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The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants
and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer
by Robert Rector and Jason Richwine, PhD
SPECIAL REPORT No. 133 | MAY 6, 2013from THE DOMESTIC POLICY STUDIES DEPARTMENT
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SR-133
The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants
and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer
Robert Rector and Jason Richwine, PhD
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Thispaperinitsentiretycanbeoundat
http//reportheritageorg/sr
ProducedbytheDomesticPolicyStudiesDepartment
TheHeritageFoundation
MassachusettsAvenueNEWashingtonDC()-|heritageorg
NothingwrittenhereistobeconstruedasnecessarilyreectingtheviewsoTheHeritageFoundationorasanattempttoaidorhinderthepassageoanybillbeoreCongress
About the Authors
Robert Rectoris Senior Research Fellow in the Domestic Policy StudiesDepartment at The Heritage
Foundation.
Jason Richwine, PhD is Senior Policy Analyst or Empirical Studies in the Domestic Policy StudiesDepartment at The Heritage Foundation.
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iii
SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
Table o Contents
Executive Summr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v
The Fiscl Cost o Unlwul Immigrnts nd amnest to the U.S. Txper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
appendix a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
appendix B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
appendix C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
appendix D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
appendix E. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
appendix F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
appendix G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61
appendix Tbles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
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v
SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants
and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer
Robert Rector and Jason Richwine, PhD
Executive Summary
Unlwul immigrtion nd mnest or cur-rent unlwul immigrnts cn pose lrge sclcosts or U.S. tx pers. Government provides our
tpes o benets nd services tht re relevnt to
this issue:
Direct benets. These include Socil Securit,Medicre, unemploment insur nce, nd workers
compenstion.
Means-tested welare benets. There re over80 o these progrms which, t cost o nerl
$900 billion per er, provide csh, ood, housing,
medicl, nd other services to roughl 100 million
low-income americns. Mjor progrms include
Medicid, ood stmps, the reundble Erned
Income Tx Credit, public housing, Supplementl
Securit Income, nd Temporr assistnce or
Need Fmilies.
Public education. at cost o $12,300 per pupilper er, these services re lrgel ree or hevil
subsidized or low-income prents.
Population-based services. Police, re, high-ws, prks, nd similr services, s the Ntionl
acdem o Sciences determined in its stud o
the scl costs o immigrtion, generll hve to
expnd s new immigrnts enter communit;
someone hs to ber the cost o tht expnsion.
The cost o these governmentl services is r lrg-
er thn mn people imgine. For exmple, in 2010,
the verge U.S. household received $31,584 in gov-
ernment benets nd services in these our ctegories.
The governmentl sstem is highl redistributive.
Well-educted households tend to be net tax contribu-
tors: The txes the p exceed the direct nd mens-
tested benets, eduction, nd popultion-bsed ser-
vices the receive. For exmple, in 2010, in the whole
U.S. popultion, households with college-eductedheds, on verge, received $24,839 in government
benets while ping $54,089 in txes. The verge
college-educted household thus generted scl
surplus o $29,250 tht government used to nnce
benets or other households.
Other households re net tax consumers: The ben-
ets the receive exceed the txes the p. These
households generte scl decit tht must be
nnced b txes rom other households or b gov-
ernment borrowing. For exmple, in 2010, in the U.S.
popultion s whole, households heded b persons
without high school degree, on verge, received$46,582 in government benets while ping onl
$11,469 in txes. This generted n verge scl de-
icit (benets received minus txes pid) o $35,113.
The high decits o poorl educted households
re importnt in the mnest debte becuse the
tpicl unlwul immigrnt hs onl 10th-grde
eduction. Hl o unlwul immigrnt households
re heded b n individul with less thn high
school degree, nd nother 25 percent o household
heds hve onl high school degree.
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vi
THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
Some rgue tht the decit gures or poorl
educted households in the generl popultion
re not relevnt or immigrnts. Mn believe, or
exmple, tht lwul immigrnts use little welre.
In relit, lwul immigrnt households receive
signicntl more welre, on verge, thn U.S.-
born households. Overll, the scl decits or sur-
pluses or lwul immigrnt households re the
sme s or higher thn those or U.S.-born house-
holds with the sme eduction level. Poorl edu-
cted households, whether immigrnt or U.S.-born,
receive r more in government benets thn the
p in txes.
In contrst to lwul immigrnts, unlwul immi-
grnts t present do not hve ccess to mens-tested
welre, Socil Securit, or Medicre. This does notmen, however, tht the do not receive government
benets nd services. Children in unlwul immi-
grnt households receive hevil subsidized public
eduction. Mn unlwul immigrnts hve U.S.-
born children; these children re currentl eligible
or the ull rnge o government welre nd medicl
benets. and, o course, when unlwul immigrnts
live in communit, the use rods, prks, sew-
ers, police, nd re protection; these services must
expnd to cover the dded popultion or there will
be congestion eects tht led to decline in ser-
vice qulit.In 2010, the verge unlwul immigrnt house-
hold received round $24,721 in government ben-
ets nd services while ping some $10,334 in
txes. This generted n verge nnul scl de-
cit (benets received minus txes pid) o round
$14,387 per household. This cost hd to be borne
b U.S. txpers. amnest would provide unlw-
ul households with ccess to over 80 mens-test-
ed welre progrms, Obmcre, Socil Securit,
nd Medicre. The scl decit or ech household
would sor.
I encted, mnest would be implemented inphses. During the rst or interim phse (which is
likel to lst 13 ers), unlwul immigrnts would
be given lwul sttus but would be denied ccess to
mens-tested welre nd Obmcre. Most n-
lsts ssume tht roughl hl o unlwul immi-
grnts work o the books nd thereore do not p
income or FICa txes. During the interim phse,
these o the books workers would hve strong
incentive to move to on the books emploment.
In ddition, their wges would likel go up s the
sought jobs in more open environment. as result,
during the interim period, tx pments would rise
nd the verge scl decit mong ormer unlwul
immigrnt households would ll.
ater 13 ers, unlwul immigrnts would
become eligible or mens-tested welre nd
Obmcre. at tht point or shortl thereter, or-
mer unlwul immigrnt households would likel
begin to receive government benets t the sme
rte s lwul immigrnt households o the sme
eduction level. as result, government spending
nd scl decits would increse drmticll.
The nl phse o mnest is retirement.
Unlwul immigrnts re not currentl eligible or
Socil Securit nd Medicre, but under mnest
the would become so. The cost o this chnge wouldbe ver lrge indeed.
as noted, t the current time (beore mnest),the verge unlwul immigrnt household hs
net decit (benets received minus txes pid) o
$14,387 per household.
During the interim phse immeditel termnest, tx pments would increse more thn
government benets, nd the verge scl de-
cit or ormer unlwul immigrnt households
would ll to $11,455.
at the end o the interim period, unlwul immi-grnts would become eligible or mens-tested
welre nd medicl subsidies under Obmcre.
averge benets would rise to $43,900 per
household; tx pments would remin round
$16,000; the verge scl decit (benets minus
txes) would be bout $28,000 per household.
amnest would lso rise retirement costs bmking unlwul immigrnts eligible or Socil
Securit nd Medicre, resulting in net scldecit o round $22,700 per retired mnest
recipient per er.
In terms o public polic nd government decits,
n importnt gure is the ggregte nnul decit
or ll unlwul immigrnt households. This equls
the totl benets nd services received b ll unlw-
ul immigrnt households minus the totl txes pid
b those households.
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vii
SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
Under current lw, ll unlwul immigrnt house-holds together hve n ggregte nnul decit o
round $54.5 billion.
In the interim phse (roughl the rst 13 erster mnest), the ggregte nnul decit
would ll to $43.4 billion.
at the end o the interim phse, ormer unlw ulimmigrnt households would become ull eligi-
ble or mens-tested welre nd helth cre ben-
ets under the aordble Cre act. The ggregte
nnul decit would sor to round $106 billion.
In the retirement phse, the nnul ggregte
decit would be round $160 billion. It wouldslowl decline s ormer unlwul immigrnts
grdull expire.
These costs would hve to be borne b lred
overburdened U.S. txpers. (all gures re in 2010
dollrs.)
The tpicl unlwul immigrnt is 34 ers old.
ater mnest, this individul will receive govern-
ment benets, on verge, or 50 ers. Restricting
ccess to benets or the rst 13 ers ter mnest
thereore hs onl mrginl impct on long-term
costs.I mnest is encted, the verge dult unlwul
immigrnt would receive $592,000 more in govern-
ment benets over the course o his remining lie-
time thn he would p in txes.
Over lietime, the ormer unlwul immigrnts
together would receive $9.4 trillion in government
benets nd services nd p $3.1 trillion in txes.
The would generte lietime scl decit (totl
benets minus totl txes) o $6.3 trillion. (all g-
ures re in constnt 2010 dollrs.) This should be
considered minimum estimte. It probbl under-
sttes rel uture costs becuse it undercounts thenumber o unlwul immigrnts nd dependents
who will ctull receive mnest nd underesti-
mtes signicntl the uture growth in welre nd
medicl benets.
