Ignacio Rodríguez Añino, Country Head Spain · Mar-13 6.5% 4.9% Dec-12 5.5% Table shows...
Transcript of Ignacio Rodríguez Añino, Country Head Spain · Mar-13 6.5% 4.9% Dec-12 5.5% Table shows...
Ignacio Rodríguez Añino, Country Head Spain
June 2017
2
Fund facts
Source: M&G, 31 May 2017
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund and M&G Prudent Allocation Fund
M&G DYNAMIC ALLOCATION FUND
Launch December 2009
Co-fund
managers Juan Nevado, Tony Finding
Tenure January 2011
Fund size €4,815 million
Sector Morningstar EUR Flexible Allocation
Currency Euro denominated fund
Best Flexible Allocation fund*
M&G PRUDENT ALLOCATION FUND
Launch April 2015
Co-fund
managers Juan Nevado, Craig Moran
Tenure April 2015
Fund size €1,124 million
Sector Morningstar EUR Cautious Allocation
Currency Euro denominated fund
Juan Nevado Tony Finding Juan Nevado Craig Moran
*Morningstar Awards 2015. Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Awarded to M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund, euro A class shares f or Best Flexible Allocation
Fund, Italy
Ratings as at 31.05.17. The Morningstar Overall Rating based on the fund’s Euro Class A shares. Copyright © 2017. Morningstar UK Limited. All Rights
Reserved. Ratings should not be taken as recommendation.
3
• Joined Prudential Portfolio Managers in 1988 and is
a member of the M&G Multi Asset team, with over
20 years of investment experience
• In January 2011, Juan was appointed co-manager of
the M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund and the M&G
Episode Allocation Fund. In April 2015, he was
appointed co-manager of the M&G Prudent
Allocation Fund upon its launch
• He has a BSc in economics from the LSE and an
MA in economics from Warwick University
Juan Nevado Biography
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund & M&G Prudent Allocation Fund
Juan Nevado, Fund Manager
June 2017
5
Proposition M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund and M&G Prudent Allocation Fund
Source: Morningstar Inc., Pan European database, euro class A shares, net income reinvested, price-to-price, 31 May 2017
7.9%*
Positive
returns 5% - 12% 5% - 10%
Worst: 6%
Best: 40%
Potential to deliver
6.5%
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund
M&G Prudent Allocation Fund
Positive returns 3% - 7% 3% - 6% Potential to deliver
The fund allows for the extensive use of
derivatives.
The potential return is quoted net of
charges on a total return basis (combination
of income and capital growth) and
calculated over a three- to five-year period. The potential volatility figures are calculated
on a monthly basis over the medium term.
Please note, these figures are not
guaranteed and may be revised in the future.
The fund allows for the extensive use of
derivatives.
There is no guarantee that the fund will achieve a positive return over this or any
other period and investors may not recoup the original amount they invested
*3-year volatility calculated monthly, as at
31 May 2017. **Cumulative 3-year rolling
returns since launch (3 December 2009)
The potential return is quoted net of
charges on a total return basis (combination
of income and capital growth) and
calculated over a three- to five-year period. The potential volatility figures are calculated
on a monthly basis over the medium term.
Please note, these figures are not
guaranteed and may be revised in the future.
6
Agenda
Performance
Investment philosophy
Views and positions
7
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund
Source: M&G Statistics, Morningstar Inc., Pan European database, euro class A shares, net income reinvested, price -to-price, 31 December 2016.
Aims to deliver positive total returns in any three-year period
There is no guarantee that the fund will achieve a positive return over this or any other period and investors may not recoup the original amount they invested
Date of investment Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
Da
te o
f w
ith
dra
wal
Dec-16 6.2% 5.5% 5.9% 6.3% 5.9% 6.5% 6.8% 8.4% 7.3% 6.4% 7.3% 6.7% 6.7% 5.9% 7.1% 6.5% 6.8%
Sep-16 5.4% 4.6% 5.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 6.1% 5.4% 5.3% 4.4% 5.5% 4.8%
Jun-16 5.1% 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 4.7% 5.2% 5.5% 7.1% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 4.9% 4.8% 3.8% 4.9%
Mar-16 5.3% 4.5% 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 5.5% 5.8% 7.5% 6.2% 5.2% 6.1% 5.3% 5.2% 4.1%
Dec-15 5.7% 4.9% 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.4% 8.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%
Sep-15 5.6% 4.8% 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 8.3% 6.8% 5.6% 6.7% 5.9%
Jun-15 7.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 7.2% 8.0% 8.5% 10.9% 9.5% 8.4% 9.8%
Mar-15 7.9% 7.0% 7.6% 8.3% 7.9% 8.8% 9.5% 12.1% 10.6% 9.6%
Dec-14 6.5% 5.5% 6.2% 6.7% 6.2% 7.1% 7.7% 10.3% 8.6%
Sep-14 6.3% 5.3% 5.9% 6.5% 5.9% 6.8% 7.4% 10.3%
Jun-14 6.2% 5.1% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8% 6.7% 7.3%
Mar-14 5.8% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 5.2% 6.1%
Dec-13 5.7% 4.5% 5.1% 5.8% 5.1%
Sep-13 5.9% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0%
Jun-13 5.3% 3.8% 4.5%
Mar-13 6.5% 4.9%
Dec-12 5.5%
Table shows annualised product returns over a holding period of at least three years
Track record: 3 December 2009 (inception) to December 2016
8
Performance since launch
Source: Morningstar, Inc., Pan European database, 31 May 2017, euro A class shares, net income reinvested, price to price.
