at the University of Sydney -Eli>a%eth, /*emocracy # seeds of dou%t or seeds that will s$rout strongO0, ews and Features, Sydney3orning Herald, 5cto%er ?, @:@, +e=ise=is4CCAW



*emocracy was %orn with the seeds of its destruction in its mouth and, right now, were seeing them s$rout. ot

so dangerous really. ohn Adams said it two centuries ago( I *emocracy never lasts long. t soon wastes, e=hausts andmurders itself. 'here never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.I 3ay%e this is o%vious. *emocracy, asthe $olitics of desire, has $roved less ade$t at eradicating monarchy than at ma&ing fat little sovereigns of usall, $leasure#see&ing, $ain#intolerant. 5ur leaders are our creaturesT what we wont acce$t, they darent im$ose.

'hus, the Prime 3inister, ulia Gillard, cannot so much as mouth the words Icar%on ta=I. 5ur hedonism demands her cowardice. Andit is this hedonic addiction, this %ondage to small, salient desira%les such as %ig#screen tellies and 9uta holidaysthat has left democracy $araly>ed in the face of the ele$hant#si>e undesira%les such as climate change and the

GF!. A century ago, America led the rising gra$h on this desire#democracy. ow it may %e leading the fall. -Although 8ra>il, its electoralcircus com$rising si= foot%allers, four singers, two stand#u$ comics, a cele%rity transse=ual, a catwal& model and an allegedly illiterate clown, might ta&ethe ca&e here.4 'his wasnt always so. Early on, as democracy grew from the hus& of aristocracy, it was still ca$a%le of im$osing the ta=es and statutes,the chec&s and %alances needed to constrain desire for the greater good. And $erha$s, over time, we were always going to vote away such constraints,

"ust as we voted away the constraints of theology in order to swim freely in the warm s$rings of li%eralism. 8ut now, as resentment %uilds at afree#mar&et oligarchy that not only allows itself to fail , and fail s$ectacularly, %ut e=$ects us $le%s to $ic& u$the ta%, a strange new cross#fertili>ation is a$$arent. ts a conservative $eo$le#$ower movement where $eo$lecherry#$ic& values from old#right and old#left to ma&e a new $olitical %lend. n 8ritain I)ed 'oryI Philli$ 8lond has %ecome

the $hiloso$her#&ing of this new synthesis, arguing that since :;<R Ili%eralism has undone %oth the left and the rightI %y ma&ingdesire central. 'he $resum$tion of self#interested individualism, he says, as $ro$agated %y )ousseau and Adam Smith, necessitated the nanny#statein $lace of the $ersonal conscience. -8lond, one notes, has a %ac&ground in Anglican theology.4 For 8lond, then, Iindividualism and statism are two sides

of the same coinI. Parado=ically, he says, the $resum$tion of individual eMuality has led to Ia $erverse cor$oratismI on %oth sides, in which the IeMuality of o$$ortunityI doctrine has only entrenched and $er$etuated disadvantage

until it seems almost genetic. 8lond has the ear of the 8ritish Prime 3inister, *avid !ameron, and is credited with his I8ig SocietyI answer to %ig government. How that translates on the ground remains to %e seen. Some e=$ect little advance onnotorious Iget on yer %i&eI advice to the $oor from the 'hatcher#era minister orman 'e%%it, and 8lond fears that +a%ours Ed 3ili%and -eMui$$ed withhis own whis$ering $hiloso$her, I%lue +a%ourI academic 3aurice Glasman4 might ta&e this new middle ground first. 8ut at least theyre having thede%ate. At least its actually a%out ideas, and the arguments are genuinely thoughtful in a way that suggests theres life in democracy yet. Here, where were entertaining the same weirdly refreshing mi= of values, it seems almost accidental. Perha$s it was no accident. Perha$s, faced with choosing %etween our own circus of semi#literate clowns, and confronting the terri%le irony that "ust when we get sufficiently fed#u$ with two#$arty $osturing to vote otherwise, the third $arty vanishes, we did the only reasona%le thing. We elevated a ruffian gang of inde$endents who may not amount to much asindividuals %ut "ointly render the system more honest and o$era%le than it has %een for years. 'his is not a IhungI $arliament. 'hats the loaded

terminology of a two#$arty orthodo=y. 'his $arliament # suddenly and une=$ectedly freed from the mor%idities of the whi$ system # is a wor&ing $arliament. So $erha$s its not democracy eating itself. Perha$s what were seeing is democracy feeding itselfT $erha$s

the seeds in its mouth were not those of destruction, %ut of renewalO Perha$s. 'his suggests well need to dro$ the %icameral system. )edesign our

$arliaments to %e not o$$ositional shoe#%o=es %ut round, may%e, or sMuare, with cross#%enches as long as the sides. Further, far from mandatingthe vote, restrict it, turning a duty into a $rivilege, earna%le %y demonstrating some sem%lance of &nowledge. -m thin&ing a really challenging test, li&e naming the de$uty P3.4 'his way we might ho$e for a tric&le#u$ effect, where%y asmarter constituency eventually demands and gets smarter $oliticians. 8ut how long have we gotO

Democrac" failsKprecon&itions &ictate/Sowell ((6)ose and 3ilton Friedman Senior Fellow, 'he Hoover nstitution at Stanford University -'homas, /nstant *emocracy *oesn7t Wor&0, Worldet*aily, 3arch :, @::,htt$(CCwww.wnd.comCinde=.$h$O$aged;:4AW


who are not 3uslims. Freedom and democracy cannot %e sim$ly conferred on anyone. 8oth have

$reconditions, and even nations that are free and democratic today too& centuries to get there. f there wereever a time when $eo$le in Western democracies might %e e=cused for thin&ing that Western institutions couldsim$ly %e e=$orted to other nations to create new free democracies, that time has long $assed/ t is easy toe=$ort the outward sym%ols of democracy B constitutions, elections, $arliaments and the li&e B %ut you cannote=$ort the centuries of e=$erience and develo$ment that made those institutions wor&. All too often, e=$orteddemocratic institutions have meant Ione man, one vote B one time.I We should not assume that our ownfreedom and democratic form of government can %e ta&en for granted. 'hose who created this country did not.

As the !onstitution of the United States was %eing written, a lady as&ed 8en"amin Fran&lin what he and theother writers were creating. He re$lied, IA re$u%lic, madam B if you can &ee$ it.I Generations later, A%raham+incoln also $osed it as a Muestion, whether Igovernment of the $eo$le, %y the $eo$le and for the $eo$leI is onethat Ican long endure.I ust as there are nations that have not yet develo$ed the $reconditions for freedom and



democracy, so there are some $eo$le within a nation who have not. 'he advance toward universal suffrage too&$lace slowly and in stages. 'oo many $eo$le, loo&ing %ac& today, see that as "ust %eing %iased against some$eo$le. 8ut $utting the fate of a nation in the hands of the illiterate masses of the $ast, many with noconce$tion of the com$le=ities of government, might have meant ris&ing the same fate of Ione man, one vote Bone time.I 'oday, we ta&e universal literacy for granted. 8ut literacy has not %een universal across all segmentsof the American $o$ulation during all of the @th century. lliteracy was the norm in Al%ania as recently as the:;@s and in ndia in the second half of the @th century. 8are literacy is "ust one of the things needed to ma&edemocracy via%le. Without a sense of res$onsi%le citi>enshi$, voters can elect leaders who are not merelyincom$etent or corru$t, %ut even leaders with contem$t for the constitutional limitations on government

$ower that $reserve the $eo$les freedom.

Democrac" is bein' resiste& now% an& an" efforts will failKAfrica proves/:cure (6ewswee& )e$orter s$eciali>ing in African Studies-ason, /Why *emocracy sn7t Wor&ing0, ewswee&, une :2, @:@,htt$(CCwww.newswee&.comC@:@C@C:2Cwhy#democracy#isn#t#wor&ing.html4CCAW



claimed R<R out of R<? seats in Parliament following a massive cam$aign of intimidation against o$$osition su$$orters. 3any of the $rotesters were $aid the eMuivalent of a day7s wage for a few hours of shouting against Human )ights Watch. 'hey wereem%lematic not only of Ethio$ia7s return to a one#$arty state, :; years after the fall of a communist regime, %utalso of a growing trend away from democracy in wide swaths of Africa. 'he trend includes not only $ariahstates such as Eritrea and Sudan, %ut &ey Western allies and ma"or reci$ients of foreign aid such as Ethio$ia,Uganda, and 9enya. 'he 3o %rahim Foundation, which offers the world7s richest $ri>e $ac&age to Africanleaders who %oth hel$ their countries and $eacefully leave office, decided not to offer an award each of the lasttwo years. n )wanda, President Paul 9agame has %ecome a darling of the West for leading an economic renaissance in a nation traumati>ed %y the

:;;@s genocide. 8ut in u$coming August elections, 9agame loo&s set to du$licate his im$lausi%ly high ;R $ercent victory in the last vote and is $ressingcharges against an o$$osition leader for /divisionism,0 namely down$laying the genocide. n Uganda, President Joweri 3useveni, who denounceddictatorshi$ in Africa when he too& $ower in :;2 and was seen as another great democratic ho$e, has said he7ll try to e=tend his <#year tenure in$residential elections ne=t year. n Ga%on and 'ogo, the deaths of long#serving autocrats 5mar 8ongo and Gnassing% Eyadma has meant elections in

which $ower was smoothly transferred6to their sons. *isastrous $olls in igeria and 9enya in @@? were worse than thosecountries7 $revious elections, and current trends show little ho$e for im$rovement. 3auritania, Guinea,3adagascar, and iger have all had cou$s since @@2, while Guinea#8issau has %een effectively ta&en over %y

drug cartels. Africa7s own institutions have %een una%le to halt the trend, which has gained s$eed since a $eriod of o$enness following the end of the

!old War. /'he democrati>ation $rocess on the continent is not faring very well,0 says ean Ping, the Ga%onesechairman of the African Union !ommission, which has overseen a host of Pan#African agreements ondemocracy and human rights that many mem%er states have either ignored or failed to ratify. /'he measuresthat we ta&e here are ta&en in a %id to ma&e sure that we move forward. 'he crises, they are re$eatingthemselves.0 n country after country, the reci$e for the new age of authoritarianism is the same( demoni>ationand criminal $rosecution of o$$osition leaders, dire warnings of ethnic conflict and chaos should the ruling$arty %e to$$led, stac&ing of electoral commissions, and the mammoth mo%ili>ation of security forces andgovernment resources on %ehalf of the $arty in $ower. /'he really $owerful governments learned how to doelections,0 says )ichard *owden, director of the +ondon#%ased )oyal African Society. 'hat7s not to say the continent doesn7t retain some %rights$ots. n Ghana, $residents have twice ste$$ed down to ma&e way for leaders from the o$$osition. *emocracy has flourished in 8otswana and 8enin, while regional giant South Africa continues to have a vi%rant o$$osition and free $ress des$ite the African ational !ongress7s dominance of $ost#a$artheid $olitics.

Their authors are biase&Kthe" omit important &ata% have biase& interpretations of&emocracies% an& over eBa''erate effects/Soesilowati (K*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press-Sartika% =A Criti+ue of Democratic <eace Theor">% 0ournal of Societ"% Culture% an& <olitics%

Hol/(5% )o/(% )ovember (!% 3(% httpO22mkp/fisip/unair/ac/i&2in&eB/phpPoptioncomQcontentGviewarticleGi&(@8Oa-criti+ue-of-&emocratic-peace-theor"-Gcati&5@OmkpGItemi&13N22A#


says /'he statistical evidence that democracies do not fight each other seems im$ressive %ut in fact, it is



inconclusive ...0 A num%er of critics suggest that the aggregate data is insufficient for the theory, since democracy is arelatively new $henomenon and interstate wars are generally rare occurrences. +ayne -:;;<(;4 e=$lains the a$$earance of

a large num%er of interactions with little or no conflict %etween democracies %ecause first, %etween :2:R and :;<R there were very few democraciesT second, wars are a relatively rare occurrenceT third, dyads are not created eMual tore$resent a case where there is a real $ossi%ility of two states going to war. Similarly, other critics of the democracy $eacethesis address whether the statistics that show that democracies never -or rarely4 fight wars with each other are significant. S$iro -:;;<(R4 argues that

the a%sence of wars %etween li%eral democracies is not a significant $attern for most of the $ast two centuries %ecause the chance to go war among democracies is $redicted %y random. He claims that the chance that anygiven $air of states will %e at war at a given time is very low, and that there were few democracies anyway,

$articularly %efore :;<R. !onseMuently, it is not sur$rising that dyads of democratic states have not gone to war. Also, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R(:<4 assert that there is not a statistically significant difference in the $ro%a%ility of war %etween $airs of democracies and %etween $airs of other ty$es of $olities, e=ce$t in the years since :;<R. 'hey



$eace in Euro$e over the $ast <R years. 'hus, the rarity democracies %efore :;<R, rarity of war and the fact thatinternational system had %een guaranteed with inter#national system raises difficult Muestion of a$$ro$riatestatistical techniMues. Furthermore, most of the $ro$onents of the democratic $eace theory are %ias to theanomalous data which shows wars %etween democracies. 'hey will discard this anomalous case %y shifting thedefinitions of war and democracy. S$iro -:;;<4 claims that the $ro$onents of democratic $eace Muic&ly dismiss thisanomalous evidence %y showing that one of the states in Muestion was not inde$endent state or democracy, or

the conflict in Muestion was not a war. 'he $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory have cited many anomalousdata as /candidate0 -)ussett :;;4 or /e=ce$tion0 -)ay :;;R4 to show that some wars occur %etween democracies inorder to counter the arguments against the democratic $eace theory . For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;(:?4 lists : wars amongdemocracies from :2: to :;? and )ay -:;;R(24 lists more than :; wars among democracies countries, from the:?th century to the @th century . However, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 claim the e=ce$tion of wars among democracies

%y arguing that those countries failed to %e categori>ed as democratic countries or inter#national war. )ussett

-:;;(:<4 is defining democracy as a regime in an inde$endent state that ensure full civil and economic li%erties( voting rights for a su%stantial fraction ociti>ens, $eaceful transfer of $owers and fair com$etition %etween $olitical grou$s. n the case of +e%anon versus srael in :;?, )ussett -:;;(:24 arguesthat srael failed to %e categori>ed as a democracy %ecause it was not $reviously inde$endent and had not yet held a national election. However,+e%anese decision ma&ers had over twenty#five years to see srael democracy at wor&. According to Elman -:;??(4( ational elections, $eacefultransfers of $ower %etween o$$osing $olitical grou$s, and civil rights were all well entrenched long %efore srael. srael can %e considered a democracy$rior to its inde$endence there was little reason for +e%anese leaders to thin& that srael would cease to $ractice the democratic $rocesses that it had

instituted since :;@. nde$endence. )esearchers of the $eriod agree that. n sum, %y shifting the definition of democracy and theassum$tion of statehood, democratic $eace $ro$onents are a%le to e=clude the anomalies and controversy of

the data. 5ther democratic wars are omitted %y stressing one feature of states which loo&s contradictory to therestrictive value of democratic countries. Elman -:;;?(4 mentions that there is a tendency to overem$hasi>e states7autocratic features while ignoring their democratic ones. For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 argue that the S$anish#

American War of :2;2 was not democracies war, %ecause S$anish was not im$lementing democracy $olicyma&ing. 8y contrast, critics argue that S$ain had already constituted some democratic $rocedures, the casecounts as disconfirming evidence -+ayne, :;;<4. Similarly, critics maintain that German demonstrated democraticfeature and conclude that the case of World War , Germany versus Western *emocracies, as a democracies

war. However, the $ro$onents of democratic $eace %elieve that it is failed to %e categori>ed as a democracies war %y $ointing autocratic as$ect of m$erial German. 5n the other hand, the $ossi%ility always e=ists that ademocracy will revert to an authoritarian state, %ecause there is relative $ower among li%eral democracies-3ershmeir, :;;@(R@4. 'herefore, it is a $ro%lem in the argument of the $ro$onent of democratic $eace theory totreat the continuity of democratic features. 3oreover, the restriction of the definition of war allows the $ossi%ility

to e=clude the argument of wars among democracies. )ussett -:;;(:4 refers to Small and Singer to inter$ret the wars as a conflict with :@@@ %attle deaths. He argues that war %etween Finland and the Western allies is no record of com%at andcausalities %etween them, and in the Si= *ay War of :;?, +e%anon $artici$ated in com%at only %y sending afew aircraft into srael airs$ace. 'hus, these cases are e=cluded from the criteria of :@@@ %attle of fatalities.

However, according to S$iro -:;;<(R;4 defining war in this way allows democratic $eace $ro$onents to omit the case. 'hisis %ecause highly su%"ective "udgments %y which varia%les are coded in data sets have significant and im$ortanteffects on the results yielded %y analysis of those data. n sum, democratic $eace $ro$onents are ar%itrary intheir dismissal of cases that theory fails to account for.

Democracies can an& &o 'o to war with each other/Soesilowati (K*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press



-Sartika% =A Criti+ue of Democratic <eace Theor">% 0ournal of Societ"% Culture% an& <olitics% Hol/(5% )o/(% )ovember (!% 3(% httpO22mkp/fisip/unair/ac/i&2in&eB/phpPoptioncomQcontentGviewarticleGi&(@8Oa-criti+ue-of-&emocratic-peace-theor"-Gcati&5@OmkpGItemi&13N22A#

However, any causal e=$lanation of democratic $eace thesis that shows a $ositive relationshi$ %etweendemocracy and $eace that has %een given %y $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory is s$urious andcoincidental. +ayne -:;;<4 maintains that the historical record concludes that in these cases democracies have avoided

war, %ut there is no evidence that they did so %ecause they shared democratic norms. nstead, the democracies

%ehaved in a manner $redicted %y realism( they acted on the %asis of their calculation of national interestT they$aid attention to strategic concerns, $articularly the distri%ution of military ca$a%ilitiesT and used threats whentheir vital interest were "eo$ardi>ed. Furthermore, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R4 argue that neither the normative nor thestructural e=$lanation of the democratic $eace is $ersuasive. 'hey argue that the a%sence of war %etweendemocracies during this $eriod reflects their common interest in allying against the Soviet Union, not any$eculiar features of their regime ty$e. Similarly, 5ren -:;;R4 contends that $airs of countries do remain at $eace %ecause they regard oneanother as democracies. He mentions that /the reason why the United States a$$ears not to fight ]our &ind7 is not that o%"ective li&eness su%stantiallyaffects war $ro$ensity, %ut rather that we su%tly redefine ]our &ind7.0 'hus, countries that have an interest remaining at $eace and to define one anotheras democracies. Furthermore, 3enshemeir -:;;@(<;4 claims that the argument of democratic $eace theory that authoritarian leaders are more $rone to


willing than authoritarian leaders to fight wars. Another argument, which em$hasi>es the transnational res$ectfor democratic rights among democracies, rests on wea&er factors or reasons for not going or going to war.

'hese reasons are usually overridden %y other factors such as nationalism and religious fundamentalism


and interest %ase attri%ution of foreign $olicy conduct. 'here are, however, other e=$lanations of why certain countries do notto go war. Alliances and distance are included among the contested reasons against the democratic $eace thesis-Peterson :;;?4. Alliances %i$olarity, multilarity, with their regulations, will ham$er countries from going war.Furthermore, if they are geogra$hically so far a$art and lac& $ower $ro"ection ca$a%ilities, they are $hysicallyinca$a%le of fighting each other.



democratic $eace $henomenon e=ists -what call the ]statistical democratic $eace7N% b" their ver" nature the" are able to&emonstrate onl" correlation% not causation . ot sur$risingly, what effort these studies did ma&etowards understanding and e=$laining the democratic $eace focused on causes6norms and institutions -3ao>

and )ussett, :;;46that could %e Muantified, either directly or %y $ro=y. Jet the Muantitative nature of the studiesdoes not ena%le access to causal forces. 'he mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace remained shrouded inshadow. 'he end of the !old War and the su%seMuent -at least rhetorical4 inclusion of the democratic $eace inU.S. foreign $olicy means the field, now more than ever, needs to develo$ a %etter understanding of the

mechanisms within -and without4 democracies that generate the o%served $eace. n the $rocess of e=$anding our inMuiryof the mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace, we will actually generate a new, %roader field of study( democratic security. 'his review derives itsem$hasis on mechanisms from the scholarshi$ on scientific realism -8has&ar, :;?RT Harr and 3adden, :;?RT 3anicas, @@4 and 3ario 8unge7ssystemism $hiloso$hy -8unge, :;;T 8unge, @@@T 8unge, @@<%4. While the social sciences have largely %een o%livious, $hiloso$hers of science haveMuestioned the Humean, deductive#nonological model of science. 'hese Muestions have given rise to a model of science focused on $rocesses andmechanisms( /the real goal of science is neither the e=$lanation of events nor the e=$lanation of $atterns, though this idea catches dome of the truth ofthe matter. )ather, it has as its goal an understanding of the fundamental $rocesses of nature0 -3anicas, @@( :<4. E=$lanation, then, /reMuires thatthere is a Ireal connection,I a generative ne=us that $roduced or :%rought a%out the event -or $attern4 to %e e=$lained0 -3anicas, @@( @4.

Accordingly, correlation on its own cannot serve as e=$lanation -much less understanding4 %ecause it does notallow the analyst access to the mechanisms at $lay( what causes what and how. 'he ongoing focus %y socialscientists on covering laws thus %etrays a romantic understanding of science that is not only not what $hysicalscientists do, %ut that is fatally flawed as a mode of intellectual inMuiry. 8unge li&ewise em$hasi>es the im$ortance of

mechanisms in systemism, his $hiloso$hy of social science. 8unge argues that the study of the social sciences is the study of social systems and thusreMuires a ]]systemist77 a$$roach over traditional a$$roaches that com$artmentali>e social studies -holism, for e=am$le structural realism, versus



individualism, for e=am$le rational choice4. 'he central focus of the systemist a$$roach is the human system( the interaction %etween individuals andsociety. E=$lanation lin&s rather than se$arates the structural and individual levels.

Democrac" &oesnt workKthe &emocratic peace theor" is oversimplifie&/6a"es ((6Ph* at Georgia nstitute of 'echnology -arrod, /'he *emocratic Peace and the ew Evolution of an 5ld dea0, Euro$ean ournal of nternational)elations, une :@, @::, htt$(CCe"t.sage$u%.comC4CCAW

A %roader critiMue of the efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through structural and normative mechanismslies in the artificial se$aration of the two. !learly the se$aration serves analytical $ur$oses( it serves as tool for

isolating dynamics that would %e lost in the com$le=ity of international affairs. However, often the literatureloses sight of the %ig $icture. As 9ahl $oints out, norms and structure are com$limentary -9ahl, :;;;( ;;4. While some effort has %een made

to integrate the two into a coherent holistic e=$lanation -5neal et al., :;;T *oyle, @@RT 2+i$son, @@4, these efforts have a tentative Muality to them.'he 5neal et al article ty$ifies much of the literature( a large #regression finding that states characteri>ed %y economic interde$endence, constrained

$olitical actors, and norms of non#violent conflict resolution are $eaceful. 'here is very little in the $a$er, however, that sheds lighton how these factors affect the $acific outcome. *oyle7s @@R article, which %uilds off his $revious wor& on the democratic $eace-*oyle, :;2aT *oyle, :;2%T *oyle, :;24, li&ewise suggests a lin&age %etween norms and structure. n democracies, according to *oyle, re$resentation-structure4 should ensure that wars are fought only for li%eral -norms4 $ur$oses. However, *oyle s$ea&s only to this $oint very %riefly, and does so in the


various mechanisms or whether they actually o$erate in the ways *oyle indicates are left to others to resolve.+i$son argues that ]constitutional7 democracies are $eaceful with each other %ecause of sta%le contracting. 'hat is, through the contracting advantages ofdemocracy6regime sta%ility, audience costs, entrenched $rocedures6democracies are a%le to forge /relia%le, forward#loo&ing agreements that minimi>ethe dead#weight costs of direct military engagement0 -+i$son, @@( <4. 'his a$$roach, +i$son argues, ta&es account of %oth norms and structure. A



e=$lanations to account for how threat is constructed. 'he democratic $eace is at its core a%out threat construction of the lac&thereof. Structural e=$lanations have little to say on this $oint, mar&ing a significant wea&ness of thosea$$roaches. ormative arguments fare %etter, %ut do not go far enoughT their underlying assum$tion thatthreats are self#evident, informed %y democratic norms, assumes too much. 8oth e=$lanations, $ossi%ly arisingout of their %irth nested within large# studies, are overly deterministic. Security $olicy, indeed most state$olicies, arises out of a com$licated dynamic %etween elected officials, %ureaucracy, divisions of government,

$olitical $arties, and individuals. Efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through a singular cause, to thee=clusion of all others, are %ound to %e found wanting. Several scholars have to varying degrees indicated thatthe contention %etween structural and normative e=$lanations is a false one -)ay, :;;R4. 'hus, while the critiMue is not new,


utili>e case studies to e=$lore the democratic $eace. Unfortunately for advocates of the democratic $eace, it ma&es for difficult reading.=iii ; S&e$ticalof the claims of the democratic $eace, Elman claims that she and her coauthors are /gate crashers at thedemocratic $eace $arty0 -Elman, :;;?%( vii4. +i&e the other counterarguments to the democratic $eace, the volume focuses on thenormative and structural e=$lanations of the democratic $eace as the $rinci$al e=$lanatory mechanisms.'hroughout the nine cases, the monadic a$$roach to the democratic $eace is thoroughly disa%used and the

dyadic $ro$osition is significantly Mualified, although it should %e said that not all the cases focus on dyadic relations, or even

democracies. 5ne section of the %oo& focuses almost e=clusively on nondemocratic interactions, for e=am$le 3alin e=amines relations %etween raM andran from :;?R#:;2@ -3alin, :;;?4. 'he volume is not all critical, and some interesting new information is $roduced6nota%ly the suggestion that shareddemocratic governance is $articularly im$ortant to the United States in foreign $olicy ma&ing -)oc&, :;;?4. While Elman7s conclusions ta&e neorealisttheorists to tas& for outright dismissal of the democratic $eace regime6an irony given +ayne7s effort to do "ust that in the first case study of the %oo&6

she -rightly4 $oints out that the democratic $eace $rogram at the time oversim$lified e=$lanatory mechanismsand overreached on the resulting conclusions. n $articular, she notes the failure of democratic $eace research toa$$reciate the com$le=ity of democracy and its neglect of domestic democratic $olitics -Elman, :;;?a( <24.

Democrac" &oesnt work/Rab" an& Teorell (K[*e$artment of Political Science at +und University [['he Kuality of Governmentnstitute, *e$artment of Political Science at +und University



-ils and an, /A Kuality of Government PeaceO 8ringing the State 8ac& nto the Study of nter#State Armed!onflict0, 'he Kuality of Government E=$eriment, University of Gothen%urg, Se$tem%er @:@,htt$(CCwww.Mog.$ol.gu.seCwor&ingD$a$ersC@:@D@D)a%yD'eorell.$df4CCAW

'hat democracies do not wage wars against each other is undou%tedly one of the most widely acce$ted claims within the study of international relations. Pro%a%ly less well &nown is the fact that, when seen from the$ers$ective of the %roader literature on domestic conseMuences of democracy, the democratic $eace effect issomething of an e=ce$tion. *es$ite countless of studies, there are for e=am$le no ro%ust evidence lin&ingdemocracy to economic growth or even to $overty reduction or human develo$ment more generally -for an

overview, see )othstein and 'eorell @@24. 'rue, democracy usually comes out as a strong $redictor of humanrights, %ut democracy should argua%ly %e defined at least $artly in terms of &ey $ersonal integrity rights, so thisfinding is not all that sur$rising. 'his contrasts shar$ly with the more ro%ust findings lin&ing /goodgovernance0 and highMuality government institutions 6 other than democracy 6 to $referred social, economicand $olitical outcomes. 'o %egin with, economists have started to view dysfunctional government institutionsas the most serious o%stacle to economic develo$ment across the glo%e -e.g., Hall and ones :;;;T Acemoglu,ohnson, and )o%inson @@:, @@T Easterly and +evine @@T )odri&, Su%ramanian, and 're%%i @@<4.Unli&e democracy, the Muality of government -KoG4 factor has also %een argued to have su%stantial effects on anum%er of im$ortant noneconomic $henomena, %oth at the individual level 6 such as su%"ective ha$$iness-Frey and Stut>er @@@T Helliwell @@T 'avits @@?T Helliwell and Huang @@24, citi>en su$$ort forgovernment -Anderson and 'verdova @@T !hang and !hu @@4, and inter$ersonal trust -)othstein andUslaner @@?T )othstein and Stolle @@2T )othstein and Ee& @@;4 6 and at the societal level 6 such as

im$roved $u%lic health and environmental sustaina%ility -Holm%erg et al. @@;4, and state legitimacy -Gilley@@4. n this $a$er we attem$t to %ring the study of interstate conflict more in line with this more generalliterature. 3ore s$ecifically, drawing on dyadic 3ilitari>ed nterstate *is$utes data in :;2R#@@@, we showthat the im$act of Muality of government on the ris& of interstate conflict %y large amounts trum$s theinfluence of democracy. We thus find stronger evidence in favour of a Muality of government as com$ared to ademocratic $eace. 'hese results hold even under control for incom$lete democrati>ation, realist claims andgeogra$hic constraints. We also find that the relationshi$ %etween Muality of government and $eace is ro%ust tocontrols for the /ca$italist $eace0 -Gart>&e @@?4, an alternative account that in recent years has %een < $utforward as a challenge to democratic $eace theory. 'heoretically, we argue that the causal mechanismunderlying this finding is that Muality of government reduces information asymmetry among $otentially

warring $arties, im$roves their a%ility to communicate resolve, and to credi%ly commit to &ee$ to their$romises. 8y ta&ing into account %roader features of the state as a com$le= organi>ation, we conceive of theMuality of government $eace as an argument for %rining /the state %ac& in0 to the study of armed conflict andinternational relations more generally.

Democrac" failsKau&ience costs/ibler an& 6utchison ((6[*e$artment of Political Science at University of Ala%ama [[*e$artment ofPolitical Science at University of )hode sland-*ouglas and 3arc, /'erritorial ssues, Audience !osts, and the *emocratic Peace( 'he ssue of Salience0,Presented at the Annual 3eeting of the American Political Science Association, 3arch , @::,htt$(CCmywe%.uiowa.eduC%hlaiCwor&sho$Cgi%ler.$df4CCAW

5riginating with 'homas Schellingbs -:;@4 discussion of credi%le commitments, audience costs are the domestic $enalties -e.g. removal

from office4 that leaders fear they will suffer if they %ac& down from a $u%lic threat during an international crisisor dis$ute. 'he added cost associated with %ac&ing down adds credi%ility to leader threats, there%y $roviding a

more informative signal to other leaders -Fearon :;;<4. Audience costs have %een used to e=$lain a variety of international interactions,

%ut most studies have focused on the uniMue a%ility of democratic leaders to signal their intentions and theeffects this has on the $eace %etween democracies -Fearon :;;<, Eyerman and Hart :;;, Schult> @@:%,a, Partell and Palmer :;;;, Gel$i and

Griesdorf @@:4. When leaders hold $rivate information regarding their ca$a%ilities and resolve, coo$eration %ecomes challenging. State leaders have an incentive to %luff their ca$a%ilities or resolve in order to coercegreater concessions from the other actor. 'herefore, the a%ility to differentiate %etween chea$ tal& and credi%leinformation %ecomes critically im$ortant to %oth avoid losses and win concessions. While leaders can often deduce

relia%le assessments of o$$osing ca$a%ilities, understanding an o$$onents resolve is more difficult. How does one distinguish %etween aleader who is %luffing and one who is resolved to carry through with their threatO Similar to deterrence,sanctions, and alliances which also rely on credi%le commitments to %e effective, the &ey is to determine

whether the li&ely cost of %ac&ing down is higher than any e=$ected gains the leader may find in a reversal. f



the cost of %ac&ing down is higher, then the threat %ecomes more credi%le and can serve as an informativesignal of resolve. +eaders may sometimes engage in escalatory %ehavior in order to generate domesticaudience costs. 'he escalation signals their resolve, and the chec& of the audience adds credi%ility to the signal.'he intent of the escalation is to coerce the o$$osition into yielding the issue short of war. 'his ty$e ofescalatory %ehavior can, however, also lead to war when o$$osing leaders $u%licly constrain themselves from

%ac&ing down -Slantchev @@4. 'hus, leaders see&ing to avoid war will generate audience costs selectively and avoid

engaging in escalatory %ehavior with state leaders who also $ossess the means and motives to generate audience costs -Schult> @@:%4. 'his strategic logic serves as the theoretical foundation for a variety of em$irical regularities %ut es$ecially the findingsassociated with the democratic $eace -Fearon :;;<, Schult> @@:a, Gel$i and Griesdorf @@:4.

Democrac" failsKfra'ile states/Collier !6Professor of Economics at 5=ford University Economic *e$artment, *irector at the !entre forthe Study of African Economies, and Professorial Fellow of Saint Antony7s !ollege-Paul, /Why *emocracy Fails in Fragile States0, World 8an& nstitute, 3arch :, @@;,htt$(CCwe%.world%an&.orgCW8S'ECEL'E)A+CW8C@,,content3*9(@;;R;R$ageP9(@;@$iP9(@?RRtheSiteP9(:?;;,@@.html4CCAW

n outlining his %oo&7s central argument, he noted that many of the R2 countries that are home to one %illion of the world7s$oorest $eo$leBBthe I%ottom %illionIBBare una%le to $rovide their citi>ens with two vital $u%lic goods(security and accounta%ility . What causes this $ersistent failure, which ma&es these states fragile, and often rac&ed %y conflictO t %oils down to

a lac& of national leadershi$, he said. ia%le nation#states are led %y effective national elites that $roduce effective leaders

a%le to forge a sense of national identity and cohesion. Without effective national elites, however, !ollier said,ISu%national factions ta&e over.I !onflict often ensues as these factions fight over control of the state, es$eciallyif control %rings revenues from a vital resource such as oil. Poverty, stagnation, small si>e, and the e=istence ofresource rents thus com%ine to ma&e many of these states Istructurally insecure,I !ollier said. 'hat insecurity$rom$ts s$iraling military s$ending, which, rather than leading to national unification, has the o$$osite effect.

As a result, such states fail to deliver security to their citi>ens. As for the failure of such states7 governments to %e accounta%le, !ollier traces this to a lac& of alignment %etween the interests of elites and the larger $o$ulation.+ac& of accounta%ility matters to develo$ment, !ollier insisted, %ecause it means there are no chec&s and %alancesto inhi%it corru$tion. With corru$tion unchec&ed, the country7s develo$ment is undermined %y massive lossesof $otential revenue. Why *emocracy Fails 'he Muestion at the heart of Wars, Guns, and otes is, I Why has democracy so oftenfailed to deliver security and accounta%ility in fragile statesOI !ollier traces the answer to the grim reality that three illicitelectoral tacticsKbribin' voters% intimi&atin' voters% an& outri'ht ballot frau&Kare eBtremel"

effective at keepin' ba& lea&ers in power/ His data show that $olitical leaders who use these tactics hold$ower three times longer than those who don7t. Electoral contests marred %y such a%uses do not $roduce the$rinci$led leaders countries need. !ollier contrasted $ost#inde$endence governance in 9enya and 'an>ania( whilein 9enya, *aniel ara$ 3oi7s <#year rule was marred %y corru$tion and electoral mani$ulationT and 'an>aniahas en"oyed a remar&a%ly sta%le democracy than&s largely to the com$elling leadershi$ of ulius yerere, who,!ollier said, Iwas a%le to %uild a sense of national identity in 'an>ania.I

Democrac" &oes not create free&om/ Hieru !6Science Editor-'udor, /*emocracy *oes ot EMual Freedom0, Soft$edia, 5cto%er :, @@;,htt$(CCnews.soft$edia.comCnewsC*emocracy#*oes#ot#EMual#Freedom#:[email protected]

When loo&ing at totalitarian regimes, or at dictatorshi$s, its immediately a$$arent that $eo$le are free withinthe limits im$osed either %y the central, single#$arty government or %y the dictator, whatever the case may %e.n the case of fascist and communist states, this is most o%vious. State security -read( the security of the $arty and its ruler4

are the main concerns that authorities have. 'he economy almost always comes second, with the %est interests of the citi>ens coming in

third, and last. 'he thing a%out these regimes is that you, as an individual living within the state, &now where youstand. Jou do not e=$ect to have access to all the things you want, and are firmly aware that there will %econseMuences if you do certain things the governmentC$arty does not a$$rove of. Jou also &now that you areconstantly %eing monitored %y various /de$artments0 of the states security services. n former !ommunistcountries, such as )omania, the legacy left %ehind %y these services is so dar& that $eo$le even now, twodecades after the fall of the dictatorshi$, tend to cast out those $roven to have wor&ed for the state, s$ying andre$orting on everyone around them. So, if were to stretch the argument a %it, could say that a dictatorshi$ is morehonest to its citi>ens than a democratic state. 5f course, there will always %e $ro$aganda, whether %lac&, gray



or white, that will attem$t to $ersuade everyone they have as much freedom as $ossi%le. 'his almost never wor&s, as $eo$le immediately reali>e if they are held within certain limits. Additionally, one of the mainreasons that $ro$aganda e=ists in these state is to :4 control the information flow to the $o$ulation, and 4 to$ass the countries as %eacons of light in the struggle for eMual rights, or some other $rinci$le that sounds$leasant. 5ne of the issues that, ironically, $revent $eo$le from acMuiring true freedom, is the fact that few actually &now what the word means. At

some level, everyone &nows what it entails, %ut, if you want to o%tain true freedom, you need to &now what you are as&ingfor. Also, if youre not an anarchist -in the sense that you want freedom without any e=isting state4, then you need to ma&e the changes you

want within the confines of the laws. 'herefore, you need to %e a%le to define freedom accordingly. 5nedefinition is civil li%erty, as o$$osed to su%"ection to an ar%itrary or des$otic government. Another would %e

the a%sence of ceremony or reserve, or fran&ness of manner or s$eech. 5thers define freedom as the state of %eing free or at li%erty rather than in confinement or under $hysical restraint, whereas some %elieve theconce$t refers to the $ower to e=ercise choice and ma&e decisions without constraint from within or without

-autonomy, self#determination4. Also, as a word of advice, none of you should ever forget what 8en"amin Fran&lin rightfully said, /'hose willing togive u$ their freedom for safety deserve neither.0 And, unfortunately, this is $recisely what is going on in UnitedStates today . find the words of a certain user of the /s America FreeO0 %ulletin %oard es$ecially a$$ro$riate to illustrate this. He or she said that

/we are fighting e=tremism, %ut our ado$tion of e=tremists tactics of torture and mayhem is a defeat for ourFounding Fathers, and those who gave u$ their lives for +ife, li%erty and the $ursuit of ha$$iness. f George

Washington refused to torture when fighting with a ragtag army to esta%lish this great country why should wetorture when we have the greatest military machine the world has ever seenO0 Another user $osts /While say we have some

freedoms, we have %ecome entangled %y laws and government as well as the !hristian world view.0 Another one echoes the formers views, /'heXfreedom of choosing leaders isX more li&e theX freedom to choose %etween $reselected candidates. Preselected

%y whoO0 'hese are all legitimate Muestions, and a truly tragic thing is that they only a$$ear in such small %ulletin %oards, rather than %eing discussed on national television networ&s, during $rime#time. After all,discussions and de%ate are the %asis of democracy, rightO t would a$$ear that the similarities %etween the conce$t ofdemocracy , as illustrated in %oo&s, and the realities of modern#day US are not many. !ivil li%erties, which constitutethe foundation of the $olitical idea, are %ecoming all %ut e=tinct in the worlds most $owerful and /free0 nation.'hat is not to say $eo$le cannot argue against anything they want. 8ut, as they do that, rather than living freeof worries they will not %e $ersecuted for %eing different, they enter various /watch lists,0 com$iled %ynumerous federal agencies, such as the !entral ntelligence Agency, the Federal 8ureau of nvestigation, the8ureau of Alcohol, 'o%acco, Firearms and E=$losive, the ational Security Agency and so on. 'hese agencies,

which are $aid from ta=$ayers money, are %eing used to &ee$ a watchful eye on everything a $erson does. E#mail, nternet traffic, $hone calls and /old#school,0 $en#and#$a$er letters are %eing monitored, all in theinterest of national security.

Current-&a" &emocrac" tactics will never workKthe" onl" lea& to true &emocrac" &ownfall/;arrell" (6Winner of the !!A nternational !ritics Award, the Pascall Pri>e for !ritical Writing, and the3arion 3ahony Griffin AwardT columnist for the Sydney Morning Herald, a commentator on Australiantelevision and radio, and Ad"unct Associate Professor of Architecture at the University of Sydney -Eli>a%eth, /*emocracy # seeds of dou%t or seeds that will s$rout strongO0, ews and Features, Sydney3orning Herald, 5cto%er ?, @:@, +e=ise=is4CCAW

*emocracy was %orn with the seeds of its destruction in its mouth and, right now, were seeing them s$rout. ot

so dangerous really. ohn Adams said it two centuries ago( I *emocracy never lasts long. t soon wastes, e=hausts andmurders itself. 'here never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.I 3ay%e this is o%vious. *emocracy, asthe $olitics of desire, has $roved less ade$t at eradicating monarchy than at ma&ing fat little sovereigns of usall, $leasure#see&ing, $ain#intolerant. 5ur leaders are our creaturesT what we wont acce$t, they darent im$ose.

'hus, the Prime 3inister, ulia Gillard, cannot so much as mouth the words Icar%on ta=I. 5ur hedonism demands her cowardice. Andit is this hedonic addiction, this %ondage to small, salient desira%les such as %ig#screen tellies and 9uta holidaysthat has left democracy $araly>ed in the face of the ele$hant#si>e undesira%les such as climate change and theGF!. A century ago, America led the rising gra$h on this desire#democracy. ow it may %e leading the fall. -Although 8ra>il, its electoralcircus com$rising si= foot%allers, four singers, two stand#u$ comics, a cele%rity transse=ual, a catwal& model and an allegedly illiterate clown, might ta&ethe ca&e here.4 'his wasnt always so. Early on, as democracy grew from the hus& of aristocracy, it was still ca$a%le of im$osing the ta=es and statutes,the chec&s and %alances needed to constrain desire for the greater good. And $erha$s, over time, we were always going to vote away such constraints,

"ust as we voted away the constraints of theology in order to swim freely in the warm s$rings of li%eralism. 8ut now, as resentment %uilds at afree#mar&et oligarchy that not only allows itself to fail , and fail s$ectacularly, %ut e=$ects us $le%s to $ic& u$the ta%, a strange new cross#fertili>ation is a$$arent. ts a conservative $eo$le#$ower movement where $eo$lecherry#$ic& values from old#right and old#left to ma&e a new $olitical %lend. n 8ritain I)ed 'oryI Philli$ 8lond has %ecome

http://isamericafree.com/board




the $hiloso$her#&ing of this new synthesis, arguing that since :;<R Ili%eralism has undone %oth the left and the rightI %y ma&ingdesire central. 'he $resum$tion of self#interested individualism, he says, as $ro$agated %y )ousseau and Adam Smith, necessitated the nanny#state

in $lace of the $ersonal conscience. -8lond, one notes, has a %ac&ground in Anglican theology.4 For 8lond, then, Iindividualism and statism are two sides

of the same coinI. Parado=ically, he says, the $resum$tion of individual eMuality has led to Ia $erverse cor$oratismI on %oth sides, in which the IeMuality of o$$ortunityI doctrine has only entrenched and $er$etuated disadvantageuntil it seems almost genetic. 8lond has the ear of the 8ritish Prime 3inister, *avid !ameron, and is credited

with his I8ig SocietyI answer to %ig government. How that translates on the ground remains to %e seen. Some e=$ect little advance onnotorious Iget on yer %i&eI advice to the $oor from the 'hatcher#era minister orman 'e%%it, and 8lond fears that +a%ours Ed 3ili%and -eMui$$ed withhis own whis$ering $hiloso$her, I%lue +a%ourI academic 3aurice Glasman4 might ta&e this new middle ground first. 8ut at least theyre having thede%ate. At least its actually a%out ideas, and the arguments are genuinely thoughtful in a way that suggests theres life in democracy yet. Here, where

were entertaining the same weirdly refreshing mi= of values, it seems almost accidental. Perha$s it was no accident. Perha$s, faced with choosing %etween our own circus of semi#literate clowns, and confronting the terri%le irony that "ust when we get sufficiently fed#u$ with two#$arty $osturing to vote otherwise, the third $arty vanishes, we did the only reasona%le thing. We elevated a ruffian gang of inde$endents who may not amount to much asindividuals %ut "ointly render the system more honest and o$era%le than it has %een for years. 'his is not a IhungI $arliament. 'hats the loaded

terminology of a two#$arty orthodo=y. 'his $arliament # suddenly and une=$ectedly freed from the mor%idities of the whi$ system # is a wor&ing $arliament. So $erha$s its not democracy eating itself. Perha$s what were seeing is democracy feeding itselfT $erha$sthe seeds in its mouth were not those of destruction, %ut of renewalO Perha$s. 'his suggests well need to dro$ the %icameral system. )edesign our

$arliaments to %e not o$$ositional shoe#%o=es %ut round, may%e, or sMuare, with cross#%enches as long as the sides. Further, far from mandatingthe vote, restrict it, turning a duty into a $rivilege, earna%le %y demonstrating some sem%lance of &nowledge. -m thin&ing a really challenging test, li&e naming the de$uty P3.4 'his way we might ho$e for a tric&le#u$ effect, where%y asmarter constituency eventually demands and gets smarter $oliticians. 8ut how long have we gotO

Democrac" failsKprecon&itions &ictate/Sowell ((6)ose and 3ilton Friedman Senior Fellow, 'he Hoover nstitution at Stanford University -'homas, /nstant *emocracy *oesn7t Wor&0, Worldet*aily, 3arch :, @::,htt$(CCwww.wnd.comCinde=.$h$O$aged;:4AW


who are not 3uslims. Freedom and democracy cannot %e sim$ly conferred on anyone. 8oth have$reconditions, and even nations that are free and democratic today too& centuries to get there. f there wereever a time when $eo$le in Western democracies might %e e=cused for thin&ing that Western institutions couldsim$ly %e e=$orted to other nations to create new free democracies, that time has long $assed/ t is easy toe=$ort the outward sym%ols of democracy B constitutions, elections, $arliaments and the li&e B %ut you cannot

e=$ort the centuries of e=$erience and develo$ment that made those institutions wor&. All too often, e=$orteddemocratic institutions have meant Ione man, one vote B one time.I We should not assume that our ownfreedom and democratic form of government can %e ta&en for granted. 'hose who created this country did not.

As the !onstitution of the United States was %eing written, a lady as&ed 8en"amin Fran&lin what he and theother writers were creating. He re$lied, IA re$u%lic, madam B if you can &ee$ it.I Generations later, A%raham+incoln also $osed it as a Muestion, whether Igovernment of the $eo$le, %y the $eo$le and for the $eo$leI is onethat Ican long endure.I ust as there are nations that have not yet develo$ed the $reconditions for freedom anddemocracy, so there are some $eo$le within a nation who have not. 'he advance toward universal suffrage too&$lace slowly and in stages. 'oo many $eo$le, loo&ing %ac& today, see that as "ust %eing %iased against some$eo$le. 8ut $utting the fate of a nation in the hands of the illiterate masses of the $ast, many with noconce$tion of the com$le=ities of government, might have meant ris&ing the same fate of Ione man, one vote Bone time.I 'oday, we ta&e universal literacy for granted. 8ut literacy has not %een universal across all segments

of the American $o$ulation during all of the @th century. lliteracy was the norm in Al%ania as recently as the:;@s and in ndia in the second half of the @th century. 8are literacy is "ust one of the things needed to ma&edemocracy via%le. Without a sense of res$onsi%le citi>enshi$, voters can elect leaders who are not merelyincom$etent or corru$t, %ut even leaders with contem$t for the constitutional limitations on government$ower that $reserve the $eo$les freedom.

Democrac" is bein' resiste& now% an& an" efforts will failKAfrica proves/:cure (6ewswee& )e$orter s$eciali>ing in African Studies-ason, /Why *emocracy sn7t Wor&ing0, ewswee&, une :2, @:@,htt$(CCwww.newswee&.comC@:@C@C:2Cwhy#democracy#isn#t#wor&ing.html4CCAW





claimed R<R out of R<? seats in Parliament following a massive cam$aign of intimidation against o$$osition su$$orters. 3any of the $rotesters were $aid the eMuivalent of a day7s wage for a few hours of shouting against Human )ights Watch. 'hey wereem%lematic not only of Ethio$ia7s return to a one#$arty state, :; years after the fall of a communist regime, %utalso of a growing trend away from democracy in wide swaths of Africa. 'he trend includes not only $ariahstates such as Eritrea and Sudan, %ut &ey Western allies and ma"or reci$ients of foreign aid such as Ethio$ia,

Uganda, and 9enya. 'he 3o %rahim Foundation, which offers the world7s richest $ri>e $ac&age to Africanleaders who %oth hel$ their countries and $eacefully leave office, decided not to offer an award each of the lasttwo years. n )wanda, President Paul 9agame has %ecome a darling of the West for leading an economic renaissance in a nation traumati>ed %y the:;;@s genocide. 8ut in u$coming August elections, 9agame loo&s set to du$licate his im$lausi%ly high ;R $ercent victory in the last vote and is $ressingcharges against an o$$osition leader for /divisionism,0 namely down$laying the genocide. n Uganda, President Joweri 3useveni, who denounceddictatorshi$ in Africa when he too& $ower in :;2 and was seen as another great democratic ho$e, has said he7ll try to e=tend his <#year tenure in$residential elections ne=t year. n Ga%on and 'ogo, the deaths of long#serving autocrats 5mar 8ongo and Gnassing% Eyadma has meant elections in

which $ower was smoothly transferred6to their sons. *isastrous $olls in igeria and 9enya in @@? were worse than thosecountries7 $revious elections, and current trends show little ho$e for im$rovement. 3auritania, Guinea,3adagascar, and iger have all had cou$s since @@2, while Guinea#8issau has %een effectively ta&en over %ydrug cartels. Africa7s own institutions have %een una%le to halt the trend, which has gained s$eed since a $eriod of o$enness following the end of the

!old War. /'he democrati>ation $rocess on the continent is not faring very well,0 says ean Ping, the Ga%onesechairman of the African Union !ommission, which has overseen a host of Pan#African agreements ondemocracy and human rights that many mem%er states have either ignored or failed to ratify. /'he measuresthat we ta&e here are ta&en in a %id to ma&e sure that we move forward. 'he crises, they are re$eatingthemselves.0 n country after country, the reci$e for the new age of authoritarianism is the same( demoni>ationand criminal $rosecution of o$$osition leaders, dire warnings of ethnic conflict and chaos should the ruling$arty %e to$$led, stac&ing of electoral commissions, and the mammoth mo%ili>ation of security forces andgovernment resources on %ehalf of the $arty in $ower. /'he really $owerful governments learned how to doelections,0 says )ichard *owden, director of the +ondon#%ased )oyal African Society. 'hat7s not to say the continent doesn7t retain some %rights$ots. n Ghana, $residents have twice ste$$ed down to ma&e way for leaders from the o$$osition. *emocracy has flourished in 8otswana and 8enin, while regional giant South Africa continues to have a vi%rant o$$osition and free $ress des$ite the African ational !ongress7s dominance of $ost#a$artheid $olitics.

Their authors are biase&Kthe" omit important &ata% have biase& interpretations of&emocracies% an& over eBa''erate effects/

Soesilowati (6*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press-Sarti&a, /A !ritiMue of *emocratic Peace 'heory0, ournal of Society, !ulture, and Politics, ol.:, o.:,ovem%er :;, @:@, htt$(CCm&$.fisi$.unair.ac.idCinde=.$h$Oo$tioncomDcontentQviewarticleQid:<2(a#critiMue#of#democratic#$eace#theory#Qcatid<(m&$Qtemid4CCAW


says /'he statistical evidence that democracies do not fight each other seems im$ressive %ut in fact, it isinconclusive ...0 A num%er of critics suggest that the aggregate data is insufficient for the theory, since democracy is arelatively new $henomenon and interstate wars are generally rare occurrences. +ayne -:;;<(;4 e=$lains the a$$earance of

a large num%er of interactions with little or no conflict %etween democracies %ecause first, %etween :2:R and :;<R there were very few democraciesT second, wars are a relatively rare occurrenceT third, dyads are not created eMual tore$resent a case where there is a real $ossi%ility of two states going to war. Similarly, other critics of the democracy $eace

thesis address whether the statistics that show that democracies never -or rarely4 fight wars with each other are significant. S$iro -:;;<(R4 argues thatthe a%sence of wars %etween li%eral democracies is not a significant $attern for most of the $ast two centuries

%ecause the chance to go war among democracies is $redicted %y random. He claims that the chance that anygiven $air of states will %e at war at a given time is very low, and that there were few democracies anyway,$articularly %efore :;<R. !onseMuently, it is not sur$rising that dyads of democratic states have not gone to

war. Also, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R(:<4 assert that there is not a statistically significant difference in the $ro%a%ility of war %etween $airs of democracies and %etween $airs of other ty$es of $olities, e=ce$t in the years since :;<R. 'hey



$eace in Euro$e over the $ast <R years. 'hus, the rarity democracies %efore :;<R, rarity of war and the fact thatinternational system had %een guaranteed with inter#national system raises difficult Muestion of a$$ro$riate



statistical techniMues. Furthermore, most of the $ro$onents of the democratic $eace theory are %ias to theanomalous data which shows wars %etween democracies. 'hey will discard this anomalous case %y shifting thedefinitions of war and democracy. S$iro -:;;<4 claims that the $ro$onents of democratic $eace Muic&ly dismiss thisanomalous evidence %y showing that one of the states in Muestion was not inde$endent state or democracy, orthe conflict in Muestion was not a war. 'he $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory have cited many anomalousdata as /candidate0 -)ussett :;;4 or /e=ce$tion0 -)ay :;;R4 to show that some wars occur %etween democracies inorder to counter the arguments against the democratic $eace theory . For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;(:?4 lists : wars amongdemocracies from :2: to :;? and )ay -:;;R(24 lists more than :; wars among democracies countries, from the:?th century to the @th century . However, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 claim the e=ce$tion of wars among democracies

%y arguing that those countries failed to %e categori>ed as democratic countries or inter#national war. )ussett-:;;(:<4 is defining democracy as a regime in an inde$endent state that ensure full civil and economic li%erties( voting rights for a su%stantial fraction ociti>ens, $eaceful transfer of $owers and fair com$etition %etween $olitical grou$s. n the case of +e%anon versus srael in :;?, )ussett -:;;(:24 arguesthat srael failed to %e categori>ed as a democracy %ecause it was not $reviously inde$endent and had not yet held a national election. However,+e%anese decision ma&ers had over twenty#five years to see srael democracy at wor&. According to Elman -:;??(4( ational elections, $eacefultransfers of $ower %etween o$$osing $olitical grou$s, and civil rights were all well entrenched long %efore srael. srael can %e considered a democracy$rior to its inde$endence there was little reason for +e%anese leaders to thin& that srael would cease to $ractice the democratic $rocesses that it had

instituted since :;@. nde$endence. )esearchers of the $eriod agree that. n sum, %y shifting the definition of democracy and theassum$tion of statehood, democratic $eace $ro$onents are a%le to e=clude the anomalies and controversy ofthe data. 5ther democratic wars are omitted %y stressing one feature of states which loo&s contradictory to therestrictive value of democratic countries. Elman -:;;?(4 mentions that there is a tendency to overem$hasi>e states7autocratic features while ignoring their democratic ones. For e=am$le, )ussett -:;;4 and )ay -:;;R4 argue that the S$anish#

American War of :2;2 was not democracies war, %ecause S$anish was not im$lementing democracy $olicyma&ing. 8y contrast, critics argue that S$ain had already constituted some democratic $rocedures, the casecounts as disconfirming evidence -+ayne, :;;<4. Similarly, critics maintain that German demonstrated democraticfeature and conclude that the case of World War , Germany versus Western *emocracies, as a democracies

war. However, the $ro$onents of democratic $eace %elieve that it is failed to %e categori>ed as a democracies war %y $ointing autocratic as$ect of m$erial German. 5n the other hand, the $ossi%ility always e=ists that ademocracy will revert to an authoritarian state, %ecause there is relative $ower among li%eral democracies-3ershmeir, :;;@(R@4. 'herefore, it is a $ro%lem in the argument of the $ro$onent of democratic $eace theory totreat the continuity of democratic features. 3oreover, the restriction of the definition of war allows the $ossi%ilityto e=clude the argument of wars among democracies. )ussett -:;;(:4 refers to Small and Singer to inter$ret the wars as a conflict

with :@@@ %attle deaths. He argues that war %etween Finland and the Western allies is no record of com%at andcausalities %etween them, and in the Si= *ay War of :;?, +e%anon $artici$ated in com%at only %y sending afew aircraft into srael airs$ace. 'hus, these cases are e=cluded from the criteria of :@@@ %attle of fatalities.

However, according to S$iro -:;;<(R;4 defining war in this way allows democratic $eace $ro$onents to omit the case. 'his

is %ecause highly su%"ective "udgments %y which varia%les are coded in data sets have significant and im$ortanteffects on the results yielded %y analysis of those data. n sum, democratic $eace $ro$onents are ar%itrary intheir dismissal of cases that theory fails to account for.

Democracies can an& &o 'o to war with each other/Soesilowati (6*e$artment of nternational )elations at FSP University Press-Sarti&a, /A !ritiMue of *emocratic Peace 'heory0, ournal of Society, !ulture, and Politics, ol.:, o.:,ovem%er :;, @:@, htt$(CCm&$.fisi$.unair.ac.idCinde=.$h$Oo$tioncomDcontentQviewarticleQid:<2(a#critiMue#of#democratic#$eace#theory#Qcatid<(m&$Qtemid4CCAW

However, any causal e=$lanation of democratic $eace thesis that shows a $ositive relationshi$ %etweendemocracy and $eace that has %een given %y $ro$onents of democratic $eace theory is s$urious and

coincidental. +ayne -:;;<4 maintains that the historical record concludes that in these cases democracies have avoided war, %ut there is no evidence that they did so %ecause they shared democratic norms. nstead, the democracies %ehaved in a manner $redicted %y realism( they acted on the %asis of their calculation of national interestT they$aid attention to strategic concerns, $articularly the distri%ution of military ca$a%ilitiesT and used threats whentheir vital interest were "eo$ardi>ed. Furthermore, Far%er and Gowa -:;;R4 argue that neither the normative nor thestructural e=$lanation of the democratic $eace is $ersuasive. 'hey argue that the a%sence of war %etweendemocracies during this $eriod reflects their common interest in allying against the Soviet Union, not any$eculiar features of their regime ty$e. Similarly, 5ren -:;;R4 contends that $airs of countries do remain at $eace %ecause they regard oneanother as democracies. He mentions that /the reason why the United States a$$ears not to fight ]our &ind7 is not that o%"ective li&eness su%stantiallyaffects war $ro$ensity, %ut rather that we su%tly redefine ]our &ind7.0 'hus, countries that have an interest remaining at $eace and to define one anotheras democracies. Furthermore, 3enshemeir -:;;@(<;4 claims that the argument of democratic $eace theory that authoritarian leaders are more $rone to




willing than authoritarian leaders to fight wars. Another argument, which em$hasi>es the transnational res$ectfor democratic rights among democracies, rests on wea&er factors or reasons for not going or going to war.'hese reasons are usually overridden %y other factors such as nationalism and religious fundamentalism


and interest %ase attri%ution of foreign $olicy conduct. 'here are, however, other e=$lanations of why certain countries do notto go war. Alliances and distance are included among the contested reasons against the democratic $eace thesis-Peterson :;;?4. Alliances %i$olarity, multilarity, with their regulations, will ham$er countries from going war.

