Impact Calc Exercise

8/21/2019 Impact Calc Exercise

1/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

ACCIDENTAL LAUNCH

Accidental Launc cau!e! e"tincti#n

P$ NE%S%I$E &' [“NEJM STUDY WARNS OF INCREASING RISK OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR ATTACK; OVER 6.8MILLION IMMEDIATE U.S. DEATHS POSSIBLE, APR !", LN#

D$%&'($ ()$ $*+ - ()$ C+ W/0, A(e)ican and $u!!ian nuclea) a)!enal! )e(ain #n i*+ale)t, Tat- .en c#(/ined

.it !i*niicant dete)i#)ati#n in $u!!ian c#nt)#l !!te(!- )#duce! a *)#.in* li3eli##d # an 4accidental4

nuclea) attac3- in .ic (#)e tan !i" (illi#n A(e)ican5%# 1$*, 21$*, /*+ 3)'+0$* 34+ +'$, /330+'*5 ( / %(4+ &47'%)$+ '* ()$ A&0' 9 N$2 E*5/*+ J40*/ - M$+'3'*$. T)$ /4()0%, &)%'3'/*%, &47'3 )$/() &0-$%%'*/%, /*+ *43$/0 $:&$0(%, 2' )+ &0$%% 3*-$0$*3$% * A&0' !" '* %$$* U.S. C'('$%, '*34+'*5 B%(*, 7$%$$3)'*5 ()$ U.S. G$0*1$*( ( %$$< / 7'/($0/ /50$$1$*( 2'() ()$

R4%%'/*% ()/( 24+ (/@A33'+$*(/@ N43$/0 W/0? A P%(=C+ W/0 A%%$%%1$*(,> /*+

'*($0*'%( /( B$() I%0/$ D$/3*$%% M$+'3/ C$*($0. H'% %(4+ 3'($% *41$04% '*%(/*3$% - @70 F002 /++%, >W$ /0$ 3/'*5 4&* ()$ 1/0% /*+ 3'('$*% - / U.S.

/*+ R4%%'/* 3'('$% ( '* 4% '* /&&$/'*5 ( P0$%'+$*(% B' C'*(* /*+ B0'% Y$(%'* ( $*+ ()'% ()0$/( 7 (/ A %(0'2/0 5/1$%> '( '% &/4%'7$ tat !uc an attac3 c#uld )#9#3e a nuclea)

c#unte)attac3 tat c#uld t)i**e) ull+!cale nuclea) .a) .it /illi#n! # ca!ualtie! .#)ld.ide,


2/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

BIODI:E$SITY

L#!! # /i#di9e)!it .ill lead t# e"tincti#n ; *l#/al ec#!!te(! a)e )eliant #n eac #te)

B043$ E. T#nn, U07/* P/**'*5 P0- T$**$%%$$, N$17$0 2007, F4(40$% . ", *. ", “F4(40$% S4%(/'*/7''(,

*T)$ -'0%( &0'*3'&$ '% ()$ 1%( '1&0(/*( 7$3/4%$ ea)t+lie i! needed t# !u#)t ea)t+lie, Ec#!!te(! a)e c#(#!ed #

c#untle!! !ecie! tat a)e (utuall deendent u#n eac #te) #) nut)ient! di)ectl a! ##d #) a! /+

)#duct! # ea)t+lie $.5., /% 3/07* +':'+$ /*+ :5$*. I ()$ /i#di9e)!it # an ec#!!te( i! %47%(/*('/

c#()#(i!ed, ()$* te enti)e !!te( c#uld c#lla!e +4$ ( +$%(043('$ *$5/('$ *4(0'$*( 33$ -$$+7/3< $--$3(%. I $*45)

ec#!!te(! c#lla!e .#)ld.ide, ()$* te ca!cadin* i(act #n *l#/al nut)ient ccle! c#uld lead t#

cata!t)#ic !ecie! e"tincti#n. T)4%, t# en!u)e ()$ !u)9i9al - $/0()='-$ '*( ()$ +'%(/*( -4(40$ ()$ $/0()@% /i#di9e)!it

(u!t /e )#tected.

!


3/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

BIOTE$$O$

BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM RISKS ETINCTION

J)* D. S($'*70$**$0, B0B'5'3/ 2$/&*%? / &/54$ 4&* / )4%$%,> W'*($0, I*-T0/3#

A()45) )41/* &/()5$*% /0$ -($* 41&$+ 2'() *43$/0 $:&%'$% /*+ $()/ 3)$1'3/% /% &($*('/ 2$/&*%- 1/%% +$%(043('*, ()$0$ '% /* 7'4%, -4*+/1$*(/ '1&0(/*( +'--$0$*3$? P/()5$*% /0$ /'$, 2$/&*% /0$

*(. N43$/0 /*+ 3)$1'3/ 2$/&*% + *( 0$&0+43$ ()$1%$$% /*+ + *( '*+$&$*+$*( $*5/5$ '* /+/&('$

7$)/'0; &/()5$*% + 7() - ()$%$ ()'*5%. T)/( +$3$&('$ %'1&$ 7%$0/('* )/% '11$*%$ '1&'3/('*%.