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund
Performance vs Pan European sector
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Rebased t
o 1
00 a
s a
t 4 D
ecem
ber
2009
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund Morningstar EUR Flexible Allocation sector EURIBOR 3 months
9
Drivers of performance: YTD 2017 Dynamic asset class allocation and selection are the main drivers of performance
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund*
Source: M&G, Xamin, 31 May 2017. Investment returns (gross of fees) absolute terms, calculated in euros end of day pricing. *Fund launched on 3 December 2009.
**Mainly real estate-related securities and convertibles. ***Fund launched on 23 April 2015.
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
YTD 2017
Equity Government bonds Corporate bonds
Other** Cash and currencies
M&G Prudent Allocation Fund***
0.0%
0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
1.6%
2.0%
YTD 2017
Equity Government bonds Corporate bonds
Other** Cash and currencies
Strong contribution from our
equity exposure, particularly from
Asia and Europe
Benefited from good performance
in EM bonds
Credit spread compression in
investment grade space
High carry EM currencies
contributed positively
Convertibles and Infrastructure
funds offered diversification and
positive performance
Short duration in UK gilts was
a detractor to the funds’
performance
10
Agenda
Performance
Investment philosophy
Views and positions
11
Building blocks of our investment strategy
Source: M&G
M&G Multi Asset team
A robust, repeatable approach
3
2
1
Strategic assessment
Tactical assessment
Portfolio construction
12
Strategic assessment Valuation framework: the starting point
Source: M&G, Datastream, 1 June 2017. *Real yield for equity is defined as an inflation-adjusted inverted p/e ratio, using forward consensus data
Driver of long-term asset allocation decisions
Sample of assets, showing real yield against an assessment of neutrality
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
Real yi
eld
*
Neutrality Above
neutrality –
Cheap?
Below
neutrality –
Expensive?
13
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
The environment has been forgiving of ‘set and forget’
asset allocation…
Source: Datastream, 28 April 2017. *Rebased as at 31 December 2006
Tota
l re
turn
, re
based (
US
D)*
50/50
(5.6% pa)
70% equity/ 30% bond
(5.6% pa)
70% bond/ 30% equity
(5.5% pa)
MSCI AC World and Citigroup World Government Bond Index (10Y+), US dollar terms
… but the environment might have changed
14
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16
US equity and bond returns over the last 5 years
Source: M&G, DataStream, 31 May 2017. *Rebased as at 30 May 2017
Real returns on S&P 500 and US 10-year Treasuries, rebased* To
tal
Retu
rns,
rebased*
S&P 500
US 10 Year
Treasury
15
Why do we like volatility? Equities generally rally in the year after volatility peaks
Source: Bloomberg, 9 June 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Index
Volatility Index (VIX) X% Performance of the S&P 500 one year forward
28.4%
34.5%
15.1%
23.1%
37.1% -15.3%
23.1%
33.6%
33.2%
25.3%
-37.8%
47.0%
24.4% 25.3%
11.7%
28.6% 9.2%
14.9%
24.9%
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Volatility is not risk The volatility phase at the beginning of 2016 was partly behavioural
Source: M&G, Datastream, 30 August 2016. *Bloomberg, February 2016. **As at 30 March 2016. ***Rebased to 100 as at 28 April 2007
Justified market reaction or overreaction?