Furthermore, if they are geogra$hically so far a$art and lac& $ower $ro"ection ca$a%ilities, they are $hysicallyinca$a%le of fighting each other.



democratic $eace $henomenon e=ists -what call the ]statistical democratic $eace7N% b" their ver" nature the" are able to&emonstrate onl" correlation% not causation . ot sur$risingly, what effort these studies did ma&e

towards understanding and e=$laining the democratic $eace focused on causes6norms and institutions -3ao>

and )ussett, :;;46that could %e Muantified, either directly or %y $ro=y. Jet the Muantitative nature of the studiesdoes not ena%le access to causal forces. 'he mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace remained shrouded inshadow. 'he end of the !old War and the su%seMuent -at least rhetorical4 inclusion of the democratic $eace inU.S. foreign $olicy means the field, now more than ever, needs to develo$ a %etter understanding of themechanisms within -and without4 democracies that generate the o%served $eace. n the $rocess of e=$anding our inMuiry

of the mechanisms %ehind the democratic $eace, we will actually generate a new, %roader field of study( democratic security. 'his review derives itsem$hasis on mechanisms from the scholarshi$ on scientific realism -8has&ar, :;?RT Harr and 3adden, :;?RT 3anicas, @@4 and 3ario 8unge7ssystemism $hiloso$hy -8unge, :;;T 8unge, @@@T 8unge, @@<%4. While the social sciences have largely %een o%livious, $hiloso$hers of science haveMuestioned the Humean, deductive#nonological model of science. 'hese Muestions have given rise to a model of science focused on $rocesses andmechanisms( /the real goal of science is neither the e=$lanation of events nor the e=$lanation of $atterns, though this idea catches dome of the truth ofthe matter. )ather, it has as its goal an understanding of the fundamental $rocesses of nature0 -3anicas, @@( :<4. E=$lanation, then, /reMuires thatthere is a Ireal connection,I a generative ne=us that $roduced or :%rought a%out the event -or $attern4 to %e e=$lained0 -3anicas, @@( @4.

Accordingly, correlation on its own cannot serve as e=$lanation -much less understanding4 %ecause it does not

allow the analyst access to the mechanisms at $lay( what causes what and how. 'he ongoing focus %y socialscientists on covering laws thus %etrays a romantic understanding of science that is not only not what $hysicalscientists do, %ut that is fatally flawed as a mode of intellectual inMuiry. 8unge li&ewise em$hasi>es the im$ortance ofmechanisms in systemism, his $hiloso$hy of social science. 8unge argues that the study of the social sciences is the study of social systems and thusreMuires a ]]systemist77 a$$roach over traditional a$$roaches that com$artmentali>e social studies -holism, for e=am$le structural realism, versusindividualism, for e=am$le rational choice4. 'he central focus of the systemist a$$roach is the human system( the interaction %etween individuals andsociety. E=$lanation lin&s rather than se$arates the structural and individual levels.

Democrac" &oesnt workKthe &emocratic peace theor" is oversimplifie&/6a"es ((6Ph* at Georgia nstitute of 'echnology -arrod, /'he *emocratic Peace and the ew Evolution of an 5ld dea0, Euro$ean ournal of nternational)elations, une :@, @::, htt$(CCe"t.sage$u%.comC4CCAW

A %roader critiMue of the efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through structural and normative mechanisms

lies in the artificial se$aration of the two. !learly the se$aration serves analytical $ur$oses( it serves as tool forisolating dynamics that would %e lost in the com$le=ity of international affairs. However, often the literatureloses sight of the %ig $icture. As 9ahl $oints out, norms and structure are com$limentary -9ahl, :;;;( ;;4. While some effort has %een made

to integrate the two into a coherent holistic e=$lanation -5neal et al., :;;T *oyle, @@RT 2+i$son, @@4, these efforts have a tentative Muality to them.'he 5neal et al article ty$ifies much of the literature( a large #regression finding that states characteri>ed %y economic interde$endence, constrained

$olitical actors, and norms of non#violent conflict resolution are $eaceful. 'here is very little in the $a$er, however, that sheds lighton how these factors affect the $acific outcome. *oyle7s @@R article, which %uilds off his $revious wor& on the democratic $eace-*oyle, :;2aT *oyle, :;2%T *oyle, :;24, li&ewise suggests a lin&age %etween norms and structure. n democracies, according to *oyle, re$resentation-structure4 should ensure that wars are fought only for li%eral -norms4 $ur$oses. However, *oyle s$ea&s only to this $oint very %riefly, and does so in the


various mechanisms or whether they actually o$erate in the ways *oyle indicates are left to others to resolve.

+i$son argues that ]constitutional7 democracies are $eaceful with each other %ecause of sta%le contracting. 'hat is, through the contracting advantages of



democracy6regime sta%ility, audience costs, entrenched $rocedures6democracies are a%le to forge /relia%le, forward#loo&ing agreements that minimi>ethe dead#weight costs of direct military engagement0 -+i$son, @@( <4. 'his a$$roach, +i$son argues, ta&es account of %oth norms and structure. A



e=$lanations to account for how threat is constructed. 'he democratic $eace is at its core a%out threat construction of the lac&

thereof. Structural e=$lanations have little to say on this $oint, mar&ing a significant wea&ness of thosea$$roaches. ormative arguments fare %etter, %ut do not go far enoughT their underlying assum$tion thatthreats are self#evident, informed %y democratic norms, assumes too much. 8oth e=$lanations, $ossi%ly arisingout of their %irth nested within large# studies, are overly deterministic. Security $olicy, indeed most state$olicies, arises out of a com$licated dynamic %etween elected officials, %ureaucracy, divisions of government,$olitical $arties, and individuals. Efforts to e=$lain the democratic $eace through a singular cause, to thee=clusion of all others, are %ound to %e found wanting. Several scholars have to varying degrees indicated thatthe contention %etween structural and normative e=$lanations is a false one -)ay, :;;R4. 'hus, while the critiMue is not new,


utili>e case studies to e=$lore the democratic $eace. Unfortunately for advocates of the democratic $eace, it ma&es for difficult reading.=iii ; S&e$ticalof the claims of the democratic $eace, Elman claims that she and her coauthors are /gate crashers at thedemocratic $eace $arty0 -Elman, :;;?%( vii4. +i&e the other counterarguments to the democratic $eace, the volume focuses on thenormative and structural e=$lanations of the democratic $eace as the $rinci$al e=$lanatory mechanisms.'hroughout the nine cases, the monadic a$$roach to the democratic $eace is thoroughly disa%used and thedyadic $ro$osition is significantly Mualified, although it should %e said that not all the cases focus on dyadic relations, or even

democracies. 5ne section of the %oo& focuses almost e=clusively on nondemocratic interactions, for e=am$le 3alin e=amines relations %etween raM andran from :;?R#:;2@ -3alin, :;;?4. 'he volume is not all critical, and some interesting new information is $roduced6nota%ly the suggestion that shareddemocratic governance is $articularly im$ortant to the United States in foreign $olicy ma&ing -)oc&, :;;?4. While Elman7s conclusions ta&e neorealisttheorists to tas& for outright dismissal of the democratic $eace regime6an irony given +ayne7s effort to do "ust that in the first case study of the %oo&6

she -rightly4 $oints out that the democratic $eace $rogram at the time oversim$lified e=$lanatory mechanismsand overreached on the resulting conclusions. n $articular, she notes the failure of democratic $eace research toa$$reciate the com$le=ity of democracy and its neglect of domestic democratic $olitics -Elman, :;;?a( <24.

Democrac" &oesnt work/Rab" an& Teorell (K[*e$artment of Political Science at +und University [['he Kuality of Governmentnstitute, *e$artment of Political Science at +und University -ils and an, /A Kuality of Government PeaceO 8ringing the State 8ac& nto the Study of nter#State Armed!onflict0, 'he Kuality of Government E=$eriment, University of Gothen%urg, Se$tem%er @:@,htt$(CCwww.Mog.$ol.gu.seCwor&ingD$a$ersC@:@D@D)a%yD'eorell.$df4CCAW

'hat democracies do not wage wars against each other is undou%tedly one of the most widely acce$ted claims within the study of international relations. Pro%a%ly less well &nown is the fact that, when seen from the$ers$ective of the %roader literature on domestic conseMuences of democracy, the democratic $eace effect issomething of an e=ce$tion. *es$ite countless of studies, there are for e=am$le no ro%ust evidence lin&ingdemocracy to economic growth or even to $overty reduction or human develo$ment more generally -for an

overview, see )othstein and 'eorell @@24. 'rue, democracy usually comes out as a strong $redictor of humanrights, %ut democracy should argua%ly %e defined at least $artly in terms of &ey $ersonal integrity rights, so thisfinding is not all that sur$rising. 'his contrasts shar$ly with the more ro%ust findings lin&ing /goodgovernance0 and highMuality government institutions 6 other than democracy 6 to $referred social, economicand $olitical outcomes. 'o %egin with, economists have started to view dysfunctional government institutionsas the most serious o%stacle to economic develo$ment across the glo%e -e.g., Hall and ones :;;;T Acemoglu,ohnson, and )o%inson @@:, @@T Easterly and +evine @@T )odri&, Su%ramanian, and 're%%i @@<4.Unli&e democracy, the Muality of government -KoG4 factor has also %een argued to have su%stantial effects on anum%er of im$ortant noneconomic $henomena, %oth at the individual level 6 such as su%"ective ha$$iness-Frey and Stut>er @@@T Helliwell @@T 'avits @@?T Helliwell and Huang @@24, citi>en su$$ort forgovernment -Anderson and 'verdova @@T !hang and !hu @@4, and inter$ersonal trust -)othstein andUslaner @@?T )othstein and Stolle @@2T )othstein and Ee& @@;4 6 and at the societal level 6 such as



im$roved $u%lic health and environmental sustaina%ility -Holm%erg et al. @@;4, and state legitimacy -Gilley@@4. n this $a$er we attem$t to %ring the study of interstate conflict more in line with this more generalliterature. 3ore s$ecifically, drawing on dyadic 3ilitari>ed nterstate *is$utes data in :;2R#@@@, we showthat the im$act of Muality of government on the ris& of interstate conflict %y large amounts trum$s theinfluence of democracy. We thus find stronger evidence in favour of a Muality of government as com$ared to ademocratic $eace. 'hese results hold even under control for incom$lete democrati>ation, realist claims andgeogra$hic constraints. We also find that the relationshi$ %etween Muality of government and $eace is ro%ust tocontrols for the /ca$italist $eace0 -Gart>&e @@?4, an alternative account that in recent years has %een < $utforward as a challenge to democratic $eace theory. 'heoretically, we argue that the causal mechanism

underlying this finding is that Muality of government reduces information asymmetry among $otentially warring $arties, im$roves their a%ility to communicate resolve, and to credi%ly commit to &ee$ to their$romises. 8y ta&ing into account %roader features of the state as a com$le= organi>ation, we conceive of theMuality of government $eace as an argument for %rining /the state %ac& in0 to the study of armed conflict andinternational relations more generally.

Democrac" failsKau&ience costs/ibler an& 6utchison ((6[*e$artment of Political Science at University of Ala%ama [[*e$artment ofPolitical Science at University of )hode sland-*ouglas and 3arc, /'erritorial ssues, Audience !osts, and the *emocratic Peace( 'he ssue of Salience0,Presented at the Annual 3eeting of the American Political Science Association, 3arch , @::,htt$(CCmywe%.uiowa.eduC%hlaiCwor&sho$Cgi%ler.$df4CCAW

5riginating with 'homas Schellingbs -:;@4 discussion of credi%le commitments, audience costs are the domestic $enalties -e.g. removal

from office4 that leaders fear they will suffer if they %ac& down from a $u%lic threat during an international crisisor dis$ute. 'he added cost associated with %ac&ing down adds credi%ility to leader threats, there%y $roviding amore informative signal to other leaders -Fearon :;;<4. Audience costs have %een used to e=$lain a variety of international interactions,

%ut most studies have focused on the uniMue a%ility of democratic leaders to signal their intentions and theeffects this has on the $eace %etween democracies -Fearon :;;<, Eyerman and Hart :;;, Schult> @@:%,a, Partell and Palmer :;;;, Gel$i and

Griesdorf @@:4. When leaders hold $rivate information regarding their ca$a%ilities and resolve, coo$eration %ecomes challenging. State leaders have an incentive to %luff their ca$a%ilities or resolve in order to coercegreater concessions from the other actor. 'herefore, the a%ility to differentiate %etween chea$ tal& and credi%leinformation %ecomes critically im$ortant to %oth avoid losses and win concessions. While leaders can often deduce

relia%le assessments of o$$osing ca$a%ilities, understanding an o$$onents resolve is more difficult. How does one distinguish %etween a

leader who is %luffing and one who is resolved to carry through with their threatO Similar to deterrence,sanctions, and alliances which also rely on credi%le commitments to %e effective, the &ey is to determine whether the li&ely cost of %ac&ing down is higher than any e=$ected gains the leader may find in a reversal. fthe cost of %ac&ing down is higher, then the threat %ecomes more credi%le and can serve as an informativesignal of resolve. +eaders may sometimes engage in escalatory %ehavior in order to generate domesticaudience costs. 'he escalation signals their resolve, and the chec& of the audience adds credi%ility to the signal.'he intent of the escalation is to coerce the o$$osition into yielding the issue short of war. 'his ty$e ofescalatory %ehavior can, however, also lead to war when o$$osing leaders $u%licly constrain themselves from

%ac&ing down -Slantchev @@4. 'hus, leaders see&ing to avoid war will generate audience costs selectively and avoid

engaging in escalatory %ehavior with state leaders who also $ossess the means and motives to generate audience costs -Schult> @@:%4. 'his strategic logic serves as the theoretical foundation for a variety of em$irical regularities %ut es$ecially the findingsassociated with the democratic $eace -Fearon :;;<, Schult> @@:a, Gel$i and Griesdorf @@:4.

Democrac" failsKfra'ile states/Collier !6Professor of Economics at 5=ford University Economic *e$artment, *irector at the !entre forthe Study of African Economies, and Professorial Fellow of Saint Antony7s !ollege-Paul, /Why *emocracy Fails in Fragile States0, World 8an& nstitute, 3arch :, @@;,htt$(CCwe%.world%an&.orgCW8S'ECEL'E)A+CW8C@,,content3*9(@;;R;R$ageP9(@;@$iP9(@?RRtheSiteP9(:?;;,@@.html4CCAW

n outlining his %oo&7s central argument, he noted that many of the R2 countries that are home to one %illion of the world7s$oorest $eo$leBBthe I%ottom %illionIBBare una%le to $rovide their citi>ens with two vital $u%lic goods(security and accounta%ility . What causes this $ersistent failure, which ma&es these states fragile, and often rac&ed %y conflictO t %oils down to



a lac& of national leadershi$, he said. ia%le nation#states are led %y effective national elites that $roduce effective leadersa%le to forge a sense of national identity and cohesion. Without effective national elites, however, !ollier said,

ISu%national factions ta&e over.I !onflict often ensues as these factions fight over control of the state, es$eciallyif control %rings revenues from a vital resource such as oil. Poverty, stagnation, small si>e, and the e=istence ofresource rents thus com%ine to ma&e many of these states Istructurally insecure,I !ollier said. 'hat insecurity$rom$ts s$iraling military s$ending, which, rather than leading to national unification, has the o$$osite effect.

As a result, such states fail to deliver security to their citi>ens. As for the failure of such states7 governments to %e accounta%le, !ollier traces this to a lac& of alignment %etween the interests of elites and the larger $o$ulation.+ac& of accounta%ility matters to develo$ment, !ollier insisted, %ecause it means there are no chec&s and %alances

to inhi%it corru$tion. With corru$tion unchec&ed, the country7s develo$ment is undermined %y massive lossesof $otential revenue. Why *emocracy Fails 'he Muestion at the heart of Wars, Guns, and otes is, I Why has democracy so oftenfailed to deliver security and accounta%ility in fragile statesOI !ollier traces the answer to the grim reality that three illicitelectoral tacticsKbribin' voters% intimi&atin' voters% an& outri'ht ballot frau&Kare eBtremel"effective at keepin' ba& lea&ers in power/ His data show that $olitical leaders who use these tactics hold$ower three times longer than those who don7t. Electoral contests marred %y such a%uses do not $roduce the$rinci$led leaders countries need. !ollier contrasted $ost#inde$endence governance in 9enya and 'an>ania( whilein 9enya, *aniel ara$ 3oi7s <#year rule was marred %y corru$tion and electoral mani$ulationT and 'an>aniahas en"oyed a remar&a%ly sta%le democracy than&s largely to the com$elling leadershi$ of ulius yerere, who,!ollier said, Iwas a%le to %uild a sense of national identity in 'an>ania.I

Democrac" &oes not create free&om/

Hieru !6Science Editor-'udor, /*emocracy *oes ot EMual Freedom0, Soft$edia, 5cto%er :, @@;,htt$(CCnews.soft$edia.comCnewsC*emocracy#*oes#ot#EMual#Freedom#:[email protected]

When loo&ing at totalitarian regimes, or at dictatorshi$s, its immediately a$$arent that $eo$le are free withinthe limits im$osed either %y the central, single#$arty government or %y the dictator, whatever the case may %e.n the case of fascist and communist states, this is most o%vious. State security -read( the security of the $arty and its ruler4

are the main concerns that authorities have. 'he economy almost always comes second, with the %est interests of the citi>ens coming in

third, and last. 'he thing a%out these regimes is that you, as an individual living within the state, &now where youstand. Jou do not e=$ect to have access to all the things you want, and are firmly aware that there will %econseMuences if you do certain things the governmentC$arty does not a$$rove of. Jou also &now that you areconstantly %eing monitored %y various /de$artments0 of the states security services. n former !ommunist

countries, such as )omania, the legacy left %ehind %y these services is so dar& that $eo$le even now, twodecades after the fall of the dictatorshi$, tend to cast out those $roven to have wor&ed for the state, s$ying andre$orting on everyone around them. So, if were to stretch the argument a %it, could say that a dictatorshi$ is morehonest to its citi>ens than a democratic state. 5f course, there will always %e $ro$aganda, whether %lac&, grayor white, that will attem$t to $ersuade everyone they have as much freedom as $ossi%le. 'his almost never

wor&s, as $eo$le immediately reali>e if they are held within certain limits. Additionally, one of the mainreasons that $ro$aganda e=ists in these state is to :4 control the information flow to the $o$ulation, and 4 to$ass the countries as %eacons of light in the struggle for eMual rights, or some other $rinci$le that sounds$leasant. 5ne of the issues that, ironically, $revent $eo$le from acMuiring true freedom, is the fact that few actually &now what the word means. At

some level, everyone &nows what it entails, %ut, if you want to o%tain true freedom, you need to &now what you are as&ingfor. Also, if youre not an anarchist -in the sense that you want freedom without any e=isting state4, then you need to ma&e the changes you

want within the confines of the laws. 'herefore, you need to %e a%le to define freedom accordingly. 5nedefinition is civil li%erty, as o$$osed to su%"ection to an ar%itrary or des$otic government. Another would %ethe a%sence of ceremony or reserve, or fran&ness of manner or s$eech. 5thers define freedom as the state of

%eing free or at li%erty rather than in confinement or under $hysical restraint, whereas some %elieve theconce$t refers to the $ower to e=ercise choice and ma&e decisions without constraint from within or without

-autonomy, self#determination4. Also, as a word of advice, none of you should ever forget what 8en"amin Fran&lin rightfully said, /'hose willing togive u$ their freedom for safety deserve neither.0 And, unfortunately, this is $recisely what is going on in UnitedStates today . find the words of a certain user of the /s America FreeO0 %ulletin %oard es$ecially a$$ro$riate to illustrate this. He or she said that

/we are fighting e=tremism, %ut our ado$tion of e=tremists tactics of torture and mayhem is a defeat for ourFounding Fathers, and those who gave u$ their lives for +ife, li%erty and the $ursuit of ha$$iness. f George

Washington refused to torture when fighting with a ragtag army to esta%lish this great country why should wetorture when we have the greatest military machine the world has ever seenO0 Another user $osts /While say we have some

freedoms, we have %ecome entangled %y laws and government as well as the !hristian world view.0 Another one echoes the formers views, /'heX





freedom of choosing leaders isX more li&e theX freedom to choose %etween $reselected candidates. Preselected %y whoO0 'hese are all legitimate Muestions, and a truly tragic thing is that they only a$$ear in such small %ulletin %oards, rather than %eing discussed on national television networ&s, during $rime#time. After all,discussions and de%ate are the %asis of democracy, rightO t would a$$ear that the similarities %etween the conce$t ofdemocracy , as illustrated in %oo&s, and the realities of modern#day US are not many. !ivil li%erties, which constitutethe foundation of the $olitical idea, are %ecoming all %ut e=tinct in the worlds most $owerful and /free0 nation.'hat is not to say $eo$le cannot argue against anything they want. 8ut, as they do that, rather than living freeof worries they will not %e $ersecuted for %eing different, they enter various /watch lists,0 com$iled %ynumerous federal agencies, such as the !entral ntelligence Agency, the Federal 8ureau of nvestigation, the

8ureau of Alcohol, 'o%acco, Firearms and E=$losive, the ational Security Agency and so on. 'hese agencies, which are $aid from ta=$ayers money, are %eing used to &ee$ a watchful eye on everything a $erson does. E#mail, nternet traffic, $hone calls and /old#school,0 $en#and#$a$er letters are %eing monitored, all in theinterest of national security.



US-China #ar

)o China war - US militar" &eters itRoss% ! B $rofessor of $olitical science at 8oston !ollege-)o%ert, 'he ational nterest, /3yth0, ;C:, htt$(CCnationalinterest.orgCgreatde%ateCdragonsCmyth#2:;4

Jet !hina does not $ose a threat to Americas vital security interests today, tomorrow or at any time in the near future. eitheralarm nor e=aggerated assessments of contem$orary !hinas relative ca$a%ilities and the im$act of !hinese defense moderni>ation on U.S. security

interests in East Asia is needed %ecause, des$ite !hinas military advances, it has not develo$ed the necessary technologies to

constitute a grave threat. 8ei"ings strategic advances do not reMuire a ma"or change in Washingtons defense or regional security $olicy, or inU.S. $olicy toward !hina. )ather, ongoing American confidence in its ca$a%ilities and in the strength of its regional $artnershi$s allows the United States

to en"oy %oth e=tensive military and di$lomatic coo$eration with !hina while it consolidates its regional security interests. 'he !hina threat is

sim$ly vastly overrated. A3E)!AS 'A+ security interests, including in East Asia, are all in the maritime regions. With su$eriormaritime $ower, the United States can not only dominate regional sea#lanes %ut also guarantee a favora%le

%alance of $ower that $revents the emergence of a regional hegemon. And des$ite !hinas military advances and

its challenge to Americas a%ility to $ro"ect its $ower in the region, the United States can %e confident in its a%ility to retain maritimedominance well into the twenty#first century.

)o China war – China a&vancin' but not in ke" areasRoss% ! B $rofessor of $olitical science at 8oston !ollege

-)o%ert, 'he ational nterest, /3yth0, ;C:, htt$(CCnationalinterest.orgCgreatde%ateCdragonsCmyth#2:;4

East Asia $ossesses $lentiful offshore assets that ena%le the United States to maintain a ro%ust military $resence, to contend with a rising !hina and tomaintain a favora%le %alance of $ower. 'he U.S. alliance with a$an and its close strategic $artnershi$ with Singa$ore $rovide Washington with &eynaval and air facilities essential to regional $ower $ro"ection. 'he United States also has develo$ed strategic coo$eration with 3alaysia, ndonesia andthe Phili$$ines. Each country $ossesses significant $ort facilities that can contri%ute to U.S. ca$a%ilities during $eriods of heightened tension, whether it %e over 'aiwan or orth 9orea. 'he United States develo$ed and sustained its strategic $artnershi$s with East Asias maritime countries and maintainedthe %alance of $ower %oth during and after the cold war %ecause of its overwhelming naval su$eriority. Americas $ower#$ro"ection ca$a%ility hasassured U.S. strategic $artners that they can de$end on the United States to deter another great $ower from attac&ing themT and, should war ensue, thatthey would incur minimal costs. 'his American security guarantee is as ro%ust and credi%le as ever. 'he critical factor in assessing the moderni>ation ofthe P+As military forces is thus whether !hina is on the verge of challenging U.S. deterrence and develo$ing war#winning ca$a%ilities to such a degree

that East Asias maritime countries would Muestion the value of their strategic alignment with the United States. 8ut, though !hinasca$a%ilities are increasing, in no way do they challenge U.S. su$remacy. Americas maritime security is %asednot only on its su$erior surface fleet, which ena%les it to $ro"ect air$ower into distant regions, %ut also on its su%surface shi$s,

which $rovide secure IstealthI $latforms for retaliatory stri&es, and its advanced comman&% control% communications%computers% intelli'ence% surveillance an& reconnaissance -!<S)4 ca$a%ilities. n each of these areas,

!hina is far from successfully $osing any &ind of serious immediate challenge. !HA S %uying and %uilding a %ettermaritime ca$a%ility. However, the net effect of !hinas naval advances on U.S. maritime su$eriority is negligi%le. Since theearly :;;@s#es$ecially later in the decade as the 'aiwan conflict escalated and following the :;; U.S.#!hina 'aiwan Strait confrontation#8ei"ing focusedits maritime#acMuisitions $rogram $rimarily on the $urchase of modern su%marines to contri%ute to an access#denial ca$a%ility that could limit U.S.o$erations in a 'aiwan contingency. t $urchased twelve 9ilo#class su%marines from )ussia and it has develo$ed its own Song#class and Juan#classmodels. 'hese highly ca$a%le diesel su%marines are difficult to detect. n addition, !hina com$lemented its su%marine ca$a%ility with a coastalde$loyment of )ussian Su#? and Su#@ aircraft and over one thousand five hundred )ussian surface#to#air missiles. 'he com%ined effect of thesede$loyments has %een greater !hinese a%ility to target an American aircraft carrier and an im$roved a%ility to deny U.S. shi$s and aircraft access to

!hinese coastal waters. ndeed, American $ower#$ro"ection ca$a%ilities in East Asia are more vulnera%le now than atany time since the end of the cold war. We can no longer guarantee the security of a carrier. evertheless, the U.S. avy is acutelyaware of !hinese advances and is res$onding with measures to minimi>e the vulnera%ility of aircraft carriers. *ue to %etter funding, im$roved technologies and $eacetime surveillance of !hinese su%marines, the American carrier stri&e grou$s a%ility to trac& them andthe U.S. avys antisu%marine ca$a%ilities are constantly im$roving. 'he U.S. stri&e grou$s counter#electronic#warfare ca$a%ilities can also interfere with the P+A avys reconnaissance a%ility. m$roved !hinese ca$a%ilities com$licate U.S. naval o$erations and reMuire greater caution in o$erating anaircraft carrier near the !hinese coast, $articularly in the case of a conflict over 'aiwan. A carrier stri&e force may well have to follow a less direct route

into the area and maintain a greater distance from !hinas coast to reduce its vulnera%ility to !hinese ca$a%ilities. 8ut such com$lications to U.S.o$erations do not significantly degrade Washingtons a%ility to $ro"ect su$erior $ower into maritime theaters . 'heUnited States still $ossesses the only $ower#$ro"ection ca$a%ility in East Asia.

)o US-China war – re'ional stabilit" Ackerman 72( B Muoting former admiral 'imothy 9eating, the official %log of the Armed Forces!ommunication and Electronics Association-)o%ert, RC:@C::, War 8etween !hina, U.S. ot +i&ely, htt$(CCwww.afcea.orgCsignalCsignalsca$eCinde=.$h$C@::C@RC:@C::R:@C4

'he United States and !hina are not li&ely to go to war with each other %ecause neither country wants it and it would run counter to %oth nations7 %est interests. 'hat was the conclusion of a $lenary $anel session hosted %y former Good 3orning

America host *avid Hartman at the @:: oint Warfighting !onference in irginia 8each. Adm. 'imothy . 9eating, US -)et.4, former head of the



U.S. Pacific !ommand, noted that !hina actually wants the United States to remain active in the Asia#Pacific region as ahedge against any other country7s adventurism. A nd, most of the other countries in that region want the United

States to remain active as a hedge against !hina. Among areas of concern for !hina is orth 9orea. Wallace /!hi$0 Gregson, formerassistant secretary of *efense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, said that a%ove all !hina fears insta%ility, and a orth 9orean colla$se or war could

send millions of refugees streaming into 3anchuria, which has economic $ro%lems of its own. As for 'aiwan, Adm. 9eating offered that witheach day, the li&elihood of a !hinese attac& on 'aiwan diminishes. Economic ties %etween the two governmentsare growing, as is social interaction. He $redicts that a gradual solution to reunification is coming. 'he United States

can hasten that $rocess %y remaining a $owerful force in the region, he added.

)o Taiwan war – economic ties prevent Ackerman 72( B Muoting former admiral 'imothy 9eating, the official %log of the Armed Forces!ommunication and Electronics Association-)o%ert, RC:@C::, War 8etween !hina, U.S. ot +i&ely, htt$(CCwww.afcea.orgCsignalCsignalsca$eCinde=.$h$C@::C@RC:@C::R:@C4

'he United States and !hina are not li&ely to go to war with each other %ecause neither country wants it and it would run counter to %oth nations7 %est interests. 'hat was the conclusion of a $lenary $anel session hosted %y former Good 3orning

America host *avid Hartman at the @:: oint Warfighting !onference in irginia 8each. Adm. 'imothy . 9eating, US -)et.4, former head of the

U.S. Pacific !ommand, noted that !hina actually wants the United States to remain active in the Asia#Pacific region as ahedge against any other country7s adventurism. A nd, most of the other countries in that region want the United

States to remain active as a hedge against !hina. Among areas of concern for !hina is orth 9orea. Wallace /!hi$0 Gregson, formerassistant secretary of *efense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, said that a%ove all !hina fears insta%ility, and a orth 9orean colla$se or war could

send millions of refugees streaming into 3anchuria, which has economic $ro%lems of its own. As for 'aiwan, Adm. 9eating offered that witheach day, the li&elihood of a !hinese attac& on 'aiwan diminishes. Economic ties %etween the two governmentsare growing, as is social interaction. He $redicts that a gradual solution to reunification is coming. 'he United States

can hasten that $rocess %y remaining a $owerful force in the region, he added.

)o US-China war% too much at stake Asia Sentinel ( # nde$endent news and analysis a%out Asias $olitics, economics, culture and more-Ehsan Ahrani, ;C:?C:@, !hina, the US and !lashing Aims, htt$(CCwww.asiasentinel.comCinde=.$h$Oo$tioncomDcontentQtas&viewQid?@:Qtemid:?:4*es$ite the rising s$irals of com$etition %etween them, neither the US nor !hina a$$ears dis$osed to see&

confrontation that has a high $otential of ra$idly escalating. 8oth B es$ecially the latter B have a lot to lose if a war %rea&s out %etween the two. !hina has accom$lished much in the $ast three decades. t is the Iworlds largest trading

nation.I n the words of _heng 8i"ian of the !hina )eform Forum, I'he most significant strategic choice the !hinese have made was to em%race economic glo%ali>ation rather than detach themselves from it.I And it has not shown anyintention of ris&ing such magnificent gains. n view of their clashing as$irations, their mutual ties Iwill never %e warm.8ut they could well %e wor&manli&e.I



CC< Collapse

CC< will avoi& collapse – a&aptation of the re'ime ke" 6su 8 B Assistant )esearch Fellow, nstitute of Political Science at Academia Sinica-S>u#chien, Edited %y Juan, /!rossstrait at the 'urning Point,0 !ha$ter ?, Pg :<#:<<,htt$(CCiir.nccu.edu.twCattachmentsCresearchC$u%licationCcrossstraitDatDtheDturningD$ointCch?.$df 4 )A t is undenia%le that the !!P regime has in recent years ado$ted many new $olitical reforms to strengthen itsruling ca$acity and legitimacy, such as allowing a com$etitive election at the grassroots level, rationali>ingadministrative structure, strengthening $arty and administrative su$ervision, or even allowing citi>ens to %einvolved in certain $artici$atory channels to influence $olicy ma&ing and local leading official nomination. 'heada$tive, fle=i%le, and even res$onsive nature of these reforms has changed the evaluation of Western scholarson the sustaina%ility, sta%ility, or even legitimacy of the !!P regime. Andrew athan has characteri>ed the !!Pregime as achieving /authoritarian resilience0 which he held will not democrati>e %ut will not %e immune fromchallenges for its survival either. ;; )egarding how the regime enhances its legitimacy %y institutionali>ingmore channels for in$ut, athan identified four ma"or institutions e=ce$t for the much mentioned com$etitive

village election( the /Administrative +itigation +aw,0 the /letters#and#visits0 -=infang4, the Peo$le7s !ongressand United Front, and the media as tri%unes of the $eo$le. :@@ 8ruce *ic&son detected that the !!P regimehas %een ada$tive in creating new inclusive institutions such as co#o$tional and cor$oratist arrangements fornew economic and social elites while maintaining e=clusive measures for unsanctioned social elements so thatthe $olitical mono$oly of its +eninist Party#State can endure. :@: *avid Sham%augh %elieved that, although the

!!P regime is %oth e=$eriencing /atro$hy0 and ado$ting /ada$tation0 at the same time, so far the !!P regimehas done fairly effectively in its ada$tation to co$e with the challenges of atro$hy, :@ and will eventuallyevolve incrementally into a new &ind of $arty#state, the /eclectic state.0 :@ Susan Shir& also found the !!Pregime has %een sur$risingly resilient in ma&ing use of these measures to stall the threat from $u%lic unrest,and may %e ca$a%le of surviving for years to come as long as the economy continues to grow. :@< *ali Jangoffered a more o$timistic view. As o%served %y him, the !!P regime has made a wide range of governancereforms including administrative rationali>ation, divestiture of %usinesses o$erated %y the military, and the

%uilding of anticorru$tion mechanisms, to strengthen the ca$acity to co$e with unruly mar&ets, cur%corru$tion, and %ring a%out a regulated economic order. :@R 'hese efforts have hel$ed !!P regime to im$roveits governance Muality, which was intended to &ee$ its mono$oly of $olitical $ower instead of regime transition,and $ro%a%ly will succeed in doing so in the intermediate term, according to Jang. :@ As Ste$hen White once$ointed out, those communist regimes that ado$ted consultative or /feed%ac&0 ca$acities of their systems tend

to allow their leadershi$s to reduce the ris& of $o$ular discontent and earn legitimacy. :@? Such an enhancedlegitimacy of the communist regime has %een detected in !hina. Shi 'ian"ian and !hen ie %oth o%served intheir survey that the !!P regime en"oys relatively high $u%lic su$$ort. :@2 A recent Pew survey also shows that2N of the surveyed !hinese $o$ulation is satisfied with the direction of the country, which ran&s num%er oneamong all the surveyed < countries. :@;

CC< will survive &espite possibilities for collapse – a&aptation provesS6A:,AU 8 # onresident Senior Fellow at the 8roo&ings nstitution-*A*, A$ril :R, 'ranscri$t of nterview, /!HAS !533US' PA)'J( A')5PHJ A* A*AP'A'50,htt$(CCwww.%roo&ings.eduCCmediaCFilesCeventsC@@2C@<:RDchinaC@@2@<:RDchina.$df 4 )A

While d li&e you to stay for the rest of the tal&, let me tell you where come out on the su%"ect on whether theParty can survive. 'he answer is a Mualified yes. see, as ve %een arguing, the Party as e=$eriencing a lot of

atro$hy %ut doing Muite well to ada$t, is the terminology that Samuel Huntington is the first ## deservesintellectual $ro$erty rights over ## and if you want to go %ac& ## and theres a wonderful literature here, theHuntingtonC8r>e>ins&i discussions of the late @s, the Huntington %oo& of 2, the Friedrich and 8r>e>ins&iarticles of, gosh, R@#something, R2 thin&. 'heres ## )ichard +owenthals writings a%out the evolution of the!ommunist $arty#states. 'heres a tremendous literature here that thin& we in the !hina field would do very

well to re#read and to conte=tuali>e the evolution of todays !!P in that %roader generic $henomenon of+eninist $artystates. So, thats the sort of outline of the %oo&. And then the argument of the %oo& is that after a$eriod of catharsis, after 2;, %oth %ecause of 'iananmen, %ut also %ecause of the East Euro$ean colla$ses,most $articularly the e=ecution of !eausescu and his wife in )omania on !hristmas Eve that year, %ut then thecolla$se of the mother of all 8olshevism, the Soviet Union. 'his $roduced a dee$ catharsis and hand#ringing.8ut after the handringing ended the !hinese !ommunist leadershi$ and Party %egan a very systematic series ofassessments that literally stretch u$ to this day. 'hey are not done yet. 8ut for all ostensi%le $ur$oses, the

http://iir.nccu.edu.tw/attachments/research/publication/crossstrait_at_the_turning_point/ch7.pdf

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0415_china/20080415_china.pdf





official, if you will, conclusions to why those Party states im$loded are em%odied in the communiMu of theFourth Plenum of the :th Party !ongress in @@<. Go %ac& and read that that communiMu if youre interestedin the official assessments, and even more so the interview given %y _eng Kinghong the day after the Plenumconcluded, if remem%er. ery lengthy interview, very interesting. So, these internal assessments were not "ustsort of some idle academic e=ercise trying to figure that out. 'hey had some real immediacy to them, %ecausethe !hinese !ommunist Party o%viously did not want to follow their comrades into the dust%in of history. So,there was a &ind of evolution of that de%ate over time and a series of conclusions that they arrived at. t was, should say, sort of $aralleled %y their own intros$ection.

CC< will avoi& collapse – lea&ers un&erstan& weaknesses an& are workin' to overcome themS6A:,AU 8 # onresident Senior Fellow at the 8roo&ings nstitution-*A*, A$ril :R, 'ranscri$t of nterview, /!HAS !533US' PA)'J( A')5PHJ A* A*AP'A'50,htt$(CCwww.%roo&ings.eduCCmediaCFilesCeventsC@@2C@<:RDchinaC@@2@<:RDchina.$df 4 )A

What a%out the Partys futureO +et me close, if can, with a cou$le of o%servations, may%e three, on thatsu%"ect. First, its clear to me that the Party does have a num%er of vulnera%ilities and lia%ilities that we woulddo well as analysts not to ignore or dismiss. ndeed, when you go %ac& and you read the Sovietology literature,there were ## there was only one Sovietologist that $redicted the colla$se of the Soviet Union and identified thereasons for it ## _%igniew 8re>ins&i ## and you can read it very clearly in his %oo& $u%lished earlier that yearand indeed over several $revious years in articles that he had written. So, a lot of the sort of $ostmortem hand#ringing a%out the Soviet !ommunist Party was a%out why didnt we see it comingO Well, thin& we in the !hinafield have got to, you &now, %e so%er as %est we can and to reali>e that this is a $arty#state that has atro$hied

Party cells, has a high level of corru$tion, lac&s a $ersuasive ideology, lac&s accounta%ility and trans$arency indecision#ma&ing, lac&s the rule of law, and a num%er of other $ro%lems. So, yes, its got atro$hy. 8ut there areim$ortant differences to the Soviet Union, first of all. 'he !hinese are Muite aware of their wea&nesses, andtheyre wor&ing to fi= them. dont thin& you could have said that a%out the Soviet !ommunist Party. 'hey are

%uilding a much more meritocratic Party#state, /meritocratic technocracy0 is the term li&e. cant remem%er where first heard it, %ut li&e it. 'hey are instituting a retirement norm and elite succession $rocedures, which is one of several new measures to institutionali>e $rocedures in the Party. 'heir economic growth iscertainly different than the Soviet case. 'heyre integrated into the world economyT the Soviet Union was not.'hey are %enefiting from glo%ali>ation, unli&e the Soviet Union. And they generally have a res$ected andincreasingly effective foreign $olicy, would argue. Jes, there are some dar& s$ots on that foreign $olicy, somecancers, if you will, %ut overall much more successful than Soviet foreign $olicy was, and, would argue, to the

%est that we can tell, they en"oy $o$ular legitimacy at home. So, going forward ## so, those are %ig differences. f

you are trying to com$are the !!P vis##vis these other +eninist states, theyre not nearly as totalitarian as wasthe G*). 'he administrative state security today in !hina is a far cry from the Stasi, one would argue, in theformer G*) or the 9* in the Soviet Union. m not trying to e=cuse it, %ut its not the $olice state and thesecurity state that those other !ommunist $arty#states were. 'hird, going forward thin& the real challenge isnot sim$ly for the !!P to a%sor% the lessons from the failed !ommunist Party states. 'hats only going to getthem so far. t may %uy them a little %it e=tended life, %ut if they really want longevity, thin& they need to seetheir Party and their country as a newly industriali>ing country. and thats where the study of other systems,non#+eninist systems, in +atin America and East Asia in $articular are relevant. WhyO 8ecause the ma"orchallenges of a newly industriali>ing country are in the $u%lic goods domain, and we are seeing in the last few

years increasing demands in !hina, "ust as we saw across the develo$ing world, at least in +atin America andEast Asia, for %etter ## for delivery of im$roved Muality of life and $u%lic goods to the $o$ulation and the needto have channels for the $o$ulation to articulate those demands. 'hat $rocess has %egun, and its only going tocontinue and is going to %e, argue in the %oo&, the $rinci$al challenge to the !!P going forward. So the $u%licgoods challenge, if you will, is front and center. And let me "ust close %y saying the Hu intao and Wen ia%aogovernment seems to get it. At least they get it rhetorically. And if you read the :?th Party !ongress re$ort, and

you read the Scientific *evelo$ment !once$t, and you read the Socialist Harmonious Society !once$t, and youread any num%er of other s$eeches and documents $ut out %y the government in !hina, the rhetoric is right.'hey are addressing $u%lic goods. 'hey &now a%out social stratification. 'hey &now a%out +atin Americane=am$les. 8ut the Muestion is, going forward, whether resources are going to follow the rhetoric, and in the firstHu intao administration the resources did not follow the rhetoric, and its going to %e interesting to see if nowindeed the resources %egin to flow to meet these $u%lic goods demands.





)o CC< collapse – peaceful transition to &emocrac" more likel" scenarioille" 9 B assistant $rofessor of $olitical studies at Kueen7s University in !anada, former contri%uting editorat the Far Eastern Economic )eview, and author of hina!s "emo#rati# $uture-8ruce, anuary, Pro"ect 3use, ournal of *emocracy, /s !hina Stuc&O0,htt$(CCmuse."hu.eduC"ournalsC"ournalDofDdemocracyCv@:2C:2.:gilley.html4 )A 'he %oo&7s first $ro$osition is that $ost#3ao !hina %egan as a transitional state moving along what would %e arelatively linear $rogression from Stalinist authoritarianism to mar&et#%ased li%eral democracy. While there ismuch to recommend this view, there is of course a serious alternative6namely, that !hina is indeedmoderni>ing, %ut is $rogressing toward a form of modernity Muite different from that which characteri>es

li%eral democracy. 3any fine minds, %oth !hinese and Western, have %een at wor& since 'iananmen thin&ingu$ ways for !hina to %ecome a less re$ressive and more legitimate country without %ecoming a li%eraldemocracy or fully li%erali>ing its economy. 'his is also the official $rogram of the ruling !hinese !ommunistParty -!!P4. Em$irical scholars -many of whom favor this outcome4 have found some evidence that thisscenario is coming into %eing. f so, then !hina7s transition is not tra$$ed %ut ongoing, even successful. Pei failsto consider this alternative modernity, which is a $ity %ecause this Muestion is central to determining whichas$ects of contem$orary !hina we should %e studying to understand the country7s future. Should we %econducting $u%lic#o$inion surveys or analy>ing neo!onfucian writingsO s it $rogress in dis$osing of statefirms or $rogress in creating state#owned cor$orate winners that matters mostO 'he %oo& would have had moreforce had Pei e=amined and then %een a%le to dis$el the notion that an alternative modernity is in the ma&ingin the world7s largest country. Assume it is not. n that case, the Muestions that Pei as&s are the right ones. 'his

%rings us to the %oo&7s second $ro$osition, which is that the !hinese transition is stalled or /tra$$ed.0 'he

critical moment at which !hina turned the corner into a %lind alley came in :;2;, when the !!P regimecrushed a democratic movement. 'his resulted in economic and $olitical reforms in the :;;@s that, %y virtue of

%eing wholly regimemanaged, gave rise to deformative structures. 'he reforms &e$t the $rivate sector small,denied legislative %odies and village governments true $ower, and allowed the state to %ecome corru$t andinefficient. *emocracy could not arise under such circumstances %ecause $o$ular $ressures were eithercoo$ted or su$$ressed. Pei wrote in the 5cto%er :;;R issue of the %ournal o& "emo#ra#y that democratictrends in !hina /a$$ear to %e accelerating,0 and that /iXf they are allowed to continue, they will gradually laythe institutional foundations for the eventual democrati>ation of !hina.0 Since then, he has $ro$osed that thefacts have changed6a view which he first mooted in a anuary @@ article, also $u%lished in the %ournal o&

"emo#ra#y ow, four years later, hina!s raed ransition com$letes the *olte &a#e Pei is right to drawattention to the costs of the slow transition. ndeed, the %oo&7s %iggest contri%ution is to show that gradualismhas %een as costly to !hina as ra$id reforms were to Eastern Euro$e and )ussia -echoing Harvard sociologist

8arrington 3oore7s famous argument a%out the com$arative costs of democrati>ation in 8ritain and France4.'here is no easy way out of the damaging legacies of authoritarian rule. n !hina, as Pei shows, a corru$t !!Pelite has &e$t a tight gri$ on $olitical $ower and used it to deform the economy and wea&en the state. 'his notonly e=acts costs now, %ut also im$oses heavy %urdens stretching into the future. !hina7s $artial transition is$assing to future generations a %an&ru$t stateT an economy with ga$ing, +atin AmericanBsi>ed ineMualitiesTand a $olitical culture $rone to e=tremism and violence. Given these facts, one might e=$ect to find the !hinese$eo$le agitating to change their governing system. ndeed, a core su$$osition of Pei7s analysis is that !hina7s$eo$le recogni>e these costs and thus want a faster transition to democracy and ca$italism. 8ut Pei neverseriously underta&es to show that the current system is illegitimate, and his $assing references to legitimacy-and much em$irical research4 actually suggest the o$$osite. Jet if there is no wides$read demand for fasterchange, then !hina7s transition is %est descri%ed not as tra$$ed, %ut as merely delayed . 'he distinction ma&es a

world of difference. f what we are seeing is only a slowdown in a still#via%le transition $rocess, then the manystructural im$ediments that Pei finds to /e=$lain0 the lac& of democrati>ation or full economic reform arecauses in search of effects. 'he real cause %ehind the $artial nature of !hina7s transition is that !hina7s $eo$le,on %alance, want it that way6des$ite the costs that Pei so a%ly catalogues. 'he !hinese are convinced thatattem$ts at ra$id transition cause %readlines and chaos. 'his idea %ears heavily on the %oo&7s third$ro$osition, that the im$asse of the tra$$ed -or $erha$s delayed4 transition is unli&ely to %e %ro&en without amassive ru$ture and even colla$se of the state, followed %y who &nows what degree of violence andsocioeconomic chaos. 'he tra$$ed or delayed transition may even last /an e=tended $eriod0 %ecause /the !!P

will unli&ely see& its own demise through voluntary reform0 -$$. ::, @24. So far so good, %ut what thenO ForPei, the most li&ely outcome is colla$se or chaos, %ecause the !!P has shown for the last decade and a half thatit will not %udge e*en i& $o$ular $ressure is %rought against it. 'hus its downfall will not %e a graceful e=it %ut acataclysmic colla$se in the face of /mass $o$ular $olitical mo%ili>ation0 -$. @R4. Jet what if the !!P is actually Muite res$onsiveO What if it is in tune with $o$ular demands, and finds ways to move and ada$t as those

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http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v018/18.1gilley.html



demands changeO n other words, what if the $arty stays or goes +e#ause of $o$ular $ressuresO Pei himselfrecogni>es this $ossi%ility. He cites /rising $u%lic dissatisfaction0 -$.:<4 as one thing that would $rod theregime to change. /A democratic o$ening may emerge in the end, %ut not as a regime#initiated strategyunderta&en at its own choosing, %ut more li&ely as the result of a sudden crisis0 -$. <<4. Perha$s the word crisisis %eing used in two different senses here. 5ne crisis and another can, after all, vary in urgency( 'here are crisesand there are #rises 'he crisis of which Pei s$ea&s seems to %e of the more %enign sort, a mere shift in $u%lic$references that $rods the regime to change. Such a crisis will not reMuire democracy to rise u$on the ashes of ara>ed $u%lic sMuare, %ut rather will stir the regime to recogni>e that its time has come, and to do the right thing

%y going fairly gentle into that good night. f so, then the $ros$ects for a relatively smooth democratic

transition in !hina are %right and no colla$se is li&ely.

CC< will avoi& collapse – a&aptation of the re'ime ke" 6su 8 B Assistant )esearch Fellow, nstitute of Political Science at Academia Sinica-S>u#chien, Edited %y Juan, /!rossstrait at the 'urning Point,0 !ha$ter ?, Pg :<#:<<,htt$(CCiir.nccu.edu.twCattachmentsCresearchC$u%licationCcrossstraitDatDtheDturningD$ointCch?.$df 4 )A t is undenia%le that the !!P regime has in recent years ado$ted many new $olitical reforms to strengthen itsruling ca$acity and legitimacy, such as allowing a com$etitive election at the grassroots level, rationali>ingadministrative structure, strengthening $arty and administrative su$ervision, or even allowing citi>ens to %einvolved in certain $artici$atory channels to influence $olicy ma&ing and local leading official nomination. 'heada$tive, fle=i%le, and even res$onsive nature of these reforms has changed the evaluation of Western scholars

on the sustaina%ility, sta%ility, or even legitimacy of the !!P regime. Andrew athan has characteri>ed the !!Pregime as achieving /authoritarian resilience0 which he held will not democrati>e %ut will not %e immune fromchallenges for its survival either. ;; )egarding how the regime enhances its legitimacy %y institutionali>ingmore channels for in$ut, athan identified four ma"or institutions e=ce$t for the much mentioned com$etitive

village election( the /Administrative +itigation +aw,0 the /letters#and#visits0 -=infang4, the Peo$le7s !ongressand United Front, and the media as tri%unes of the $eo$le. :@@ 8ruce *ic&son detected that the !!P regimehas %een ada$tive in creating new inclusive institutions such as co#o$tional and cor$oratist arrangements fornew economic and social elites while maintaining e=clusive measures for unsanctioned social elements so thatthe $olitical mono$oly of its +eninist Party#State can endure. :@: *avid Sham%augh %elieved that, although the!!P regime is %oth e=$eriencing /atro$hy0 and ado$ting /ada$tation0 at the same time, so far the !!P regimehas done fairly effectively in its ada$tation to co$e with the challenges of atro$hy, :@ and will eventuallyevolve incrementally into a new &ind of $arty#state, the /eclectic state.0 :@ Susan Shir& also found the !!P

regime has %een sur$risingly resilient in ma&ing use of these measures to stall the threat from $u%lic unrest,and may %e ca$a%le of surviving for years to come as long as the economy continues to grow. :@< *ali Jangoffered a more o$timistic view. As o%served %y him, the !!P regime has made a wide range of governancereforms including administrative rationali>ation, divestiture of %usinesses o$erated %y the military, and the

%uilding of anticorru$tion mechanisms, to strengthen the ca$acity to co$e with unruly mar&ets, cur%corru$tion, and %ring a%out a regulated economic order. :@R 'hese efforts have hel$ed !!P regime to im$roveits governance Muality, which was intended to &ee$ its mono$oly of $olitical $ower instead of regime transition,and $ro%a%ly will succeed in doing so in the intermediate term, according to Jang. :@ As Ste$hen White once$ointed out, those communist regimes that ado$ted consultative or /feed%ac&0 ca$acities of their systems tendto allow their leadershi$s to reduce the ris& of $o$ular discontent and earn legitimacy. :@? Such an enhancedlegitimacy of the communist regime has %een detected in !hina. Shi 'ian"ian and !hen ie %oth o%served intheir survey that the !!P regime en"oys relatively high $u%lic su$$ort. :@2 A recent Pew survey also shows that2N of the surveyed !hinese $o$ulation is satisfied with the direction of the country, which ran&s num%er oneamong all the surveyed < countries. :@;

CC< will survive &espite possibilities for collapse – a&aptation provesS6A:,AU 8 # onresident Senior Fellow at the 8roo&ings nstitution-*A*, A$ril :R, 'ranscri$t of nterview, /!HAS !533US' PA)'J( A')5PHJ A* A*AP'A'50,htt$(CCwww.%roo&ings.eduCCmediaCFilesCeventsC@@2C@<:RDchinaC@@2@<:RDchina.$df 4 )A

While d li&e you to stay for the rest of the tal&, let me tell you where come out on the su%"ect on whether theParty can survive. 'he answer is a Mualified yes. see, as ve %een arguing, the Party as e=$eriencing a lot ofatro$hy %ut doing Muite well to ada$t, is the terminology that Samuel Huntington is the first ## deservesintellectual $ro$erty rights over ## and if you want to go %ac& ## and theres a wonderful literature here, theHuntingtonC8r>e>ins&i discussions of the late @s, the Huntington %oo& of 2, the Friedrich and 8r>e>ins&i







articles of, gosh, R@#something, R2 thin&. 'heres ## )ichard +owenthals writings a%out the evolution of the!ommunist $arty#states. 'heres a tremendous literature here that thin& we in the !hina field would do very

well to re#read and to conte=tuali>e the evolution of todays !!P in that %roader generic $henomenon of+eninist $artystates. So, thats the sort of outline of the %oo&. And then the argument of the %oo& is that after a$eriod of catharsis, after 2;, %oth %ecause of 'iananmen, %ut also %ecause of the East Euro$ean colla$ses,most $articularly the e=ecution of !eausescu and his wife in )omania on !hristmas Eve that year, %ut then thecolla$se of the mother of all 8olshevism, the Soviet Union. 'his $roduced a dee$ catharsis and hand#ringing.8ut after the handringing ended the !hinese !ommunist leadershi$ and Party %egan a very systematic series ofassessments that literally stretch u$ to this day. 'hey are not done yet. 8ut for all ostensi%le $ur$oses, the

official, if you will, conclusions to why those Party states im$loded are em%odied in the communiMu of theFourth Plenum of the :th Party !ongress in @@<. Go %ac& and read that that communiMu if youre interestedin the official assessments, and even more so the interview given %y _eng Kinghong the day after the Plenumconcluded, if remem%er. ery lengthy interview, very interesting. So, these internal assessments were not "ustsort of some idle academic e=ercise trying to figure that out. 'hey had some real immediacy to them, %ecausethe !hinese !ommunist Party o%viously did not want to follow their comrades into the dust%in of history. So,there was a &ind of evolution of that de%ate over time and a series of conclusions that they arrived at. t was, should say, sort of $aralleled %y their own intros$ection.

CC< will avoi& collapse – lea&ers un&erstan& weaknesses an& are workin' to overcome themS6A:,AU 8 # onresident Senior Fellow at the 8roo&ings nstitution-*A*, A$ril :R, 'ranscri$t of nterview, /!HAS !533US' PA)'J( A')5PHJ A* A*AP'A'50,

htt$(CCwww.%roo&ings.eduCCmediaCFilesCeventsC@@2C@<:RDchinaC@@2@<:RDchina.$df 4 )A What a%out the Partys futureO +et me close, if can, with a cou$le of o%servations, may%e three, on thatsu%"ect. First, its clear to me that the Party does have a num%er of vulnera%ilities and lia%ilities that we woulddo well as analysts not to ignore or dismiss. ndeed, when you go %ac& and you read the Sovietology literature,there were ## there was only one Sovietologist that $redicted the colla$se of the Soviet Union and identified thereasons for it ## _%igniew 8re>ins&i ## and you can read it very clearly in his %oo& $u%lished earlier that yearand indeed over several $revious years in articles that he had written. So, a lot of the sort of $ostmortem hand#ringing a%out the Soviet !ommunist Party was a%out why didnt we see it comingO Well, thin& we in the !hinafield have got to, you &now, %e so%er as %est we can and to reali>e that this is a $arty#state that has atro$hiedParty cells, has a high level of corru$tion, lac&s a $ersuasive ideology, lac&s accounta%ility and trans$arency indecision#ma&ing, lac&s the rule of law, and a num%er of other $ro%lems. So, yes, its got atro$hy. 8ut there areim$ortant differences to the Soviet Union, first of all. 'he !hinese are Muite aware of their wea&nesses, and

theyre wor&ing to fi= them. dont thin& you could have said that a%out the Soviet !ommunist Party. 'hey are %uilding a much more meritocratic Party#state, /meritocratic technocracy0 is the term li&e. cant remem%er where first heard it, %ut li&e it. 'hey are instituting a retirement norm and elite succession $rocedures, which is one of several new measures to institutionali>e $rocedures in the Party. 'heir economic growth iscertainly different than the Soviet case. 'heyre integrated into the world economyT the Soviet Union was not.'hey are %enefiting from glo%ali>ation, unli&e the Soviet Union. And they generally have a res$ected andincreasingly effective foreign $olicy, would argue. Jes, there are some dar& s$ots on that foreign $olicy, somecancers, if you will, %ut overall much more successful than Soviet foreign $olicy was, and, would argue, to the

%est that we can tell, they en"oy $o$ular legitimacy at home. So, going forward ## so, those are %ig differences. f you are trying to com$are the !!P vis##vis these other +eninist states, theyre not nearly as totalitarian as wasthe G*). 'he administrative state security today in !hina is a far cry from the Stasi, one would argue, in theformer G*) or the 9* in the Soviet Union. m not trying to e=cuse it, %ut its not the $olice state and thesecurity state that those other !ommunist $arty#states were. 'hird, going forward thin& the real challenge isnot sim$ly for the !!P to a%sor% the lessons from the failed !ommunist Party states. 'hats only going to getthem so far. t may %uy them a little %it e=tended life, %ut if they really want longevity, thin& they need to seetheir Party and their country as a newly industriali>ing country. and thats where the study of other systems,non#+eninist systems, in +atin America and East Asia in $articular are relevant. WhyO 8ecause the ma"orchallenges of a newly industriali>ing country are in the $u%lic goods domain, and we are seeing in the last few

years increasing demands in !hina, "ust as we saw across the develo$ing world, at least in +atin America andEast Asia, for %etter ## for delivery of im$roved Muality of life and $u%lic goods to the $o$ulation and the needto have channels for the $o$ulation to articulate those demands. 'hat $rocess has %egun, and its only going tocontinue and is going to %e, argue in the %oo&, the $rinci$al challenge to the !!P going forward. So the $u%licgoods challenge, if you will, is front and center. And let me "ust close %y saying the Hu intao and Wen ia%aogovernment seems to get it. At least they get it rhetorically. And if you read the :?th Party !ongress re$ort, and





you read the Scientific *evelo$ment !once$t, and you read the Socialist Harmonious Society !once$t, and youread any num%er of other s$eeches and documents $ut out %y the government in !hina, the rhetoric is right.'hey are addressing $u%lic goods. 'hey &now a%out social stratification. 'hey &now a%out +atin Americane=am$les. 8ut the Muestion is, going forward, whether resources are going to follow the rhetoric, and in the firstHu intao administration the resources did not follow the rhetoric, and its going to %e interesting to see if nowindeed the resources %egin to flow to meet these $u%lic goods demands.

