Ike Chioke Managing Director · 2019. 10. 15. · fundamentals: oil price crash, MPR hike and...
Transcript of Ike Chioke Managing Director · 2019. 10. 15. · fundamentals: oil price crash, MPR hike and...
www.afrinvest .com
6th October 2015
Ike ChiokeManaging Director
Page 2
OUTLINE
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Prof ile of Indust ry Developments
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
Page 3
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Prof ile of Indust ry Developments
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 4
GDP Growth Rate in Nigeria
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: NBS, Afrinvest Research
3
8
7
6
7
8
5
4
5
6
4
5
6.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
GDP Growth (%) Average
Page 5
Brent Crude 10-Year Price History
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: Bloomberg, Afrinvest Research
(US$/b)
66
127
96
112
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
03-Jan-05 03-Jan-06 03-Jan-07 03-Jan-08 03-Jan-09 03-Jan-10 03-Jan-11 03-Jan-12 03-Jan-13 03-Jan-14 03-Jan-15
Extended period of stable prices
above US$100/b.
2008/2009 crash
Current price collapse due to
oversupply, slow global growth,
price war between OPEC and
Shale Oil producers
Market recovery
Page 6
External Reserves vs. Crude Oil Price
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: CBN, Bloomberg, Afrinvest Research
(US$
’ B
n)
(US$
)
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
110.0
130.0
150.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Reserves (LHS) Crude Oil (RHS)
Page 7
FGN Budget Profile
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: CBN, FM F, Afrinvest Research
0.20.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
0.40.4
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
0.90.8
1.11.3
1.51.3
0.6
1.5
1.8
1.71.6
1.71.8
0.9
0.4
0.60.7 0.7
0.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(N’t
n)
Statutory Transfers Debt Service Capital Expenditure Personnel Cost Others
4.2
3.8
4.54.8 4.6
4.5
Page 8
Fiscal Deficit: Absolute vs. % of GDP
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: FM F, CBN, Afrinvest Research
(N’bn)
1,021.91,068.8
1,104.4
862.2
960.0
1,055.2
828.6
1,075.1
1,298.1
1,492.2
1,253.6
633.5
2% 2%
2%
1%1%
1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fiscal Deficit (N' bn) Capital Expensditure (N' bn) Deficit As a % of GDP
Page 9
Interbank Exchange Rate
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: CBN, FM DQ, Afrinvest Research
(N:U
S$
)
154157
174
190
202
199
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
03-Jan-05 03-Jan-06 03-Jan-07 03-Jan-08 03-Jan-09 03-Jan-10 03-Jan-11 03-Jan-12 03-Jan-13 03-Jan-14 03-Jan-15
Plunging oil price
driven FX pressure
November 2014
Devaluation
RDAS Shutdown in
Feb 2015
SLS Era of Defending
the Naira
Soludo’s Era of
Banking
Consolidation and
dovish monetary
policy
Page 10
Inflation Progression
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: NBS, Afrinvest Research
14
16
13
11
9
11
13
11
12
10
9
8
9
88
9
8 8
8 9
9
9
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cost push inflation after direct and
indirect devaluation of the Naira,
fuel scarcity and FX restrictions on
41 items
%
Page 11
Interest Rate Divergence (%)
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: CBN, Afrinvest Research
13.0
16.9
26.6
3.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
23.0
28.0
2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 2015
MPR
Prime Lending Rate of Commercial Banks
Maximum Lending Rate of Commercial Banks
%
Page 12
Nigerian Stock Exchange - All Share Index
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: NSE, Afrinvest Research
10,000.0
20,000.0
30,000.0
40,000.0
50,000.0
60,000.0
70,000.0
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Post -consolidat ion
Stock market bubble
Global f inancial
crisis t riggered
stock market crash
2012/13 Market
recovery
Market rout act ivated
by polit ical
uncertainty and
plunging Crude oil
prices
Page 13
Nigerian Stock Exchange - All Share Index (52-Wks)
MACROECONOMIC REVIEW
Source: NSE, Afrinvest Research
25000.0
27000.0
29000.0
31000.0
33000.0
35000.0
37000.0
39000.0
41000.0
43000.0
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Market decline due
to long w ait for
Cabinet