The debte bout the scl consequences o
unlwul nd low-skill immigrtion is hmpered b
number o misconceptions. Few lwmkers rell
understnd the current size o government nd the
scope o redistribution. The ct tht the verge
household gets $31,600 in government benets ech
er is shock. The ct tht household heded b
n individul with less thn high school degree
gets $46,600 is bigger one.
Mn conservtives believe tht i n individul
hs job nd works hrd, he will inevitbl be net
tx contributor (ping more in txes thn he tkes
in benets). In our societ, this hs not been true or
ver long time. Similrl, mn believe tht unlw-
ul immigrnts work more thn other groups. This is
lso not true. The emploment rte or non-elderl
dult unlwul immigrnts is bout the sme s it is
or the generl popultion.
Mn policmkers lso believe tht becuse
unlwul immigrnts re comprtivel oung, the
will help relieve the scl strins o n ging soci-
et. Regrettbl, this is not true. at ever stge o thelie ccle, unlwul immigrnts, on verge, gener-
te scl decits (benets exceed txes). Unlwul
immigrnts, on verge, re lws tx consumers;
the never once generte scl surplus tht cn
be used to p or government benets elsewhere in
societ. This sitution obviousl will get much worse
ter mnest.
Mn policmkers believe tht ter mnes-
t, unlwul immigrnts will help mke Socil
Securit solvent. It is true tht unlwul immi-
grnts currentl p FICa txes nd would p
more ter mnest, but with verge ernings o$24,800 per er, the tpicl unlwul immigrnt
will p onl bout $3,700 per er in FICa txes.
ater retirement, tht individul is likel to drw
more thn $3.00 in Socil Securit nd Medicre
(djusted or intion) or ever dollr in FICa
txes he hs pid.
Moreover, txes nd benets must be viewed
holisticll. It is mistke to look t the Socil
Securit trust und in isoltion. I n individul
ps $3,700 per er into the Socil Securit trust
und but simultneousl drws net $25,000 per
er (benets minus txes) out o generl govern-ment revenue, the solvenc o government hs not
improved.
Following mnest, the scl costs o ormer
unlwul immigrnt households will be roughl the
sme s those o lwul immigrnt nd non-immi-
grnt households with the sme level o eduction.
Becuse U.S. government polic is highl redistrib-
utive, those costs re ver lrge. Those who clim
tht mnest will not crete lrge scl burden re
simpl in stte o denil concerning the underling
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viii
THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
redistributionl nture o government polic in the
21st centur.
Finll, some rgue tht it does not mtter wheth-
er unlwul immigrnts crete scl decit o $6.3
trillion becuse their children will m ke up or these
costs. This is not true. Even i ll the children o
unlwul immigrnts grduted rom college, the
would be hrd-pressed to p bck $6.3 trillion in
costs over their lietimes.
O course, not ll the children o unlwul immi-
grnts will grdute rom college. Dt on inter-
genertionl socil mobilit show tht, lthough
the children o unlwul immigrnts will hve sub-
stntill better eductionl outcomes thn their
prents, these chievements will hve limits. Onl
13 percent re likel to grdute rom college, or
exmple. Becuse o this, the children, on verge,
re not likel to become net tx contributors. The
children o unlwul immigrnts re likel to remin
net scl burden on U.S. txpers, lthough r
smller burden thn their prents.
a nl problem is tht unlw ul immigrtion
ppers to depress the wges o low-skill U.S.-born
nd lwul immigrnt workers b 10 percent, or
$2,300, per er. Unlwul immigrtion lso prob-
bl drives mn o our most vulnerble U.S.-born
workers out o the lbor orce entirel. Unlwul
immigrtion thus mkes it hrder or the lest
dvntged U.S. citizens to shre in the americn
drem. This is wrong; public polic should support
the interests o those who hve right to be here, not
those who hve broken our lws.
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
Introduction
Ech er, milies nd individuls p txes tothe government nd receive bck wide vri-et o services nd benets. a scl decit occurs
when the benets nd services received b one group
exceed the txes pid. When such decit occurs,
other groups must p or the services nd benets
o the group in decit. Ech er, thereore, govern-
ment is involved in lrge-scle economic trnsero resources between dierent socil groups.
Fiscl distribution nlsis mesures the dis-
tribution o totl government benets nd txes in
societ. It provides n ssessment o the mgnitude
o government trnsers between groups.
This pper provides scl distribution nlsis
o households heded b unlwul immigrnts: indi-
viduls who reside in the U.S. in v ioltion o ederl
lw. The pper mesures the totl government ben-
ets nd services received b unlwul immigrnt
households nd the totl txes pid. The dierence
between benets received nd txes pid repre-sents the totl resources trnserred b government
on behl o unlwul immigrnts rom the rest o
societ.
Identiying the UnlawulImmigrant Population
The U.S. Deprtment o Homelnd Securit
(DHS) estimtes tht there were 11.5 million undoc-
umented, or unlwul, oreign-born persons in the
U.S. in Jnur 2011.1 These estimtes re bsed on
the ct tht the number o oreign-born persons
ppering in U.S. Census surves is considerbl
greter thn the ctul number o oreign-born per-
sons who re permitted to reside lwull in the U.S.
ccording to immigrtion records.
For exmple, in Jnur 2011, some 31.95 million
oreign-born persons (who rrived in the countr
ter 1980) ppered in the nnul Census surve,
but the corresponding number o lwul oreign-born residents in tht er (ccording to govern-
ment dministrtive records) ws onl 21.6 million.2
DHS estimtes tht the dierencesome 10.35 mil-
lion oreign-born persons ppering in the Census
americn Communit Surve (aCS)ws com-
prised o unuthorized or unlwul residents. DHS
urther estimtes tht n dditionl 1.15 million
unlwul immigrnts resided in the U.S. but did not
pper in the Census surve, or totl o 11.5 mil-
lion unlwul residents.3
DHS emplos residul method to determine the
chrcteristics o the unlwul immigrnt popultion.First, immigrtion records re used to determine the
gender, ge, countr o origin, nd time o entr o
ll oreign-born lwul residents. Foreign-born per-
sons with these chrcteristics re subtrcted rom
the totl oreign-born popultion in Census records;
the letover, or residul, oreign-born popultion is
ssumed to be unlwul. This procedure enbles DHS
to estimte the ge, gender, countr o origin, dte o
entr, nd current U.S. stte o residence o the unlw-
ul immigrnt popultion in the U.S.
The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants
and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer
Robert Rector and Jason Richwine, PhD
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2
THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
The current Heritge Foundtion stud usesthe DHS reports on the chrcteristics o unlwul
immigrnts to identi in the Current Popultion
Surve (CPS) o the U.S. Census popultion o
oreign-born persons who hve ver high prob-
bilit o being unlwul immigrnts.4 (The Current
Popultion Surve is used in plce o the similr
americn Communit Surve becuse it hs more
detiled income nd benet inormtion.)
The procedures used to identi unlwul immi-
grnts in the CPS re similr to those used in studies
o the unlwul immigrnt popultion produced b
the Pew Hispnic Center, the Center or Immigrtion
Studies, nd the Migrtion Polic Institute. Selection
procedures included the ollowing:
1. The unlwul immigrnt popultion identied
in the CPS mtched s closel s possible the ge,
gender, countr o origin, er o rrivl, nd
stte o residence o the unlwul immigrnt pop-
ultion identied b DHS.
2. Foreign-born persons who were current or or-
mer members o the rmed orces o the U.S.
or current emploees o ederl, stte, nd
locl governments were ssumed to be lwul
residents.
3. Since it is unlwul or unlwul immigrnts
to receive government benets such s Socil
Securit, Medicre, Medicid, nd public housing,
individuls reporting personl receipt o such
benets were ssumed to be lwull resident.
4. Principles o consistenc were pplied within
milies; or exmple, children o lw ul residents
were ssumed to be lwul.
additionl inormtion on the procedures usedto identi unlwul immigrnts in the CPS is pro-
vided in appendix B. It should lso be noted tht the
Heritge Foundtion nlsis mtched the DHS g-
ures s closel s possible.5
The chrcteristics o the unlwul immigrnt
popultion estimted or the present nlsis re
shown in text Tble 1. In 2010, there were 11.5 mil-
lion unlwul immigrnts in the U.S. Some 10.34
million o these ppered in the nnul Current
Popultion Surve nd were identied b the resid-
ul method described bove. Following the DHS
estimte, n dditionl 1.15 million unlwul immi-grnts were ssumed to reside in the U.S. but not to
pper in Census surves.
as Tble 1 shows, 84 percent o unlw ul immi-
grnts cme rom Mexico, the Cribben, nd
Centrl or South americ; 11 percent cme rom
asi; nd 5 percent cme rom the rest o the world.
Unlwul immigrnts were lmost equll split b
gender: 54 percent were mles, nd 46 percent were
emles.
