IISS Newsletter Spring 2013

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Arundel House, 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple Place, London WC2R 3DX, United Kingdom. www.iiss.org. Incorporated in England with limited liability under number 615259. UK registered charity 206504.

© The International Institute for Strategic Studies

This content may be used for research and private study purposes. All rights reserved. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.iiss.org/terms-and-conditions

SCROLL DOWN FOR DOWNLOADED CONTENT

http://www.iiss.org/terms-and-conditions

IISSnews May

Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Book Launches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Arctic Climate Change and Security . . . . . . . . . . 7

Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . . 7

Non-proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 8

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Russia and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo was among the luminaries at a thought-provoking IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Conference in Bahrain in early April focusing on new opportunities in Africa. Two of the most attention-grabbing notions put forward at the conference were that Africa’s economic hub was actually in Dubai and that the BRICS grouping might ben-efit from including Nigeria in a new ‘BRINCS’.

The need to manage the continent’s resource industries carefully was also a major theme of ‘The Geo-Economics of Resource and Conflict in Africa’ con-ference from 7–9 April in Manama, as were the risks presented by terrorism, drugs and crime, particularly in West Africa.

The conference, which assessed the balance between these business oppor-tunities and political risks, took place against a backdrop of increasing trade between Gulf and sub-Saharan countries. African experts, policy makers, investors, business leaders and researchers also attended.

Former President Obasanjo stressed the centrality of Africa’s two largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria. He suggested that the better those two countries did, the better for the continent generally.

However, in his paper, Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith highlighted some of the tensions between these two behemoths, which had been com-pounded by South Africa’s recent inclusion in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) grouping. While acknowledging many of the risks (from corruption and scams to terrorism) that businesses faced in Nigeria,

Smith claimed that ‘the absence of Nigeria, in particular, and West Africa in general from many of the continental negotiations between Africa and Asia and Latin America is undermining African efforts to better coordinate policy and continental interests’.

During the conference, a general consensus emerged that, despite the collective power of the BRICS, individual BRICS countries’ investments and trade had greater influence in Africa.

So too did the UAE, which has made huge investments in Africa over the past decade. Nowhere in Africa is more than eight hours’ flying time from Dubai, and with flights out of Africa via Dubai often cheaper than regional flights, it has become a hub like Singapore and Hong Kong. The Financial Times’ Michael Peel explored the closer economic ties between the Gulf and Africa.

In a separate session, Fred Swaniker of the African Leadership Academy provided a handy backgrounder for potential investors in Africa, describing the five fundamental forces at play in today’s Africa, the seven areas of greatest opportunity, the four major downsides and the three ways to best mitigate the risks. Michael Spicer, the CEO of Business Leadership South Africa discussed business opportunities in southern Africa; and Statoil’s Fareed Mohamedi talked about the oil and gas industries in eastern Africa. Emmanuel Aning from the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre presented the concluding session on transnational threats in West Africa.

Read papers from all six of the conference sessions at http://bit.ly/1285ubd.

New Opportunities in Africa

3

Dr John Chipman, Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr Sanjaya Baru

Dr Leonardo Simao, former Minister of Foreign A�airs of Mozambique

2 | MAY 2013 IISS NEWS

KEY ADDRESSES

Consolidating Kosovo’s Statehood

People’s lives are much better in an independent Kosovo than they have been at many points throughout history, according to Enver Hoxhaj, Kosovo’s for-eign minister.

In a key address at the IISS on 9 April, Hoxhaj described Kosovo as a ‘suc-cess story of the international community’ thanks to its own efforts and the support of many other nations.

Kosovo, made up of mainly Albanians and some Serb communities in the north, unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in February 2008. Until then, it was administered by the UN. Continued tension between the Serb and Albanian populations and the Serbian government’s crackdown on separatist pressure after the breakup of Yugoslavia led to NATO’s military interven-tion in 1999. The International Court of Justice, the United States and many European countries have recognised Kosovo’s independence, but the fledg-ling nation still faces a struggle to consolidate its statehood and gain further international recognition and membership in international organisations.

Hoxhaj asserted that the project of ‘building a new state from scratch’ had been a success, despite hurdles such as the legacy of conflict and the contin-ued international presence.

Though Belgrade has not yet officially recognised Kosovo, dialogues between Belgrade and Pristina have resulted in Serbia accepting Kosovo’s de facto independence. In April, Kosovo and Serbia reached a landmark agree-ment to normalise relations. Under the EU-brokered deal, both sides have agreed not to block each other’s efforts to seek EU membership. The agree-ment also brings the mostly Serb municipalities in the north under Kosovo law. The agreement has not yet been ratified by Pristina or Belgrade, but Hoxhaj was optimistic about Kosovo’s domestic political advances and stabil-ity.

‘We are very proud that we are a secular state,’ he said, explaining that Kosovo had been able to adopt a modern constitution based on the ‘principles of democracy, multi-ethnicity and secularism’. Through political stability and minority integration, he said, Kosovo was moving towards a multi-ethnic, inclusive, cohesive society that also enjoyed macroeconomic and fiscal stabil-ity.

In what he called a ‘global geography of recognition’, he noted that Kosovo has now been recognised by 98 countries. He particularly praised the UK’s support, ‘not just from politicians and diplomats, but also the journalists and human-rights activists that played a role in building modern Kosovo’.

In the immediate future, Kosovo would focus on key partnerships, espe-cially with the UK and EU. Above all, he said, Kosovo wanted to ‘exercise its sovereignty’ and be an active participant in regional and international issues.

Responding to an audience question on whether the eurozone crisis would affect Kosovo’s ‘strategic thinking’, he said Europe must avoid the ‘culture of fear’ caused by the debt crisis. He felt that many Asian countries were expe-riencing a wave of optimism that he did not feel in Europe. He explained how ‘even in bad times, such as during Milosevic, Kosovo had a strong hope,’ which he believed had played a big part in helping Kosovo achieve many of its goals in the last five years.

This meeting took place at Arundel House, London and was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/15dL8n3.

Enver Hoxhaj

Bernard Gray

The Way Forward in Defence AcquisitionBernard Gray, UK Chief of Defence Materiel, spoke at Arundel House on 25 February on ‘The Way Forward in Defence Acquisition: Inter-national Cooperation and Reform’. He delivered the keynote address for a two-day conference on the NATO Smart Defence initiative, part of a series of IISS events supported by the NATO Public Diplomacy department.

Gray, who is reforming UK defence procurement after writing a trenchant report for the previous government, commented that the Smart Defence prin-ciples of prioritisation, specialisation and cooperation were equally applicable to the challenges faced by the defence industry. Europe, he said, was bur-dened by overcapacity and duplication in manufacturing: ‘So within NATO we have experienced the symptoms, but we have also identified one possible treatment – Smart Defence. We now need to persuade ourselves to take the medicine.’

Speakers in the seminar included Patrick Auroy, NATO Assistant Secretary-General for Defence Investment, General Stephane Abrial, adviser at Safran and former Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, and Sir Brian Burridge, Vice President at Finmeccanica UK.

IISS NEWS MAY 2013 | 3

KEY ADDRESSES

The Foreign Policy of the New Chinese Government

The ‘predominant goal’ of China’s foreign policy is to ensure a peaceful global environment, said Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador to the UK, at the IISS on 17 April.

In March, China’s transition to a new generation of leaders was finalised but it is still unclear what this means for China’s foreign policy. In a key address, Liu discussed China’s diplomatic goals in the new era.

Liu described the kind of world China wanted to build, with a commit-ment to peace to enable global development: ‘Without peace, neither China

nor the world can achieve development.’ He said that China today was very different from that of ten or even five years ago, and that its growth was attributable not only to its own ‘opening up’ but to the era’s peace and stability.

‘China will not repeat the history of the current established powers who confronted each other and fought for ascendancy, but rather build a new type of relations, characterised by openness, inclusiveness, and mutual trust,’ he explained.

China would also collaborate with other countries outside the region, including Africa and the BRICs, not just through investment, but schol-arships and people-to-people contact. This would allow others to learn more about China’s history, culture, tradition and unique system, and would help the rest of the world see China as an ‘opportunity rather than a threat’. Liu said good news from China did not travel as far and as quickly as bad news, and that China must be more effective at telling its story.

Liu did touch upon China’s Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute with Japan. ‘There is no denying that we have territorial disputes with some neighbouring countries … and China will not compromise its legitimate rights or interests’, he said. While China was optimistic that the disputes could be resolved bilat-erally and by peaceful means, it would ‘not allow anyone to make trouble on its doorstep’.

This meeting took place at Arundel House, London and was chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch the address at http://bit.ly/10pkVtZ.