Elect ion
postponement &
Shut dow n of the
RDAS
Post elect ion Buhari
Rally
Plunge in Global
Crude Oil Prices and
Naira Devaluat ion
Page 14
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Prof ile of Indust ry Developments
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 15
Assets, Loans and Deposits Growth
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
2.2
2.83.1
3.8
1.1 1.21.4
1.7
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
2001 2002 2003 2004
Tri
llio
ns Commercial Bank Total Assets
Commercial Banks Total Loans
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2001 2002 2003 2004
Tri
llio
ns
Total Assets and Loans (N’tn)
Industry Total Deposits (N’tn)
Source: CBN, Afrinvest Research
Pre – Consolidation Era
Page 16
Consolidation Era - Soludo
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
Total Assets and Loans (N’tn)
Source: CBN, Afrinvest Research
2.2
3.5
5.5
8.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2005 2006 2007 2008
Tri
llio
ns
Total Deposits (N’tn)
4.5
7.2
11.0
15.9
2.2 2.2
4.0
6.3
2.0
5.0
8.0
11.0
14.0
17.0
2005 2006 2007 2008
Tri
llio
ns
Total Assets (N)
Total Loans (N)
Assets, Loans and Deposits Growth
Page 17
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
22%
8%
37%
4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Pre-Consolidat ion - 2004 Post - Consolidat ion - 2007 2009 - Banking Crises Post CBN Clean-up - 2012
Source: CBN, Afrinvest Research
Industry Non Performing Loans Ratio (%)
Page 18
Four Pillars of Banking Sector Reforms
Quality of
Banks
Financial
StabilityFinancial
Sector
Evolution
Contribution
to Real
Economy
Post Consolidation Era
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
Strong
Corporate
Governance
& Risk Based
Supervision
Counter
-cyclical
Fiscal
policies
Phasing
out
Universal
Banking
Re-assert
use of MPR
as effect ive
interest
rate policy
tool
Page 19
Industry Total Assets, Loans and Deposits (N’Tn)
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
17.5 17.3
19.4
21.3
24.3
8.0 6.9 6.6
7.7
9.5
2.0
8.0
14.0
20.0
26.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Assets (N)
Total Loans (N)
10.6 11.3
13.4
15.9
17.2
5.0
8.0
11.0
14.0
17.0
20.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Tri
llio
ns
Industry Total Deposits (N’Tn)
Source: CBN, Afrinvest Research
Post Consolidation Era - Sanusi
Page 20
Market Impact of CBN Intervention- 2014 to Present
PROGRESSION OF REGULATORY DEVELOPM ENT
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
1-Ja
n-1
4
1-F
eb
-14
1-M
ar-1
4
1-A
pr-1
4
1-M
ay
-14
1-Ju
n-1
4
1-Ju
l-14
1-A
ug
-14
1-S
ep
-14
1-O
ct-14
1-N
ov-1
4
1-D
ec-1
4
1-Ja
n-1
5
1-F
eb
-15
1-M
ar-1
5
1-A
pr-1
5
1-M
ay
-15
1-Ju
n-1
5
1-Ju
l-15
1-A
ug
-15
1-S
ep
-15
Announcement of the sack of
Governor Sanusi Lamido as the CBN
Governor
Governor Emefiele’s nomination as
CBN Governor and official speech
announcing plans for a dovish policy
Weakening macroeconomic
fundamentals: oil price crash, MPR
hike and currency devaluation
Post-election lull: awaiting President
Buhari’s cabinet and weakened
economic fundamentals
Pre-election panic, cancellation of
RDAS
NSE Banking Index (2014 to Sept. 2015)
Page 21
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Progression of Regulatory Development
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 22
4,501.8 4,342.7
3,755.3
2,762.6
2,355.9
2,104.4 1,933.1
1,421.1
1,187.0 1,169.4 1,009.2 944.5
824.5
413.3 382.6
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
5,000.0
Total Assets of Listed Banks (2014)
Tier-1 Banks
Tier-2 Banks
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
N’bn
Page 23
Total Assets to GDP (2005 – 2014)
10-YEAR INDUSTRY OPERATING STATISTICS
GDP Rebasing Moderation
31%
39%
53%
66%
71%
32% 31%30% 30% 31%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Page 24
10-YEAR INDUSTRY OPERATING STATISTICS
Total Assets
4.5
7.2
11.0
15.9
17.5 17.3
19.4
21.3
24.3
27.5
-3.0
2.0
7.0
12.0
17.0
22.0
27.0
32.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N’tn
Page 25
10-YEAR INDUSTRY OPERATING STATISTICS
Total Loans (2005 – 2014)
2.2 2.2
4.0
6.3
8.0
6.9 6.6
7.7
9.5
12.1
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
N’b
n
Page 26
98%
62%
73%71%
76%
61%
50% 49%
55% 56%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
85.0%
95.0%