TaBLE 1
CharacteristicsoftheUnlawful
ImmigrantPopulation
SourcesHeritageFoundationcalculationsusingdataromtheUSCensusBureauCurrentPopulationSurveyCalculationsweredesignedtomatchguresromtheUSDepartmentoHomelandSecuritySeeAppendixTableormoreinormation
SR heritageorg
NumberofPersons
Total 11.5 million
AppearinginCensusRecords 10.34 million
NotinCensus 1.15 million
YearofArrival
45%
38%
Pre 18%
Age
Under 11%
to 13%
to 35%
to 29%
andolder 12%
Sex
Male 54%
Female 46%
RegionofOrigin
NorthandCentralAmerica 77%
Mexico 60%
Asia 11%
SouthAmerica 7%
Europe 2%
Other 3%
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
Characteristics o Unlawul Immigrantsand Unlawul Immigrant Households
an nlsis o the scl costs o unlwul immi-
grtion must del with the ct tht gret mn
unlwul immigrnts re prents o U.S.-born chil-
dren. For exmple, the Pew Hispnic Center esti-
mtes tht in 2010, there were 5.5 million children
residing in the U.S. who hve unlwul immigrnt
prents. among these children, some 1 million were
born brod nd were brought into the U.S. unlw-
ull; the remining 4.5 million were born in the U.S.
nd re treted under lw s U.S. citizens. Overll,some 8 percent o the children born in the U.S. ech
er hve unlwul immigrnt prents.6
The presence o these 4 million ntive-born chil-
dren with unlwul immigrnt prents is direct
result o unlwul immigrtion. These children
would not reside in the U.S. i their prents hd not
chosen to enter nd remin in the ntion unlwull.
Obviousl, n nlsis o the scl cost o unlwul
immigrtion must thereore include the costs sso-
cited with these children, becuse those costs re
direct nd inevitble result o the unlwul immi-
grtion o the prents. The costs would not exist in
the bsence o unlwul immigrtion.
To ddress tht issue, the present stud nlzes
the scl costs o ll households heded b unlw-
ul immigrnts. (Throughout this stud, the terms
households heded b n unlwul immigrnt
nd unlwul immigrnt households re used
snonmousl.)
In 2010, 3.44 million such households ppered
in the CPS. These households contined 12.7 million
persons including 7.4 million dults nd 5.3 millionchildren. among the children, some 930,000 were
unlwul immigrnts, nd 4.4 million were ntive-
born or lwul immigrnts.7
Tble 2 shows the chrcteristics o unlwul
immigrnt households in comprison to non-immi-
grnt nd lwul immigrnt households. Unlwul
immigrnt households re lrger thn other house-
holds, with n verge o 3.7 persons per house-
hold compred to 2.5 persons in non-immigrnt
households.8
HOUSEHOLDS HEADED BY:
Unlawful Immigrant Lawful Immigrant Non-Immigrant
Numberohouseholds 3,444,955 12,601,544 102,702,224
Numberopersonsinhousehold 12,708,875 39,089,280 253,161,268
Numberoearnersinhouseholds 5,417,751 18,082,129 127,598,880
Personsperhousehold 3.7 3.1 2.5
Adultsperhousehold 2.1 2.3 1.9
Childrenperhousehold 1.6 0.8 0.6
Earnersperhousehold 1.6 1.4 1.2
Earningsperhousehold $38,988 $59,071 $53,937
Earningsperworker $24,791 $41,167 $43,413
Averagehouseholdtotalincome $40,993 $68,931 $68,095
Medianageohouseholder 34 49 50
Percentohouseholdsheadedbypersonsandolder 0.6% 19.4% 22.3%
Percentopersonsinhouseholdwhowereorolder 1.1% 11.1% 13.7%
Percentopersonsinhouseholdwhowereto 59.7% 65.9% 65.7%
Percentopersonsinhouseholdwhowereunderage 42.3% 26.3% 23.4%
Percentopersonsinhouseholdwhoarepoor 35.1% 18.8% 13.6%
TaBLE 2
DemographicCharacteristicsofUSHouseholds
NoteTheguresorunlawulimmigranthouseholdsexcludemillionadultUScitizensandadultlawulimmigrantswhoresidedinthehouseholdSourceHeritageFoundationcalculationsbasedondataromtheUSCensusBureauCurrentPopulationSurvey
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Unlwul immigrnt households hve more wgeerners per household: 1.6 compred to 1.2 mong
non-immigrnt households. However, the ver-
ge ernings per worker re drmticll lower in
unlw ul immigrnt households: $24,791 per worker
compred to $43,413 in non-immigrnt households.
Contrr to conventionl wisdom, non-elderl dult
unlwul immigrnts re not more likel to work
thn re similr non-immigrnts.
The heds o unlwul immigrnt households
re ounger, with medin ge o 34 compred to
50 mong non-immigrnt householders. Prtl
becuse the re ounger, unlwul immigrnthouseholds hve more children, with n verge o
1.6 children per household compred to 0.6 mong
non-immigrnt households. The higher number o
children tends to rise governmentl costs mong
unlwul immigrnt households. (Both lwul nd
unlwul children in unlwul immigrnt house-
holds re eligible or public eduction, nd the lrge
number o children who were born in the U.S. re
lso eligible or mens-tested welre benets such
s ood stmps, Medicid, nd Childrens Helth
Insurnce Progrm benets.)
B contrst, there re ver ew elderl persons inunlwul immigrnt households. Onl 1.1 percent o
persons in those households re over 65 ers o ge
compred to 13.7 percent o persons in non-immigrnt
households. The bsence o elderl persons in unlw-
ul immigrnt households signicntl reduces cur-
rent government costs; however, i unlwul immi-
grnts remin in the U.S. permnentl, the number
who re elderl will obviousl increse signicntl.
Unlwul immigrnt households re r more
likel to be poor. Over one-third o unlwul
immigrnt households hve incomes below the ed-erl povert level compred to 18.8 percent o lw-
ul immigrnt households nd 13.6 percent o non-
immigrnt households.
Education Level o UnlawulImmigrant Households
The low wge level o unlwul immigrnt work-
ers is di rect result o their low eduction levels. as
Tble 3 shows, hl o unlwul immigrnt house-
holds re heded b persons without high school
degree; more thn 75 percent re heded b indi-
viduls with high school degree or less. Onl 10percent o unlwul immigrnt households re
heded b college grdutes. B contrst, mong
non-immigrnt households, 9.6 percent re heded
b persons without high school degree, round 40
percent re heded b persons with high school
degree or less, nd nerl one-third re heded b
college grdutes.
The current unlwul immigrnt popultion thus
contins disproportionte shre o poorl educt-
ed individuls. These individuls will tend to hve
low wges nd p comprtivel little in txes.
There is common misconception tht the loweduction levels o recent immigrnts re prt o
permnent historicl pttern nd tht the U.S.
hs lws dmitted immigrnts who were poor-
l educted reltive to the ntive-born popultion.
Historicll, this hs not been the cse. For exm-
ple, in 1960, recent immigrnts were no more likel
thn non-immigrnts to lck high school degree.
B 1998, recent immigrnts were lmost our times
more likel to lck high school degree thn were
non-immigrnts.9
HOUSEHOLDS HEADED BY:
Unlawful Immigrant Lawful Immigrant Non-Immigrant
Personswithoutahighschooldegree 50.7% 19.9% 9.6%
Personswithonlyahighschooldegree 26.6% 23.6% 29.8%
Personswithsomecollege 12.8% 20.1% 29.9%
Personswithacollegedegreeormore 9.9% 36.4% 30.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
TaBLE 3
HouseholdDifferencesinEducationLevel
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
as the reltive eduction level o immigrnts ell
in recent decdes, so did their reltive wge levels. In
1960, the verge immigrnt mle in the U.S. ctu-ll erned more thn the verge non-immigrnt
mle. as the reltive eduction levels o subsequent
wves o immigrnts ell, so did reltive wges. B
1998, the verge immigrnt erned 23 percent less
thn the verge non-immigrnt erned.10
Aggregate Cost oGovernment Benets and Services
an nlsis o the distribution o benets nd
txes within the U.S. popultion must begin with
n ccurte count o the cost o ll benets nd ser-
vices provided b the government. The size nd costo government is r lrger thn mn people img-
ine. In scl er (Fy) 2010, the expenditures o the
ederl government were $3.46 trillion. In the sme
er, expenditures o stte nd locl governments
were $1.94 trillion. The combined vlue o ederl,
stte, nd locl expenditures in Fy 2010 ws $5.4
trillion.11
This sum is so lrge tht it is difcult to compre-
hend. One w to grsp the size o government more
redil is to clculte verge expenditures per
household. In 2010, there were 120.2 million house-
holds in the U.S.12 (This gure includes both multi-
person milies nd single persons living lone.)The verge cost o government spending thus
mounted to $44,932 per household cross the U.S.
popultion.13
The $5.4 trillion in government expenditure is
not ree; it must be pid or b txing or borrowing
economic resources rom americns or b borrow-
ing rom brod. In Fy 2010, ederl txes mount-
ed to $2.12 trillion. Stte nd locl txes nd relted
revenues mounted to $1.98 trillion.14 Together, ed-
erl, stte, nd locl txes mounted to $4.11 trillion.
Txes nd relted revenues cme to 75 percent o
the $5.4 trillion in expenditures. The gp betweentxes nd spending ws nnced b government
borrowing.