Collapse unlikel" – CC< focusin' on public &eman&s an& reformationon'"an' (( B !hina *aily staff writer

-'an, Fe%ruary , !hina *aily, /)eform leading to %etter governance, scholars suggest0,htt$(CCwww.chinadaily.com.cnCcndyC@::#@?C@CcontentD:2::<<.htm4 )A 8EG # 'he to$ leader of the !ommunist Party of !hina -!P!4, Hu intao, hailed !hinas social and economic achievements under the Partys leadershi$ in a &eynote address on Friday, yet trenchantly critici>edthe $ro%lems that may sour its governance. )esolution to further reform and rectify the Party so it can %ettersteer the country was also highlighted, according to !hinese e=$erts on $olitics and $u%lic administration.IHus s$eech stressed that the Party, es$ecially its officials, should maintain a close connection with the $eo$le,

which is critical for fulfilling a good governance,I Wu Hui, a $rofessor at the Party School of the !P! !entral !ommittee, told !hina *aily. n the s$eech, Hu warned that Ialienation from the $eo$le $oses the greatest ris&to the Party,I and that IParty and government offices at all levels and their officials should stay close with the$eo$le-and4 address their concernI. 'he to$ leader $rioriti>ed Party#%uilding %efore other tas&s such aseconomic and culture develo$ment, and Wu said that showed the Partys resolution to discover its own faults

and correct them. IAll the achievements of the Party over the $ast ;@ years have %een made %y the Partytogether with the $eo$le. We will never forget that the $eo$le are the real heroes,I Hu said when he came to theend of his s$eech. And to %etter stay in line with the statement, the to$ leader warned his comrades to Inot forget his origin when in $rominent $ositionI or Iuse $ower for $ersonal gainsI. 3ao Shoulong, a $rofessor at )enmin University of !hina, told !hina *aily that he thought the s$eech %rought out %oth the Partys achievements and its deficiencies, which counters im$ro$er conce$ts in the international community. 'hose

who ta&e a gloomy view on the !P!s governance would $ro%a%ly %e wrong, 3ao said, %ecause the Party wasstraightforward a%out its $ro%lems and has initiated efforts to com%at corru$tion and further im$rove its$olitical democracy, he said. 5n the other hand, 3ao said, those who %eat the drum for the advantages of a socialist system with !hinese characteristics, sometimes &nown as I!hina 3odeI, would %e frustrated that the system still find faults that need correction. Wu said the s$eech itself, different in rhetoric from $revious Party documents, showed that the !P! has tried to %ecome closer with the $eo$le. IHu said the Party mem%ers

should res$ect the $eo$le as masters of the house and their creativity, which is Muite a vivid meta$hor. And there are more cases li&e this to %e easily understood %y the $u%lic,I Wu said.

A&aptation an& chan'e 'uarantee lastin' nature of the CC<Sin'h (( # $rofessor of international studies at awaharlal ehru University, ew *elhi-Swaran, une :, !hina *aily, /!P! at ;@( nnovation &ey to success0,htt$(CCwww.china.org.cnCo$inionC@::#@C:CcontentD?;;.htm4 )A 'he hallmar& of President Hu intaos tenure has %een !hinas $artici$ation in and leading of variousmultilateral forums, e=$anding trans$arency at home and granting new rights to the !hinese $eo$le. E=$ertsdescri%e this as !hinas move toward greater democracy, and the I8ei"ing consensusI and I!hina modelI arenow %eing de%ated across the world. !hinas un$recedented economic rise since the :;;@s, the disintegrationof the former Soviet Union and colla$se of the East 8loc were to $rovide a ma"or $ush for the !P! leadershi$ toreinvent itself. 'his resulted in ra$id evolution of not only the !P!, %ut also of !hinese $olitics, society andeven culture. With the e$ithet of I!hinese characteristicsI and Isocialist mar&et economyI, the !P! has sinceintroduced several new formulations such as I$eaceful develo$mentI, Is$iritual civili>ationI and Iharmonious

worldI. )ecent years have seen an increase in !P! mem%ershi$. 'he continued high economic growth andnationalism are normally descri%ed as the twin $illars of the !P!s continued legitimacy, a legitimacy that has$ut to rest the I!hina %u%%le#%ustI theory of the early :;;@s. 'he !P! has e=$anded its relations with morethan @@ $olitical $arties across the world, and %ecome far more cosmo$olitan and trans$arent a%out sharinginformation on the challenges it faces such as s&ewed regional develo$ment, $ervasive unem$loyment, risingrural unrest and crime, and widening income divide. 'he $ast decades have also seen the !P! seriouslyengaging other $olitical forces at home in its $lans, hel$ing develo$ non#governmental organi>ations and civilsociety, and $aying greater attention to the demands of the growing middle class. 'he ever#e=$anding shades ofo$inions, stronger scrutiny of !P! $olicies, hundreds of new $rint and online media and even greater offer of

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-07/02/content_12821144.htm

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2011-06/16/content_22796392.htm

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-07/02/content_12821144.htm

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2011-06/16/content_22796392.htm



choices in everyday life $resent a new trend in !hinese $olitics with the !P! at its helm. From its days of classstruggle and continuous revolution, the !P! has moved to ensuring $eaceful develo$ment and %uilding aharmonious society. !hange, they say, is the only $ermanent reality. And the fact that the !P! has continued toinnovate and re#invent itself is what ma&es the rise of !hina one of the to$ events of this century.



Russia



A3 Re& Sprea&

Russias nationalist ambitions are mo&est – the" &ont want to become imperialist<rav&a ! # *irector of the )ussian and Eurasian Studies !entre, St Antony7s !ollege, 5=ford University -Ale=, House of !ommons *efence !ommittee, :@ uly @@; /)ussia( a new confrontationO0htt$(CCwww.contracts.mod.u&C$dfsCR.$df4

disagree in some res$ects with what my colleague "ust said. thin& the notion of any state having a coherentoverall foreign $olicy strategy long#term is a diJcult one to sustain in $ractice. )ussia has struggled more thanmost states with incoherence of strategy. t has various visions, set out in long documents which are readilyissued, %oth on security and foreign $olicy. t has tactics, at which it is Muite ade$t, in a chess#$laying way,selfconsciously. t often lac&s the middle, which is the strategic element of how to match the visions withmeans. 'hings have im$roved somewhat and we conventionally com$are the incoherence of the Jeltsin :;;@s

with the increasing coherence and control of the Putin two administrations, and that goes through to, in most$eo$le7s analyses, the Putin#3edvedev tandem era. However, thin& that the two regional conflicts, the armedconflict with Georgia, the gas conflict with U&raine, and the handling of the glo%al crisis with which )ussia has

%een trying to gra$$le, show u$ the very im$ortant elements of lac& of co#ordination %etween various agencies,the high degree of $ersonalisation and decision#ma&ing, sometimes the im$rovisation of decisions, %ecauseo%viously crises tend to %ring that out even more strongly. do not thin& one wants to loo& for enormousdierences among decision ma&ers, %ut one wants to %e realistic a%out the degree of im$rovisation they have tounderta&e. From their view of things, as often from inside, things loo& much more chaotic than any smooth

advance towards a strategic aim. He increasingly comments on what they are aiming to achieve, the vision. 'he vision is not a Soviet vision. o one thin& in )ussia wants to s$end what they saw as needless resources onmaintaining some sort of sem%lance of glo%al reach. 'he moves to send warshi$s to ene>uela and so on,echoes of glo%al am%ition, are often more criticised than su$$orted in 3oscow and they are very tentative. 'heaim of the e=ercise6and this relates to the Muestion you finished your last session with( )ussia7s $ride6is to %eac&nowledged as a senior great $ower, not "ust any great $ower on a $ar with France and Germany. ot asu$er$ower, %ecause that is too e=$ensive and %eyond )ussia7s reach and am%ition in a glo%al sense, %ut asenior great $ower which has $articular droit de regard in the former of Soviet s$ace, dealing in a very diJcult

way with $ost#m$erial situations. We have to at least em$hasise6not sym$athise6 with the diJculties ofdealing with states that were $art of an im$erial structure, lin&ed u$ in gas $i$elines, security arrangements,mental outloo&s, ethnic %lood lin&sT so dealing with all that and yet achieving an eMual great $ower status withthe large senior great $owers of the world, and inclusion in the clu%s of senior great $owers to wor& within the

system.

Tension with the Russian state limits Russian nationalism?hachaturian ( # graduate student in $olitical science at ndiana University-)afael, *ecem%er ? /State of *isorder( )ussia7s Ultranationalist Pro%lem0htt$(CCwww.dissentmaga>ine.orgConline.$h$Oid<@4

'he rhetoric and %ehavior emanating from the official channels of the 9remlin has $layed a role in creating theto=ic atmos$here that hangs over )ussia today. 'he )ussian state is rea$ing the ugly $roducts of thenationalism it has %een sowing for the %etter $art of a decade6$u%lic sentiment that it counted on containingand harnessing toward its own domestic $olicies. 8ut the relationshi$ %etween state channels and the far )ighthas always %een $recarious, driven %y $olitical e=igency and a $erceived dovetailing of interests. Whether this

relationshi$ will continue in the same manner remains to %e seen, although there are signs it is %ecomingstrained. 'his year, S5A has re$orted instances of ultranationalists claiming res$onsi%ilities for anti#statecrimes, targeting $u%lic officials in various regions. +i&ewise, com$ared with the license of recent years, stateauthorities have %een more %usily legislating and enforcing laws targeting neo#a>i incitements to violence. 'ocom$licate matters further, there are li&ely to %e differences within the 9remlin leadershi$ on how to handlethe far )ight, and how to avoid ceding the $olitical terrain of nationalism while at the same time maintaining aclose relationshi$ with 9adyrov and sta%ility in the orth !aucasus.

The Russian 'overnment will prevent a rise of nationalism Shestakov (( # editor of the international $olitics des& at )ossiys&aya Ga>eta.-Jevgeny, : un @::, htt$(CCwww.telegra$h.co.u&Cs$onsoredCrussianowCo$inionC2R?:C3oderate#nationalism#)ussia.html4



8ut is it even $ossi%le to confront nationalism in a democracy, given the o%vious a$$eal and often so$histicationof this ideology O A num%er of )ussians %elieve that the Soviet e=$erience of $romoting /friendshi$ among $eo$les0 at thestate level can %e drawn u$on to fight nationalist tendencies. 'hose $rogrammes were well funded and the$olicy of cadre rotation %etween re$resentatives of various ethnic grou$s within the country was a normal$ractice.

:e&ve&evs peaceful militar" &octrine will check back nationalist war hawks,orisov ( B writer for )'

-Sergey, @2 Fe%ruary, @:@ )5A)( /Peaceful military doctrine according to $resent standards0htt$(CCrt.comC$oliticsCroar#$eaceful#military#doctrineC4

)ussian President *mitry 3edvedev has signed the new 3ilitary *octrine, which outlines the country7s military $osition andthe $rinci$les of state nuclear deterrence $olicy for the ne=t ten years. 'he document has %een ado$ted after an assessment of new threats and challenges

faced %y )ussia. 'he new doctrine on the whole re$eats the $rovisions of the $revious one, ado$ted in @@@, which was /strictlydefensive,0 o%servers say . 'he main difference of the new document is that now /for the first time e=ternal military threats have %een s$ecifiedand the right to use armed forces a%road has %een confirmed to defend the country7s interests and its citi>ens,0 )ossiys&aya Ga>eta daily said. Also forthe first time the main ally of )ussia has %een called in the doctrine, which sti$ulates that military and $olitical coo$eration with 8elarus is a $riority, the$a$er said. 'he document says that the de$loyment of missile defense systems near the )ussian %order, as well as militari>ation of s$ace and

develo$ment of high#$recision wea$ons $resents a threat to the country. According to the doctrine, the main tas&s of the armed forces are(defense of the country7s sovereigntyT its integrity and inviola%ility of territoryT defense of citi>ens a%road fromarmed attac&sT and fighting $iracy , remya ovostey daily said. 'he new military doctrine is, in fact, /a declaration a%out a state7s $olicy in

the s$here of nuclear security, which is announced to the whole world,0 the $a$er said. )ussia may now use nuclear wea$ons to res$onse against anattac& from a country $ossessing nuclear wea$ons or against an aggression against it or its allies if the e=istence of the state is threatened. t is onlynatural, the $a$er said, %ecause /now no state $ossessing nuclear wea$ons, rules out the $ossi%ility of its use.0 Although )ussia /does not consider any

conflict acce$ta%le, neither a nuclear nor a conventional one, the deterrent of them is the %asis of the country7s military $olicy,0 the $a$er said. / Weare not going to attac& anyone, %ut we are not going to wait for the moment when a stri&e will %e delivered on us,0 the $a$er Muotedi&olay Patrushev, the Secretary of the )ussian Security !ouncil, as saying. Patrushev was one of the develo$ers of the newdoctrine, the daily noted. According to the new doctrine, the armed forces should %ecome more effective and mo%ile, with com%ined arms units$erforming different tas&s. At the same time, the de$uties of the $arliament who $artici$ated in the $re$aration of the document failed to include the$rovision a%out the allocation of %udget funds to $urchase new arms, military eMui$ment from foreign $roducers if )ussia has no analogs, Ga>eta.ruonline news$a$er said. Analysts note that A'57s attem$ts to e=$and the A'5 military infrastructure closer to )ussian %orders and to give glo%alfunctions to the alliance7s $ower $otential were mentioned among the main military threats to )ussia. 5n the other hand, recently some analysts saidthat the new doctrine will determine )ussia7s right to deliver a $re#em$tive nuclear stri&e even in local military conflicts, %ut they were mista&en,

)ossiys&aya Ga>eta said. )ussia will not deliver $re#em$tive nuclear stri&es is case of threats to the state7s securityand will use it only in case of an attac& against it, Ga>eta.ru online news$a$er said. Some tougher $rovisions that had %een $ro$osedearlier were not included in the final variant, it noted. 'he @@@ doctrine said that )ussia may use nuclear wea$ons in case of /a large#scale aggression

with the use of nuclear wea$ons,0 the $a$er added. 'he doctrine was e=$ected to %e ado$ted in late 5cto%er, and the wording a%out $ossi%le $re#em$tivenuclear stri&e /$rovo&ed discussions,0 the $a$er said. 8ut the $rovision a%out the use of nuclear wea$ons that was included in the

document /is rather mild,0 %elieves Ale&sey Ar%atov, head of the !enter for nternational Security at the nstituteof World Economy and nternational )elations. / have seen all $revious wordings, and this one is a very restrained andmild com$ared, even to the United States7 military doctrine,0 he told Ga>eta.ru. Although )ussia retains the right to deliver a nuclear stri&e,there are so many conditions for this that, /according to the $resent standards, it could %e descri%ed as a $eaceful military doctrine,0 Ar%atov said. According to the $a$er, the final variant of the doctrine does not contain the definition of aggression that was defined in the draft document as an illegal

direct or indirect use of force %y one state against sovereignty, territorial integrity or inde$endence of another one. Some /haw& generals0 hadallegedly $ro$osed /to use nuclear wea$ons even in non#threatening situations,0 remya ovostey said. 8ut *e$utyPrime 3inister Sergey vanov called it /nonsense,0 stressing that /)ussian generals strictly follow $oliticaldirectives.0

The Russian nationalist movement has no impact on Russian politics an& will eventuall" &ieoble 8 # a longtime s$ecialist on ethnic and religious Muestions in Eurasia-Paul, anuary : /Window on Eurasia( )ussian ational 3ovement ]*oesn7t E=ist,7 *isa$$ointed eteranSays0 htt$(CCwindowoneurasia.%logs$ot.comC@@2C@:Cwindow#on#eurasia#russian#national.html4

8a&u, anuary : B At $resent, a serious )ussian ational 3ovement /does not e=ist ,0 is unli&ely to win su$$ort fromthe $o$ulation, and will not %e a%le to challenge the 9remlin for $ower , according to someone who $assedthrough the ran&s of many grou$s that %elieved they could form the nucleus of such a movement. nstead, its

would#%e leaders are incom$etent, uncertain and $enetrated, its tactics of limited use when not com$letelycounter$roductive, and its a%ility to reach out to the increasingly cynical $o$ulation almost nil , Ale&sandr 8ol7sha&ovsays in an essay $osted online yesterday -htt$(CCwww.a$n.ruC$u%licationsCarticle:2;::.htm4. 8ol7sha&ov would a$$ear to &now whereof he s$ea&s. He

notes that he s$ent /more than a decade0 in what most $eo$le thin& of as the )ussian movement, $artici$ating in )ussian ational



Unity -)E4, the Slavic !ommunity, )odina, and Great )ussia, as well as coo$erating with Patriots of )ussia, )us7 and other grou$s. ow, thedisa$$ointed activist writes, /it7s time to draw some conclusions0 a%out what this was all a%out and whether it in fact will lead to anything. At least to "udge from this article and assuming that he is not acting as an agent $rovocateur as many in the movement, 8ol7sha&ov7s /conclusions0 are entirely

negative and merit close attention. Any movement, he says, must do three things( t must /define and defend its idea.0 t mustintroduce it to as many $eo$le as $ossi%le. And it must ma&e its idea the one that defines the course of the country. +oo&ing ahead to )ussia7s

$residential vote in 3arch, he notes, it is o%vious that )ussian nationalists have not done any of these. 'hose who call

themselves )ussian nationalists are dee$ly s$lit, 8ol7sha&ov continues, and many of them are more concerned withanathemati>ing other )ussian nationalists than with forming a united front, winning su$$ort in the $o$ulationand ta&ing $ower. Were any one of these grou$s to ta&e $ower, they would not only destroy the state %ut in their $ursuit of enemies within the)ussian nationalist cam$ would visit even more chaos and disaster than that which occurred /at the %eginning of the last century when ]you#&now#who7

destroyed )ussians.0 8ut that $ro$osition is not going to %e tested, 8ol7sha&ov says, %ecause /we )ussian nationalistsX will not come to$ower.0 'he reasons for that are %oth o%vious and damning, he argues. 3ost of the nationalist grou$ings and $arties are small,

with incom$etent leaders and a followers that consists of marginal losers un$re$ared to do anything much,fools who do not understand what they are involved with and government agents $rovocateurs who e=$loit

%oth. 3oreover, /there is no money the life%lood of any $olitical grou$X, and there isn7t going to %e.0 o one would give any without some ho$e for a return, and )ussian nationalists cannot $romise any. And those involved in the movementdirectly seldom are in a $osition to earn the money the movement would need to grow. -n this comedy, 8ol7sha&ov suggests, ladimir _hirinovs&iy7sclowning, which attracts the attention of the media, may %e the only sensi%le strategy for $eo$le in this $art of the )ussian $olitical s$ectrum. After all,

the media coverage his antics get %rings his ideas such as they are to a %road $u%lic.4 8ut even if money somehow magically a$$eared,

8ol7sha&ov suggests, his own e=$erience indicates that these grou$s do not &now how to reach out to themasses. )ussians today /have already gotten used to the idea that they are %eing constantly lied to.0 And

conseMuently, they tune out almost everything. As a result, )ussian nationalist leaflets and we% $ages seldom reachanyone e=ce$t those already convinced, thus guaranteeing that the movement not only will not grow %ut also

that it will gradually die. And its actions, small demonstrations and marches, have the effect of signally not how strong themovement is %ut how wea& . And as for the so#called leaders of the )ussian national movement, he says, they fall intothree categories( First, the fools, most of whom are honestly concerned a%out the fate of their nation and country %ut who lac& the means or

understanding to do anything a%out it 'he worst of these are those who sit at home, worry a%out /worldwide $ro%lems, and/almost daily ado$t resolutions of the ty$e /!oncerning the incorrect nature of the actions of A'5 in raM.0 Such $eo$le are a threat to no one,

8ol7sha&ov adds, other than $erha$s to themselves. Second, the %usinessmen, $eo$le for whom /the struggle is a %usiness0 thatthey engage into advance their careers. And third, the $rovocateurs, /all of whose actions are directed Z atdiscrediting the 3ovement,0 s$litting it into smaller and smaller fractions more easily controlled, and drivingits mem%ers away . Unfortunately for the movement, 8ol7sha&ov says, /it is $ractically im$ossi%le to distinguish the$rovocateur from the ideologically committed B their words are the same and their actions are similar. !onseMuently, one is always

as&ing oneself whether someone is a fool or a $rovocateurOY0 /'he am%itions of these little Fuehrers and little a$oleans from all

these categoriesX do not allow for the achievement of anything even resem%ling unity .0 And those who %elieve unity

is essential lac& the means to fight %ac& when such leaders inevita%ly wor& to discredit them. Given the a$$earance of

sta%ility in the country, the government7s clever de$loyment of $rovocateurs and its use of )ussian nationalist themes, and /the lac& of su$$ort0 from the

$o$ulation, the numerically small )ussian national movement is not in a $osition to do very much at all , let alone

thin& a%out ta&ing $ower. n these circumstances, 8ol7sha&ov argues, )ussian nationalists have /only three o$tions0( First, they can give u$, turn to

the %ottle and %ehave /li&e Soviet dissidents sitting in the &itchen and shedding tears a%out the )ussian $eo$le.0 n reality, many )ussiannationalists are already doing e=actly that . Second, they can su$$ort the current $resident or an /5range0 revolution in the ho$es that

things may get worse and thus $rovide them with an o$ening. /5r0 B and with that word, 8ol7sha&ov ends his article, im$licitly suggestingthat neither he nor his former comrades in arms have much of an idea. 8ol7sha&ov7s comments are im$ortant not only %ecausethey show how $oorly organi>ed )ussian nationalists as a grou$ are %ut also that those who identify themselves as mem%ers of that grou$ do not li&e ladimir Putin who many %elieve has /wea&ened0 the )ussian nationalist movement %y ado$ting many of its ideas.

:an" alt causes to Russian nationalismiek (( # Ph.*., Head of *e$artment at the 3inistry of Foreign Affairs of the )e$u%lic of 'ur&ey -Anl, S$ring @::, /)ise of )ussian ationalism B Footste$s of the Slavo$hilesO( Understanding the *ynamicsof ationalism as a State Policy in )ussia0 www.alternatives"ournal.netCnewCdownloadD$df.$h$OfRDrev:.$df4

'oday, we are witnessing the /reemergence0 of )ussian nationalism in a time when )ussian Federation is trying to restore its $lace as a su$er $ower in

glo%al $olitics. Since the colla$se of the former Soviet Union, there have %een im$ortant develo$ments fuelling therise of nationalism in )ussia. 'he war in !hechnya resulting in the deaths of over ten thousand )ussiansoldiers, the steady eastward advancement of the US#led A'5 military alliance along )ussia7s %rittle western

%orders, the American military %ases in !entral Asia, the orange revolutions li%erating e=#Soviet countries from3oscow7s or%it, Washington7s missile defence shield $ro"ect that includes some central and eastern Euro$ean countries, the

violent terrorist attac&s of !hechnian radicals in various )ussian cities, the war in Georgia and most recentlythe incidents of *ecem%er @:@ $layed an im$ortant role in the rise of )ussian nationalism. 'hese factors, cou$led



with the loss of $restige, $ower and a $lummetting standard of living in the early $ost#Soviet days, has invigorated the re#

emergence of )ussian nationalism %oth within the 9remlin and in )ussia7s governing assem%ly /State *uma0. Parties with strong nationalistic $latforms %ased on racial or cultural views of Slavic su$eriority strengthened their $osition in *uma. 'he e=treme nationalist ladimir _hirinovs&y %ecame thethird in the $residential elections of :;;:. n :;; $residential elections, he $laced fifth with a R.? N share in the first round of the voting. His +i%eral*emocratic Party: received N of the vote in the :;; *uma elections. n the latest elections in @@?, the $arty received 2.:<N of the vote, acMuiring <@of the <R@ seats in the State *uma.

The Russian nationalist movement is peaceful – focuses on moral valuesiek (( # Ph.*., Head of *e$artment at the 3inistry of Foreign Affairs of the )e$u%lic of 'ur&ey -Anl, S$ring @::, /)ise of )ussian ationalism B Footste$s of the Slavo$hilesO( Understanding the *ynamics

of ationalism as a State Policy in )ussia0 www.alternatives"ournal.netCnewCdownloadD$df.$h$OfRDrev:.$df4

)ussian nationalism, al%eit in rise, cannot %e $erceived as the same notion that $revailed in the early years of the$ost#Soviet )ussia. n the $eriod of 8oris Jeltsin, nationalism was assorted with other ideologies such as communism. 'oday, )ussiannationalism is mostly focused on a $atriotic rhetoric and strengthening o$$osition against the moral ands$iritual decay of )ussian values. t has deviated into a multifaceted $henomenon, ranging from moderate dis$lays of national unity to those

e=tremist organi>ations that advocate intolerance and racism against those of non#Slavic origin. 'he )ussian 5rthodo= !hurch is activelyinvolved in the /state s$onsored0 new nationalism to $reserve /)ussian values0 against foreign and domesticthreats.

The ma.orit" of Russian nationalists want to maintain the status +uo – public opinion is not

shape& b" the elites:olchanov 3k # Associate Professor of Political Science, St. 'homas University, !anada, Ph.*. in $oliticalscience and $hiloso$hy -3i&hail A. /P5S'#!533US' A'5A+S3 AS A P5WE) )ES5U)!E( A )USSABU9)AE!53PA)S50 ationalities Pa$ers, ol. 2, o. , @@@ htt$(CC$eo$le.stu.caCmolchanCatm.$df4

Post#communist nationalism is articulated differently %y the elite and mass levels of society . *istinguishing %etween the two grou$s is im$ortant as a measure of control against swee$ing, and therefore inaccurate, generali>ations. 'hough$u%lic o$inion can %e mani$ulated, mani$ulation has its limits. Sociological $olls show that the %ellicosity of)ussia7s /national#$atriotic0 media is not matched %y an eMually intense reaction on the $art of the $o$ulace -'a%le :4. o more than one#third of those $olled su$$ort the idea of a $eaceful restoration of the USS).<R Even the )ussiaB8elarus Union is loo&ed at with restraint -'a%le 4, since an understanding of its $otential cost to )ussia and an increasingly critical view of +u&ashen&a7s $ractices ma&es the

$ro$osal less a$$ealing than nationalists would li&e.< 'he communistCnationalist media and its im$erialist rhetoric notwithstanding, mass

nationalism is chie fly guided %y a conservative longing for the good old times and the fear of furtherde$rivation. t has no use for e=$ansionist dreams of a forceful restoration of the former em$ire.



Russia oose )ukes

Russian safe'uar&s eBist an& the" woul&nt be able to set off the bomb an"wa"s:ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /uclear

Wea$ons0, Foreign Policy, anCFe%, ssue :??, $.2, $roMuest, A+X

I'errorists !ould Sna$ U$ )ussias +oose u&es.I 'hats a myth. t has %een so%erly, and re$eatedly, restated %y Harvard Universitys Graham Allison and others that

5sama %in +aden gave a grou$ of !hechens @ million in cash and two tons of o$ium in e=change for @ nuclear warheads. 'hen there is the Ire$ortI a%out how al Kaeda acMuired a )ussian#made suitcase nuclear %om% from !entral Asian

sources that had a serial num%er of ;;;; and could %e e=$loded %y mo%ile $hone.f these attention#gra%%ing rumors were true, one might thin& theterrorist grou$ -or its su$$osed !hechen su$$liers4 would have tried to set off one of those things %y now or that al

Kaeda would have left some trace of the wea$ons %ehind in Afghanistan after it made its very rushed e=it in @@:. nstead, nada. t turns out that getting ones hands on a wor&ing nuclear %om% is actually very difficult. n :;;2, a $ea& year for loose nu&e stories, the head of the U.S. Strategic !ommand made several visitsto )ussian military %ases and $ointedly re$orted, I want to $ut to %ed this concern that there are loose nu&es in )ussia. 3yo%servations are that the )ussians are indeed very serious a%out security.I Physicists )ichard Garwin and Georges !har$a& have re$orted, however, that thi

forceful firsthand testimony failed to $ersuade the intelligence community I$erha$s %ecause it 4 had X access to varied sources of information.I A decade later, with no credi%le re$orts of $urloined )ussian wea$ons, it rather loo&s li&e it was the general, not the s$oo&s, who had it right. 8y all re$orts -including Allisons4, )ussian nu&es have %ecome even more secure in recent years. t is scarcely roc&et science to conclude that an" nuke stolen inRussia is far more likel" to 'o off in Re& S+uare than in Times S+uare/ 'he )ussians seem to havehad no difficulty gras$ing this fundamental reality. Setting off a stolen nu&e might %e nearly im$ossi%le anywa y,

outside of 's < and disaster movies. Finished %om%s are routinely outfitted with devices that will trigger a nonnuclear e=$losion to destroy the %om% if it is tam$ered with. And, as Ste$hen Jounger, former head of nuclear wea$ons research

and develo$ment at +os Alamos ational +a%oratory, stresses, only a few $eo$le in the world &now how to cause an unauthori>ed detonation of a

nuclear wea$on. Even wea$ons designers and maintenance $ersonnel do not &now the multi$le ste$s necessary. n addition, some countries, including Pa&istan, store their wea$ons disassem%led, with the $ieces in se$arate

secure vaults.



)AT

)AT alliance is resilient an& will not collapseTechau ( # a )esearch Advisor at the A'5 *efense !ollege in )ome.-an, :? ovem%er, /A'5 and the )esilience of the Great 'ransatlantic 8argain0htt$(CCwww.is$ionline.itCitCdocumentsC!ommentaryD'echauD:?.::.@:@.$df4

Whether rushing through such a densely $ac&ed agenda will %e a%le to Muell the ever#$resent de#%ate a%outA'57s /unavoida%le0 and /unsto$$a%le0 demise remains to %e seen. n the $ast, s&e$#tics were %usy $ointingat a num%er of inner#alliance difficulties, some of them structural, to $redict the im$ending %rea&#u$ of A'5.

Among these difficulties were, ty$ically, a lac& of defense in#vestments, a widening ca$a%ilities ga$ %etween theUS and Euro$ean allies, and diverging threat $erce$tions amongst A'5 mem%er states. While these$ro%lems have indeed %een of su%stantial concern for A'5 leaders and analysts, they have not $roven deadlyfor A'5. For twenty years -and even longer4, A'5 has %een a%le to manage these issues while remainingrelevant for its old mem%ers and attractive for $otential new ones. 'hese $ro%lems could not undermine A'5

%ecause they were, ultimately, not su%stantial enough to destroy the grand strategic trade#off that is thefundament of the alliance. A closer loo& at this trade#off reveals the reasons for its sturdi#ness.

)AT wont collapse - its too valuable for its members Techau ( # a )esearch Advisor at the A'5 *efense !ollege in )ome.-an, :? ovem%er, /A'5 and the )esilience of the Great 'ransatlantic 8argain0

htt$(CCwww.is$ionline.itCitCdocumentsC!ommentaryD'echauD:?.::.@:@.$df4 Sur$risingly, with the $olitical and strategic landsca$es having changed so fundamentally since the :;R@s, thistransatlantic deal is still $roviding the %asis for the Euro$ean security architecture in the year @:@. *es$itethe Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact having disa$$eared, Euro$ean integra#tion having created wealth andsta%ility, and war in Euro$e loo&ing all %ut im$ossi%le, the %argain is still intact. o#one wants to wal& out.

WhyO First of all, the Euro$eans are, %y and large, una%le to $rovide the means to guarantee their own securityin case of an -unli&ely yet not unthin&a%le4 e=istential threat. !onseMuently, even those Euro$eans mosts&e$tical a%out US leadershi$, and those most friendly with the /new0 )ussia, are not see&ing any alternative tothe e=isting security setu$ in Euro$e. -+et alone those Euro$eans whose fear of )ussia ma&es them see A'5as their life insurance4. Furthermore, des$ite some occasional acrimony, Euro$eans are actually rathercontented with America7s %enign hegemony. 5n the other side of the deal, the United States, although having

re#channeled military and intellec#tual resources away from Euro$e to other world regions, most nota%ly Asia,a$$reciates the gener#al relia%ility of its Euro$ean $artners, understands that cultural similarities ma&eEuro$eans easier and %etter allies than could %e found anywhere else in the world, and still values its Euro$eanmili#tary installations as %eing strategically located for African and 3iddle Eastern contingencies. Also,

whether "ustified or not, American s&e$ticism of )ussia has never entirely faded away, serving as a constantreminder in Washington for the need of a continued $resence in Euro$e. n addition, A'57s historicallyun$recedented function as a creator of trust who ma&es every ally7s troo$ movements, $rocurements $ro"ectsand force structures utterly trans$arent to every%ody else in the alliance, remains as valua%le as ever. Finally,the West7s relative decline will ma&e defense and security coo$eration across the Atlantic even more im$ortant,ma&ing A'5, once more, the security agency organi>ation of choice. Safe to say then that A'5 does not runthe ris& of %eing disman#tled or rendered useless anytime soon. either the fact that Euro#$ean armies willmost li&ely %e even less ca$a%le after the latest rounds of %udget cuts and reforms, nor the ostentatious lac& of

in#terest for Euro$e %y consecutive American governments will, for now, %e $owerful enough to undermine thefundamental strategic considerations that &ee$ Euro$eans and Americans committed to the old transatlantic %argain B and to A'5 as its $rinci$le ar%iter.

ib"a proves )AT is a paper ti'er an& is no lon'er useful ,onavita 12(52((# the editor and $u%lisher of 3c+ean Pu%lishing !o.-*enny, une :, @::, /+esson from +i%ya( A'5 %ecoming useless $a$er tiger, si$honing $recious U.S.dollars0 htt$(CCwww.nashuatelegra$h.comCcouriere=$resscouriere=$ressouro$inionC;<@#<;Clesson#from#li%ya#nato#%ecoming#useless#$a$er.html4

So what have we learned from the American#to#A'5 military o$erations against +i%yaO A'5 is fast %ecoming a $a$er tiger, we have learned. early @ years ago, when Jugoslavia dissolved into civil war, the



orth American 'reaty 5rgani>ation that %inds the United States and most of western Euro$e into a defensealliance against the Soviet Union # even though there no longer is a Soviet Union # was a credi%le military force.

Jes, American forces led the assaults that %rought Ser%ia to the $eace ta%le and allowed 9osovo to %ecomeinde$endent, %ut A'5 was credi%le, right ne=t to its %orders. n raM, though many A'5 nations$artici$ated in the Persian Gulf War and a few "oined the United States in the su%seMuent invasion andoccu$ation of raM, A'5 wasnt formally involved. n Afghanistan, A'5 nations $ainfully su$$lied far fewertroo$s than were needed, ho%%ling the $ro%a%ly doomed#to#fail goal of ma&ing the tri%al#area morass we callIAfghanistanI into a for#real nation. n +i%ya, however, A'5 fell a$art. 'here is no effective o$$osition toA'5s air attac&s against the Gaddhafi regime. +i%yas air force has %een destroyed. ts anti#aircraft ca$a%ility

is, for $ractical $ur$oses, small arms. Jet once the United States, already chained down in raM and in Afghanistan, Ihanded offI the air#attac& mission to A'5, American military forces had to %e called %ac& in %ecause, for e=am$le, 8ritain has used u$ nearly all of its 'omahaw& missilesT Germany sits on the sidelinesTno Euro$ean forces can credi%ly o$erate intelligence and surveillance aircraft that do dou%le duty %y$in$ointing targets and safeguarding attac&ing $lanes and $ilots. We have long argued that World War andthe 9orean and !old wars are ancient history, and that the United States ought to $ull its troo$s out of South9orea, a$an and Germany.

<olitical &isputes an& economic challen'es make )AT weak an& powerlessVu&on' 12(92(( # a $rofessor at the University of ational *efense of the !hinese Peo$les +i%eration Army -Han, /Will A'5 %ecome a $a$er tigerO0 htt$(CCwww.chinadaily.com.cnCo$inionC@::#@C:?CcontentD:?<@R.htm4

Politically, dis$utes have never sto$$ed emerging regarding A'5s orientation and the direction of itsdevelo$ment after the !old War. Es$ecially, regarding the issue of ta&ing military actions %eyond A'5sdefense area, different mem%er countries or different $arties within a mem%er country all have differento$inions. 5nly a $art of the mem%er countries $artici$ated in most of A'5s military o$erations, such as theinterference in the civil war %etween 8osnia and Her>egovina, air stri&es in raM, sending troo$s to Afghanistanand the military o$eration in +i%ya in @::. 'his lac& of $artici$ation has %een es$ecially evident during thismilitary action in +i%ya. Since mem%er countries have different views regarding the issues of esta%lishing a no#fly >one and air stri&ing +i%ya, only less than a half of the mem%er countries $artici$ated in the action. 5nlyeight of them, less than one#third, $artici$ated in the air stri&e. Even several mem%er countries that are ta&ing$art in the air stri&e have e=$ressed that they would withdraw %ecause of domestic $ressure. 'herefore, Gateshad to call on Germany and Poland, who had refused to $artici$ate in the +i%ya action, to ma&e contri%utions,

and call on S$ain, 'ur&ey and Holland, who had not $artici$ated in the +i%ya air stri&e, to $lay more im$ortantroles. A'5 is also facing serious economic challenges. Gates said that inadeMuate military s$ending is a ma"orcontri%utor to the organi>ations serious military ca$a%ility ga$s. 'otal Euro$ean defense s$ending declined %ynearly :R $ercent in the $ast decade, and only five of the 2 A'5 mem%er states, namely the United States,United 9ingdom, France, Greece, and Al%ania, e=ceeded the agreed $ercent of G*P s$ending on defense.!ertain mem%ers have en"oyed A'5s security guarantee %ut failed to ta&e their share of res$onsi%ility incommon defense. Furthermore, the international financial crisis and Euro$ean sovereign de%t crisis haveinevita%ly forced A'5 countries to cut military s$ending. A'5 recently announced that in order to cut costs,it would reduce the num%er of its ma"or %ases from :: to seven, the num%er of its agencies res$onsi%le fors$ecific areas from :< to three, and the num%er of headMuarters $osts from :,@@@ to 2,2@@. Although it saidthe $ur$ose of the reforms was to ma&e the organi>ation Ileaner and more fle=i%le,I the fact that the untimelyannouncement was made in the midst of e=tended air stri&es in +i%ya has $roven the em%arrassing andhel$less situation facing A'5. 'he divergence in $olitical views and economic wea&ness will %e naturallyreflected in the military. orway announced on une :@ that it would reduce the num%er of its aircraft in theair stri&es on +i%ya from si= to four and would withdraw from all military action %y Aug. :. !anada is also$re$aring to withdraw from the air%orne warning and control system of A'5, which is res$onsi%le formonitoring and guiding aircraft to fly to s$ecified targets, in order to cut the governments %udget deficit.

)AT is weak an& its collapse is inevitableClou& 12((2(( B Staff Writer-*avid S., /Gates calls A'5 wea&0 htt$(CCwww.sentinelsource.comCnewsCnationalDworldCgates#calls#nato#

wea&CarticleDa:d2%<#df;#R%R#;?#@c%@@@cc@?:.html4



8)USSE+S 6 5utgoing *efense Secretary )o%ert 3. Gates lashed out at some of America7s closest Euro$ean allies ,

com$laining that A'57s sha&y air assault in +i%ya had laid %are shortcomings that are $ushing the alliancetoward /collective military irrelevance.0 n an unusual $u%lic re%u&e Friday, Gates condemned Euro$ean nations for

years of declining defense %udgets that he said have forced the United States to shoulder the heaviest load %yfar in the #year#old alliance. Gates noted with frustration that fewer than half the 2 nations in A'5 are engaged inthe +i%yan conflict , and fewer than a third are conducting airstri&es , even though the coalition unanimously %ac&ed the decision

to go to war to $rotect civilians from 3oammar Gadhafi7s forces. /'he mightiest military alliance in history is only :: wee&s intoan o$eration against a $oorly armed regime in a s$arsely $o$ulated country 6 yet many allies are %eginning torun short of munitions, reMuiring the U.S., once more, to ma&e u$ the difference ,0 he com$lained. Gates, who will retire

this month, said the U.S. is tired of engaging in e=tended, e=$ensive com%at missions for those who /don7t want to share the ris&s and the costs.0 'he/%lunt reality,0 he warned, is that !ongress and the American $u%lic have /dwindling a$$etite and $atience0 tos$end /increasingly $recious funds on %ehalf of nations that are a$$arently unwilling to devote the necessaryresources ... to %e serious and ca$a%le $artners in their own defense .0 Gates descri%ed a A'5 future that was/dim, if not dismal.0 8ut, he said, /it7s not too late0 for Euro$ean governments to %oost defense s$ending and strengthen their armed forces.

)AT is irrelevant an& its inevitable collapse wont matter #alt ( # the )o%ert and )ene 8elfer $rofessor of international relations at Harvard University-Ste$hen 3., Se$tem%er <, /s A'5 irrelevantO0htt$(CCwalt.foreign$olicy.comC$ostsC@:@C@;C<CisDnatoDirrelevant4

nstead, A'5 is sim$ly going to %e increasingly irrelevant . As wrote more than a decade ago( . . . the Atlantic Alliance is

%eginning to resem%le 5scar Wildes *orian Gray, a$$earing youthful and ro%ust as it grows older ## %ut %ecoming ever more infirm . 'he Washington 'reaty may remain in force, the various ministerial meetings may continue toissue earnest and u$%eat communiMues, and the 8russels %ureaucracy may &ee$ A'5s we% $age u$ andrunning#all these su$erficial routines will go on, $rovided the alliance isnt as&ed to actually do anything else.'he danger is that A'5 will %e dead %efore anyone notices , and we will only discover the cor$se the moment we want it to riseand res$ond.I +oo&ing %ac&, d say underestimated A'5s a%ility to rise from its sic&%ed. S$ecifically, it did manage to stagger through the 9osovo

War in :;;; and even invo&ed Article guarantees for the first time after ;C::. A'5 mem%ers have sent mostly to&en forces to Afghanistan - though the U nited S tates, as usual, has done most of the heavy lifting 4. 8ut even that rather modesteffort has %een e=hausting, and isnt li&ely to %e re$eated. A continent that is shrin&ing, aging, and that faces noserious threat of foreign invasion isnt going to %e an enthusiastic $artner for future adventures in nation#

%uilding, and it certainly isnt li&ely to $artici$ate in any future U.S. effort to %uild a %alancing coalition againsta rising !hina . 'he %ad news, in short, is that one of the cornerstones of the glo%al security architecture is li&ely to erode inthe years ahead . 'he good news , however, is that it wont matter very much if it does .

)AT wont collapse – sentimental attachment #alt ( # the )o%ert and )ene 8elfer $rofessor of international relations at Harvard University-Ste$hen 3., Se$tem%er <, /s A'5 irrelevantO0htt$(CCwalt.foreign$olicy.comC$ostsC@:@C@;C<CisDnatoDirrelevant4

5f course, given A'5s status as a sym%ol of transatlantic solidarity, no American $resident or Euro$ean leader will want to $reside over its demise . Plus, youve got all those %ureaucrats in 8russels and Atlanto$hiles inEuro$e and America who regard A'5 as their lifes wor& . For all these reasons, dont e=$ect A'5 to losemem%ers or dissolve . ll even %e somewhat sur$rised if foreign $olicy elites even admit that it has serious $ro%lems.

)AT is not a meanin'ful force – &efense cuts% Af'hanistan war% an& &isputes with Turke"

#alt ( # the )o%ert and )ene 8elfer $rofessor of international relations at Harvard University-Ste$hen 3., Se$tem%er <, /s A'5 irrelevantO0htt$(CCwalt.foreign$olicy.comC$ostsC@:@C@;C<CisDnatoDirrelevant4

onetheless, share William Pfaffs view that A'5 doesnt have much of a future . First, Euro$es economic woes are forcing&ey A'5 mem%ers -and es$ecially the U.9.4 to ado$t draconian cuts in defense s$ending . A'5s Euro$eanmem%ers already devote a much smaller $ercentage of G*P to defense than the U nited S tates does, and they arenotoriously %ad at translating even that modest amount into effective military $ower . 'he latest round of defensecuts means that Euro$e will %e even less a%le to ma&e a meaningful contri%ution to out#of#area missions in the future,

and those are the only serious military missions A'5 is li&ely to have . Second, the ill#fated Afghan adventure will have divisive long#term effects on alliance solidarity . f the U nited S tates and its SAF allies do not win a clearand decisive victory -a $ros$ect that seems increasingly remote4, there will %e a lot of %itter finger#$ointing afterwards . U.S.



leaders will com$lain a%out the restrictions and conditions that some A'5 allies -e.g., Germany4 $laced on their $artici$ation, while Euro$ean $u%lics will wonder why they let the United States get them %ogged down there for over a decade. t wont really matter who is really res$onsi%le for the failureT

the &ey $oint is that A'5 is unli&ely to ta&e on another mission li&e this one anytime soon -if ever4. And given

that Euro$e itself is su$$osedly sta%le, relia%ly democratic, and further $acified %y the EU, what other serious missions is A'5 su$$osed to $erformO

'he third $otential schism is 'ur&ey , which has %een a full A'5 mem%er since :;R@. m not as concerned a%out 'ur&eys recent foreign

$olicy initiatives as some $eo$le are, %ut theres little dou%t that An&aras di$lomatic $ath is diverging on a num%er of &ey issues. 'he UnitedStates, United 9ingdom, France, and Germany have %een steadily ratcheting u$ $ressure on ran, while 'ur&eyhas moved closer to 'ehran %oth di$lomatically and economically. 'ur&ey is increasingly at odds with

Washington on srael#Palestine issues, which is %ound to have negative re$ercussions in the U.S. !ongress.)ising slamo$ho%ia in %oth the United States and Euro$e could easily reinforce these frictions. And given that

'ur&ey has A'5s largest military forces -after the United States4 and that A'5 o$erates largely %y consensus, ama"or rift could have $araly>ing effects on the alliance as a whole. Put all this together, and A'5s future as ameaningful force in world affairs doesnt loo& too %right. 5f course, the usual res$onse to such gloomy $rognostications isto $oint out that A'5 has e=$erienced crises throughout its history -Sue>, anyoneO4, and to remind $eo$le that it has always

managed to weather them in the $ast. 'rue enough, %ut most of these rifts occurred within the conte=t of the !old War, whenthere was an o%vious reason for leaders in Euro$e and America to &ee$ dis$utes within %ounds .

)AT lacks the political will to a&&ress issues0o"ner ( # managing editor of the Atlantic !ouncil-ames, Se$tem%er 2, /A'5s )elevance0 htt$(CCwww.acus.orgCnewDatlanticistCnatos#relevance4

Jesterdays gathering of scholars and $olicyma&ers , most of them Atlanticists from way %ac&, were mostly at a loss for how to

reignite A'5 in the wa&e of Afghanistan . ndeed, it was as $essimistic a gathering as ve seen on the su%"ect. How gloomy was itO

+uncheon s$ea&er 8o% 9agan , who eight summers ago told us It is time to sto$ $retending that Euro$eans and Americansshare a common view of the world, or even that they occu$y the same world ,I was among the most o$timistic

voices. one of the $anelists in the Political Will discussion had any illusion that there actually was any $olitical will in A'5 . At least, not in the $u%lics of Western Euro$e. 9urt ol&er, a career di$lomat who served as President George W. 8ushs am%assador to A'5, said that It is hard to overstate A'5s lac& of unified commitment and vision.I And !ouncil senior advisor Harlan Ullman , as&ing the first Muestion, o%served that IPolitical will is a $olite way of saying relevance .I He didnt find much disagreement . 'he closest we got was osef annings o%servation that Irelevance isnot a%solute.I 8ut even he conceded that I"o%sI was the thing most voters care a%out these days and that defense s$ending was li&ely to have to %e soldon that %asis. Former A'5 assistant secretary general Edgar 8uc&ley, first from the floor and later as a $anelist in the A'5 3ilitary 'ransformationsession, argued that we need the e=t 8ig dea around which to %uild the Alliance. He suggested moving well %eyond traditional military and securityroles to wor&ing on issues such as disaster relief and energy. Former assistant secretary of defense Fran& 9ramer, suggested that the Alliance must wor&together on cy%er security. 5thers offered related ideas for solving the $ro%lem %y e=$anding it. A few, 9agan included, argued that we should move in

the o$$osite direction( arrowing the mission to the defense of Euro$e or, $erha$s, Euro$e I$lus.I 8ut

its not at all o%vious why the American ta=$ayer would want to continue to $ay the lions share of the cost of an Alliance that e=ists only todefend a continent more than ca$a%le of $aying for its own defense . ol&er o%served that the new Strategic !once$t ,to %e unveiled in +is%on ovem%er :;#@, was su$$osed to answer these Muestions. 8ut the com%ination of the glo%aleconomic colla$se and the worsening of the situation in Afghanistan has li&ely &illed that am%ition . 3ost li&ely,

well end u$ &ic&ing the can down the road a %it, agreeing in the meantime on some vague $latitudes a%outmutual coo$eration . 'heres not much dou%t that well need A'5 again. 5ne can only ho$e it will indeed $lug along until we can again agree itsfor and generate enough $olitical will to man it.

)AT is weak – lack of US involvement,enite (( # the *irector of A'5Source and a onresident Senior Fellow in the nternational SecurityProgram.-orge, A$ril R, /A'5s +ast !hance0 htt$(CCwww.acus.orgCnatosourceCnatos#last#chance4

'he devolution of A'5 as a $remier 'ransatlantic security organi>ation has $roceeded in tandem with the decline of American influence on the 5ld !ontinent, a good %it of which a$$ears to %e self#induced. n the larger Euro$ean conte=t, the United

States no longer leads on &ey security issues, instead assuming the role of an increasingly %ehind#the#scenesena%ler. 'he 5%ama Administration7s domestic $riorities, too, cou$led with challenges in Asia and the 3iddle East, have madethe 'ransatlantic ne=us even less $rominent in American thin&ing. Finally, the 5%ama Administration also $lacesa $remium on engagement with difficult states and $artnershi$ initiatives outside the core of A'5. 'hePresident himself rarely s$ea&s of allies, and in his Se$tem%er @@; address to the U General Assem%ly he said that the/alignments of nations rooted in the cleavages of a long#gone !old War0 ma&e no sense /in an interconnected

world.0 'hat, if not a re$udiation of A'5, is the closest thing to it uttered %y any U.S. President since Harry S.'ruman. Germany is fast emerging as the !ontinent7s $olitical leader. s the German $olitical class ca$a%le of lifting its ga>e %eyond its own %orders,and then %eyond the %orders of a Euro$e very nearly whole and free, to %e a leading $artner with the United States in guiding the 'ransatlantic



relationshi$ to wor& to %enefit the whole worldO 'hat, to $ut it mildly, remains to %e seen. . . . Even Euro$ean countries that have historically

%een a%le to maintain a meaningful set of ca$a%ilities, such as France and the United 9ingdom, have made or $lan to ma&e significantreductions in defense s$ending. 'his trend, in com%ination with /Afghanistan fatigue0, is sa$$ing A'5mem%ers7 willingness to $ersevere with current o$erations. 'o com$ensate for these flagging %udgets and

%ac&%ones, A'5 HeadMuarters in 8russels has ado$ted a %u>>word ins$ired %y the ew Strategic !once$t( /smart defense.0 'hisa$$ears to mean doing more with less %y $ooling resources and sharing ca$a%ilities. o one should dou%t that the allies could o$erate a lot smarter thanthey have, %ut /smart $ower0 may end u$ %eing little more than a $retty mas& covering an ugly face. At +is%on A'5 recommitted itself to strengthening

e=isting $artnershi$s, reaching out to )ussia, !hina and ndia, and %etter resourcing the SAF mission in Afghanistan. 8ut %u>>words alone can7t$rovide the fundamentals A'5 is missing . . . . At a time of )ussian resurgence, the ongoing reorientation of U.S. $olicy toward Asia and

the fracturing within the alliance itself, Euro$e7s old refle= is to loo& to Washington for leadershi$. n Washington,however, no such leadershi$ is on offer. 'he days when Washington led from out in front are li&ely %ehind us.

+eft to their own devices, the Euro$eans cannot re$lace the traditional American role with one of their ownma&ing. And so Euro$e continues %oth to critici>e Washington and to long for its direction. We have come to the $oint that A'5 has

%een reduced to something li&e the 'ransatlantic family7s used, somewhat %eat#u$ second car. Everyone admitsthat we still need it, %ut no one wants to %e the family



<roliferation – eneric

,e skeptical of their evi&ence – powerful lobb"ists overblow the threat of proliferation?i&&% ( B *irector of Strategy Q )esearch at the World uclear Association ?C, /uclear $roliferation ris&B is it vastly overratedO0, htt$(CCwww.neimaga>ine.comCstory.as$Ostory!ode@R;:, A+X

'he real $ro%lem is that nuclear non#$roliferation and security have powerful lobb" 'roups behin& them,largely claiming to have nothing against nuclear $ower as such, a$art from the dangers of misuse of nucleartechnology. n fact in Washington *!, home of the US federal government, there is a cottage industry of lo%%y grou$s dedicated to this. 'hose

who o$$ose their scaremongering -and it essentially amounts to no more than this4 are castigated as %eing in the industry7s $oc&et or acting unres$onsively to allegedly genuinely

e=$ressed $u%lic fears. Pointing out that very few new countries will acMuire nuclear $ower %y even @@, and that very few of these will li&ely e=$ress any interest in acMuiring enrichment or re$rocessing facilities, seems to go com$letely over

their heads. n any case, nuclear fuel cycle technologies are very e=$ensive to acMuire and it ma&es $erfect sense to %uy nuclear fuel from the e=isting commercial

international su$$ly chain. 'his already guarantees security of su$$ly, so moves towards in ternational fuel %an&s are essentially irrelevant, while measures su$$osedly to increase the$roliferation resistance of the fuel cycle are unwarranted, $articularly if they im$ose additional costs on theindustry.

4mpirics &isprove the casca&e effect,el.ac% @2(@ B Ph* from 3onash University 3ar&o, /Have We )eally )eached a uclear 'i$$ing PointO0,uclear )esonances, htt$(CCscisec.netCO$2, A+X

'he image invo&es what in networ& theory is called a glo%al cascade. 'he cascade of $roliferation argument is

highly reliant on the s$read of nuclear technology , es$ecially fuel cycle technology such as uranium enrichment and $lutonium re$rocessing $lants. 'his is often s$o&en of in the conte=t

of a glo%al renaissance in the use of nuclear energy, es$ecially in Asia. We currently have ; nuclear wea$on states. Since :;<R that eMuates to a $rettyslow rate of $roliferation. Furthermore, the em$irical record does not really su$$ort the cascade idea. do not %elieve itis $ossi%le to argue that we have ; nuclear wea$on states %ecauses of an interlin&ed cascade effect thato$erated %etween these ; states. 5ne might want to argue, however, that the cascade model fits in Asia. !hina $roliferated, then ndia ado$ted a recessed deterrent then did Pa&istan. n :;;2 ndia and

Pa&istan went from a recessed to an overt deterrent.uclear wea$ons cascades ha$$en, there%y, in vulnera%le local clusters. !hina and South Asia was a

vulnera%le cluster. Some argue that orth 9orea, a$an and South 9orea re$resents another vulnera%le cluster. 'hus farorth 9orean $roliferation has not led to a localised cascade.

)ukes bestow rationalit" – their creation prevents a''ressiveness #alt$% ( B Emeritus Ford Professor of Political Science at the University of !alifornia at 8er&eley and seniorresearch associate at !olum%ia Universitys Salt>man nstitute of Wat and Peace Studies 9enneth, /s uclear_ero the 8est 5$tionO0, 'he ational nterest, Se$C5ct ssue :@;, $. 22, A+X

With the dawn of the nuclear age, $eace has $revailed among those who have the wea$ons or en"oy their$rotection. Those who like peace shoul& love nuclear weapons/ 'hey are the only wea$ons everinvented that wor& decisively against their own use. 'hose who advocate a >ero o$tion argue in effect that we should eliminate the cause of the e=tensive $eace the nuclear world has

en"oyed.ndia and Pa&istan $rovide an o%"ect lesson. When they tested their warheads in 3ay of :;;2, "ournalists, academics and $u%lic

officials $redicted that war and chaos on the su%continent would ensue. 'he result, as e=$ected, was to ensure a $rolonged $eace %etween countries that had fought three wars since inde$endence and continued for a time to s$ill %lood in the conflict over 9ashmir. 'hat countries with nuclear ca$a%ilities donot fight wars against one another is a lesson we should have learned. 'he $ro$osition has held e=actly where the $ros$ects for war seemed the %rightest, for e=am$le, %etween the United States and the

Soviet Union, %etween the Soviet Union and the Peo$les )e$u%lic of !hina, and %etween ndia and Pa&istan. ew nuclear states are often greeted with dire fore%odings( s the government sta%leO Are the rulers sensi%leO 'he answers may %e

disconcerting. Jet every new nuclear nation, however %ad its $revious re$utation, has %ehaved e=actly li&e all of the oldones. 'he effect of having nuclear wea$ons overwhelms the character of the states that $ossess them. !ountries

with nuclear wea$ons, no matter how mean and irrational their leaders may seem to %e, no matter how unsta%le their governments a$$ear

to %e, do not launch ma"or conventional attac&s on other countries, let alone nuclear ones. Even conventional attac&s can all too easily escalate out of control and lead to an

e=change of nuclear warheads. With conventional wea$ons, countries worry a%out winning or losing. With nuclear wea$ons, countries worry a%out surviving or %eing annihilated. )uclear weapons in&ucecaution all aroun& ( thin& of the !u%an missile crisis, or thin& of the e=ternal %ehavior of !hina during thefrightful decade of the !ultural )evolution.

)<T an& IA4A safe'uar&s curb state-base& prolif ?i&&% ( B *irector of Strategy Q )esearch at the World uclear Association une, Steve, /uclear$roliferation ris& B is it vastly overratedO0, uclear Engineering nternational, $.:@, gale infotrac, A+X

Proliferation of nuclear materials and technology and their integration into wea$ons are nota%ly moresu%stantive ris&s, $articularly as they will li&ely involve sovereign states with their greater resources a%ove those of a terrorist organisation. !ritics of nuclear

$ower em$hasise that designing a nuclear %om% itself is not $articularly difficult -even if, as 3ueller em$hasises, actually manufacturing and delivering a wea$on certainly is4. So much of the world anti#

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$roliferation regime is %ased on controls on fissile materialsT if the necessary $lutonium or highly enricheduranium is not availa%le either %y diversion from civil uses or $roduction in a local facility, a wea$on isim$ossi%le. t is therefore necessary for nuclear $ower critics to focus on alleged wea&nesses in theinternational nuclear safeguards regime or in the security of nuclear materials trans$ort, $lus the $ossi%le s$read of enrichment and re$rocessing technologies to countries who may have an interest %eyond

normal civil uses. While there is no room for com$lacency,the real ris&s are actually as remote as those associated with nuclear facility security and mean that attem$ts to stiffen safeguards even further will encounter reasona%le o%"ections. evertheless,over the $ast R years, the nternational Atomic Energy

Agencys -AEA4 safeguards system under the uclear on$roliferation 'reaty -P'4 has %een a cons$icuousinternational success in cur%ing the diversion of civil uranium into military uses. 3ost countries have indeedrenounced nuclear wea$ons, recognising that $ossessing of them would threaten rather than enhance national security. 'hey have therefore em%raced the P' as a $u%lic commitment to use nuclear materials

and technology only for $eaceful $ur$oses. Parties to the P' agree to acce$t technical safeguards measures a$$lied %y the AEA,com$lemented %y controls on the e=$ort of sensitive technology from countries such as U9 and USA through voluntary %odies such as the uclear Su$$liers Grou$

-SG4.Safeguards reMuire that o$erators of nuclear facilities maintain and declare detailed accounting records ofall movements and transactions involving nuclear material. 'he aim is to deter the diversion of nuclear material from $eaceful use %y ma=imising the ris& of early detection. At a %roader level they $rovide assurance to the

international community that countries are honouring their treaty commitments to use nuclear materials and facilities e=clusively for $eaceful $ur$oses. n this way safeguards are a service %othto the international community and to individual states, who recognise that it is in their own interest todemonstrate com$liance with these commitments. All P' non#wea$ons states must acce$t these full#sco$e safeguards, while facility#s$ecific safeguards a$$ly in the five wea$ons

states -USA, )ussia, U9, France and !hina4 $lus the non#P' states -ndia, Pa&istan and srael4.