Liu Xiaoming

Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali

Somalia: Ending the Transition

Somalia has been through one of the longest ‘transitions’ on the planet, its former prime minister, Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, said when he visited the IISS on 11 March. He was referring to the 21 years of civil war since 1991, during which Somalia at best only ever had ‘transitional’ governments and the fabric of Somali society was destroyed.

Now the country had the chance of a new start, with the swearing-in of a new parliament in August 2012, the election of a new president in September and a series of military successes by government forces, African Union troops and neighbouring armies that had driven Islamist al-Shabaab fighters from

the capital, Mogadishu, and from their strongholds in central and southern Somalia.

Ali outlined a crucial roadmap adopted in September 2011. In a bid to bring the long civil war to an end, this set out a timetable for writing a new constitution, beginning a process of political reconciliation, reforming par-liament and other institutions and securing the country from the clutches of extremists. Ali, then still prime minister, inked the document with repre-sentatives of the breakaway Puntland region, the central Galmudug region, and the pro-government militia Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa. Representatives of the United Nations, African Union and other regional organisations also signed.

Despite some concerns within the international community that the plan was too ambitious, it had produced ‘unexpected and dramatic posi-tive results’. On the security front, more than 85% of central and southern Somalia had been liberated from al-Shabaab and stabilised. Steps had been taken towards establishing new state institutions. A new constitution had been approved in April 2012, and piracy off the coast of Somalia had fallen dramatically as the situation inside the country improved.

Nonetheless, Ali admitted that his country was ‘not out of the woods yet’ and that al-Shabaab remained a threat to stability. Work also remained to be done in convincing the breakaway region of Somaliland to join a unified Somalia.

Dr Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, chaired the meeting. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/14hfgcE.


BOOK LAUNCHES

Adelphi Book on Iraq’s Unhappy Anniversary

Ten years after the war in Iraq, Dr Toby Dodge’s timely new IISS Adelphi book on the country has attracted widespread press coverage.

Its central thesis – that Iraq is descending into a new period of authori-tarian rule a decade after the removal of dictator Saddam Hussein – poses fundamental questions about the US-led invasion in 2003. This caught the attention of leading journalists across the world, from Thomas Ricks in Foreign Policy to John Rentoul in the UK’s Independent and Peter Hartcher in Australia’s Sydney Morning Herald.

‘For anyone who wants to know how Iraq arrived at its current state, and wonders what might happen next, this is an excellent place to begin’, said The Economist in its review of the book, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism.

Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, says the inva-sion cost the lives of 4,500 US military personnel and more than 110,000 Iraqi civilians. Some $200 billion had been spent on reconstruction, but the lion’s share had been allocated to the army and security services, and the civilian capacity of the state remained ‘woefully adequate’.

Dodge launched Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism at the Institute’s Bloomsbury House in London on 15 January. At the launch, Dodge focused

on the rise of Nuri al-Maliki as Iraq’s autocratic new prime min-ister. Originally an unremarkable politician, Maliki gradually accrued more power while rivals were dis-tracted by infighting. He built up a small, cohesive group of function-aries, known as the ‘Malikiyoun’, placing these friends, loyalists and family members in important gov-ernment positions; and he brought key institutions under the control of his office, including 4,500 crack, US-trained Special Forces who are now nicknamed the ‘Fedayeen al-Maliki’ and treated as his personal army.

When Maliki’s State of Law coalition narrowly lost the 2010 national elec-tions to Iyad al-Allawi’s Iraqiyya Sunni coalition, by 89 to 91 seats, the prime minister had become so bold that he had refused to step aside and ordered a recount ‘to prevent a return to violence’, Dodge said.

The author was relatively downbeat about Iraq’s future, saying that the re-emergence of sectarian politics was worrying. The only positive angle was the country’s powerful security services would probably prevent it from return-ing to full-scale civil war.

The London book launch was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Editor, Adelphi books. Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/125QoD9. It was later launched at IISS–US in Washington DC. Watch the US launch at http://bit.ly/17XsJIJ. A webinar also took place on 28 February where IISS members and guests were invited to dial in to hear Toby Dodge discuss the book and to ask him ques-tions.

Dr Nicholas Redman and Dr Toby Dodge

Adam Ward and Christian Le Miêre

IISS–US Adelphi Book LaunchOn 21 March, IISS–US hosted Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security for the launch of Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes, the Adelphi book co-authored with Sarah Raine.

The South China Sea (SCS) is a critical sea line of communication; half of the world’s maritime trade passes through it and it is home to fisheries and military bases. Le Mière explained that con-flict could be avoided if the countries involved in the SCS disputes could clarify their claims, collab-orate to define the local features, contextualise the disputes away from the idea of Sino-US competi-tion, and civilianise the region.

The Adelphi examines four main territorial dis-putes: the Paracels, which are occupied by China and claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam; the Pratas, which are occupied by Taiwan and claimed by China and Taiwan; the Spratlys, which

are occupied by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, but also claimed by Brunei and Taiwan; and Macclesfield Bank/Scarborough Reef, which are claimed by China and Taiwan, with the Philippines also claiming Scarborough Reef.

Le Mière outlined four possible outcomes to the disputes: 1) the US cedes some strategic primacy and allows China to take on more of a strategic position, but this scenario is unlikely; 2) either the US or China assumes regional hegemony; 3) managed mistrust – the most likely scenario that would ensure a level of insecurity but not con-flict, where China and the US vie for influence and Southeast Asian states recognise their roles and pitch in wherever possible; and 4) regional conflict. There were however potential dispute-management tools: clarification; collaboration; and contextualisation. This meeting was moder-ated by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/19mE6sD. This Adelphi was also launched at Arundel House, London on 10 April. Watch the London launch at http://bit.ly/YGMstD.


LATIN AMERICA / DISCUSSION MEE TING

Forward? Barack Obama’s Second TermOn 31 January, the IISS held a discussion meeting with Dr Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Mark Fitzpatrick, Director, IISS Non-proliferation Programme. Fitzpatrick and Allin used their recent Survival articles – ‘Iran Will Determine Obama’s Legacy’ and ‘The Country We Carry in Our Hearts’ – as springboards to discuss the pros-pects for Obama’s second term.

Although foreign policy played only a small role in the US presidential campaign, the way Obama handled Iran before 2016 could determine how the president goes down in history, Fitzpatrick said. He described the installation of new centrifuges at Iran’s uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz as a ‘game changer’. There was the chance that some sort of military action ‘may come into play’ in the next four years to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

In general, Fitzpatrick predicted that Obama’s second-term handling of international affairs ‘will be reactive rather than proactive’. However, he welcomed a recent announcement that US Vice President Joe Biden would soon begin talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over reducing nuclear weaponry.

Both speakers agreed that climate change would advance up the presi-dent’s foreign-policy agenda in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. If the US could come close to meeting the provisions for environmental sustainability detailed in the Kyoto Protocol, Allin said, it would be well-positioned to lead the international community on energy reform.

Allin described the 2012 presidential election as putting ‘the status of American society on the ballot’ in a way that was unique in recent years. He noted that Obama’s actions in his first term suggested his image as ‘a great conciliator’ was exaggerated. His second term would likely be characterised by aggression on both sides of the aisle, with compromises being reached only when one party’s position was untenable.

This meeting was held at Bloomsbury House, London. Watch the discus-sion and download a copy of Mark Fitzpatrick’s prepared remarks at http://bit.ly/102JyeM.

(l–r): Mark Fitzpatrick, Adam Ward and Dr Dana Allin

(l–r): Miriam Gomes Saraiva, Gian Luca Gardini,

(l–r): Antônio Sampaio, Dr Nicholas Redman, Adam Ward, Nigel Inkster and Dr Sanjaya Baru

Integration in Latin AmericaOn 28 February, Antônio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, chaired the discussion panel 'Different Visions of Integration in Latin America', with Miriam Gomes Saraiva, former Rio Branco Chair in International Relations at the University of Oxford, Gian Luca Gardini, Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Latin American Politics at the University of Bath, and Eduardo Plastino, Senior International Economy Analyst at Oxford Analytica. Latin America has seen several different initiatives of regional integration in the past few years. The Pacific Alliance, formalised last year between Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico, plans to accelerate the implementation of free trade in 2013. Meanwhile, the main economies of Mercosur (Common Market of the South: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela) adopt measures to protect their industries from outside competition.

Brazil, said Saraiva, has promoted the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) as the main multilateral initiative in the region. Gardini and Plastino, on the other hand, highlighted the different policies adopted by Pacific countries such as Chile, Peru and Colombia, which maintain closer relations with the US and the Asia-Pacific.

This event took place at Bloomsbury House, London. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/19o1Cp0.

The BRICS in Global A�airsThe BRICS group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has gath-ered momentum as a counterbalance to developed Western countries within the G20. This was one of the conclusions of the panel discussion ‘The BRICS in Global Affairs’, that took place at Arundel House on 17 April with IISS experts Dr Sanjaya Baru, Nigel Inkster, Dr Nicholas Redman and Antônio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America.