Types o Government Expenditureater the ull cost o government benets nd
services hs been determined, the next step in n-
lzing the distribution o benets nd txes is to
determine the beneciries o specic government
progrms. Some progrms, such s Socil Securit,
netl prcel out benets to specic individuls.
CHART 1
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,2010 Current Population Survey. See Appendix tables for more information.
Note: Figures have been rounded.
Households by Education Level of Head of Household
heritage.orgSR 133
%
%
%
%
%
%
HighSchool
Graduate
SomeCollege
CollegeGraduate
No HighSchool
Diploma
51%
27%
13%10%
HighSchool
Graduate
SomeCollege
CollegeGraduate
No HighSchool
Diploma
20%
24%
20%
36%
HighSchool
Graduate
SomeCollege
CollegeGraduate
No HighSchool
Diploma
10%
30% 30% 31%
Unlawful Immigrant Households Lawful Immigrant Households Non-Immigrant Households
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With progrms such s these, it is reltivel es to
determine the identit o the benecir nd the
cost o the benet provided. On the other hnd, other
government unctions such s highw construc-
tion do not netl prcel out benets to individuls.
Determining the proper lloction o the benets o
tht tpe o progrm is more complex.
To determine the distribution o government
benets nd services, this stud begins b dividing
government expenditures into six ctegories: direct
benets, mens-tested benets, eductionl ser-
vices, popultion-bsed services, interest nd other
nncil obligtions resulting rom prior govern-
ment ctivit, nd pure public goods.
Direct Benets. Direct benet progrms
involve either csh trnsers or the purchse o spe-cic services or n individul. Unlike mens-tested
progrms, direct benet progrms re not limited to
low-income persons. B r the lrgest direct benet
progrms re Socil Securit nd Medicre. Other
substntil direct benet progrms re unemplo-
ment insurnce nd workers compenstion.
Direct benet progrms involve irl trnspr-
ent trnser o economic resources. The benets re
prceled out discretel to individuls in the popu-
ltion; both the recipient nd the cost o the benet
re reltivel es to determine. In the cse o Socil
Securit, the cost o the benet would equl thevlue o the Socil Securit check plus the dminis-
trtive costs involved in delivering the benet.
Clculting the cost o Medicre services is more
complex. Ordinril, government does not seek to
compute the prticulr medicl services received b
n individul. Insted, government counts the cost
o Medicre or n individul s equl to the verge
per cpit cost o Medicre services. (This number
equls the totl cost o Medicre services divided
b the totl number o recipients.15) Overll, gov-
ernment spent $1.33 trillion on direct benets in Fy
2010.Means-Tested Benets. Mens-tested pro-
grms re tpicll termed welre progrms.
Unlike direct benets, mens-tested progrms re
vilble onl to households tht ll below specic
income thresholds. Mens-tested welre progrms
provide csh, ood, housing, medicl cre, nd socil
services to poor nd low-income persons.
The ederl government opertes over 80 mens-
tested id progrms.16 The lrgest re Medicid; the
Erned Income Tx Credit (EITC); ood stmps;
Supplementl Securit Income (SSI); Section 8
housing; public housing; Temporr assistnce or
Need Fmilies (TaNF); school lunch nd brekst
progrms; the WIC (Women, Innts, nd Children)
nutrition progrm; nd the Socil Services Block
Grnt (SSBG). Mn mens-tested progrms, such
s SSI nd the EITC, provide csh to recipients.
Others, such s public housing or SSBG, p or ser-
vices tht re provided to recipients.
The vlue o Medicid benets is usull counted
much s the vlue o Medicre benets is counted.
Government does not ttempt to itemize the specic
medicl services given to n individul; insted, it
computes n verge per cpit cost o services to
individuls in dierent benecir ctegories such
s children, elderl persons, nd disbled dults.(The verge per cpit cost or prticulr group
is determined b dividing the totl expenditures
on the group b the totl number o beneciries in
the group.) Overll, the U.S. spent $835 billion on
mens-tested id in Fy 2010.17
Public Education. Government provides prim-
r, secondr, post-secondr, nd voctionl edu-
ction to individuls. In most cses, the government
ps directl or the cost o eductionl services pro-
vided. In other cses, such s the Pell Grnt progrm,
the government in eect provides mone to n eligible
individul who then spends it on eductionl services.Eduction is the single lrgest component o stte
nd locl government spending, bsorbing roughl
third o ll stte nd locl expenditures. The verge
cost o public primr nd secondr eduction per
pupil is now round $12,300 per er. Overll, ed-
erl, stte, nd locl governments spent $758 billion
on eduction in Fy 2010.
Population-Based Services. Wheres direct
benets, mens-tested benets, nd eduction ser-
vices provide discrete benets nd services to prtic-
ulr individuls, popultion-bsed progrms gener-
ll provide services to whole group or communit.Popultion-bsed expenditures include police nd
re protection, courts, prks, snittion, nd ood
set nd helth inspections. another importnt
popultion-bsed expenditure is trnsporttion,
especill rods nd highws.
a ke eture o popultion-bsed expenditures is
tht such progrms generll need to expnd s the
popultion o communit expnds. (This qulit
seprtes them rom pure public goods.) For exm-
ple, s the popultion o communit increses, the
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
number o police nd reghters will generll need
to expnd proportionll.
In The New Americans, stud o the scl costs
o immigrtion published b the Ntionl acdem
o Sciences, the Ntionl Reserch Council (NRC)
rgued tht i service remins xed while the popu-
ltion increses, progrm will become congested,
nd the qulit o service or users will deteriorte.
Thus, the NRC uses the term congestible goods to
describe popultion-bsed services.18 Highws re
n obvious exmple. In generl, the cost o popul-
tion-bsed services cn be llocted ccording to n
individuls estimted utiliztion o the serv ice or t
t per cpit cost cross the relevnt popultion.
a subctegor o popultion-bsed services is
government dministrtive support unctions suchs tx collections nd legisltive ctivities. Few
txpers view tx collection s government ben-
et; thereore, ssigning the cost o this benet
ppers to be problemtic.
The solution to this dilemm is to conceptulize
government ctivities into two ctegories: primr
unctions nd secondr unctions.
Primary unctions provide benets directl to thepublic; the include direct nd mens-tested ben-
ets, eduction, ordinr popultion-bsed ser-
vices such s police nd prks, nd public goods.
B contrst, secondary or support unctions donot provide direct benets to the public but do
provide necessr support services tht enble
the government to perorm primr unctions.
For exmple, no one cn receive ood stmp ben-
ets unless the government rst collects txes
to und the progrm. Secondr unctions cn
thus be considered n inherent prt o the cost
o production o primr unctions, nd the ben-
ets o secondr support unctions cn be llo-
cted mong the popultion in proportion to thelloction o benets rom government primr
unctions.
Government spent $871 billion on popultion-
bsed services in Fy 2010. O this mount, some
$769.6 billion went or ordinr services such s
police nd prks, nd $101.4 billion went or dmin-
istrtive support unctions.
Interest and Other Financial Obligations
Relating to Past Government Activities. Oten,
tx revenues re insufcient to p or the ull cost o
government benets nd services. In tht cse, gov-
ernment will borrow mone nd ccumulte debt. In
subsequent ers, interest pments must be pid to
those who lent the government mone. Interest p-
ments or the government debt re in ct prtil
pments or pst government benets nd services
tht were not ull pid or t the time o deliver.
Similrl, government emploees deliver services
to the public. Prt o the cost o the service is pid
or immeditel through the emploees slr, but
government emploees re lso compensted b
uture retirement benets. To considerble degree,
expenditures o public-sector retirement re there-
ore present pments in compenstion or servic-
es delivered in the pst. The expenditure ctegorinterest nd other nncil obligtions relting to
pst government ctivities thus includes interest
nd principl pments on government debt nd
outls or government emploee retirement. Totl
government spending on these items equled $533.3
billion in Fy 2010.19
While direct benets, mens-tested benets,
public eduction, nd popultion-bsed services
will grow s more immigrnts tke up residence
in the United Sttes, this is not the cse or inter-
est pments on the debt nd relted costs. These
costs were xed b pst government spending ndborrowing nd re lrgel unected, t lest in the
intermedite term, b immigrnts entr into the
United Sttes. While n incresed inow o immi-
grnts will led to n increse in most orms o gov-
ernment spending, it will not cuse n increse in
interest pments on government debt in the short
term.
To ssess the scl impct o unlwul immi-
grnts, thereore, the present report ollows the pro-
cedures used b the Ntionl Reserch Council in
The New Americans: Tht is, it ignores the costs o
interest on the debt nd similr nncil obligtionswhen clculting the net tx burden imposed b lw-
ul nd unlwul immigrnt households.20
On the other hnd, while unlwul immigrnt
households do not increse government debt imme-
ditel, such households will, on verge, increse
government debt signicntl over the long term.
For exmple, i n unlwul immigrnt house-
hold generted net scl decit (benets received
minus txes pid) o $20,000 per er nd roughl
20 percent o tht mount ws nnced ech er b
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
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government borrowing, then the immigrnt house-
hold would be responsible or dding roughl $4,000
to government debt ech er. ater 50 ers, the
mils contribution to growth in government debtwould be round $200,000. While these potentil
costs re signicnt, the re outside the scope o
the current pper nd re not included in the clcu-
ltions presented here.
