Imagining the Future of Agriculture

Robert TseUSDA Rural DevelopmentYribarren RanchBishop, CA July 24, 2014

Global Demographic DriversGlobal Ag Challenges

Global Ag Opportunities

Global Demand Drivers to 2050• Global Population Increase• Rapid Urbanization• Growing Middle Class• Climate Change Impact

•Rising Food Prices•Rising Global Trade of Food•Rising Demand for Protein, Fruits and Vegetables•Agriculture Adapts to Climate Change•Rising Global Travel

Global Agriculture Challenges

Limited availability of more arable land for production without high environmental costsDouble Productivity on farm land already in productionAdapt to Global Climate ChangeMeet Local Challenges

Global Agriculture Opportunities

Produce More with Less LaborNew Plant Hybrids, and Animal BreedsNew Agricultural TechnologyNew Agricultural Production PracticesGreater Efficiency in Agricultural

Utilization of WaterExpanding Markets for California’s

Food and Agriculture Products

Central Valley Produces More Than Any Other State - Except California

$33.8 B

$27 B

$47.5 B$34.7 B

Gross Farm Gate USDA NASS

San Joaquin Valley Dominates California Ag Production

$Billion All Crops

California $51.5San Joaquin Valley $30.2Fresno $6.9 14%Tulare $5.6 11%Kern $5.4 11%Merced $3.3 6%Stanislaus $3.1 6%San Joaquin $2.2 4%Kings $2.2 4%Madera $1.6 3%

Gross Value

59%

2011 USDA NASS CA

2011

Surface View

Inyo & Mono County Farm Gate $77.3 MillionAnimal Agriculture Dominates

Pasture and Hay; 30.08; 39%

All Cattle; $35.5; 46%

Sheep & Lambs; 3.862; 5%

GARLIC; 0.994; 1%POTATOES; 0.935; 1%NURSERY, TURF;

1.011; 1%Apiary Prdts; 2.869;

4%Rest of Products;

1.986; 3%

$ Million

USDA NASS 2012

Local Impact

Disruptive Events

Disruptive Event: Drought

2014 Drought Impact

• Greatest absolute reduction in water available … for California agriculture ever seen …

• State wide Impact:– Crop Revenue Loss: $810 Million– Additional Pumping Cost $454 Million– Livestock / Dairy Revenue Loss $203 Million– TOTAL DIRECT LOSSES $1.5 BILLION

• TOTAL ECONOMIC COST: $2.2 BILLION• TOTAL JOB LOSSES: 17,000

Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California AgricultureUC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences July 15, 2014

Disruptive Event: Digital 395

Robert Tse USDA RD CA

Agriculture TechnologyCombines two California core strengths:

Agriculture and Technology

New Ag Technology

Ag Tech

Pro-duction

Water

Environ-mentEnergy

Food Safety

New Data Driven Technology Production Side of Agriculture

InfrastructureBROADBAND

RURAL WIRELESS BROADBANDNEW AGRICULTURE TECHNOLOGY

PRODUCTION WATER ENERGYENVIRONMENT FOOD SAFETY

RURAL TELE-HEALTH / TELE-MEDICINEDistance Learning Public Libraries

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICSPUBLIC SAFETY

DIRECT MARKET ACCESS TO GLOBAL MARKETSRural Agro Tourism & Recreation

FOUNDATION FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY

Technology is Here!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8dBOGAfUIk

Thank you

Travel – Tourism is Critical to Rural CountiesRank County Percent

Employment From Tourism

Percent Earnings From Tourism

1 Mariposa 52% 33%

2 Mono 49% 32%3 Alpine 34% 16%

4 Inyo 24% 12%5 Sierra 23% 13%

California Tourism Commission

Regional Economy Driven by Tourism

Travel Hotel Food & Bev Farm Gate$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800Mono Inyo$704

$ Million

2012 2012 2011 2012

Source: California Tourism Commission, USDA - NASS

$195$136

$77

San Joaquin Valley Dominates California Ag Production

$1,000 All Crops

State Total 51,488,191San Joaquin Valley 30,243,586Fresno 6,884,582Tulare 5,629,264Kern 5,364,363Merced 3,259,866Stanislaus 3,069,823San Joaquin 2,246,920Kings 2,219,529Madera 1,569,239

Fresno13%

Tulare11%

Kern10%

Merced6%

Stanislaus6%

San

Joaq

uin

4%King

s4%M

ader

a3%

Rest of State41%

San

Joaq

uin

Valley

Gross Value

59%

2011 USDA NASS CA

2011