The speakers highlighted the growing ability of the group to discuss secu-rity matters such as Syria, even though key differences remain on the issue of UN Security Council reform. The panel also discussed the disparities between member countries. With China outperforming the other four economies, it is

likely that India, Brazil and South Africa will reinforce the IBSA framework, which might coexist with BRICS initiatives to reform global governance insti-tutions. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/12diTAm.


DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Air Commodore Mike Wigston

Professor Lyle Goldstein

François Heisbourg and Brigadier Ben Barry

Air Operations in AfghanistanOn 15 February, RAF Air Commodore Mike Wigston delivered a presentation on air operations in Afghanistan. Wigston was, until the end of 2012, director for air operations within the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Joint Command in Kabul.

Wigston argued that air power has provided ISAF with a key asymmetric advantage in the war in Afghanistan. He also made clear just how much the air picture would change, in terms of platform numbers as well as capability, as coali-tion forces draw down and the Afghan armed forces continue to assume lead responsibility for security. Numbers give some indication: even when the Afghan armed forces and police reduce

from their peak of 350,000 to around 200,000, he pointed out that the army will remain the larg-est force. The air force, by contrast, currently has a planned maximum strength of 8,000 personnel and 145 aircraft, over half of which will be rotary-wing. Given these limitations, Wigston said there was a requirement for the Afghan forces to ‘get used to the level of capability they will have available to them from 2015’. The air force, he suggested, ‘will have to be used very carefully and selectively’.

This meeting was chaired by Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace and took place at Arundel House, London. Listen to the dis-cussion at http://bit.ly/ZmzmPb.

China’s Maritime Challenge to the USChina’s naval development and assertive policies in its near-seas are a concern for regional neighbours and increasingly, for the US. The much-vaunted US rebalance to Asia seeks to reassure its allies in the region and deter, but not provoke, China. However, there is the possibility that Washington’s treaty alliances could lead to US involvement in a damaging conflict in the region.

On 25 April, Professor Lyle Goldstein discussed his research into China’s naval rise, particularly through the use of Chinese-language sources, and future strategies for the US in East Asia. Highlighting the possibility of ‘co-operation spirals’ to induce a self-sus-taining dynamic of confidence-building, Goldstein suggested that while China’s naval development was continuing apace there was scope for greater peaceful coexistence in Asia.

Goldstein also drew heavily on the recent book by Professor Hugh White, The China Choice, who addressed the Institute on the topic in October 2012.

The meeting was chaired by Christian Le Mière, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/17Xf9oU.

Initial Lessons from Operations in MaliOn 15 February, François Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS and of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Special Advisor, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris), gave an assessment of the current French-led operation in Mali.

The operation was then in the process of moving from a French lead to Malian lead with support from France, African states and an EU training mission. Much remained to be done in securing Mali and in initiating a political process. But the conflict had already shown the value of high-readiness intervention forces including strike aircraft, spe-cial forces, attack helicopters and wheeled armour. Some of these were already based in the region, giving France a key advantage, particularly in halting the surprise jihadist advance on Bamako. The critical role of intelligence including airborne surveillance, and the importance of sup-port capabilities such as airlift and in-flight refuelling had also been demonstrated.

This meeting was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the IISS. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/169LNpK.


CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURIT Y / TRANSNATIONAL THREATS / PUBLICATIONS

Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security On 19 April, the IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security held its Capstone seminar in Stockholm, with participation from Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. They were joined by regional experts who discussed developing a regional security framework, logistical barriers to Arctic economic development and Russia’s Arctic interests.

Bildt and Tuomioja outlined key points of action for Arctic stability their countries would address. Both ministers stressed that military assets pres-ent in the Arctic did not signify competition or confrontation, and that regional cooperation on maritime security and search and rescue was strong. According to Tuomioja, the security concerns in the region related to envi-ronmental change, threats to biodiversity and the risk of environmental catastrophe ‘are not in any sense military concerns, but they are real chal-lenges and threats to human security’.

On emerging economic opportunities, Bildt said ‘opening up of [shipping] routes will happen, you can argue whether it’s going to be fast or slow but it will happen’. Hydrocarbon extraction may be slower than anticipated, but

even limited extractive activity ‘means a tremendous change for which we have to be prepared’ with stringent environmental standards, Tuomioja said, due to the sensitivity of the Arctic environment.

The ministers also highlighted the key role of the Arctic Council as the primary governance body in the region. It had negotiated a legally binding search-and-rescue agreement between the eight Arctic states, as well as an oil-spill preparedness and response plan.

The forum is set to continue with an Adelphi book co-authored by the proj-ect leads, Dr Jeffrey Mazo and Christian Le Mière, and a special session on ‘Strategic and Security Issues in the Arctic’ at the IISS Global Strategic Review conference in September 2013.

(l–r): Carl Bildt, Adam Ward and Erkki Tuomioja

Modernising Drug Law Enforcement SeminarOn 21 March, the Transnational Threats and Political Risk Programme co-hosted a day-long seminar as part of ‘Modernising Drug Law Enforcement’ (MDLE), a project by the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC), with the participation of the International Security Research Department at Chatham House and the IISS.

The project aims to examine new strategies for drug law enforcement, that focus on reducing the harmful consequences that arise from drug markets and drug use, rather than just on seizing drugs or arresting users. A series of commissioned reports, analysis, and meetings will attempt to provide useful guidance to law-enforcement managers on how to develop strategies and tac-tics that are relevant to the challenges posed by 21st century drug markets.

During the March event, aimed primarily at law-enforce-ment practitioners, participants debated the merits of targeted deterrence vs. zero-tolerance approaches; discussed how, in practice, the principles of harm reduction could be applied to drug markets; and how police forces could support harm reduction strategies. The overall goal of the MDLE project is to produce actionable practical recommenda-tions hence law-enforcement practitioners were encouraged to share best practice and truly discuss the feasibility of all proposals based on policing experience.

All project papers and a full seminar report can be viewed at http://bit.ly/YZjUqE.

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyLatest issueIn the June–July 2013 issue of Survival, Mark Fitzpatrick and David C. Gompert discuss regime change in North Korea; Massimo Franco explores how Francis I’s appointment will affect the Catholic Church; and Vanda Felbab-Brown examines the influence of crime on military conflicts. Also in the issue: David Fisher on morality in security policy, Erik Jones on preserving the euro and Antônio Sampaio on South America after the death of Hugo Chávez.

Survival issues are also available for purchase as e-books or through the Survival for iPad app. See http://www.iiss.org/publications/survival/ for details.

New AdelphiAdelphi 436-437: Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes by Sarah Raine and Christian Le Mière China’s rise casts a vast and uncertain shadow over the regional balance of power in the Asia-Pacific, and nowhere is this clearer than in the South China Sea (SCS). The significance of the fraught territorial disputes in this potentially resource-rich sea extends far beyond the small groupings of islands that are at their heart, and into the world of great-power politics. As the struggle for hegemony between the US and China intersects with the overlapping aspirations of emerging, smaller nations, the risk of escalation to regional conflict is real.

Sarah Raine and Christian Le Mière cut through the complexities of these disputes with a clear-sighted, and much-needed, analysis of the assorted strat-egies deployed in support of the multiple and competing claims in the SCS. They make a compelling case that the course of these disputes will determine whether the regional order in Southeast Asia is one of cooperation, or one of competition and even conflict.


NONPROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

(l–r): Mark Fitzpatrick, Dr Ibrahim Al-Marashi and Julien Barnes-Dacey

Exploring Regime Resilience in DamascusOn 18 April, the IISS hosted a discussion meeting exploring why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime had survived throughout the now two-year long uprising despite initial predictions of his impending fall. Dr Ibrahim Al-Marashi, Assistant Professor of Middle East history at California State University, San Marcos, and Adjunct Scholar at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, drew comparisons with his study of the coercive structures of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to assess the similar roles that armed forces, intelligence agencies, and weapons of mass destruction have played in buttressing the Syrian state. He highlighted that the fall of the regime was not inevitable and that the Assad family had carefully built a system of multiple security agencies that monitor society and each other making them ‘coup proof’. According to Marashi, the Syrian government calculates that chemical weapons are primarily for deterrence and strategic stability with others states in the region, so it is unlikely they would use them for internal repression in the manner of Saddam Hussein. Julien Barnes-Dacey, a Senior Policy Fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, asked why the regime would not be resilient. He explained

that it still has broad support and a strong security apparatus. In addition, the crisis is unfolding in a climate of non-interference in the West, while Iran has invested all its credibility in defending the Assad regime. This meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/18FodzR.