T)$ 4%$ - / 1/*4-/3(40$+ 2$/&* '% / %'*54/0 $$*(. M%( - ()$ +/1/5$ 3340% '11$+'/($. T)$ /-($0$--$3(%,2)/($$0 ()$ 1/ 7$, +$3/ 0/&'+ $0 ('1$ /*+ +'%(/*3$ '* / 0$/%*/7 &0$+'3(/7$ 1/**$0. E$* 7$-0$ /

*43$/0 2/0)$/+ '% +$(*/($+, -0 '*%(/*3$, '( '% &%%'7$ ( $%('1/($ ()$ $:($*( - ()$ %47%$4$*( +/1/5$ /*+ ()$

'


4/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

DEHUMANIualit #

lie and te a/)ic # ci9ili=ed !#ciet i! /e#nd calculati#n. F0 ()/( 0$/%* ti! !ic3ne!! # te !#ul (i*t .ell

/e called te Fit H#)!e1/* # te A#cal!e.... Beind te *en#cide # te #l#cau!t la a deu(ani=ed

t#u*t; 7$*$/() ()$ 1$*('3'+$ - +$'/*(% /*+ +'%%'+$*(%... '* ()$ 343


5/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

DEMOC$ACY

De(#c)ac !#l9e! e"tincti#n,

Dia(#nd +&? L/00 D'/1*+, H$0 I*%('(4('*, S(/*-0+ U*'$0%'(, D$3$17$0, PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN THE ""9S,"", &. )((&?222.3/0*$5'$.05%47&47%+$/++'/10&(.)(1

Nuclea)- ce(ical and /i#l#*ical .ea#n! c#ntinue t# )#lie)ate, Te 9e) !#u)ce # lie #n Ea)t- te *l#/al

ec#!!te(- aea)! inc)ea!in*l endan*e)ed, M#!t # te!e ne. /*+ 4*3*$*('*/ t)eat! t# !ecu)it a)e

a!!#ciated .it #) a**)a9ated / te 2$/3$/*%$> ()$'0 2* &&4/('*%, /*+ ()$ /0$ 143)

$%% '


6/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

DISEASE

Uncec3ed di!ea!e cau!e! u(an e"tincti#n

S#ut Cina M#)nin* P#!t- =="&@ D0. B$* A70/)/1 “3/$+ >*$ - ()$ 99 50$/($%( 1'*+% '* )'%(0> 7 %4&$0=I %3'$( M$*%/ /*+ 2*$0 - “T0*(=7/%$+ 7'($3)*5 31&/*, S(043(40$+ B'5'3/% I*3

/330+'*5 ( %/1$ /0('3$ D$%&'($ ()$ '1&0(/*3$ - ()$ +'%3$0 - ()$ >-/3''(/('*5> 3$, '( '% *( 2)/( D0 B$*=A70/)/1 2/*(% ( (/< /74(. T)$0$ '% / 143) 10$ &0$%%'*5 1$+'3/ 30'%'% /( )/*+ = *$ )$ 7$'$$% ()$ 20+ 14%( 7$ /$0($+ (? ()$ &%%'7''( - / '04% +$/+'$0 ()/* HIV. I- ()'% 1/('& - ()$ '3$7$05>. T2 +$3/+$% - '*($*%'$ %(4+ /*+ 0$%$/03) '* ()$ -'$+ - '05 )/$ 3*'*3$+ )'1 - *$ ()'*5? '* &/3$ -

*/(40/ /*+ 1/*=1/+$ +'%/%($0% 0 *43$/0 2/0-/0$, u(anit c#uld ace e"tincti#n /ecau!e # a !in*le 9i)u!- deadlie)

tan HI:, 4An ai)/#)ne 9i)u! i! a li9el- c#(le" and dan*e)#u! #)*ani!(,> )$ %/'+. >It can c#(e )#( a

)a)e ani(al #) )#( an.e)e and can (utate c#n!tantl. I- ()$0$ '% * 340$, '( /--$3(% *$ &$0%* /*+ ()$* ()$0$ '% / 3)/'*0$/3('* /*+ '( '% 4*%(&&/7$. I( '% / (0/5$+ 2/'('*5 ( )/&&$*.> T)/( 1/ %4*+ '. D0 B$*=A70/)/1 %/'+? >N/(40$ '%*@( 7$*'5*. T)$ %40'/ - ()$ )41/*

%&$3'$% '% *( / &0$0+/'*$+ $4('*/0 &050/11$. A/undant !#u)ce! # *enetic 9a)iati#n e"i!t #) 9i)u!e! t# lea)n

