Impact adaptation and vulneraility
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Transcript of Impact adaptation and vulneraility
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Working Group 2Findings from AR4
Expectations from AR5
Chris FieldVicente Barros
Co-chairs, IPCC WG2
8 December 2009
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WG 2 – AR 4: Themes• Vast stock of examples of observed changes• Wide array of projected future impacts
– Magnitude varies with scenario– Damages concentrated in extreme events
• Vulnerability exacerbated by other stresses– Hot spots– Vulnerable sectors and populations in all regions
• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced, or delayed by mitigation
• Increased adaptation can help reduce future vulnerability
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Observed impacts• Physical and biological systems• 29,000 time series in chapter 1• All continents and most oceans• Likely that AGW has had a discernable influence
AR4, WG2, Fig 14.1
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Changes in physical and biological systems, 1970-2004:Statistical support for human influence.
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 1
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Advanced detection-attribution techniques to test link between species movements and AGW
AR4, WG2, Box TS 4
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Responses to earlier springs• Average advance in signs of
spring: 2.3 days/decade– Budburst, flowering, nesting,
fledging, etc.– 172 species (trees, shrubs,
herbs, butterflies, birds, amphibians, fish
• Parmesan & Yohe 2003 Nature v 421 p 37
• Advancing bud-burst date: – 2.5 days/decade– 1900-1998– Aspen in Edmonton
• Beaubien & Freedland. 2000. Int J. Meteorol.
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Impacts: links to specific levels of climate change
AR4, WG2, Table TS 3
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Threats to water security
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 5
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Regional threats: Australia and New Zealand
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 12
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Avoiding impactswith mitigation
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 4
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Managing vulnerability with adaptation and mitigation
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 19adaptation
mit
igat
ion
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WG2 in the AR5• Common frameworks & currencies for impacts,
adaptation, and mitigation• Broadening the range of assessed impacts• The interaction of climate change & development• Integrating climate science with climate impacts• Assessing new impact studies based on AR5 climate• Improving the treatment of regional aspects of
climate change
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AR5: Broader range of assessed impacts
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Ocean impacts
• Oceans– half of global NPP– 70% of surface area– 41% has multiple
impacts
Behrenfeld et al Nature 2006
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AR5:Improved
treatment of extremes and
disasters
AR4, WG2, Fig TS 13
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AR5:More thorough treatment of costs of climate change:
common framework & more inclusive currencies
IPCC 2007
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IPCC AR5
• Move from “it’s real” to “here is the information you need to make good decisions for your stakeholders”– Risk management framing– Multiple stresses framing– Full partnership for adaptation