IMD Monsoon Update 15-08-14

8/11/2019 IMD Monsoon Update 15-08-14

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_____________________________________________________________________________________________________Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003

Phones: 24611068, 24618241-47; Fax No. 24699216, 2423220, 24643128

Government of IndiaMinistry of Earth Sciences

India Meteorological Department

Weekly Press ReleaseDated: 15 August, 2014

Subject: Current Status of Southwest Monsoon 2014 and Forecast.

Highlights of the week

Monsoon trough gradually shifted northwards and was close to foothills towards laterpart of the week.

Rainfall activity was above normal by 7% of LPA over east & northeast India during theweek.

Considerably decrease in rainfall activity was observed over central India.

Weekly Rainfall Scenario (07-13 August, 2014)

The details of rainfall activity over the country as a whole as well as over the fourhomogeneous regions are given below:

Regions ActualRainfall (mm)Normal

Rainfall (mm)% Departure

from LPA

Country as a whole 50.3 63.0 -20%

Northwest India 49.5 55.0 -10%

Central India 42.1 73.5 -43%South Peninsula 36.6 42.9 -15%

East & northeast India 86.4 81.1 7%

Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the rainfall has been excess over 07,normal over 06, deficient over 16 and scanty over 07 sub-divisions. In area-wisedistribution, 35% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall, 48% receiveddeficient rainfall and remaining 17% area received scanty rainfall. Meteorological sub-

division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure I .


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Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (01 June to 13 August, 2014)

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has sofar upto 13 August been 18% below the Long Period Average (LPA). The details are givenbelow:

Regions ActualRainfall (mm)Normal

Rainfall (mm)% Departure

from LPA

Country as a whole 470.2 571.1 -18%

Northwest India 276.9 390.2 -29%

Central India 574.1 628.7 -9%

South Peninsula 388.8 458.0 -15%

East & northeast India 723.8 937.8 -23%

Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the rainfall has been excess/normal over19, deficient over 15 and scanty over 02 sub-divisions. In area-wise distribution, 55% areaof the country received excess/normal rainfall and remaining 45% area receiveddeficient/scanty rainfall. Cumulative Meteorological sub-division-wise seasonal rainfall isgiven in Annexure II .

Meteorological Analysis as on 15 August, 2014

The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level runs close to the foothills of the

Himalayas. Even with slight oscillation of its eastern end, it is still likely to remain closeto the foothills on many days during next 7 days.

A trough extending upto mid-tropospheric levels with embedded cyclonic circulationover Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and adjoining Bihar runs from Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to North Bay of Bengal across Gangetic WestBengal.

A westerly trough in mid-tropospheric with its axis at 5.8 kms above mean sea levelruns roughly along Long. 70.0E to the north of Lat. 30.0N.

Forecast & Warning for next one week (15 to 21 August)

Rain/thundershowers would occur at most places with likely extremely heavyrains over Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and northeasternstates.

Rain/thundershowers would occur at most places with likely to very heavyrains over Western Himalayan Region during next 48 hours and decreasethereafter.

Detailed Meteorological Sub-division wise seven days rainfall forecast & heavyrainfall warnings are given below:


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SUB-DIVISION WISE RAINFALL FORECAST & HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGDATE OF ISSUE: 15-08-2014

S.No.METEOROLOGICAL SUB-

DIVISIONS

RAINFALL

15AUG

16AUG

17AUG

18AUG

19AUG

20AUG

21AUG

1 ANDAMAN & N ISLANDS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WDS** WDS** FWS* FWS* WDS** WDS*** WDS***3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WDS* WDS* FWS* WDS** WDS** WDS*** WDS***4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.TRIPURA WDS* WDS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS5 SHWB &SIKKIM WDS*** WDS* WDS* WDS** WDS** WDS** WDS***6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WDS* WDS FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS*

7 ODISHA FWS FWS SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

8 JHARKHAND FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS

9 BIHAR WDS*** WDS** FWS FWS FWS* FWS** FWS***

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS* FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND WDS** WDS* FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL MD MD MD

14 PUNJAB SCT ISOL ISOL MD MD MD ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WDS** WDS* SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR FWS FWS* SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT

17 WESTRAJASTHAN MD MD MD MD MD MD MD

18 EASTRAJASTHAN MD MD MD MD MD MD MD

19 WESTMADHYAPRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

20 EASTMADHYAPRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION DD & NH SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL MD MD22 SAURASHTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL MD MD23 KONKAN & GOA FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA MD MD ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRAPRADESH SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

29 TELANGANA SCT ISOL ISOL FWS FWS FWS FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA SCT FWS FWS FWS WDS * WDS ** WDS**

33 NORTH INT. KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

34 SOUTH INT. KARNATAKA SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS* FWS* FWS* 35 KERALA SCT SCT SCT FWS* FWS* FWS* FWS*36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

Legends Distribution (% of stations reported rainfall)

WDS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES(More than 75%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED(Less than 25%) MD MAINLY DRY(Very Light Rainfall) DRY DRY(Nil Rainfall)

*with heavy falls**with heavy to very heavy falls***with extremely heavy falls Heavy (64.5- 124.4 mm) Very Heavy (124.5-244.5 mm) Extremely Heavy (>244.4 mm)


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Extended Range Forecast (upto 03 September)

The extended range prediction based on multi model ensemble technique is as

follows:

1. Active to vigorous monsoon conditions with above normal rainfall are very muchlikely over most parts northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar till

August end.2. Rainfall likely to increase considerably over peninsular India from 20 August

onwards.3. Rainfall very likely to remain below normal over plains of northwest & west India

and central India on many days till 03 September.

Next weekly update will be issued on Friday i.e. 22 August, 2014


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Annexure I


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Annexure II

IMD Monsoon Update 15-08-14

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