#. t# (utate and e9ade te i((une !!te(,> H$ 3'($% ()$ "68 H*5 K*5 -4 4(70$/< /% /* $:/1&$ - )2 '04%$% )/$4(%1/0($+ )41/* '*($'5$*3$. A*+ /% *$2 >1$5/=3'('$%> /0$ 7$'*5 +$$&$+ '* ()$ T)'0+ W0+ /*+ 0/'*-0$%(% /0$ +$%(0$+, +'%$/%$=

3/00'*5 /*'1/% /*+ '*%$3(% /0$ -03$+ '*( /0$/% - )41/* )/7'(/('*. >T)'% 0/'%$% ()$ $0 0$/ &%%'7''( ()/( $()/, 1%($0'4% '04%$%

24+, -0 ()$ -'0%( ('1$, '*-$3( )41/*'( /( / /05$ %3/$ /*+ '1&$0' ()$ %40'/ - ()$ )41/* 0/3$,> )$ %/'+.

6


7/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

ECONOMY

NUCLEA$ %A$,

Mead &, [!, W/($0 R4%%$, H$*0 A. K'%%'*5$0 S$*'0 F$2 '* U.S. F0$'5* P'3 /( ()$ C4*3' * F0$'5* R$/('*%, O* M/


8/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

ENDOC$INE DIS$UPTION

End#c)ine di!)uti#n cau!e! e"tincti#n ; )e9ent! )e)#ducti#n

Cali#)nian! F#) Alte)nati9e! T# T#"ic!- 200, “T:'3 P$%('3'+$%,

)((&?222./($0*/('$%!(:'3%.05(:'3&$%('3'+$%.)(1 , /33$%%$+ "=!P$%('3'+$% , %43) /% 0/'*, 1$(/1 %+'41, %'1/'*$ 0 :-40-$*, 2)'3) /70/(0 %(4+'$% %)2 /--$3( 7+ /*+ 7+=-01'*5

('%%4$%, 1/ 7$ $%&$3'/ +/*5$04% -0 &$0%*% 2'() '*)$0'($+ 7+ /7*01/'('$% 0 /34'0$+ 7+ +'%$/%$%. E$* %4-40, 2)'3) '%3*%'+$0$+ 0$/('$ 2 '* (:'3'(, 3/* 7$ ()0$/($*'*5 ( /* /%()1/('3. Q 3)$1'3/ '*($0/3('*% %43) /% %*$05'%1 /*+ ()$0 $--$3(% ()/(/0$ 30$/($+ /% / 0$%4( - 1':'*5 3)$1'3/% (5$()$0. R$%$/03) * 3)$1'3/ 7$*+% '


9/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

FOOD P$ICES

F##d !#)ta*e! lead t# %#)ld %a) III

W''/1 Cal9in, ()$0$('3/ *$40&)%'5'%( /( ()$ U*'$0%'( - W/%)'*5(*, A(/*('3 M*(), J/*4/0, T)$

G0$/( C'1/($ F'&=F&, V !8, N. , "&', &. =6

T)$ &&4/('*=30/%) %3$*/0' '% %40$ ()$ 1%( /&&/'*5. Plu((etin* c)# ield! .#uld cau!e !#(e #.e)ul c#unt)ie!t# t) t# ta3e #9e) tei) nei*/#)! #) di!tant land! ++ i #nl /ecau!e tei) a)(ie!- 4*&/'+ /*+ /3


10/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

F$EE T$ADE

F)ee t)ade !#l9e! nuclea) .a) and e"tincti#n

C#le Ne.! Se)9ice &&D$3$17$0 , LN

F0 +$3/+$%, 1/* 3)'+0$* '* A1$0'3/ /*+ ()$0 34*(0'$% 2$*( ( 7$+ -$/0'*5 /**')'/('* 7 *43$/0 2/0. T)$ %&$3($0 - *43$/0 2'*($0

-0$$'*5 ()$ '-$ 4( - &/*$( E/0() %$$1$+ $0 0$/. A3(''%(% &0($%('*5 ()$ W0+ T0/+$ O05/*'/('*@% 1$$('*5 '* S$/(($ /&&/0$*( )/$

-05(($* ()/( ()0$/(. T)$ (04() '% ()/( nati#n! 8#in t#*ete) in *)#u! li3e te %TO *( 4%( ( -40()$0 ()$'0 2* &0%&$0'(, 74( /%

t# #)e!tall c#nlict 2'() ()$0 */('*%. I* / 2/, #u) lanet a! t)aded in te t)eat # a .#)ld.ide nuclea) .a) #)

te /eneit # c##e)ati9e *l#/al ec#n#(ic! , S1$ S$/(($ &0($%($0% 3$/0 -/*3 ()$1%$$% ( 7$ '* ()$ 1+ - *43$/0+'%/01/1$*( 0 /*('=V'$(*/1 W/0 &0($%($0% - +$3/+$% &/%(. B4( ()$@0$ *(. T)$@0$ %&$3'/='*($0$%( /3(''%(%, 2)$()$0 ()$ 3/4%$ '%