Mohammad Ali Shabani, Dina Esfandiary and Dr Rouzbeh Parsi

Joel Wit

Iran Beyond the Nuclear QuestionJust as another round of negotiations was about to take place between the P5+1 and Iran on its nuclear programme, on 4 March the IISS hosted a discus-sion on the dynamics of domestic politics in Iran. Internal developments will determine the policies and direction that this key nation – the largest in the Middle East – will take in the coming years.

Dr Rouzbeh Parsi, Research Fellow at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and Mohammad Ali Shabani, doctoral researcher at SOAS, examined the country’s internal political structure and decision-making mechanism, agreeing that politics in Iran was not monolithic. The speakers also examined the hot topics and likely candidates of the upcoming presidential elections in Iran.

This meeting was chaired by Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate in the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/16ubp02.

Watching and Worrying about North KoreaOn 6 February, Joel Wit, Visiting Scholar at the US–Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, led a discussion about North Korea’s latest provoca-tions and growing nuclear and missile capabilities. Arguing that the Obama administration policy of ‘strategic patience’ had failed, he advocated a more proactive approach to change the dynamic on the Korean Peninsula. Otherwise, he said, Pyongyang might soon acquire up to 50 nuclear weapons. During the spirited discussion that followed his remarks, Wit said North Korea would not stop proliferating until forced, so the US could either ‘stand back or dive in and stop development of the nuclear programme’.

This meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/14haV9u.

UN Sanctions on Iran On 16 January, the IISS convened a workshop on ‘Implementing Sanctions on Iran: Prospects and Problems’ in Auckland, New Zealand. This workshop, the 6th in a series covering sanctions on Iran in differ-ent regions, was in support of the UN Panel of Experts on Iran sanctions. The event assembled practitioners from Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands to discuss their experiences in sanctions implementation and to share best practices, particularly in the fields of transportation and finance. Other topics included export controls and customs-related measures. A final session covered autonomous sanctions by Australia, the EU, and the US. A report of the workshop is availa-ble to download in PDF format at http://bit.ly/13sK6jK.


NONPROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

Pakistan’s Nuclear History and FuturePakistan’s recent expansion of its nuclear capabilities – more plutonium production capacity and introduc-tion of battlefield-use nuclear-armed missiles – set the backdrop for a dis-cussion on 12 December of how and why Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme has reached this stage. The discussion was led by an expert with first-hand experience, Feroz Khan, who formerly headed the arms control and disarmament direc-torate of the Strategic Plans Division of the Pakistan military. Now a lecturer at the US Naval Postgraduate School at Monterey, California, Khan also discussed the future directions the programme may take, and the surrounding policy implications. This meet-ing was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/YQBKmn.

Foreign-policy Implications of the Trident Replacement DecisionOn 13 March, four eminent former UK statesmen – Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Lord David Hannay, Sir Richard Mottram and Lord Gus O’Donnell – assessed the foreign-policy implications of the Trident replacement decision, particu-larly in terms of the UK’s international status and global influence. Although it was argued that Britain’s nuclear weapons do ‘buy’ the UK a certain amount of influence with key NATO Allies, it was ultimately the UK’s eco-nomic weight and conventional power – not its nuclear weapons capabilities – that contributed most to British global leadership and influence. The crux of the 2016 decision facing the next government on the future of Trident is whether to move away from continuous-at-sea-deterrence (CASD). With the forthcoming Trident Alternatives Review, the panellists recommended that the government seriously address the CASD concept and policy – devised

during the Cold War – and that it should not be assumed that Britain will need CASD in perpetuity. Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, chaired the panel discussion. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/YQzYSi.

Examining the North Korean Paradox On 25 March, Ambassador Chun Yungwoo, who retired as National Security Advisor of the Republic of Korea a month earlier, gave an off-the-record presentation at Arundel House on North Korea’s worsening existential crisis and the policy options for concerned nations. Reflecting on the accomplishments of the policies he crafted as part of President Lee Myung-bak’s administration, Ambassador Chun asserted that by seeking a sustain-able peace, not peace at any cost, President Lee had restructured inter-Korea policy for the long-term benefit of the Korean Peninsula and wider region. The goal of denuclearising North Korea has become more problematic, but it is not impossible, given Pyongyang’s increas-ing vulnerabilities. Other states should sharpen a binary choice for the North to denuclearise or collapse. This meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme.

North Korean UN Sanctions Workshop in Johannesburg On 19 March, in support of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea sanc-tions, the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme organised a workshop in Johannesburg to discuss the regional challenges of imple-menting UN sanctions vis-à-vis the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and to share best practices for compliance. Co-sponsored by the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies, the workshop convened more than 40 government officials, banking representatives and non-gov-ernmental specialists from Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,

Ghana, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and the United States. Taking place less than two weeks after the adoption of the latest UN Security Council Resolution on North Korea, the work-shop addressed the implementation of sanctions in the transportation and financial sectors, export-control and customs-related measures, and regional approaches to the enforcement of UN sanctions on the DPRK. A report of the workshop is available to download in PDF format at http://bit.ly/13sHvWX.

Feroz Khan

(l–r): Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Lord David Hannay, Mark Fitzpatrick, Lord Gus O’Donnell and Sir Richard Mottram

Chun Yungwoo


SOUTH ASIA

The IISS organised two workshops on defence and nuclear doctrines in New Delhi (5 March) and Islamabad (7 March). An eight-member IISS team from London travelled to both countries. These workshops took place with the participation of senior military officers and government officials in the respective countries. The New Delhi workshop was held in cooperation with the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA) and the Islamabad workshop with the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS).

In India, Naresh Chandra, former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board and former chairman of the government’s high-level task force on defence, delivered the keynote address. With respect to a future India–Pakistan crisis, Chandra questioned what could happen if terrorists struck India from Pakistan. India could ensure it made the cost of this too high for Pakistan, but there were a number of challenges. These included whom to target and with what measures, as well as the fact that aggres-sive use of military force could scuttle ‘escalation control’. Such challenges had to be well-thought out, he added. India was also concerned over China–Pakistan nuclear and missile cooperation. Other workshop sessions included ‘Conflicts & Crises with Pakistan: Lessons Learnt’ with Lt.-Gen. Prakash Menon (retd.), Military Advisor, National Security Council Secretariat.

In New Delhi, the IISS also had discussions with the Deputy NSA, Latha Reddy and the R&AW Chief Alok Joshi. The External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid and the Minister for Information & Broadcasting Manish Tewari attended an informal reception hosted by the IISS.

In Pakistan, Lt.-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retd.), Director General, Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command Authority (NCA), deliv-ered the keynote address. Kidwai discussed the rationale of Pakistan’s nuclear programme and challenges to the deterrence regime in South Asia, and addressed perceptions of Pakistan’s nuclear capability.

He also explained the key elements of Pakistan’s nuclear policy and the management of its nuclear capability. These include deterring all forms of aggression and defending sovereignty, maintaining credible minimum deterrence, developing a modest nuclear triad, no use or threat to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapons state – unless that state joins a hostile military coalition and nuclear-armed state(s), no prolifera-tion to any entity or state, fool-proof safety and security, pursuing strategic restraint regime and other risk-reduction measures, and supporting uni-versal and non-discriminatory arms control and disarmament initiatives. Pakistan has a regularly augmented comprehensive four-tier nuclear

security mechanism including tiered physical protection system, human reliability programmes, complete emergency management system and comprehensive training. Pakistan has a strong export-control mechanism and is fully committed to the objectives of non-proliferation as a partner in global efforts.

Kidwai said that while Pakistan is not in an arms race with India, its development of short-range nuclear weapons is intended to restore the disturbed strategic balance in South Asia and ensuring that deterrence does not breakdown. Indian effort to wage a short, swift and intense con-ventional conflict without invoking Pakistan’s nuclear threshold was the primary cause of the strategic imbalance. Pakistan is an energy-deficient country and needs access to civil nuclear technology on a criteria-based approach and rejects country-specific approach to civil nuclear com-merce.

In Islamabad, the IISS also held meetings with Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani, ISI Director General (Analysis) Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi, and the Additional Director General of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), Khalid Qureshi. The IISS will continue to build on these workshops and discussions on defence and nuclear doctrines in India and Pakistan. The two workshops were coordinated by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Antoine Levesques.

IISS Nuclear Doctrines Workshops in India and Pakistan

Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies; Naresh Chandra, former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board and former chairman of the government’s high-level task force on defence, India; Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA

Lt.-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retd.), Director General, Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command Authority (NCA), Pakistan

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk; John H. Gill, Professor, NESA, National Defence University, Washington DC; Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia; Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme; Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare; Antoine Levesques, Research Analyst, South Asia Programme; Desmond Bowen, Member, UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters.


SOUTH ASIA

Visit by the National Defence University, PakistanAs part of the IISS programme of engaging key security actors in South Asia a delegation from Pakistan’s National Defence University visited IISS London on 15 April. Headed by Brigadier Syed Haider Ali Naqvi and Commodore Baber Bilal Haider, the delegation of 15 officers from all three Pakistani armed forces ranged in rank from Lieutenant-Colonel to Major-General and Rear-Admiral.