Pure Public Goods. Economic theor distin-
guishes between privte consumption goods nd
pure public goods. Economist Pul Smuelson is
credited with rst mking this distinction. In his
seminl 1954 pper The Pure Theor o Public
Expenditure,21 Smuelson dened pure public
good (or wht he clled collective consumption
good) s good which ll enjo in common in the
sense tht ech individuls consumption o such
good leds to no subtrctions rom n other indi-viduls consumption o tht good. B contrst,
privte consumption good is good tht cn be
prceled out mong dierent individuls. Its use
b one person precludes or diminishes its use b
nother.
a clssic exmple o pure public good is light-
house: The ct tht one ship perceives the wrn-
ing becon does not diminish the useulness o the
lighthouse to other ships. another cler exmple o
governmentl pure public good would be uture
Government Expenditures
FederalExpenditures(millionsofdollars)
StateandLocalExpenditures
(millionsofdollars)TotalExpenditures(millionsofdollars)
AverageExpenditureper
Household(dollars)
Direct benets 1,185,313 147,875 1,333,188 $11,088
Means-tested benets 661,990 172,908 834,898 $6,944
Education benets 93,284 664,755 758,039 $6,304
Population-based services 249,187 622,368 871,554 $7,249
Interest and other spending due topast government services
224,403 308,943 533,347 $4,436
Pure public goods expenditures 1,049,394 22,193 1,071,586 $8,912
Total expenditures 3,463,571 1,939,041 5,402,612 $44,932
Total expenditures less public goodexpenditures and expenditures forpast services
2,189,774 1,607,905 3,797,679 $31,584
Government Revenues
FederalRevenues(millionsofdollars)
StateandLocalRevenues(millions
ofdollars)TotalRevenues
(millionsofdollars)
AverageRevenuesperHousehold
(dollars)
Taxes and ees 2,122,445 1,536,017 3,658,462 $30,427
Earnings on government assets(government employee retirement
unds, and related income)
448,555 448,555
Total government revenues 2,122,445 1,984,572 4,107,017
TaBLE 4
AggregateGovernmentExpendituresandRevenuesFY
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
cure or cncer produced b government-unded
reserch: The ct tht non-txpers would benet
rom this discover would neither diminish its ben-
et nor dd extr costs to txpers. B contrst, n
obvious exmple o privte consumption good is
hmburger: When one person ets it, it cnnot be
eten b others.
Direct benets, mens-tested benets, nd edu-
ction services re privte consumption goods in
the sense tht the use o benet or service b one
person precludes or limits the use o tht sme ben-
et b nother. (Two people cnnot csh the sme
Socil Securit check.) Popultion-bsed services
such s prks nd highws re oten mentioned s
public goods, but the re not pure public goods in
the strict sense described bove. In most cses, sthe number o persons using popultion-bsed ser-
vice (such s highws nd prks) increses, the ser-
vice must either expnd (t dded cost to txpers)
or become congested, in which cse its qulit will
be reduced. Consequentl, use o popultion-bsed
services such s police nd re deprtments b non-
txpers does impose signicnt extr costs on
txpers.
Government pure public goods re rre; the
include scientic reserch, deense, spending on vet-
erns, interntionl irs, nd some environmen-
tl protection ctivities such s the preservtion oendngered species. Ech o these unctions gener-
ll meets the criterion tht the benets received
b non-txpers do not result in loss o utilit or
txpers. Government pure public good expendi-
tures on these unctions equled $978 billion in Fy
2010. Interest pments on government debt nd
relted costs resulting rom public good spending in
previous ers dd n estimted dditionl cost o
$93.5 billion, bringing the totl public goods cost in
Fy 2010 to $1,071.5 billion.
an immigrnts entr into the countr nei-
ther increses the size nd cost o public goods nordecreses the utilit o those goods to txpers.
In contrst to direct benets, mens-tested bene-
ts, public eduction, nd popultion-bsed servic-
es, the ct tht unlwul nd low-skill immigrnt
households m benet rom public goods tht the
do not p or does not dd to the net tx burden on
other txpers.
This report thereore ollows the sme methods
emploed b the Ntionl Reserch Council in The
New Americans nd excludes public goods rom the
count o benets received b unlwul immigrnt
households.22 (For urther discussion o pure pub-
lic goods, see appendix G.)
Summary: Total Expenditures. as Tble 4
shows, overll government spending in Fy 2010
cme to $5.40 trillion. Direct benets hd n ver-
ge cost o $11,088 per household cross the whole
popultion, while mens-tested benets hd n
verge cost o $6,944 per household. Eduction
benets nd popultion-bsed services cost $6,304
nd $7,249 per household, respectivel. Interest p-
ments on government debt nd other costs relting
to pst government ctivities cost $4,436 per house-
hold. Pure public good expenditures comprised 20
percent o ll government spending nd hd n ver-
ge cost o $8,912 per household.Excluding spending on public goods, interest
on the debt, nd relted nncil obligtions, totl
spending cme to $31,584 per household cross the
entire popultion.
Taxes and RevenuesTotl txes nd revenues or ederl, stte, nd
locl governments mounted to $4.107 trillion in
Fy 2010. The ederl government received $2.12 tril-
lion in revenue, while stte nd locl governments
received $1.98 trillion.
a detiled brekdown o ederl, stte, nd locltxes is provided in appendix Tbles 6 nd 7. The big-
gest revenue genertor ws the ederl income tx,
which cost tx pers $899 billion in 2010, ollowed
b Federl Insurnce Contribution act (FICa) txes,
which rised $812 billion. Propert tx ws the big-
gest revenue producer t the stte nd locl levels,
generting $442 billion, while generl sles txes
gthered $285 billion.
Over 90 percent o the revenues shown in
appendix Tbles 6 nd 7 re conventionl t xes nd
revenues; the remining 9 percent ($449 billion) re
ernings rom government ssets, primril ssetsheld in stte nd locl government emploee pen-
sion unds. about one-qurter o these revenues
were used to und current retirement benets; the
rest were ccumulted or uture use.
Unlike generl txes, these ernings re not mn-
dtor trnsers rom the popultion to the govern-
ment, but rther represent n economic return on
ssets the government owns or controls. Becuse
the do not represent pments mde b households
to the government, these ernings re not included
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
in the scl blnce nlsis presented in the bod
o this pper. I the were included, the would lter
the scl blnce o current government retirees;
thereore, the re irrelevnt to the min topic o this
pper: the scl blnce o unlwul immigrnts.
Summary o Estimation MethodologyThe ccounting rmework used in the present
nlsis is the sme rmework emploed b the
Ntionl Reserch Council o the Ntionl acdem
o Sciences in The New Americans.23 Following thtrmework, the present stud:
1. Excludes public goods costs such s deense nd
interest pments on government debt;
2. Trets popultion-bsed or congestible services
s ull privte goods nd ssigns the cost o those
services to immigrnt households bsed either on
estimted use or on the immigrnt shre o the
popultion;24
3. Includes the welre nd eductionl costs o
immigrnt nd non-immigrnt minor children
nd ssigns those costs to the childs household;
4. assigns the welre nd eductionl costs o
minor U.S.-born children o immigrnt prents
in the immigrnt household; nd
5. assigns the cost o mens-tested nd direct ben-
ets ccording to the sel-reported use o those
benets in the CPS.
Clerl, n stud tht does not ollow this
rmework m rech ver dierent conclusions.
For exmple, n stud tht excludes the welre
benets nd eductionl services received b the
minor U.S.-born children o unlwul immigrnt
prents rom the costs ssigned to unlwul immi-
grnt households will rech ver dierent conclu-
sions bout the scl consequences o unlwul
immigrtion.
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithoutaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
IndividualsWithSomeCollege
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaCollegeDegreeor
More AllHouseholds
Government Benefits Received per Household
Direct benets $13,837 $13,301 $10,201 $8,713 $11,088
Educational benets $6,999 $5,847 $7,099 $5,730 $6,304
Means-tested benets $18,336 $8,070 $6,009 $2,227 $6,944
Population-based services $7,410 $6,941 $6,499 $8,169 $7,248
Total benefits and services $46,582 $34,159 $29,808 $24,839 $31,584
Taxes Paid per Household
Federal taxes paid $5,914 $10,837 $14,667 $31,533 $17,652
State and local taxes paid $5,554 $8,507 $9,455 $22,556 $12,775
Total taxes paid $11,469 $19,344 $24,122 $54,089 $30,426
Fiscal deficit or surplus perhousehold
$35,113 $14,815 $5,686 $29,250 $1,158
TaBLE 5
GovernmentBenefitsReceivedandTaxesPaidAllUSHouseholds
ALLFIGURESAREDOLLARSPERHOUSEHOLD
SourceHeritageFoundationcalculationsbasedondataromtheUSCensusBureauCurrentPopulationSurveySeeAppendixTablesormoreinormation SR heritageorg
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an importnt principle in the nlsis is tht
receipt o mens-tested benets nd direct benets
ws not imputed or ssigned to households rbitrri-l. Rther, the cost o benets received ws bsed
on the households sel-report o benets in the U.S.
