Im webinar3 presentation latino vote_final

The Power of The Latino Vote

2012 and Beyond.

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Cynthia CorzoEditor, Hispanic Market Weekly

Cynthia Corzo is editor of Hispanic Market Weekly. In this role,

she oversees all of the editorial content in both the weekly

newsletter and on www.hispanicmarketweekly.com. She joined

Hispanic Market Weekly in 2002 after 14 years at El Nuevo

Herald and The Miami Herald.

Corzo has successfully established solid relationships with

agencies, advertisers and media outlets active in the Hispanic

market, delivering for Hispanic Market Weekly a steady stream of

scoops, breaking news and solicited content.

http://www.hispanicmarketweekly.com/


2012 and Beyond.

Webinar Agenda• The Power of The Latino Vote, Cesar M. Melgoza, Geoscape

• The Bilingual Electorate & Latino Outreach, Dr. Gary Segura,

Latino Decisions

• Inside Latino Voters and the Media, Pilar Marrero, La Opinión

• Q&A

Presenters

Access the New Mainstream

2012 and Beyond

The Power of the Latino Vote

César M Melgoza

Founder & CEO

Geoscape

[email protected]

www.geoscape.com

1-888-211-9353

Actionable insights for public service and business expansion

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.geoscape.com/

Overview

• American Diversity :: The New Mainstream

– The ―Growth-Majority‖.

– Who‘s driving economic growth?

• Latino Voting Behavior and Party Affiliation.

– The ―Latino Voter Lag‖.

– Swinging allegiances.

7© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

American Cultural Diversity

The Latino Growth Majority

Latinos represented 56 percent of America’s population growth

between 2000 and 2010 and grew at 9x the rate of non-Latinos.

Population Change by Ethnicity/Race

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 9Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Notes: Population of Puerto Rico is not included in Hispanic population figures. * 2000-2011-2016 numbers for Asian and Black are for Non-Hispanic; 2011 and 2016 Estimates as of July 1

By 2016, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be nearly 115 million and Hispanics will represent over half of that population.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016

Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Black Asian

U.S

. P

opula

tion

(in m

illio

ns)

Years

Hispanics became the largest ―minority‖ group

in 2000 and have continued to surge.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Per

cen

tage

Years

NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian Multicultural

Non-Hispanic White population drops below 50% of the U.S.

population in 2040

Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2050

NH Asian & PI 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,717,118 16,518,783 34,952,900

NH Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 38,021,109 39,945,184 52,122,797

Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 51,233,818 58,398,328 133,543,59

4

NH Other 157,198,59

8

170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086 216,901,24

8

Total 179,232,17

5

203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 312,180,883 326,127,959 437,520,53

9

Hispanic Concentration: 1990

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 10

Concentration previously in Southwestern states – darkest shade

is 50% or greater

Hispanic Concentration: 2016


Concentration spreading towards North and East with significant

populations throughout U.S.

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Pe

rce

nt H

isp

an

ic P

op

ula

tio

n

Age Ranges

% Hispanic

% Non-Hispanic

Hispanics by Age Range Distribution


Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2011

Series.

About 70% of Hispanics are under 40 compared to 51% of Non-Hispanics whereas more

than 92% of the retirement-age population is Non-Hispanic.

The Hispanic population is younger than the Non-Hispanic population, with a significantly greater proportion of all population cohorts in the under 40 age groups—indicating an oncoming spending wave. Conversely, the

retirement age population is predominantly non-Hispanic.

The New Digital Divide

Hispanics have very high penetration of

smartphones for texting, internet browsing,

etc. on a par with Asians and ahead of White

and African Americans13

Today nearly 2/3 of Hispanics are online,

with a heavier skew among the English-

speaking, more acculturated population.

Hispanics are among the most avid social media

users and are 3x more likely to create online content.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

The changing business and

political landscape

Powerful Trends for Savvy Politicians

Who‘s driving economic growth?

Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™

Hispanics represent about 12 percent of American households but contribute nearly half of the growth in consumer spending— and with the addition of Asians are responsible for two-thirds of

spending growth. The data below are for 2010 and are expected to increase further for 2011.

Annual Consumer Spending Growth „09 –‟10


Which consumer is worth more?

Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™

Acquiring a household today and retaining it throughout their lifespan will result in very different cumulative revenue due to age, spending and life expectancy.

Asian households will spend the most, followed by Hispanics. Each sector varies, often the average spending per household higher even if income is lower. Differences in lifespan result in compelling outcomes in favor of Hispanic and Asian consumers.

The continued rapid growth in the Hispanic population will result in an aggregate spending worth that is becoming difficult to ignore—making it more important and strategic for corporations to shift their investment priorities.

16

Lifetime Household Spending 2010+ NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Hispanic

Food at Home $161,741 $133,565 $227,231 $261,551

Food at Home and Away $278,321 $217,525 $404,180 $411,335

Personal Care $26,863 $26,247 $34,750 $32,748

Apparel $67,976 $95,098 $109,260 $124,027

Home Furnishings $63,997 $53,347 $87,843 $58,120

Transportation $360,334 $302,614 $494,944 $456,903

Entertainment $126,388 $74,689 $199,227 $104,842

Subtotal $1,085,619 $903,085 $1,557,435 $1,449,525

Other $1,086,340 $865,697 $1,537,514 $1,073,610

Total $2,171,959 $1,768,782 $3,094,949 $2,523,135

Hispanic

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

The Future of America's Tax Base

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 17Source: Geoscape analysis of department of commerce data

and AMDS.

1950 2050

0%

100%Anglo middle-class in the workforce

Latinos in the workforce

• America‟s “Golden Era” of economic

vitality post WW2 in about 1950 and may

be steadily eroding…

• Unless significant investment in the

younger workforce members is initiated.

• School age population and younger

workforce members are disproportionately

Hispanic and will increasingly represent

the tax-paying public.

• Boomers will represent the majority of the

retirees, drawing Social Security and

Medicare benefits and depending on a

vital public works and national security

infrastructure.

• The best way to ensure vital tax base is to

invest in the ability for Hispanics to

acquire high-earning jobs.

Congressional District Map


Latinos form an increasing proportion of key states and congressional districts

throughout the nation. However, to reach reaching par to the overall would require

14 additional U.S. Senators and 47 additional members of the U.S. Congress.

Congressional District Map


Oddly shaped boundaries are common among congressional

districts – the decennial redistricting process is usually

very controversial.

Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 20Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .

Due to the Latino population’s youth and the number of non-citizens, the

voting eligible population is only about 43 percent – but expected to increase.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Hispanic White Black Asian

42.7

77.7

67.1

52.7

22.4

1.4

4.024

34.9

20.928.9

23.3

Eligible Voters as a Share of Total Population for Major Racial and Ethnic Groups, 2010 (Percent)

Under 18

Non Citizen

Voting Eligible

Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

84.9 84.6 82.5 80.7 79.2 76.3

9.8 9.910.6 11.5

11.012.1

3.6 3.8 4.7 5.46 7.4

0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5

Demographic Composition of Voters by Race & Ethnicity, 1988-2008 (% of voters)

White Black Hispanic Asian

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .

Latinos formed more than 12

percent of eligible voters in 2008 and

as U.S. born Latinos reach adult age, this

will accelerate rapidly.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

All White Black Hispanic Asian

63.6 66.1 65.2

49.9 47.0

63.867.2

60.3

47.244.6

-0.2-1.1 4.9

2.7

2.4

Change in Voter Turnout Rates Among Eligible Voters, 2008 and 2004 (Percent)

2008 2004 % Change

Eligible Voters vs. Voters


Voter participation increased significantly in the last general

election – African Americans nearly 5 percent and Latinos nearly 3

percent more that in 2004.

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements .

Party Affiliation


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1999 2002 2004* 2006 2007

58 56 5549

57

2525 28

28

23

Percent Who Identify With or Lean to a Party

Democratic Republican

Although most Latinos identify with the Democratic party, alliance with

Republicans increased during the GW Bush years – in part due to his ―in-

culture outreach‖ to Hispanics.