<rolif is inevitable – states cant be &eterre& once the"ve starte& to proliferate?i&&% ( B *irector of Strategy Q )esearch at the World uclear Association une, Steve, /uclear$roliferation ris& B is it vastly overratedO0, uclear Engineering nternational, $.:@, gale infotrac, A+X

t is li&ely that more countries will foolishly choose to acMuire nuclear wea$ons. f they are really determined todo so, there is little reall" that the worl& can &o to prevent them ##the main effort has to %e indissuading them from this course of action. How many countries will have nuclear wea$ons %y @@ is hard tosay, %ut there could well %e a total of :R %y then. 3ueller argues that this increase, in itself, will neither $reventnor cause wars, %ut will im$ose su%stantial costs on the countries concerned. A$art from the costs of wea$ons $rogrammes diverting needed economic

resources away from more $roductive activities,such countries are li&ely to %e faced with economic sanctions which would create severeeconomic hardshi$ for their citi>ens %ut %e unli&ely to deter them. So there has to %e a %etter way. 'he $ro%lems of regions suchas the 3iddle East will have to %e resolved %y negotiation, as the $resence of many nuclear wea$ons states willsolve nothing. n the a%sence of leadershi$ %y madmen, the s$ectre of mutually#assured destruction will merelymaintain the status MuoT acMuiring nuclear wea$ons will grant a country more criticism than international $restige. 3eanwhile, the commercial nuclear sector will ho$efully %e allowed to flourish without too many

$eo$le chi$$ing away at the margins %y raising unwarranted fears a%out its activities -and im$osing additional financial costs, which is what it eventually amounts to4.



<roliferation – IranThe threat is .ust smoke-an&-mirrors – theres no evi&ence of an Iranian nuclear weaponspro'ram6ersh% 121 B Pulit>er Pri>e#winning investigative "ournalist, uncovered 3y +ai and A%u Ghrai% Seymour,/ran and the 8om%T Annals of ational Security0, 'he ew Jor&er, olume 2?, ssue :, $. , $roMuest, A+X

s ran actively trying to develo$ nuclear wea$onsO 3em%ers of the 5%ama Administration often tal& as if this were a foregone conclusion, as did their $redecessors under George W. 8ush. 'here is a large %ody of evidence, however, including some of Americas most highly classified

intelligence assessments, suggesting that the United States could %e in danger of re$eating a mista&e similar to the one made with Saddam Husseins raM eight years ago##allowing an=ieties a%out the $olicies of a tyrannical regime to distort our estimations of the states military ca$acities and intentions. 'hetwo most recent ational ntelligence Estimates -..E.s4 on ranian nuclear $rogress, re$resenting the %est "udgment of the senior officers from all the ma"or American intelligence

agencies,have stated that there is no conclusive evi&ence that Iran has ma&e an" effort to buil& the bomb since @@. *es$ite years of covert o$erations inside ran, e=tensive satellite imagery, and the recruitment of many ranian intelligence assets, the UnitedStates and its allies, including srael, have %een una%le to find irrefuta%le evidence of an ongoing hiddennuclear#wea$ons $rogram in ran, according to intelligence and di$lomatic officials here and a%road. 5ne American defense consultant told me that as yet there is Ino smo&ing calutron,I although, li&e

many Western government officials, he is convinced that ran is intent on %ecoming a nuclear state sometime in the future. 'he general an=iety a%out the ranian regime is firmly grounded. President 3ahmoud Ahmadine"ad has re$eatedlyMuestioned the Holocaust and e=$ressed a desire to see the state of srael eliminated, and he has defied the @@ United ations resolution calling on ran to sus$end its nuclear#enrichment $rogram. 'ehran is also active in arming He>%ollah in+e%anon and Hamas in Ga>a. ran is heavily invested in nuclear technology, and has a $ower $lant ready to go on line in the $ort city of 8ushehr, with a second in the $lanning stage. n the $ast four years, it has tri$led the num%er of centrifuges

in o$eration at its main enrichment facility at atan>, which is %uried dee$ underground. 5n the other hand, the ranian enrichment $rogram is %eing monitored %y thenternational Atomic Energy Agency, and atan> and all rans ma"or declared nuclear installations are undere=tensive video surveillance. .A.E.A. ins$ectors have e=$ressed frustration with rans level of coo$eration and cited an increase in $roduction of uranium, %ut they have %eenuna%le to find any evidence that enriched uranium has %een diverted to an illicit wea$ons $rogram.

StuBnet cripple& Irans nuclear pro'ram – its facin' si'nificant setbacks,altimore 0ewish Times% (23( B news$a$er /!y%er War 5n ran0, olume :2, ssue , $. <, $roMuest,

A+X

Are we still %ut months from a sustained sraeli air attac& against rans do>en or so nuclear installations, orhas the threat %een $ushed offO 'his $ast wee&ends revelations ma&e one ho$e the latter scenario to %e true, %ut one would %e more than foolish to declare Imission accom$lished.I Still, it seemsthat a com%ination of cy%er warfare, rational sanctions and di$lomatic isolation aimed at ran is $aying off. Such

thoughts come in the wa&e of revelations %y 'he ewJor& 'imes that the com$uter worm Stu=net, introduced into ranian software in the last half# year or so, has set %ac& 'eherans nuclear $rogram %y anywhere from several months to several years. t hasre$ortedly corru$ted u$ to one#fifth of rans thousands of nuclear centrifuges, devices used to enrich uranium for %om%s. 'he news$a$er detailed how

the Germany com$any Siemens lent a hand in hel$ing the United States and srael do the damage. n @@2, Siemens, whose com$uter controllers are in com$uters in venues such as the atan> ranian nuclear reactor, shared with the Americans

the wea&nesses of the system # a&a, how to attac& it. 'he Americans and the sraelis then went to wor&, somehow introducing Stu=net into

the ranian networ&. As a result, the centrifuges %egan tearing themselves a$art, %ut indicators &e$t re$ortingthat all was fine. *es$ite what some critics of the 5%ama administration would say, the White House has fully su$$orted this $art of the U.S.#sraeli relationshi$. 'he $lan, first initiated %y President George W. 8ush, was s$ed

u$ %y President 8arac& 5%ama. 'hat ma&es sense as he has re$eatedly declared that reducing nuclear $roliferation is a $rimary foreign $olicy goal. n the face of so many un&nowns, it is increasingly clear thatthe United States and srael have engaged in a cy%er war with the ranians for some time. 'he outcome of this round of %attle, at least, is

much $refera%le to a conventional stri&e.

StuBnet &estro"e& the pro'ram – laun&r" list Albri'ht et al% 32(7 B [President and !hairman of the nstitute for Science and nternational Security[[Senior Analyst at the nstitute for Science and nternational Security [[[Senior Analyst at the nstitute forScience and nternational Security [*avid Al%right, [[Paul 8rannan, [[[!hristina Walrond, /Stu=net 3alwareand atan>( U$date of SS *ecem%er , @:@ )e$ort0, nstitute for Science and nternational Security)e$ort, htt$(CCisis#online.orgCu$loadsCisis#re$ortsCdocumentsCstu=netDu$dateD:RFe%@::.$df , A+X

m$act of Stu=net. At the time of the attac&, the atan> FEP contained a total of almost ;,@@@ )#: centrifuges. 'he destruction of :,@@@ out of ;,@@@ centrifuges may nota$$ear significant, $articularly since ran too& ste$s to maintain and increase its +EU $roduction rates during this same

$eriod. However, the AEA safeguards data -see ta%le :4 su$$ort that the attac& delayed ran from e=$anding the num%er of enriching centrifuges, in

essence&ee$ing large sections of the $lant idle for many months. ran is also facing shortages of raw materials to %uild )#: centrifuges. t may have the materials to %uild only :,@@@ to :R,@@@ )#: centrifuges. With ;,@@@ centrifuges already de$loyed at atan>, and an estimated :,@@@ centrifuges %ro&en during routine o$eration

adding in the :,@@@ centrifuges destroyed %y Stu=net %rings the total to ::,@@@ centrifuges de$loyed over the lifetime of the FEP.:: ran may %e a$$roaching a limit on the num%er of)#: centrifuges it can %uild, ma&ing those destroyed %y Stu=net more significant than the num%er wouldim$ly. 'here are also other, less tangi%le deleterious effects. 'o the e=tent it did not &now what caused the destruction, ran would have faced multi$le Muestions a%out its centrifuge o$erations. n $articular, a failure of this magnitude

would have %een a direct challenge to the $rogram7s Muality assurance $rogram, which is fundamental to successfully o$erating these high#$recision machines. ran has s$ent considera%le effort increating a relia%le Muality assurance $rogram, where s$ecialists carefully test each centrifuge com$onent loo&ing for out#of#s$ec $arts. Without &nowing thecause was malware, ran would have struggled to understand this failure and li&ely would have lost valua%letime worrying a%out more failures. 5nce ran learned of the reason for the failure of so many centrifuges, it must have felt a heightened sense of vulnera%ility to outside attac&. 'he immense detail in

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/stuxnet_update_15Feb2011.pdf

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/stuxnet_update_15Feb2011.pdf



Stu=net a%out the atan> enrichment $lant must have also unsettled the ranians, as it demonstrated that foreign intelligence agencies had learned a considera%le amount of information a%out their secret o$erations, far %eyond what the AEA

&new. 5nly an insider could have o%tained so much detail. 5ne official at a Western intelligence agency said that since outsiders &new so much a%out atan>, ran wouldtend to hesitate a%out %uilding a secret centrifuge $lant out of fear of getting caught. 'hat fear was alreadymagnified after Western intelligence agencies e=$osed the secret gas centrifuge $lant near the holy city of Komin 5cto%er @@;. ran must also feel less secure a%out the goods its smuggling networ&s acMuire a%road for its nuclear $rograms. t may need to resort to relying moreheavily on reverse engineering and domestic $roduction of a greater variety of advanced industrial goods for its centrifuge $rogram.However, ran haslimited advanced industrial ca$a%ilities and has encountered difficulties in successfully reverse engineeringeMui$ment and technology. 'hus, such a strategy would cause delays in its centrifuge $rogram and reMuire ranto use goods of far less Muality that are more $rone to failure.

;ear-mon'erin' over Iranian proliferation is Israeli propa'an&a – Iranian prolif woul&stabili$e the re'ionSeale% ( B leading writer and author on to$ics concerning the 3iddle East A$ril, Patric&, /*angerousHysteria 5ver rans uclear Program0, 'he Washington )e$ort on 3iddle East Affairs, olume ;, ssue ,$.@, $roMuest, A+X

5%amas $ro#srael critics have accused him of Ia$$easement.I At Fe%ruarys 3unich security conference, U.S. Sen. oe +ie%erman, chairman of the Senate

!ommittee on Homeland Security, declared( IWe have a choice here( to go to tough economic sanctions to ma&e di$lomacy wor& or we will face the $ros$ect of military action against ran.I And he added, IA nuclear#armed ran would $rovo&e chaos in the 3iddle East, send world oil $rices soaring and end any ho$e of a$eaceful solution to the sraeli#Palestinian conflict.I These pre&ictions woul& seem to be entirel"mistaken/ Far from $rovo&ing chaos, an ranian %om% could stabili$e the re'ion and cur% sraelsaggressive %ehavior toward its neigh%ors#something the Ara%s have not managed to achieve in the $ast si= decades. ndeed, %y creating a %alance of $ower with srael,and there%y limiting its freedom of action, ran might actually encourage srael to ma&e $eace with itsneigh%ors, including the Palestinians. 'he only develo$ment which would send oil $rices soaring is an sraeli attac& on ran. All

the indications are that the de%ate concerning what to do a%out ran will continue without either side landing a decisive %low. t may %e that events inside ran will %ring matters to a head. Fe%ruary :: was the anniversary of the :;?; revolution. 'he whole world was watching to see whether anti#government $rotests would manage to affect the future $olicies

of the slamic )e$u%lic.

)o casca&in' prolif <otter an& :ukhat$hanova% ( B [Sam unn and )ichard +ugar Professor of on$roliferation Studies atthe 3onterey nstitute of nternational Studies [[ad"unct $rofessor at the 3onterey nstitute of nternationalStudies ;C, [William, [[Gau&har, /s uclear Proliferation !ontagiousO0, ames 3artin !enter foron$rolifeartion Studies, htt$(CCcns.miis.eduCstoriesC:@@;DcontagiousDiht.htm, A+X

*o the facts on the ground su$$ort this $rognosisO 5ur multiyear study of the dynamics of nuclear $roliferation for a do>en Iusual sus$ectsI suggests otherwise. t indicates that the further s$read of nuclear wea$ons is neither imminent nor li&ely to involve a Ichain reaction.I Although sur$rising in terms of its challenge to conventional wisdom a%out a $roliferation

$andemic,our conclusion is consistent with the historically slow $ace of $roliferation and the e=ce$tionalcircumstances that must $ertain for states to a%andon nuclear restraint. t also highlights the im$ortant role $layed %y individual leaders and domestic

$olitical coalitions for whom $ursuit of nuclear wea$ons $oses ma"or $olitical, economic and security costs. Egy$t 6 thedomino most often identified as li&ely to fall in the wa&e of an overt ranian nuclear wea$ons $rogram 6 is acase in $oint. As ames Walsh demonstrates in his case study for our $ro"ect, Egy$ts motivations to acMuire nuclear wea$ons were more intense in $ast decades than they are today or are li&ely to %e in the n ear future, while

disincentives are as severe if not more so than in the $ast. Why would !airo decide to emulate an ranian nuclear $osture when it has so longtolerated a far more $otent sraeli nuclear wea$ons ca$a%ilityO Why would it ris& severe damage to its relations

with the United States, not to mention the loss of huge amounts of economic and military aid, for the veryuncertain %enefits of an e=$ensive wea$ons $rogramO 5ne should also %e s&e$tical that 'ur&ey, another$ros$ective lin& in an ran#instigated chain reaction, would a%andon its Muest for mem%ershi$ in the Euro$eanUnion

and "eo$ardi>e its A'5 security guarantees to emulate ran. And what a%out Saudi Ara%ia, another 3iddle Eastern &ing$inO What $ro%lem, internal or otherwise, would the &ingdom solve with nuclear wea$onsO 'o suggest that the $rover%ial$roliferation s&y is not yet falling is not to dismiss the ris& of wea$ons s$read. ndeed, ranian acMuisition of nuclear wea$ons, or military action against ran, could well shift the %alance of incentives and disincentives in the $roliferation calculus

for a num%er of states. f history is any guide, however, these factors will %e country#s$ecific, and even if one nation shoulddecide to disavow its non$roliferation commitments, there is little reason to e=$ect an e$idemic.

Depen&ence on the US prevents casca&in' prolif 0akobsen an& Rahi'h-A'hsan% ( B [Associate Professor at the *e$artment of Political Science at theUniversity of !o$enhagen [[Assistant Professor at the *e$artment of Society and Glo%ali>ation at )os&ildeUniversity [Peter, [[Ali, /'he )ise of ran( How *ura%le, How *angerousO0, 'he 3iddle East ournal,

Autumn, olume <, ssue <, $. RR;, $roMuest, A+X

A uclear Arms )ace is ot nevita%le 3any fear that a nuclear ran will trigger a nuclear arms race in the3iddle EastTR some argue it has already started.R? According to this logic, Saudi Ara%ia will feel com$elled to follow suit if ran goes

http://cns.miis.edu/stories/100923_contagious_iht.htm

http://cns.miis.edu/stories/100923_contagious_iht.htm



nuclear. Egy$t will feel $ressure to do the same to maintain its credentials as the leader of the Ara% world vis##vis Saudia Ara%ia, and $ressure will then mount on 'ur&ey to go nuclear to maintain its status as a regional Igreat $ower,I

and so on.R2 'hat the ris& of an arms race is real is underlined %y the fact that : countries in the 3iddle East haveannounced new or revived $lans to $ursue or e=$lore nuclear $rograms since @@.R; 'he danger of an armsrace is not imminent, however, as the current as$irations for nuclear energy in the region will ta&e :@#:R yearsto fulfill.@ 'his leaves considera%le time for the US to $ersuade Saudi Ara%ia, Egy$t, and 'ur&ey not to go nuclear, and the US is in a $osition to give them an offer they cannot refuse. Since all these states and the rest of the G!!

countries effectively de$end u$on the US for their security in the interim until they can develo$ their own nuclear deterrent, the US can offer to e=tend its nuclear um%rella tothem and $rovide continued military, economic, and $olitical su$$ort contingent on their not develo$ingnuclear wea$ons. 'his tactic wor&ed in similar circumstances with 'aiwan and South 9orea during the !old

War, and there is no reason why it should not wor& in the 3iddle East as well.: 'he $enalties the US can

im$ose if they renege on this $romise are $rohi%itive and since none of these countries have an interest in a$$easing ran unless forced to do so for lac& of an alternative, it is hard to

see why they should not acce$t such an offer. t is also inconceiva%le that the US would refrain from e=tending such an offer to its alliesgiven the strategic im$ortance that it attaches to the region. Since ran is not ca$a%le of hitting the USmainland with nuclear missiles, the US would not have to sacrifice ew Jor& to $rotect Amman and this ma&es e=tended nuclear deterrenceinherently more credi%le in the 3iddle East than it was in Western Euro$e during the !old War.

Iranian nukes will be emplo"e& in a &eterrent role onl" :ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /uclear


3oreover,ran will most li&ely IuseI any nuclear ca$a%ility in the same way all other nuclear states have( for $restige

-or ego#sto&ing4 and deterrence. ndeed, as strategist and o%el laureate 'homas Schelling suggests, &eterrence is about the onl" value the weapons mi'ht have for Iran/ Such devices, he $oints out, Ishould %e too $recious to give away or to sellIand Itoo $recious to waste &illing $eo$leI when they could ma&e other countries Ihesitant to consider militaryaction.I f a nuclear ran %randishes its wea$ons to intimidate others or get its way, it will li&ely find that thosethreatened, rather than ca$itulating or rushing off to %uild a com$ensating arsenal, will ally with others -including

conceiva%ly srael4 to stand u$ to toe intimidation. 'he $o$ular notion that nuclear wea$ons furnish a country with the a%ility toIdominateI its area has little or no historical su$$ort# in the main, nuclear threats over the last @ years have either %een ignored or met with countervailing o$$osition, not with

timorous acMuiescence. t was conventional military might# grunts and tan&s, not nu&es# that earned the United States andthe Soviet Union their res$ective s$heres of influence during the !old War.



In&o–<ak

Doesnt 'o nuclear – the" will sta" conventionalChari 5B P.). !hari is a )esearch Professor. IP!S uclear !risis, Escalation !ontrol, and *eterrence in South Asia0 P.). !hari Wor&ing Pa$er ersion :.@ August @@ htt$(CCwww.stimson.orgCimagesCu$loadsCresearch#$dfsCescalationDchariD:.$df

However, the involvement of nuclear installations in the ndo#Pa& crises of :;2<B2R does not Mualify these events asnuclear crises. Similarly s$eculative re$orts have suggested that a nuclear dimension im%ued the 8rasstac&s and 9ashmir#related :;;@ crisis, %utevidence here is tenuous. However, the ndo#Pa&istani crises that followed their reci$rocal nuclear tests in 3ay :;;2 had a nuclear dimensionT theyinclude the 9argil conflict and the %order confrontation following a Pa&istan#s$onsored terrorist attac& on the ndian Parliament on *ecem%er :, @@:.

'he situation that arose could have eru$ted into a /shooting war.0 'he danger of ndo#Pa&istani crises escalating across thenuclear threshold is a$$arent, %ut a thesis has gained currency in ndia that limited wars can %e fought underthe ru%ric of nuclear deterrence. As stated %y George Fernandes, ndia7s *efence 3inister, /Pa&istan did hold out a nuclearthreat during the 9argil War last year. 8ut it had not a%sor%ed the real meaning of nucleari>ationT that it can deter only the use of nuclear wea$ons, %ut not all and any warZ. SXo the issue was not that war had %een made o%solete %y nuclear wea$ons, and that covert war %y $ro=y was the

only o$tion, %ut that conventional war remained feasi%le though with definite limitations.0 ; ndia and Pa&istan haveconducted $ro=y wars and su% rosa o$erations against each other and fought a limited war under the aegis of nuclear

wea$ons. Hence, there is o$timism that limited conflicts can %e fought and will not escalate to general war and further to anuclear e=change, des$ite the $revailing atmos$here of mistrust and convictions regarding the irrationality ofthe /5ther.0

4mpiricall"% sta"s conventionalior'io et al ( ['ina Sndergjrd 3adsen is a %achelor student at Glo%al Studies and Pu%lic Administration at )os&ilde University-*94 [[3aia

uel Giorgio, [[[3ar& Westh and [[[[a&o% Wiegersma are %achelor students at Glo%al Studies and nternational *evelo$ment Studies at )os&ildeUniversity-*944 /uclear*eterrence inSouthAsia AnAssessmentof*eterrenceand Sta%ilityinthendianBPa&istan !onflict0 Autumn@:@ Glo%al Studies8achelor 3odule B nstitute for Glo%ali>ation and Society # )os&ildeUniversity

When ndia conducted several nuclear tests in :;;2, Pa&istan $rom$tly followed suit and res$onded with nuclear tests of its

own, fuelling fears of a new nuclear arms race. 'he acMuisition of nuclear wea$ons was met with o$en arms in the region as there was a wides$read %elief that these wea$ons and their deterring effect would %e a%le to solve all outstanding issues %etween the two adversaries, including the

issue of 9ashmir -Walt>, @@( :::4. !onsider, for e=am$le, this argument from :;;; $ut forward %y senior Pa&istani di$lomat Shamshad Ahmad( /nSouth Asia nuclear deterrence may, ...X, usher in an era of dura%le $eace %etween Pa&istan and ndia,$roviding the reMuisite incentives for resolving all outstanding issues, es$ecially ammu and 9ashmir0 -Ahmad,

:;;;( :R4. However, it soon %ecame clear that a solution to the 9ashmir dis$ute was a long time coming. With the 9argil crisis in :;;;, where Pa&istani troo$s and militants crossed the +ine of !ontrol and sei>ed ndian $ositions in the 9ashmiri9argil district, the ris& of an all#out war %etween the two nuclear wea$on states seemed imminent. 'he conflictdid, however, not escalate into nuclear war %ut the notion that nuclear wea$ons eMual $eace was called into Muestion. 'wo years later

%oth countries de$loyed hundreds of thousands of soldiers along their collective %order and once again the$ossi%ility of an all#out war seemed to %e in the offing. Again, the international society held its %reath, dreading an escalation into a

nuclear war with unimagina%le conseMuences. However, the standoff never actually came to %loodshed, %ut the sta%ility in the region was seriously rattled.

#ont 'o nuclear – rationalit"Chari 52(7C:: P. ). !hari is a research $rofessor at the nstitute for Peace and !onflict Studies in ew *elhi and a former mem%er of the ndian Administrative Service. How they learned to sto$ worrying and "un& the %om% Pu%lished( 'uesday, 3ar :R, @::, (R? S' 8y P) !hari ^ Place( ew*elhi ^ Agency( *A

A different line of reasoning is reMuired to recognise the essential truth underlying nuclear wea$ons, which is that they areunusa%le for any rational $ur$ose. WhyO !learly any use of Ws %etween nuclear adversaries would result inmutual annihilationT it will also lead to the destruction of the very $o$ulation and territory in dis$ute. !lausewit> had warned that

war without a rational o%"ective is a senseless thing. 'he em$irical evidence shows that, after the !u%an 3issile

!risis in :;, the United States and the Soviet Union had eschewed any direct confrontation. Significantly, theUnited States and Soviet Union were even willing to suffer humiliating defeat in ietnam and Afghanistanrather than contem$late using or threatening the use of nuclear wea$ons due to the $revailing moral ta%ooagainst their use. South Asia% too, witnesse& the ?ar'il conflict in (!!! after In&ia an& <akistan ha&teste& their nuclear weapons/ )either coul& enlar'e the theatre of operations% fearin'escalation of the conflict an& possible nuclear confrontation/

)either si&e will start a war% the" reali$e there is no =winnin'> – mutuall" assure& &estruction A)D international sanctions/Chari an& Ri$vi 8 [P. ). !hari is a research $rofessor at the nstitute for Peace and !onflict Studies in ew *elhi and a former mem%er of

the ndian Administrative Service. [[Hasan As&ari )i>vi is an inde$endent $olitical and defense consultant in Pa&istan and is currently a visiting$rofessor with the South Asia Program of the School of Advanced nternational Studies, ohns Ho$&ins University. /3a&ing 8orders irrelevant in9ashmir0 htt$(CCwww.usi$.orgCfilesCresourcesCsr:@.$df



'he 9ashmir dis$ute has reached an im$asse. Una%le to im$ose their $referred solution, %oth ndia and Pa&istan have %ecome fle=i%leregarding their traditional $ositions on 9ashmir, without officially a%andoning them. Su%tle changes in their $ositions havestimulated creative ideas for managing the conflict. Several develo$ments have contri%uted to this attitudinalshift, among them the end of the !old War, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the current resurgence of)ussia, the rise of !hina and its su$$ort for the $eace $rocess %etween ndia and Pa&istan, the s$read ofglo%ali>ation and its im$lications for international security, internal economic $ressures, the nuclear testsconducted %y ndia and Pa&istan in 3ay :;;2 that consolidated a nuclear deterrent relationshi$, and the U.S. glo%al res$onse tothe attac&s of Se$tem%er ::, @@:. 'he last two of these develo$ments have led In&ia an& <akistan to reali$e thata militar" victor" over the other is not possible. 'he acMuisition of nuclear wea$ons has highlighted the

grave ris&s of trying to alter the status Muo %y military means, as illustrated during the 9argil conflict of :;;;and the @@:B@ %order confrontation. *uring the 9argil conflict neither country could e=tend its theater of o$erations %ecause of fears

that the conflict might %ecome nucleari>ed. For similar reasons, ndia was deterred from attac&ing Pa&istan during the %orderconfrontation in @@:B@. Pa&istan has also reali>ed the dangerous im$lications of su$$orting militancyT it was Pa&istani#%ac&ed militants

who attac&ed the ndian Parliament on *ecem%er :, @@:, triggering the %order confrontation. Pa&istan7s readiness to su$$ort militancyhas also diminished since Pa&istan itself has %ecome the target of slamic "ihadists and has e=$eriencedterrorist attac&s throughout the country. 'he U.S. glo%al war on terrorism has also increased the cost forPa&istan of indulging in $rovocative %ehavior. 'he terrorist attac&s in ew Jor& and Washington, *.!., on Se$tem%er ::, @@:, createda glo%al consensus for controlling transnational terrorism, es$ecially slamic militants and "ihadi grou$s. Pa&istan has since found it difficult to su$$ort

the "ihadi slamic grou$s in Q9. Furthermore, the $assage of a @@? law in the United States has lin&ed American militaryand economic assistance to Pa&istan to its $erformance in sto$$ing cross#%order terrorism. 'he United Stateshas now esta%lished a $hysical $resence in Pa&istan to $ursue its /war on terror0 in Afghanistan, which inhi%its

hostilities %eing initiated %y either ndia or Pa&istan. Any attem$t %y either country to im$rove its groundsituation in 9ashmir would %e frowned u$on %y the international community and might $rom$t economicre$ercussions, as occurred during the @@:B@ %order confrontation crisis when /travel advisories0 were issued %y the United States and several

other develo$ed countries, discouraging their citi>ens from visiting ndia. iven that a ma.or conventional conflict is&an'erous% a nuclear conflict is unthinkable% an& an" forcible alteration of status +uo woul& beunacceptable to the international communit"% both In&ia an& <akistan have reali$e& that the"have no alternative but to enter into a peace process . ndia has discarded its traditional stand that the whole of 9ashmir

%elongs to ndia and has shown signs of de$arting from its stated $olicy of negotiating with Pa&istan only after cross#%order terrorism ceases. Further,ndia7s longstanding $olicy of shunning international mediation and insisting on strict %ilateralism in itsdealings with Pa&istan has %een diluted considera%ly . 5n Pa&istan7s $art, former President Perve> 3usharraf a%andonedhis country7s traditional $osition of insisting on im$lementing the U resolutions on 9ashmir. 'he newgovernment in Pa&istan has declared that it wishes to ta&e the $eace $rocess forward. ndeed, Asif _ardari, cochairman othe Pa&istan Peo$le7s Party, even suggested free>ing the 9ashmir issue, although he later had to %ac&trac& on that $ro$osal. 'his transformation in

ndia#Pa&istan relations can %e traced %ac& to Prime 3inister Atal 8ihari a"$ayee7s statement in the sym%olically significant venue of Srinagar6 thesummer ca$ital of Q96on A$ril :2, @@, e=tending a /hand of friendshi$0 to Pa&istan. : A cease#fire along the +5! was suggested %y Pa&istan7s $rimeminister, _afarullah 9han amali, in ovem%er @@. ndia acce$ted his offer and suggested its e=tension to Siachen, an undemarcated region north of

%ut ad"acent to the +5!. 5n ovem%er , the cease#fire went into effect, greatly im$roving the safety of $eo$le living along the %order. 'heresulting $eace $rocess, though slow, has made steady $rogress, with significant im$rovements occurring incross#%order communications and the movement of $eo$le and goods.

:utual assure& &estruction checks escalationChari 5B P.). !hari is a )esearch Professor. IP!S uclear !risis, Escalation !ontrol, and *eterrence in South Asia0 P.). !hari Wor&ing Pa$er ersion :.@ August @@ htt$(CCwww.stimson.orgCimagesCu$loadsCresearch#$dfsCescalationDchariD:.$df

'he %elief however that low#yield tactical nuclear wea$ons could %e used in the %attlefield during an ndo#Pa&nuclear crisis, 2 or to launch counterforce attac&s on military and economic targets, while e=$ecting that the conflict will

not escalate to general war, is fec&less. 'here are several reasons for this assertion. Firstly, the /fire%rea&0 distinguishing nuclear

and conventional conflict must %e maintained since the entry of nuclear wea$ons into the %attlefield introduces an entirely new,Mualitative dimension. Undou%tedly, some conventional wea$ons can resem%le /mininu&es0 in their destructive ca$a%ilities, %ut the latter are uniMue in

that they can cause instant annihilation and long#term radiation effects on $resent and even un%orn generations. A%ove all, the use of any &ind ofnuclear wea$ons $resages escalation leading on to the use of more $owerful wea$ons that could annihilatecities and ma"or economic targets. Secondly, there is no guarantee that the adversary will not escalate nuclearconflict straightaway %y launching massive counterattac&s on $o$ulation centers. As gra$hically argued in a Pugwash

Sym$osium some twenty#five years ago, / do not %elieve that any scenario e=ists which suggests that nuclear wea$onscould %e used in field warfare %etween two nuclear states without escalation resultingZ 'Xhere is no 3arMuessof Kueens%erry who would %e holding the ring in a nuclear conflictZ Xo one has yet suggested a mutuallyagreed mechanism for controlling escalation on a %attlefield. Until we are assured that there could %e one, wehave to see any degree of nuclear destruction as $art of a continuous s$ectrum of devastation.0 ; 'he $ro%lem thatrules cannot govern the fighting of a war, antici$ated %y !lausewit> two centuries ago, remains unresolved. 3oreover, for a nuclear conflict to $roceed



under esta%lished rules assumes that an understanding on its contours e=ists %etween the adversaries. Should this e=ist, the natural Muestion would arise( why should they enter a conflict at allO 'hirdly, it has %een further urged that, / A war of attrition, even if it were technically feasi%le, cannot %e in the interest of the wea&er side. Against a numerically su$erior o$$onent, the sensi%lestrategy would %e attac&ing cities, $erha$s ]controlling7 the res$onse %y destroying some smaller towns firstZwhatever the significance of the notion ofsu$eriority in a war confined to military targets, there can %e little dou%t that a saturation $oint is soon reached when civilian $o$ulations %ecome the

o%"ective.0 @ 3utual assured destruction ultimately u$holds the edifice of nuclear deterrenceT warfightingscenarios configuring nuclear wea$ons lac& credi%ility in the real world

As"mmetric nuclear threats prevent war – empirics are on our si&e

)aran' ( B i$in arang Ph.*. candidate in the *e$artment of Government at Harvard University and a research fellow at Harvards 8elfer!enter for Science and nternational Affairs. /Posturing for PeaceO Pa&istan7s uclear Postures and South Asian Sta%ility0 Winter @:@, ol. <, o. ,Pages 2#?2 Posted 5nline anuary ?, @:@.

Pa&istan7s asymmetric escalation nuclear $osture has had a distinct deterrent effect on ndian leaders. Unli&e the

catalytic $osture, it directly deterred large scale ndian military action against Pa&istan in the :;;; 9argil War, the @@:B@ 5$eration Para&ram crisis, and the @@2 3um%ai attac&s. Although the United States was still involved in defusing crises, evidencesuggests that Pa&istan7s threat of early nuclear wea$ons use on ndian forces has had a significant inhi%itoryeffect on ndia7s $olitical leadershi$, across %oth 8P and !ongress governments. ndeed, given the more aggressive

$roclivities of the 8P toward Pa&istan, ?; the fact that it was twice deterred from authori>ing ma"or conventionalretaliation following Pa&istani attac&s suggests the $owerful deterrent effect of the asymmetric escalation$osture.

As"mmetric nuclear threats prevent war – 'enerals a&mit% small risk of nuclear war &eters

)aran' ( B i$in arang Ph.*. candidate in the *e$artment of Government at Harvard University and a research fellow at Harvards 8elfer!enter for Science and nternational Affairs. /Posturing for PeaceO Pa&istan7s uclear Postures and South Asian Sta%ility0 Winter @:@, ol. <, o. ,Pages 2#?2 Posted 5nline anuary ?, @:@.

Although several factors may have sto$$ed *elhi from e=ecuting Para&ram, ; Pa&istan7s asymmetric escalation $osture directly and$owerfully sha$ed ndian decisions in one indis$uta%le way( a large#scale assault along lines of the $lannedune offensives, the so#called Sundar"i doctrine, ; nontrivially ris&ed triggering nuclear use and was thus nolonger $ossi%le. +imited war o$erations %efore Pa&istan countermo%ili>ed conventional and nuclear assets were contem$lated, %ut GeneralPadmana%han argued that such stri&es would %e /totally futile0 in achieving any reasona%le o%"ectives, and the only effective

res$onse was to /smash Pa&istanX.0 ;< 8ut as +t. Gen. Sood -ret.4 concedes, if ndia had e=ecuted the une offensives and/severedX Pun"a% and Sindh with its conventional forces . . . Pa&istan would use nuclear wea$ons in thatscenario.0 ;R Hence, once the window for limited retaliatory o$tions $assed, senior ndian officials said that /a"$ayee feared thata fullscale military res$onse . . . could $reci$itate a wider conflagration. Although a"$ayee %elieved that theris& of nuclear war was small, he nonetheless saw no advantage in $reci$itating a crisis of which it might %e an

outcome.0 ; Ganguly and Hagerty conclude that /the fear of Pa&istan7s resort to a $ossi%le nuclear threat was $aramountin the minds of ndian decision#ma&ers, there%y inhi%iting a resort to all#out war.0 ;? Pa&istan7s asymmetric escalation

$osture thus $araly>ed ndia7s leaders( the only availa%le retaliatory o$tion ca$a%le of achieving any $racticalmilitary o%"ectives ris&ed $rovo&ing nuclear escalation and was therefore off the ta%le.

Threats of nukes &eter conventional war from In&ia Ala'appa ! 3uthiah *istinguished Senior Fellow, East#West !enter. Ph*, nternational Affairs, uclear Wea$ons )einforce Security andSta%ility in :st !entury Asia htt$(CCglo%alasia.orgCarticlesCissue;Ciss;D:?.html4

Although they do not affect the regional distri%ution of $ower, nuclear wea$ons strengthen wea&er $owers %y canceling ormitigating the effects of im%alance in conventional and nuclear wea$on ca$a%ility and there%y reducing theirstrategic vulnera%ility . 8y threatening nuclear retaliation and catastro$hic damage in the event of large#scale conventional or nuclear attac&, and

e=$loiting the ris& of escalation to nuclear war, wea&er $owers with nuclear wea$ons constrain the military o$tions of a stronger adversary. 'his is

most evident in the cases of Pa&istan, orth 9orea, and srael. Pa&istan is much wea&er than ndia in several dimensions of national$ower. t suffered defeats in two of the three conventional wars it fought with ndia in the $renuclear era, with the :;?: war resulting in humiliatingdefeat and dismem%erment. n the nuclear era, which dates from the late :;2@s, slama%ad has %een a%le to deter ndia from crossing into Pa&istan

$ro$er and Pa&istan#controlled 9ashmir even in the conte=t of Pa&istani military infiltration into ndian#controlled 9ashmir in :;;;. ndia did notfollow through with the limited#war o$tion in @@:B@ %ecause of the grave ris& it entailed. ndia was alsoforced in $art %y the ris& of nuclear war to engage in a com$rehensive dialogue to e=$lore settlement ofdis$utes %etween the two countries, including the 9ashmir conflict. Pa&istan7s nuclear arsenal has %lunted the$otency of ndia7s large conventional military force. Although it has not canceled out all the conseMuences of the large $owerdifferential %etween the two countries, it has had significant constraining im$act on ndia7s military o$tions and assuaged Pa&istan7s concern a%out thendian threat.

)o war – too worrie& about the econom"



:alik ( Asho& 3ali&, Senior editor, @ years in "ournalism, 'imes of ndia nterviewed %y !harles *avis, a $rofessor at the 3issouri School of

ournalism, G+58A+ 5U)A+S'( !overage of Pa&istan floods lac&s urgency Saturday, August :, @:@ ^ (: $.m. !*' 8J !HA)+ES *AS3ali&( Peo$le do reali>e that this well could have %een a %attle scene. 8ut there are continuing Muestions a%out the ca$acity of Pa&istanis to address

internal challenges. ndia and Pa&istan have had a rough relationshi$, %ut things are much %etter today than had %een historically. For one, there is no real $ros$ect of a war. Pa&istan has numerous challenges far %eyond ndia,and it is not interested in a war, which would mean its economic ruin. 'his is Muite an achievement for twocountries that saw a war a few years ago.

There will be &iplomatic solutions – talks between prime ministers prove

ee )ews 123C:: B award winning ndian news station. War is not the solution to dis$utes( Gilani 3onday, une @, @::htt$(CC>eenews.india.comCnewsCsouth#asiaCwar#is#not#the#solution#to#dis$utes#gilaniD?:;R.html

Pa&istan Prime 3inister Jousuf )a>a Gilani has said that war is not a solution to dis$utes, and all issues can %e only resolved

through dialogue. Addressing a $u%lic meeting at Sha&argarh in Pun"a% $rovince, he said Pa&istan wants to have good relations withits neigh%ours. He said he has met ndian Prime 3inister *r. 3anmohan Singh many times and convinced him that all

%ilateral issues, including 9ashmir, could %e resolved through dialogue and not through war. IPa&istan wants a$ermanent and lasting solution to the 9ashmir issue through dialogue and negotiations,0 the ews Muoted Gilani, as

saying. He said Pa&istan would convince the international community that the 9ashmir issue should %e resolvedaccording to as$irations of 9ashmiris. Gilani e=$ressed the ho$e that the world would hel$ the 9ashmiris get their rights.



)orth ?orea

)orth ?orea wont attack- even if the" &i& it woul&nt escalateSwami (# *i$lomatic editor of telegra$h.co.u& -Praveen, /Why orth 9orean stri&e will not trigger world war three,0::CC:@, htt$(CCwww.telegra$h.co.u&CnewsCworldnewsCasiaCnorth&oreaC2:R<?<CWhy#orth#9oreanstri&e#will#not#trigger#world#war#three.html, !!4

South 9orea is one of the engines of Asian $ros$erity, on which the worlds ho$es of an early economic recovery rest on $eace in the region. 8yattac&ing Jeon$yeong island, a target of no strategic value, orth 9oreas dysfunctional regime is telling the world

how much $ain it could inflict if it isnt %ri%ed to %ehave itself. t ho$es that its sa%re#rattling will force tal&s where the West will

agree to a su%stantial aid $ac&age in return for a guarantee that Pyonyang will not $roduce further nuclear wea$ons. 8oth sides want wealth, not world war three. +i&e other wea& %ut nuclear#armed states, orth 9orea %elieves it can use limitedconventional#wea$ons aggression to secure its o%"ectives, since its wea$ons guarantee it $rotection from large#scale retaliation thatcould threaten its e=istence. 'he first sign of orth 9oreas $ost#nuclear strategy emerged when it san& the South 9orean naval corvette !heonan in

3arch. uclear deterrence guru Glenn Snyder descri%ed the $henomenon, of which there are several e=am$les, as the Ista%ility#insta%ility $arado=I. 8ei"ing military haw&s fought )ussia over the _he%ao island on the Ussuri river in :;; to strengthentheir $olitical $osition without actually ris&ing a large#scale war that would have destroyed them. Pa&istanfought a limited war with ndia over 9ashmir in :;;;, a year after %oth countries tested their nuclear wea$ons.

)o war- an& resource shorta'es mean war woul&nt escalate4&war&s ( B nternational develo$ment s$ecialist and $olicy analyst-3ichael, /Full#scale war on 9orean $eninsula ]unli&ely7,0 ::CRC:@, htt$(CCwww.a%c.net.auCnewsCstoriesC@:@C::C<C@?R??.htm, !!4

I actually thin& that they can a%sor% a lot of $rovocation %ecause the ris& of war,I he said. IGiven that Seoul, which

re$resents roughly 2@ $er cent of their economy, is within stri&ing distance of artillery and roc&ets from orth9orea means that we would have to see a lot more violence at this $oint %efore the South will %e willing toactually conduct military o$erations against the orth.I Professor Hayes does e=$ect orth 9oreas main ally !hina to intervene. Ithin& what is much more li&ely at this $oint is that we will see the great $owers lean very heavily on each otherand $articularly on !hina, which is the main %ac&er at this $oint %oth $olitically and economically of orth 9orea,I he said. It will send amessage to Pyongyang and this will $ro%a%ly %e a military to military message %etween the !hinese P+A andthe orth 9orean Peo$les Army, that they sim$ly cant go a%out %usiness this way. I'hat they will $ull the $lugand %y $ulling the $lug mean turn off the oil, which goes from a $i$eline from !hina to orth 9orea. Without oil, the orth 9oreanmilitary actually cant run for much more than a month %efore they actually run out of fuel.I

China wont escalate war- we woul& en& them;oulkes (#re$orter at 'erre Haute 'ri%une#Star B citing multi$le e=$erts-Arthur, /U.S.# !hina war for 9orea ]unli&ely,7 says SU $rofessor,0 :C:C:@, htt$(CCtri%star.comCnewsC=:2;<<::?CU#S#!hina#war#for#9orea#unli&ely#

says#SU#$rofessor, !!4 War %etween the United States and !hina over orth and South 9orea is /unli&ely,0 said an Asian Pacific e=$ert atndiana State University. +ast wee&, orth 9orea, !hina7s ally, shelled an island off the west coast of the 9orean $eninsula &illing four South 9oreans.

'he incident too& $lace "ust ahead of "oint South 9oreanCU.S. naval e=ercises in the area. /either the U.S. nor !hina would wantwarX,0 said 3i&e !ham%ers, chairman of the $olitical science de$artment at SU and an e=$ert on !hinese foreign relations. 8oth sides /would

wor& very hard to try and $revent it.0 'he United States has a%out 2,@@@ troo$s in South 9orea. f orth9orea launches an all#out attac& on the South, there would %e American casualties, !ham%ers said. American forces

would /go in,0 he said, adding it would li&ely %e the end of the orth 9orean regime.

#ar wont happen or escalate- China woul& pull out an& &estro" )orth ?oreas econom" ;oulkes (#re$orter at 'erre Haute 'ri%une#Star B citing multi$le e=$erts-Arthur, /U.S.# !hina war for 9orea ]unli&ely,7 says SU $rofessor,0 :C:C:@, htt$(CCtri%star.comCnewsC=:2;<<::?CU#S#!hina#war#for#9orea#unli&ely#says#SU#$rofessor, !!4!hina sees orth 9orea as a %uffer %etween its northeastern %order and U.S. forces in South 9orea, said !ham%ers, who is co#editor of the scholarly

"ournal Asian Security. For that and other reasons, !hina, while viewing orth 9orea as an /unruly friend,0 does not want tosee the orth 9orean state disa$$ear, he said. *i$lomatic ca%les lea&ed earlier this wee& %y the we%site Wi&i+ea&s indicatethe !hinese leadershi$ has %ecome frustrated with orth 9orea and would not intervene if the country7sgovernment colla$ses, according to news re$orts. !hina has in the $ast $ressured orth 9orea, es$ecially regarding the hermit#

&ingdom7s nuclear am%itions, !ham%ers noted. 'his $ressure has sometimes included sanctions, /"ust not always as much as we have

wanted.0 orth 9orea7s economy is heavily de$endent on !hina for food and energy, !ham%ers said. f orth 9oreaenters a genuine crisis of survival, 8ei"ing worries that orth 9orean refugees will $our over the %order,desta%ili>ing the !hinese economy in the area, he said. 8y shelling South 9orean $ositions last wee& and ma&ing announcementsregarding its nuclear ca$a%ilities, orth 9orea may %e trying to force the west to resume nuclear tal&s, !ham%ers said. 'he orth 9orean moves may also %e related to the e=$ected transition of $ower from the /*ear +eader,0 9im ong l, to his son, 9im ong Un, he said.

)o war- too hi'h a cost

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8154274/Why-North-Korean-strike-will-not-trigger-world-war-three.html


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/24/3075727.htm

http://tribstar.com/news/x1894461173/U-S-China-war-for-Korea-unlikely-says-ISU-professor






http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/24/3075727.htm







6u'hes (# *efense corres$ondent for the *aily 3irror U9 -!hris, /Sta&es too high for war %etween orth 9orea and South 9orea,0 ::C<C:@, htt$(CCwww.mirror.co.u&CnewsCto$#storiesC@:@C::C<Csta&es#too#high#for#war#%etween#north#&orea#and#south#&orea#::R2?R#?R;<?C, !!4

All#out war is unli&ely as there is nothing to gain for either side. 'he li&ely outcome of war is the reason why itis unli&ely either side will allow it to ha$$en. 'hirty miles from orth 9orea, the South 9orean ca$ital of Seoulis vulnera%le to attac&. A orth 9orean stri&e could &ill a million. 'hen the South would retaliate with air andartillery stri&es, o%literating the orths millionstrong $eo$les arm y. 'he toll on human life would %e trulyhorrific.

)o war- neither countr" willin' to risk annihilationRhee (# !orres$ondent for !S3 and Peter Ford staff writer-issa, /orth 9orea refrains from retaliation after South 9orean artillery drill,0 :C@C:@, htt$(CCwww.csmonitor.comCWorldCAsia#PacificC@:@C:@Corth#9orea#refrains#from#retaliation#after#South#9orea#artillery#drill, !!4

orth 9orean leader 9im ong#il is also loath to ris& any chance of a full#scale war that the orth would undou%tedlylose, destroying his country and his son7s $ros$ects of ta&ing $ower there, argues *avid 9ang, head of the 9orean Studies

nstitute at the University of Southern !alifornia. / We are in a new cold war on the 9orean $eninsula,0 Professor 9ang says. /'here will %e name calling, threats, and $osturing0 on %oth sides, /and even some shooting,0 he $redicts. /8ut would %esur$rised to see a ma"or military mo%ili>ation or the start of a second 9orean War.0 orth 9orea does not recogni>e its

maritime %order with the South, which was drawn %y the United ations at the conclusion of the 9orean War, which ended with an armistice, not aformal $eace treaty. 'he orth claims %oth the island of Jeon$yeong and the waters where the shells landed during Seouls e=ercises. 'here have %een

several naval s&irmishes near the %oundary, &nown as the orthern +imit +ine, in recent years. /'hey have %een shooting at each otherfor @ years,0 9ang $oints out, / %ut that has never led to ma"or mo%ili>ation. 8oth sides &now that if that ha$$ened,

they would %e rolling the dice with their own e=istence. So they are very careful not to challenge thefundamental %alance of $ower on the $eninsula.0

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/11/24/stakes-too-high-for-war-between-north-korea-and-south-korea-115875-22735947/


http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/1220/North-Korea-refrains-from-retaliation-after-South-Korea-artillery-drill








Terrorism

The chance of a successful terrorist attack are ( in 5 billion – too man" obstacles:ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /!alming5ur uclear itters0, ssues in Science and 'echnology, Winter, olume , ssue T $g. R2, $roMuest, A+X

'he most $lausi%le route for terrorists, according to most e=$erts, would %e to manufacture an atomic devicethemselves from $urloined fissile material -$lutonium or, more li&ely, highly enriched uranium4. 'his tas& , however, remains a daunting one, reMuiring that aconsidera%le series of difficult hurdles %e conMuered and in seMuence. 5utright armed theft of fissile material ise=ceedingly unli&ely not only %ecause of the resistance of guards, %ut %ecausechase would %e immediate. A more $romising a$$roach would

%e to corru$t insiders to smuggle out the reMuired su%stances. However, this reMuires the terrorists to $ay off a host of greedy confederates,

including %ro&ers and money# transmitters, any one of whom could turn on them or, either out of guile or incom$etence, furnish them with stuff that is useless. nsiders might also consider the

$ossi%ility that once the heist was accom$lished, the terrorists would, as analyst 8rian en&ins none too delicately $uts it, Ihave every incentive to cover their trail, %eginning with eliminating their confederates.I f terrorists were somehow successful at o%taining a sufficient mass of relevant material, they would then $ro%a%ly have totrans$ort it a long distance over unfamiliar terrain and $ro%a%ly while %eing $ursued %y security forces. !rossing international %orders would %e facilitated %y following esta%lished

smuggling routes, %ut these are not as chaotic as they a$$ear and are often under the watch of sus$icious and careful criminal regulators.f %order $ersonnel %ecame sus$icious of thecommodity %eing smuggled, some of them might find it in their interest to disru$t $assage , $erha$s to collect the

%ounteous reward money that would $ro%a%ly %e offered %y alarmed governments once the uranium theft had %een discovered. 5nce outside the country with their $recious %ooty,

terrorists would need to set u$ a large and well#eMui$$ed machine sho$ to manufacture a %om% and then to

$o$ulate it with a very select team of highly s&illed scientists, technicians, machinists, and administrators. 'hegrou$ would have to %e assem%led and retained for the monumental tas& while no conseMuential sus$icions

were generated among friends, family, and $olice a%out their curious and sudden a%sence from normal$ursuits %ac& home. 3em%ers of the %om%#%uilding team would also have to %e utterly devoted to the cause, of

course, and they would have to %e willing to $ut their lives and certainly their careers at high ris&, %ecause after their %om% was discovered or e=$loded they would $ro%a%ly %ecome the targets of an intense worldwide dragnet o$eration. Someo%servers have insisted that it would %e easy for terrorists to assem%le a crude %om% if they could get enough fissile material. 8ut !hristo$h Wir> and Emmanuel Egger, two senior $hysicists in charge of nuclear issues at Swit>erlands S$ie>

+a%oratory, %luntly conclude that the tas& Icould hardly %e accom$lished %y a su%national grou$.I 'hey $oint out that $recise %lue$rints are reMuired, not "ust s&etches and general ideas, and that even with a good %lue$rint the terroristgrou$ would most certainly %e forced to redesign. 'hey also stress that the wor& is difficult, dangerous, and e=tremelye=acting, and that the technical reMuirements in several fields verge on the unfeasi%le. Ste$hen Jounger, former director of nuclear wea$ons

research at +os Alamos +a%oratories, has made a similar argument, $ointing out that uranium is Ie=ce$tionally difficult to machineI whereas I$lutonium is one of the most com$le= metals ever discovered, a material whose %asic $ro$erties are

sensitive to e=actly how it is $rocessed.I Stressing the Idaunting $ro%lems associated with material $urity, machining, and a host of other issues,I Jounger concludes, Ito thin& that a terrorist grou$, wor&ing in isolation with an unrelia%le su$$ly of electricity and little access to tools and su$$liesI couldfa%ricate a %om% Iis farfetched at %est.I Under the %est circumstances,the $rocess of ma&ing a %om% could ta&e months or evena year or more, which would, of course, have to %e carried out in utter secrecy. n addition, $eo$le in the area, including criminals, may o%serve with

increasing curiosity and $u>>lement the constant coming and going of technicians unli&ely to %e locals. f the effort to %uild a %om% was successful, the finished $roduct, weighing a ton ormore, would then have to %e trans$orted to and smuggled into the relevant target country where it would have to %e received %y

colla%orators who are at once totally dedicated and technically $roficient at handling, maintaining, detonating, and $erha$s assem%ling the wea$on after it arrives. 'he financial costs of this e=tensiveand e=tended o$eration could easily %ecome monumental. 'here would %e e=$ensive eMui$ment to %uy, smuggle, and set u$ and $eo$le to $ay or $ay off. Some o$eratives

might wor& for free out of utter dedication to the cause, %ut the vast cons$iracy also reMuires the su%version of a considera%le array of criminalsand o$$ortunists, each of whom has every incentive to $ush the $rice for coo$eration as high as $ossi%le. Any criminals com$etent and ca$a%le enough to %e effective allies are also li&ely to %e %oth smart enough to see

%oundless o$$ortunities for e=tortion and $sychologically eMui$$ed %y their $rofession to %e willing to e=$loit them. 'hose who warn a%out the li&elihood of a terrorist %om% contend that a terrorist grou$ could, if with great difficulty, overcome each o%stacle and that doing so in each case is Inot im$ossi%le.I 8ut although it may not %e

im$ossi%le to surmount each individual ste$,the li&elihood that a grou$ could surmount a series of them Muic&ly %ecomes vanishin'l"small/ 'a%le : attem$ts to catalogue the %arriers that must %e overcome under the s cenario considered most li&ely to %e successful. n contem$lating the tas& %efore them, would#%e atomic terrorists would effectively %e reMuired to go

though an e=ercise that loo&s much li&e this. f and when they do, they will undou%tedly conclude that their $ros$ects are daunting and accordingly unins$iring or even terminally dis$iriting. t is $ossi%le to calculate

the chances for success. Ado$ting $ro%a%ility estimates that $ur$osely and heavily %ias the case in theterrorists favor# for e=am$le, assuming the terrorists have a R@N chance of overcoming each of the @ o%stacles# the chances that a concerted effort would %e successful comes out to %e less than one in a million. f one assumes

somewhat more realistically, that their chances at each %arrier are one in three, the cumulative odds that they will %e a%le to $ull off the deed dro$ to onein well over three billion/

6i'h-risk2low-probabilit" calculus specificall" in the conteBt of terrorism lea&s to polic"paral"sis an& is a poor wa" to assess outcomes:ueller an& Stewart% 523 B [Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the3ershon !enter for nternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University[[Professor of !ivil Engineering *irector, !entre for nfrastructure Performance and )elia%ility at 'he



University of ewcastle [ohn 3ueller, [[3ar& Stewart, /'error, Security, and 3oney( 8alancing the )is&s,8enefits, and !osts of Homeland Security0, htt$(CC$olisci.osu.eduCfacultyC"muellerC3*::'S3.P*F, A+X

Playing to this demand, government officials are inclined to focus on worst case scenarios, $resuma%ly in the&nowledge, following Sunstein7s insight, that this can emotionally "ustify "ust a%out any e=$enditure no matterhow unli&ely the $ros$ect the dire event will actually ta&e $lace. Accordingly, there is a $reoccu$ation with /low$ro%a%ilityChigh conseMuence0 events such as the detonation of a si>ea%le nuclear device in midtown 3anhattan even though the vast %ul& of homeland security e=$enditures is focused on

com$aratively low conseMuence events li&e e=$losions set off %y individual amateur "ihadists. t is sometimes argued thatconventional ris& analysis %rea&s down under e=treme conditions %ecause the ris& is now a very large num%er

-losses4 multi$lied %y a very small num%er -attac& $ro%a%ility4. However, it is not the ris& analysis methodology that is at fault here, %ut our a%ility to u se the information o%tained from the

analysis for decision#ma&ing. Analyst 8ruce Schneier has written $enetratingly of worst case thin&ing. He $oints out that it involves imagining the worst $ossi%leoutcome and then acting as if it were a certainty. t su%stitutes imagination for thin&ing , s$eculation for ris& analysis, and fear for reason.

t fosters $owerlessness and vulnera%ility and magnifies social $aralysis. And it ma&es us more vulnera%le to the effects of terrorism. tleads to %ad decision ma&ing %ecause its only half of the cost#%enefit eMuation. Every decision has costs and %enefits, ris&s and rewards. 8y

s$eculating a%out what can $ossi%ly go wrong, and then acting as if that is li&ely to ha$$en, worst#case thin&ing focuses only on the e=treme %ut im$ro%a%le ris&s and does a $oor "o% atassessing outcomes. t also assumes /that a $ro$onent of an action must $rove that the nightmare scenario is im$ossi%le,0 and it /can %e used to su$$ort any $osition or its o$$osite. f we %uild anuclear $ower $lant, it could melt down. f we dont %uild it, we will run short of $ower and society will colla$seinto anarchy.0 And worst, it /validates ignorance0 %ecause, /instead of focusing on what we &now, it focuses on

what we dont &now6and what we can imagine.0 n the $rocess /ris& assessment is devalued0 and /$ro%a%ilistic thin&ing is re$udiated infavor of I$ossi%ilistic thin&ing.I:?

#ont cause 'overnmental or economic collapse:ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /uclear


5nly if Americans let it. Although former !A chief George 'enet insists in his memoirs that one Imushroom cloudI wouldIdestroy our economy,I he never %others to e=$lain how the instant and tragic destruction of three sMuare milessomewhere in the United States would lead ine=ora%ly to national economic annihilation. A nuclear e=$losion in, say, ew Jor& !ity # as

5%ama so dar&ly invo&ed # would o%viously %e a tremendous calamity that would roil mar&ets and cause great economic hardshi$, %ut would it e=tinguish the rest of the countryO Would farmers cease $lowingO Would manufacturers close their

assem%ly linesO Would all %usinesses, governmental structures, and community grou$s eva$orateO Americans are highly unli&ely to react to an atomic e=$losion,however disastrous, %y immolating themselves and their economy. n :;<R, a$an weathered not only two nuclear attac&s %ut intense nationwide conventional

%om%ingT the horrific e=$erience did not destroy a$an as a society or even as an economy. or has $ersistent, al%eit nonnuclear, terrorism in srael caused that

state to disa$$ear # or to a%andon democracy. Even the notion that an act of nuclear terrorism would cause the American $eo$le to lose confidence in the government is %elied %y the traumatic e=$erience of Se$t. : :, @@:, when e=$ressed confidence in Americas leaders $arado=ically soared. And it contradicts decades of disaster research that documents how socially res$onsi%le

%ehavior increases under such conditions # seen yet again in the res$onse of those evacuating the World 'rade !enter on ;C::.

