IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

An

Integrated Assessment Model

for Fine Particulate Matter

in Europe

Markus Amann, M. Johannson, A. Lükewille, W. Schöpp (IIASA) H. ApSimon, T. Gonzales (Imperial College, London, UK

L. Tarrason, S. Tsyro (Norweg. Met. Institute, Oslo, Norway)

IIASA

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PrimaryPM

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ground-levelozone

Health impactsfrom fineparticles

(via secondary aerosols)

IIASA

The new RAINS structureto model particles

Economicactivities

Emission controlpolicies

Agriculture

NOx emissions

SO2 emissions

Solvents, fuels,industry

Energy use

NH3 dispersion

S dispersion

VOC emissions

NH3 emissions

Transport

Critical loadsf. acidification

Critical loads f. eutrophication

NOx dispersion

O3 formation

NH3 control& costs

NOx/VOC control&costs

VOC control& costs

Emission control costs

Critical levelsfor ozone

Environmentaltargets

Primary PM dispersionOther activities PM control

& costs

Primary PM emissions

Secondary aerosols

PM Population exposure

SO2 control& costs

NOx control& costs

O3 Populationexposure

IIASA

Approach to PM Assessment

Health impact theories still controversial (PM mass, size, number, carbonaceous, etc.)

Integrated assessment for all impact theories (as far as possible) to determine set of robust measures

• First step: PM mass, distinguish PM size classes

• Future work: other PM properties (carbonaceous, metals, alkaline, etc.)

IIASA

PM10 or coarse/fine particles?

Coarse particlesPM10-2.5

Fine particlesPM2.5

Dominantemissionsources

Mechanical +combustion

Combustion

Conventionalcontroltechnologies

Highly efficient Less efficient

Atmosphericdispersion

Shorter scale Long-range

Health impacts Questionable Hypothesized

IIASA

Initial Projections of Primary PM

EU-15 Non-EU

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1990 2010 CLE 1990 2010 CLE

kiloto

ns

Fine fraction (PM2.5) Coarse fraction (PM10-2.5)

IIASA

PM fine 1990

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IIASA

PM coarse 1990

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IIASA

PM control optionsconsidered in RAINS

Stationary Sources:

• Cyclones

• Fabric filters

• Electrostatic precipitators (ESP)– 1 field – 2/3 fields – 3+ fields

• Improved combustion

techniques

for small sources

Mobile Sources:

• EURO-II

• EURO-III

• EURO-IV

• EURO-V

IIASA

Primary and secondary aerosol precursor emissions in Europe

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 1990 2010

Primary sources Secondary sources

Mill

ion

tons

Fine Coarse SO2 NOx VOC NH3

IIASA

Estimated contributions to PM concentrationsEMEP cell 20/16 (Dutch/German border)

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2010

mic

rogr

am/m

3

Primary coarse Primary fine S NOx NH4 SOA

IIASA

Conclusions

If PM mass is health-relevant ...• Rural background PM concentrations

– dominated by long-range transport

– primary PM emissions only minor share • In urban areas coarse fraction more important

– more local sources– combustion and ‘mechanical’ origin are important

If other PM properties are relevant ...– more analysis needed

IIASA

Conclusions

• Health impacts of fine particulate matter are strongly linked with emissions of ‘traditional’ pollutants

• Cost-effective strategies need to balance controls for primary PM emissions and secondary aerosols

• PM2.5 transported over large distances, coarse particles more local

• Uncertainties will prevail, RAINS can offer tool for systematic search for robust strategies