Census Bureus Current Popultion Surve.25 For
exmple, the cost o the ood stmp benets received
is bsed on the ood stmp benets dt provided
b the household. I the household stted it did not
receive ood stmps, then the vlue o ood stmps
within the household would be zero.
Dt on ttendnce in public primr nd sec-
ondr schools were lso tken rom the CPS; stu-
dents ttending public school were then ssigned
eductionl costs equl to the verge per-pupilexpenditures in their stte. Public post-secondr
eduction costs were clculted in similr mnner.
Wherever possible, the cost o popultion-bsed
services ws bsed on the estimted utiliztion o
the service b unlwul immigrnt households. For
exmple, ech households shre o public trnspor-
ttion expenditures ws ssumed to be proportionl
to its shre o spending on public trnsporttion s
reported in the Bureu o Lbor Sttistics Consumer
Expenditure Surve (CEX). When dt on utiliztion
o service were not vilble, the households shre
o popultion-bsed services ws ssumed to equl
its shre o the totl U.S. popultion.Federl nd stte income txes were clculted
bsed on dt rom the CPS. FICa txes were lso
clculted rom CPS dt; both the emploer nd
emploee shre o FICa txes were ssumed to ll
on workers. Corporte income txes were ssumed
to be borne prtl b workers nd prtl b own-
ers; the distribution o these txes ws estimted
ccording to the distribution o ernings nd prop-
ert income in the CPS.
Sles, excise, nd propert tx pments were
bsed on consumption dt rom the Consumer
Expenditure Surve.26 For exmple, i the CEXshowed tht households heded b persons without
high school degree ccounted or 10 percent o ll
sles o tobcco products in the U.S., those house-
holds were ssumed to p 10 percent o ll tobcco
excise txes.
Certin specic djustments were mde or
unlwul immigrnt households. Since 45 percent
o unlwul immigrnts re believed to work o
the books, the ederl nd stte income tx nd
FICa tx pments tht Census imputes or ech
CHART 2
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,2010 Current Population Survey, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 ConsumerExpenditure Survey. Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendix.
Government Benefits Received and Taxes Paid: All U.S. Households, 2010BY EDUCATION OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
heritage.orgSR 133
BenefitsReceived
TaxesPaid
BenefitsReceived
TaxesPaid
BenefitsReceived
TaxesPaid
BenefitsReceived
TaxesPaid
No High SchoolDiploma
High SchoolGraduate
Some College College Graduate
Deficit:$35,113
Deficit:$14,815
Deficit:$5,686
Surplus:$29,250
$46,582
$11,469
$34,159
$19,344
$29,808
$24,122 $24,839
$54,089
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
NON-IMMIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS
ALLMONETARYFIGURESAREDOLLARSPERHOUSEHOLD
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithoutaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
IndividualsWithSomeCollege
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaCollegeDegreeor
More AllHouseholds
Number o households 10,083,618 31,099,306 30,986,396 31,857,640 104,026,960
Percentage o households 9.7% 29.9% 29.8% 30.6% 100.0%
Government Benefits Received per Household
Direct benets $16,461 $13,884 $10,454 $9,004 $11,617
Educational benets $4,930 $5,341 $6,897 $5,463 $5,802
Means-tested benets $19,150 $8,147 $6,091 $1,891 $6,685
Population-based services $6,408 $6,740 $6,490 $8,333 $7,121Totalbenefitsandservices
Taxes Paid per Household
Federal taxes paid $5,387 $10,944 $14,762 $31,878 $17,954
State and local taxes paid $5,509 $8,525 $9,447 $23,068 $12,961
Totaltaxespaid
Fiscal deficit or surplus perhousehold
$36,053 $14,642 $5,722 $30,255 $310
LAWFUL IMMIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS
ALLMONETARYFIGURESAREDOLLARSPERHOUSEHOLD
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithoutaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
IndividualsWithSomeCollege
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaCollegeDegreeor
More
AllHouseholdsWithLawful
ImmigrantHeads
Number o households 2,558,106 3,015,088 2,561,737 4,631,877 12,766,808
Percentage o households 20.0% 23.6% 20.1% 36.3% 100.0%
Government Benefits Received per Household
Direct benets $12,212 $10,639 $9,094 $7,204 $9,398
Educational benets $9,786 $8,748 $8,873 $7,213 $8,424
Means-tested benets $19,762 $10,093 $7,022 $3,549 $9,040
Population-based services $8,439 $8,030 $7,487 $9,017 $8,361
Totalbenefitsandservices
Taxes Paid per Household
Federal taxes paid $7,207 $10,897 $15,416 $30,897 $18,320
State and local taxes paid $6,000 $8,287 $9,572 $20,614 $12,559
Totaltaxespaid
Fiscal deficit or surplus perhousehold
$36,993 $18,327 $7,489 $24,529 $4,344
TaBLE 6
GovernmentBenefitsReceivedandTaxesPaidperHousehold(Pageof)
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UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS
ALLMONETARYFIGURESAREDOLLARSPERHOUSEHOLD
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithoutaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaHighSchool
Degree
HouseholdsHeadedby
IndividualsWithSomeCollege
HouseholdsHeadedby
PersonsWithaCollegeDegreeor
More
AllHouseholdsWithUnlawful
ImmigrantHeads
Number o households 1,746,857 916,231 440,179 341,688 3,444,955
Percentage o households 51% 27% 13% 10% 100%
Government Benefits Received per Household
Direct benets $45 $50 $47 $19 $44
Educational benets $15,514 $13,067 $10,501 $9,508 $13,627
Means-tested benets $6,235 $3,755 $2,006 $815 $4,497
Population-based services $7,554 $6,033 $5,039 $4,783 $6,553Totalbenefitsandservices
Taxes Paid per Household
Federal taxes paid $4,284 $4,694 $6,160 $10,339 $5,233
State and local taxes paid $4,579 $4,418 $4,869 $9,901 $5,101
Totaltaxespaid
Fiscal deficit or surplus perhousehold
$20,485 $13,794 $6,564 $5,115 $14,387
TaBLE 6
GovernmentBenefitsReceivedandTaxesPaidperHousehold(Pageof)
NoteThecountohouseholdsincludeshouseholdsintheCurrentPopulationSurveyandasmallnumberopersonsresidinginnursinghomesSourceHeritageFoundationcalculationsbasedondataromtheUSCensusBureauCurrentPopulationSurveySeeAppendixtablesormoreinormation
SR heritageorg
household were reduced b 45 percent mong
unlwul immigrnt households. The vlues o the
Erned Income Tx Credit nd additionl Child Tx
Credit tht Census imputes bsed on mil income
were reduced to zero or unlw ul immigrnt m-
ilies since the re not eligible or those benets.
Immigrnt children enrolled in government medicl
progrms were ssumed to hve hl the ctul cost
o non-immigrnt children.27 and unlwul immi-grnt milies were ssumed to use prks, highws,
nd librries less thn lwul households with the
sme income.
Finll, bout 9 percent o the persons in unlw-
ul immigrnt households re dult lwul immi-
grnts or U.S. citizens. The benets received nd
txes pid b these individuls hve been excluded
rom the nlsis. The overll methodolog o the
stud is described in detil in the appendices.
Distribution o Government Benetsand Taxes in the U.S. Population
Tble 5 shows government benets received nd
txes pid b the verge household in the whole
U.S. popultion. In Fy 2010, the verge household
received totl o $31,584 in government direct ben-
ets, mens-tested benets, eduction, nd popu-
ltion-bsed services. The household pid $30,426
in ederl, stte, nd locl txes. Since the benetsreceived exceeded txes pid, the verge household
hd scl decit o $1,158 tht hd to be nnced b
government borrowing.
I ernings in government emploee retirement
unds were included in the nlsis, this smll
verge household decit would be lrgel ersed.
Nonetheless, these gures show tht the txes pid
b U.S. households overll brel cover the cost
o immedite services received (direct benets,
mens-tested id, eduction, nd popultion-bsed
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
services).28 Public goods such s deense nd inter-
est on government debt re unded b government
borrowing.
However, these verge household gures msk
gret dierences between dierent tpes o house-
holds. Individul households hve dierent scl
blnces. Mn households renet tax contributors:
The txes the p exceed the direct nd mens-
tested benets, eduction, nd popultion-bsed
services the receive. These households generte
scl surplus tht government uses to nnce ben-
ets nd services or other households. B contrst,
other households re net tx consumers: The govern-
ment benets nd services received b these house-
holds exceed txes pid. These households generte
scl decit tht must be nnced b txes rom
other households or b government borrowing.
Tble 5 shows tht criticl ctor in determin-
ing the scl blnce o household is the eduction
o the hed o household. Individuls with higher
eduction levels ern more, p more in txes, nd
receive ewer government benets. Less-educted
individuls tend to receive more in government ben-
ets nd p less in txes.
Chrt 2 shows the verge scl blnce or llU.S. households bsed on the eduction level o the
hed o household. at one extreme re households
with college-educted heds; on verge, these
households receive $24,839 in government benets
while ping $54,089 in txes. The verge college-
educted household thus genertes scl surplus o
$29,250 tht government uses to nnce benets or
other households.
at the other extreme re households heded b
persons without high school degree. On verge,
these households receive $46,582 in government
benets (direct, mens-tested, eduction, nd pop-ultion-bsed services) while ping onl $11,469 in
txes. This genertes n verge scl decit (ben-
ets received minus txes pid) o $35,113.