)o Al-Jae&a nukes – multiple warrants#research s$ending low #afghanistan disru$ted efforts#no motivation:ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /uclear


IAl Kaeda s Searching for a uclear !a$a%ility.I Prove it. Al Kaeda may have had some interest in atomic wea$ons and other wea$ons of mass destruction -W3*4 %efore the ;C:: attac&s. For instance, a man who defected from al Kaeda after he was caugh

stealing ::@,@@@ from the organi>ation# Ia lova%le rogue,I Ifi=ated on money,I who Ili&es to $lease,I as one F8 de%riefer descri%ed amal al#Fadl # has testified that mem%ers tried to $urchase uranium in the mid#:;;@s, though they were

scammed and $urchased %ogus material. 'here are also re$orts that %in +aden had IacademicI discussions a%out W3* in @@: with Pa&istani nuclear scientists who did not actually &now how to %uild a %om%. 8ut the Afghanistan invasion seems to have cut off any schemes. As analyst Anne Stenersen notes, evidence from an alKaeda com$uter left %ehind in Afghanistan when the grou$ %eat a hasty retreat indicates that only some,@@@ to <,@@@ was earmar&ed for W3* research, and that was mainly for very crude wor& on chemical

wea$ons. For com$arison, she $oints out that the a$anese millennia4 terrorist grou$, Aum Shinri&yo, a$$ears to have invested @ million in its sarin gas manufacturing $rogram. 3ilton +eiten%erg of the !enter for nternational

and Security Studies at the University of 3aryland#!ollege Par& Muotes Ayman al#_awahiri as saying that the $ro"ect was Iwasted time and effort.I Even former nternational Atomic Energy Agencyins$ector *avid Al%right, who is more im$ressed with the evidence found in Afghanistan, concludes that any al Kaeda atomic efforts wereIseriously disru$tedI# indeed, Ini$$ed in the %udI# %y the @@: invasion of Afghanistan and that after theinvasion the Ichance of al Kaeda detonating a nuclear e=$losive a$$ears on reflection to %e low.I

http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/MID11TSM.PDF

http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/MID11TSM.PDF



Its incre&ibl" har& to make the bomb in the first place – ib"a proves:ueller% ( B Professor and Woody Hayes !hair of ational Security Studies at the 3ershon !enter fornternational Security Studies and *e$artment of Political Science at 5hio State University ohn, /uclear


IFa%ricating a 8om% s !hilds Play.I Hardly. An editorialist in ature, the esteemed scientific "ournal, did a$$ly that characteri>ation to the manufacture of uranium %om%s, as o$$osed to

$lutonium %om%s, last anuary, %ut even that seems an a%surd e=aggeration. Jounger, the former +os Alamos research director, has e=$ressed hisama>ement at how Iself#declared nuclear wea$ons e=$erts, many of whom have never seen a real nuclear

wea$on,I continue to Ihold forth on how easy it is to ma&e a functioning nuclear e=$losive.I Uranium isIe=ce$tionally difficult to machine,I he $oints out, and I$lutonium is one of the most com$le= metals everdiscovered, a material whose %asic $ro$erties are sensitive to e=actly how it is $rocessed.I S$ecial technology is reMuired, and even the sim$lest wea$ons reMuire $recisetolerances. nformation on the 'eneral i&ea for buil&in' a bomb is available online% but none of it , Joungersays, is &etaile& enou'h to Iena%le the confident assem%ly of a real nuclear e=$losive.I A failure to a$$reciate the costs and difficulties of anuclear $rogram has led to massive overestimations of the a%ility to fa%ricate nuclear wea$ons. As the @@R Sil%erman#)o%%

commission, set u$ to investigate the intelligence failures that led to the raM war, $ointed out, it is Ia fundamental analytical errorI to eMuate I$rocurement activity with wea$ons system ca$a%ility.I 'hat is, Isim$ly %ecause astate can %uy the $arts does not mean it can $ut them together and ma&e them wor&. I For e=am$le, after three decadesof la%or and well over :@@ million in e=$enditures, +i%ya was una%le to ma&e any $rogress toward an atomic

%om%. ndeed, much of the countrys nuclear material , surrendered after it a%andoned its $rogram, was still in the original %o=es.

Dont believe the h"pe – recent attacks prove that terrorist power is &eclinin' an& the terrorist

threat is fa&in'International 6eral& Tribune% ( B res$ected news$a$er :C:<, Scott Shane, /U.S. clamor over Kaeda mayoverstate its ca$a%ilityT E=aggerated coverage aids "ihadists %y creating an atmos$here of fear0, Gale nfotrac,

A+X

As terrorist $lots against the United States have $iled u$ in recent months, $oliticians and the news media havesounded the alarm with a riveting message for Americans( 8e afraid. Al Kaeda is on the march again , targeting the country

from within and without, and your ha$less government cannot $rotect you. 8ut the $olitically charged clamor has lum$ed together dis$arate cases ando%scured the fact that the "ihadist enemies on American soil in @@;, rather than a single $owerful andso$histicated "uggernaut, were a scattered, uncoordinated grou$ of amateurs who dis$layed more fervor than s&ill. 'heir wea$ons were old#fashioned

guns and e=$losives # in several cases, duds su$$lied %y F8 informants # with no trace of the %iological or radiological $oisons, let alone the nuclear %om%s, that have long %een the ultimate fear. And though @@; %rought more domestic $lots, and more serious $lots, than any recent year, their lethality was relatively

modest. E=actly :< of the a%out :<,@@@ murders in the United States last year resulted from allegedly "ihadist attac&s( : $eo$le shot at Fort Hood in 'e=as in ovem%er and one at a military recruiting station in +ittle )oc&, Ar&ansas, in

une. Such statistics would %e no comfort, of course, if an attac& with mass casualties were to succeed some day. or do they e=cuse the ac&nowledged misste$s at the %ul&ed#u$ American security agencies that $ermitted a igerian student to carry a ma&eshift %om% onto a*etroit#%ound airliner on !hristmas *ay # the attem$ted attac& that set off the flood of news coverage. 8ut even that near miss, said 3ar& 3.+owenthal, assistant director of the !entral ntelligence Agency for analysis from @@ to @@R, may offerindirect evidence of the enemys diminished strength , com$ared with the coordinated attac&s of Se$t. ::, @@:. ISending one guy on one $lane is ahuge ste$ down,I 3r. +owenthal said. I'heyre less ca$a%le, even if theyre still lethal. 'heyre not a%le to carryout the intense $lanning they once did.I

)uclear plants are safe an& alarmism about them is &umb?i&&% ( B *irector of Strategy Q )esearch at the World uclear Association une, /uclear $roliferation ris&B is it vastly overratedO0, uclear Engineering nternational, $.:@, gale infotrac, A+X

First,security considerations have %een addressed %y de$loying additional armed $ersonnel at facilities and %yother measures to $revent incursions, while new nuclear $lants are designed with the $ossi%ility of an aircraftim$act much in mind. Although such events are clearly not im$ossi%le, the entire R@#year history of civil nuclear $ower contains nothingto suggest that the ris&s are other than very remote. +ittle can %e done other than what has %een accom$lishedalready and the ris&s should certainly not %e allowed to dominate the assessment of $otential future actions.ndeed, critics of nuclear $ower are very %ad at &ee$ingthings in $ers$ective and fail to a$$ly similar degrees of scrutiny to other $lans. For e=am$le, should foot%all stadiums not %e licensed for 2@,@@@

fans, sim$ly %ecause a direct aircraft stri&e during a game could conceiva%ly &ill many thousandsO Should the walls of the stadium have to %e several metres thic&O



C"ber-Terror

Al-Jae&a wont pull off a c"ber-terror attack – laun&r" list?nake% ( B fellow at the !ouncil on Foreign )elations C:, )o%ert, /!y%erterrorism Hy$e v. Fact0,htt$(CCwww.cfr.orgCterrorism#and#technologyCcy%erterrorism#hy$e#v#factC$:<<, A+X

*irector of ational ntelligence *ennis 8lair caught the medias attention recently with two ma"or headlines when he $resented this years Annual 'hreat Assessment -P*F4 of the U.S. ntelligence !ommunity. 'he first was his statement thatthe United States is Iseverely threatenedI %y cy%erattac&s of Ie=traordinary so$histication.I 'he second was that al#Kaeda is intent on stri&ing within the United States in the ne=t si= months. 8oth sections of the assessment are chilling, %ut they

are unrelated. 8lair said that the United States faces challenges in cy%ers$ace from nation states, terrorist networ&s,organi>ed criminal grou$s, individuals, and other cy%eractors. He went on to say, I'errorist grou$s and their sym$athi>ers have e=$ressed interest in using cy%ermeans t

target the United States and its citi>ens.I Fortunately, interest does not eMual ca$a%ility. After raising the s$ecter of cy%erterrorism, 8lair never mentioned the cy%erthreat from al#Kaeda anywhere in the five $ages he devoted to their $lans to

stri&e the United States. Heres why. While the United States critical infrastructure, from the electric grid to the financial sector, is vulnera%le to attac& through cy%ers$ace, al#Kaeda lac&s the ca$a%ility and motivation to e=$loit these vulnera%ilities. 'o $enetrate, ma$, and damage the networ&s that control the industrial %ase reMuires a largeteam of e=$erienced hac&ers, a lot of time, and advanced infrastructure. 5nly a handful of grou$s, mostly nation state actors, $ossess this level of ca$a%ility,

and al#Kaeda is not one of them. n the last ten years, according to the ational !ounterterrorism !enters Worldwide ncidents 'rac&ing *ata%ase, there have %een ,:; incidents of terrorism. ot one was an incident of cy%erterrorism. Asrving +achow at *U has $ointed out, the "ihadist community heavily relied on one +ondon#%ased hac&er &nown %y the moni&er rha%i @@?, who at %est had moderate a%ility. Since his arrest in @@R, indications are that al#Kaedas

cy%erca$a%ilities have only eroded. While continuing to rely on $etty crime to fund many $lots, al-Jae&a has been unable tocapitali$e on the eBplosion of c"bercrime, lac&ing the technical ca$a%ility to do so. For al#Kaeda to do any real damage with

cy%erattac&s, it would need to ma&e a multi#year investment in develo$ing offensive cy%erca$a%ilities and would need a secure facility and advance test %ed from which to do it. Understanding the control software for an electric grid is not a

widely availa%le s&ill. t is one thing to find a way to hac& into a networ& and Muite another to &now what to do once youre inside.8eyond the technical hurdles, al#Kaedas $rimarygoal has always %een to generate large num%ers of casualties in addition to inflicting economic damage. 8utcy%erattac&s are largely wea$ons of mass disru$tion, not destruction. !ausing a %lac&out or destroying airlinereservations systems wont &ill many $eo$le, if any at all. 'he worst#case scenario is that a cy%erattac& could override

controls at a chemical or nuclear $lant and cause a chemical release or nuclear meltdown. Such an incident could &ill thousands if not millions. 'han&fully, the controlsystems for $lants that could cause that &ind of harm are still Iair ga$$ed,I disconnected from networ&s thatconnect to the nternet. n attem$ting to attac& the homeland, the organi>ation has relied on decidedly low#tech means. 5f the twenty#two $lots disru$ted since ;C::, all involved the use of im$rovised e=$losives or

small arms, and all were aimed at &illing large num%ers of $eo$le. n its twenty#year e=istence, al#Kaeda has never carried out a $lot intended to do economic harm without also causing large num%ers of casualties. !oncernsa%out cy%erterrorism arise from the fact that al#Kaeda has e=$ressed interest in devastating the U.S. economyand that 8in +aden has s$o&en of I%leeding America to the $oint of %an&ru$tcy.I 8ut the conte=t for theseMuotes is im$ortant, and has nothing to do with cy%erterror as$irations. 8in +aden has articulated a goal of forcing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the

3uslim world %y raising the costs of these de$loyments %oth $olitically and economically to the $oint that they are no longer sustaina%le. 'o do this, 8in +aden is %orrowing a $lay from the mu"ahedeen, who $inned down the Soviets in Afghanistan for over a decade %efore forcing their withdrawal and, ultimately, the colla$se of the Soviet Union. For less than R@@,@@@ and using %o= cutters as the $rimary wea$on, al#Kaeda was a%le to create a military res$onse that to date has

cost %etween : trillion to .R trillion. What &ind of results could al#Kaeda get from hac&ingO f al#Kaeda were a%le to cause a $ower %lac&out %y hac&ing S!A*A systems, they couldnt do much %etter than the tree lim%s that caused the @@ortheast 8lac&out. 'hat event $ut R@ million $eo$le in the United States and !anada in the dar& for u$ to fourdays. Economists $lace the cost of that event %etween <.R and :@ %illion, a %li$ in the :<. trillion economy.5ne thing the United States has learned a%out the cost of disru$tion to the economy is that disru$tion causes $ain that is short lived and minimal. A two#day snow storm doesnt eliminate two days of economic activity, it only delays it. 'he same

holds true for $ort closures and other disru$tive activities. For now, the United States has little to fear from al#Kaeda on the cy%erfront. 5nly a handful of so$histicated nation states currently have the a%ility to carry out a devastating cy%erstri&e.n his assessment of the Peo$les +i%eration Army 3oderni>ation $rogram, 8lair %riefly noted that I!hinas aggressive cy%eractivitiesI $ose challenges, and its true that !hina, )ussia, and other countries ca$a%ilities do $ose a real threat.+uc&ily, these countries also have vulnera%le systems, as well as a lot to lose, in any conflict, cy%er or otherwise. 'he United States reliance on the nternet and de$endence on automated systems connected to it re$resent a massive vulnera%ility

to the United States, %ut it is not one that terrorist organi>ations are li&ely to %e a%le to e=$loit anytime soon. As with any develo$ing technology

the cost and other %arriers to develo$ing an advanced cy%eroffensive are declining each year.

)o IT knowle&'e – less than 3W of violent 0iha&is can pull it off Conwa"% (( B +ecturer in nternational Security in the School of +aw and Government at *u%lin !ityUniversity Fe%ruary, 3aura, /Against !y%erterrorism( Why cy%er#%ased terrorist attac&s are unli&ely tooccur0, !ommunications of the A!3, olume R<, um%er , $. #2, A+X

iolent "ihadis7 ' &nowledge is not su$erior. For e=am$le, in research carried out in @@?, it was found that ofa random sam$ling of <@< mem%ers of violent slamist grou$s, :; -<2.RN4 had a higher education, with information a%out su%"ect areas availa%le for :?2 individuals. 5f

these :?2, some 2 -<.RN4 had trained in com$uting, which means that out of the entire sam$le, less than N of the "ihadis came from a com$uting %ac&ground.-4

And not even these few could %e assumed to have mastery of the com$le= systems necessary to carry out asuccessful cy%erterrorist attac&. )eal#world attac&s are difficult enough. What are often viewed as relatively unso$histicated real# world attac&s underta&en %y highly educated individuals are routinely unsuccessful. 5ne only has to consider the failed car %om% attac&s

$lanned and carried out %y medical doctors in central +ondon and at Glasgow air$ort in une @@?.

The" woul&nt hire hackers eitherConwa"% (( B +ecturer in nternational Security in the School of +aw and Government at *u%lin !ityUniversity Fe%ruary, 3aura, /Against !y%erterrorism( Why cy%er#%ased terrorist attac&s are unli&ely tooccur0, !ommunications of the A!3, olume R<, um%er , $. #2, A+X

Hiring hac&ers would com$romise o$erational security. 'he only remaining o$tion is to retain /outsiders0 tounderta&e such an attac&. 'his is very o$erationally ris&y. t would force the terrorists to o$erate outside their

http://www.cfr.org/terrorism-and-technology/cyberterrorism-hype-v-fact/p21434

http://www.cfr.org/terrorism-and-technology/cyberterrorism-hype-v-fact/p21434



own circles and thus leave them ri$e for infiltration. Even if they successfully got in contact with /real0 hac&ers, they would %e in no$osition to gauge their com$etency accuratelyT they would sim$ly have to trust in same. 'his would %e veryris&y.

Attacks arent perceive& – means no terrorist motiveConwa"% (( B +ecturer in nternational Security in the School of +aw and Government at *u%lin !ityUniversity Fe%ruary, 3aura, /Against !y%erterrorism( Why cy%er#%ased terrorist attac&s are unli&ely tooccur0, !ommunications of the A!3, olume R<, um%er , $. #2, A+X

n @@<, Howard Schmidt, former White House !y%ersecurity !oordinator, remar&ed to the U.S. Senate !ommittee on the udiciary regarding imda and !ode )ed that /we to this day don7t &now thesource of that. t could have very easily %een a terrorist.0-<4 'his o%servation %etrays a fundamentalmisunderstanding of the nature and $ur$oses of terrorism, $articularly its attention#getting andcommunicative functions. A terrorist attack with the potential to be hi&&en, $ortrayed as an accident,or otherwise remain un&nown is unlikel" to be viewe& positivel" %y any terrorist grou$. n fact, one of themost im$ortant as$ects of the ;C:: attac&s in ew Jor& from the $er$etrators view$oint was surely the fact that

while the first $lane to crash into the World 'rade !enter could have %een accidental, the a$$earance of thesecond $lane confirmed the incident as a terrorist attac& in real time. 3oreover, the crash of the first $lane ensured a large audience for the second $lane as it hit the second

tower.

Its me&ia h"peConwa"% (( B +ecturer in nternational Security in the School of +aw and Government at *u%lin !ityUniversity Fe%ruary, 3aura, /Against !y%erterrorism( Why cy%er#%ased terrorist attac&s are unli&ely tooccur0, !ommunications of the A!3, olume R<, um%er , $. #2, A+X

Given the high cost6not "ust in terms of money, %ut also time, commitment, and effort6and the high$ossi%ility of failure on the %asis of man$ower issues, timing, and com$le=ityof a $otential cy%erterrorist attac&, the costs a$$ear to me to still

very largely outweigh the $otential $u%licity %enefits. 'he $u%licity as$ect is crucial for $otential $er$etrators of terrorism and so the $ossi%ility that an attac& may %e a$$rehended

or $ortrayed as an accident, which would %e highly li&ely with regard to cy%erterrorism, is detrimental. Add the lac& of s$ectacular moving images and it is my %elief that cy%erterrorism, regardless of what youmay read in news$a$ers, see on television, or o%tain via other media sources, is not in our near future. So why then the

$ersistent treatment of cy%erterrorism on the $art of "ournalistsO Well, in this instance, science fiction-t"pe fears appear to trump rationalcalculation almost every time. And haven7t even %egun to discuss how the media discourse has clearlyinfluenced the $ronouncements of $olicyma&ers.

Its empiricall" &enie& – US infrastructure is sub.ect to constant c"ber-attacks

C))% ( B res$ected news source C:, /Fact !hec&( !y%erattac& threat0, ! ews,htt$(CCarticles.cnn.comC@:@#@#:CtechCfact.chec&.cy%er.threatD:Dcy%erattac&#infrastructure#threatO

DsP3('E!H, A+X

Fact !hec&( s there consensus on the li&elihood of a cy%erattac& against the United StatesO ## According to the !enter for Strategic and nternational Studies-!SS4, I!ritical infrastructure owners and o$erators re$ort that their networ&s and control systems are underre$eated cy%erattac&, often from high#level adversaries li&e foreign nation#states.I Si=ty $ercent of U.S. nternet technology and infrastructure

e=ecutives Muestioned in a recent !SS survey e=$ect to see a Ima"or cy%erincidentI -an outage of at least < hours, a loss of life or a failure of a com$any4 within two

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-02-16/tech/fact.check.cyber.threat_1_cyberattack-infrastructure-threat?_s=PM:TECH






***Resource s ***



* ene ric

4mpirics an& stu&ies are conclusive – resource wars &ont happenSaleh"an 9 B dean Salehyan Professor of Political Science at the University of orth 'e=as. /'he ew 3yth A%out !limate !hange !orru$t,tyrannical governments6not changes in the Earth7s climate6will %e to %lame for the coming resource wars.0 8y dean Salehyan ^ August :<, @@?htt$(CCwww.foreign$olicy.comCarticlesC@@?C@2C:CtheDnewDmythDa%outDclimateDchange

First, aside from a few anecdotes, there is little systematic em$irical evidence that resource scarcity and changingenvironmental conditions lead to conflict. n fact, several studies have shown that an a%undance of naturalresources is more li&ely to contri%ute to conflict. 3oreover, even as the $lanet has warmed, the num%er of civil wars and insurgencies

has decreased dramatically. *ata collected %y researchers at U$$sala University and the nternational Peace )esearch nstitute, 5slo shows a stee$decline in the num%er of armed conflicts around the world. 8etween :;2; and @@, some :@@ armed conflicts came to an end, including the wars in

3o>am%iMue, icaragua, and !am%odia. f glo%al warming causes conflict, we should not %e witnessing this downward trend. Furthermore, if famineand drought led to the crisis in *arfur, why have scores of environmental catastro$hes failed to set off armedconflict elsewhereO For instance, the U.. World Food Programme warns that R million $eo$le in 3alawi have

%een e=$eriencing chronic food shortages for several years. 8ut famine#wrac&ed 3alawi has yet to e=$erience ama"or civil war. Similarly, the Asian tsunami in @@< &illed hundreds of thousands of $eo$le, generatedmillions of environmental refugees, and led to severe shortages of shelter, food, clean water, and electricity. Jetthe tsunami, one of the most e=treme catastro$hes in recent history, did not lead to an out%rea& of resource

wars. !learly then, there is much more to armed conflict than resource scarcity and natural disasters.

Resource wars arent real – the" are .ust other un&erl"in' political conflicts

Hictor 9 *avid G. ictor, Ph.*., 3assachusetts nstitute of 'echnology, :;;? -$olitical science4 A.8., Harvard University, :;2? -history andscience, cum laude4 /What )esource WarsO0 htt$(CCnationalinterest.orgCarticleCwhat#resource#wars#:2R:

3ost of this is %un& , and nearly all of it has focused on the wrong lessons for $olicy. !lassic resource wars are good material for Hollywood

screenwriters. 'hey rarely occur in the real world. 'o %e sure, resource money can magnify and $rolong some conflicts, %ut the root causes of those hostilities usually lie elsewhere. Fi=ing them reMuires focusing on the underlyinginstitutions that govern how resources are used and largely determine whether stress e=$lodes into violence. When conflicts doarise, the wea& lin& isnt a dearth in resources %ut a dearth in governance.

Tra&in' 'oo&s solves Allouche ( eremy Allouche )esearch Fellow in water su$$ly and sanitation. nstitute of *evelo$ment Studies, 8righton, U 'he sustaina%ilityand resilience of glo%al water and food systems( Political analysis of the inter$lay %etween security, resource scarcity, $olitical systems and glo%al trade.Food Policy -@:@4, doi(:@.:@:C".food$ol.@:@.::.@:

*e%ates on resource scarcity and conkict have ignored the role of trade in %oth causing and addressing local and regional shortages.

n the case of food and water, this has led to conclusions that are highly Muestiona%le. ndeed, food security hasessentially %een addressed through national water availa%ility and ignores the s$ectacularly successful %enetsof international trade, in this $articular case food im$orts -Allan, @@:4. Water availa%ility is often hidden in international trade.

!ountries with more water are a%le to trade water#intensive goods for e=$ort. Water em%edded in traded cro$shas %een termed ]virtual water7 and trade in virtual water has %een suggested as a way to alleviate watershortages. However, the limit of this logic should %e recogni>ed in that glo%al trade is %ased on %roader $olitical and economic factors rather than on

water. 'hrough glo%al trade, one can o%serve an overall increase in terms of food security %etween :;?@ and:;;@. 'he greatest im$rovements were in orth Africa and the 3iddle East, moderate change in Asia and 5ceania and +atin America, and a decline inSu%#Saharan Africa. A num%er of s$ecialists em$hasi>e the need for free international trade in order to assure glo%al food security, as it ena%les su$$ly

and demand to %e %alanced across regions -Godfray et al., @:@4. Glo%al trade therefore is seen as a solution to the ]eMuality7$ro%lem as it ena%les food security as dened %y the FA5 -namely when ]]all $eo$le, at all times, have $hysical and economic accessto sufcient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food $references for an active and healthy life77 B as dened at the :;; World FoodSummit, FA5, :;;4. Although it has %een ac&nowledged that free mar&ets usually $enali>e the $oorest who have the least inkuence on how glo%almar&ets are structured and regulated -see Anderson, @@; and A&soy and 8eghin, @@R4, alternatives have usually %een dismissed.



*<eak il

#ont hit peak oil for 5 "ears an& then we have oil for another 3-5 "ears/ <lus% tech willlea& to more time

HA )ews 8 *r. 3ichael . Economides Professor of !hemical and 8iomolecular Engineering /s the world running out of oilO0htt$(CCwww.voanews.comCenglishCnewsCa#:#@@2#@#@R#voa?#2:@:?.htmlSome analysts maintain that after large oil fields are e=$lored, it %ecomes harder and more e=$ensive to drill dee$er for increasingly smaller amounts of

oil. 8ut chemical and %io#molecular engineer 3ichael Economides of the University of Houston says oil will not run outanytime soon. I'he first time that $eo$le said we were running out of oil was in :2, four years after the first $ur$oseful well was drilled in

Pennsylvania. 'he whole conce$t that we are running out of oil has %een re$eated on at least si= ma"or occasions in the last :R@#some years. Pea& willha$$en,I says Economides. I8ut m" calculations su''est that peak oil ma" happen aroun& 3@% perhaps37/ An& then after that% it will lin'er on for &eca&es -- perhaps two% three centuries . We are still

going to %e $roducing commercial Muantities of oil.I 'echnology to the )escueO Economides says technology and new drillingtechniMues have e=tended the worlds &nown oil reserves. As a result, many e=$erts say estimates for oilreserves have %een rising, with this years glo%al reserves estimated at one#and#a#third trillion %arrels. IThe intro&uction ofmo&ern 'eo-sciences has probabl" a&&e& 3 percent Lmore oilM to the Unite& States reserves .Fifteen years ago, it was a good stri&e if we drilled ten wells and one well was good. 'oday, seven out of ten drilled wells are commercial successes. All ofthat is %ecause of technology,I says Economides. IWe have gone %elow :@#thousand feet of water, which would have %een unthin&a%le :R years ago. So alof these things e=tend reserves and world $roduction ca$acity.I

Tons of untappe& sources leftears" 1 )aymond . +earsy, graduate of the Wharton School, author on oil, /5il is ot Scarce ## 'he 5il ndustry !ontinues to Play Us For Fools0htt$(CCwww.huffington$ost.comCraymond#"#learsyCoil#is#not#scarce#the#oilD%D:[email protected]

And there are other sources that must %e counted( !anadas tar sands are immense. 'he conservative estimate of oil saturating the $rovince of Al%erta is :?R %illion %arrels. Producers have %een wor&ing for years to lower the cost of stri$#mining the de$osits,grinding it u$, se$arating the tar#li&e %itumen from the sand, and refining it into synthetic crude oil. 'hese days, all that can %e done for a%out @ a %arrel ## $roviding nifty $rofits at todays mar&et $rice, which hovers around ?@C%%l. And sure enough, !hevron !or$oration has "ust announced it will

s$end well over : %illion for a vast new $ro"ect to $roduce more than :@@,@@@ %arrels a day from the oil sands. 5ffshore drilling can now %edone in waters as dee$ as two miles, with the oil de$osits five to si= miles %elow the ocean floor. 'han&s to innovative

drills, new information technology, and so$histicated undersea ro%ots, oilmen now have access to an estimated @@ %illion %arrelsof $reviously unta$$a%le oil. Sensor technology, seismic surveying and s$eciali>ed software $romise to o$enu$ another :R@ %illion %arrels of reserves. 'he Pod, a su$ercom$uter#$owered e=$loration system designed %y a software su%sidiary of

Halli%urton !or$oration, creates astonishingly detailed #* seismic models that are viewed on an 3A!#style <R#foot screen and ta&e most of the

guesswor& out of drilling for oil. 5ld oilfields still hold hundreds of %illions of %arrels that were thought to %eunrecovera%le in the early days. Wells that have %een a%andoned as de$leted may contain as much as ?@ $ercent of the oil originally there. Advanced recovery techniMues range from the o%vious ## $um$ing in water or car%on dio=ide to increase $ressure in the well ## to the e=otic( 'hese days,

wells can %e filled with %ioengineered micro%es that release oil stuc& in microsco$ic cavities. 8ut the %ig new source will %e oil shale, vastMuantities of sedimentary roc& in the western United States that contain an awesome . trillion %arrels of oil.

n the $ast, efforts to get it out have foundered on technological $ro%lems. ow, new methods are %eing develo$ed( *rilling holes into theshale, heating the roc& to ?@@ degrees to coo& out the oil, and $um$ing it to the surface. n reasona%ly shortorder it can %e e=$ected that high#Muality crude can %e e=tracted from shale for circa @ a %arrel.

Eour authors arent base& on evi&ence of the oil in&ustr" an& "our impacts are empiricall"&enie&"nch ! 3ichael +ynch, the former director for Asian energy and security at the !enter for nternational Studies at the 3assachusetts nstitute of'echnology, is an energy consultant. / ]Pea& 5il7 s a Waste of Energy0 htt$(CCwww.nytimes.comC@@;C@2CRCo$inionCRlynch.htmlO Dr:Qrefo$inionQ$agewantedall

A careful e=amination of the facts shows that most arguments a%out $ea& oil are %ased on anecdotal

information, vague references and ignorance of how the oil industry goes a%out finding fields and e=tracting$etroleum. And this has %een demonstrated over and over again( the founder of the Association for the Study of Pea&5il first claimed in :;2; that the $ea& had already %een reached, and 3r. Schlesinger argued a decade earlier that$roduction was unli&ely to ever go much higher. 3r. 8irol isn7t the only one still worrying. 5ne leading $ro$onent of $ea& oil, the writer Paul )o%erts, recently e=$ressed shoc& to discover that the liMuid coming out of the Ghawar Field in Saudi Ara%ia, the world7s largest &nownde$osit, is around R $ercent water and rising. 8ut this is hardly a concern 6 the %uildu$ is caused %y the Saudis $um$ing seawater into the field to &ee$$ressure u$ and ma&e e=traction easier. 'he glo%al average for water in oil field yields is estimated to %e as high as ?R $ercent. Another critic, a

$rominent consultant and investor named 3atthew Simmons, has raised concerns over oil engineers using /fu>>y logic0 toestimate reservoir holdings. 8ut fu>>y logic is a $rogramming method that has %een used since was in graduate school in situations where the

factors are ha>y and varia%le 6 everything from $hysical science to international relations 6 and its trac& record in oil geology has %eenMuite good. 8ut those are "ust the latest arguments 6 for the most $art the $ea&#oil crowd rests its case on three ma"or claims( that the world is

discovering only one %arrel for every three or four $roducedT that $olitical insta%ility in oil#$roducing countries $uts us at an un$recedented ris& ofhaving the s$igots turned offT and that we have already used half of the two trillion %arrels of oil that the earth contained.



Eour car&s &ont assume when new oil is foun& in ol& fiel&s – alwa"s happens"nch ! 3ichael +ynch, the former director for Asian energy and security at the !enter for nternational Studies at the 3assachusetts nstitute of'echnology, is an energy consultant. / ]Pea& 5il7 s a Waste of Energy0 htt$(CCwww.nytimes.comC@@;C@2CRCo$inionCRlynch.htmlO Dr:Qrefo$inionQ$agewantedall

+et7s ta&e the rate#of#discovery argument first( it is a statement that reflects ignorance of industry terminology. When a new fieldis found, it is given a si>e estimate that indicates how much is thought to %e recovera%le at that $oint in time.

8ut as years $ass, the estimate is almost always revised u$ward, either %ecause more $oc&ets of oil are found in the field or %ecause new technology ma&es it $ossi%le to e=tract oil that was $reviously unreacha%le. Jet %ecause $etroleumgeologists don7t re$ort that additional recovera%le oil as /newly discovered,0 the $ea& oil advocates tend toignore it. n truth, the com%ination of new discoveries and revisions to si>e estimates of older fields has %een &ee$ing $ace with $roduction for many

years.

.ust because oil is har&er to 'et &oesnt mean we wont 'et it"nch ! 3ichael +ynch, the former director for Asian energy and security at the !enter for nternational Studies at the 3assachusetts nstitute of'echnology, is an energy consultant. / ]Pea& 5il7 s a Waste of Energy0 htt$(CCwww.nytimes.comC@@;C@2CRCo$inionCRlynch.htmlO Dr:Qrefo$inionQ$agewantedall

A related argument 6 that the /easy oil0 is gone and that e=traction can only %ecome more difficult and cost#ineffective6 should %e recogni>ed as vague and irrelevant . *rillers in Persia a century ago certainly didn7t consider their

wor& easy, and the mechani>ed, com$uteri>ed industry of today is a far sight from :;th#century mule#drawnrigs. Hundreds of fields that $roduce /easy oil0 today were once thought technologically unreacha%le. 'he latestacorn in the discovery de%ate is a recent increase in the overall estimated rate at which $roduction is declining in large oil fields. 'his is assumed to %ethe result of the /su$erstraw0 technologies that have %ecome dominant over the $ast decade, which can drain fields faster than ever. 'rue, %ecause

Muic&er e=traction causes the fluid $ressure in the field to dro$ ra$idly, the wells %ecome less and less $roductive over time. 8ut this decliningreturn on individual wells doesn7t necessarily mean that whole fields are %eing cleaned out. As the Saudis have$roved in recent years at Ghawar, additional investment 6 to find new de$osits and drill new wells 6 can &ee$ a field7soverall $roduction from falling.



*;oo& #ont 'o to war over foo&Chan' 323(C:: Gordon G !hang, Graduated !ornell +aw School /Glo%al Food Wars0 htt$(CC%logs.for%es.comCgordonchangC@::C@C:Cglo%al#food#warsCn any event, food#$rice increases have a$$arently %een factors in the unrest now swee$ing orth Africa and the 3iddle East. 'he $oor s$end u$ to halftheir dis$osa%le income on edi%les, ma&ing ra$id food inflation a cause of concern for dictators, strongmen, and assorted autocrats everywhere. So even

if human&ind does not go to war over %ad harvests, Pas&al may %e right when she contends that climate change may end u$ altering

the glo%al ma$. 'his is not the first time in human history that food shortages loo&ed li&e they would %e the motorof violent geo$olitical change. Jet ama>ing agronomic advances, es$ecially orman 8orlaug7s Green

)evolution in the middle of the @th century, have consistently $roved the $essimists wrong. n these days when ca$italism is %eing %lamed for most everything, it7s im$ortant to remem%er the $ower of humaninnovation in free societies6and the efficiency of free mar&ets.

Suppl" an& &eman& means farmers will make more foo& – empiricall" trueubrin 72(5C:: 6 *r. )o%ert _u%rin Fellow with the !enter for Security Policy 8.A. in 3athematics from the University of )ochester -:;?<4,and a masters degree in Aeronautics and Astronautics, a masters degree in uclear Engineering, and a Ph.*. in uclear Engineering /WHJ '7S W)5G '5 AG)EE W'H 'HE 3A+'HUSAS A85U' E'HA5+0 htt$(CCwww.ilcorn.orgCdaily#u$dateC:2#why#it#rsMuo#s#wrong#to#agree#with#the#malthusians#a%out#ethanolC

n fact, +ester 8rown is wrong a%out the alleged famine#inducing $otential of the ethanol $rogram for e=actly the same reason

he has %een re$eatedly wrong a%out the alleged famine#inducing $otential of $o$ulation growth. 'here is not afi=ed amount of grain in the world. Farmers $roduce in res$onse to demand. 'he more customers, the moregrain. ot only that, %ut the larger the $otential mar&et, the greater the motivation for investment in im$roved techniMues. 'his is why, des$ite the

fact that the world $o$ulation has indeed dou%led since +ester 8rown, Paul Ehrlich, and the other $o$ulationcontrol >ealots first $u%lished their manifestos during the :;@s, $eo$le worldwide are eating much %ettertoday than they were then. n the case of America7s corn growing industry, the %eneficial effect of a growing mar&et has %een es$ecially$ronounced, with corn yields $er acre in @:@ -:R %ushels $er acre4 %eing ? $ercent higher than they were in @@ -:@ %ushels $er acres4 and morethan four times as great as they were in :;@ -<@ %ushels $er acre.4

Tech &evelopment solvesThompson 72(52(( – *r. )o%ert +. 'hom$son is a senior fellow for 'he !hicago !ouncil on Glo%al Affairs and $rofessor emeritus at theUniversity of llinois at Ur%ana#!ham$aign. /Proving 3althus Wrong, Sustaina%le agriculture in @R@0htt$(CCscience%logs.comCtomorrowsta%leC@::C@RC$rovingDmalthusDwrongDsustaina.$h$

'ools availa%le today , including $lant %reeding and %iotechnology, can ma&e $resently unusa%le soils $roductive andincrease the genetic $otential of individual cro$s # enhancing drought and stress tolerance, for e=am$le # while also

$roducing gains in yields. E=isting tools can also internali>e $lants resistance to disease, and even im$rove a $lantsnutritional content # meaning consumers can get more nutritional value without increasing their consum$tion. Furthermore, modern high#

$roductivity agriculture minimi>es farmers im$act on the environment. Failure to em%race these technologies will result in

further destruction of remaining forests. Ado$tion of technologies that $roduce more out$ut from fewer resources has %een hugely successful from an economic stand$oint( $rior to the $rice s$i&e in @@2, there was a :R@#year downward trend in thereal $rice of food. 'he "ury is still out on whether the long#term downward trend will resume, $rices will flatten out on a new higher $lateau, or they willtrend u$ward in the future. 'he &ey is investing in research in the $u%lic and $rivate sectors to increase agricultural $roductivity faster than glo%al

demand grows. +ong ago, 8ritish scholar 'homas 3althus $redicted that the human $o$ulation would eventually outgrowits a%ility to feed itself . However, 3althus has %een $roven wrong for more than two centuries $recisely %ecausehe underestimated the $ower of agricultural research and technology to increase $roductivity faster thandemand. 'here is no more reason for 3althus to %e right in the :st century than he was in the :;th or @th #

%ut only if we wor& to su$$ort, not im$ede, continued agricultural research and ado$tion of new technologiesaround the world.

4mpiricall" &enie& – human &evelopment solves

#ish ( ladish Wish, writer for Allian> -study of demogra$hics4 /Who7s Afraid of 'homas 3althusO0 Glo%al ^@: 5cto%er @:@%y aldis Wishhtt$(CC&nowledge.allian>.comCO<

one of the trou%ling $redictions a%out over$o$ulation and glo%al starvation have come to $ass. So should we still %e worried

a%out too many $eo$le on EarthO 'he s$ecter of too many $eo$le and not enough food has haunted scientists and$hiloso$hers since at least the time of Aristotle. 'he most famous is 'homas 3althus, who in :?;2 grimly $redicted that $o$ulation

growth would out$ace food $roduction, resulting in human death and misery. 'he ndustrial )evolution and new agriculturaltechniMues during the :;th century, however, hel$ed $revent a ma"or glo%al starvation. 5ver :R@ years later, Paul ). Ehrlich

$u%lished a %estselling %oo& called I'he Po$ulation 8om%,I in which he $ro"ected the starvation of hundreds of millions during the :;?@s#2@s. Whilethe world saw some devastating famines during those decades6in 8angladesh and Ethio$ia, for e=am$le6they were noton the glo%al scale that Ehrlich had $redicted. 8ut even after histor" prove& :althus an& 4hrlich wron' ,

theories a%out the dangers of over$o$ulation still ca$ture the $u%lic interest. ared *iamond, author of the %estseller I!olla$seI, says humanity stillfaces a $erilous I$o$ulation e=$losionI in the coming decades. His %oo& descri%es the %loody events in )wanda, one of the worlds most densely$o$ulated countries, during the :;;@s to illustrate what can ha$$en when $o$ulation growth converges with $ro%lems li&e environmental degradation



and food shortages. *iffusing the $o$ulation %om% 3althus, Ehrlich, and *iamond all have their critics, mainly economists and theorists who deny that

$o$ulation growth negatively affects Muality of life. 5ne of them is U.S. $olitical economist icholas E%erstadt, who argues that over$o$ulationalone is not to %lame for $oor living conditions. Glo%al living standards, he notes, have im$roved dramaticallyduring the @th century des$ite a near#Muadru$ling of the human $o$ulation. In most $eo$les minds, the notions ofover$o$ulation, overcrowding, or too many $eo$le are associated with images of hungry children, unchec&ed disease, sMualid living conditions, and

awful slums,I writes E%erstadt. I8ut the $ro$er name for those conditions is human $overty.I !ountries li&e 'aiwan, South 9orea, or theetherlands show that densely $o$ulated countries can $ros$er as well . onetheless, concerns that $o$ulation growtho%structs develo$ment have ins$ired large#scale family $lanning measures since the :;R@s. n :;;, the U created the U Fund for Po$ulation Activities -UFPA4, which su$$orts family $lanning initiatives worldwide. n the late :;?@s, the !hinese government introduced its famous one#child#$er#family $olicy. While many Muestion whether such schemes are humane, the $olicy clearly slowed down !hinese $o$ulation growth to the e=tent that

ndia will soon %e the worlds most $o$ulous country.

Countries will cooperate over foo&,ur'er et al/ ( [9ees 8urger *evelo$ment Economics, !orres$onding author, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg [[eroen Warner A*

Eef"e *eri= *isaster Studies, Wageningen Universit /Governance of the world food system and crisis $revention0htt$(CCwww.stuurgroe$ta.nlCra$$ortenCFoodshoc&#we%.$df8oth Euro$ean water and agricultural $olicies are %ased on the %elief that there will always %e chea$ food a$lenty on the world mar&et. A recent 8ritishre$ort reflects this o$timism. Although $roduction is now more $rone to world mar&et $rice shoc&s, their effects on farm incomes are softened %y

e=tensive income su$$orts -van Eic&hout et al. @@?4. Earlier, in a @@ re$ort, a Euro$ean grou$ of agricultural economists wrote( Food securityis no longer a $rime o%"ective of Euro$ean food and agricultural $olicy. 'here is no credi%le threat to theavaila%ility of the %asic ingredients of human nutrition from domestic and foreign sources. f there is a foodsecurity threat it is the $ossi%le disru$tion of su$$lies %y natural disasters or catastro$hic terrorist action. 'he main res$onsenecessary for such $ossi%ilities is the a$$ro$riate contingency $lanning and co#ordination %etween the !ommission

and 3em%er States -Anania et al. @@4. Euro$e, it a$$ears, feels rather sure of itself, and does not worry a%out a $otential food

crisis. We are also not aware of any s$ecial measures on stand%y. evertheless a fledgling Euro$ean internal security has %een called into %eing thatcan %e de$loyed should -food4 crises stri&e. 'he 3aastricht 'reaty -:;;4 created a Muasi#decision#ma&ing $latform to res$ond to trans%oundary threatsSince ;C:: the definition of what constitutes a threat has %een %roadened and the $rotection ca$acity reinforced. n the Solidarity *eclaration of @@mem%er states $romised to stand %y each other in the event of a terrorist attac&, natural disaster or human#made calamity -the Euro$ean Security

Strategy of @@4. E=$erimental forms of coo$eration are tried that leave mem%er#state sovereignty intact, such as$ooling of resources. 'he EU co#o$erates in the area of health and food safety %ut its mechanisms remain decentrslised %y dint of the $rinci$le ofsu%sidiarity. 'he silo mentality %etween the Euro$ean directorates is also unhel$ful, leading to 8a%ylonian confusion. 'hus, in the conte=t of forest firesand floods the Environment *G refers to ]civil $rotection7. 'he Euro$ean Security and *efence Policy- ES*P4 of @@, which is ho$ed to %uild a %ridge %etween internal and e=ternal security $olicy, on the other hand refers to ]crisis management7, while the ]security7 conce$t mainly $ertains to $andemics-)hinard et al. @@2( R:, 8oin et al. @@2( <@4.

Tra&e solves an" impacts6ansch 8 B Senior Associate, !enter for the study of migration. /F55*, U')'5 A* +E+H55* P)EPA)E*ESS F5) A PA*E3!

F+UE_A *SAS'E) GU*A!E F5) +5W#!53E !5U')ES0 Steve Hansch HP Food Security Wor&ing Grou$: une :R, @@2htt$(CC$df.usaid.govC$dfDdocsCPA*UR?.$df

'he ma"or reason food shortages have %ecome less lethal in modern history is the a%ility of glo%al food su$$lies to %uffer any individual region, that is, food has %ecome fluid enough that a rise in food $rices anywhere is met %yincreased su$$ly from the outside. A $andemic will de#cou$le that connection. Food $rice rises in ur%an areas will %e

%alanced %y food $rice declines in near%y rural areasT they will not eMuili%rate.



*#ater #ars

4mpiricall"% water &oesnt cause warawfiel& ( B 'homas +awfield is an 3A candidate at the University for Peace. Water Security( War or PeaceO 'homas +awfield 3ay @, @:@htt$(CCwww.monitor.u$eace.orgCinner$g.cfmOidDarticle?:R

n reality, water does not cause war. 'he arguments $resented a%ove, although correct in $rinci$le, have little $urchase in em$irical evidence.

ndeed, as one author notes, there is only one case of a war where the formal declaration of war was over water.@X 'his was an

incident %etween two 3eso$otamian city states, +agash and Umma, over ,R@@ years 8!, in modern day southern raM. 8oth the initial $remisesand arguments of water war theorists have %een %rought into Muestion. Given this, a num%er of areas of contestation have emerged( IKuestioning %oth

the su$$ly and demand side of the water war argument ...X Kuestioning assum$tions a%out the costs of water resources ...andX *emonstrating thecoo$erative $otential of the water resource.I:X Why then is water not a cause of warO 'he answer lies in two factors( first, theca$acity for ada$tation to water stresses and, second, the $olitical draw%ac&s to cou$ling water and conflict.

First, there is no water crisis, or more correctly, there are a num%er of ada$tation strategies that reduce stress on waterresources and so ma&e conflict less li&ely . Unli&e the water war discourse, which $erceives water as finite in the 3althusian sense, theca$acity for ada$tation to water stress has %een greatly underestimated. For instance, will discuss in $articular a trading

ada$tation &nown as ]virtual water7, which refers to the water used to grow im$orted food. 'his water can %e su%tracted from the total$ro"ected agricultural water needs of a state, and hence allows water scarce states to o$erate on a lower in#country water reMuirement than would otherwise %e e=$ected.X 'his means that regions of the world that are $articularly richin water $roduce water intense agricultural $roducts more easily in the glo%al trade system, while other water scarce areas $roduce low intensity

$roducts.X 'he scale of this water is significant # Allan famously $ointed out that more em%edded water flowsinto the 3iddle East in the form of grain than flows in the ile.<X n addition, there are significant $ro%lemsaround the hegemonic doctrine of the water crisis. 3any authors $oint to relatively low water $rovision $er ca$ita %y states, and

suggest that this will increase the li&elihood of a state engaging in war with a neigh%ouring state, to o%tain the water necessary for its $o$ulation. 'his isnormally a conce$tual lea$ that $roduces the incorrect corollary of conflict, %ut is also freMuently a $ro%lem of data wea&nesses around the $er ca$itareMuirements. For instance, Stuc&i cites the case of the Palestinians %eing under the worst water stress, with a $er ca$ita $rovision %eing in the region of:RmCyear.RX Unfortunately, such an analysis is %ased on false actual $rovision data in this region. 8ased on the authors wor& on water $rovision in+e%anese Palestinian refugee cam$s, the actual $rovision is over ;@mCmonth. Such a figure is highly li&ely to %e re$resentative of other cam$s in the

region.X f this e=am$le is re$resentative of trends to e=aggerate water $ressures in the region, then we should %e sce$tical a%out claimsof increasing water stress. Furthermore, given that many water systems have a $i$e lea&age rate of fifty $er cent,com%ined with a seventy $er cent loss of agricultural water, significant efficiency enhancements could %e madeto e=isting infrastructure. !om%ined with desalination o$tions in many water shortage $rone states, there is anoverall ca$acity for technological and mar&et driven solutions to water scarcity .?X

4ven if the" win the war scenario% water isnt the root cause – politics isawfiel& ( B 'homas +awfield is an 3A candidate at the University for Peace. Water Security( War or PeaceO 'homas +awfield 3ay @, @:@

htt$(CCwww.monitor.u$eace.orgCinner$g.cfmOidDarticle?:R

Second, water wars are not caused %y water, %ut rather an ina%ility of $olitics. 8arnett ma&es the case clear %y arguing that water war would %e a ]failure of $olitics7 rather than the outcome of "ustified demands for essential resources.2X n this

way, it is not scarcity that is the driver in the 3althusian sense, %ut a $olitical, and $oliticised issue. 'his is most

noticea%le where conflict occurs in areas where there are %oth $olitical tensions and water resources challenges. For e=am$le, there are a%surdand e=aggerated claims of a lin&age %etween srael7s water management and surrounding states . n reality, conflictin this region is strongly influenced %y $olitical circumstance that s$ea&s to a wider discourse around srael7s$osition in the ear East. 'hat environmental constraints and $ressures are woven into wider discourses of $olitics is

no indication that they are the cause of conflict, %ut rather more that they are an im$ortant conte=tual factor that may %emo%ilised for $olitical reasons. For instance, in @@@ +e%anon started %uilding a small $um$ing station on the Wa>>ani river which is used %ydownstream srael. 'his ra$idly %ecame a media issue in srael, $ro%a%ly due to the heightened security discourse surrounding water. !laims were madethat the action was com$ara%le to the :;< diversion of the Has%ani, an Ara% coalition move to harm the sraeli economy. However, the story diminishedeven faster than it emerged, when officials on %oth sides showed their dismay at the emerging media fren>y.;X 'here are two &ey trends to note from

this e=am$le( first, that wider discussions around water wars influence the articulation of war in reality, and secondthe water com$onent of the conflict is not significant, rather it acts as a trigger for the utilisation of wider$olitical narratives. n essence, water is merely a tool for $olitical ends. 'hird, war over water is illogical. States are not inherently

%elligerent, %ut act in self interested, utility#ma=imising ways. )ather, they engage in conflict if they stand to gain more than they loose. n the caseof water, the costs of military engagement far outweigh the costs of coo$erative engagement. For instance, 8as&in$oints out that it would cost more for srael to engage in war for the water resources of the West 8an& than it would to %uy the eMuivalent of the West

8an&s aMuifers from elsewhere.@X Water war $rotagonists also $resent the wea& argument that there is a uniMuesituation in the 3iddle East of the $ossi%ility of state territories changing, with water related land gra%s.]ictory may %ring land that offers more resources B either water or oil.7:X 'his is not the case. Stateterritories have %een e=tremely sta%le for over a hundred years B conflict that attem$ts to enlarge %oundaries

would $ro%lematise the very e=istence and legitimacy of the state itself. 8y contrast, if they stand to gain %y esta%lishing

coo$erative relationshi$s with other states in the international system, they will. t is difficult to see how good water management, which freMuently



demands coo$eration, can %e conducted through the use of conflict. 'hat said, there are incidences of water related conflict on the intrastate level. Forinstance, in summer @@@, clashes involving thousands of farmers and $olice occurred in the Huang He river %asin, !hina over government $olicy

changes that meant a local dam runoff would no longer su$$ly irrigation water for farmers %ut instead %e used for ur%anisation. n addition, inPa&istan there have %een clashes %etween farmers in Pun"a% and Sind $rovince over control of the ndus. 8utthese are not resource $ressure issues B rather water acts as one of many other triggers in a wider $ro%lem ofsocial in"ustice and $olitical discourses.

Cooperation solves all of "our impacts – empiricall" true/ 4ven without that% two thir&s of water conflicts are verbal an& the rest have small sanctions/ There hasnt been a real Xwater war for @%7 "ears/ #olf ( B Aaron '. Wolf Ph.*. *e$artment of Geosciences 3.S. in water resources management. 5regon State University , Water, !onflict,

!oo$eration htt$(CC%oo&s.google.comC%oo&sOidSRWarw<G#U!Q$gPA:Ql$gPA:QdMN'herecordofacuteconflictoverinternationalwaterresourcesisoverwhelmed%ytherecordofcoo$erationNQsource%lQots!r)?iKU<Qsigec)h<%+iu"9gSl# AdaPEuS:guAQhlenQeiS!&5'v5K<%%sg%Kn_"c*gQsaLQoi%oo&DresultQctresultQresnum:Qved@!8&KAEwAA1vone$ageQMQffalse

'here is some room for o$timism, though, nota%ly in the glo%al communitys record of resolving water#relateddis$utes along international waterways. For e=am$le, the record of acute conflict over international water resources isoverwhelmed %y the record of coo$eration. 'he last R@ years has seen only ? acute dis$utes -those involving violence4

and, during the same $eriod :R? treaties negotiated and signed. n fact, the last -and only 4 war fought s$ecifically over water too& $lace <,R@@ years ago, %etween the city states of +agash and Umma along the 'igris )iver. 'otal num%er of events in the

last R@ years are eMually weighted towards coo$erationT R@? conflict#related events, and :,2 coo$erative. 3oreover, almost two#thirds of allevents are only ver%al and, of those more than two#thirds are re$orted as having no official sanction at all . 'he

most vehement enemies around the world either have negotiated Water sharing agreements, or are in the $rocess of doing so as of this writing. iolenceover water seems neither strategically rational, hydrogra$hically effective, nor economically via%le. Shared interests along a waterwayseem to consistently outweigh waters conflict#inducing characteristics. Furthermore, once coo$erative waterregimes are esta%lished through treaty, they turn out to %e im$ressively resilient over time, even %etween otherwise hostileri$arians, and even as conflict is waged over other issues. For e=am$le, the 3e&ong !ommittee has functioned since :;R?, e=changing data throughoutthe ietnam War. Secret I$icnic ta%leI tal&s have %een held %etween srael and ordan, since the tm successful ohnston negotiations of :;R#RR, even asthese ri$arian nations were in a legal state of war until recently. And, the ndus )iver !ommission not only survived through two wars %etween ndia and

Pa&istan, %ut treaty#related $ayments continued una%ated throughout the hostilities. These patterns su''est that one valuablelesson of international waters is as a resource whose characteristics ten& to in&ucecooperation% an& incite violence onl" in the eBception/ 'he greatest threat of the glo%al water crisis, then, comes from the

fact that $eo$le and ecosystems around the glo%e Isim$ly0 lac& access to sufficient Muantities of water at sufficient Muality for their well %eing.

Their evi&ence cant eBplain wh" water has le& to cooperation – it has &eescalate& Arab-Isrealian& In&o-<ak conflict

#olf 8 B Aaron '. Wolf Ph.*. *e$artment of Geosciences 3.S. in water resources management. HEA+G 'HE E+GH'E3E' )F'()A'5A+'J, SP)'UA+'J A* SHA)E* WA'E)S htt$(CCwww.trans%oundarywaters.orst.eduC$u%licationsCa%stDdocsCWolf#HealingN@theN@EnlightenmentN@)iftN@@2N@FA+.$df

While $ress re$orts of international waters often focus on conflict, there are encouraging stories throughout the world on how water also induces coo$eration, even in $articularly hostile %asins, and even as dis$utes rage over other issues. 'his has %een true from the ordan 8asin -%etween Ara%s and sraelis4 to the ndus 8asin -%etween ndians and Pa&istanis4 to the 9ura#

Ara&s 8asin -among Georgians, Armenians and A>eris4. *es$ite em$irical research that re$eatedly shows how waterrelated coo$eration has vastly e=ceeded conflict over the last fifty years, $revailing theories fail to e=$lain this$henomenon.: !ertainly, there is a long history of conflicts over, or related to, shared freshwater resourcesT yet, there is also a long and inmany ways dee$er history of water#related coo$eration. Why do countries that share a %asin coo$erate on

water, even when they will not coo$erate over other issuesO Water is a resource u$on which we are all de$endent and for whichthere is little detailed guidance in international law. 8y any Muantitative measure, water should %e the most conflictive of resources, not an eli=ir thatdrives enemies to craft functioning and resilient institutional arrangements.

Cooperate more than fi'ht – historicall" true/ 13W are verbal an& most of those arent public #olf et al 7 [Aaron '. Wolf is $rofessor of geogra$hy in the *e$artment of Geosciences at oregon state university and director of the

trans%oundary freshwater *is$ute *ata%ase. [[Anni&a 9ramer is research fellow [[[Ale=ander !arius is director of adel$hi research in %erlin.[[[[Geoffrey *. *a%el&o is the director of the environmental !hange and security Program at the Woodrow Wilson international !enter for scholars in Washington, *.! /Water !an 8e a PathWay to Pea!e, not War0 htt$(CCwww.wilsoncenter.orgCto$icsC$u%sCavigatingPeacessue:.$df

!ontrary to received wisdom, evidence shows this interde$endence does not lead to war. )esearchers at 5regon State Universitycom$iled a dataset of every re$orted interaction -conflictive or coo$erative4 %etween two or more nations that was driven %y water in the last half century

-see chart4. 'hey found that the rate of coo$eration overwhelms the incidence of acute conflict. n the last R@ years, only? dis$utes involved violence, and @ of those occurred %etween srael and one of its neigh%ors. 5utside of the

3iddle East, researchers found only R violent events while :R? treaties were negotiated and signed. 'he total num%er of water#related events %etween nations also favors coo$eration( the :,2 coo$erative events dwarf the R@?conflict#related events. *es$ite the fiery rhetoric of $oliticians6aimed more often at their own constituencies than at the enemy6most actions



ta&en over water are mild. 5f all the events, $ercent are ver%al, and more than two#thirds of these were not officialstatements. Sim$ly $ut, water is a 'reater pathwa" to peace than conflict in the worl&s internationalriver basins. nternational coo$eration around water has a long and successful historyT some of the world7smost vociferous enemies have negotiated water agreements. 'he institutions they have created are resilient, even when relations

are strained. 'he 3e&ong !ommittee, for e=am$le, esta%lished %y !am%odia, +aos, 'hailand, and ietnam in :;R?,e=changed data and information on the river %asin throughout the ietnam War. srael and ordan held secret/$icnic ta%le0 tal&s to manage the ordan )iver starting in :;R, even though they were officially at war from:;<2 until the :;;< treaty. 'he ndus )iver !ommission survived two ma"or wars %etween ndia and Pa&istan.

And all :@ ile 8asin ri$arian countries are currently involved in senior governmentBlevel negotiations to

develo$ the %asin coo$eratively, des$ite the ver%al %attles conducted in the media. )i$arians will endure such tough,

$rotracted negotiations to ensure access to this essential resource and its economic and social %enefits. Southern African countries signed anum%er of river %asin agreements while the region was em%roiled in a series of wars in the :;?@s and :;2@s,including the /$eo$le7s war0 in South Africa and civil wars in 3o>am%iMue and Angola. 'hese com$le= negotiations

$roduced rare moments of $eaceful coo$eration. ow that most of the wars and the a$artheid era have ended, water management forms oneof the foundations for coo$eration in the region, $roducing one of the first $rotocols signed within the Southern African *evelo$ment!ommunity -SA*!4.

4mpiricall" false – last water war was @%7 "ears a'o/ :ore likel" to lea& to cooperationDIIS @ B *anish nstitute for nternational Studies. *S Wor&ing Pa$er no @@<C F)53 WA'E) ]WA)S7 '5 WA'E) ])5'S7O # +ES S5S

F)53 ')AS85U*A)J WA'E) 3AAGE3E' P)5!EE*GS 5F 'HE 'E)A'5A+ !5FE)E!E, *E!E38E) @@, *S,!5PEHAGE Edited %y anni& 8oesen and Helle 3un& )avn%org

5ne should, however, guard against e=cessive $essimism and ]alarmism7. As re$eatedly $ointed out %y Aaron Wolf and his

colleagues, no actual water wars have occurred %etween nations for more than <,R@@ years, i.e. since a war %etween two 3eso$otamian city#states around ,R@@ 8!. 3oreover, 'Xhe record of acute conflict overinternational water resources is overwhelmed %y the record of coo$eration. -...4 5verall, shared interests, humancreativity and institutional ca$acity along a waterway seem to consistently ameliorate water7s conflict#inducingcharacteristics. Furthermore, once coo$erative water regimes are esta%lished through treaties, they turn out to

%e im$ressively resilient over time, even when %etween otherwise hostile ri$arians, and even as conflict is waged over other issues -Wolf et al. @@(@4.:@

#ater wars are a uni+ue scenario that force cooperation – its too valuable #olf et al 7 [Aaron '. Wolf is $rofessor of geogra$hy in the *e$artment of Geosciences at oregon state university and director of thetrans%oundary freshwater *is$ute *ata%ase. [[Anni&a 9ramer is research fellow [[[Ale=ander !arius is director of adel$hi research in %erlin.[[[[Geoffrey *. *a%el&o is the director of the environmental !hange and security Program at the Woodrow Wilson international !enter for scholars in Washington, *.! /Water !an 8e a PathWay to Pea!e, not War0 htt$(CCwww.wilsoncenter.orgCto$icsC$u%sCavigatingPeacessue:.$df

'hese a$ocaly$tic warnings fly in the face of history( no nations have gone to war s$ecifically over waterresources for thousands of years. nternational water dis$utes6even among fierce enemies6are resolved$eacefully , even as conflicts eru$t over other issues. n fact, instances of coo$eration %etween ri$arian nations outnum%eredconflicts %y more than two to one %etween :;<R and :;;;. WhyO 8ecause water is so im$ortant, nations cannot afford tofight over it. nstead, water fuels greater interde$endence. 8y coming together to "ointly manage their shared

water resources, countries can %uild trust and $revent conflict. Water can %e a negotiating tool, too( it can offer acommunication lifeline connecting countries in the midst of crisis. 'hus, %y crying /water wars,0

Suppl" wont be cut – Chinese promises an& non-Chinese minin'/ Al 0a$eera% X(Al a>eera EnglishT /!hina to !ut )are Earth E=$ortsT0 $u%lished :C;C@:@T htt$(CCenglish.al"a>eera.netCCnewsCasia#$acificC@:@C:C@:@:2@:R;??.htmlT ayX

'he Euro$ean Union has also e=$ressed concern over !hinas limiting of rare earth e=$orts, though the %locs tradecommissioner said earlier this month that !hina had reiterated that the su$$lies would %e sustained. A num%er ofcom$anies in orth America, nota%ly 3olycor$ nc in the US and 'hom$son !ree& 3etals !o in !anada, arerushing to o$en or reo$en rare earth mines. 'wo Australian com$anies are also $re$aring to mine rare earths.8ei"ing has %een trying hard to im$ose disci$line on its rare earth sector and insists that its dominance as a $roducer should give it more control over

glo%al $rices. t $lans to esta%lish a rare earth industry association %y 3ay ne=t year, according to the !hinese industry and

information technology ministry. S$ea&ing at a conference on 'uesday Wang !aifeng, a ministry official, said he ho$ed the %ody would $erform the same

*Rare 4arth :etals

http://english.aljazeera.net//news/asia-pacific/2010/12/2010122820153296776.html






function as the !hina ron and Steel Association %y ensuring the Iorderly develo$mentI of the sector through $ricing and e=$ort Muotas. 'ougherenvironmental regulations for the rare earth sector are also e=$ected to %e unveiled ne=t year, according to !hina 8usiness ews.

