Impact Chicago

Terry MazanyPresident & CEO

Impact Chicago

Jim Lewis, Ph.D.Senior Program Officer

Impact Chicago

Prof. Robert SampsonHarvard University

Prof. Wesley SkoganNorthwestern University

Historic homicide rate in Chicago

Declining crime rates

Violent Crime - per 100,000 residents

Declining violence rates

source: City and Suburban Crime Trends in Metropolitan America, The Brookings Institution

Homicide totals

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Homicide motives

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Shootings & homicides in Chicago

Homicides – Race/ethnicity of victims

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & StabbingsMurder Victims by Race/Ethnicity

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Homicide – Indoor or outdoor

Indoor v. Outdoor Murders

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Homicides – Shootings, stabbings

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Homicide prior arrest - offender

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder Victims with Prior Arrest History

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Homicides cleared

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder Clearances

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Criminal justice system in Illinois

In 2009, more than 125,000 adults were under a form of correctional supervision —including probation, prison or mandatory supervised release—for a felony

conviction in Illinois: almost double the number in 1989.

Source: Illinois Sentencing Police Advisory Council

Prison system overcrowding

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Corrections, John Howard Association

Impact Chicago

Prof. Robert SampsonHarvard University

Prof. Wesley SkoganNorthwestern University

Policing & public safety

Concentration of Violence and Child Well-Being

=

Murder Rate

Source:Sampson, 2012

The Enduring Grip of Disadvantage:Durability of Concentrated Poverty During an Era

of Social Transformation, Chicago Community

Areas, 1960-2000

Source: Sampson 2012

Inequality’s Durable Imprint: Before and after the 2008 Economic Crisis

Source: Sampson, 2012

Source: Sampson, 2012

Not Just About Poverty:Remarkably Persistent Violence Profiles

During a Sharp Secular Decline in Violence

Source: Sampson, 2012

Spatial and macro level processes

Individual characteristics and selection processes

Community Mediating Rates of structure mechanism well-being

Source: Sampson, 2012

Collective Efficacy Theory

Collective Efficacy Predicts Later Homicide Rates (Controlling for time period, concentrated disadvantage, residential stability, population

density, friend/kinship ties, legal/moral cynicism, and prior homicide)

Source: Sampson, 2012

What is the effect of police strategies?

Cure violence (CeaseFire-Chicago) model

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Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University

Policing strategies

Smart Gun Policing• interrupt supply• deter possession• reduce public gun carrying• tough responses to gun use• reduce demand for guns• address conditions that foster gun carrying and use

Smart Gang Policing• targeting violent groups and high-risk individuals

Smart Community Oriented Policing• responsive to community concerns and priorities • assist in norm building by gaining respect and confidence• assist in community mobilization

Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University

Building public confidence & respect

Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University

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Afraid to Go Out by Home Ownership

rentershome owners

19931994

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2003

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Quality of Service Index

WhitesBlacksLatinos

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Police Responsiveness

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Quality of Service

Assist in community mobilization

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Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University

Declining crime rates

Violent Crime - per 100,000 residents

How important is trust of the police for reducing crime?

photo credit: right, John J. Kim / AP

How do gangs affect the homicide and crime rates?

Would stronger gun control reduce homicides?

Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

Most shootings happen in low-income neighborhoods

How does poverty contribute to crime rates?

photo credit: Flickr member Zol87

Have the changing demographics of Chicago changed crime?

Why did the murder rate rise in 2012?

source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department

What works?

•Patrol strategies

•Hardened targets - security

•Hot spot arrests

•Broken windows

•Gang interventions

•Gun control

•Social/Emotional training

photo credit: top, Chronicle/Lance Iversen

Has policing affected homicide levels?

source: Chicago Justice Project

Does incarceration reduce crime?

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Corrections, John Howard Association

In conversation

Prof. Robert SampsonHarvard University

Prof. Wesley SkoganNorthwestern University

Moderator: Jim Lewis, Ph.D.

Senior Program Officer

Go deeper

Today’s presentation can be viewed online:www.cct.org/impactchicago

For more information about today’s topic:contact Jim Lewis at 312.616.8000 ext. 158

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Impact Chicago

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