IISS experts briefed on the war in Afghanistan, including India’s strategic approach to the country. There was also a discussion of Iran’s nuclear pro-gramme and its prospective implications for regional security. Both IISS and the visitors found the exchange of views frank and stimulating, particularly as Pakistan is a neighbour to both countries.

Discussion with Pakistan’s Director General (Analysis), ISI Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi, Director General (Analysis), Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate, Pakistan, visited the IISS on 24 April for a pri-vate and informal discussion. Pataudi’s introductory remarks focused on Pakistan’s relations with the UK, US, Afghanistan, India and on issues of counter-terrorism. This was followed by a Q&A session.

Indian MPs Visit the IISSThe IISS briefed a multi-party group of Indian Members of Parliament on 18 April 2013. These included Ijyaraj Singh and Hamdullah Sayeed

from the Indian National Congress and Yashodhara Raje Scindia and Prakash Javadekar (National Spokesman) from the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Discussions focused on Iran and nuclear capability, Afghanistan towards 2015 and beyond, and cyber governance and security.

Iran Workshop in IndiaOn 4 March, the IISS organised a half-day workshop on ‘Perspectives on Iran & Regional Stability’ in cooperation with the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). The keynote address was delivered by Ambassador Latha Reddy, Deputy National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister and Secretary, National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS).

India and Iran have long-standing ties, and share the same neighbourhood. This workshop took place at a time when their bilateral rela-tions are being increasingly shaped by the Iranian nuclear crisis. To meet its growing energy needs, India has traditionally depended on Iran as a major source of energy. But, in view of US and EU sanctions on Iran, it has begun to decrease this energy dependence. India has also walked a diplomatic and political tightrope with Iran. On

one hand, India has the second-largest Shia com-munity after Iran and Iran’s ports provide critical access for Indian goods and trade to Afghanistan, in addition to energy-security issues. On the other hand, India has voted several times against Iran on

nuclear issues in the IAEA. At the same time, India and Iran continue to maintain high-level political links. The workshop sessions focused on ‘Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Challenge’ and ‘Impact of Nuclear-Armed Iran on India and the West’.

Adam Ward, Latha Reddy and ORF Director Sunjoy Joshi

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi

Delegates at the meeting


APPOINTMENTS / PALLISER ESSAY PRIZE

Palliser Essay Prize 2013An annual prize in honour of Sir Michael Palliser (1922–2012)Former Chairman of the Council and Vice-President of the IISS

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has established the Palliser Essay Prize for the best essay submitted for publication in Survival on an aspect of European international relations, politics, geo-economics or strategy by an author of any nationality under the age of 40 at the time of submission.

The 2013 prize will consist of £2,500 and publication of the winning essay in Survival during summer 2013, with a special mention of the award. Submissions will be reviewed by the Survival editorial team and a shortlist will be sent to a jury chosen by the Chairman of the Trustees, Chairman of the Council and Director-General of the Institute.

Deadline for submission: 30 August 2013E-mail for submission or queries: [email protected]

Essays of 6,000–8,000 words in length should be prepared in accordance with the Survival submissions guidelines, available at http://www.iiss.org/publications/survival/information-for-authors/ or in any issue of the journal. Submissions must not have been previously published, or be under consideration

by another publication. The winning essay will be edited to conform to IISS house style and Survival’s standards and requirements. The author will be asked to assign copyright to the IISS.

The winner will be notified by letter no later than 22 November 2013. Other submissions may be considered for publication through the normal editorial review process.

AppointmentsSteven SimonSteven Simon was appointed as Executive Director IISS–US and Corresponding Director IISS–Middle East in January 2013. Steve completed at the end of December his posting as Senior Director, Middle East and North Africa at the US National Security Council in the White House where he was a close adviser to President Obama on many issues concerning the region, including Egypt and Syria. Steve has worked at RAND and the Council on Foreign Relations as well as at the US State Department for many years. He was previously an Assistant Director and Carol Deane Senior Fellow at the IISS. Steven has co-authored a number of important books including The Age of Sacred Terror: Radical Islam’s War Against America, The Next Attack: The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting it Right and The Sixth Crisis: Iran, Israel, America and the Rumors of War.

He brings (back) to the IISS policy experience at the highest level and on the most sensitive Middle Eastern issues of the day coupled with a brilliant scholarly pedigree.

He will regularly travel to the IISS–Middle East office in Bahrain and has based himself there from mid-February onwards. He will run the IISS–US office, fundraise, guide the Middle Eastern programme and take full part in all of the Institute’s global activities.

Dr Jenny NielsenDr Jenny Nielsen joined the IISS Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (NPD) Programme in February. She previously worked at Wilton Park, most recently, as a programme manager for the Defence and Security Programme, after earning her PhD from the University of Southampton (thesis title: ‘US Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy and Iran (1969–1981)’). Among other duties, she is responsible for managing the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference on 30 September to 1 October, for organising NPD programme

events concerning East Asia, and for conducting research on matters involv-ing disarmament and the NPT.

Nicholas PayneNicholas Payne takes on the new position of Assistant Editor, The Military Balance as of 7 January. He was previously Assistant Editor at BBC Books, part of the Random House group.

Christopher RaggettChristopher Raggett joined the IISS on 7 January as Assistant Editor and will work on Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. He was Editorial Officer at the British Society for Rheumatology, where in addition to editing he was respon-sible for maintaining the Rheumatology online database.

Antônio SampaioThe IISS has increased its work on Latin America with a new staff member, events and meetings. Antônio Sampaio was recently appointed Research Analyst for Latin America, and is now the main point of contact for Latin American issues at the Institute. Antônio has organised the first events of the Latin American programme and written pieces for Survival and the Voices blog. He has also commented on regional developments for media outlets in Brazil, China and the UK.

Steven Simon Dr Jenny Nielsen Antônio Sampaio


RUSSIA AND EURASIA

A Russian Perspective on the Syria Crisis

On 14 January, the IISS Russia and Eurasia programme hosted Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP) and Editor-in-Chief of the Council’s jour-nal, Russia in Global Affairs, at IISS–US for an off-the-record roundtable dis-cussion titled ‘A Russian Perspective on the Syria Crisis’. Lukyanov pre-sented his analysis of current Russian policy and prospects for US–Russia

cooperation on this issue to a high-level audience. Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired the meeting.

US–Russia RelationsOn 17 January, Dr Samuel Charap gave his inaugural lecture titled ‘US–Russia Relations in Obama’s Second Term: Reflections on the ‘Reset’ and Prospects for the Future’ at IISS–US. Charap offered four observations on this key bilat-eral relationship based on experience working in the US State Department.

Firstly, he noted that both sides tend to assess the relationship through the ‘deliverables’ it produces. The use of deliverables as a gauge of bilateral ties reveals something about the relationship itself, he argued. When the sides are not working on or talking about deliverables, they have to grapple with the relation-ship itself, and neither side (for different reasons) is satisfied with it. Secondly, the 2009–2011 time frame (the ‘reset’ period) was perhaps the most productive period of cooperation between the two countries since the Soviet Union’s col-lapse, and that this was the result of the change of administrations in Washington.

Thirdly, the relationship had by any measure deteriorated significantly over the past year and could well get worse. Although the reset undeniably produced important results, it did not alter the fundamental problems of the relationship, Charap explained. His final observation related to one of the hypotheses that guided the Obama administration’s policy shift on Russia: that increasing the number of deliverables and broadening the relationship would allow the two countries to at least make progress if not reach resolu-tion on their long-standing disagreements. This hypothesis has been falsified by recent events. Charap ended his discussion on a cautiously positive note, saying relations were unlikely to return to the lows of the Bush era. The US and Russia had strong incentives to cooperate on the issue of Afghanistan, investment and trade, and non-proliferation. This meeting was chaired by Steven Simon, Executive Director of IISS–US and Corresponding Director IISS–ME. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/1000kzU.

Russian EconomyOn 26 March, the IISS Russia and Eurasia programme hosted Martin Gilman, Director of the Centre for Advanced Studies of the Higher School of Economics (Moscow), for a discussion meeting at IISS–US. He gave a macroeconomist’s take on some of the myths about the Russian economy that seemed to have taken on a life of their own and become the conventional wisdom. Russia, probably more than any other emerging market, seems to elicit analysis that is not fully, and sometimes not even partially, borne out by the facts. Gilman presented Russian economic trends in a comparative framework that challenged a few of the most pervasive myths, including the notions that Russia doesn’t belong in the BRICS grouping and that all Russia’s economic success is due to oil. He noted that ‘underlying macro balances in Russia are clearly among the healthiest on the planet. Even after the global financial crisis, foreign exchange reserves are still the 3rd largest in the world; the balance of payments is in surplus; the budget is balanced; growth is slowing, but would still be the envy of many of its neighbours; and the government doesn’t have any debt, house-holds have little debt, and enterprises have deleveraged.’ Gilman concluded that Russia does face significant economic risks, but that these are ‘generally more related to politics than to economics’. Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired this meeting. Watch the discussion and download a PDF of Gilman’s presentation at http://bit.ly/18FmWZH.

