Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
42
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
description
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC. Global Climate Change and Its Impact on the US Midwest. Eugene S. Takle Professor Department of Agronomy Department of Geological and Atmospheric Science Director, Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011. Executive/Key Management Meeting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Global Climate Change and Its Impact on the US Midwest
Eugene S. TakleProfessor
Department of AgronomyDepartment of Geological and Atmospheric Science
Director, Climate Science ProgramIowa State University
Ames, IA 50011
Executive/Key Management MeetingCommonwealth Edison
Oakbrook, IL16 April 2013
Global CO2 and Mean Temperature
NASA
NOAA
February 2013 was the 336 consecutive month with global temperature above the long term average
Global CO2 and Mean Temperature
NASA
NOAA
February 2013 was the 336 consecutive month with global temperature above the long term average
2014 National Climate Assessment
2014 National Climate Assessment
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 201040.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0Illinois Climate Region 2 Annual Temperature
Tem
pera
ture
(oF)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 201040.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0Illinois Climate Region 2 Annual Temperature
Tem
pera
ture
(oF)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201542.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
Illinois Climate Region 2 Annual Temperature
Tem
pera
ture
(oF)
2014 National Climate Assessment
U.S.
2014 National Climate Assessment
Decrease in Heating Demand
U.S.
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Illinois Climate Region 2 Heating Degree Days
Heati
ng D
egre
Day
s
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/
2014 National Climate Assessment
Increase in Cooling Demand
U.S.
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Illinois Climate Region 2 Cooling Degree Days
Cool
ing
Degr
ee D
ays
~8% increase in 40 years
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 201520.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Illinois Climate Region 2 Annual Precipitation
Prec
ipita
tion
(Inch
es)
2014 National Climate Assessment
2014 National Climate Assessment
Daily totals > 4 inches
2014 National Climate Assessment
Mean Summer (JJA) Dew-Point Temperatures for Des Moines, IA
Rise of 3oF in 42 years
12% rise in water content in 42 years
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Conditions today are unusual in the context of the last 2,000 years …
Don Wuebbles
Climate models: Natural processes do not account for observed 20th century warming after 1965
Gerald Meehl
What can we expect in the future?
Don Wuebbles
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2007
2014 National Climate Assessment
2014 National Climate Assessment
March 2012: Record high temperature
April 2012: Below freezing temperatures
Midwest Examples
Impact: 85% loss of fruit crop
Number of Days Over 100ºF
Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects
Recent Past, 1961-1979
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Don Wuebbles
Average:30-60 days
Average:10-20 days
Average:< 10 days
2014 National Climate Assessment
Chicago: 750 deaths in 5 days
Extreme weather events become more common
• Events now considered rare will become commonplace.• Heat waves will likely become longer and more severe• Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some
regions• Likely increase in severe thunderstorms
(and perhaps in tornadoes).• Winter storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent.
Don Wuebbles
2014 National Climate Assessment
2014 National Climate Assessment
Iowa State-Wide Average Data
18701877188418911898190519121919192619331940194719541961196819751982198919962003201010.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
R² = 0.010782029618847
Total Annual State-Wide Average Precipitation
Year
Tota
l Ave
rage
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
) 3 years
Totals above 40”
7 years5 years
5 years
Totals below 25”
2012
Iowa State-Wide Average Data
18701877188418911898190519121919192619331940194719541961196819751982198919962003201010.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
R² = 0.010782029618847
Total Annual State-Wide Average Precipitation
Year
Tota
l Ave
rage
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
) 3 years
Totals above 40”5 years
2012
1990-2011: lack of drought
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Number of Days with a Maximum Temperature Greater Than or Equal to 100°F
Year
Num
ber o
f Day
s
Des Moines Airport Data
1974: 71977: 8
1983: 13
1988: 1011 days in 2012
6 days ≥ 100oF in 23 years
2014 National Climate Assessment
Future Variability in Growing Season Precipitation for Iowa
More intense rain events
More extreme droughts
CJ Anderson, ISU
Future Variability in Growing Season Precipitation for Iowa
More extreme droughts
CJ Anderson, ISU
Lines drawn by eye
More intense rain events
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201520.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Illinois Climate Region 2 Annual Precipitation
Prec
ipita
tion
(Inch
es)
How will climate change impact building energy use in Chicago?
Use Energy Plus v. 7.2 building energy simulation model (DOE)
Use multiple realizations of the climate of 2050 by multiple combinations of global and regional climate models
Use multiple building types (e.g., medium office, secondary school, stand-alone retail)
Calculate the change in average energy use between two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2041-2070)
Total Heating Cooling-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400Stand Alone Retail, Chicago,
Ener
gy C
hang
e (G
J)
Total Heating Cooling-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0Stand Alone Retail, Chicago,
Ener
gy C
hang
e (%
)
Calculations by Shannon Patton
Projected Energy Changes, Chicago
Energy Plus has 16 building types
Three different model scenarios
40-70% increase by mid-century, much due to increased humidity
Take-Away Messages Temperature trends in NE Illinois generally follow global trends
with sustained rapid increases since 1970 Global climate models well calibrated on the early 20th C cannot
explain recent global temperature increases without including human effects
Mean temperatures will continue to increase over the current century
Year-to-year changes in summer precipitation will increase This will lead to higher year-to-year changes in temperature More intense rain events will lead to more flooding events (and
possibly more lightning, strong winds, my speculation) NE Illinois will experience a seasonal shift and overall decrease in
building energy use (absent advances in building design)
For More Information:
Climate Science ProgramIowa State University
http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Questions?