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2002-2007 National Surveys of Latinos (*June 2004); and Washington Post/Kaiser

Family Foundation/Harvard University, 1999 National Survey on Latinos in America.

• Democrat– Have tended to push civil rights

issues and look after

disadvantaged groups.

– Older acculturated Latinos will

remember and tend to stay loyal.

– Attract supporters of with social

issues such as abortion, gay

marriage.

– Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Central

Americans tend to affiliate.

– Younger groups of all origins who

grew up more progressive in

diverse communities.

• Republican– More recently have embraced

Hispanics.

– Often for political convenience.

– Pro-business, anti-tax sentiment.

– Tend to connect on moral/religious

issues.

– Newer migrants will not realize

contributions of democrats to Latino

progress.

– Anti-Castro Cuban exiles tend to

align.

– Evangelical Christians may convert

from democratic party.

Political Party Affiliation Tendencies


Party Dynamics


Tax the

Wealthy

Strong Military

Civil RightsArdent Christians

Rep

ub

lica

n

Democrat

Vulnerable

Republicans

to Switch

Democrat

Base

Vulnerable

Democrats

to Switch

Republican

Base

Party Affiliation by Hispanicity


Party affiliation varies by acculturation level. Unacculturated Latinos are more likely Independent whereas Republicans

Latinos tend to be acculturated.

Courting Latinos in 2012

• Latinos ever-increasing voter clout.

• Latino allegiances result more and more into a swing-vote.

• All parties need to consider addressing Latino issues.

• Party affiliation varies by state, country-of-origin and

socioeconomic status.

• Republican have historically been less attentive to key Latino

issues.

• Latino sentiment about the current administration has

diminished.

• Latino ―family values‖ lean republican but economic issues

lean democrat.

• Latino public is in a strategic position to court both parties.

Strategic

Tactical27

© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.

Access the New Mainstream

2012 and Beyond

The Power of the Latino Vote

César M Melgoza

Founder & CEO

Geoscape

[email protected]

www.geoscape.com

1-888-211-9353

Actionable insights for public service and business expansion

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.geoscape.com/

• Since 2007, Latino Decisions has completed more than 10,000 interviews with Latino voters

• One trend is consistent over and over again: you must engage Latinos in both English and Spanish to be effective

• A third of registered voters are predominantly reliant on Spanish Media

• Half of all citizens—and a majority of citizens not registered—rely on Spanish media:– Growing the Latino Electorate depends on bilingual appeals

The Bilingual Electorate

www.latinodecisions.com

When you watch television, do you watch Spanish-

language stations more often, English-language

stations more often, or do you watch both equally?

June 2008 March 2010 Sep 10

Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg

Spanish mostly 22% 43% 37% 29%

Both exactly equal 33% 41% 30% 32%

English mostly 45% 13% 32% 39%

Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008

Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all

eligible voters instead of just registered)

Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll

The Bilingual Electorate: TV


How about when you listen to the radio?

Reg Non-Reg Citz

Spanish mostly 32% 51%

Both exactly equal 24% 27%

English mostly 44% 12%


The Bilingual Electorate: Radio


There are a lot of different sources of news and information. When it comes to news and information about the election, which source do you trust the most to deliver the best information?

June 2008 March ‘10 Sep ‗10

Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg

Spanish news 31% 58% 49% 35%

Both exactly equal 19% 18% 12% 13%

English news 47% 22% 38% 48%


Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible voters instead of just registered)

Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll

Bilingual Electorate: News Reliability


Political party‘s, candidates, and civic groups sometimes

send people postcards or flyers in the mail before the

election. Are you more likely to pay attention to these if

they are in Spanish, in English, or in Spanish and

English equally?

Nevada ‗08 National ‗10

Spanish 19% 20%

Bilingual/both 48% 40%

English 25% 32%

Latino Decisions / NALEO, September 2008 – Latino registered voters in Nevada

Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010 – national poll

The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!