$*'0*1$*(/, /70 0 &/0/*'/ /74( 57/ 5$0*1$*(. A3(4/, 1%( - ()$ +$1*%(0/(0% '* S$/(($ /0$ $0 143) 4*'


11/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

HE

Leade)!i i! e!!ential t# )e9ent *l#/al nuclea) e"can*e

/1/ K)/'/+, RAND, T)$ W/%)'*5(* 4/0($0, S&0'*5 ""

U*+$0 ()$ ()'0+ &('*, ()$ U*'($+ S(/($% 24+ %$$< ( 0$(/'* 57/ $/+$0%)'& /*+ ( &0$34+$ ()$ 0'%$ - / 57/ 0'/ 0 / 0$(40* (14('&/0'( -0 ()$ '*+$-'*'($ -4(40$. O* 7//*3$, ()'% '% ()$ 7$%( *5=($01 54'+'*5 &0'*3'&$ /*+ '%'*. S43) / '%'* '% +$%'0/7$ *( /% /*

$*+ '* '(%$-, 74( 7$3/4%$ a .#)ld in .ic te United State! e"e)ci!e! leade)!i .#uld a9e t)e(end#u!

ad9anta*e!. F'0%(, ()$ 57/ $*'0*1$*( 24+ 7$ 10$ &$* /*+ 10$ 0$3$&('$ ( A1$0'3/* /4$% == +$130/3, -0$$ 1/0


12/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

INDO PA %A$

India+Pa3i!tan .a) cul(inate! in e"tincti#n,

Fai +01 G)4/1 N/7', E:$34('$ D'0$3(0, K/%)1'0' A1$0'3/* C4*3', W/%)'*5(* T'1$%, =8

Te #)ei*n #lic # te United State! in S#ut A!ia !#uld (#9e -01 ()$ /3


13/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

JAPAN $E+A$M

Jaan )e+a)( cau!e! nuclea) .a)

M0(* H. Hale)in, D'0$3(0 - P'3 P/**'*5 /( S(/($ D$&/0(1$*(, +2 [“T)$ N43$/0 D'1$*%'* - ()$ US=J/&/* A'/*3$,)((&?222.*/4('4%.05/03)'$%'70/0%$340'(&/&$0%H/&$0'*=US=J/&/*.&+-#

H2$$0, an )eali!tic a)ai!al # nuclea) dan*e)! .#uld !u**e!t tat neite) )#*ue !tate!Gte))#)i!t *)#u! n#)

a deli/e)ate $u!!ian attac3 i! te )i*t #cu! i te *#al # U,S, nati#nal !ecu)it #lic i! t# )e9ent te u!e #

nuclea) .ea#n! an.e)e in te .#)ld. T)$ 1%( '11$+'/($ +/*5$0 '% ()/( I*+'/ /*+ P/


14/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

O$EAN %A$

#)ean .a) cau!e! e"tincti#n,

A)ica Ne.! +&& AFRICA NEWS, D$3$17$0 !, """, &. *'*$L4%/ S4() K0$/. T)$ DPRK '% *$ - ()$ 1%( %$30$('$ 34*(0'$% '* ()$ 20+ 2)$0$ / '%'(0 '%5'$* ()$ '1&0$%%'* ()/( ()$ &$&$@% )/(0$+ -0 ()$ US '% /7%4($ 2)'$ ()$ $ -0 ()$'0 5$0*1$*( '% ((/. W)$()$0 ()'% '% 0$/ %, '( '%

$:(0$1$ +'--'34( ( 3*34+$. I* ()$ DPRK, / '%'(0 '% *$$0 5'$* / 3)/*3$ ( %&$/< ( 0+'*/0 K0$/*% /74( ()$ &'('3% - ()$'0 34*(0. N

'%'(0 1$% /04*+ /*$ 2'()4( 5$0*1$*( $%30(. T)$ A1$0'3/* 5$0*1$*( /054$% ()/( '(% &0$%$*3$ '* S4() K0$/ 2/% 7$3/4%$ - ()$

3*%(/*( +/*5$0 - /* '*/%'* -01 ()$ *0(). A1$0'3/ )/% /%( $3*1'3 '*($0$%(% '* S4() K0$/. S)$ &'*(% 4( ()/( ()$ *0() )/% +45

*41$04% (4**$% /*5 ()$ +$1''(/0'%$+ *$ /% &/0( - ()$ '*/%'* &/*%. S)$ /% /334%$% ()$ *0() - '/('*5 S4() K0$/* ($00'(0'/2/($0%. E/0 ()'% $/0, / %1/ N0() K0$/* %471/0'*$ 2/% 3/45)( '* S4() K0$/* 2/($0% /-($0 5$(('*5 $*(/*5$+ '* -'%)'*5 *$(%. B() ()$