The Reset for EuropeOn 6 February, Dr Samuel Charap gave his first talk as IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at Arundel House, London on the implications of the reset for Europe.

The US ‘reset’ towards Russia during the first Obama adminis-tration had created ‘dividends for European security’, even if this posi-tive effect was underappreciated. Charap believed it was underappreci-ated in large part because US officials did not make a compelling argument for it. In describing the reset in their public remarks on European security, administration officials often preemp-tively apologised for it.

Charap said that increased cooperation between Moscow and Washington after President Obama announced his intention to improve ties in 2009 had significantly reduced tensions between Russia and the West. This alleviated perhaps the gravest threat to European security: namely, out-right confrontation with Russia. Russian behaviour toward Europe during the 2009–2011 period, though far from uniform across issues and among different countries, was significantly more conciliatory than previous years. The rapprochement between Russia and Poland was one example, along with the delineation of the maritime border between Russia and Norway, a negotiation that had gone nowhere for 30 years until 2010. This gave Europe a ‘net security gain’, Charap argued.

This was in addition to the global security gains that resulted from joint efforts on Iran, Afghanistan and in reducing nuclear weapons, after periods of neglect and unsuccessful attempts to cooperate with Russia under President George W. Bush.

Charap noted that the reset also had a significant positive impact on intra-NATO cohesion on Russia-related issues.

This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/12oKbUh.

Martin Gilman

Dr Samuel Charap

Fyodor Lukyanov

I ISSUS


The French Intervention in Mali

On 14 February, François Delattre, Ambassador of the French Republic to the United States, spoke on the French intervention in Mali at an IISS–US Ambassadors’ Forum discus-sion meeting. Ambassador Delattre discussed the French rationale for intervention, their successes and areas for improvement, and the pros-pects for the future of Mali. He also touched on the importance of the US–France relationship for encourag-ing stability in the Sahel. Randy Bell,

Managing Director, IISS–US, moderated the discussion.

Israel’s Periphery Doctrine On 2 May, Yossi Alpher, co-editor of The Bitterlemons Guide to the Arab Peace Initiative, spoke at IISS–US about the evolution of Israel’s ‘periphery doctrine’, its strategy of counterbalancing hostility from Arab states by forging part-nerships with non-Arab countries and minorities in the region. The strategic importance of the periphery doctrine began to wane in the late 1970s, Alpher noted, with the fall of the Shah of Iran and Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt, but has recently resurfaced as part of Israel’s grand strategy in response to the Arab revolutions and rising Islamism in the region. In Israel’s second imple-mentation of this strategy, Alpher emphasised the need to improve upon past precedent by not only strengthening ties with periphery countries such as Azerbaijan, Greece, Bulgaria and Ethiopia, but also simultaneously engaging with its Arab neighbours. Alpher argued that these periphery partnerships should be leveraged to improve relations with Arab states and not become an impediment to Israel making a serious effort at negotiating a two-state solu-tion. Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East moderated the discussion.

East Asia’s Maritime Disputes and the US Rebalance On 13 December, IISS–US hosted Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Maritime Security and Naval Forces; Admiral Michael McDevitt, Senior Fellow at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Dr Ely Ratner, Fellow and Deputy Director of the Asia-Pacific Program at the Center for New American Security; for a discussion of East Asia’s maritime disputes and the US rebalance.

Le Mière said that China’s assertiveness was an important factor in the intensifying disputes. A number of Asian states have ‘returned to the sea’ and are using military and paramilitary forces to enforce sovereignty claims. When coupled with growing nationalism, maritime disputes were framed in both a strategic and an emotional context that has led to increased competi-tion.

Ratner outlined five features of the US rebalance linked to maritime disputes: 1) a message of continuity; 2) greater engagement with allies; 3) emphasis on non-security tools; 4) insulation from budgetary constraints; and 5) a focus on the question ‘how can the US effectively reconcile [these factors] while maintaining stable relations with China?’

McDevitt said that China was creating a strategy of ‘anti-access/area denial’ (A2AD) to keep US forces far from Chinese interests. In response, the US was developing the ‘AirSea Battle’ concept. In the meantime, the US has focused on amphibious warfare capabilities, increasing its foot-print in Southeast Asia, and developing inter-operation capabilities with allies.

Iran’s Domestic Politics

On 5 April, IISS–US held a panel discussion on how Iran’s domestic poli-tics and the upcoming elections would influence future negotiations on its nuclear programme. Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate in the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme; Yasmin Alem, author of Duality by Design: The Iranian Electoral System; and Afshon Ostovar, Middle East and Iran Analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, spoke on the panel. Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, moderated the discussion.

The panel discussed the state of Iran’s domestic politics, the likely out-comes of the upcoming elections and the opportunities presented by Iran’s changing political landscape for nuclear negotiations.

Dina Esfandiary discussed the link between Iran’s domestic politics and the nuclear negotiations. She noted that because the nuclear issue was an extension of domestic politicking in Iran and the Supreme Leader did not want current President Ahmadinejad to receive credit for this development, a deal was unlikely to happen before the elections. However, after the elections, a new president would allow the Supreme Leader to channel new initiatives, such as increased negotiations on the nuclear issue.

Yasmin Alem said that internal divisions among the Iranian political elite and polarisation in the Iranian political system were growing more intense in the run-up to the elections. Differing from her fellow panellists, Alem stated that she believed progress in nuclear negotiations was possible during the elections because economic assurances were very valuable to the regime.

Afshon Ostovar discussed the role of the security forces in Iran’s domes-tic politics. The Iranian security services would be influential before, during and after elections because of their propaganda against certain candidates, security enforcement, and their role behind the scenes as a pillar of the Iranian regime. Ostovar noted that the nuclear issue fell under the domain of the Supreme Leader and the security forces, rather than the president. Given this, he did not expect the elections to change the Iranian negotiating stance.

Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/10nfSxh.

François Delattre

(l–r): Samuel Charap, Dina Esfandiary, Yasmin Alem and Afshon Ostovar

I ISSUS


US Outer Space Diplomacy On 29 March, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Space and Defense Policy Frank Rose delivered an address in the IISS–US Policy Makers Series about US priorities for international space diplo-macy during President Obama’s second term in office.

Rose cautioned that as the number of states and private firms operating in outer space has increased, so have hazards, including the growing quantity of space debris or ‘junk’. Every spacefar-ing nation had an interest in mitigating the risk from space debris, Rose asserted, and the United States was working both bilaterally and in multi-lateral forums to engage other states in advancing space sustainability and security as well as trans-parency in space operations.

As a key example of the Obama administra-tion’s emphasis on international engagement on these critical issues, Rose highlighted US work with the European Union and other states in developing the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. Rose also noted that the US government in the last six months had seen a greater willingness from China to engage on space-security issues. Both countries had a ‘long-term interest in maintaining the stability of the space environment, especially limiting the cre-ation of long-lived space debris,’ Rose said. ‘It is important that we discuss these issues bilaterally in order to prevent misperceptions and miscalcu-lations … I think China is coming to the view as well that it’s important to engage on these issues

... the United States believes it is very vital that we have this dialogue.’

Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired this meeting. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/YGvzPB.

North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?

Regime change in North Korea is the only viable option to eliminate the North Korean nuclear threat, Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, said at a roundtable discussion held at IISS–US on 11

April. Yet, according to Fitzpatrick, changing the current batch of leadership in North Korea was insufficient. A true solution to the North Korean problem would be the unification of North and South Korea as a democratic republic that embraced free enterprise.

According to Fitzpatrick, diplomatic engage-ment with North Korea was futile. Firstly, North Korea would not exchange its nuclear programme for economic and political gains. The North Korean regime sees its nuclear weapons programme as essential to its self-preservation and is the only significant achievement about which it can boast. Secondly, negotiations with North Korea were hollow, Fitzpatrick said. North Korea’s original intent for its nuclear programme was always to obtain nuclear weapons. Furthermore, diplomatic breakthroughs and agreements have been consis-

tently breached. The United States could not offer an adequate substitute for what North Korea per-ceives as the benefits of nuclear weapons: survival and a way to achieve regional dominance.

Fitzpatrick acknowledged that the US must remember lessons of recent regime-change failures: although regime change must come from within, external pressure and activity may help trigger internal unrest. The flow of information into North Korea from the outside should be increased. North Korea’s human-rights record should no longer be swept under the rug. Economic sanctions should also be applied, including a mandate to check all North Korean shipments for contraband.This meeting was chaired by Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/17Z41YG.