The lrge verge scl decit o less-educt-
ed households hs bering on the immigrtion
debte becuse immigrnt milies (both lwul
nd unlwul) hve, on verge, r lower eduction
levels thn non-immigrnts. For exmple, s Tble 3
shows, hl o unlwul immigrnt household heds
do not hve high school degree, nd nother 27 per-
cent hve onl high school diplom.
Household Fiscal Balancesand Immigration
Tble 6 shows the scl blnce or non-immi-
grnt, lwul immigrnt, nd unlwul immigrnt
households. Unlwul immigrnt households hve
the lrgest nnul scl decits t $14,387 per house-
hold. Lwul immigrnt households hve n verge
nnul scl decit o $4,344, nd non-immigrnt
households hve decit o $310, mening tht txes
pid roughl equl benets received.29
CHART 3
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from theU.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current Population Survey, and U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure Survey.Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendices.
Government Expenditures for
Benefits and Services for UnlawfulImmigrant Households
heritage.orgSR 133
AVERAGEEXPENDITUREPERHOUSEHOLD
Total: $24,721
Education
Means-Tested Welfare
Police, Fire, and PublicSafety
Direct Benefits
Administrative Support
Transportation
Other Population-Based
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Lwul i mmigrnt households hve higher scl
decits thn non-immigrnts or two resons. The
rst is lower eduction levels; 20 percent o lw-
ul immigrnt households re heded b individu-
ls without high school diplom, compred to 10
percent mong non-immigrnt households. The
second reson is high levels o welre use. There
is populr misconception tht immigrnts use
little welre. The opposite is true. In ct, lwul
immigrnts receive the highest level o welre
benets.
at $9,040, lwul immigrnts nnul welre
benets re third higher thn non-immigrnts
benets. This seems prdoxicl becuse lwul
immigrnts re brred rom receiving nerl ll
mens-tested welre during their rst ve ers in
the U.S. as Tble 6 shows, this temporr bn hs
virtull no impct on the overll use o welre
becuse () the bn does not ppl to children born
inside the U.S. nd (b) receipt o welre occurs con-
tinull throughout lietime nd thereore is little
ected b ve- or 10-er mortorium on receipt
o id.
The lck o eectiveness o the ve-er bn on
welre receipt in controlling totl welre costs hs direct bering on the debte bout mnest legisl-
tion. It is noteworth tht the highest level o welre
use shown in Tble 6 is $19,762 per household per
er mong lwul immigrnt households heded
b individuls without high school diplom. This
gure is importnt becuse similr levels o welre
use cn be expected mong unlwul immigrnt
households receiving mnest.
another importnt point is tht the level o wel-
re benets received b unlwul immigrnt house-
holds is signicnt, despite the ct tht unlwul
immigrnts themselves re ineligible or nerl llwelre id. The welre benets received b unlw-
ul immigrnt households go to U.S.-born children
within these homes. I undocumented dults within
these households re given ccess to mens-tested
welre progrms, per-household benets will rech
ver high levels.
Cost o Government Benets andServices Received by UnlawulImmigrant Households
as noted, in 2010, some 3.44 million unlwul
immigrnt households ppered in Census surves.appendix Tble 8 shows the estimted costs o gov-
ernment benets nd services received b these
households in 73 seprte expenditure ctegories.
The results re summrized in Chrt 3.
Overll, households heded b n unlwul immi-
grnt received n verge o $24,721 per household
in direct benets, mens-tested benets, eduction,
nd popultion-bsed services in Fy 2010. Eduction
spending on behl o these households verged
$13,627, nd mens-tested id (going minl to the
CHART 4
Source: Heritage Foundations calculations based on data fromthe U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current Population Survey, andU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer ExpenditureSurvey. Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendix.
Taxes Paid by Households
Headed by Persons Without aHigh School Diploma
heritage.orgSR 133
AVERAGEANNUALTAXESPERHOUSEHOLD
Total: $10,334
Federal InsuranceContribution Act(FICA) Taxes
Federal Individual IncomeTaxes
State and Local PropertyTaxes
Miscellaneous Taxes
Corporate Income Tax(Federal and State)
Labor Taxes
Federal Excise Taxes andCustoms Duties
State Lottery Purchases
State Individual Income Tax
State and Local Sales andConsumption Taxes
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
U.S.-born children in the mil) verged $4,497.
Spending on police, re, nd public set cme to
$3,656 per household. Trnsporttion dded noth-
er $662, nd dministrtive support services cost
$958. Direct benets cme to $44. Miscellneous
popultion-bsed services dded nl $1,277.Taxes and Revenues Paid by Unlawul
Immigrant Households. appendix Tble 9 detils
the estimted txes nd revenues pid b unlwul
immigrnt households in 34 ctegories. The results
re summrized in Chrt 4.
Totl ederl, stte, nd locl txes pid b
unlwul immigrnt households verged $10,334
per household in 2010. Federl nd stte individu-
l income txes comprised less thn th o totl
txes pid. Insted, txes on consumption nd
emploment (FICa) produced nerl hl o the tx
revenue or unlwul immigrnt households. (The
nlsis ssumes tht workers p both the emplo-
er nd emploee shre o FICa tx.) Propert txes
(shited to renters) nd corporte prot txes (shit-
ed to workers) lso orm signicnt prt o the tx
burden.
It is worth noting tht FICa nd income txes
reported in Chrt 4 hve been reduced becusethe nlsis ssumes tht 45 percent o unlwul
immigrnt erners work o the books. I ll unlw-
ul immigrnt workers were emploed on the books,
these tx pments would increse signicntl.
Balance o Taxes and Benets. On verge,
unlwul immigrnt households received $24,721
per household in government benets nd serv ices in
Fy 2010. This gure includes direct benets, mens-
tested benets, eduction, nd popultion-bsed
services received b the household but excludes the
CHART 5
Notes: All figures are for 2010. The figures for unlawfulimmigrant households exclude 1.1 million adult U.S. citizens and
adult lawful immigrants who resided in the household.Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data fromthe U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current Population Survey, andU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer ExpenditureSurvey. Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendix.
Unlawful Immigrant Households:
Earnings, Government Benefits,and Taxes
heritage.orgSR 133
AnnualHousehold
Earnings
AnnualGovernment
BenefitsReceived
AnnualGovernmentTaxes Paid
$38,988
$24,721
$10,334
CHART 6
Note: Figures are averages per household.Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data fromthe U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current Population Survey, andU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure
Survey. Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendix.
* Direct benefits, means-tested benefits, education, andpopulation-based services.
Unlawful Immigrant Households:
Average Fiscal Deficit perHousehold Equals $14,387
heritage.orgSR 133
AverageTaxes Paid
AverageBenefits*Received
Net FiscalDeficit
$10,344
$24,721
$14,387
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
cost o public goods, interest on the government debt,
nd other pments or prior government unctions.
B contrst, unlwul immigrnt households onverge pid onl $10,334 in txes. Thus, unlwul
immigrnt households received $2.40 in benets
nd services or ech dollr pid in txes.
Mn politicins believe tht households tht
mintin sted emploment re invribl net tx
contributors, ping more in txes thn the receive
in government benets. Chrt 5 shows wh this is
not the cse. as Tble 2 shows, unlwul immigrnt
households hve high levels o emploment, with 1.6
erners per household nd verge nnul ernings
o round $39,000 or ll workers in the household.
But with verge government benets t $24,721,unlwul immigrnt households ctull receive
63 cents in government benets or ever dollr o
ernings.
To chieve scl blnce, with txes equl to ben-
ets, the verge unlwul immigrnt household
would hve to p nerl two-thirds o its income in
txes. Given this simple ct, it is obvious tht unlw-
ul immigrnt households cn never p enough
txes to cover the cost o their current government
benets nd services.
Net Annual Fiscal Decit. The net scl de-
cit o household equls the cost o benets nd ser-
vices received minus txes pid. as Chrt 6 shows,when the costs o direct nd mens-tested benets,
eduction, nd popultion-bsed services re count-
ed, the verge unlwul immigrnt household hd
scl decit o $14,387 (government expenditures o
$24,721 minus $10,334 in txes) in 2010.
For the verge unlwul immigrnt household
to become scll solvent, with txes pid equling
immedite benets received, it would be necessr
to increse the households tx pments to 240 per-
cent o current levels. alterntivel, unlwul immi-
grnt households could become solvent onl i ll
mens-tested welre nd nerl ll public educ-tion benets were eliminted.
Age Distribution o Benets and Taxes
Among Unlawul Immigrant Households. Mn
politicl decision mkers believe tht becuse
unlwul immigrnt workers re comprtivel
oung, the cn help to relieve the scl strins o n
ging societ. Chrts 7 nd 8 show wh this is not the
cse. These chrts seprte the 3.44 million unlw-
ul immigrnt households into ve ctegories bsed
on the ge o the hed o household.