A1$0'3/*% /*+ S4() K0$/*% 3/'1 ()$ %471/0'*$ 2/% * / 1''(/0 %&'*5 1'%%'*. H2$$0, ()$ '*($*%'* - ()$ /$5$+ '*(04%'* 2'

&07/7 *$$0 7$


15/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

LIBE$TY

E9e) in9a!i#n # )eed#( (u!t /e )e8ected,

Pet)# +7 S$%($0 P$(0, &0-$%%0 - /2, W/


16/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

MIDDLE EAST %A$

Middle Ea!t c#nlict e!calate! t# a *l#/al nuclea) .a)

Stein/ac +02 J)*, C$*($0 -0 R$%$/03) * G7/'/('*, =, )((&?222.57/0$%$/03).3//0('3$%STE!9A.)(1M$/*2)'$, ()$ $:'%($*3$ - /* /0%$*/ - 1/%% +$%(043('* '* %43) /* 4*%(/7$ 0$5'* '* (40* )/% %$0'4% '1&'3/('*% -0 -4(40$ /01% 3*(0 /*+

+'%/01/1$*( *$5('/('*%, /*+ $$* ()$ ()0$/( - *43$/0 2/0. S$140 H$0%) 2/0*%, 4S#uld .a) /)ea3 #ut in te Middle Ea!t

/5/'*,... 0 %)4+ /* A0/7 */('* -'0$ 1'%%'$% /5/'*%( I%0/$, /% ()$ I0/'% +'+, a nuclea) e!calati#n, *3$ 4*()'* /*+ E/0 W$'%%1/*, I%0/$@% 3400$*( P0$%'+$*( %/'+ >Te nuclea) i!!ue i!

*ainin* (#(entu(and te ne"t .a) .ill n#t /e c#n9enti#nal,>! R4%%'/ /*+ 7$-0$ '( ()$ S'$( U*'* )/% *5 7$$* /1/0'- *( ()$ 1/0 (/05$( - I%0/$' *4


17/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

MONOCULTU$E

L#!! # *enetic di9e)!it cau!e! e"tincti#n

C/0 F#.le) and P/( M##ne, R40/ A+/*3$1$*( F4*+ I*($0*/('*/, S)/(($0'*5? F+, P'('3%, /*+ ()$ L%%

- G$*$('3 D'$0%'(, "&0, &. ':W)'$ 1/* 1/ &*+$0 ()$ 3*%$4$*3$% - 57/ 2/01'*5, &$0)/&% te /i**e!t !in*le en9i)#n(ental cata!t)#e inu(an i!t#) i! un#ldin* in te *a)den, %ile all a)e )i*tl c#nce)ned a/#ut ()$ &%%'7''( - nuclea) .a)-

an e>uall de9a!tatin* ti(e /#(/ i! tic3in* a.a in te ield! # a)(e)! / $0 ()$ 20+. L#!! # *enetic

di9e)!it in a*)icultu)e!ilent- )aid- ine"#)a/lei! leadin* u! t# a )ende=9#u! .it e"tincti#nt# te

d##)!te # un*e) #n a !cale .e )eu!e t# i(a*ine, T# !i(li te en9i)#n(ent /% 2$ )/$ +*$ 2'() /50'34(40$

i! t# de!t)# te c#(le" inte))elati#n!i! tat #ld te natu)al .#)ld t#*ete), $educin* ()$ di9e)!it -

'-$, .e na))#. #u) #ti#n! #) te utu)e and )ende) #u) #.n !u)9i9al (#)e )eca)i#u!, I( '% '-$ /( ()$ $*+ - ()$'17. T)/( '% ()$ %47$3( - ()'% 7


18/30

SDI 2010

DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

NO$TH O$EAN %A$

%A$ ON THE PENINSULA OES NUCLEA$,

A)ica Ne.! +&& AFRICA NEWS, D$3$17$0 !, """, &. *'*$L4%/ S4() K0$/. T)$ DPRK '% *$ - ()$ 1%( %$30$('$ 34*(0'$% '* ()$ 20+ 2)$0$ / '%'(0 '%

5'$* ()$ '1&0$%%'* ()/( ()$ &$&$@% )/(0$+ -0 ()$ US '% /7%4($ 2)'$ ()$ $ -0 ()$'0 5$0*1$*( '% ((/. W)$()$0 ()'% '% 0$/ %, '( '%

$:(0$1$ +'--'34( ( 3*34+$. I* ()$ DPRK, / '%'(0 '% *$$0 5'$* / 3)/*3$ ( %&$/< ( 0+'*/0 K0$/*% /74( ()$ &'('3% - ()$'0 34*(0. N'%'(0 1$% /04*+ /*$ 2'()4( 5$0*1$*( $%30(. T)$ A1$0'3/* 5$0*1$*( /054$% ()/( '(% &0$%$*3$ '* S4() K0$/ 2/% 7$3/4%$ - ()$

3*%(/*( +/*5$0 - /* '*/%'* -01 ()$ *0(). A1$0'3/ )/% /%( $3*1'3 '*($0$%(% '* S4() K0$/. S)$ &'*(% 4( ()/( ()$ *0() )/% +45

