Immigration by numbers

Dr Rob Davidson@bobbledavidson

@scientists4eu@healthierin

@tradedealwatch

“We always knew the referendum would come down

to two things – the economy on the In side and

immigration on the Out side, and that if you could keep the

subject on immigration you would win,” Aaron Banks

“It was taking an American-style media approach,” said Banks. “What they said early on was ‘facts don’t work’ and that’s it.”

One video on the Leave.EU Facebook page, viewed 1.6m times, begins: “Are you concerned about the amount of crime committed in the UK by foreign

criminals?” before ending with the message: “Isn’t it time to take back control.”

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=afb_1452550701

“Are you worried about the overcrowding of the UK and the burden on the NHS?”

“Islamic extremism is a real threat to our way of life. Act now before we see an Orlando-style atrocity here,”

“Dave wants to give 75m Turks access to your #NHS!”

“The Remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work.

You have got to connect with people emotionally. It’s the Trump success.””

It’s not that facts don’t workIt’s just that they don’t work quickly

And the right-wing have had pseudo-facts for years

“we are 64 million people against the 50 million at the 1951 census, thanks not least to the last Labour government’s mass immigration policies and the EU’s refusal to let us control our borders.”

“we are 64 million people against the 50 million at the 1951 census, thanks not least to the last Labour government’s mass immigration policies and the EU’s refusal to let us control our borders.”

EU net migration, data from Figure 2, ONS: http://bit.ly/2gPXI7c

1975

FMLab

EU Ex

Cumulative net migration, EU

“we are 64 million people against the 50 million at the 1951 census, thanks not least to the last Labour government’s mass immigration policies and the EU’s refusal to let us control our borders.”

EU net migration, data from Figure 2, ONS: http://bit.ly/2gPXI7c

1975

FMLab

EU Ex

Cumulative net migration, EU

“Almost 700,000 school-aged children – one in 15 pupils nationally – have a parent who is a citizen of another European country.”

“The number of school-aged children arriving in the UK from Europe reached a record 25,000 in a single year, the researchalso showed.”

“The number of children aged 5 to 16 is 40,100 fewer (down 0.4%) than in mid-2005”Office for National Statistics (2015) - http://bit.ly/2fUiHkR

1973

Population pyramids

Long term trends

1973-20157.5 million increase in over 50s

2 million decrease in under 25s

• If there is an increased cost for the NHS, – It’s our ageing population: diabetes, cancer, dementia

• If there is a problem with schools, – It’s not too many kids

• If there is a boost to our population from immigration,– It’s in the tax-paying, 25-45 age bracket

True facts, images, and stories…can build now.

As previous pseudo-factsand stories are proven false.

This doesn’t help

Sunderland has 8000 fewer schoolkids than in 2001Has closed schools for lack of children

The challenge:

• Use real facts that will stay true for years• Wrap them in stories that connect• Tell the story in many ways

• Tell the truth (show working)• Be positive