105.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10-YEAR INDUSTRY OPERATING STATISTICS
Loans to Deposits Ratio (2005 – 2014)
Average:
65.1%
Page 27
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Gross Earnings vs Gross Earnings Growth (2005 – 2014)
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.6 1.5
1.2
1.9
2.5
2.9
3.3
50%
67%
60%
-6%
-20%
58%
32%
16%
14%
6%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Earnings Growth rate
Page 28
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
PBT vs. PBT Growth (2005 – 2014)
81.3
129.0
252.6
494.0
282.5
344.8
147.4
551.1
501.3
682.3
59%
96%96%
-43%
22%
-57%
274%
-9%
36%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PBT Growth Rate
Page 29
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Cost to Income Ratio (2005 – 2014)
70.6
67.5
61.3
54.4
67.3
97.0
73.7
68.9
81.9
65.5
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cost-to-Income Rat io Average
Average:
70.0%
Page 30
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
NPLs Ratio
0.8
1.7
2.9
4.7
6.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
11%
7%
3%
10%
16%
14%
6%
5%
4%3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Loan & Advances (N'tn) NPL Rat io
Page 31
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Progression of Regulatory Development
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 32
35%
65%
N2.8tn
Industry Gross Earnings & PBT
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
66%
34%
N3.3tn
(+17.7%
Y-o-Y)
75%
25%
N696.2bn
(+31.6%
Y-o-Y)
Tier-1 Banks
Tier-2 Banks
2013 2014
13%
88%
N501.3bn
Gross
Earnings
PBT
Page 33
68%
32%
N25.4tn
(+15.5%
Y-o-Y)
70%
30%
N29.1tn
(+15.9.%
Y-o-Y)
Industry Total Assets & Liabilities
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Tier-1 Banks
Tier-2 Banks
2013 2014
68%
32%
N25.1tn
65%
35%
N22.0tn
Total
Assets
Total
Liabilities
Page 34
Industry Total Loans & Deposits
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Tier-1 Banks
Tier-2 Banks
70%
30%
N15.0tn
(+26.6%
Y-o-Y)
69%
31%
N11.8tn
70%
30%
N18.9tn
2013 2014
70%
30%
N21.1tn
(+11.6%
Y-o-Y)
Total
Loans
Total
Deposits
Page 35
Sectoral Credit Distribution in Nigeria
2014 PERFORMANCE REVIEW
Oil & Gas, N3.2tn, 26%
Agriculture, N0.5tn, 4%
Manufacturing , N1.7tn, 13%
Government , N0.7tn, 6%
Construct ion & Real Estate, N1.2tn, 9%
ICT & Transport , N1.3tn, 10%
Pow er, N0.5tn, 4%
General Commerce, N1.1tn, 8%
General: Household , N1.2tn, 10%
Others, N1.2tn, 10%
Total Credit
– N12.6tn
(excluding
NSE listed
banks loans
outside
Nigeria)
Page 36
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Progression of Regulatory Development
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 37
Banks Market CapitalizationCURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
706.3
524.3
340.4
227.6 222.6
160.0 153.3
101.6 72.7 61.3
46.5 42.9 39.5 30.8
15.9
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0(N’bn)
Page 38
16.5%
27.9%
20.8%
18.7%
16.7%
19.1%
14.7% 14.6%
7.7% 8.2%
12.7% 12.2%
3.7%
5.6%
20.5%
14.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
ROE Industry Average
Tier-1 and Tier-2 Banks’ 2014 ROE
CURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
Source: Company Financials, Afrinvest Research
Page 39
Banking Multiples across Selected African Countries
CURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
Source: Company Financials, Afrinvest Research
17.8%
19.7%
21.4%
25.0%
27.7%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
SOUTH AFRICA NIGERIA EGYPT KENYA GHANA
Average ROE of Top-Tier Banks across Africa
Page 40
2.4x
5.3x
2.6x
6.3x
2.5x
5.0x
3.2x
2.2x
3.0x2.5x
10.1x
6.1x
4.0x
0.8x
16.7x
4.0x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0xPE Tier-1, Tier 2 & Indust ry Average
Valuation by Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio
CURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
Source: Company Financials, Afrinvest Research
Page 41
0.4x
0.7x
0.4x
1.9x
0.5x
1.0x
0.3x 0.3x0.2x 0.2x
2.1x
0.7x
0.5x
0.2x
0.9x
0.7x
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
PBV Industry Average
Valuation by Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio
CURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
Source: Company Financials, Afrinvest Research
Page 42
Banking Multiples across Selected African Countries
CURRENT INDUSTRY VALUATION
Source: Bloomberg, Afrinvest Research