*41$04% (4**$% /*5 ()$ +$1''(/0'%$+ *$ /% &/0( - ()$ '*/%'* &/*%. S)$ /% /334%$% ()$ *0() - '/('*5 S4() K0$/* ($00'(0'/

2/($0%. E/0 ()'% $/0, / %1/ N0() K0$/* %471/0'*$ 2/% 3/45)( '* S4() K0$/* 2/($0% /-($0 5$(('*5 $*(/*5$+ '* -'%)'*5 *$(%. B() ()$

A1$0'3/*% /*+ S4() K0$/*% 3/'1 ()$ %471/0'*$ 2/% * / 1''(/0 %&'*5 1'%%'*. H2$$0, ()$ '*($*%'* - ()$ /$5$+ '*(04%'* 2' &07/7 *$$0 7$


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OCEANS

Ocean ealt i! 3e t# )e9ent e"tincti#n

R7'* K4*+'% C)ai*, L/2 P0- I*+'/*/, W'*($0 200K, “T/ue!t)ati#n- nut)ient cclin*- and

.eate) (ecanic! and >ualit # lie- 7() /$%()$('3 /*+ $3*1'3, #) (illi#n! - &$&$ 20+2'+$. *8 I*+$$+, it i!

diicult t# #9e)!tate te i(#)tance # te #cean t# u(anit6! .ell+/ein* 4Te #cean i! te c)adle # lie

#n #u) lanet- and it )e(ain! te a"i! # e"i!tence- te l#cu! # laneta) /i#di9e)!it- and te en*ine # te

ce(ical and d)#l#*ical ccle! tat c)eate and (aintain #u) at(#!e)e and cli(ate.> *" O3$/* /*+ 3/%(/$3%%($1 %$0'3$% )/$ 7$$* 3/34/($+ ( 7$ 20() $0 (2$*( 7''* +/0% &$0 $/0, 20+2'+$. *!9 I* /++'('*, 1/* &$&$ /%%'5*)$0'(/5$ /*+ $:'%($*3$ /4$ ( ()$ 3$/* /*+ '(% 30$/(40$%, '$2'*5 ()$ 20+@% %$/% /% / 311* $5/3 ( 7$ &/%%$+ * 0$/('$ '*(/3( (

-4(40$ 5$*$0/('*%. *!

"


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O


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IMPACT CALC

P$OTECTIONISM

P)#tecti#ni!( cau!e! nuclea) .a)!,

Sice) +&@ M'3)/$ S&'3$0, $3*1'%(; 1$17$0 - ()$ B0'('%) P/0'/1$*(, T)$ C)/$*5$ -01 ()$ E/%( /*+ ()$ R$7'0() - ()$ W$%(, ""6, &.!T)$ 3)'3$ -/3'*5 ()$ W$%( (+/ '% 143) ()$ %/1$ /% ()/( 2)'3) -/3$+ ()$ S'$( 73 /-($0 W0+ W/0 II? 7$(2$$* 1$$('*5 )$/+=* ()$

3)/$*5$ - 20+ (0/+$ 2'() ()$ /+4%(1$*(% /*+ ()$ 7$*$-'(% ()/( '( 2' 70'*5, 0 - /(($1&('*5 ( %)4( 4( 1/0


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SDI 2010

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P$OLIF

P)#lie)ati#n cau!e! e"tincti#n,

Tal#) +02 [S(4/0( T/0, S$*'0 W0'($0 2'() ()$ N/('*/ J40*/ /*+ $+'(0 /( N$2%2$$'( 24+ 7$ '1&%%'7$ (


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DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

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$USSIA

$u!!ian ci9il .a) lead! t# nuclea) .a) and nuclea) te))#)i!( a*ain!t te US

S($$* R. Da9id, P0-$%%0 - P'('3/ S3'$*3$ /( J)*% H&


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DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

SPACE MIL

SPACE MILITA$I


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DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

TE$$O$ISM

Uncec3ed te))#)i!( .ill )e!ult in e"tincti#n

Y*/) Ale"ande), &0-$%%0 /*+ +'0$3(0 - ()$ I*($0=U*'$0%'( -0 T$000'%1 S(4+'$% '* I%0/$ /*+ ()$ U*'($+ S(/($%. “T$000'%1 1()% /*+ 0$/'('$%, T)$

W/%)'*5(* T'1$%, A454%( !8, 200KUnli3e ()$'0 i!t#)ical c#unte)a)t!- c#nte(#)a) te))#)i!t! a9e int)#duced a ne. !cale # 9i#lence inte)(! # c#n9enti#nal and unc#n9enti#nal t)eat! and i(act. Te inte)nati#nali=ati#n and /)utali=ati#n