IISS–US Members ReceptionOn 20 March, IISS–US hosted a members reception with General H R McMaster, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow and Chief of Concept Development and Experimentation at the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, and staff from the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme. McMaster spoke to IISS members about the future of the US Army under budget-ary limitations.

The US and the Middle East in an Era of Uncertainty On 27 February, Steven Simon, Executive Director of IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, spoke on the US role in the Middle East in an era of budgetary uncertainty. Simon drew on his recent experience as Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa on President Obama’s National Security Staff in discussing changing regional dynamics. The event was moderated by Bart Friedman, Board Member, US Friends of The IISS. Steven Simon also discussed this topic at Arundel House, London on 22 February.

Samuel Charap and Frank Rose

Mark Fitzpatrick

H R McMaster


I ISS FULLER TON FORUM

The inaugural IISS Fullerton Forum took place in Singapore from 17–19 February. Intended as an inter-sessional meeting forming an integral part of the expanded IISS Shangri-La Dialogue process, the 58 delegates to the Fullerton Forum included governmental representatives (both civilian and military) from Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam. China, Japan and the United States were all well-represented. Approximately one-third of the delegates were from research institutes and universities in key participant countries.

Singapore’s Minister for Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, delivered the key-note address on ‘Potential Threats to Regional Stability in Asia’. In his prefatory remarks, Ng noted that the Shangri-La Dialogue had ‘estab-lished itself as the foremost defence and security conference in the Asia-Pacific’, and that the Dialogue had delivered ‘important outcomes’. The minister highlighted what he considered the main reasons for Asia’s economic success over the last two decades but acknowledged that there were potential threats to regional stability and growth that the Fullerton Forum delegates could ‘think about and help solve’. As well as the ten-sions in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and on the Korean peninsula, Ng discussed the challenges ‘arising from fundamental shifts in the geopolitical landscape’, notably in terms of evolving US–China relations. According to the defence minister ‘the … bilateral relationship must widen its areas of mutual interest to achieve better cooperation and accommodation’.

Ng examined a second source of potential instability: ‘the impact and stress due to deeper socio-demographic trends’ including ‘greater polari-sation within and across countries’ as a result of economic inequality, communalism, religious extremism and nationalism. The region also had to address transnational and non-traditional challenges, such as climate change and natural disasters, that would be ‘too big’ for countries to solve individu-ally. In conclusion, he proposed that ‘regional and global frameworks for governance’ be refreshed or renewed in order to ‘optimise collaboration and decision-making between countries’. Such frameworks had to be open and inclusive, based on the rule of law, and must deliver real results. The ADMM-Plus with its Expert Working groups, together with platforms such as the Fullerton Forum and Shangri-La Dialogue, have all played significant and complementary roles in strengthening the regional security architecture, he said.

Debate in the Forum’s main sessions focused on inter-state security prob-lems, and national delegations conducted numerous bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Forum. The IISS will organise a second event in the series in early 2014.

A full transcript and video of Ng Eng Hen’s keynote address are available at http://bit.ly/16mczKX.

Inaugural IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting

Dr Ng Eng Hen

Delegates at the second session

Dr John Chipman

Delegates at the �rst session


I ISSFULLER TON LEC TURE / I ISSASIA

Dr Guido Westerwelle

Dr Ben Schreer

Fullerton Lecture – Europe at a Crossroads: The Path Towards Fresh GrowthOn 8 February, Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr Guido Westerwelle, spoke on the future of the EU and Europe’s relations with Asia in the 8th Fullerton Lecture. According to Westerwelle, ‘the doomsayers’ who pre-dicted the collapse of the euro and the European Union were wrong at both the economic and political levels: troubled eurozone countries had embarked on ‘a remarkable path of reform’, while European partners had created the ‘space and time for reform’. More broadly, European leaders believed in their ability to learn from setbacks as well as successes. The minister said that ‘at its heart, the EU is the guarantor of peace on the European continent.’ The EU also assured ‘a strong European voice in a world where the centre of gravity is moving East’. European integration, Westerwelle explained, was ‘our answer to the globalisation of our world’. Europe’s global contribution goes beyond trade, technology and finance to advocacy for a rules-based international order in the security sphere, including non-proliferation and disarmament.

Moving to a regional focus, Westerwelle pointed out that Europe ‘remains a key partner for Asia’. Europe is the biggest investor in Asia, and vice versa; the EU is also Asia’s largest trading partner. Germany plays a key role in economic relations between Europe and Asia. Germany is push-ing for deeper and more comprehensive European political engagement with Asia, including ASEAN. The minister highlighted the need to ‘map out the path towards the EU’s active participation in the East Asia Summit’.

There was a need for Europe and Asia jointly to address common challenges including climate change, financial market stability, and maritime security. The minister outlined the EU’s progress towards free trade agreements in Southeast Asia, and elsewhere in Asia, but also emphasised the importance of a comprehensive agreement with the United States on a transatlantic single market. In conclusion, the minister said Germany and the EU hoped Asia as a future partner would be ‘a region characterised by close political cooperation’ and ‘not held back in its enormous potential by nationalist sen-timent and confrontation’.

This lecture took place at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore and is available to watch at http://bit.ly/ZTLQS4.

Next Steps in Australia–Indonesia Defence Relations On 5 April, Dr Ben Schreer from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute spoke at a IISS–Asia seminar on Australia–Indonesia defence relations. Dr Schreer emphasised that Australia has long had an ambivalent defence rela-tionship with its Indonesian neighbour, almost including a military conflict over East Timor in 1999. However, Indonesia’s current strategic trajectory and the changing balance of power in Southeast Asia require Australia to re-evaluate its defence policy towards its far larger neighbour. Australian policymakers recognise that it is now in Canberra’s strategic interest actively to support Indonesia’s force modernisation process. Dr Schreer dis-cussed the opportunities for, and obstacles to, a true Australian–Indonesian ‘strategic partnership’ and what such a partnership might mean for Southeast Asia.

IISS–Asia Roundtable Meeting: Malcolm CookOn 14 March, Professor Malcolm Cook of Flinders University addressed a roundtable gathering at IISS–Asia on the theme of Chinese policy in relation to the East China Sea and South China Sea disputes.

The Shangri-La DialogueThe 12th IISS Asia Security Summit will take place from Friday 31 May–Sunday 02 June 2013 in Singapore. Nguyen Tan Dzung, Prime Minister of Vietnam, will deliver the keynote address.


I ISSOBEROI LEC TURE / I ISSMIDDLE EAST

Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in Danger?On 6 March, Hans Blix visited IISS–Middle East to discuss his decades of experience navigating the tempestuous waters of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Blix warned of the risk of a potential domino effect emulating from the nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea, pushing other states to pursue nuclear capabilities. However, he made it clear that going to war with Iran could have disastrous consequences and an attack could create sympathy and rally public support for the current regime. Blix explained that the world often underestimated Iran’s national pride and desire for self-respect in the international community. Ultimately, it was the region’s responsibility to create a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, even though past attempts to bring relevant regional actors together had not been successful due to regional mistrust and dissatisfac-tion with the NPT. Despite these challenges, Blix declared that ‘diplomacy is not yet dead’. In the short term he encouraged an interim agreement with Iran, such as ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, while in the long term actors would need to become much more imaginative to ease regional tension.

Hans Blix, Director-General Emeritus of the IAEA and the Executive Chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) for Iraq between 2000 and 2003, has chaired the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission since it was established in 2004, and is also Head of the Advisory Board for the United Arab Emirates Nuclear Pro-gramme in 2010.

The IISS Global Perspectives Series is a regular forum at IISS–Middle East drawing on the full authority and reach of IISS expertise to deliver facts and analysis on important strategic issues. This meeting was moderated by Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Regional Security Cooperation, IISS–Middle East. It is available to watch at http://bit.ly/ZNulPT.

Hans Blix and Michael Elleman

Dr Heizo Takenaka

IISS–Oberoi Lecture – Dr Heizo Takenaka on ‘Abenomics’

Since he took office at the end of 2012, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has launched an aggressive monetary, fiscal and growth policy, in an all-out attempt to revive his country’s moribund economy. After more than 20 years of deflation in Japan, the bold ‘Abenomics’ package is being keenly watched around the world, to see what effect it will have on the Asian and global economies. On 25 March, at the third IISS–Oberoi Lecture, one of Abe’s leading economic advisers, Dr Heizo Takenaka, discussed the policy details.

Speaking in Mumbai, Takenaka outlined three elements or ‘arrows’ of ‘Abenomics’. The first is a monetary expansion policy designed to conquer deflation. As part of this, the Bank of Japan has announced a doubling of its inflation target to 2%. The second plank of ‘Abenomics’ is a flexible fiscal policy, involving an already announced fiscal stimulus in the short term,

followed by a fiscal consolidation in the mid-term. The third element of the policy package is an ambitious growth strategy.