)ew an& eas" to mine &eposits .ust &iscovere&/ Al 0a$eera% 92@Al a>eera EnglishT /*iscovery of rare#earth de$osits re$ortedT0 $u%lished ?C<C@::T htt$(CCenglish.al"a>eera.netCCnewsCasia#$acificC@:@C:C@:@:2@:R;??.htmlT ayX

ast de$osits of rare earth minerals, crucial in ma&ing high#tech electronics $roducts, have %een found on the floor of thePacific 5cean and can %e readily e=tracted, a$anese scientists say. *etails of the discovery were $u%lished on 3onday in the online

version of the 8ritish "ournal, ature Geoscience. 'he discovery was made %y a team led %y Jasuhiro 9ato, an associate $rofessor of earth science at theUniversity of 'o&yo, including researchers from the a$an Agency for 3arine#Earth Science and 'echnology. I'he de$osits have a heavyconcentration of rare earths,I 9ato said on 3onday. Iust one sMuare &ilometre of de$osits will %e a%le to $rovideone#fifth of the current glo%al annual consum$tion.I 'hey found the minerals in sea mud e=tracted from de$ths of ,R@@ to ,@@@

metres %elow the ocean surface at ?2 locations. 5ne#third of the sites yielded rich contents of rare earths and the metal yttrium, 9ato. 'he de$ositsare in international waters in an area stretching east and west of Hawaii, as well as east of 'ahiti in French Polynesia, he said.

'he team found that sites close to Hawaii and 'ahiti were es$ecially rich in rare earths, 9ato said. )adioactive ingredients 9ato

estimates rare earths contained in the de$osits amounted to 2@%n to :@@%n tonnes. 'hese de$osits are huge com$ared to glo%alreserves currently confirmed %y the US Geological Survey of "ust ::@ million tonnes that have %een found mainly in !hina, )ussia and otherformer Soviet countries, and the US. Al a>eeras re$ort on !hinas rare earth mono$oly. 'he level of uranium and thorium, radioactiveingredients that are usually contained in such de$osits that can $ose environmental ha>ards, was found to %e one#fifth of those in de$osits on land, 9atosaid. A chronic shortage of rare earths, vital for ma&ing a range of high#technology electronics, magnets and %atteries, has encouraged mining $ro"ectsfor them in recent years. !hina, which accounts for ;? $er cent of glo%al rare earth su$$lies, has %een tightening trade in the strategic metals, s$ar&ing ane=$losion in $rices. a$an, which accounts for a third of glo%al demand, has %een stung %adly, and has %een loo&ing to diversify its su$$ly sources,$articularly of heavy rare earths, such as dys$rosium used in magnets. 9ato said the sea mud was es$ecially rich in heavier rare earths such asgadolinium, lutetium, ter%ium and dys$rosium. I'hese are used to manufacture flat#screen 's, +E* -light#emitting diode4 valves, and hy%rid cars,I he

said. E=tracting the de$osits reMuires $um$ing u$ material from the ocean floor. ISea mud can %e %rought u$ to shi$s and we cane=tract rare earths right there using sim$le acid leaching,I he said. IUsing diluted acid, the $rocess is fast, and within a few hours we can e=tract 2@#;@ $er cent of rare earths from the mud.I

Cuts in suppl" will be fille& b" :a&a'ascar/Seth% 921Shivom Seth, staff writer for 3inewe%, an international mining news$a$erT /ndian firm ma&es ?m. tonne rare earth discoveryT0 $u%lished ?CC@::Thtt$(CCwww.minewe%.comCminewe%CviewCminewe%CenC$age?:@Ooid:@;@:Qsn*etailQ$id:@@RRT ayX

3um%ai#%ased arun Grou$, which has interests in steelware and mining of gold and diamonds, has found rare earth and heavymineral de$osits in 3adagascar, Africa. With a total of .2 million tonnes discovered in :@ %loc&s, the find is e=$ected to hel$

%oost su$$ly in a mar&et where $rices have risen %y ?@N on an average since anuary @@;. 'he com$any is already intal&s with $otential $artners, %oth ndian and international, to develo$ the ten %loc&s. Analysts e=$ect the discovery to %e agame changer for the grou$ which also owns :,::: %loc&s measuring ,;R@ sMuare &ilometers for uranium mining, with thorium and gold as %y#$roduct. !onfirming the find, an official said through its overseas arm, the com$any has discovered ten heavy mineral sand mining %loc&s covering anarea of .R sMuare &ilometre in An&ilimitraha, 8elay and Anala$atsy areas of Anosy region in the )e$u%lic of 3adagascar. 'he total heavy mineralresources in these $ermit areas is a%out .2 million tonnes which contains : million tonnes of ilmenite, :.2< million tonnes of rutile, :.2< milliontonnes of leuco=ene, ;. million tonnes of mona>ite, :2.< million tonnes >ircon, ;. million tonnes of garnet, .? million tonnes sillimanite and ;.

million tonnes of s$inel. /'his is a very encouraging find for the grou$. lmenite and rare earth minerals are in high demand. 'hedemand growth, cou$led with an uncertain su$$ly situation, creates a deficit mar&et in many elements, said arun ndustries vice $resident, A P *hurandhar. Stating that the value of the different minerals ranges %etween R@ to :@@@ $er tonne, the vice

$resident said the mining life of the de$osit is e=$ected to %e a$$ro=imately <@ to R@ years. 'he com$any is conducting thene=t stage of sco$ing study and analysing the mineral content. t e=$ects to start $roducing in the ne=t si= to eight months with an initial $roduction ofaround :,@@,@@@ to R,@@,@@@ tonne $er annum of the concentrate. 'he ndian firms find is e=$ected to hel$ %oost su$$ly in a mar&et that is t ightlycontrolled %y !hina. !hina su$$lies ;N of :? &ey rare earth elements, and has clam$ed on mining in certain areas as well as limited e=$ort Muotas. Analysts say that the !hinese government may further reduce e=$ort Muotas. /'his has s$ar&ed concerns among heavy users li&e a$an and the United

States. Prices have dou%led in the last two wee&s following fears of su$$ly restrictions %y !hina,0 said Sarth Shu&la, analyst at a %ro&ing firm. However, it was "ust a matter of time %efore !hina could see some com$etition and its $ercentage of su$$ly diminishresulting in a wea&ing of its hold on the rare earth minerals mar&et. 'he recent find in a$an and %y the ndian firm could welldesta%lise !hinas $osition.

Rec"clin' will re&uce rare earth &eman&/U<I% 123!UPT /Study( )are earth elements can %e recycledT0 $u%lished C;C@::T htt$(CCwww.u$i.comCScienceDewsC@::C@C;CStudy#)are#earth#elementscan#%e#recycledCUP#R?@:@;2@@COs$thsQorsnT ayX

)ecycling of so#called rare earth elements could ease glo%al concerns a%out a relia%le su$$ly of the su%stancesnow mined mostly in !hina, researchers say. Writing in the "ournal Environment Science Q 'echnology, scientists say the do>en or so rareearth elements, or )EEs, have uniMue $hysical and chemical $ro$erties ma&ing them essential for defense a$$lications, com$uters, cell$hones, electric

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=130901&sn=Detail&pid=102055

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2011/06/29/Study-Rare-earth-elements-can-be-recycled/UPI-57061309386060/?spt=hs&or=sn


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vehicles, %atteries, a$$liances, fertili>ers, liMuid crystal dis$lays and other $roducts. 8ut having only one ma"or source su$$ly, !hina, isa worry, they say. ISince :;;@, !hina has $layed a dominant role in )EE mining $roductionT other countries are almost com$letely de$endent on

im$orts from !hina with res$ect to rare earth resources,I the researchers wrote. )esearchers saya Irecycle and reuseI strategy couldlessen that de$endence. 'hey say theyve done the first#ever analysis of the amount of )EEs availa%le in in#use$roducts in the United States, a$an and !hina, the ma"or users of the materials. 'hey found nearly ;;,@@@ tons )EEs wereincluded in $roducts manufactured in @@?. 'his Iinvisi%leI stoc&, eMuivalent to more than :@ years of mining $roduction, Isuggests that )EErecycling may have the $otential to offset a significant $art of )EE virgin e=traction in the future ... and minimi>e theenvironmental challenges $resent in )EE mining and $rocessing,I the researchers said.

Tra&e will continue – #T pressure/4)DS% 921E*S Euro$e, environmental news and information serviceT /W'5( !hina wrong to restrict rare earth e=$ortsT0 $u%lished ?CC@::Thtt$(CCwww.endseuro$e.comC:Cwto#china#wrong#to#restrict#rare#earth#e=$ortsT ayX

!hinas e=$ort restrictions on rare earth metals such as magnesium and other &ey raw materials are un"ustifia%le onenvironmental or health grounds and must %e removed, a World trade 5rganisation -W'54 $anel concluded on 'uesday.

'he case was %rought to the trade %ody %y the EU, US and 3e=ico in @@;. 'his tactic $uts foreign $roducers at ama"or disadvantage, increasing !hinas e=$ort $rices and limiting the resources availa%ility on the glo%al mar&et, they say. !hina claims these

restrictions hel$ conserve their natural resources and $revent a critical shortage of e=hausti%le $roducts. 8ut the W'5 $anel says it failed toshow it had also cut domestic $roduction and consum$tion to achieve this goal. And the country failed to %ac& its other

claim that the Muotas were health#motivated. 'he EU %elieves the conditions im$osed %y !hina violate its o%ligations underthe W'5s Accession Protocol. !hina "oined the trade %ody in @@:. 'he W'5s *is$ute Settlement 8ody will now call on

!hina to conform with the conclusions. 'he Euro$ean !ommission recently $u%lished a strategy to secure su$$lies of raw materials suchas rare earth metals. 'he $arliaments industry and energy committee ado$ted its $osition on the $lan in une. A $lenary vote is scheduled forSe$tem%er.

US mines will increase pro&uction/:c?en&rick 12(!oe 3c9endric&, contri%uting editor for SmartPlanetT /+argest rare#earth metal mine in US %ac& o$en for %usinessT0 $u%lished C:;C@::Thtt$(CCwww.smart$lanet.comC%logC%usiness#%rainsClargest#rare#earth#metal#mine#in#us#%ac&#o$en#for#%usinessC:<;2T ayX

3olycor$, nc. "ust announced that it has secured the final funds necessary for the ca$ital %uild#out of its estimated ?2:

million e=$ansion and moderni>ation $ro"ect at its flagshi$ rare#earth o=ides facility at 3ountain Pass , !alifornia. 'he first$hase of its mining $ro"ect is e=$ected to %e o$erational %y ne=t year. So whatO When com$leted, the mine will %e thefirst time in a decade that rare#earth o=ides are %eing $roduced in the United States, which once lead the world in such

$roduction. 'he alloys and magnets that are $roduced from the rare#earth metals are needed for a range of today7s emerging high#tech and electronicsystems and devices, from wind tur%ines to com$uter %atteries to smart$hones to hy%rid and electric cars. 'oday, ;RN of the rare#earth metals needed

for today7s technologies are e=tracted in !hina. When Phase : of the $ro"ect is com$leted, e=$ected to occur ne=t year, 3olycor$ says itsmanufacturing assets will com$rise the world7s first fully integrated rare earth manufacturing su$$ly chain, $roducing high#$urity rare earth o=ides, metals, alloys, and neodymium#iron#%oron -dFe84 $ermanent magnets, widely used in trans$ortation, high

tech, clean energy, defense, and other industries. 'he re#o$ening of the site, closed in @@ -documented last *ecem%er %y SmartPlanet

colleague Andrew usca4, offers a hedge against !hina7s dominance of the world7s su$$ly of rare#earth metals. Worldwide

demand for the elements reached :R,@@@ tons in @:@, and is e=$ected to grow to R,@@@ tons %y @:R. According to a re$ort in 'he Economist, chea$ la%or in !hina ateinto the $rofita%ility of the 3ountain Pass site a decade ago( /A decade ago America was the world7s largest $roducer of rare#earth metals. 8ut its huge o$en#cast mine at3ountain Pass, !alifornia, closed in @@6a victim mainly of !hina7s drastically lower la%or costs. 'oday, !hina $roduces ;RN of the world7s su$$ly of rare#earth metals, andhas started limiting e=$orts to &ee$ the country7s own high#tech industries su$$lied.0

)orth ?oreas mines have .ust starte& pro&ucin'/ Eonhap% 921Jonha$ ews AgencyT /. 9orea seen e=$loiting rare earth minerals for e=$ortsT0 $u%lished ?CC@::Thtt$(CCenglish.yonha$news.co.&rCnorth&oreaC@::C@CC2C@<@:@@@@@@AE@::@@@@@:RF.H'3+T ayX

orth 9orea is showing a growing interest in develo$ing rare earth minerals, in an a$$arent %id to earn much#needed cash from selling the materials a%road. )are earth minerals are com$ounds of rare earth metals, including cerium andneodymium, which are used as a crucial element in semiconductors, cars, com$uters and other advanced technology areas. Some ty$es of rare earth

materials can %e used to %uild missiles. n a re$ort carried %y orth 9oreas official 9orean !entral ews Agency -9!A4 earlier this wee&, thecommunist state said it is wor&ing on develo$ing rare earth minerals for economic growth. IAn effectiveutili>ation of rare earth minerals is of weighty significance in economic growth,I the re$ort said, Muoting 9im Hung#"u, vice

de$artment director of the orths 3inistry of State )esource *evelo$ment. I'he *P)9 government has $aid much effort to thee=$loitation and utili>ation of rare earth minerals,I it said, referring to orth 9orea %y the acronym of its official name, the

*emocratic Peo$les )e$u%lic of 9orea. 'he re$ort added that there are large de$osits of high#grade rare earth minerals in the western and eastern $arts of the country, where $ros$ecting wor& and mining have already %egun. t also said the

http://www.endseurope.com/26661/wto-china-wrong-to-restrict-rare-earth-exports

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/business-brains/largest-rare-earth-metal-mine-in-us-back-open-for-business/16498

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/06/23/68/0401000000AEN20110623003600315F.HTML

http://www.endseurope.com/26661/wto-china-wrong-to-restrict-rare-earth-exports

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/business-brains/largest-rare-earth-metal-mine-in-us-back-open-for-business/16498

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rare earth elements are %eing studied in scientific institutes, while some of the research findings have already %een introduced in economic sectors. 'hearticle follows another 9!A re$ort in uly @@; that descri%ed orth 9orean leader 9im ong#ils ins$ection of a semiconductor materials $lant, sayinghe stressed the im$ortance of $roducing more rare earth metals. Until now, orth 9oreas official media have mostly re$orted on the use of rare earth

minerals in medicine and fertili>ers. 8ut its new focus on develo$ing and using the materials a$$ears to stem from thecountrys interest in selling the metals for a high $rice on the international mar&et, according to e=$erts. )are earthelements are %ecoming increasingly e=$ensive, as !hina, the worlds largest rare earth su$$lier, $uts limits on its out$ut and e=$orts. It a$$ears thatorth 9orea only recently started ta&ing an interest in rare earth materials,I said !hoi Gyeong#su, head of the orth 9orea )esources nstitute in Seoul.I'he country does not have the technology to even determine the e=act amount of its reserves, so it doesnt seem li&ely anytime soon that the rare earthmaterials will %e used to $roduce goods for the high#tech industry.I



#armin'

***4nvironment***



)o 4Btinction

Warming wont cause total e=tinction!AS :@ -!alifornia Academy of Sciences, /Warming Q 3ammal 8iodiverstiy0, 3ay <, Science 'oday 8eyondthe Headlines, htt$(CCwww.calacademy.orgCsciencetodayCwarming#mammal#%iodiversityCCCumich#m$4Glo%al warming $ro%a%ly won7t cause the total e=tinction o f li fe, %ut scientists are worried that it will affect the loss of %iodiversity B certain s$ecies in certain areas . 5ften we try and gather clues from e=tinction events to get hints a%out our future, %ut $erha$s we7ve %een missing the forest for the trees

ow, a team of researchers from Stanford and U! 8er&eley are loo&ing at $ast %iodiversity loss for clues. /f we only focus on e=tinction, we are not getting the

whole story,0 said essica 8lois, Ph*, lead author of a study $u%lished online in ature yesterday. Focusing on the last ma"or warming event a%out :,@@@ years ago, 8lois and her Stanford colleague Eli>a%eth Hadly searchedthe Samwell !ave near 3t. Shasta for small mammal fossils. 'hey also sam$led the modern small mammal community %y doing some live tra$$ing in the area of the cave. -enny 3cGuire, a graduate student at the U! 8er&eley, did theradiocar%on dating of the sam$les.4 'hey found %ig changes in the small mammal $o$ulation. /n the Pleistocene, there were a%out as many go$hers as there were voles as there were deer mice,0 Hadly said. /8ut as you move into the warming

event, there is a really ra$id reduction in how evenly these animals are distri%uted.0 As some s$ecies such as deer mice flourished, many other s$ecies declined*eer mice are considered a /weedy0 s$ecies and, li&e the $lants, don7t have a strong ha%itat $reference6they are generalists that will move in wherever there is an o$ening. When they re$lace other small#mammal s$ecies, the effects ri$$lethrough the ecosystem. /Small mammals are so common, we often ta&e them for granted,0 8lois said. /8ut they $lay im$ortant roles within ecosystems, in soil aeration and seed dis$ersal, for e=am$le, and as $rey for larger animals.0 Anddifferent small mammals $lay those roles differently. What7s more, /Even though all of the s$ecies survived, small mammal communities as a whole lost a su%stantial amount of diversity, which may ma&e them less resilient to future change,0

8lois said. And according to Hadly, an e=traordinarily ra$id change is looming. /'he tem$erature change over the ne=t hundred years is e=$ected to %e greater than the tem$erature that most of the mammals that are on the landsca$e have yet witnessed as a s$ecies,0 she said.

'otal e=tinction is much worse than a ;;N e=tinction3uehlhauser :: -+u&e, /Potential !auses of 'otal Human E=tinction in the e=t @@ Jears0, 3arch @,htt$(CCcommonsenseatheism.comCO$:<;CCumich#m$4

3any share the view that total human e=tinction would %e far worse than the loss of ;;.;;;N of allhumans, after which enough humans would survive that they could eventually re$o$ulate Earth and$erha$s the gala=y. 3oreover, total human e=tinction is, $erha$s for the first time in recorded history, Muite $lausi%le. E=$erts who have voiced this concern include 3artin )ees -5ur Final Hour4, ohn +eslie -'he

End of the World4, and others -Glo%al !atastroh$ic )is&s, from which most of the data %elow comes4. Perha$s we ought to ta&e a moment of our time to assess these ris&s. What disasters could cause total human e=tinctionO Well. 'he headeath of the universe definitely will. 8ut that7s a long way off. +et7s %e more $recise. What disasters could cause total human e=tinction in the ne=t @@ yearsO 'here is another reason for framing the Muestion this way. f we can survive the ne=t@@ years, we may %y then %e a%le to u$load our minds into com$uters, ma&e co$ies, and send them off in $ro%es to thousands or millions of destinations in the gala=y. 'hus, it may %e that these ne=t @@ years are the most critical( when totahuman e=tinction is most $lausi%le. 'his may even %e the most critical time -for intelligent life4 in the history of the gala=y. We haven7t received signals B or $ro%es B from any other intelligent life in the gala=y -the Fermi $arado=4. 3ay%e they

never e=isted %ecause intelligent life so rarely evolves, or may%e all other advanced civili>ations destroyed themselves %efore they got to the stage of u$loading themselves to com$uters and sending out masses of $ro%es. So( whatcould cause total human e=tinction in the ne=t @@ yearsO on#Pros$ects for 'otal Human E=tinction A volcanic su$er#eru$tion -E 24 ha$$ens on average every R@,@@@ years, the most recent %eing the 5ruanui eru$tion in ew _ealand R,@@@ years ago. 8ut even if a su$er#eru$tion occurred, humans are now such an ada$tive s$ecies that eventhe largest su$er#eru$tion in Earth7s history would $ro%a%ly not &ill off all humans. 'here would $ro%a%ly %e hundreds of thousands B or millions B of us left to re$o$ulate the glo%e. Solar flares are never large enough to destroy our entireatmos$here, and thus our s$ecies. A near%y su$ernova e=$losion might stri$ the Earth of its o>one layer, allowing $enetration of U rays. 'his would wi$e out most of our s$ecies, %ut we are ada$ta%le enough that we would -%arely4 surviveunderground. +i&ewise, a gamma ray %urst aimed directly at Earth would &ill most of us, %ut would s$are some of those who ha$$en to %e underground at the time. 'he Earth7s magnetic s$here disa$$ears every few hundred thousand years as i

reverses itself. 8ut these events do not correlate with mass e=tinction events, and won7t wi$e out humanity. Climate chan'e wont happen +uickl" enou'h tokill more than a couple billion people in the neBt two centuries% even at worst.

Warming wont lead to com$lete e=tinctionGreen :: -)oedy, PH* from 8ritish !olom%ia, /E=tinction of 3an0,htt$(CCmind$rod.comCenvironmentCe=tinction.htmlCCumich#m$4

3an&ind is em%ar&ing on a strange ecological e=$eriment. 5ver a cou$le of centuries, man is %urning the car%on accumulated over millions of years %y$lants. 'he !5 ₂ levels are now at the level of the Permian e=tinction. 'here have %een two mass e=tinctions in earth history, the Permian, @ million

years ago, was the worst. ?@N of all s$ecies were lost. t was caused %y natural glo%al warming when volcanoes released greenhouse gases. -'he other e=tinction event more familiar to most $eo$le was the more recent 9' !retaceous#'ertiary

3ass E=tinction event, R million years ago. t was caused when an asteroid $lunged into the earth at !hic=ulu% 3e=ico wi$ing out the dinosaurs and half of earth7s s$ecies.4 We are re#e=$eriencing thesame glo%al warming conditions that triggered the more devastating Permian e=tinction, only thistime it is man made. When it gets too hot, $lants die. When it gets too hot and dry, massive fires ravage huge areas. When $lants die, insects and her%ivores die. When insects die, even heat#resistant $lant7s don7t get

$ollinated and die. 8irds die without insects to eat. !arnivores die without her%ivores to eat, all triggered %y what seems so innocuous 6 heat. Similarly, in the oceans, when they get "ust a few degrees too warm, corals e=$el their sym%iotic algaand die soon thereafter. When coral reefs die, the fish that live on them die, triggering e=tinction chains. Satellites can chart the loss of vegetation over the $lanet. We are losing < s$ecies $er hour, a rate on the same scale as the Permian and 9'

e=tinction events. 3an has no a%ility to live without the su$$ort of other s$ecies. We are committing suicide and &illing the family of life on earth along with us. 'he Muestion is, will we wi$e ourselves outalong with the rest of the $lanet7s ecologyO 3an is very ada$ta%le. He will destroy his food su$$ly on

land and in the oceans as a result, %ut some $eo$le will survive. 'hat is not com$lete e=tinction.Glo%al warming wont lead to e=tinction

AS. !om:: -nternational we% forum, /Glo%al Warming0, htt$(CCwww.a$ocaly$se#soon.comCglo%alDwarming.htmCCumich#m$4 Although the discussion of glo%al warming often focuses on tem$erature, glo%al warming or any climate change may cause changes in other geogra$hical elements as well, including changes in sea level, amount and $attern of $reci$itation

climate $atterns and various other forms of climate change. 8y the end of this century it is li&ely that greenhouse gases will have dou%ledand the average glo%al tem$erature will have risen %y at least !. n the worst case scenario it couldcom$letely alter the climate in many regions of the world. Such changes can trigger variousdetrimental effects %y causing floods, droughts, heat waves, reduction of agricultural yields whichcould lead in turn to glo%al food insecurity and the wides$read colla$se of e=isting social systems,causing mass migration and conflict over resources as some $arts of the world %ecome much less

http://www.apocalypse-soon.com/global_warming.htm//umich-mp






ha%ita%le / This wont result in mass eBtinction of human race but si'nificant casualtiesma" occur/ Facts 'em$eratures in the lower tro$os$here have increased at somewhere %etween @.: and @. ! $er decade since :;?;. 5ver the $ast :# thousand years %efore :2R@ the tem$erature has %een relatively

sta%le, with various -$ossi%ly local4 fluctuations, such as the 3edieval Warm Period or the +ittle ce Age. 5ver the $ast century or so the glo%al -land and sea4 tem$erature has increased %y a$$ro=imately @. p @.! . At the same time,atmos$heric car%on dio=ide has increased from around 2@ $arts $er million in :2@@ to around :R in :;R2 and ? in @@@. 5ther greenhouse gas emissions have also increased. !limate models, driven %y estimates of increasing car%on dio=idand to a lesser e=tent %y generally decreasing sulfate aerosols, $redict that tem$eratures will increase -with a range of :.<! to R.2! for change %etween :;;@ and :@@4. 3uch of this uncertainty results from not &nowing future !5 emissions %ut there is also uncertainty a%out the accuracy of climate models. !limate commitment studies $redict that even if levels of greenhouse gases and solar activity were to remain constant, the glo%al climate is committed to @.R! of warming ovethe ne=t one hundred years due to the lag in warming caused %y the oceans. Sudden release of methane clathrate -a greenhouse gas4 has %een hy$othesi>ed as a cause of $ast glo%al warming. 'wo events $ossi%ly lin&ed in this way are thePermian#'riassic e=tinction event and the Paleocene#Eocene 'hermal 3a=imum. However, warming at the end of the last ice age is thought to not %e due to clathrate release. !auses 'he climate system varies %oth through natural, Iinternal$rocesses as well as in res$onse to variations in e=ternal IforcingI from %oth human and non#human causes, including changes in the Earths or%it around the Sun -3ilan&ovitch cycles4, solar activity, and volcanic emissions as well as greenhousegases. 'he scientific consensus is that a significant $ro$ortion of this $ast rise, $articularly in the last R#R@ years, is due to humanitys emission of greenhouse gases such as car%on dio=ide -!54. 'his consensus is summari>ed %y the findings ofthe ntergovernmental Panel on !limate !hange -P!!4. n the 'hird Assessment )e$ort, the P!! concluded that Imost of the warming o%served over the last R@ years is attri%uta%le to human activitiesI. Although the scientific consensus isclear on the general conclusions # enough to $ersuade the governments of more than :<@ countries to ratify the 9yoto Protocol # there are issues a%out "ust how much greenhouse gas emissions warm the $lanet. 'he uncertainties have in the $ast %een e=$loited %y $oliticians, cor$orations, and others with vested interests in o$$osing the activities needed to mitigate glo%al warmingT however, %usiness o$inion is increasingly changing to acce$t glo%al warming as real and that action isneeded. 'he scientific consensus is otherwise o$$osed %y only a small minority of scientists. !ar%on dio=ide during the last <@@,@@@ years and the ra$id rise since the ndustrial )evolution. !oal#%urning $ower $lants, automo%ile e=haustsfactory smo&estac&s, and other waste vents of the human environment contri%ute a%out %illion tons of car%on dio=ide and other greenhouse gases into the earths atmos$here each year. A%out half of human emissions has remained in theatmos$here. 'he atmos$heric concentration of !5 has increased %y :N a%ove $re#industrial levels since :?R@. 'his is considera%ly higher than at any time during the last <@,@@@ years, the $eriod for which relia%le data has %een e=tractedfrom ice cores. From less direct geological evidence it is %elieved that !5 values this high were last attained <@ million years ago. A%out three#Muarters of the anthro$ogenic emissions of !5 to the atmos$here during the $ast @ years is due to

fossil fuel %urning. 'he rest is $redominantly due to land#use change, es$ecially deforestation. n $articular, the change in climate forcing from greenhouse gases since :?R@ was estimated to %e 2 times larger than the change in forcing due to

increasing solar activity over the same $eriod. Effects 'he $redicted effects of glo%al warming are many and various, %oth for theenvironment and for human life. 'he $rimary effect -indeed, the $rimary sym$tom4 of glo%al warming is increasing car%ondio=ide and increasing glo%al average tem$erature. From this flow a variety of secondary effects, including sea level riseim$acts on agriculture, reductions in the o>one layer -see %elow4, increased e=treme weather, and the s$readof disease. n some cases, the effects may already %e %eing e=$erienced, although it is generallydifficult to attri%ute s$ecific natural $henomena to long#term glo%al warming. 5ceans Sea level rise With increasing average glo%a

tem$erature, the water in the oceans e=$ands in volume, and additional water enters them which had $reviously %een loc&ed u$ on land in glaciers and the $olar ice ca$s. Although no definite $redictions e=ist as to the e=act magnitude, timingand distri%ution of sea level rise, most estimates foresee that an increase of :.R#<.R! will lead to an increase of :R B ;Rcm -P!! @@:4. 'he sea level has risen more than :@ metres since the $ea& of the last ice age a%out :2,@@@ years ago. 'h %ul& of that occurred %efore @@@ years ago. From @@@ years ago to the start of the :;th century sea level was almost constant, rising at @.:#@. mmCyT since :;@@ the level has risen at :# mmCy T since :;; satellite altimetry from'5PELCPoseidon indicates a rate of a%out mmCy.. f ice ca$s in Greenland and Antarctica melt, the Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels %y more than @ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet %y another :Rft. Some countries will %e moreaffected than others # low#lying countries such as 8angladesh and the etherlands will %e worst hit %y any sea level rise, in terms of floods or the cost of $reventing them. 'em$erature rise 'he tem$erature of the Antarctic Southern 5cean rose %y @.:?! %etween the :;R@s and the :;2@s, nearly twice the rate for the worlds oceans as a whole. As well as effects on ecosystems -eg %y melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside4, warming could reduce the oceans a%ility toa%sor% !5. Acidification 'he world7s oceans soa& u$ much of the car%on dio=ide $roduced %y living organisms, either as dissolved gas, or in the s&eletons of tiny marine creatures that fall to the %ottom to %ecome chal& or limestone. 8ut in water, car%on dio=ide %ecomes a wea& car%onic acid, and Ithe increase in the greenhouse gas since the industrial revolution has already altered the average $H # the la%oratory measure of acidity # significantly and will go on doing so for at least:@@ years.I 'here are concerns that increasing acidification could have a $articularly detrimental effect on corals -:N of the worlds coral reefs have died from %leaching since :;;24 and other marine organisms with calcium car%onate shellsncreased acidity may also directly affect the growth and re$roduction of fish as well as the $lan&ton on which they rely on for food. Scientists warn that the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways un$recedented for @ million years. Some$redict that the worlds coral reefs will die within R years. *esta%ili>ation of ocean currents 'here is some s$eculation that glo%al warming could trigger locali>ed cooling in the orth Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in thatregion, affecting in $articular areas li&e Scandinavia and 8ritain that are warmed %y the orth Atlantic drift. Professor 3i&e Schlesinger, of the University of llinois, re$orted that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a Ilow $ro%a%ilityeventI, was now <R $er cent li&ely this century, and ?@ $er cent $ro%a%le %y @@. f it comes sooner rather than later it will %e catastro$hic for 8ritain and northern Euro$e, giving us a climate li&e +a%rador -which shares our latitude4 even as therest of the world heats u$( if it comes later it could %e %eneficial, moderating the worst of the warming. Heat is trans$orted from the eMuator $olewards mostly %y the atmos$here %ut also %y ocean currents, with warm water near the surface andcold water at dee$er levels. 'he %est &nown segment of this 'hermohaline circulation -'H!4 is the Gulf Stream. Warm water from the !arri%ean is trans$orted to the orth Atlantic, where its effect in warming the atmos$here contri%utes to warming Euro$e. 'he eva$oration of ocean water in the orth Atlantic increases the salinity -relative saltiness4 of the water as well as cooling it, %oth actions increasing the density of water at the surface. 'he formation of sea ice further increasesthe salinity. 'his dense water then sin&s and the circulation stream continues in a southerly direction. Glo%al warming could lead to an increase in freshwater in the northern oceans, %y melting glaciers in Greenland and %y increasing$reci$itation. A recent movie descri%es such a scenario. 'he Gulf Stream is no longer trans$orting warm water to Euro$e, the tro$ics get hotter and hotter, and the $oles colder and colder. n a series of massive thunderstorms, the atmos$herfli$s over, and increasingly cold stratos$heric air is drawn down to the earths surface, creating a low#$ressure system that $roduces hundreds of feet of snow. 'em$eratures in !anada dro$ :@@ degrees in an hour. ust a%out everyone north of Washington, *.!., dies. 'he following summer, the ice melts and a continental flood ensues. Hurricanes hit 8elfast. San Francisco 8ay free>es. Hailstones the si>e of canned hams %om% 'o&yo. 3ore e=treme weather As the climate grows warmer, eva$oration will increase. 'his will cause heavier rainfall and more erosion, and in more vulnera%le tro$ical areas -es$ecially in Africa4, desertification. 3any scientists thin& that it could result in more e=treme weather as glo%al warmin$rogresses. 'he P!! 'hird Annual )e$ort says( I...glo%al average water va$our concentration and $reci$itation are $ro"ected to increase during the :st century. 8y the second half of the :st century, it is li&ely that $reci$itation will haveincreased over northern mid# to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are %oth regional increases and decreases over land areas. +arger year to year variations in $reci$itation are very li&ely over most areas where anincrease in mean $reci$itation is $ro"ectedI. Water scarcity Sea level rises threaten to contaminate groundwater, affecting drin&ing water and agriculture in coastal >ones. ncreased eva$oration will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirsncreased e=treme weather means more water falls on hardened ground una%le to a%sor% it # leading to flash floods instead of a re$lenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. n some areas, shrin&ing glaciers threaten the water su$$lyHigher tem$eratures will also increase the demand for water for cooling $ur$oses. n the Sahel, there has %een on average a R $er cent decrease in annual rainfall over the $ast @ years. atural catastro$hes According to one study, RB<@N othe worst catastro$hes have %een climate change related -E)3, @@4. 5ver the $ast three decades, the $ro$ortion of the glo%al $o$ulation affected %y weather#related disasters has dou%led in linear trend, rising from roughly N in :;?R to <N in@@:.-E)3, @@4. 'he total surface area of glaciers worldwide has decreased %y R@N since the end of the :;th century. As of 3arch @@R, the snow ca$ that has covered the to$ of 3ount 9iliman"aro for the $ast ::,@@@ years since the last iceage has almost disa$$eared :2X. 'he loss of glaciers not only directly causes landslides, flash floods and glacial la&e overflow, %ut also increases annual variation in water flows in rivers. Glaciers retain water on mountains in high $reci$itation years, since the snow cover accumulating on glaciers $rotects the ice from melting. n warmer and drier years, glaciers offset the lower $reci$itation amounts with a higher meltwater in$ut. Hurricanes were thought to %e an entirely north Atlantic $henomenon. n A$ril @@<, the first Atlantic hurricane to form south of the EMuator hit 8ra>il with ;@ m$h windsT monitoring systems may have to %e e=tended :@@@ miles further south. Preci$itation hitting the US from hurricaneincreased %y ?N over the twentieth century. Hurricanes, ty$hoons and violent storms $roliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas. 'he storms gather their energy from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat u$, fiercer ones occur and threatenareas where at $resent the seas are too cool for such weather Forests face an increased ris& of forest fires which could release vast amounts of car%on dio=ide to s$eed glo%al warming. 'he :@#year average of %oreal forest %urned in orth Americaafter several decades of around .R million acres, has increased steadily since :;?@ to more than ? million acres annually. 8ritains 3et 5ffice $redicted in :;;; that much of the Ama>on will dry out and die within R@ years, ma&ing it ready fors$ar&s # from humans or lightning # to set it a%la>e. )educed o>one layer 5ne of the lesser#&nown effects of glo%al warming is a reduction in the thic&ness of the o>one layer, which $rotects life on Earth from harmful radiation. Glo%al warminga$$ears to %e $artially countering the im$rovements in the o>one layer caused %y the reduction in the use of o>one#destroying chemicals achieved through the 3ontreal Protocol. IWhat a$$ears to have caused the further loss of o>one is theincreasing num%er of stratos$heric clouds in the winter, :R miles a%ove the earth. 'hese clouds, in the middle of the o>one layer, $rovide a $latform which ma&es it easier for ra$id chemical reactions which destroy o>one to ta&e $lace.I 'heecological im$act may have further &noc&#on effects, as it reduces $hotosynthesis in $lants -with $otential im$acts on agriculture4 and damages the *A of $lan&ton, which $lay a significant role in the worlds car%on cycle. Environmenta

Secondary evidence of glo%al warming 6 lessened snow cover, rising sea levels, weather changes 6 $rovides e=am$les of conseMuences of glo%al warming that may influence not only human activities %ut also ecosystems. ncreasing glo%altem$erature means that ecosystems may changeT some s$ecies may %e forced out of their ha%itats -$ossi%ly to e=tinction4 %ecause of changing conditions, while others may flourish. Few of the terrestrial ecoregions on Earth could e=$ect to %unaffected. )ising tem$eratures are %eginning to im$act on ecosystems. 8utterflies have shifted their ranges northward %y @@ &m in Euro$e and orth America. Plants lag %ehind, and larger animals migration is slowed down %y cities andhighways. n the Arctic, the waters of Hudson 8ay are ice#free for three wee&s longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting $olar %ears, which do not hunt on land. For some time it was ho$ed that a $ositive effect of glo%al warming would %eincreased agricultural yields, %ecause of the role of !5 in $hotosynthesis. Whilst local %enefits may %e felt in some regions -such as Si%eria or celand4, recent evidence is that glo%al yields will %e negatively affected. I)ising atmos$heritem$eratures, longer droughts and side#effects of %oth, such as higher levels of ground#level o>one gas, are li&ely to %ring a%out a su%stantial reduction in cro$ yields in the coming decades. 3oreover, a %almier $lanet could also assist the s$readof infectious disease %y $roviding a more suita%le climate for $arasites and s$reading the range of tro$ical $athogens. 'hat could include cro$ diseases which, com%ined with su%stantial climate shifts, might cause famine. Effects could %e evenmore dramatic 3igration Some Pacific 5cean island nations, such as 'uvalu, are concerned a%out the $ossi%ility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may %ecome economically unvia%le for them. 'uvalu already has an ad hoc agreemen with ew _ealand to allow $hased relocation. n the :;;@s a variety of estimates $laced the num%er of environmental refugees at around R million. -Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugees, which onlyincludes migrants fleeing $ersecution.4 'he ntergovernmental Panel on !limate !hange -P!!4, which advises the world7s governments under the aus$ices of the U, estimated that :R@ million environmental refugees will e=ist in the year @R@,

due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disru$tion. -:R@ million means :.R $ercent of @R@7s $redicted :@ %illion world $o$ulation. Health )ising tem$eratures havetwo o$$osing direct effects on mortality( higher tem$eratures in winter reduce deaths from coldThigher tem$eratures in summer increase heat#related deaths. n August @@ a heatwave in Euro$e &illed #R,@@@ $eo$le, %ased on normal mortality rate

-Sch`r and endrit>&y, @@<4. t can %e said with ;@N confidence that $ast human influence on climate was res$onsi%le for at least half the ris& of the @@ Euro$ean summer heat#wave -Stott et al @@<4. f average tem$eratures increase %y :degree !, there will %e an estimated <,@@@ additional murders in the US each year -as the additional heat stress leads to more freMuent rage4. -ew Scientist ::CRC@, review of 8ody Heat %y 3ar& 8lum%erg.4 t has %een claimed that glo%a warming will $ro%a%ly e=tend the favora%le >ones for vectors conveying infectious disease such as malaria. However, it has %een $ointed out that des$ite the disa$$earance of infectious disease most tem$erate regions, the indigenous mosMuitoe

that transmitted it were never eliminated and remain common in some areas. 'hus, although tem$erature is im$ortant in the transmission dynamicsof malaria, many other varia%les are of eMual or greater im$ortance. n $oorer countries, this maysim$ly lead to higher incidence of such diseases. n richer countries , where such diseases have %een eliminated or &e$t in chec& %y vaccination

draining swam$s and using $esticides, the conseMuences may %e felt more in economic than health terms, if greaters$ending on $reventative measures is reMuired. A reduced o>one layer has negative im$acts onhuman health # nota%ly s&in cancer and eye $ro%lems such as cataracts . However, the net effect of thethinning of the o>one layer on human health may %e $ositive. )esearch %y *r. Edward Giovannucci, a HarvardUniversity $rofessor of medicine and nutrition who gave a &eynote lecture at a recent American Association for !ancer )esearch, suggests that vitamin* might hel$ $revent @ deaths for each one caused %y s&in cancer. itamin * is nic&named the Isunshine vitaminI %ecause the s&in ma&es it from

ultraviolet rays.

o evidence to su$$ort e=tinction.



dso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$45f the twenty#four 'ier : -':4 and 'ier -'4 studies analy>ed %y )oot et al., five of them, according to our analyses, directly refute the !5#induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis . n res$onse to regional warming, two of these studies -':.<, ':.R4 descri%e o$$ortunistic $olewar

e=tensions of the cold#limited range %oundaries of a num%er of s$ecies that were accom$anied %y no forced

changes in their heat limited

range %oundaries, leading to actual range e=$ansions,

which shoul&make eBtinction even less likel" for the stu&ie& species than it was before the warmin''wo other studies -':.?, ':.24 descri%e u$slo$e e=tensions of the cold#limited range %oundaries of lower#elevation s$ecies that did not result in any loss of higher#elevation s$ecies. Another study -'.<

demonstrated that certain s$ecies, when faced with a warming#induced im$etus to migrate, dramatically changed %oththeir %ehavior and $hysical characteristics in ways that no one had $reviously %elieved $ossi%le, allowing them to /cross ha%itatdis"unctions that would have re$resented ma"or or com$lete %arriers to dis$ersal %efore thee=$ansions started.0 5ver half of the ': and ' studies analy>ed %y )oot et al. were sim$ly e=am$les of the o$$ortunistic $oleward or u$ward e=tensions of s$ecies7 cold#limited range %oundaries in res$onse to

regional or glo%al warming, a $henomenon that reveals a%solutely nothing a%out the res$onses of their heat#limited range %oundaries, &nowledge of which is critical to an evaluation of the !5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesisine of these studies dealt with latitudinal range e=tensions -':., ':., ':.:@, ':.::, '.:, '.R, '.;, '.:@, '.::4, three with elevational range e=tensions -':.;, '., '.24, and one with some of each -'.4. 'hese studies demonstrate whatshould %e almost $renatal &nowledge( if the climate warms, s$ecies of %oth $lants and animals will e=$and into areas where it was $reviously too cold for them to live, a $henomenon that suggests an a%ility to avoid e=tinction rather thansuccum% to it. 'he remaining si= ': and ' studies analy>ed %y )oot et al. were hy%rids of sorts, which really did not address the su%"ect of s$ecies7 range res$onses to glo%al warming. 'he u$slo$e migrations discussed in ':.:, for e=am$leturned out to %e due to environmental changes induced %y local logging $ractices rather than regional warming. +i&ewise, the cold#limited %oundary e=tension of ':. may also have %een caused %y something other than warmingT and the resultsof '. were so com$le= that the authors could not decide what caused the range e=$ansions. Somewhat similarly, the authors of '.:, although demonstrating a latitudinal shifting of s $ecies, were not a%le to conclude uneMuivocally that it wasdue to regional warmingT while the latitudinal heat#limited %oundary e=tensions discussed in '.: were due to cooling and increased $reci$itation. Finally, the range e=$ansions descri%ed in '.? would not even have occurred if the e=otic

s$ecies involved had not %een trans$orted into the area of study from half#way around the world. n light of these o%servations, it is clear that the scientific articles studied %y )oot et al. that aremost a$$lica%le to the !5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis fail to $rovide a single

$iece of evidence in su$$ort of it. n fact, most of the &nowledge gleaned from them does not even addressthe su%"ectT while that which is $ertinent actually contradicts the hy$othesis.

o e=tinctiondso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4

L. !onclusions 'he !5#induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis claims that as the world warms inres$onse to the ongoing rise in the air7s !5 content, many s$ecies of $lants and animals will not %e

a%le to migrate either $oleward in latitude or u$ward in elevation fast enough to avoid e=tinction asthey try to esca$e the stress im$osed %y the rising tem$erature . With res$ect to $lants, however, we have shown that as long as theatmos$here7s !5 concentration rises in tandem with its tem$erature, most of them will not /feel theheat,0 as their $hysiology will change in ways that ma&e them %etter ada$ted to warmer conditions . Hence, althoug

earth7s $lants will li&ely s$read $oleward and u$ward at the cold#limited %oundaries of their ranges in res$onse to a warming#induced o$$ortunity to do so, their heat#limited %oundaries will $ro%a%ly remain $retty much as they are now or shif

only slightly. !onseMuently , in a world of rising atmos$heric !5 concentration, the ranges of most of earth7s $lants will li&ely e=$and if the $lanet continues to warm, ma&ing $lant e=tinctions even less li&ely than theyare currently. Animals should react much the same way . n res$onse to concurrent increases in atmos$heric tem$erature and !5 concentration, they will li&ely

migrate $oleward and u$ward, where cold tem$eratures $revented them from going in the $ast, as they follow earth7s $lants. Also as with earth7s $lants, the heat#limited %oundaries of their ranges should in many cases %e little affected, as has %een o%served in several of the real#world studies that have %een wrongly cited as $roviding evidence for im$ending s$ecies e=tinctions, or their entire ranges may sim$ly shift with the rising tem$erature, as has %een o%served in many real#world

studies of marine ecosystems. 'o summari>e, %oth theory and o%servation $aint the same $icture. A goodly $ortion of earth7s $lants and animals shouldactually e=$and their ranges and gain a stronger foothold on the $lanet as the atmos$here7stem$erature and !5 concentration continue to rise. f the air7s !5 content were suddenly to sto$ increasing, however, the %ios$here could find itself facing a significan

challenge, as the world7s $lants would cease acMuiring the e=tra $hysiological $rotection against heat stress that is afforded them %y rising atmos$heric !5 concentrations. !onseMuently , the end result ofcurtailing anthro$ogenic !5 emissions might well %e "ust the o$$osite of what many $eo$le areho$ing to accom$lish %y encouraging that $olicy, i.e., many s$ecies might actually %e driven toe=tinction, rather than %eing saved from such a fate.

3ost e=tinction hy$es are "ust media hy$e and s&ewed results.dso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4



. 3ore !limate#Alarmist !laims of E=tinction !owling is right on target with her assessment of the issue. 3easures designed to slow the rate of rise of the air7s !5content would actually %e counter$roductive and detrimental to the %ios$here, in that they would de$riveearth7s vegetation -and its associated animal life4 of much of its ca$acity to adeMuately acclimate to risingtem$eratures forced %y $henomena unrelated to the air7s !5 content, such as variations in solar activity. However, the $olitica$ressure to res$ond to the counterfeit ethics of the !5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinctionhy$othesis is so great that %oth logic and facts count for little in the de%ate over what to do 6 or not doY B

a%out the ongoing rise in the air7s !5 content. 'hus, the media onslaught continues, with each new scientific study that can$ossi%ly %e construed to su$$ort a doom#and#gloom scenario %eing heralded as another im$ortant

$iece of evidence for the validity of the contention that earth7s %ios$here is already in $rocess of %eingdecimated %y glo%al warming. 8ut we hear so many stories of $lants and animals %eing forced to move to higher latitudes and elevations over the $ast century and a half of increasing atmos$heric !5

and tem$erature. Aren7t at least some of them trueO And what a%out the recent studies of Parmesan and Johe -@@4 and )oot et al. -@@4, numerous $ress re$orts of which con"ure u$ ghastly visions of an imminent mass e=tinctionO *on7t they

refute what we have "ust concludedO 8efore answering these Muestions, it is im$ortant to note that the %lame for the oft re$eated %ut falsecontention that glo%al warming will decimate earth7s %ios$here cannot %e laid solely at the feet of the$o$ular $ress. 3any of the scientists involved in the studies that have %een construed to im$ly the validity of the !5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis have themselves %een the sources of much of the ram$an

s$eculation. )oot herself, for e=am$le, was Muoted in one article descri%ing her team7s wor& -$ost#ga>ette.com Health Q Science, anuary @@4 as saying /animals and $lants are %eing strongly affected %y warming of the glo%e0 and /in myo$inion, we7re sitting at the edge of a mass e=tinction,0 while in another article from the ew Jor& 'imes -/Glo%al Warming Found to *is$lace S$ecies,0 authored %y Andrew !. )ev&in, anuary @@4, she was Muoted as saying /it7s really $retty

frightening to thin& what we might see in the ne=t :@@ years.0 5ther scientists are also Muic& to $romote the unholy vision of anim$ending %iological a$ocaly$se. n a related story -!.com, anuary @@4, for e=am$le, it was re$orted that Alastair Fitter, a $rofessor of %iology at the University of Jor&, said /the studies

conclusions that the ranges of hundreds of s$ecies are shifting northward in res$onse to warming tem$eratures are disconcerting,0 adding that if tem$eratures rise as $redicted, /it may drive some $lant and animal s$ecies to e=tinction as their

ranges shrin&.0 Still other re$orts $ut the /%ad news0 right u$ front in their titles . An Environment ews Service re$ort of anuary @@ declared /Hundred

of S$ecies Pressured %y Glo%al Warming,0 while ature Science U$date trum$eted on anuary @@ that /Huge studies analy>e climate change7s toll on $lants and animals across glo%e.0 +i&ewise, a )oc&y 3ountain ews headline of anuary@@ declared /S$ecies at ris& as glo%al warming s$urs climate change,0 re$orting in the %ody of the story that scientists said the studies /foretell the e=tinction of many s$ecies in the coming decades as rising tem$eratures force them to retrea

from their historic ranges.0 Although these re$orts may seem com$elling, they do not live u$ to their dramatic %illing

when carefully analy>ed. n fact, as we shall shortly demonstrate, the vast %ul& of the scientific studies that $rom$ted themactually do "ust the o$$osite of what climate alarmists claim they do . )ather than suggesting earth7s %ios$here is a%out to suffer irre$ara%le damage as a result of $ast natural warming and future$redicted warming, they actually su%stantiate nearly everything we have deduced from what is &nowna%out the effects of atmos$heric !5 enrichment on $lant $hysiology . 3ost im$ortantly, they $ortray a %ios$hereof increased s$ecies richness almost everywhere on earth in res$onse to the glo%al warming andincrease in atmos$heric !5 concentration of the $ast century and a half that has $romoted a greate=$ansion of s$ecies7 ranges throughout the entire world.



A3 Stu&ies

Studies are wrongdso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4

. 5ur A$$raisal of the )oot et al. -@@4 Study

)oot et al. -@@4, %y their own admission,

e=amined /thousands of articles0 in reaching their conclusion that /a significant im$act of glo%a

warming,0 which they consider to %e e=tremely negative, /is already discerni%le in animal and $lant $o$ulations.0 However, most of this mountain of evidence wasre"ected %y them. WhyO t was re"ected %ecause, as they o$enly admit, they chose to include only those studies that /-:4 e=amineda s$an of at least :@ years, -4 found that a trait of at least one s$ecies shows change over time, and -4found either a tem$oral change in tem$erature at the study site or a strong association %etween thes$ecies trait and sites$ecific tem$erature.0 'hin& a%out that. f a study did not indicate that /at leastone s$ecies shows change over time0 or that there was /a strong association %etween the s$ecies traitand sites$ecific tem$erature,0 the study was ignored. 'al& a%out stac&ing the dec& in favor of one7shy$othesisY f a study showed that a s$ecies7 $o$ulation was sta%le over time or did not show a strongassociation %etween one of its traits and changing tem$erature $atterns 6 such as we would $redict for the heat#limited %oundary of a s$ecies

range, which conseMuence would tend to refute the !5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis 6 it was dro$$ed from further consideration. So "ust how e=tensive was thi

stac&ing of the dec&O 5f the thousands of articles )oot et al. e=amined, they selected a mere one hundred and forty#three for detailed scrutiny. *oes this massive filtering of the data mean therecould %e hundreds u$on hundreds 6 if not thousands 6 of studies that run counter to their hy$othesis O 'here is a strong$ossi%ility that it does, es$ecially in light of what we are a%out to learn a%out the studies they did use. From among the :< /Mualifying0 articles that survived their uniMue filtering $rocess, )oot et al. created tw

categories of studies. 'ier : studies, of which there were 2R, were /those demonstrating a statistically significant trend for at least one s$ecies e=amined.0 'ier studies, of which there were R2, were /those in which statistical significance was notshown %y the study7s authors,0 which gives yet another indication of the $aucity of $ertinent data they em$loyed in reaching their swee$ing glo%al conclusions. Within these two tiers of $a$ers, )oot et al. evaluated changes in four s$ecies traits(-:4 s$ecies densities at given locations and s$ecies ranges, -4 the timing of significant s$ecies life#cycle events, -4 s$ecies mor$hology, and -<4 s$ecies genetic freMuencies. However, only the first of these traits $rovide data that are a$$ro$riatefor evaluating the hy$othesis that !5 #induced glo%al warming will force $lants and animals to migrate to cooler regions of the $lanet. 'he im$act of this last o%servation is such that of the 2R 'ier : articles evaluated %y )oot et al. 6 again %y

their own admission 6 only eleven contain information on s$ecies range shiftsT while of the R2 'ier $a$ers they evaluated, a mere thirteen deal with the su%"ect. Hence, out of the thousands of articlesthey originally e=amined, only two do>en contain data that might %e a$$ro$riate for evaluating the!5 #induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis T and over half of them lay no claim to $ossessingany statistical significance, which truly s$ea&s volumes a%out how underwhelming is the case their$a$er ma&es for )oot7s contention that /we7re sitting at the edge of a mass e=tinction .0 evertheless, to com$lete our analysis

we ne=t evaluate each of the < $otentially $ertinent $a$ers in the order in which )oot et al. list them in their Su$$lemental A$$endices : and , dealing first with their 'ier : studies and then their 'ier studies.

Studies fail# there is no evidence of warming.dso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4'his first of the eleven articles that are claime& %y )oot et al. to provi&e statisticall" si'nificant evi&ence for theproposition that an impact of 'lobal warmin' =is alrea&" &iscernible in animal an&plant populations0 fails miserabl" , even in terms of their own /rules.0 n their @@ $a$er, for e=am$le, they said they /focused on tem$eraturechange and ignored other climatic changes, such as $reci$itation .0 Jet the Pounds et al. study, which was conducted in highland forests at 3onteverde

!osta )ica, dealt with %iological changes that, in the authors7 own words, were /all associated with $atterns of dry#season mist freMuency.0 )oot et al. a$$arently "ustified the %ending of theircaused#%y#tem$erature#change e=clusivity rule on the %asis of Pounds et al.7s claim that the $atternsof dry#season mist freMuency they identified were /negatively correlated with sea surfacetem$eratures in the eMuatorial Pacific0 and were therefore ultimately caused %y a warming of that region of the glo%e. As everyone &nows, however 6 or should &now

6 correlation &oes not prove causationT and, in fact, it was su%seMuently demonstrated %y +awton et al. -@@:4 that the changes in dry#seasonmist freMuency that Pounds et al. claimed were due to /the increase in air tem$eratures that followed a ste$#li&e warming of tro$ical oceans in :;?0 were in reality caused %y u$wind deforestation of ad"acentlowlands that increased convective and orogra$hic cloud %ases, which resulted in a reduced moisturesu$$ly to Pounds et al.7s study area.

Studies $rove warming leads to an increase in %io diversity, not e=tinction.dso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories and



lectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4'he authors documented changes in the northern %oundaries of R %utterfly s$ecies over the $ast century in northern Euro$e

as well as concomitant changes in the southern %oundaries of <@ %utterfly s$ecies in southern Euro$e and northern Africa, over which $eriod of time the ma"ority of thestudied region warmed %y a%out @.2! . As to the range shifts they o%served, the authors re$ort that /nearly all northwardshifts involved e=tensions at the northern %oundary with the southern %oundary remaining sta%le.0This fin&in' is a &irect refutation of the C3 -in&uce& 'lobal warmin' eBtinction

h"pothesis, in that it demonstrates that a significant increase in tem$erature allowed %utterflies to e=$and theirnorthern %oundaries northward %ut did not force them to move their southern %oundaries northwardndeed, it is a strong vindication of our hy$othesis, i.e., that heat#limited s$ecies7 %oundaries will not change in a region of %othincreasing tem$erature and atmos$heric !5 concentration. ot only is this %utterfly %ehavior not %ad, as )oot et al. would have the world %elieve, it is good

'he authors note, for e=am$le, that %ecause of their sta%le southern %oundaries and the northward movement of their northern %oundaries, /most s$ecies effectively e=$anded the si>e of their range,0 which has hel$ed to $rotect them against the

$ossi%ility of e=tinction. 'he resultant range overla$$ing has also increased regional %iodiversity %y increasingregional %utterfly s$ecies richness, which is $recisely what we have $redicted should occur in suchsituations.