# cu))ent and utu)e te))#)i!( (a3e it clea) .e a9e ente)ed an A*e # Sue) Te))#)i!( [$.5. /i#l#*ical-

ce(ical- )adi#l#*ical- nuclea) and c/e) .it it! !e)i#u! i(licati#n! 3*3$0*'*5 */('*/, 0$5'*/ /*+ 57/%$340'( 3*3$0*%. T2 1()% '* &/0('34/0 14%( 7$ +$74* %(0/($5 3/* 7$

+$$&$+ [$.5., %(0$*5()$*'*5 '*($0*/('*/ 3&$0/('*#. T)$ -'0%( '4%'* '% ()/( ($000'%1 3/* 7$ 50$/( 0$+43$+, '- *( $'1'*/($+

31&$($, &0'+$+ ()$ 0( 3/4%$% - 3*-'3(% = &'('3/, %3'/ /*+ $3*1'3 = /0$ /++0$%%$+. T)$ 3*$*('*/ '4%'* '% ()/( ($000'%114%( 7$ 4%('-'$+ 7 &&0$%%$+ &$&$ %$$

/*2)$0$, >5'$ 1$ '7$0( /*+ I 2' 5'$ 4 +$/(),> %)4+ 7$ ($0/($+ '- *( 50'-'$+. T)'% (0/+'('*/ 0/('*/'/('* - >%/30$+>

'$*3$ -($* 3*3$/% ()/( ()$ 0$/ &40&%$ - ($000'%( 504&% '% ( 5/'* &'('3/ &2$0 ()045) ()$ 7/00$ - ()$ 54*, '* '/('* -

-4*+/1$*(/ )41/* 0'5)(% - ()$ **317/(/*( %$51$*( - %3'$('$%. F0 '*%(/*3$, P/$%('*'/*% 0$'5'4% 1$1$*(% [$.5., H/1/%, I%/1'3

J')/+# /*+ %$34/0 $*('('$% [%43) /% F/(/)@% T/*'1 /*+ A%/ M/0(0 B0'5/+$%## 2'%) *( * ( 0$%$ */('*/ 50'$/*3$% [%43) /% J$2'%)%$(($1$*(%, 0'5)( - 0$(40*, J$04%/$1# 74( &0'1/0' ( +$%(0 ()$ J$2'%) %(/($. S'1'/0, O%/1/ 7'* L/+$*@% '*($0*/('*/ *$(20< *( *

&&%$% ()$ &0$%$*3$ - A1$0'3/* 1''(/0 '* ()$ A0/7'/* P$*'*%4/ /*+ I0/, 74( '(% %(/($+ 7$3('$ '% ( >4*'($ / M4%'1% /*+ $%(/7'%) /

5$0*1$*( ()/( -2% ()$ 04$ - ()$ C/'&)%.> T)$ %$3*+ 1() '% ()/( %(0*5 /3('* /5/'*%( ($000'%( '*-0/%(043(40$ [$/+$0%, 0$304'(1$*(,

-4*+'*5, &0&/5/*+/, (0/'*'*5, 2$/&*%, &$0/('*/ 311/*+ /*+ 3*(0# 2' * '*30$/%$ ($000'%1. T)$ /0541$*( )$0$ '% ()/( /2=$*-03$1$*( $--0(% /*+ 1''(/0 0$(/'/('* '*$'(/7 2' -4$ 10$ 704(/ /3(% - '$*( 0$$*5$. C$/0, '- ()'% &$03$&('* 3*('*4$% (

&0$/', &/0('34/0 '* +$130/('3 %3'$('$%, ()$0$ '% ()$ +/*5$0 '( 2' &/0/$ 5$0*1$*(% /*+ ()$0$7 $*340/5$ -40()$0 ($000'%( /((/3


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DUFFY JOHNSON LAB

IMPACT CALC

TY$ANNY

T)ann #ut.ei*! ull !cale nuclea) .a)

R.J $u((el, P0-$%%0 E1$0'(4% - P'('3/ S3'$*3$ U - H/2/'', "& Deat / #9e)n(ent )((&?222.)/2/''.$+4&2$0uence! #

nuclea) .a) and #. it (i*t /e a9#ided. Y$(, in te lie # !#(e !till li9in* .e a9e e"e)ienced in te t#ll

)#( de(#cide /*+ 0$/($+ +$%(043('* /*+ 1'%$0 /1*5 ()$ %40'0% te e>ui9alent # a nuclea) .a), $%&$3'/ /( ()$)'5) *$/0 69,999,999 $*+ - ()$ $%('1/($%. I( '% /% ()45) *$ )/+ /0$/+ 33400$+ Y$( ( 1 *43$/0 2/0>==G' E'(@% T2$*('$() C$*(40 B< - ()$ D$/+.