But Takenaka admitted there were two different schools of thought on what Japan’s growth strategy should be. One suggested promoting small government and deregulation so that the private sector had a free hand. The other recommended adopting a state-led industrial strategy. Which path the Abe administration will take was as yet unclear.

So far, the markets had loved the idea of this new three-pronged policy, Takenaka said. The Tokyo stock market had leapt 30% in the past three months, and Abe’s government had a 70% public-approval rating (compared to its predecessor’s 20%).

However, Abe had come in for some criticism from abroad for allowing the yen to depreciate by about 15% against the US dollar since January. While this depreciation benefitted Japanese exporters, its impact on foreign competi-tors was negative.

Takenaka also highlighted the political uncertainty in Japan that might derail the success of ‘Abenomics’. He pointed to the forthcoming election in the upper house of parliament this July. Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) lacked a majority in the upper house to match its lead in the lower, Takenaka said. However, it was vital for him to win the July elec-tion if he were to establish a lasting cabinet.

This meeting was chaired by Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Director for Geo-economics and Strategy. Watch the lecture at http://bit.ly/13dxCJe.


I ISSMIDDLE EAST / CYBER SECURIT Y

Cyber Security ProgrammeThe IISS–Middle East office has initiated several events addressing global cyber security. The research and lectures on cyber security emanating from the Institute could not be more imperative as US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel deemed cyber attacks ‘the great threat to our security – economic secu-rity, political security, diplomatic security, military security – that confronts us’.

On 27 February 2013, IISS–Middle East held a discussion meeting with Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, on the attacks on the computer network of Saudi Aramco in August 2012, infecting up to 30,000 of its Windows-based machines.

Despite its resources as Saudi Arabia’s national oil and gas firm, Aramco

took almost two weeks to recover from the damage. Then US Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, described the incident as creating ‘tremendous concern.’ Although the attack did not result in an oil spill or explosion, the virus, dubbed Shamoon, severely affected the operations of the company. Protecting petroleum operations in Saudi Arabia from physical attacks has been a decades-long priority for Riyadh and Washington. Even a partial disruption of production facilities in the country would have an immediate influence on oil supplies and prices, impacting the global economy.

Tikk-Ringas presented on legal aspects of international cyber security at Georgetown University’s ‘International Engagement on Cyber’ conference on 10 April and moderated a session on regulatory challenges to international information security at 7th International Forum on Information Security in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

Geopolitics Key to Converging Trade InterestsPascal Lamy, the Director General of the World Trade Organisation addressed an audience of Indian businessmen and policymakers on ‘Putting Geopolitics Back at the Trade table’ on 29 January 2013. Lamy reflected on the importance of economic growth as a tool for managing geopolitical tension, and appealed for a return to geostrategic thinking about an interna-tional policy environment that supports growth. He said the deadlock in the WTO Doha Round was not due to the large membership, as it was widely believed, but due to disagreement among a small handful of advanced and emerging economies and was geopolitical in nature. He outlined three geopolitical principles which could counter the stalemate in negotiations: an acceptance by emerging countries to ‘align their level of international commitments to those of advanced economies’; recognition by advanced economies that ‘emerging countries deserve long transition periods to con-verge towards common commitments’; and finally for the poorest countries, less concern about their level of commitments and more about ‘how to help them build the capacity to be active members of the international family’.

He also acknowledged the need to promote growth, increase productive capacity, and trade as key aspects of the United Nations’ post-2015 develop-ment agenda.

This meeting took place at the Oberoi Hotel, New Delhi. More informa-tion on the forum and a full transcript of Pascal Lamy’s speech is available at http://bit.ly/18X1igM.

(l–r): Kapil Chopra, President, The Oberoi Group; Pascal Lamy and Dr Sanjaya Baru

(l–r): Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Dr James Lewis, Christopher Spirito and Rafal Rohozinski

Cyber Security

On 12 April, IISS–US hosted a panel discussion on ‘How to be Strategic About Cyber Security’ with Dr James Lewis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and Public Policy Program at CSIS; Rafal Rohozinski, CEO of The SecDev Group; and Christopher Spirito, International Cyber Lead at the MITRE Corporation. Cyber security has evolved into a highly complex com-petition between states, involving both their national security prerogatives

and sovereign interests. Given the global design of information infrastructure and diverging national capabilities in developing and using ICTs, however, governments are struggling to formulate a grand strategy for mitigating cyber threats. The panellists offered suggestions for how governments might better manage this growing problem.

James Lewis observed that regional and global negotiations to manage cyberspace stability, cyber conflict, and cyber-related trade issues are ongo-ing but under-publicised and often irrelevant. He called for sharpening research to help policymakers and the public better think through the truly difficult problems of insecurity in cyberspace. Christopher Spirito followed up on Lewis’s remarks by noting that we need more information-sharing about attacks and vulnerabilities in order to develop a common language of cyber security, a set of best practices to reduce vulnerabilities, and a better understanding of the tools used by attackers. Rafal Rohozinski added that Internet norms of openness and multi-stakeholder governance that the West is promoting are often at odds with cyber-security goals of stability and trade security.

This discussion was moderated by Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/ZU4WHK.


PUBLICATIONS

Press Launch – The Military Balance 2013

Western nations struggle with shrinking defence budgets, military spending in Asia continues to grow, and the ramifications of the Arab Spring continue to be felt from Syria to Mali – all of these subjects featured in the press launch of The Military Balance 2013, the annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics from the IISS.

On 14 March, Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, introduced the book and James Hackett, Editor, The Military Balance, and a panel of IISS experts answered questions.

The Military Balance 2013 includes analyti-cal essays on global trends in defence economics, Europe’s defence industries, conflict in Afghanistan and Syria, and anti-access/area denial. The ‘trends in defence capability’ section consists of segments on ISR, counter-IED, submarine capabilities and, for the air domain, hypersonic technology. The book contains more written analysis of national defence policies and defence economics, more graphics, maps and tables and now complements

its renowned military data sets with a full range of country capability summaries.

At the press launch, Dr John Chipman discussed the strategic consequences of the Arab Spring and in particular the civil war in Syria. He assessed the Syrian army’s strength alongside growing support for the rebels. The sheer number of rebel groups, their aims, and the presence of jihadists were key concerns. He noted that there was a considerable risk that a rapid end to the conflict would likely be ‘as destabilising as its prolongation’.

Reflecting the subdued global economic cli-mate, Chipman explained how total global defence spending actually fell in real terms in 2012 for a second year running. However, real increases were seen in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia and Eurasia, Latin America and in Asia, while real declines were seen in North America and Europe. It had to be remembered, however, that the defence budget of the United States equals that of the next 14 nations combined and the United States still intends to remain engaged globally, Chipman said.

In the Asia-Pacific, ‘potential flashpoints and smouldering conflicts continued to threaten peace and stability’. Chipman discussed how continuing tensions in the South China Sea have unnerved several Southeast Asian governments, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, further motivating attempts to improve their military capabilities. The recent Adelphi book Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes analyses these issues.

Chipman assessed China’s emergence as a regional competitor in both economic and military terms. China now spends more on defence than neighbouring Japan, South Korea and Taiwan combined. If the 15% average annual increases in China’s official defence spending seen over the past decade continued into the medium term, Chinese defence outlays could rival US base defence-budget spending by 2025. If additional elements of military spending widely believed to be excluded from the official PLA budget are included, convergence could occur in 2023, just a decade away.

In concluding remarks, Chipman described The Military Balance 2013 as ‘rich in detail and broad in its analytical reach’. Over the next decade, under-standing how the newly rich acquire genuinely important military capacities, and how long it takes for some established powers to lose certain key, especially expeditionary, abilities, would be an important task for all defence and strategic ana-lysts, he said.

The full press statement is available to read at http://bit.ly/17vtMzw. Watch the press launch at http://bit.ly/1012B9r. The Military Balance 2013 was also launched at the National Press Club in Washington DC on 20 March.

IISS experts prepare to answer questions from the media

IISS WebsiteThe IISS has launched a new website as the first stage of a project to give members and users much-improved access to digitised content. The rede-signed home page features a rotating ‘carousel’ highlighting IISS events and publications, and will also include more blog posts. The new site, which has a much-improved search facility, is the result of months of work by an IISS team working with Pentia, the Danish contractor.

IISS members have been issued with new passwords. Usernames remain the same as for the old site. We apologise for any confusion that the change-over may have caused. We have made changes to the site to make the login process clearer. There is no need for members to update their membership details, unless they wish to do so.

If members or users experience any problems or would like to provide feedback on the site, please email [email protected] or telephone +44 20 7379 7676.

IISS Newsletter Spring 2013

Documents

Transcript of IISS Newsletter Spring 2013