• Media strategies of both parties must include

English and Spanish outreach, and the message is

not always the same.

• Don‘t believe any polling of registered voters that

has less than 30% answering in Spanish.

• Exit polls, which typically have only 6-8% of

Hispanic interviews in Spanish, are particularly bad.

The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!


2012 Presidential Election:

A Question of Turnout, Population

Growth, Immigration, and

Outreach


The Growing Electorate


• In 2008, Latino voters were instrumental in several states, sometimes with margins exceeding state margin:– Latinos likely decisive in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada,

North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida:

– Yes, North Carolina and Indiana!

• In 2010, Latinos saved the day for:– Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn

– Colorado Senator Michael Bennett

– Nevada Senator Harry Reid

• Failure to focus on Latinos costs Alex Sink the FL gubernatorial election.

Latino Effect in 2008 and 2010


• Latino political power in California, Texas and New

York is often overlooked because the states are not

competitive. But– California is not competitive precisely because of the Latino electorate.

Absent Latinos, California elections are a virtual tie, and before Latino

mobilization around and after 1994 (Prop 187), California was a largely

GOP state in statewide elections.

– Latinos are the key to any future competitiveness in Texas. It is for this

reason that George W. Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rick Perry avoided

racially polarizing legislation that has appeared in California, Colorado,

Arizona and elsewhere.

– Latinos in New York are heavily Democratic and play a powerful role in

NYC politics, particularly Democratic primaries.

Overlooked Power


• Latinos will likely comprise approximately 9.5% of the

electorate in 2012.

• Latinos will be critical voices in shaping outcomes in

Southwestern swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New

Mexico, as well as the ever-pivotal Florida.

• Even small Latino populations could be decisive in

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

• GOP strategists believe they must win 40% of the Latino vote

to prevail, prompting rumors of Marco Rubio or New Mexico

Governor Susana Martinez as the VP selection.

Looking Forward to 2012


• Don‘t listen if either campaign tells you Immigration is not the Latino voting

issue.

• Our June Poll showed that 53% of all LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS

count among their friends or family an undocumented immigrant.

• Many (25%) know someone facing immigration enforcement.

Immigration Matters in 2012


• This affects the President‘s approval on the matter…

• Recent policy shifts must be understood against this background.

Immigration Matters in 2012


• So key issues among Latinos will be Jobs and Immigration.

• Disappointment with the administration more likely to result in abstention than switching.

• The President‘s chances with Latino voters will be driven by three factors:– The impact of recent efforts to ameliorate his immigration policy;

– The unemployment rate, and perceptions of efforts to improve things; and most importantly

– What the GOP nominee says about Latinos and immigrants. Republicans have long been among the most effective Democratic turnout strategies.

Looking Forward to 2012



2012 and Beyond.

Latino Voters:

Who are

They?


2012 and Beyond.

Thru the Eyes of Own

Media.

The Latino Community


2012 and Beyond.

Key to Latinos Today: The Last 25 Years

1930 1931 1970


2012 and Beyond.

1979 19911980


2012 and Beyond.

1995 1997 1999


2012 and Beyond.

20062005 2008 2009


2012 and Beyond.

2010 Today


2012 and Beyond.

Growth Population by Birth and

Immigration

Growth Population by Birth

and Immigration.


2012 and Beyond.

Latinos More than

Doubled in

population in the

Last 20 Years.


2012 and Beyond.

What Exactly is Latino?


2012 and Beyond.

…It’s About Family.

Latinos Care About Immigrants and

Immigration Policy.


2012 and Beyond.

Latinos are

Conservative… But Not

“That Way.”


2012 and Beyond.

Latino Politicians: What’s Changing…


2012 and Beyond.

Latinos and

The American Dream.

http://politicals.entravision.com

Thank you for joining

www.hispanicmarketweekly.comwww.geoscape.comwww.latinodecisions.comwww.impremedia.com

For questions on this webinar

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Im webinar3 presentation latino vote_final

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