!6

http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#1http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#1http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#1http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP2.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP2.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP2.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#2http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#1http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DBG.CHAP2.HTMhttp://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/#2


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SDI 2010

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IMPACT CALC

US+CHINA %A$

USGCina .a) #9e) Tai.an cau!e! e"tincti#n,

St)ait! Ti(e! +2 S(0/'(% T'1$%, J4*$, !, !999, N *$ 5/'*% '* 2/0 $0 T/'2/*# PDNSS!THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO =

THE i*+inten!it !cena)i# #!tulate! a c)#!!+!t)ait .a) e!calatin* int# a ull+!cale.a) /et.een te US and Cina, I %a!in*t#n .e)e t# c#nclude tat !littin* Cina .#uld /ette) !e)9e it!

nati#nal inte)e!t!- ten a ull+!cale .a) /ec#(e! una9#ida/le, C#nlict #n !uc a !cale .#uld e(/)#il #te)

c#unt)ie! a) and nea) and +#))#) # #))#)! +)ai!e te #!!i/ilit# a nuclea) .a). B$''*5 )/% /0$/+ (+ ()$ US/*+ J/&/* &0'/($ ()/( '( 3*%'+$0% /* 34*(0 &0'+'*5 7/%$% /*+ 5'%('3% %4&&0( ( /* US -03$% /((/3 &0'*3'&$ 0$5/0+'*5 *43$/0 2$/&*%. M/0=G$*$0/P/* )/*5'/*5, &0$%'+$*( - ()$ 1''(/0=-4*+$+ I*%('(4($ -0 S(0/($5'3 S(4+'$%, (+ / 5/()$0'*5 /( ()$ W+02 W'%* I*($0*/('*/ C$*(0$ -0S3)/0% '* W/%)'*5(* ()/( /()45) ()$ 5$0*1$*( %(' /7'+$+ 7 ()/( &0'*3'&$, ()$0$ 2$0$ %(0*5 &0$%%40$% -01 ()$ 1''(/0 ( +0& '(. H$

%/'+ 1''(/0 $/+$0% 3*%'+$0$+ ()$ 4%$ - *43$/0 2$/&*% 1/*+/(0 '- ()$ 34*(0 0'%


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US+$USSIAN %A$

US Russia war causes extinction --- outweighs other wars

Bostrom 2 Nick Bostrom,. Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale. "Existential Risks: AnalyzingHuman Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," 38, www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. Anall-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probabilityand with consequences that mighthave been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. here was a real worry among those best acquaintedwith the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate ourspecies orpermanently destroy human civili!ation. Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals thatcould be used in a future confrontation" either accidentally or deliberately. here is also a risk that other statesmay one day build up large nuclear arsenals. #ote however thata smaller nuclear exchange" between $ndia and%akistan for instance" is not an existential risk" since it would not destroy or thwart humankind&s potentialpermanently.

!8

http://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.htmlhttp://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html


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%A$MIN

THE IMPACT IS ETINCTION,

Tic3ell 0' [O'$0, “O* / &/*$( C )(($0, / 2$ 3/* &0$&/0$ -0 '% $:('*3('*#

%e need t# *et )ea)ed #) #u) de*)ee! # *l#/al .a)(in* , Bob Watson told the Gurdian last week. At frst

sight this looks like wise counsel rom the climate science adviser to Dera , But te idea tat .e c#uld adat t# a

C )i!e i! a/!u)d and dan*e)#u!, l#/al .a)(in* #n ti! !cale .#uld /e a cata!t)#e tat .#uld (ean, inthe immortal words that Chie Seattle robabl! never soke, "the end o living and the beginning o survival" or

humankind. #r erhas the beginning o our e"tincti#n. Te c#lla!e # te #la) ice ca! .#uld /ec#(e

ine9ita/le- /)in*in* l#n*+te)( !ea le9el )i!e! # 70+'0 (et)e!, All te .#)ld6! c#a!tal lain! .#uld /e l#!t-

c#(lete .it #)t!- citie!- t)an!#)t and indu!t)ial in)a!t)uctu)e- and (uc # te .#)ld6! (#!t )#ducti9e

a)(land. $he world%s geograh! would be transormed much as it was at the end o the last ice age, when sea

levels rose b! about &'( metres to create the Channel, the )orth Sea and Cardigan Ba! out o dr! land. %eate)

.#uld /ec#(e e"t)e(e and un)edicta/le- .it (#)e )e>uent and !e9e)e d)#u*t!- l##d! and u))icane!,

Te Ea)t6! ca))in* caacit .#uld /e u*el )educed, Billi#n! .#uld und#u/tedl die,

!"


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%ATE$ %A$S

%ate) %a)! cau!e nuclea) c#nlict

%eine)- P0-. A( P0'*3$(* 1&&0 J*/()/*, T)$ N$:( 99 Y$/0% &. !9I- 2$ + *( +$%(0 40%$$% 2'() ()$ A=717 /*+ ()$ H=717, ()$* 2$ 1/ +$%(0 40%$$% 2'() ()$ C=717, ()$ C)/*5$ B17. A*+

'* /20+ /% '*($0'*

Impact Calc Exercise

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Transcript of Impact Calc Exercise