4.0x
7.4x8.0x
9.8x
21.4x
0.7x 1.2x0.6x
2.4x2.9x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
NIGERIA GHANA EGYPT KENYA SOUTH AFRICA
P/E P/BV
Average Trading Multiples of Top-Tier Banks across Africa
Page 43
2015 NIGERIAN BANKING SECTOR REPORT
Macroeconomic Review
Progression of Regulatory Development
10-Year Indust ry Operat ing Stat ist ics
2014 Performance Review
Current Indust ry Valuat ion
Implicat ions for the Next Decade
OUTLINE
Page 44
Regulatory Expectations
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
Ant icipated Government Reforms
Accommodat ive Monetary Policy in the
Medium Term
Tighter Prudent ial Regulatory Landscape
Regulat ions on Shadow Banking
Support ing Regulat ions for Banking
the Unbanked
Page 45
Macroeconomic Indicators
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
COUNTRYGross
Earnings/GDP
Total
Assets/GDP
Total
Loans/GDPNet Margin
BRAZIL 11% 62% 25% 13%
RUSSIA 6% 49% 35% 7%
INDIA 9% 89% 47% 25%
CHINA 9% 184% 93% 41%
SOUTH AFRICA 10% 116% 71% 26%
BRICS AVERAGE 9% 100% 54% 22%
NIGERIA 3% 23% 8% 20%
Page 46
Monetary Policy
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
COUNTRY FOREX REGIME MONETARY POLICY
BRAZIL Floating Inflation Targeting
RUSSIA Other Managed Price Stability
INDIA Floating Multiple Indicators Approach
CHINA Crawl Like Arrangement Currency Stability
SOUTH AFRICA Floating Inflation Targeting
NIGERIA Other Managed Price and Exchange Rate Stability
Page 47
Banking Industry Metrics
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
COUNTRYGross
Earnings/GDP
Total
Assets/GDP
Total
Loans/GDPNet Margin
BRAZIL 11% 62% 25% 13%
RUSSIA 6% 49% 35% 7%
INDIA 9% 89% 47% 25%
CHINA 9% 184% 93% 41%
SOUTH AFRICA 10% 116% 71% 26%
BRICS AVERAGE 9% 100% 54% 22%
NIGERIA 3% 23% 8% 20%
Page 48
Top 4 Banks Market Share - BRICS vs. Nigeria
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
94%
85%
43%
63%
98%
54%
77%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTH AFRICA NIGERIA
Page 49
Sector Credit Distribution vs Contribution to GDP
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
27.0%
4.4%
12.4%
8.6%
9.8%
4.9%
10.2%11.2%
20.2%
9.3%
12.0% 12.1%
0.6%
17.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Oil &
Gas
Ag
ricultu
re
Man
ufa
cturin
g
Co
nstru
ction
& R
ea
lEsta
te
ICT &
Tra
nsp
ort
Po
we
r Ge
ne
ral
Co
mm
erce
/Tra
de
Industry Average Sector % Contribut ion to GDP
Page 50
Sector Credit Distribution vs Contribution to GDP
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
27.0%
4.4%
12.4%
8.6%
9.8%
4.9%
10.2%11.2%
20.2%
9.3%
12.0% 12.1%
0.6%
17.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Oil &
Gas
Ag
ricultu
re
Man
ufa
cturin
g
Co
nstru
ction
& R
ea
lEsta
te
ICT &
Tra
nsp
ort
Po
we
r Ge
ne
ral
Co
mm
erce
/Tra
de
Industry Average Sector % Contribut ion to GDP
Page 51
Sector Credit Distribution Across Selected Countries
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
4.9%
16.8%
6.0%
2.2%
3.8%
17.7%
33.7%
1.7%2.9%
2.4%
16.3%
28.2%
1.5%
8.7%
2.1%
28.0%
40.8%
12.4%
10.7%
0.6%
22.9%
18.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Agriculture Ut ilit ies (Water, Gas,Elect ricity)
Mining/Natural Resources Manufacturing Services
Malaysia Indonesia Russia Brazil India
4.0%
17.7%
2.0
%
27.6
%
4.7%
Page 52
Sector Credit Distribution Across Selected Countries
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
4.9%
16.8%
6.0%
2.2%
3.8%
17.7%
33.7%
3.9%3.4%
25.0%
12.0%12.7%
1.5%
8.7%
2.1%
28.0%
40.8%
12.4%
10.7%
0.6%
22.9%
18.0%
1.7%
2.9%2.4%
16.3%
28.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Agriculture Ut ilit ies (Water, Gas,Elect ricity)
Mining/Natural Resources Manufacturing Services
Malaysia Indonesia Nigeria Brazil India Russia
Page 53
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT DECADE
Mining/ Natural
Resources Sector
Over a Quarter of
the Total Loans by
banks is
concentrated in this
sector
Manufacturing Sector
A Shif t to more complex
Manufacturing which will require
more Capital Expenditure
Utilities Sector
Increased ef forts by Government to
improve delivery in the sector opens up potent ial lending
opportunit ies
Household Sector
The Expanding income level and
middle-Class populat ion
suggests a viable market to create
f inancial products
Going Forward
Growing Non-Oil Sectors
Lending Structure – The Way forward
Page 54
Thank You