A&aptation

S$ecies are ada$ting# they are moving away from e=tinction.dso, dso and dso -Sherwood, !raig and 9eith, 9eith, ice Pres. !tr Study !5 and Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in8otany q ASU, won several to$ awards while instructing students in %iological and %otanical la%oratories andlectures at ASU, and !raig, !hrmn 8rd of !tr for Study !5 Q Glo%al !hange, Ph.*. in Geog. ASU, /'heS$ector of S$ecies E=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO0, 3arshal nstitute,htt$(CCwww.marshall.orgC$dfCmaterialsC:R@.$dfCCumich#m$4L. *iscussion of )eal#World 5%servations Are significant im$acts of glo%al warming /already discerna%le in animal and $lant $o$ulations,0 as )oot et al. claimO s climate change /already affecting living systems,0 as Parmesan and Johe

contendO 'he answer to %oth of these Muestions in many %ut not all of the cases they cite is a definite yes. 3uch of the %ios$here has indeed res$onded to the glo%al warming of the $ast century and a half that has transformed what we have come to call the +ittle ce Age into what can now %e called the 3odern Warm Period. 8ut it has not 6 we re$ea

not 6 %rought us to the verge of %ios$heric disintegration, as the world7s climate alarmists would haveeveryone %elieve. n fact, it has done "ust the o$$osite, aided in no small $art %y the concomitant rise inthe air7s !5 content. 'o su%stantiate this fact, ironically, we need loo& no further than to the very $a$ers that are used %y )oot et al. and Parmesan and Johe to suggest, as )oot hasclaimed, that /we7re sitting at the edge of a mass e=tinction.0 And when we do, we find that the studies they cite do notim$ly anything of the &ind. t is true that some s$ecies of $lants and animals have indeed moved $oleward and u$ward inres$onse to :;th and @th century warmingT %ut they have not %een forced to do so. 'he $oleward and u$ward e=tensions of the cold#limite

%oundaries of these s$ecies7 ranges have %een o$$ortunistic movements, movements that have ena%led them to inha%itregions that $reviously were too cold for them . 8ut where it has %een $redicted that s$ecies would either %e com$elled to move towards cooler regions or suffer death, i.e., at the

heat#limited %oundaries of their ranges, they have in many instances, if not most instances, succum%ed to neither alternative. As a result, instead of suffering range contractions, indicative of advancement towards e=tinction, these

s$ecies have e=$erienced range e=$ansions, indicative of a $ro$ensity to avoid e=tinction. We note also, with res$ect t

latitudinal movements, that it is not necessary for the heat#limited %oundary of a s$ecies7 range to remain totally stationary for the !5# induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis to %e found null and void. f the heatlimited %oundary merely moves slower than the cold#limited %oundary in res$onse to an increase intem$erature, a range e=$ansion will occur that ma&es e=tinction even less li&ely than it was %efore the warming occurred. What is more, the via%ility of s$ecies in a warming world can %e maintained %y rela=ing even this conditionT for if a s$ecies7 heat#limited %oundary moves at the same s$eed as its cold#limited

%oundary, its range si>e will remain fairly constant -de$ending u$on local geogra$hical constraints, of course4, which also $recludes the $ossi%ility of e=tinction. n fact, if the cold#limited and heat#limited %oundaries of a s$ecies7 range are widelyse$arated, as in the case of the %utterfly studied %y Parmesan -:;;4, even if the h eat#limited %oundary were to move faster than the cold#limited %oundary, the large tem$erature difference %etween the two %oundaries would $revent the heat#

limited %oundary from ever merging with the cold#limited %oundary for the degree of warming that would %e li&ely to occur in the real world. Hence, there is currently not the slightest shredof evidence that what is /already discerna%le in animal and $lant $o$ulation s,0 in the words of )oot et al., and /alreadyaffecting living systems,0 in the words of Parmesan and Johe, $ortends the eminent or even far#distant e=tinction of a singles$ecies of $lant or animal.

Plants wont go e=tinct# they will ada$t to any tem$erature changes+ingle < -!hristo$her, $rofessor of economics at Universidad Francisco 3arroMuin and a Scholar at the !entrefor !ivil society in ew *elhi, /Higher !5, 3ore Glo%al Warming, and +ess E=tinction0, Freeman,htt$(CCwww.thefreemanonline.orgCfeaturedChigher#co#more#glo%al#warming#and#less#e=tinctionCCCumich#m$4t is widely %elieved that humans e=ert a harmful im$act on the natural environment , es$ecially when it comes to releasin

greenhouse gases into the atmos$here. And so there is some alarm that the amount of car%on dio=ide -!54 in the atmos$here has risen %y RB@ $ercent in the last @@ years. 5ne view$oint has %ecome&nown as the /!5#induced glo%al warming e=tinction hy$othesis, 0 which $ro"ects greater e=tinctionof s$ecies. 'he com%ination of glo%al warming and an increase in atmos$heric !5 will su$$osedlycause $lants and animals that cannot esca$e the stress from rising tem$eratures to %ecome e=tinct.

anuary a study $u%lished in the "ournal ature $ro"ected that :RB? $ercent of s$ecies will %ecome e=tinct %y the middle of the century at current rates of glo%al warming. 'he study came under immediate criticism. An earlier e=amination o

this hy$othesis was conducted %y the 3arshall nstitute in $artnershi$ with the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. 'he study, /'he S$ecter of S$eciesE=tinction( Will Glo%al Warming *ecimate Earth7s 8ios$hereO,0 concluded that claims of masse=tinctions arising out of climate change are unsu$$orted %y facts.: 'he e=tinction hy$othesis ignored the fact that C3enrichment ten&s to offset the ne'ative effects of risin' temperatures on ve'etation/ 'h

findings contradict claims that manmade climate change can cause significant increases in the rate of s$ecies e=tinction. First, they $oint out that there is a lac& of definitive &nowledge on how many s$ecies e=ist and what the rate of natural

e=tinction might %e. Further, it is not &nown how many s$ecies are %ecoming e=tinct %ecause of other human ornonhuman causes. f we acce$t the worst#case scenario that the earth is getting warmer and !5concentrations are increasing, most s$ecies would res$ond %y ada$ting, acclimati>ing, or migratingn the case of $lant life, increasing the amount of !5 will induce changes that ma&e them bettera&apte& to warmer con&itions. ndeed, more !5 allows them to grow %etter at almost all tem$eratures, es$ecially at higher tem$eratures. And so, elevated !5content im$roves the a%ility of $lants to resist heat stress and also raises the o$timum tem$eraturefor growth. n other words, a rise in atmos$heric tem$erature com%ined with a higher !5 concentrationma&es it easier for $lants to ada$t. Since the range of ada$tation of most $lants will li&ely e=$and if the $lanet warms, e=tinctions will %ecome less li&ely than they are at $resent. Additional evidenc

of this was re$orted in Science. According to climatic and satellite data gathered since :;2, glo%al $lant $roductivity has increased %y $ercent with the largest gains in tro$ical ecosystems. Part of the rise in $lant growth was due to diminished

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/higher-co2-more-global-warming-and-less-extinction///umich-mp






cloud cover leading to a rise in solar radiation in the tro$ics. Since rising $lant $roductivity suc&s in car%on dio=ide from theatmos$here, /car%on sin&s,0 such as large forested areas, can offset the $roduction of rising car%ongases. 'his means that increased concentrations of !5 are more li&ely to cause tem$eratures to godown rather than go u$. Animals can %e e=$ected to react similarly to simultaneous increases in atmos$heric tem$erature and !5 concentration %y migrating toward the $oles or higher altitudes. 8y increasin

the %oundaries of their ranges, most s$ecies will increase the $ro%a%ility of survival. f we succeed in curtailing manmade !5 emissions, our actionsmight actually im$ose a greater challenge to life forms in the %ios$here. 'his is %ecause a sudden sto$in the increase of !5 content in the air would %loc& the $hysiological transformation of $lants that$rovides them with $rotection against heat stress.

Warming is too slow# future generations could fi= it.9ate :: -!limatologist, /E=tinction and !limate0 Fe% :?, !limatesight,htt$(CCclimatesight.orgC@::C@C:?Ce=tinction#and#climateCCCumich#m$4

How %ad will it getO 5nly time, and our decisions, will tell. A significant num%er of the world7s s$ecies will $ro%a%ly %ecomee=tinct. t7s conceiva%le that we could cause ano=ia in the oceans, if we are %oth irres$onsi%le andunluc&y. t wouldn7t %e too hard to melt most of the world7s ice, committing ourselves to an eventualsea level rise in the tens of metres. These lon'-ran'e conse+uences woul& take centuries to&evelop, so none of us has to worry a%out e=$eriencing them. nstead, they would fall to those who comeafter us, who would have had no $art in causing B and failing to solve B the $ro%lem.



Irreversible )ow

E=tinction inevita%le# we cant sto$ warming, we can only %uy us time.Futurism :@ -Futurism ow( Political and Environmental ews, /Human E=tinction Possi%le in :@@ Jears,Says Scientist0, htt$(CCwww.futurismnow.comCO$R<?CCumich#m$4*oomsday will %e decided in @:<, not @:, according to an Australian scientist who says that if we &ee$ doing what we7re going, *rill#8a%y#*rilling and having lots of %a%ies, it7s the end of the human racein a%out :@@ years. Seriously, wonder if we will last that long. He also claims that attem$ts to sto$ climate change will not sto$ our e=tinction,only %uy us time. Well he doesn7t have to worry a%out that, %ecause the United States isn7t going to do anything a%out climate change, than&s to our o%structionist right#wing $oliticians. Some of them are still %usy

denying climate change, li&e they deny evolution, and claim that dinosaurs lived with $eo$le. n other words, they suffer from serious science#%ac&wardness, and the sheer force of it "ust might lead to our demise. Here7s to /+ivin7 la ida +oca

while we still can. From the *aily 3ail( As the scientist who hel$ed eradicate small$o= he certainly &now a thing or two a%out e=tinction. And now Professor Fran& Fenner, emeritus $rofessor of micro%iology at the Australian ational

University, has $redicted that the human race will %e e=tinct within the ne=t :@@ years. He has claimed that the human race will %e una%le to survive a $o$ulation e=$losion and ]un%ridled consum$tion.7 Fenner told 'he Australian news$a$er that ]homo sa$iens will %ecome e=tinct, $erha$s within :@@ years.7 ]A lot ofother animals will, too,7 he added. ]t7s an irreversi%le situation. thin& it7s too late . try not to e=$ress that %ecause $eo$le are trying to d

something, %ut they &ee$ $utting it off.7 Since humans entered an unofficial scientific $eriod &nown as the Anthro$ocene B the time since industrialisation B we have had an effect on the $lanet that rivals any ice age or comet im$act, he said.Fenner, ;R, has won awards for his wor& in hel$ing eradicate the variola virus that causes small$o= and has written or co#written %oo&s. He announced the eradication of the disease to the World Health Assem%ly in :;2@ and it is stillregarded as one of the World Health 5rganisation7s greatest achievements He was also heavily involved in hel$ing to control Australia7s my=omatosis $ro%lem in ra%%its. +ast year official U figures estimated that the world7s $o$ulation is

currently .2 %illion. t is $redicted to e=ceed seven %illion %y the end of @::. Fenner %lames the onset of climate change for the human race7s imminent demise. He said( ] We7ll undergo the same fate asthe $eo$le on Easter sland. ]!limate change is "ust at the very %eginning. 8ut we7re seeing remar&a%lechanges in the weather already.7 ]'he A%origines showed that without science and the $roduction ofcar%on dio=ide and glo%al warming, they could survive for <@,@@@ or R@,@@@ years. ]8ut the worldcan7t. 'he human s$ecies is li&ely to go the same way as many of the s$ecies that we7ve seendisa$$ear.7 )etired $rofessor Ste$hen 8oyden, a colleague of Professor Fenner, said that while there was dee$ $essimism among some ecologists, others had a more o$timistic view. 5cean trash ]Fran& may well %e right, %ut

some of us still har%or the ho$e that there will come a%out an awareness of the situation and, as a result the revolutionary changes necessary to achieve ecological sustaina%ility.7 Simon )oss, the vice#chairman of the 5$timum Po$ulation 'rust, said( ]3an&ind is facing real challenges including climatechange, loss of %io#diversity and un$recedented growth in $o$ulation.7 Professor Fenner7s chilling $rediction echoes recent comments %y Princ

!harles who last wee& warned of ]monumental $ro%lems7 if the world7s $o$ulation continues to grow at such a ra$id $ace. And it comes after Professor icholas 8oyle of !am%ridge University said that a ]*oomsday7 moment will ta&e $lace in@:< B and will determine whether the :st century is full of violence and $overty or will %e $eaceful and $ros$erous.[ n the last R@@ years there has %een a cataclysmic ]Great Event7 of international significance at the start of each century, he

claimed. n @@ another esteemed academic, Professor ames +oveloc&, warned that the world7s $o$ulation may sin& as low as R@@million over the ne=t century due to glo%al warming. 6e claime& that an" attempts to tackleclimate chan'e will not be able to solve the problem% merel" bu" us time/ !ue )ic&y 3artin . . . . . )evolutionar

changesO ot e=ce$t %y some outside force. Governments can7t achieve /revolutionary changes0 within themselves. !a$italism and consum$tion are too lauded and too ingrained. And don7t loo& to our lawma&ers. 'he U.S. !ongress isseemingly inca$a%le of $assing a law that $uts a ta= or $rice on car%on that is adeMuate to ma&e the Muic& differences that are needed. &now that some $eo$le still hold out ho$e that this can ha$$en, %ut don7t. For the record, Professo

ovelock &oes not believe that climate chan'e will cause human eBtinction% notcompletel"/ ,ut it will 'reatl" re&uce the her&/ 3y %iggest ho$e is that these elderly scientists are suffering from some form of de$ressive dementia on thi

to$ic, %ut $rivately, thin& they are right and it may %e too late to sto$ climate change. 'his ma&es me very, very sad for all the $eo$le on the $lanet who are currently under the age of five

5f course ca$italism consum$tion. 3ore ca$italism, more %usiness and cor$oration friendly

as$ects of our cultures, and the sooner we are all toast.

We have hit the ti$$ing $oint# warming is irreversi%le.Scotsman -nternational news source, /Glo%al Warming( s it too late to save our $lanetO0, anuary :?,htt$(CCliving.scotsman.comCinde=.cfmOid?@@@CCumich#m$4

G+58A+ warming is irreversi%le and %illions of $eo$le will die over the ne=t century , one of the worlds leading climate chang

scientists claimed yesterday. Professor ames +oveloc& , the scientist who develo$ed the Gaia $rinci$le -that Earth is a self#regulating, interconnected system4, claimed that %y the year :@@the only $lace where humans will %e a%le to survive will %e the Arctic . n a forthcoming %oo&, 'he )evenge of Gaia, +oveloc& warns that attem$ts to reduce levels of greenhouse gases in the atmos$here may already %e too late. I5u

$lanet has &e$t itself healthy and fit for life, "ust li&e an animal does, for most of the more than three %illion years of its e=istence,I he writes. I t was ill luc& that we started $olluting at atime when the sun was too hot for comfort. We have given Gaia a fever and soon her condition will

worsen to a state li&e a coma . She has %een there %efore and recovered, %ut it too& more than :@@,@@@ years.I +oveloc& , 2, who now lives in !ornwall, rec&onstem$eratures will rise dramatically over the ne=t :@@ years( IWe are res$onsi%le and will suffer theconseMuences( as the century $rogresses the tem$erature will rise eight degrees centigrade intem$erate regions and five degrees in the tro$ics. I3uch of the tro$ical land mass will %ecome scru%and desertT %efore this century is over %illions of us will die and the few %reeding $airs that survive will %e in the Arctic, where the climate remains tolera%le.I 'he scientist says he has %een loathe to write such a de$ressing %oo&( Im usually a cheerful sod, so m

not ha$$y a%out writing doom %oo&s. 8ut dont see any easy way out.I He %elieves $ollution in the northern hemis$here has actually hel$edreduce glo%al warming %y reflecting sunlight. However Ithis glo%al dimming is transient and coulddisa$$ear in a few days li&e the smo&e that it is, leaving us fully e=$osed to the heat of the glo%algreenhouseI. IWe are in a fools climate, accidentally &e$t cool %y smo&e,I he says. !limate#change scientists have %een warning a%out the rise i

tem$eratures reaching a Iti$$ing $ointI when car%on and methane loc&ed u$ in the Ama>on rainforest and Arctic ice would %e released into the atmos$here as the climate %ecomes drier and warmer. +oveloc& says( IWe will do

http://living.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=76062006

http://living.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=76062006



our %est to survive, %ut, sadly, cant see the US or the emerging economies of !hina and ndia cutting %ac& in time andthey are the main source of emissions. 'he worst will ha$$en and survivors will have to ada$t to a hellof a climate.I



Co3

)o 'reenhouse effect2tippin' point:rose 12(9, @:: !ornelia 3rose is a new US citi>en and tea $arty activist who is $assionate a%out $romoting li%erty /s car%on dio=ide a$ollutantO What you need to &now a%out !50 htt$(CCwww.deneen%orelli.comCcommentariesCis#car%on#dio=ide#a#$ollutant#what#you#need#to#&now#a%out#coC

*oes more car%on dio=ide in the atmos$here lead to a runaway greenhouse effect or ti$$ing $ointO o, it does notlead to a runaway greenhouse effect. WhyO 8ecause there is only so much infrared radiation to %e a%sor%ed. 'homas .

elson $uts it this way in /!old Facts on Glo%al Warming0( t is generally acce$ted that the concentration of car%on dio=ide in

the atmos$here is already high enough to a%sor% virtually all the infrared radiation in the main car%on dio=idea%sor$tion %ands over a distance of less than one &m. 'hus, even if the atmos$here were heavily laden withcar%on dio=ide, it would still only cause an incremental increase in the amount of infrared a%sor$tion overcurrent levels. 'his is why in Earth7s $ast there have %een times with levels of car%on dio=ide as high as @@@ $$mv -com$ared to today7s ;:

$$mv4. 'here was no runaway greenhouse effect, no ti$$ing $oint. n fact, the highest levels of atmos$heric !5occurred during $eriods of glaciation.

6umans make less than 5W of C3:rose 12(9, @:: !ornelia 3rose is a new US citi>en and tea $arty activist who is $assionate a%out $romoting li%erty /s car%on dio=ide a$ollutantO What you need to &now a%out !50 htt$(CCwww.deneen%orelli.comCcommentariesCis#car%on#dio=ide#a#$ollutant#what#you#need#to#&now#a%out#coC

'he amount of car%on dio=ide that is $roduced %y human industrial $roduction is very small. t is estimated ataround N. 'he overwhelming amount of atmos$heric car%on dio=ide is released %y nature( the oceans, soils, volcanoes

and the %ios$here. 5ceans, soils and $lants already a%sor% at least half of the human !5 emissions andhuman emissions are dwarfed %y the %alanced natural system. For e=am$le, termite methane emissions are @times more $otent than human !5 emissions, and massive volcanic eru$tions -e.g. Pinatu%o4 emit the eMuivalentof a year7s human !5 emissions in a few days. -an Plimer4

Holcanoes create climate chan'e0effre" 12(52(( B teacher with a %ac&ground in !limate !hange Parado= B /!urrent !5 +evels Are ot 5f Anthro$ogenic 5rigins0 W)''E

8J !5+E EFF)EJ, GUES' P5S' ̂ UE : @:: htt$(CCwww.climatechangedis$atch.comChomeC;:@R#climate#change#$arado=#current#co#levels#are#not#of#anthro$ogenic#origins

'he increase in atmos$heric !5 is attri%uted only slightly to anthro$ogenic emissions -a%out N or a%out : $$ma4

with the most $redominate factor %eing volcanic venting. t all ties together and is confirmed with the recent thrust event in the

ndian 5cean, a$an earthMua&es, Pa&istan earthMua&es, and celand volcanic eru$tions and earthMua&e activity to name only a few. olcanicactivity has increased in the last R@@ years. 'here are two com$onents of volcanoes that include venting and eru$tions. enting is

venting of gasses, including !5. Eru$tions include !5 and other gasses along with ash. 'he general rule is that

eru$tions release gasses and ash, which cause tem$eratures to dro$. olcanic activity, including increased venting %efore andafter eru$tions %egan to rise in a%out ;< A*, and much more activity has occurred since a%out the early tomid :2@@7s B "ust %efore the industrial revolution. 'his is the year that it is $resented that humans attri%uted to the increase of atmos$heric !o

levels, %ut volcanic activity is the source of !5 atmos$heric level rise. olcanic activity also attri%utes to tectonic activity B anincrease in earth Mua&e freMuency and severity, which have also increased recently.

C3 &oesnt link to warmin' – their fin&in's are biase& b" environmental a'encies:rose 12(9, @:: !ornelia 3rose is a new US citi>en and tea $arty activist who is $assionate a%out $romoting li%erty /s car%on dio=ide a$ollutantO What you need to &now a%out !50 htt$(CCwww.deneen%orelli.comCcommentariesCis#car%on#dio=ide#a#$ollutant#what#you#need#to#&now#a%out#coC

Jes, contrary to the $redictions of glo%al warming $rotagonists glo%al tem$erature has somewhat decreased since:;;2. !ar%on dio=ide levels, on the other hand, continue to rise. 'hese two facts are irreconcila%le with the claim that !5 is the $rimary

cause of increases in atmos$heric tem$erature. According to the EPA, the endangerment and $ollution findings /are %ased on careful consideration of

the full weight of scientific evidence.0 !learly, this is not the case. !5 at its current level is not a $ollutant since it does not causeinsta%ility, disorder, harm or discomfort to the ecosystem. or does !5 e=ceed natural levels. 'he EPA7s

endangerment findings are $olitically motivated. 'hey are ins$ired %y $oliticians willing to use $seudo#scientificclaims in order to reach ideologically motivated goals.

C3 is onl" /51W of climate chan'e an& natural checks mean it &oesnt cause warmin'0effre" 723(2(( – teacher with a %ac&ground in engineering /'he Glo%al WarmingC!limate !hange Parado= # Why !5 has not, is not, nor willnot %e an issue0 W)''E 8J !5+E EFF)EJ, GUES' P5S' ̂ 3AJ : @:: htt$(CCwww.climatechangedis$atch.comChomeC;@:#the#glo%al# warmingclimate#change#$arado=#why#co#has#not#is#not#nor#will#not#%e#an#issue

A%ove and %eyond the a%ility for Earth to deal with atmos$heric !5 through $hotosynthesis and other means,there is more solar radiation -heat dissi$ated into s$ace4 through water va$or which is ?2 to 2N of climate influence, when



tem$eratures rise. !5 is only currently @.@N climatic influential, which translates into a rise of only @.@R *egree ! in

average mean tem$erature if atmos$heric !5 levels are more than dou%led to 2@@ PP3A, and the influence would only %e e=$eriencedat night. Earth has natural chec&s and %alances for regulating atmos$heric !5 levels and climate. Since :trillion tons of atmos$heric !5 is %eing $resented to change climate average mean tem$eratures %y : degree!, then the average mean tem$eratures should rise : degree ! every year %ut does not, due to the fact that Earth isa%le to deal with much more than the : trillion tons of annual anthro$ogenic and natural !5 emissions.

<lants thrive with C3:rose 12(9, @:: !ornelia 3rose is a new US citi>en and tea $arty activist who is $assionate a%out $romoting li%erty /s car%on dio=ide a

$ollutantO What you need to &now a%out !50 htt$(CCwww.deneen%orelli.comCcommentariesCis#car%on#dio=ide#a#$ollutant#what#you#need#to#&now#a%out#coC

Plants thrive at high levels of !5. 'hey flourish when levels of car%on dio=ide are significantly higher thantoday 7s ;: $$mv. 'his is why the level of car%on dio=ide in commercial greenhouses is often tri$led to a%out :@@@

$$mv. At this level of !5 $lants grow significantly faster. Perha$s you have heard someone say that it is good for your $lants when

you tal& to them( they love the !5 you e=hale. *uring the history of the $lanet, !5 levels have continuously fluctuated. *uring $eriods of high!5 in the air, life underwent massive e=$ansion and diversification, whereas in $eriods of low !5, li&e today,$lant life is not as energeticZ Early in the Earth7s history, the !5 content of air was tens to hundreds of timeshigher than today and, over time, this !5 has %een stored as car%on com$ounds in roc&s, oil, gas, coal andcar%onate roc&s. -an Plimer4

<lants use of C3 causes it to c"cle

0effre" 723(2(( – teacher with a %ac&ground in engineering /'he Glo%al WarmingC!limate !hange Parado= # Why !5 has not, is not, nor willnot %e an issue0 W)''E 8J !5+E EFF)EJ, GUES' P5S' ̂ 3AJ : @:: htt$(CCwww.climatechangedis$atch.comChomeC;@:#the#glo%al# warmingclimate#change#$arado=#why#co#has#not#is#not#nor#will#not#%e#an#issue

!5 and tem$eratures %ecame cyclical due to the division of the Atlantic and Pacific 5ceans, due to the @@ to <@@ year lagin !5 rise after the tem$erature rises along with the other astro factors. With higher levels of atmos$heric !5,flora stromatolite and algae $o$ulations rise a%undantly . Farmers are e=$eriencing the highest cro$ yield $er acre

than ever in thousands of years of recorded history, $artly due to farming techniMues and fertili>er technologies, %ut more $redominantly due tohigher atmos$heric !5 levels. !5 then falls %elow the @@ Parts Per 3illion Atmos$here -PP3A4 threshold

%ecause when !5 levels are a%ove the @@ PP3A, along with other factors, $hotosynthesis life thrives morea%undantly, causing the a%sor$tion rate of !5 to e=ceed the !5 emission rate. 'hen, at or slightly %elow @@ PP3A,

growth of life that uses $hotosynthesis is stifled. When !5 levels are at :2@ PP3A $hotosynthesis flora %egin to res$ire

-e=hale4 !5, and at levels of :R@ PP3A all $hotosynthesis flora will die, including food cro$s that rely on$hotosynthesis. With a reduction in growth of $hotosynthesis life due to lower atmos$heric !5 levels -at or %elow

@@ PP3A4, atmos$heric !5 levels are a%le to rise again. As atmos$heric !5 levels rise, the $hotosynthesisorganisms thrive and over $o$ulate, eventually causing atmos$heric !5 levels to dro$ to the levels thatatmos$heric !5 cannot su$$ort the $hotosynthesis organisms -%elow the @@ PP3A threshold4, causing an amount of$hotosynthesis organisms to stifle growth, allowing atmos$heric !5 levels to rise again . A lag in growth and reduction

of $hotosynthetic life is a $ro%a%le factor for the rise and fall of atmos$heric !5 levels. f growth and reduction were near the rise and fall of !5

emissions, then atmos$heric !5 levels would remain near constant levels. 'his is a mechanism for why the atmos$heric !5levels rise and fall cyclically, along with Earths or%it, gyrosco$ic $rogression of Earth7s rotation, Solar activity,ocean currents, and volcanic activity.



cean Aci&ification

Carbon 4missions boost cean rowth – Tests &isprove cean Aci&ification

:i&&leton% ! B Geoscientist and 8S in Earth Sciences -::C:C@;, *ave 3iddleton, *e%un& House,/5cean AcidificationZ Another ail in a un& Science !offin,0htt$(CCde%un&house.word$ress.comC@@;C::C:Cocean#acidification#another#nail#in#a#"un&#science#coffinC4n other wordsZ Anthro$ogenic !5 emissions hel$ feed the critters that %uild coral reefs. *issolved norganic!ar%on -!5, %icar%onate, etc.4 are consumed %y shell %uilding organisms to %uild shells -%icar%onate4 and

$hotosynthesis in the $hotic >one -!54. *! #onstitute a+out -. o& the #ar+on in the o#eans. *issolved5rganic !ar%on -non#colloidal %its of car%ohydrates, $roteins, etc.4 are the mostly the $roduct of$hotosynthesis. *5! can come from land or, marine sources. 'his is consumed %y s$onges which secrete foodfor reef %uilding organisms. 8oth *! and *5! are $art of the car%on cycle. Anthro$ogenic car%on emissions-$rimarily !54 constitute a%out N of the Earth7s car%on %udget - GtCyr4. 3ore !5 in the atmos$hereleads to something called /!5 fertili>ation.0 n an enriched !5 environment, most $lants end to grow more.'he fatal flaw of the infamous /Hoc&ey Stic&0 chart was in 3ann7s misinter$retation of 8ristlecone Pine treering chronologies as a $ro=y for tem$eratureT when in fact the tree ring growth was actually indicating !5fertili>ation as in this e=am$le from Gree& fir treesEnriched atmos$heric !5 /feeds0 reefs in two ways( :4Enhanced $hotosynthesis for the sym%iotic algaeT and 4 3ore *5! to feed the s$onges that also feed reef

%uilders as the result of enhanced $hotosynthesis of land and marine vegetation. !oral reefs can only grow inthe $hotic >one of the oceans %ecause >oo=anthellae algae use sunlight, !5, calcium andCor magnesium toma&e limestone. 'he calcification rate of Flinders )eef has increased along with atmos$heric !5concentrations since :?@@ Flinders )eef calcification rate has increased along with atmos$heric !5 since:?@@. As the atmos$heric !5 concentration has grown since the :?@@s coral reef e=tension rates have alsotrended u$wards. 'his is contrary to the theory that increased atmos$heric !5 should reduce the calciumcar%onate saturation in the oceans, thus reducing reef calcification. t7s a similar enigma to the calcificationrates of coccoliths and otoliths. n all three cases, the theory or model says that increasing atmos$heric !5

will ma&e the oceans less %asic %y increasing the concentration of H ions and reducing calcium car%onatesaturation. 'his is su$$osed to reduce the calcification rates of car%onate shell#%uilding organisms. When, infact, the o$$osite is occurring in nature with reefs and coccoliths B !alcification rates are generally increasing.

And in em$irical e=$eriments under la%oratory conditions, otoliths grew -rather than shran&4 when su%"ectedto high levels of simulated atmos$heric !5. n the cases of reefs and coccoliths, one answer is that therelatively minor increase in atmos$heric !5 over the last cou$le of hundred years has enhanced$hotosynthesis more than it has ham$ered marine car%onate geochemistry. However, the otoliths -fish ear

%ones4 shouldn7t really %enefit from enhanced $hoto#res$iration/ he &a#t that otoliths grew rather thanshrank when su+/e#ted to high 01 le*els is a retty good indi#ation that the rimary theory o& o#eana#idi&i#ation has +een tested and &alsi&ied . n the field of geology, when we falsify a hy$othesis or a theory, wetrend to start loo&ing for a new hy$othesis or theory. 'hat7s why we rely very heavily on !ham%erlain7s 3ethodof 3ulti$le Wor&ing Hy$otheses. n the "un& science of ocean acidification and anthro$ogenic glo%al warming,it a$$ears that the $rocess is to sim$ly discard any data that deviate from the ruling theory.

)atural a&aptation an& forces &isprove cean Aci&ification Impacts

Anthon"% 9 B *r. . Floor Anthoni the *irector of Sea Friends -@@?, *r Floor Anthoni, Seafriends,htt$(CCwww.seafriends.org.n>CissuesCglo%alCacid.htm1conclusion !S4

t is an im$ortant message that want you to ta&e home and &ee$ in the %ac& of your mind whenever you read

a%out marine science or $lanet science. t is a message for scientists too. *ead $lanet thin&ing( mostoceanogra$hers, $hysicists, chemists treat the $lanet as a dead $lanet, where every force, every $rocess can %edescri%ed and ca$tured in an eMuation, and then simulated %y a com$uter. 8ut life frustrates every attem$t, asit corru$ts eMuations, while also ada$ting to changing circumstances. 5f all these, the sea is the worst with itsunimagina%le scale, com$le=ity and influence. We may never %e a%le to unravel the secrets of the sea. 5$ening

with these thoughts, the -%io4chemistry of the sea is so com$licated and un&nown that the scare for acidicoceans is entirely un"ustified. t is true that humans should act from a $osition of humility and $rudence,ad"usting to nature while never e=$loiting more than @N of the environment %ut we have gone far over thatlimit. 'oday nature is ad"usting to us and we cannot change that without a much smaller human $o$ulationand much less waste -!5 is $art of human waste4. Well, that is not going to ha$$en. So we have to acce$t thatnature is now changing. An im$ortant $art of that is an increase of the life#%ringing gas car%ondio=ide. With

http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm#conclusion

http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm#conclusion



higher !5 levels, $lants will $roduce more. Ho$efully the world will %ecome warmer too, and all this is welcome to the starving %illions. As oceans %ecome more acidic, they will %ecome more $roductive too,ad"usting to the new scenario. 'here will %e no ti$$ing $oints %ut there could %e some une=$ected andunforeseen sur$rises. 'he world has %een changing and ada$ting to ma"or changes since it came out of the lastice age, and the changes caused %y fossil fuel will %e relatively small. As far as the science of ocean acidificationgoes, there are some ma"or errors and conflicts, and the amount of missing &nowledge is much larger than

what we &now. Scientists have uncritically acce$ted the findings of the P!! with critically low $re#industriallevels of !5, %ut has anyone tried to grow $lants and seedlings at :2@$$mv !5O

cean Aci&ification has no Impact% :"ria& of Reasons:onckton% (#'he )ight Honoura%le 'he iscount 3onc&ton of 8renchley, *e$uty +eader of the U9nde$endence Party, Served as the the secretary for the !entre for Policy Studies7 economic, forward strategy,health and em$loyment study grou$s -:CRC:@, !hristo$her Walter 3onc&ton, rd iscount 3onc&ton of8renchley, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!* 'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B Aew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources *efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

5ur harmless emissions of trifling Muantities of car%on dio=ide cannot $ossi%ly acidify the oceans. Pa$er after$a$er after learned $a$er in the $eer#reviewed literature ma&es that Muite $lain. dso cites some :R@ scientificsources, nearly all of them $roviding hard evidence, %y measurement and e=$eriment, that there is no %asis for

imagining that we can acidify the oceans to any e=tent large enough to %e measured even %y the most sensitiveinstruments. And, as )ichard Feynman used to say, no matter how elegant your theory, no matter how smart

you are, if e=$eriment $roves you wrong then you need another theory. Why can7t rising atmos$heric !5acidify the oceansO First, %ecause it has not done so %efore. *uring the !am%rian era, RR@ million years ago,there was @ times as much !5 in the atmos$here as there is today( yet that is when the calcite corals firstachieved algal sym%iosis. *uring the urassic era, :?R million years ago, there was again @ times as much !5as there is today( yet that is when the delicate aragonite corals first came into %eing. Secondly, oceanacidification, as a notion, suffers from the same $ro%lem of scale as /glo%al warming0. ust as the dou%ling of!5 concentration e=$ected this century will scarcely change glo%al mean surface tem$erature %ecause there isso little !5 in the atmos$here in the first $lace, so it will scarcely change the acid#%ase %alance of the ocean,

%ecause there is already ?@ times as much !5 in solution in the oceans as there is in the atmos$here. Even ifall of the additional !5 we emit were to end u$ not in the atmos$here -where it might in theory cause a very

little warming4 %ut in the ocean -where it would cause none4, the Muantity of !5 in the oceans would rise %ylittle more than :N, a trivial and entirely harmless change. 'hirdly, to imagine that !5 causes /oceanacidification0 is to ignore the elementary chemistry of %icar%onate ions. Kuantitatively, !5 is only theseventh#largest of the su%stances in the oceans that could in theory alter the acid#%ase %alance, so that in anyevent its effect on that %alance would %e minuscule. Kualitatively, however, !5 is different from all the othersu%stances in that it acts as the %uffering mechanism for all of them, so that it does not itself alter the acid#%ase

%alance of the oceans at all. Fourthly, as Professor an Plimer $oints out in his e=cellent %oo& Heaven andEarth -Kuartet, +ondon, @@;4, the oceans slosh around over vast acreages of roc&, and roc&s are $ronouncedlyal&aline. Seen in a geological $ers$ective, therefore, acidification of the oceans is im$ossi%le.

)o harm from C3 or Aci&ification – :a" be ,eneficial

I&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Scienceand Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

'he ocean chemistry as$ect of this theory is rather straightforwardT %ut it is not as solid as model $ro"ections orthe )*! ma&e it out to %e. n another evaluation of the conseMuences of atmos$heric !5 enrichment forseawater acidity, for e=am$le, +oaiciga -@@4 found that a dou%ling of !5 from 2@ to ?@ $$m wouldincrease seawater acidity %y lowering its $H %y only @.:; unit. 'hus, +oaiciga concluded that on a glo%al scaleand over the time scale considered -hundreds of years4, there should not %e /accentuated changes in seawater



acidity0 as a result of $ro"ected increases in the air7s !5 concentration. n addition, with more !5 in the air,additional weathering of terrestrial car%onates is li&ely to occur, which would increase delivery of !a to theoceans and $artly com$ensate for the !5#induced decrease in oceanic calcium car%onate saturation state-)iding, :;;4. And as with all $henomena involving li*ingorganisms, the introduction of life into the oceanacidification $icture greatly com$licates things. A num%er of interrelated %iological $henomena, for e=am$le,must also %e consideredT and when they are, it %ecomes much more difficult to draw such swee$ing negativeconclusions as $ortrayed %y the )*! in their film. n fact, as demonstrated in the following $aragra$hs, theseconsiderations even suggest that the rising !5 content of Earth7s atmos$here may well %e a $ositive$henomenon, enhancing the growth rates of corals and hel$ing them to %etter withstand the many

environmental stresses that truly are inimical to their well#%eing, such as storm damage, sea#level rise, e=tremetem$eratures, human#induced damage resulting from mining, dredging, fishing and tourism, as well asintensified $ollution due to an over#a%undance of nutrients, $esticides, her%icides and $articulates arising fromagricultural and other enter$rises.

C3 absorption in ceans increases Calcification an& increases rowthI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Scienceand Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

5ver si=ty years ago, 9awaguti and Sa&umoto -:;<24 illustrated the im$ortance of $hotosynthesis in theconstruction of coral reefs. S$ecifically, they analy>ed numerous data sets recorded in earlier $u%lications,demonstrating that coral calcification rates are considera%ly higher in the daylight -when $hotosynthesis %ycoral sym%ionts occurs4 than they are in the dar& -when the sym%ionts lose car%on via res$iration4. A num%erof more modern studies have also demonstrated that sym%iont $hotosynthesis enhances coral calcification-8arnes and !hal&er, :;;@T Jamashiro, :;;R4T and they have further demonstrated that long# term reefcalcification rates generally rise in direct $ro$ortion to increases in rates of reef $rimary $roduction-Fran&ignoulle et al., :;;T Gattuso et al., :;;, :;;;4. n fact, the wor& of 3uscatine -:;;@4 suggests that /the$hotosynthetic activity of >oo=anthellae is the chief source of energy for the energetically e=$ensive $rocess ofcalcification0 -Hoegh#Guld%erg, :;;;4. !onseMuently, if an anthro$ogenic#induced increase in the transfer of!5 from the atmos$here to the world7s oceans, i.e., hydros$heric !5 enrichment, were to lead to increases in

coral sym%iont $hotosynthesis B as atmos$heric !5 enrichment does for essentially all terrestrial $lants-9im%all, :;2T dso, :;;T dso and dso, :;;<4 B it is li&ely that coral calcification rates would also increase.

Another conseMuence of this $henomenon is that more ro%ustly growing >oo=anthellae may ta&e u$ more ofthe meta%olic waste $roducts of the coral host, which, if $resent in too great Muantities, can $rove detrimentalto the health of the host, as well as the health of the entire coral $lant#animal assem%lage -Jonge, :;2T!rossland and 8arnes, :;?<4. 'here are also a num%er of other su%stances that are &nown to directly interfere

with calcium car%onate $reci$itationT and they too can %e actively removed from the water %y coral sym%iontsin much the same way that sym%ionts remove host waste $roducts -Sim&iss, :;<4. 3ore im$ortantly, $erha$s,a greater amount of sym%iont#$roduced $hotosynthates may $rovide more /fuel0 for the active trans$ort$rocesses involved in coral calcification -!hal&er and 'aylor, :;?R4, as well as more raw materials for thesynthesis of the coral organic matri= -Wainwright, :;T 3uscatine, :;?T 8attey and Patton, :;2<4. Finally,the $hotosynthetic $rocess hel$s to maintain a healthy aero%ic or o=ic environment for the o$timal growth of

the coral animals -)in&evich and +oya, :;2<T )ands et al., :;;4T and greater !5#induced rates of sym%iont$hotosynthesis would enhance this im$ortant /environmental $rotection0 activity. ? n light of these severalo%servations and their logical im$lications, with ever more !5 going into the air, driving ever more !5 intothe oceans, increasingly greater rates of coral sym%iont $hotosynthesis would %e e=$ected to %e o%served, allelse %eing eMual. And this $henomenon, in turn, should increasingly enhance all of the many $ositive$hotosynthetic#de$endent $henomena descri%ed a%ove and there%y increase coral calcification rates.Furthermore, it should increase these rates well %eyond the $oint of over$owering the modest negative effect ofthe $urely chemical conseMuences of elevated dissolved !5 on ocean $H and calcium car%onate saturationstate. However, arriving at these conclusions is not as sim$le as it sounds.

Coral Reefs not sensitive to cean Aci&ification



I&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Scienceand Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

According to one scientist a$$earing in the )*! film, Icoral reefs are $articularly sensitive to oceanacidification,I and in a dire $rediction he further o$ines that we are $resently in Ithe last decade in which wecan do something a%out this $ro%lem.I As ever more $ertinent evidence accumulates, however, the true storya$$ears to %e "ust the o$$osite of this $rediction. Herfort et al. -@@24, for e=am$le, note that an increase inatmos$heric !5 will cause an increase in the a%undance of H!5# -%icar%onate4 ions and dissolved !5T andthey re$ort that several studies on marine $lants have o%served Iincreased $hotosynthesis with higher thanam%ient *! dissolved inorganic car%onX concentrations,I citing the wor&s of Gao et al. -:;;4, Weis -:;;4,8eer and )ehn%erg -:;;?4, 3aru%ini and 'ha&e -:;;24, 3ercado et al. -@@:, @@4, Herfort et al. -@@4 and_ou et al. -@@4. 'o further e=$lore this su%"ect, and to see what it might im$ly for coral calcification, the threeresearchers em$loyed a wide range of %icar%onate concentrations Ito monitor the &inetics of %icar%onate use in

%oth $hotosynthesis and calcification in two reef#%uilding corals, Porites $orites and Acro$ora s$.I 'his wor&revealed that additions of H!5# to synthetic seawater continued to increase the calcification rate of Porites$orites until the %icar%onate concentration e=ceeded three times that of seawater, while $hotosynthetic rates ofthe corals sym%iotic algae were stimulated %y H!5# addition until they %ecame saturated at twice the normalH!5# concentration of seawater.

cean Aci&ification has no effect on CorralCoral Reefs not sensitive to cean Aci&ificationI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

'hus, contrar" to claims that historical anthropo'enic C3 emissions have alrea&" resulte& in asi'nificant &ecline in ocean water p6 an& ara'onite saturation state, Pele"ero et al .s @@#yearrecord of these $arameters -which, in their words, %egan Iwell %efore the start of the ndustrial )evolutionI4$rovides no evidence of such a decline. What is more, and also contrar" to claims of how sensitive coralcalcification rate is to chan'es in p6 and aragonite saturation state, the" foun& that hu'e c"clicalchan'es in these parameters ha& essentiall" no &etectable effect on either coral calcification orskeletal eBtension rates/

6istorical Rates &isprove &evastation of Calcification DeclineI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

As an e=am$le of this fact, the two researchers re$ort that Ia &ecline in calcification e+uivalent to therecent &ecline occurre& earlier this centur" an& much 'reater &eclines occurre& in the (8th an&(!th centuries%I lon' before anthropo'enic C3 emissions ma&e much of an impact on the airsC3 concentration. n fact, over the entire e=$anse of their data set, ou'h an& ,arnes &etermine&that the 3th centur" has witnesse& the secon& hi'hest perio& of above avera'e calcification inthe past 359 "ears,I which is not eBactl" what one woul& eBpect in li'ht of -:4 how dangerous high

water tem$eratures are often said to %e for corals, -4 the claim that earth is currentl" warmer than it



has been at any other time during the entire $ast millennium, an& -4 the fact that the airs C3 content iscurrentl" much hi'her than it has %een for a vastly longer time.

Increases in C3 raise p6 of water – This counters cean Aci&ification

6istorical Rates &isprove &evastation of Calcification DeclineI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al

!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

Another reason wh" the on'oin' rise in the airs C3 content ma" not lea& to re&uce& oceanicp6 an&% therefore% lower calcification rates in the worl&s coral reefs% is that the samephenomenon that powers the twin processes of coral calcification an& ph"toplanktonic 'rowth -$hotosynthesis4 ten&s to increase the p6 of marine waters -Gnaiger et al., :;?2T Santhanam et al.,:;;<T 8russaard et al., :;;T +indholm and ummelin, :;;;T 3acedo et al., @@:T Hansen, @@4T and thisphenomenon has been shown to have the abilit" to &ramaticall" increase the p6 of marine

ba"s, lagoons and tidal $ools -Gnaiger et al., :;?2T 3acedo et al., @@:T Hansen, @@4 as well as to

significantly enhance the surface water $H of areas as large as the orth Sea -8russaard et al., :;;4. n onee=am$le, :i&&elboe an& 6ansen -@@?4 stu&ie& the p6 of a wave-eBpose& boul&er reef in

Aals'aar&e on the northern coast of _ealand, *enmar&, and a sheltered shallow#water area in 9ilde%a&&ernein the estuary )os&ilde F"ord, *enmar&, re$orting that, in line with what one would e=$ect if $hotosynthesistends to increase surface#water $H, -:4 Idaytime $H was :< significantly higher in s$ring, summer and autumnthan in winter at %oth study sites,I often reaching values of ; or more during $ea& summer growth $eriods vs. 2or less in winter, that -4 I&iurnal measurements at the most eBpose& site showe& si'nificantl"hi'her p6 &urin' the &a" than &urin' the ni'ht%I reaching values that sometimes e=ceeded ; duringdaylight hours %ut that ty$ically di$$ed %elow 2 at night, and -4 that Idiurnal variations were largest in theshallow water and decreased with increasing water de$th.I n addition to their own findings, 3iddel%oe andHansen cite those of -:4 Pearson et al. -:;;24, who found that $H averaged a%out ; during the summer in$o$ulations of Fucus vesiculosus in the 8altic Sea, -4 3enende> et al. -@@:4, who found that ma=imum $H

was ; to ;.R in dense floating macroalgae in a %rac&ish coastal lagoon in the E%ro )iver *elta, and -4 8"or& etal. -@@<4, who found $H values as high as ;.2 to :@.: in isolated roc& $ools in Sweden. oting that I$H in thesea is usually considered to %e sta%le at around 2 to 2.,I the two *anish researchers thus concluded that Ip6is hi'her in natural shallow-water habitats than previousl" thou'ht.I

Aci&ification will not harm small r'anismsI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

Accor&in' to the )RDC, most shellfish% various plankton an& other marine species are all vulnerable to C3-in&uce& ocean aci&ification. Jet, once again, a vast arra" of &ata su''ests thatmost of these other marine or'anisms will also a&apt +uite well to an" human-in&uce& chan'ein oceanic p6. ?urihara et al. -@@?4, for e=am$le% eBtracte& se&imentar" mu& containin'meiofauna B small %enthic inverte%rates that can $ass through a @.R # : mm mesh %ut are retained %y a @ #<R m mesh B from the seafloor of 'ana%e 8ay on the 9ii Peninsula of a$an and incu%ated it in marine :? microcosms that were continuously aerated for R days with air of either @ or ,@ $$m !5 ## the latter of

which concentrations has %een $redicted %y some to %e characteristic of the Earth in the year @@ ## whilethey $eriodically measured the a%undance and %iomass of different mem%ers of the meio%enthic communitycontained in the sediments. 'he researchers7 observations reveale& no si'nificant &ifferences in theabun&ance of total meiofauna% nemato&es% harpacticoi& copepo&s -including adults and



co$e$odites4 an& nauplii %y the end of the e=$eriment.I n addition, they say there ma" have beensuccessful recruitments un&er elevate& C3 con&itions,I and, therefore, that Ielevate& C3 ha&not impacte& the repro&uction of nemato&es an& harpacticoi& copepo&s.I 'hus, the threeresearchers concluded that their results suggest that /the pro.ecte& atmospheric C3 concentration inthe "ear 35 &oes not have acute effects on the meiofauna/

6i'her C3 &ramaticall" increases primar" pro&uctivit" an& species success

I&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

n a review of what is &nown a%out the effects of a !5#enriched atmos$here on micro# and macro#algae livingin the world7s oceans, Wu et al. -@@24 write that /enriche& C3 up to several times the presentatmospheric level has been shown to enhance photos"nthesis an& 'rowth of bothph"toplanktonic an& macro-species that have less ca$acity of !!3s !5#concentrating mechanismsX,0adding that /even for s$ecies that o$erate active !!3s and those whose $hotosynthesis is not limited %y !5in seawater, increased !5 levels can down#regulate their !!3s and therefore enhance their growth under

light#limiting conditions,0 %ecause /at hi'her C3 levels% less li'ht ener'" is re+uire& to &rive CC:.0n addition% the" report that enhance& C3 levels have been foun& to enhance the activit" ofnitro'en re&uctase in several marine $lants, an& that this $henomenon / woul& support enhance&'rowth rate b" provi&in' a&e+uate nitro'en re+uire& for the metabolism un&er the hi'h C3level.0 +ast of all, they say that /altere& ph"siolo'ical performances un&er hi'h-C3 con&itionsma" cause 'enetic alteration in view of a&aptation over lon' time scales,0 and that /marine al'aema" a&apt to a hi'h C3 oceanic environment so that evolve& communities in LtheM future arelikel" to be 'eneticall" &ifferent from contemporar" communities.0 'he findings descri%ed %y thethree researchers re$resent 'oo& news for the biosphere, since /marine ph"toplankton contribute toabout half of the 'lobal primar" pro&uctivit"%0 and this $henomenon, in their words, /$romotes thea%sor$tion of !5 from the atmos$here.0 Conse+uentl"% both the micro- an& macro-al'ae of the

worl&s oceans shoul& be able to &o an even more robust .ob of performin' these vital functions

in a C3-enriche& worl& of the future/

cean Aci&ification will not effect fishI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

Although this conclusion sounds dire indeed, it re$resents an egregious flight of the imagination in terms of what could realistically %e e=$ected to ha$$en anytime in earths future. shimatsu et al. re$ort, for e=am$le,

that Ipre&icte& future C3 concentrations in the atmosphere are lower than the known lethalconcentrations for fish,I noting that Ithe eBpecte& peak value is about (/@ torr "ust under :2R@ $$mXaround the year @@ according to !aldeira and Wic&ett -@@4.I And with regard to "ust how far %elow thelethal C3 concentration for fish :.< torr is, in the case of short#term e=$osures on the order of a fewdays, they cite a num%er of studies that yield median lethal concentrations ranging from 59 to 7 torr, which

values are 31 an& 51 times 'reater than the maBimum C3 concentration eBpecte& some 5 "ears from now Y And in the case of long#term e=$osures, to cite "ust a few e=am$les, shimatsu et al. re$ortthat Fivelstad et al. -:;;;4 o%served only R and 2N mortality at the end of days of e=$osure to !5concentrations of R and ; torr, res$ectively, for freshwater Atlantic salmon smolts, while mere : and RNmortalities were found for seawater $ostsmolts of the same s$ecies at : and @ torr after < days -Fivelstad etal., :;;24. n addition, they say that Smart et al. -:;?;4 found little difference in mortality for freshwaterrain%ow trout reared for ?R days at < to :? torr, and that no mortality occurred %y the tenth wee& of e=$osure



of "uvenile s$otted wolf fish to @ torr -Foss et al., @@4. Fish em%ryos and larvae, however, are often more vulnera%le to environmental stresses than are adult fish. Jet even here% the authors report that the 3@-hour me&ian lethal concentration of C3 on both e''s an& larvae of several marine fish stu&ie&

b" ?ikkawa et al/ Y35N ran'e& wi&el" from ( torr to 9 torr amon' species% with thesmaller of these two values bein' over seven times 'reater than the C3 concentration eBpecte&5 "ears from now . +astly, shimatsu et al.s review reveals growth reductions of < to <2NT %ut, again,the C3 concentrations nee&e& to in&uce these 'rowth re&uctions ran'e& from (9 to 3 torr% or: to :< times more than the !5 concentration e=$ected @@ years from now. !learly, therefore, thescientific literature review of shimatsu et al. su''ests that earths fish% both freshwater an&

marine% will likel" never eBperience an" &iscomfort or ill effects from the direct conseMuences of theelevated atmos$heric !5 concentrations caused %y human activities.

Re'ulation prevents allows fish to survive Climate Chan'eI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

At the conclusion of the study, the siB erman scientists reporte& that /motor activit" in a&ult

Atlantic Co& is not compromise& b" lon'-term eBposure to water <C3 levels of /5-/1 k<a,0 which are /scenarios eBcee&in' the /3 k<a value pre&icte& for surface ocean waters aroun& 37the "ear 35 -!alderia and Wic&ett, @@4.0 n light of what they learned from their study, therefore,3el>ner et al. concluded that /a&ults of active fish species with a hi'h ion re'ulator" capacit"Lwhich is emplo"e& to eliminate metabolic C3M are well e+uippe& to cope with prospecte&scenarios of 'lobal climate chan'e,0 even those far %eyond what could li&ely %e $roduced %y the %urningof all fossil fuels in the crust of the earth.

Calcif"in' ife is incre&ibl" resilient – #ill a&apt to p6 &ropsI&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al

!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

'hese several fin&in's, according to 'unnicliffe et al., attest to the eBtent to which lon'-terma&aptation can &evelop tolerance to eBtreme con&itions.I And "ust how e=treme were the conditionsin which the mussels livedO )eferring %ac& to the stu&" of Cal&eira an& #ickett -@@4 who calculate&a /9 unit p6 &ecline from 8/( to 9/@ b" the "ear 35, and considering the much lower $H range in

which the mussels studied %y 'unnicliffe et al. and the man" species stu&ie& b" imen an& 0uniper were livin' Y7/51 to 9/3!N, There is ample reason to believe that even the worst case atmosphericC3-in&uce& aci&ification scenario that can possibl" be conceive& woul& not prove a ma.or

&etriment to most calcif"in' sea life/ ;

*** Science proves no basis for cean Aci&ification Impacts I&so% ( # the founder and chairman of the %oard of the !enter for the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al!hange, Ph* in Geogra$hy from ASU -:CRC@:@, *r. !raig *. dso, Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute, /7A!*'ES'( 'he Glo%al !hallenge 5f 5cean Acidification7 B A ew Pro$aganda Film 8y 'he ational )esources*efense !ouncil Fails 'he Acid 'est 5f )eal World *ata,0 Science and Pu%lic Policy nstitute and the !enterfor the Study of !ar%on *io=ide and Glo%al !hange. !S4

n conclusion, %ased on the many real#world o%servations and la%oratory e=$eriments descri%ed a%ove, it isclear that recent theoretical claims of impen&in' marine species eBtinctions% &ue to increases



in the atmospheres C3 concentration% have no basis in empirical realit" . n fact, theseunsupportable contentions are t"picall" refute& b" &emonstrable facts/ As such, the )RDCsportra"al of C3-in&uce& ocean aci&ification as a megadisaster#in#the#ma&ing is seen, at %est, to %e aone#sided distortion of the truth or, at worst, a blatant attempt to &eceive the public . Surely, the )*!and the scientists $ortrayed in their film should have %een aware of at least one of the numerous peer-reviewe& scientific .ournal articles that &o not support a catastrophic B or even a problematic –

view of the effect of ocean aci&ification on calcif"in' marine or'anismsT and they should haveshared that information with the $u%lic. f %y some slim chance they were not aware, shame on them for notinvesting the time, energy, and resources needed to fully investigate an issue that has $rofound significance for

the %ios$here. And if they did &now the results of the studies we have discussed, no one shoul& ever believea sin'le wor& the" ma" utter or write in the future. Finally, if there is a lesson to %e learned from thematerials $resented in this document, it is that far too man" pre&ictions of C3-in&uce&catastrophes are looke& upon as sure-to-occur% when real-worl& observations show such&ooms&a" scenarios to be hi'hl" unlikel" or even virtual impossibilities/ The phenomenon ofC3-in&uce& ocean aci&ification is no &ifferent/ Risin' atmospheric C3 concentrations arenot the bane of the biosphereZ the" are an invaluable boon to the planets man" life forms/



,io&iversit"

De-forrestin' tren&s lea& to ,io&iversit" &estructionCar&illo% 1 B *r. 3arcel !adillo Proffesor in the 8iology *ivison at m$erial !ollege +ondon -@@, *r.3arcel !adillo, /*isa$earing Forests and 8iodiversity +oss( Which areas should we $rotectO,0 nternationalForestry )eview, ol. 2, $$. R:#RR, !S4

Forests are the most %iodiverse terrestrial ha%itats on earth. Despite a growing awareness that biodiversity and properly-

functioning natural ecosystems make a crucial contribution to human wellbeing (Rashid et al. 2003), deforestation is $roceedingat a ra$id $ace throughout much of the world. n 8ra>il, for example, more forest was lost in the : years u$ to@@< than in all the $receding centuries. With massive investmentsinroads,damsandothereconomicinfrastructure International

Forestry Review Vol.8(2), 2006 251252 M. Cardillo on the drawing board, it is $redicted that <@N of remaining forest in the Ama>on %asin will %e lost %y @R@ (Soares- Filho et al. 2006). n other heavily#forested countries, such as ndonesiaand Pa$ua ew Guinea, deforestation rates are also at historically high levels (FAO 2006).

*eforestation and S$ecies E=tinction ma&e the im$act inevita%le

Car&illo% 1 B *r. 3arcel !adillo Proffesor in the 8iology *ivison at m$erial !ollege +ondon -@@, *r.3arcel !adillo, /*isa$earing Forests and 8iodiversity +oss( Which areas should we $rotectO0 nternationalForestry )eview, ol. 2, $$. R:#RR !S4

Using this method it has been predicted, for example, that endemic mammal s$ecies richness in the 8ra>ilian Ama>oncould %e reduced %y R# :2N under different modelled scenarios of forest loss to @@ (Grelle 2005). The principal

aims of global prioritisation schemes such as these are firstly, to conserve as much biodiversity as possible, and secondly, to conserve

a sample of biodiversity that represents the broadest possible range of species and ecosystem types. 'he em$hasis is largely onthose $arts of the world deemed to have the most %iodiversity to lose, or where s$ecies are $erceived to %eunder the most immediate threat of e=tinction. These aims are a natural response to a crisis situation of rapid habitat loss

and species declines, combined with limited funding available for conservation. But relatively little attention has %een $aid tosystematic forward $lanning for e=tinctions. Many parts of the world still retain large areas of intact habitat. In these areas,

what is the most effective way to avoid a future rerun of the widespread extinctions that have already occurred in more heavily-

modified regions? One way is to identify and prioritise areas where species appear to be especially sensitive to human disturbance. In

terms of protecting biodiversity, there are two %asic res$onses to the current situation. The first is to attem$t tomitigate the underlying causes of deforestation %y addressing the social, $olitical and economic factors that

allow forest destruction to $revail over sustaina%le management (Geist and Lambin 2002). The second is to acce$tthat deforestation will continue at high rates for the foreseea%le future, and concentrate on conserving thes$ecies and ha%itats that remain. These are of course not mutually exclusive alternatives, but in this article, I focus on the

second of these responses. 8ecause of limited resources, $lanning for conservation is largely an e=ercise in$rioritisation. I examine some of the approaches that have been taken to global conservation prioritisation, and describe a new

approach based on the identification of areas where many species appear particularly extinction-prone.