CHART 7
Note: Benefits include direct and means-tested benefits, public education, and population-based services. Lawful residentsare included in these figures.Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current Population Survey, andU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Summaries of data sets are provided in the Appendix.
AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
Benefits Received and Taxes Paid by Unlawful ImmigrantHouseholds, by Age of Head of Household
heritage.orgSR 133
Under 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
$12,335$11,112
$13,045
$9,978$11,524
$24,726
$27,082$28,345
$29,361
$21,123
Taxes PaidImmediate Benefitsand Services Received
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
The benets levels in Chrt 7 gin include
direct benets, mens-tested benets, public educ-tion, nd popultion-bsed services. These benets
strt t $24,726 or households heded b immi-
grnts under 25 ers o ge nd rise to $28,000 to
$29,000 per er s the heds o household rech
their 30s nd 40s. The increse is driven b rise in
the number o children in ech home. as the ge o
the hed o household reches the lte 50s, the num-
ber o children in the home lls, nd benets dip to
round $21,000 per er. annul tx pments vr
little b the ge o the householder, verging round
$12,000 per er in ech ge brcket.
The criticl ct shown in Chrt 7 nd Chrt 8 istht, or ech ge ctegor, the benets received b
unlwul immigrnt households exceed the txes pid.
at no point in the lie ccle does the verge unlwul
immigrnt household p more in txes thn it tkes
out in benets. In ech ge ctegor, unlwul immi-
grnt households receive roughl $2.00 in govern-
ment benets or ech dollr pid in txes. Between
ges 45 nd 54 (generll considered prime erning
ers), unlwul immigrnts ctull receive nerl
$3.00 in benets or ech dollr pid in txes.
These gures belie the notion tht government
cn relieve nncil strins in Socil Securitnd other progrms simpl b importing ounger
unlwul immigrnt workers. The scl impct o n
immigrnt worker is determined r more b educ-
tion nd skill level thn b ge. Low-skill immigrnt
workers (whether lwul or unlwul) impose net
drin on government nnce s soon s the enter
the countr nd dd signicntl to those costs
ever er the remin.
Chrt 8 shows the net scl decits (benets
minus txes) or ech ge ctegor. The scl de-
cits rech pek o over $19,000 per er or house-
holds with heds between 45 nd 54 ers old. Theverge decit then lls to round $10,000 per er
or households with heds between 55 nd 64 ers
old. The number o unlwul immigrnt households
declines shrpl with ge. There re ver ew unlw-
ul immigrnt households with heds over ge 65.
Aggregate Annual Net Fiscal Costs. In 2010,
3.44 million unlwul immigrnt households
ppered in the Current Popultion Surve. The
verge net scl decit per household ws $14,387.
Most experts believe tht t lest 350,000 more
CHART 8
Notes: Fiscal deficit equals benefits and services received minus taxes paid. Benefits include direct and means-tested benefits, public education, and population-based services. Lawful residents are included in these figures.Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Current PopulationSurvey, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Summaries of data sets areprovided in the Appendices.
AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD
Annual Fiscal Deficit per Unlawful Immigrant Household,by Age of Head of Household
heritage.orgSR 133
Under 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
$12,391
$15,970$15,299
$19,383
$9,599
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SPECIAL REPORT | NO. 133May 6, 2013
unlwul immigrnt households resided in the U.S.
but were not reported in the CPS.
assuming tht the scl decit or these unre-
ported households ws the sme s the scl decit
or the unlwul immigrnt households in the CPS,
the totl nnul scl decit (totl benets received
minus totl txes pid) or ll 3.79 million unlwulimmigrnt households together equled $54.5 billion
(the decit o $14,387 per household times 3.79 million
households). This sum includes direct nd mens-test-
ed benets, eduction, nd popultion-bsed services.
Adjusting Future Decit Estimates orthe Potential Impact o the 2010Recession
In 2010, the econom ws in recession. In
recession, overll income nd tx revenue will be
lower; some benets such s unemploment insur-
nce will be drmticll higher. The recession
m thereore hve incresed the scl decit o
unlwul immigrnt households reltive to non-
recession ers. However, the impct o reces-
sion will not be uniorm cross ll socioeconomic
groups.Evidence suggests tht the recession hd t best
modest impct on the scl sttus o unlwul
immigrnt households. For exmple, while incomes
dropped signicntl during the recession, most o
the drop occurred in propert income; the Ntionl
Income nd Product accounts (which mesure the
whole econom) show tht totl nominl wges ell
b onl 2.3 percent rom 2008 to 2010. Some 95 per-
cent o the income o unlwul immigrnt house-
holds comes rom wges.
CHART 9
Note: Figures show total federal and state means-tested welfare spending on cash, food, housing, medical care, and social services.Source: The Heritage Foundation, from current and previous Oce of Management and Budget documents and other ocial government sources.
IN BILLIONS OF CONSTANT 2011 DOLLARS
Total Federal and State Means-Tested Welfare Spending, 19652011
heritage.orgSR 133
2011: $927 billion
1965:$64 billion
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THE FISCAL COST OF UNLAWFUL IMMIGRANTS
AND AMNESTY TO THE U.S. TAXPAYER
as mesured in the CPS, the constnt-dollr
income o the verge unlwul immigrnt house-
hold ws the sme in 2010 s in 2006. The mesured
income o unlwul immigrnts m be compr-
tivel stble during recession becuse unemploed
unlwul immigrnts return to their countr o
origin nd thereb dispper rom Census records.
I the verge unlwul immigrnt household lost
income during the recession, the drop ws modest.
Wht bout welre spending? There is popu-
lr conception tht welre spending is like roller
coster, rising shrpl during recession nd lling
when the recession ends. This pttern pplies some-
wht to ood stmps but not to mens-tested welre
in generl. Historicll, overll mens-tested spend-
ing does rise during recession but does not llnoticebl when the recession ends.
This pttern is shown in Chrt 9, which shows
totl mens-tested spending over time djusted or
intion. The chrt shows drmtic rise in costs
over time. Periods o rpid increse re ollowed b
spending plteus, but there re no signicnt dips
in post-recession periods. Following this pttern,
the Obm budget shows tht constnt-dollr per
cpit mens-tested spending will not decline over
the next decde.30
Despite these cvets, the estimtes o uture s-
cl decits in the rest o this pper will be djustedor the potentil eects o the recession on the 2010
dt. Specicll, the nlsis reduces uture unem-
ploment benets nd ood stmp benets b 66 per-
cent nd 25 percent below 2010 levels, respectivel.
These djustments re rml bcked b evidence nd
included in ll o the gures on uture-er decits.
In ddition, the nlsis increses uture tx p-
ments b unlwul immigrnts upwrd b 5 per-
cent nd reduces uture overll mens-tested wel-
re benets downwrd b 5 percent to compenste
or the impct o the recession on 2010 dt. These
djustments re more specultive; their impct isshown seprtel in Tble 7 nd in subsequent tbles.
The ltter djustments reduce projected uture s-
cl decits mong unlwul immigrnt households
b bout 5 percent.
Fiscal Impact o Amnestyor Earned Citizenship
In recent ers, Congress hs considered vri-
ous comprehensive immigrtion reorm proposls.
One ke eture o these proposls hs been tht
ll or most current unlwul immigrnts would be
llowed to st in the U.S. nd become U.S. citizens.
In most legisltive proposls, mnest or erned
citizenship would hve three phses. First, unlw-
ul immigrnts would be plced in provisionl st-
tus tht would llow them to remin in the U.S. lw-
ull. ater ve to 10 ers in this provisionl sttus,
most ormer unlwul immigrnts would be grnted
legl permnent resident (LPR) sttus. ater ve
ers in LPR sttus, the individuls would be llowed
to become U.S. citizens. The intervl between initil
mnest nd citizenships would thus stretch or 10
to 15 ers or longer.
The scl impct o mnest would vr gretl
depending on the time period exmined. The pres-
ent pper will nlze the scl consequences omnest in our phses.
Phase 1: Current Law or Status Quo. This is thescl sttus t the present time prior to mnest.
Phase 2: The Interim Phase. This phse wouldinclude the period in which mnest recipients
were in provisionl sttus ollowed b the rst ve
ers o legl permnent residence. During the
interim phse, tx revenues would go up s more
ormer unlwul immigrnts begn to work on
the books but would remin brred rom receiv-ing mens-tested welre nd probbl Obmcre
helth cre subsidies. The overll net scl cost o
the ormer unlwul immigrnt popultion could
be expected to decline slightl during this period.
The length nd progrmmtic boundries o the
interim phse would obviousl vr in dierent
bills, but ve to 15 ers would be tpicl.
Phase 3: Full Implementation o Amnesty. atthe end o the interim phse, ll mnest bills
would provide the mnest recipients (ormer
unlwul immigrnts) with ull eligibilit ormore thn 80 mens-tested welre progrms s
well s helth cre subsidies under the aordble
Cre act (aCa, or Obmcre). The resulting
increse in outls would be substntil.
Phase 4: Retirement Years. Under cur-rent lw, unlwul immigrnts re not eligible
or Socil Securit nd Medicre benets. all
mnest legisltion would llow recipients o
mnest to obtin eligibilit or these progrms.
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