!urrent !limate trends ma&e 8iodiversity loss inevita%le'he Euro$ean !ommision, 2 -?C:?C@2, 'he Euro$ean !ommisson, /Planning for the inevita%le( the im$act ofclimate change on %iodiversity,0 'he Euro$ean !ommission *G E, ews Alert ssue :: !S4

!limate change is already having an im$act on ha%itats and s$ecies in Euro$e, for e=am$le a decrease in $lant

s$ecies has %een recorded in some areas. According to recent research, s$atial $lanning is a &ey conce$t inma&ing Euro$ean ecosystems more resilient to climate change, as it ta&es into account all factors that affect aha%itat, including economic develo$ment, trans$ort, environmental $rotection, health and culture. 3anyscientific re$orts suggest that unavoida%le changes in climate will ha$$en over the ne=t <@#R@ years as a resultof $ast emissions. Areas seen as most vulnera%le to climate change include the 3editerranean and southern Euro$e,mountain and su%#arctic areas, and densely occu$ied flood$lains and coastal >ones. Annual tem$eratures could increase

%y .@#. degrees centigrade %y :@@. )ainfall could also increase %y :# $er cent $er decade for northern Euro$e anddecrease %y : $er cent in southern Euro$e. Events affecting ha%itats and %iodiversity will include heat waves,droughts, storms and rising sea levels. 'he im$act may cause s$ecies to move towards the north and anincrease in e=tinction rates. 3itigation remains the &ey focus of climate change $olicy, with less attention givento understanding how to ada$t to inevita%le rising tem$eratures. 'he $ressures of climate change $resent ama"or challenge, not "ust for %iodiversity $olicy, %ut also for land use $olicy, which affects %iodiversity. 'he EU7s @@



8iodiversity !ommunication and its Action Plan set an agenda for action to halt the loss of %iodiversity %y @:@, as agreedin the Gothen%urg summit, @@:. However, %iodiversity continues to decline under $ressure from land use changeand develo$ment. For e=am$le, as water su$$lies for ur%an $o$ulations shrin&, %uilding new infrastructures may $lacestress on e=isting ground and surface water systems and the flora and fauna that rely on it. 'he research : reviewed landuse $lans and $olicy in three countries( France, the etherlands and the U9. t loo&ed at their use of natural resources,management of water and coastal >ones, $lans for designated sites and case studies on ur%an, rural, inland and coastalsites. 'he $olicies were e=amined for their a%ility to account for %iodiversity ada$tation to climate change andto identify ways of integrating ]s$atial $lanning7 and %iodiversity $olicy . S$atial $lanning has a %roader sense than

]land use7, in that it accounts for all activities and interests that concern a $articular area. 'he authors found that

although dynamic %iodiversity is %ecoming more fully realised in s$atial $lanning $olicy , e=isting EU directivessuch as the 8irds *irective -!E! :;?;4, the Ha%itats *irective -!E! :;;4, and the atura @@@ networ& set u$ to create anetwor& of $rotected sites, %y themselves cannot fully $rotect landsca$e features necessary to su$$ort

%iodiversity under a $eriod of $rolonged climate change. 'hey recommend ]climate#$roofing7 $lans through the useof Environmental m$act Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment. +and use $lans should %e integrated withthe ado$tion of common o%"ectives, time hori>ons and %oundaries. 'he study also highlighted the need for morefle=i%le res$onses to climate change, with sta&eholders safeguarding ha%itats in %etween $rotected areas. 'his wouldresult in more ro%ust conservation $lanning across whole landsca$es, reducing fragmentation of sites and creatingcorridors and networ&s for wildlife. nternational coo$eration was also found to %e critical, as wildlife moves acrossnational %oundaries. ntegration with agriculture, trans$ort and water sectors would also lead to a %etter ca$acity to ada$tto climate change. 8arriers to $utting a fully effective $olicy in $lace include( $lanning time#scales that are tooshort, a lac& of consensus on intervention measures, uncertainty on the actual im$act of climate changeim$acts, conflicts of interest and $u%lic o$inion which is sensitive to change, es$ecially in treasured

landsca$es.

m$act to 8iodiversity is a myth

)<R% 9 -RC@C@@?, *onald . *odds 3.S. P.E., President of the orth Pacific )esearch, /'he 3yth of8iodiversity,0 northa#i&i#resear#h#om2downloads2he3myth3o&3+iodi*ersitydo# S)

8iodiversity is a corner stone of the environmental movement. 8ut there is no $roof that %iodiversity isim$ortant to the environment. Something without %asis in scientific fact is called a 3yth. +ets e=amine

%iodiversity through out the history of the earth. 'he earth has %een a around for a%out < %illion years. +ife didnot develo$ until a%out R@@ million years later. 'hus for the first R@@ million years %io diversity was >ero. 'he$lanet somehow survived this lac& of %iodiversity. For the ne=t %illion years, the only life on the $lanet wasmicro%ial and not diverse. 'hus, the first une=$laina%le fact is that the earth e=isted for .R %illion years, 2?.RN

of its e=istence, without %iodiversity. Somewhere around R@@ million years ago life %egan to diversify andmulti$le celled s$ecies a$$eared. 8ecause these s$ecies were $artially com$osed of sold material they left

%etter geologic records, and the num%er of s$ecies and genera could %e cataloged and counted. 'he num%er ofgenera on the $lanet is a indication of the %iodiversity of the $lanet. Figure : is a $lot of the num%er of generaon the $lanet over the last RR@ million years. 'he little %lac& line outside of the left edge of the gra$h is :@million years. otice the left end of this gra$h. 8iodiversity has never %een higher than it is today.

,io&iversit" collapse& &ont cause eBtinction)<R% 9 -RC@C@@?, *onald . *odds 3.S. P.E., President of the orth Pacific )esearch, /'he 3yth of8iodiversity,0 northa#i&i#resear#h#om2downloads2he3myth3o&3+iodi*ersitydo# S)

otice ne=t that at least ten times %iodiversity fell ra$idlyT none of these e=treme reductions in %iodiversity

were caused %y humans. Around R@ million years ago the num%er of genera was reduce 2R $ercent from a%out:@@ to around @@, %y any definition a significant reduction in %iodiversity. ow notice that after thise=tinction a stee$ and ra$id rise of %iodiversity. n fact, if you loo& closely at the curve, you will find that everymass#e=tinction was followed %y a massive increase in %iodiversity. Why was thatO *o you su$$ose it hadanything to do with the num%er environmental niches availa%le for e=$loitationO f you do, you are right.E=tinctions are necessary for creation. Each time a mass e=tinction occurs the world is filled with new and

%etter#ada$ted s$ecies. 'hat is the way evolution wor&s, its called survival of the fittest. 'hose s$ecies thatcould not ada$ted to the changing world conditions sim$ly disa$$eared and %etter s$ecies evolved. Howefficient is thatO 'hose that could ada$t to change continued to thrive. For e=am$le, the coc&roach and theshar& have %een around well over @@ million years. 'here is a $air to draw to, two successful s$ecies that any



creator would %e $roud to $roduce. 'o date these creatures have successful survived si= e=tinctions, withoutthe aid of humans or the EPA.

3ammals can survive 8iodiversity colla$se


A closer loo& at the 9' e=tinction R million years ago reveals at least three things. First the :R@@ genera thatremained had $assed the test of environmental com$ati%ility and remained on the $lanet. 'his was not anaccident. Second, these e=tinctions freed niches for occu$ation %y %etter#ada$ted s$ecies. 'he remaininggenera now faced an environment with hundreds of thousands of vacant niches. 'hird, it only too& a%out :Rmillion years to refill all of those niches and com$letely re$laced the dinosaurs, with new and %etter s$ecies. nthis conte=t, a %etter s$ecies is %y definition one that is more successful in dealing with a changingenvironment. 3any of those genera that survived the 9' e=tinction were early mammals, a more so$histicatedclass of life that had develo$ed new and %etter ways of facing the environment. 'hese genera were now free toe=$and and diversify without the $resences of the life dominating dinosaurs. 'hus, as a direct result of thismass e=tinction humans are around to discuss the conseMuences of change. f the EPA had $revented thedinosaur e=tinction, neither the human race, nor the EPA would have e=isted. 'he unfortunate truth is that theall#$owerful human s$ecies does not yet have the intelligence or the &nowledge to regulate evolution. t is evenMuestiona%le that they have the s&ills to $revent their own e=tinction.

8iodiversity is im$ossi%le to regulate


Humans are wor&ing against nature when they try to $revent e=tinctions and free>e %iodiversity. E=amine thecurve in figure one, at no time since the origin of life has %iodiversity %een constant. f this $rinci$al has

wor&ed for RR@ million years on this $lanet, and science is su$$osed to find truth in nature, %y what twistedreasoning can fi=ing %iodiversity %e considered scienceO +et alone good for the environment.Environmentalists are now &illing s$ecies that they ar%itrarily term invasive, which are in reality sim$ly %etterada$ted to the current environment. !onsider the 8arred 5wl, a su$erior s$ecies is %eing &illed in the name of

%iodiversity %ecause the 8arred 5wl is trying to re$lace a less environmentally ada$ted s$ecies the S$otted

5wl. 'his is more harmful to the ecosystem %ecause it im$edes the normal flow of evolution %ased on the ideathat %iodiversity must remain constant. Human scientists have decided to ta&e evolution out of the hands of3other ature and give it to the EPA. ow there is a good e=am$le of %rilliance. We all &now what is wrong

with lawyers and $oliticians, %ut scientists are su$$osed to %e trustworthy. Unfortunately, they are all to often,only $eo$le who thin& they &now more than any%ody else. A%raham +incoln said, /'hose who &now not, and&now not that the &now not, are fools shun them.0 !ivili>ation has fallen into the hands of fools. What issuggested %y geologic history is that the world has more %iodiversity than it ever had and that it may%e overduefor another ma"or e=tinction. Unfortunately, today many scientists have too narrow a view. 'hey are highlys$eciali>ed. 'hey have no time for geologic history. 'his a$$ears to %e a $ro%lem of inadeMuate education notignorance. What is a%undantly clear is that artificially enforcing rigid %iodiversity wor&s against the laws ofnature, and will cause irre$ara%le damage to the evolution of life on this $lanet and may%e %eyond. 'he worldand the human s$ecies may %e %etter served if we sto$ trying to $revent change, and %egin trying to

understand change and $ositioning the human s$ecies to that it survives the inevita%le change of evolution. fhistory is to %e %elieved, the $lanet has times more %iodiversity than it had R million years ago. 'rying tosustain that level is futile and may %e dangerous. 'he ne=t ma"or e=tinction, change in %iodiversity, is asinevita%le as climate change. We cannot sto$ either from occurring, %ut we can $osition the human s$ecies tosurvive those changes.

4 Technolo'" solves ,io&iversit"

Carpenter% ((#!onsultant for S8 -une @::, nformation Systems For 8iotechnology, /m$acts of GE!ro$s on 8iodiversity0 www.is%.vt.eduCnewsC@::CunCImpacts#4#Crops#,io&iversit" .$df S)

http://www.isb.vt.edu/news/2011/Jun/Impacts-GE-Crops-Biodiversity.pdf












9nowledge gained over the $ast :R years that GE cro$s have %een grown commercially indicates that theim$acts on %iodiversity are $ositive on %alance. 8y increasing yields, decreasing insecticide use, increasing useof more environmentally friendly her%icides, and facilitating ado$tion of conservation tillage, GE cro$s havecontri%uted to increasing agricultural sustaina%ility. Previous reviews have also reached the general conclusionthat GE cro$s have had little to no negative im$act on the environment. 3ost recently, the U.S. ational)esearch !ouncil released a com$rehensive assessment of the effect of GE cro$ ado$tion on farm sustaina%ilityin the U.S. that concluded, /gXenerally, GEX cro$s have had fewer adverse effects on the environment thannon#GEX cro$s $roduced conventionally0?. 45 #ros #an continue to de#rease ressure on +iodi*ersity asglo+al agri#ultural systems exand to &eed a world oulation that is exe#ted to #ontinue to in#rease &or the

next 67 to 87 years. *ue to higher income elas# ticities of demand and $o$ulation growth, these $ressures will %e greater in develo$ing countries. 8oth current and $i$eline technology hold great $otential in this regard.'he $otential of currently commerciali>ed GE cro$s to increase yields, decrease $esticide use, and facilitate theado$tion of conservation tillage has yet to %e reali>ed, as there continue to %e countries where there is a goodtechnological fit, %ut they have not yet a$$roved these technolo# gies for commerciali>ation. n addition to the$otential %enefits of e=$anded ado$tion of current technology, several $i$eline technologies offer additional$romise of alleviating the im$acts of agriculture on %iodiversity. !ontinued yield im$rovements in cro$s suchas rice and wheat are e=$ected with insect resistant and her%icide tolerant traits that are already com#merciali>ed in other cro$s. 'echnologies such as drought tolerance and salinity tolerance would alleviate the$ressure to convert high %io# diversity areas into agricultural use %y ena%ling cro$ $roduction on su%o$timalsoils. *rought tolerance technology, which allows cro$s to withstand $rolonged $eriods of low soil moisture, isantici$ated to %e commerciali>ed within five years. 'he technology has $articular relevance for areas li&e su%#

Saharan Africa, where drought is a common occurrence and access to irrigation is limited. Salt toleranceaddresses the increasing $ro%lem of saltwater encroach# ment on freshwater resources. itrogen use efficiencytechnology is also under develo$ment, which can reduce run#off of nitrogen fertili>er into surface waters. 'hetechnology $romises to decrease the use of fertili>ers while maintaining yields, or increase yields achieva%le

with reduced fertili>er rates where access to fertili>er in$uts is limited. 'he technology is slated to %ecommerciali>ed within the ne=t :@ years.

:a.or failures in assessin' species bio&iversit" loss

6aber% 8 # head of the nstitute for +andsca$e 3anagement at the 'U 3unich in Freising#Weihenste$han.Federal 3inister for the Environment, ature !onservation and uclear Safety. And President of thenternational Association of Ecology -@@2, Wolfgang Ha%er, /8iological *iversity B a !once$t Going AstrayO,0

GAA :?CR: -@@24, $$. ;:#;R !S4

'he s$ecies a$$roach to %iodiversity hits u$on several funda# mental o%stacles. About two thirds of all s$eciesconcern tiny animals, algae and fungi that only a few specialists can identify. Many other groups of organisms, in particular the

numerous, ecologically indispensable fungi and microorganisms, even defy a distinction of species. Still worse: the %iological su%disci$linesof systematics and ta=onomy, the only ones ca$a%le to investigate, identify and classify the huge diversity oforganisms – they have, since Linnaeus’ times, never received sufficient personal and fi# nancial means to com$ly with thesenecessities (Glaubrecht 2007), and today suffer from further reductions and even closures. How many species have existed and still exist on earth

will never be known; there are only speculative estimates. Their number, however, depends on the species concept – a mental construct with which

scientists are always grappling. Liv- ing nature consists of innumerable individual organisms that taxonomists compare with each other for similarity

of essential properties in order to assign them to “species”. Rather easy as this may be with most higher plants and animals, it becomes ever more

difficult with lower and smaller organisms like flies or mites. Depending on choice and weight of criteria for assigning an individual to a species,

ta=onomists may create from :@ @@@ individuals of flies or mites %etween, for e=am$le, R@ and :2@@ s$ecies.

'his alone is reason enough to re"ect s$ecies num%ers as measures of %iodiversity . You often read or hear that %etween@ and @@ s$ecies (the numbers vary considerably) %ecome e=tinct every day . I always ask the authors of such statements to give me

the names of at least five to ten of those species, and to explain their importance for the ecosystems where they live – I never got an answer. But such

unsound and erroneous argumentation for biodiversity continues in spite of serious warnings of scientists!

*ominant S$ecies control ecosystem sta%ility, not diversity

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from theGraduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Societyof a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society ofa$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany atthe University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiro



Sasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

Thus, our findings showed that tem$oral sta%ility in communities was largely controlled for nearly a decade %ydominant s$ecies rather than %y diversity itself , support- ing Grime’s (1998) mass ratio hypothesis. 'he generality ofdiversityBsta%ility relationshi$s might %e restricted %y the dynamics of a dominant s$ecies (Leps 2004; Polley et al.

2007), especially when the species has features that distinguish it from others that would contribute to stability in highly stochastic systems.'he results were ro%ust when we %ased the analyses on the su%set data from @@ to @@ (Fig. S1 of the Electronic

supplementary material), suggesting that the confounding effects of directional res$onses of vegetation to the

removal treatment on the results were small . However, our results do not necessarily suggest that diversity is unimportant to

community stability. In particular, minor vegetation components such as subdominant and rare species might regulate stability in the longer

term by influencing the recruitment of dominant species (Grime 1998). A clear implication from this study is that community dominance

hierarchies and their changes might be among the important ecological components that need to be considered when managing communities

to maintain ecosystem functioning (Smith and Knapp 2003; Hillebrand et al. 2008; Grman et al. 2010).

*ominant S$ecies sta%ili>e ecosystem B not diversity

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from theGraduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Societyof a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society of

a$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany atthe University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiroSasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

In contrast, we found a significant $ositive relationshi$ %etween tem$oral sta%ility and the relative a%undance ofdominant s$ecies (Fig. 2f). 'his suggests that the dominant C4 grasses, B. gracilis and B. dactyloides, rather thandiversity itself, regulate community sta%ility . Indeed, the value for the relative a%undance of dominant s$ecies in ourcase corres$onded e=actly to the mean trait value (Garnier et al. 2004) for photosynthetic pathway (C3 or C4). 'he fact thattem$oral sta%ility increased significantly with the relative a%undance of dominant s$ecies6not functionaldiversity , which incorporates species’ dissimilarities as defined by various traits—also supported the importance of dominant species in

stabilizing communities, as suggested by Mokany et al. (2008). The relationships between summed variances, covariances, and abundance

and the relative abundance of dominant species were all negative (Fig. 3c, g, k). Because C4 plant species generally are tolerant to drought

stresses (Sage 2001), the fluctuations in their population abundance under high interannual variability in rainfall are small. In addition, Fair etal. (1999) reported that B. gracilis produces long-lived genets and can therefore maintain its population in the community because its

occupation of resource space for long periods prevents the recruitment of other species. Thus, the population stability of B. gracilis was

probably reflected in the negative relationships between summed variances and covariances and the relative abundance of dominant species.

However, increased abundance of dominant species did not contribute to increased community abundance (Fig. 3k). Although anincrease in summed a%undances also ma&es it less li&ely that environmental stochasticity will result in lowtem$oral sta%ility (Tilman 1999; Hughes and Roughgarden 2000), the sta%ili>ing effect under$inned %y the negative rela#tionshi$s %etween summed variances and covariances and the a%undance of dominant s$ecies was sufficientlystrong to sta%ili>e communities.

8iodiversity does not lead to sta%ility

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from the

Graduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Societyof a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society ofa$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany atthe University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiroSasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

We found a significant negative relationshi$ %etween tem$oral sta%ility and s$ecies richness, num%er of rares$ecies, and relative a%undance of rare s$ecies (Fig. 2a, d, h). 'his is counter to the growing %ody of em$iricalevidence that suggests that the tem$oral sta%ility of communities increases with diversity (Tilman 1999; Cottingham

et al. 2001; Valone and Hoffman 2003; Tilman et al. 2006). Many theoretical studies have focused on the portfolio and covariance effects

(see ‘‘Materials and methods’’) in demonstrating how increased diversity can confer increased temporal stability (Tilman 1999; Yachi and



Loreau 1999; Hughes and Roughgarden 2000). However, we found no significant relationshi$s %etween summed variancesand s$ecies richness and num%er of rare s$ecies (Fig. 3a, b), and we found significant positive relationships between summed

covariances and species richness and number of rare species (Fig. 3e, f). either the $ortfolio nor the covariance effectcontri%uted significantly to tem$oral sta%ility in our communities. Rare species that generally exhibit greater temporal

fluctuations than common species should more often exhibit years of zero abundance than common species because of their small population

sizes (Lande 1993; Valone and Schutzenhofer 2007), resulting in synchrony in response to high interannual variability in rainfall. This

probably dampened the expected stabilizing effect of species richness on temporal stability (Yachi and Loreau 1999). Valone and Barber

(2008) also showed that covariances between most pairs of species in natural communities were more often positive than negative, potentially

because of shared responses of coexisting species to fluctuations in a common resource base, pos- sibly driven by climatic fluctuations.

Moreover, the relationship between summed abundance and species richness was not significant (Fig. 3i), suggesting that overyielding wasnot important in our communities. A previous study has indicated that functional diversity is a good predictor of the overyielding effect of

species richness (Griffin et al. 2009). 5ur findings suggest that, although we do not &now the e=$licit mechanism, thelac& of change in functional diversity, des$ite the increase in s$ecies rich# ness resulting from the removal ofdominant s$ecies, might e=$lain the a%sence of an overyielding effect. 'hus, there were no o$erationalsta%ili>ing effects of greater diversityT rather, greater s$ecies richness su$$orted %y an increase in the num%erof rare s$ecies desta%ili>ed the communities.

Dominant Species control ecos"stem stabilit"% not &iversit"

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from theGraduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Society

of a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society ofa$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany atthe University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiroSasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

Thus, our findings showed that tem$oral sta%ility in communities was largely controlled for nearly a decade %ydominant s$ecies rather than %y diversity itself , support- ing Grime’s (1998) mass ratio hypothesis. 'he generality ofdiversityBsta%ility relationshi$s might %e restricted %y the dynamics of a dominant s$ecies (Leps 2004; Polley et al.

2007), especially when the species has features that distinguish it from others that would contribute to stability in highly stochastic systems.'he results were ro%ust when we %ased the analyses on the su%set data from @@ to @@ (Fig. S1 of the Electronic

supplementary material), suggesting that the confounding effects of directional res$onses of vegetation to theremoval treatment on the results were small . However, our results do not necessarily suggest that diversity is unimportant to

community stability. In particular, minor vegetation components such as subdominant and rare species might regulate stability in the longer

term by influencing the recruitment of dominant species (Grime 1998). A clear implication from this study is that community dominance

hierarchies and their changes might be among the important ecological components that need to be considered when managing communities

to maintain ecosystem functioning (Smith and Knapp 2003; Hillebrand et al. 2008; Grman et al. 2010).

Dominant Species stabili$e ecos"stem – not &iversit"

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from theGraduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Societyof a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society ofa$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany at

the University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiroSasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

In contrast, we found a significant $ositive relationshi$ %etween tem$oral sta%ility and the relative a%undance ofdominant s$ecies (Fig. 2f). 'his suggests that the dominant C4 grasses, B. gracilis and B. dactyloides, rather thandiversity itself, regulate community sta%ility . Indeed, the value for the relative a%undance of dominant s$ecies in ourcase corres$onded e=actly to the mean trait value (Garnier et al. 2004) for photosynthetic pathway (C3 or C4). 'he fact thattem$oral sta%ility increased significantly with the relative a%undance of dominant s$ecies6not functionaldiversity , which incorporates species’ dissimilarities as defined by various traits—also supported the importance of dominant species in

stabilizing communities, as suggested by Mokany et al. (2008). The relationships between summed variances, covariances, and abundance

and the relative abundance of dominant species were all negative (Fig. 3c, g, k). Because C4 plant species generally are tolerant to drought



stresses (Sage 2001), the fluctuations in their population abundance under high interannual variability in rainfall are small. In addition, Fair et

al. (1999) reported that B. gracilis produces long-lived genets and can therefore maintain its population in the community because its

occupation of resource space for long periods prevents the recruitment of other species. Thus, the population stability of B. gracilis was

probably reflected in the negative relationships between summed variances and covariances and the relative abundance of dominant species.

However, increased abundance of dominant species did not contribute to increased community abundance (Fig. 3k). Although anincrease in summed a%undances also ma&es it less li&ely that environmental stochasticity will result in lowtem$oral sta%ility (Tilman 1999; Hughes and Roughgarden 2000), the sta%ili>ing effect under$inned %y the negative rela#tionshi$s %etween summed variances and covariances and the a%undance of dominant s$ecies was sufficientlystrong to sta%ili>e communities.

,io&iversit" &oes not lea& to stabilit"

Sasaki an& auenroth% (( # [ Graduate School of +ife Sciences, 'oho&u University. Ph* from theGraduate School of Agricultural and +ife Sciences, 'he University of 'o&yo. 3em%er of the Ecological Societyof a$an, and Winner of the 8est Poster Pri>e in @@? and @@2 at the Annual 3eeting of Ecological Society ofa$an -section( Plant !ommunity and S$ecies *iversity4 B A* [[ Professor at the *e$artment of 8otany atthe University of Wyoming. Ph* in )ange Science from the University of !olorado -:C::C::, *r. 'a&ehiroSasa&i and *r. William 9. +auenroth, /*ominant s$ecies, rather than diversity, regulates tem$oral sta%ility of$lant communities,0 0e#ologia, :-4(?:#2 !S4

We found a significant negative relationshi$ %etween tem$oral sta%ility and s$ecies richness, num%er of rares$ecies, and relative a%undance of rare s$ecies (Fig. 2a, d, h). 'his is counter to the growing %ody of em$irical

evidence that suggests that the tem$oral sta%ility of communities increases with diversity (Tilman 1999; Cottinghamet al. 2001; Valone and Hoffman 2003; Tilman et al. 2006). Many theoretical studies have focused on the portfolio and covariance effects

(see ‘‘Materials and methods’’) in demonstrating how increased diversity can confer increased temporal stability (Tilman 1999; Yachi and

Loreau 1999; Hughes and Roughgarden 2000). However, we found no significant relationshi$s %etween summed variancesand s$ecies richness and num%er of rare s$ecies (Fig. 3a, b), and we found significant positive relationships between summed

covariances and species richness and number of rare species (Fig. 3e, f). either the $ortfolio nor the covariance effectcontri%uted significantly to tem$oral sta%ility in our communities. Rare species that generally exhibit greater temporal

fluctuations than common species should more often exhibit years of zero abundance than common species because of their small population

sizes (Lande 1993; Valone and Schutzenhofer 2007), resulting in synchrony in response to high interannual variability in rainfall. This

probably dampened the expected stabilizing effect of species richness on temporal stability (Yachi and Loreau 1999). Valone and Barber

(2008) also showed that covariances between most pairs of species in natural communities were more often positive than negative, potentially

because of shared responses of coexisting species to fluctuations in a common resource base, pos- sibly driven by climatic fluctuations.

Moreover, the relationship between summed abundance and species richness was not significant (Fig. 3i), suggesting that overyielding was

not important in our communities. A previous study has indicated that functional diversity is a good predictor of the overyielding effect ofspecies richness (Griffin et al. 2009). 5ur findings suggest that, although we do not &now the e=$licit mechanism, thelac& of change in functional diversity, des$ite the increase in s$ecies rich# ness resulting from the removal ofdominant s$ecies, might e=$lain the a%sence of an overyielding effect. 'hus, there were no o$erationalsta%ili>ing effects of greater diversityT rather, greater s$ecies richness su$$orted %y an increase in the num%erof rare s$ecies desta%ili>ed the communities.

Traits &etermine 4cos"stem stabilit"% not Diversit"

:okani% 8-School of Botany and Zoology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (2008, KarelMokany, Julian Ash and Stephen Roxburgh, “Functional identity is more important than diversity in influencing ecosystem processes in a

temperate native grassland,” Journal of Ecology 2008, 96, 884–893 - British Ecological Society CS)

5ur results indicate that the mass ratio hy$othesis -Grime :;;24 $rovides a more a$$ro$riate framewor& fore=$laining how the %iota influences &ey ecosystem $rocesses in com$arison to the diversity hy$othesis , for thenative grassland studied. 3ean trait values %est e=$lained variation in five of the eight ecosystem $rocesses-'a%le a,%T Fig. :4, su$$orting Grime7s -:;;24 hy$othesis that it is the traits of the most a%undant s$ecies

which largely determine ecosystem $rocesses. 5ur results corres$ond with $revious research demonstratingthe $ower of mean trait values to e=$lain variation in &ey ecosystem $rocesses -Garnier et al. @@<T ile et al.@@4.'he trait#%ased functional diversity indices -es$ecially F*, F*K and F*var4 also $erformed well, oftena$$roaching and occasionally e=ceeding mean trait values in their e=$lanatory $ower -'a%le a,%4. 3ostnota%le of the functional diversity indices was F*var -3ason et al. @@4, which e=$lained more variation thanany other diversity measure for seven of the eight ecosystem $rocesses, and had the highest r values of all the



diversityCtrait indices for three of the ecosystem $rocesses -green shoot %iomass, root %iomass, soil moisture4-'a%le a,%4. Functional diversity indices which weigh the traits of s$ecies %y the a%undances of those s$ecies-namely F)5, F*K and F*var4 are essentially fusing elements of %oth the diversity hy$othesis and the massratio hy$othesis. m$licit in these indices is the assum$tion that the diversity of traits is im$ortant, %ut isrelative to the a%undances of the s$ecies $ossessing those traits -)icotta @@R4. 'he fact that these diversitymeasures -F)5, F*K, F*var4 tend to $erform intermediately %etween the $ure diversity indices - e.g. s$eciesrichness4 and mean trait values su$$orts our suggestion that it is the traits of the a%undant s$ecies that aremost im$ortant in influencing ecosystem $rocesses.

Diversit" has minimal effect on ecos"stems:okani et al/% 8-School of Botany and Zoology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (2008,Karel Mokany, Julian Ash and Stephen Roxburgh, “Functional identity is more important than diversity in influencing ecosystem

processes in a temperate native grassland,” Journal of Ecology 2008, 96, 884–893 - British Ecological Society CS)

In contrast, traditional measures of community diversity (i.e. richness, evenness, Simpson’s diversity) generally e=$lained very little variation in ecosystem $rocesses (Fig. 1; Table 2a,b4. 5f $articular interest are the wea& relationshi$s %etween s$ecies richness and ecosystem $rocesses. Species richness has been a core focus of most early studies examining the

interaction between biodiversity and ecosystem processes, with much empirical research and mechanistic theory devoted to understanding how the

number of species in a community may influence ecosystem processes (Schmid 2002; Hooper et al. 2005). 'he wea& relationshi$s weo%served %etween richness and ecosystem $rocesses suggest that the num%er of s$ecies $resent in acommunity is li&ely to have little direct im$act on ecosystem $rocesses, and that changes in the identity and

a%undance of the most dominant s$ecies will %e of far greater im$ortance.

Diversit" can harm ecos"stem process

:okani et al/% 8-School of Botany and Zoology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (2008,Karel Mokany, Julian Ash and Stephen Roxburgh, “Functional identity is more important than diversity in influencing ecosystem

processes in a temperate native grassland,” Journal of Ecology 2008, 96, 884–893 - British Ecological Society CS)

nterestingly, many of the significant interactions %etween diversityCtrait indices and ecosystem $rocesses werenegative relationshi$s -Fig. :T 'a%le %4. For mean trait values, negative relationshi$s merely indicate thatgreater ecosystem $rocesses are associated with the dominance of s$ecies with lower values for a trait. ncontrast, negative relationshi$s %etween functional diversity and ecosystem $rocesses indicate that functionaldiversity of certain traits has a negative im$act on ecosystem $rocesses. A relevant e=am$le is for root %iomass,

which was negatively related to functional diversity -F*var4 of root ( shoot ratios and )*3! -'a%le %4. 'hisresult suggests that increasing diversity of these traits reduces root %iomass, with high root %iomass li&ely to %eachieved %y a less diverse community with most s$ecies $ossessing large root ( shoot ratios and high )*3!.egative relationshi$s %etween functional diversity and ecosystem $rocesses are often mechanistically sensi%le-8engtsson :;;24, yet they have %een infreMuently re$orted %y $revious studies -8alvanera et al. @@4. Wesuggest that the situations in which functional diversity -or com$lementarity4 acts to increase ecosystem$rocesses are li&ely to %e highly de$endent on the ty$e of ecosystem $rocess and the $articular functional traits

%eing considered. For some functional traits, an ecosystem $rocess may increase with functional diversity, while for other traits, the greatest level of ecosystem $rocess may %e achieved %y all s$ecies $ossessing a$articular trait value. 'he im$ortance of com$lementarity as a mechanism is therefore li&ely to %e de$endenton the situation %eing considered.

Dominant species are more important than ,io&iversit":okani% 8-School of Botany and Zoology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (2008, KarelMokany, Julian Ash and Stephen Roxburgh, “Functional identity is more important than diversity in influencing ecosystem processes in a

temperate native grassland,” Journal of Ecology 2008, 96, 884–893 - British Ecological Society CS)

n conclusion, the results from our study suggest that the traits of the dominant s$ecies are of $rimaryim$ortance in determining the effect of the %iota on ecosystem $rocesses, su$$orting Grime7s -:;;24 mass ratiohy$othesis. Functional diversity was also im$ortant in some instances, indicating that com$lementarity mayinfluence ecosystem $rocesses, %ut not always $ositively. n contrast, we found s$ecies richness to %e relatively$oor at e=$laining variation in ecosystem $rocesses. 'he results we $resent suggest that changes in community



dominance hierarchies deserve the greatest attention when managing communities for the maintenance ofecosystem $rocesses.



Disease

:omentum chan'in' – &iseases can be eliminate&/<aulson% (( B senior writer for Humanos$here and P) 'om Paulson, %logger for Humanos$here and senior writer for ational Pu%lic )adioT /Which four diseases face total eradicationO 8ill Foege $redictse=tension of small$o= successT0 $u%lished C2C@::T htt$(CChumanos$here.&$lu.orgC@::C@C%ill#foege#on#disease#eradication#on#the#worldCT ayX

Small$o= was, until today, the only disease that had ever %een eradicated from the $lanet. 'he United ations todaydeclared that rinder$est, a cattle disease that when $revalent had $rofound adverse im$act on humanity, is now the second disease to

have %een eradicated. 8ill Foege, one of our local %oys made good, is a %ig fan of disease eradication. Foege is the world#renowned $hysician who figured out the strategy that succeeded in wi$ing out small$o=. He is featured in an interview

on disease eradication on P)7s 'he World today /How to 9ill a 9ller *isease.0 Here7s a story did almost a year ago a%out Foege on the @thanniversary of the eradication of small$o=. Jou may notice that P) used the same $hoto 6 a $hoto too& of 8ill in !olville, Eastern Washington, wherehe grew u$. Foege, a former chief of the U.S. !enters for *isease !ontrol and now a senior adviser to the 8ill Q 3elinda Gates Foundation, has written afascinating %oo& on the glo%al cam$aign to eradicate small$o= called /House on Fire.0 5n P), he $redicted that four more diseases will %e eradicated

soon. / thin& may%e si= diseases will %e eradicated %efore die,0 said Foege, listing the ne=t four as $olio, guinea worm, measles and onchocerciasis -river %lindness4. What a%out malariaO /3alaria may ta&e a little longer Z %ut we need to

try to eradicate malaria and 7m very o$timistic a%out it,0 he said.

Impacts of &isease eBa''erate& – not enou'h momentum to kill humanit"/

in&% (( – $olicy director at the ew America Foundation3ichael +ind, $olicy director of the ew America Foundations Economic Growth ProgramT /So +ong, !hic&en +ittleT0 $u%lished in Foreign Policy,3archCA$ril @::T htt$(CCwww.foreign$olicy.comCarticlesC@::C@CCsoDlongDchic&enDlittleO$age@,2T ayX

'heres nothing li&e a good $lague to get "ournalists and $undits in a fren>y. Although the threat of glo%al $andemics isreal, its all too often e=aggerated. n the last few years, the world has e=$erienced two such $andemics, the avian flu

-HR:4 and swine flu -H::4. 8oth fell far short of the a$ocaly$tic vision of a new 8lac& *eath cutting huge swaths ofmortality with its remorseless scythe. 5ut of a glo%al $o$ulation of more than %illion $eo$le, 2,?2 are estimated to have died from swine flu, @ from

avian flu. And yet it was not "ust the 88! ominously informing us that Ithe deadly swine flu Z cannot %econtained.I +i&e warnings a%out the $roliferation of nuclear wea$ons, the good done %y mo%ili>ing $eo$le toaddress the $ro%lem must %e weighed against the danger of a$ocaly$se fatigue on the $art of a $u%lic su%"ectedto endless !hic&en +ittle scares.

,o&ies cant sprea& &isease – infection will be limite&/Ran'e I:D% X()ange 3*, /*ead 8odies *o ot S$read *iseaseT0 :C:RC@:@T htt$(CCrangelmd.comC@:@C@:Cdead#%odies#do#not#s$read#diseaseCT ayX Jou hear it after every natural disaster that causes large loss of life and the massive earthMua&e in Haiti this wee& has %een no e=ce$tion( *ead %odies

s$read disease. Well, no, not e=actly. 'he short answer is that cor$ses are not an infection ris& for diseases they didn7t already have. Part

of the myth li&ely comes from mass deaths during e$idemics such as the %u%onic $lague -caused %y the %acteria Jersinia $estis4 or 'u%urculosis -'84.

nfected %odies can remain a $otential source of infection for a short time after death %ut as is the case with infected live $atients, transmissionreMuires direct contact with infectious tissue or %ody fluids. n general, this would only a$$ly to those tas&ed with removal, storageand %urial of the %odies and universal $recautions should %e ta&en when ever handing cor$ses, tissue, or %ody fluids. '8 is a $articular $ro%lem as it can %e transmitted via areosoli>ed res$iratory dro$lets either from o$ening the chest cavity -during auto$sy or from initial severe trauma4 or even fromcom$ression of the chest while moving the %ody. Precautions should %e ta&en against air%orne diseases such as '8 if sus$icion is high %ut even in the

third world the $revalence of '8 is only a%out :N with far fewer having active $ulmonary diseases at any given time. 'he li&elihood that acluster of %odies would have '8 is e=tremely low unless something highly unusual ha$$ened such as a

sanitarium colla$sing or %urning to the ground. Unless there is direct or e=tensive contact without $ro$er$recautions with a recently deceased and infected %ody, the odds of direct transmission are e=tremely low. n the

famous case of early %iological warfare that occurred in :< when the 'artars %esieged the city of 9affa and cata$ulted the %odies of $lague victimsacross the walls, the transmission of $lague was li&ely not the result of contact with these %odies %ut rather from contact with fleas or flea#infested rats

on the %odies or through the usual s$read of the $lague through the $o$ulation during this time. And the chances that any one cor$se froma natural disaster has an active communica%le disease is no greater than that of the general $o$ulation. 'he other$art of the myth li&ely comes from the decom$osition of %odies over time. f not %uried, cremated, or otherwise $ro$erly dis$osed of, %odies undergo$utrefaction caused %y common %acteria that usually reside in the %owel, on the s&in, or in the environment. 'hese %acteria assist and $artici$ate in the %rea& down the tissues of the cadaver -$utrefaction is $revented %y em%alming4 and cause horrific changes. After several days the s&in %egins to turn agreenish color in large areas from the %rea&down of iron containing %lood cells. 'he %rea& down of tissues and internal organs %y %acterial meta%olismcreates large amounts of gas which is very foul smelling and causes the cor$se to %loat and eventually ru$ture after which the tissue and internal organs

liMuefy. 8ut as horri%le as this $rocess is, it is not a source either of the incu%ation or s$read of disease and for all $ractical$ur$oses, it is not harmful to others -two %rea&down chemicals $utrescine -:,<#diamino%utane4 and cadaverine -:,R#$entanediamine4 are

res$onsi%le for the sic&eningly sweet smell of decom$osition and are to=ic %ut only if swallowed in large doses and 7m not going there4.

http://humanosphere.kplu.org/2011/06/bill-foege-on-disease-eradication-on-the-world/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/28/health/28rinderpest.html

http://www.world-science.org/forum/how-to-kill-a-killer-disease-smallpox-foege/

http://humanosphere.kplu.org/2010/08/how-smallpox-got-beat-why-it-matters/


http://www.amazon.com/House-Fire-Eradicate-Smallpox-California/dp/0520268369/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1309290994&sr=8-1-spell

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/so_long_chicken_little?page=0,8

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8022437.stm

http://rangelmd.com/2010/01/dead-bodies-do-not-spread-disease/


http://humanosphere.kplu.org/2011/06/bill-foege-on-disease-eradication-on-the-world/

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/28/health/28rinderpest.html

http://www.world-science.org/forum/how-to-kill-a-killer-disease-smallpox-foege/



http://www.amazon.com/House-Fire-Eradicate-Smallpox-California/dp/0520268369/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1309290994&sr=8-1-spell

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/so_long_chicken_little?page=0,8

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8022437.stm





:alaria vaccine to be in action in 5 "ears/!armiachel 7:@ B columnist for ewswee& 3ary !armiachel, columnist for ewswee&T /Halting the Worlds 3ost +ethal Parasite( mmuni>ing3osMuitoes and 5ther I!ra>yI Antimalaria deasT0 $u%lished ::CC@:@Thtt$(CCwww.scientificamerican.comCarticle.cfmOidhalting#the#worlds#most#lethal#$arasiteT ayX)ight now , somewhere in the world6in a $etri dish in 8altimore, may%e, or in the salivary glands of a la%oratory#%red mosMuito in Seattle, or in the

%loodstream of a villager in Ghana6resides a chemical com$ound that could hel$ eradicate human history7s %iggest&iller. Scientists have many $romising malaria vaccine candidates in the wor&s, and for the first time one has

reached advanced human trials. f it or another candidate is even $artly effective in $eo$le, it could save the lives of millions of

children and $regnant women. t would %e the only vaccine yet develo$ed against a human $arasite, an achievement of o%el cali%er. And it could, inits first#generation form, %e distri%uted in Africa as soon as @:R. /f all goes well, five years from today, a vaccine could start %eing im$lemented in a wide way in si=# to :#wee&#old children,0 says oe !ohen, a scientist who is leading some of the most $romising research. /t is afantastic achievement. We are all very $roud of that.0 'his is an e=traordinary moment for malaria vaccine research. So why isn7t )egina )a%inovichsinging from the roofto$sO n 8rief( accines against malaria have encountered re$eated failures. ew technological a$$roaches have revived the $ushfor an agent that would $rovide lifelong immunity. +ate#stage clinical trials will finish this winter on a vaccine that has %een under develo$ment since the

:;2@s. t could reduce cases of the most lethal form of malaria %y half. Even as this wor& moves forward, researchers are$roceeding with other strategies for new vaccines, such as a wea&ened form of the $arasite that is cultured inmosMuitoes. 8ecause malaria has %een so hard to fight in the $ast, researchers must moderate outsi>e e=$ectations to &ee$ ho$es from %eing dashed

yet another time if new vaccine candidates fail.

)anotech will prevent eBtinction from &isease/CR)% X8 B anotech thin& tan& !enter for )es$onsi%le anotechnologyT /3edical 8enefits of 3olecular 3anufacturingT0 $u%lished @@2 in!) )esearch( 5verview of !urrent FindingsT htt$(CCwww.crnano.orgCmedical.htmT ayXew diseases will %e sto$$ed Muic&ly. ew diseases continue to %e a threat to the human race. aturally occurring diseases could %e

far worse than SA)S, and an engineered disease could conceiva%ly wi$e out most of the human race. t will %e increasingly im$ortant tohave a technology %ase that can detect new diseases even %efore sym$toms a$$ear, and create a cure in amatter of days. 33 will ena%le "ust such a ra$id res$onse. With com$lete genomes and $roteomes for humans and for all &nown

$athogens, $lus chea$, highly $arallel *A and $rotein analysis and sufficient com$uter resources, it will %e $ossi%le to s$ot any new$athogen almost immediately . -'here is already a $ro"ect under way to seMuence the *A of every organism in the Sargasso Sea.4 !uring anew infectious disease will reMuire some method of detecting and sto$$ing the $athogen. )o%ert Freitas has descri%ed over a do>en nanotechnological

ways to disa%le or destroy $athogens. *iagnosis and treatment may %e semi#automated. 'he $ractice of medicine today involves a lotof uncertainty. *octors must guess what condition a $atient has, and further guess how %est to treat it without u$setting the rest of the %odys systems.

8y contrast, when $athogens and chemical im%alances can %e directly detected, many conditions will %e treata%le with no uncertainty, allowing the use of com$uter#selected treatment in common cases. 'his may further reduce the cos

of medical care, although doctors, regulatory agencies, or the $atients themselves may resist the $ractice initially. Health will im$rove andlifes$ans increase. Health im$rovement and life e=tension do not de$end directly on molecular manufacturing, %ut it will certainly ma&e themaccessi%le to more $eo$le. Any treatment that can %e automated can %e a$$lied to any num%er of $eo$le at low cost. Efficient research will s$eed thedevelo$ment of cures for com$le= $ro%lems such as cancer and aging. ew thera$eutic techniMues will allow the treatment of more ty$es of diseases.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=halting-the-worlds-most-lethal-parasite

http://www.crnano.org/medical.htm

http://www.enn.com/news/2003-04-29/s_4148.asp

http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/10.4.htm

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=halting-the-worlds-most-lethal-parasite

http://www.crnano.org/medical.htm

http://www.enn.com/news/2003-04-29/s_4148.asp

http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/10.4.htm



Asteroi&s

Statistics prove – "oure an i&iot if "ou think asteroi&s will kill us/4veritt X8ames Everitt, energy and environment organi>er for Pic&ens PlanT /f an asteroid hit the earthO0 $u%lished :C@C@@2Thtt$(CC$ush.$ic&ens$lan.comCvideoC:2?@<(ideo(:;:R2:T ayX

A com$uter video circulating the internet has re&indled fears that an asteroid will hit Earth and send man&ind the way of the %rontosaurus. 8ased onASA $ro"ections, there is indeed a chance that such an asteroid will im$act Earth in the ne=t year. It is ( in3%7(8%93 'his num%er is derived from ASA calculations of the li&elihood of a stri&e %y any one of the si=

su%stantial ear#Earth 5%"ects -E5s4 whose current course could intersect our $lanets in @@;. 'he most li&ely of the %unch, an E5 named@@2 A5::, alone has a : in <,@@@,@@@ chance of im$acting Earth. n other words, theres a ;;.;;;;?RN chance the thing will missus. 8y com$arison, in the new year, %ased on recent ational Safety !ouncil data, chances are less that you will %e &illed %y anasteroid than %y the following( 3otor vehicle accident( : in ,R; E=$osure to no=ious su%stances( : in :,RR< Assault %y firearm( : in

<,@@R Accidental drowning( : in 2,??? E=$osure to smo&e, fire or flames( : in ;,?<R E=$osure to forces of nature -lightning, flood, storms,

etc.4( : in :,@?R ;allin' out of be& or off other furniture( : in ;,2:; !ho&ing on food( : in <,:?; Air and s$ace trans$ort accidents(

: in R@,RR< E=$osure to electric current, radiation, tem$erature, and $ressure( : in ?@R,;; 8eing %itten, stung or crushed %yanother $erson or animal( : in :,2<:,R; !hances Joull 8e 9illed %y an Asteroid in @@;Y !onclusion( t would %e statisticallyunwise to sell your home -your chances of selling it aside4 and use the $roceeds for a $re#asteroid s$lurge in the tro$ics.

Alternatively, if you are considering fleeing Earth, you are more li&ely to die %y s$acecraft accident than %yasteroid. And if you do so anyway, given the chance of %eing %itten, stung or crushed %y another $erson oranimal, your chances are even worse if you %ring com$any.

)o threat to asteroi&s – none on course% an& can be &eflecte& in time/)ASA% !! B ational Aeronautics and S$ace Administrationational Aeronautics and S$ace AdministrationT /Star!hild Kuestion of the 3onth for uly :;;;T0htt$(CCstarchild.gsfc.nasa.govCdocsCStar!hildCMuestionsCMuestion::.htmlT ayX A num%er of recent movies have %een a%out this su%"ect. t is im$ortant to remem%er that they are "ust movies and often times do not re$resent good ortrue science. Sometimes, however, there is a tiny seed of truth %ehind a movie, although it may %e hard to tell what is true and what is fiction. 'his is the

case for the movies a%out asteroids hitting the Earth. +et us say right away that at this moment, we &now of nothing currently on acollision course with Earth. +ast year, it was announced in the news that an asteroid was on a collision course withEarth and would hit in the year @2. We now &now that the calculations were in error and that asteroid will miss theEarth com$letely. Jou can read more a%out this at htt$(CCim$act.arc.nasa.govCnewsDdetail.cfmO*@. 9ee$ in mind that the Earth has %een hit %efore %y asteroids and will %e again someday. We dont &now when, %ut we do &now it is not in the immediate future. Why are the chances of us %einghit smallO 5ur solar system is very %ig com$ared to the si>e of the Earth, which means that the chance that the Earth will %e hit %y another solar systemo%"ect such as an asteroid is very small. 5nce in awhile, it ha$$ens. 8ut not very often. 'hin& a%out this, most of the asteroids in our solar system arelocated in the asteroid %elt. Jet we have %een a%le to send s$acecraft such as 9oyager : and :: , as well as others, through this %elt without any $ro%lems.

WhyO 'here is more Iem$ty s$aceI in the %elt than asteroidsY How often do we e=$ect the Earth to %e hitO 'he asteroids ca$a%le of causing aglo%al disaster if they hit the Earth are e=tremely rare. 'hey $ro%a%ly would need to %e a%out a &ilometer or more in diameter. Such %odies im$act the Earth only once every :@@,@@@ years on average. 5ther o%"ects of a similar si>e, such as comets, im$act even less freMuently, $erha$s

once every R@@,@@@ years or so. f we discover an o%"ect that will collide with Earths, what could %e done a%out itO f astronomers

find such an o%"ect, there would %e $lenty of time to trac& it, measure its or%it $recisely, and $lan a system fordeflecting it from its current or%ital $ath. There woul& be no 'reat hurr" an& no 'reat panic/ t would %e a

$ro"ect for all the worlds nations to ta&e $art in. 8ecause we will have found it long %efore it actually intersects the Earthsor%it, it $ro%a%ly would ta&e only a small $ush -$erha$s from chemical roc&ets we land on the surface of the asteroid4 to divert itfrom a threatening $ath.

Asteroi&s &i&nt kill the &inosaurs/?lu'er X! B senior writer and former JU science $rofessoreffrey 9luger, senior writer for 'ime 3aga>ine, winner of the 5verseas Press !lu%7s Award for %est re$orting on environmental issues, and former$rofessor of science and "ournalism at JUT /3ay%e an Asteroid *idn7t 9ill the *inosaursT0 $u%lished <C?C@@;Thtt$(CCwww.time.comCtimeChealthCarticleC@,2R;;,:2;<R,@@.htmlT ayX When a scientific $rinci$le is common &nowledge even in grammar school, you &now it has long since crossed the line from theory to esta%lished fact.

'hats the case with dinosaur e=tinction. Some R million years ago 6 as weve all come to &now 6 an asteroid struc& the earth,

sending u$ a cloud that %loc&ed the sun and cooled the $lanet. 'hat, in turn, wi$ed out the dinosaurs and made way for the rise of mammals.'he suddenness with which so many s$ecies vanished after that time always suggested a single cataclysmic event, and the :;?2 discovery of a ::#mile,

R#million#year#old crater off the Jucatn Peninsula near the town of !hic=ulu% seemed to seal the deal. ow, however, a study in the %ournalo& the 4eologi#al So#iety throws all that into Muestion. 'he asteroid im$act and dinosaur e=tinction, say the

authors, may not have %een simultaneous, instead occurring @@,@@@ years a$art. 'hats an eye%lin& in geologic time, %ut it sa relevant eye%lin& all the same 6 one that occurred at "ust the right moment in ancient history to send the e=tinction theory entirely awry. -See $icturesof meteors stri&ing the earth.4 'he controversial $a$er was written %y geoscientists Gerta 9eller of Princeton University and 'hierry Addate of theUniversity of +ausanne, in Swit>erland. 8oth researchers &new that challenging the im$act doctrine would not %e easy. 'he asteroid charged with &illingthe dinosaurs, after all, left more than the !hic=ulu% crater as its calling card. At the same R#million#year de$th, the geologic record reveals that a thinlayer of iridium was de$osited $retty much everywhere in the world. ridium is an element thats rare on Earth %ut common in asteroids, and a fine

http://push.pickensplan.com/video/2187034:Video:1691581

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/27/watch-if-an-asteroid-hit_n_153724.html

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk

http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/questions/question11.html

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#asteroid

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#collison

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=60

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#solar

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level2/glossary_text.html#solar_system

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/solar_system_level1/asteroids.html

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#kilometer

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#comet

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#astronomer

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#orbit

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894225,00.html

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1818757,00.html


http://push.pickensplan.com/video/2187034:Video:1691581

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/27/watch-if-an-asteroid-hit_n_153724.html

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk

http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/questions/question11.html

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#asteroid

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#collison

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=60

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#solar

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level2/glossary_text.html#solar_system

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/solar_system_level1/asteroids.html

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#kilometer

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#comet

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#astronomer

http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/glossary_level1/glossary_text.html#orbit

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894225,00.html





glo%al dusting of the stuff is $recisely what youd e=$ect to find if an asteroid struc& the ground, va$ori>ed on im$act and eventually rained its remains %ac& down. 8elow that iridium layer, the fossil record shows that a riot of s$ecies was thrivingT a%ove it, RN of them went suddenly missing. -)ead

a%out !hinas dinosaur fossils.4 8ut 9eller and Addate worried that we were misreading %oth the geologic and fossilrecords. 'hey conducted surveys at numerous sites in 3e=ico, including a s$ot called El Pen, near the im$act crater. 'hey were es$ecially interested in a @#ft. layer of sediment "ust a%ove the iridium layer. 'hat sediment, they calculate, was laid down at a rate of a%[email protected] in. to :. in. $er thousand years, meaning that all @ feet too& @@,@@@ years to settle into $lace. Analy>ing the fossils at this small site, they countedR distinct s$ecies "ust %elow the iridium layer. 'hen they counted the s$ecies a%ove it. 'he result( the same R. t wasnt until they sam$led @ feet

higher 6 and @@,@@@ years later 6 that they saw the die#offs. I'he mass e=tinction level can %e seen a%ove this interval,I 9eller says. Iot a singles$ecies went e=tinct as a result of the !hic=ulu% im$act.I 9ellers and Addates s$ecies sam$lings are not, of course, conclusive, and$lenty of other surveys since :;?2 do tie the e=tinctions closely to the asteroid. 8ut since the new digs were so close to ground >ero, the immediate s$ecieloss ought to %e have %een 6 if anything 6 greater there than anywhere else in the world. nstead, the animals seemed to esca$e unharmed. 5ther

$aleontologists, however, %elieve that the very $ro=imity of El Pen to the im$act site ma&es the results even less relia%le. EarthMua&es and tsunamisthat resulted from the collision could have wrought havoc on the sedimentary record, causing discrete strata to swirl together and com$letely scram%lingtime lines. 9eller disagrees, $ointing out that the slow accretion of sediment that she and Addate recorded is com$letely inconsistent with a sudden eventli&e a tsunami. -See $ictures of animals in s$ace.4 I'he sandstone com$le= was not de$osited over hours or days,I she says. I*e$osition occurred over a

very long time $eriod.I So if the !hic=ulu% asteroid didnt &ill the dinosaurs, what didO Paleontologists have advancedall manner of other theories over the years, including the a$$earance of land %ridges that allowed differents$ecies to migrate to different continents, %ringing with them diseases to which native s$ecies hadnt develo$edimmunity. 9eller and Addate do not see any reason to stray so far from the $revailing model. Some &ind of

atmos$heric ha>e might indeed have %loc&ed the sun, ma&ing the $lanet too cold for the dinosaurs 6 it "ust didnt have to havecome from an asteroid. )ather, they say, the source might have %een massive volcanoes, li&e the ones that %lew in the*eccan 'ra$s in what is now ndia at "ust the right $oint in history. For the dinosaurs that $erished R million years ago, e=tinction was e=tinction andthe $recise cause was immaterial. 8ut for the %i$edal mammals who were allowed to rise once the %ig li>ards were finally gone, it is a matter of enduringfascination.

)ASAs asteroi& research is biase& to earn more fun&in' an& i'nores ke" science/Davi& X9 B former *irector of )esearch for the ational !ommission on S$ace+eonard *avid, research associate for Secure World Foundation, former consultant to ASA, former *irector of )esearch for the ational !ommissionon S$ace, and Aeros$ace ournalist of the JearT /Fair Warning, *eadly )es$onseT0 $u%lished in Ad Astra -official "ournal of the ational S$ace Society4, ol. :;, um%er , @@?T htt$(CCwww.nss.orgCadastraCvolume:;Cdavid.htmlT ayX

Fact#Finding A$$raisal. +ast year ASA %egan a congressionally mandated, fact#finding a$$raisal of how %est to detect,trac&, catalog and characteri>e near#Earth asteroids and comets. Furthermore, U.S. lawma&ers as&ed the civilian s$aceagency to identify what could %e done to deflect an o%"ect found on course to stri&e our $lanet. 8ac& in late une@@, leading e=$erts from a variety of fields met in ail, !olorado, %rought together under the %anner of the ASA wor&sho$ ear#Earth 5%"ect*etection, !haracteri>ation and 'hreat 3itigation. 'he meeting was a uniMue, idea#gathering event6meant to $rovide lawma&ers with an e=ecuta%le$rogram. !ongress had as&ed ASA, in $art, to use its IuniMue com$etenceI to deal with the $otential ha>ard faced %y Earth from E5s and hel$esta%lish a warning and mitigation strategy. +ast 3arch the ASA re$ort titled Iear#Earth 5%"ect Survey and *eflection Analysis of AlternativesI6a

?#$age data dum$ ta&en from a more than ?@#$age evaluation6landed u$on the des&s of lawma&ers. 5ne &ey suggestion from the re$ort was a way to divert a $otentially ha>ardous o%"ect6la%eled PH5( namely, that nuclear standoff e=$losions were :@ to

:@@ times more effective than the non#nuclear alternatives analy>ed. on#nuclear &inetic im$actors, the re$ort noted, are the most mature a$$roach

and could %e used in some deflectionCmitigation scenarios, es$ecially for E5s that consist of a single small, solid %ody. Wrong, Wrong, Wrong 5neearly res$onder to the re$ort is not too $leased, calling the document re$lete with errors of %oth omission andcommission. IASA did a terri%le technical analysis,I com$lained )ussell I)ustyI Schweic&art, a former A$olloastronaut. Its wrong, wrong, wrong,I he told attendees of this years nternational S$ace *evelo$ment !onference -S*!4 meeting in *allas.Schweic&art is chairman of the 8: Foundation %oard of directors, a confa% of scientists, technologists, astronomers, astronauts and other s$ecialists

dedicated to significantly altering the or%it of an asteroid in a controlled manner %y @:R. I)ight now, $ut ASA in the same category oftechnical accuracy as Hollywood with *ee$ m$act and Armageddon,I Schweic&art noted, referring to those two less#than#factual movies

a%out dealing with E5s on a deadly course with Earth. I'he re$ort as it stands is not valid. The recommen&ations thatthe" ma&e are base& on an eBceptional set of asteroi&s that the" picke& rather than what ismost likel" to be nee&e& to be &eflecte&% Schweic&art said. Its a flawed re$ort.I 'a&ing a $ro#nu&e a$$roach is wrongheaded,Schweic&art said at the S*!. )ather, using e=isting ro%ot im$actor technology as well as a gravity#tractor method of altering the asteroids tra"ectoryever so slightly would give you %oth the oom$h and the $recision that you need to redirect an E5 from an im$act with Earth. In terms of res$onding to

!ongress regarding what $ossi%le alternatives there are, ASA $ic&ed ridiculously im$ro%a%le events...and you end u$ with somethingincredi%ly %ig, li&e a nuclear %last. 'hats not a reasona%le answer. When you are loo&ing at a su$$ly of something, youve got to first loo& at the demandto say whats reMuired. And if you loo& at the demand side, the most li&ely things to ha$$en are much smaller than that...and thats not a way to answerres$onsi%ly to !ongress, in my view,I Schweic&art told Ad Astra. Another Schweic&art gri$e a%out the ASA E5 study is that the s$ace agencys

analysis ma&es the assum$tion that deflecting an a$$roaching E5 consists only of causing it to miss the $lanet at the time of the nominal im$act. 'heanalysis does not account for the fact that there are hundreds of resonant return $oints and associated im$actI&eyholesI located along the $ath of deflection. f a deflection fails to account for these &eyholes, the E5 maymiss the Earth at the time of im$act only to return in a year or two for another im$act. ASAs analysis assumes that thestronger the deflection, the %etter.

Asteroi&s wont hit earth% an& even if the" &o the" wont kill us/,ritt X7 B science writer for +iveScience

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1888548,00.html



http://www.nss.org/adastra/volume19/david2.html




http://www.nss.org/adastra/volume19/david2.html



)o%ert )oy 8ritt, science writer for +iveScienceT /'he 5dds of *yingT0 $u%lished :CC@@RT htt$(CCwww.livescience.comC?2@#odds#dying.html T ayX

Perce$tions of ris& factors can change over time sim$ly %ecause more is learned. 'he chances of an Earth#im$acting asteroid &illing youhave dro$$ed dramatically, for e=am$le, from a%out :#in#@,@@@ in :;;< to something li&e :#in#@@,@@@ or :#in#R@@,@@@ today.

'he new num%ers ## their range reflecting the need for further research ## were offered u$ last wee& %y !lar&

!ha$man of the Southwest )esearch nstitute and *avid 3orrison at ASAs Ames )esearch !enter. Why such a dramaticdowngradeO Active intervention. IA significant $art of it is that we have now discovered, in the last do>en years, a good fraction ofthe largest, most deadly asteroids and found that they wont hit the Earth,I !ha$man told ;i*eS#ien#e. Also, $ro"ectionsof the destruction a large s$ace roc& would cause have %een revised downward a %it. Finally, since Earth is two#thirds water, asteroid ris&s include the $ossi%ility of an im$act#induced tsunami. And !ha$man says asteroid#

generated tsunamis may not %e as deadly as once $resumed.

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