Focus on a single event* Rapid price movement** Inconsistent responses
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Tota
l re
turn
s,
rebased t
o 1
00 a
s a
t 31 D
ecem
ber
2015
S&P 500
DAX
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
12
-mo
nth
fo
rwa
rd e
arn
ings p
er
sh
are
*** MSCI Germany
S&P 500
Topix
Topix
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil
Oil Oil
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Tactical Assessment
Source: M&G, Datastream, Bloomberg, 7 June 2017. *As at 30 April 2017
Dynamic asset allocation in practice
Equity allocation Fixed income allocation*
Total net equity allocation in
M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
Fund d
ura
tion (ye
ars
)
Yie
ld t
o m
atu
rity
Duration of M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund (RHS)
BofA ML All Maturity G7 Govt Index (LHS)
Average duration
Active asset allocation to take advantage of market opportunities
55%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
World e
arn
ings y
ield
46.5%
45%
40%
50%
40% 40%
47%
40% 35%
40%
18
Agenda
Performance
Investment philosophy
Views and positions
19
4. What is the biggest risk
for markets in 2017?
3. EM- what are the
opportunities ?
1. Fixed income: a turning
point?
2. Is there still value in
equities?
Four burning questions for investors
Source: M&G
What is the market worrying about?
20
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
Real G
DP
exp
ecta
tions
World 2011 World 2012 World 2013 World 2014
World 2015 World 2016 World 2017 World 2018
Global: Real GDP expectations
Source: Consensus Economics, June 2017
Real GDP expectations
21
Current market context
Unemployment rates
Corporate earnings trends* Inflation – Consumer Price Index
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, Datastream, 31 May 2017. *As at 4 April 2017
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16
Japan Eurozone USA
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Eurozone USA Japan
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17
USA Japan Eurozone
Purchasing Managers’ Indices
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17
Index
Japan Eurozone USA
22
Opportunities in fixed income Selectivity, flexibility and dynamic asset allocation is key
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Yie
ld
US UK Japan Germany
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, 9 June 2017
On the short side: 10-year real bond yields On the long side: spreads vs US Treasuries
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Sp
rea
d
Mexico Brazil Colombia US BBB
Importance of flexibility to implement negative view on bonds
23
Current fixed interest exposures: targets
Source: M&G, 26 June 2017. *Fund duration as at 23 June 2017. **Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. †These positions are a combination of outright
short positions and hedging duration strategies.
Deriving value from relative value positions
M&G DYNAMIC ALLOCATION FUND Net fixed income exposure, excluding hedging instruments: 15.5% Fund duration, -1.77 years*
Periphery:
9.5% Emerging markets: 10.3% Credit: 8.5% Mainstream govt bonds: -40.5%
M&G PRUDENT ALLOCATION FUND Net fixed income exposure, excluding hedging instruments: 21.5% Fund duration, -1.51 years*
4.0%
-2.0% -5.0%
-7.5% -7.5%
-22.5%
7.5% 2.0%
6.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%
5.0% 2.5% 1.0%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
% o
f fu
nd
exp
osu
re
4.0%
-2.0% -3.0% -5.5% -7.0%
-26.0%
8.0% 2.0%
6.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
7.0% 2.0% 1.0%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% o
f fu
nd
exp
osu
re
Mainstream govt bonds: -39.5% Periphery:
10.0% Emerging markets: 12.5% Credit: 10.0%
24
4. What is the biggest risk
for markets in 2017?
3. EM- what are the
opportunities ?
1. Fixed income: a turning
point?
2. Is there still value in
equities?
Four burning questions for investors
Source: M&G
What is the market worrying about?
25
Valuation signals are clear
Source: Datastream, 31 May 2017. Equity proxy is MSCI Germany; cash proxy is EURIBOR 3 months. All data is inflation-adjusted.
Equities offer compelling earnings yield relatively to fixed income
Safer assets have yield well below normal
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Real yi
eld
s
German real yields
Cash
Equity
10-year German
govt bond
Equity risk premium
26
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Why is valuation our starting point?
Source: Datastream, 31 December 2016
Valuation is a good indicator of future returns
Forward PE
5Y
annualis
ed r
etu
rn
Forward PE
5Y
annualis
ed r
etu
rn
27
Current equity exposures: targets Deriving value from relative value positions
Source: M&G, 26 June 2017
M&G DYNAMIC ALLOCATION FUND Equity exposure, 40.0% versus 40% neutrality
M&G PRUDENT ALLOCATION FUND Equity exposure, 23.0% versus 20% neutrality
EM: 3.5% Global equities: 34.5% Relative value trade: 2%
EM: 3.3% Global equities: 18.8% Relative value trade: 1%
14.5%
8.5% 7.5% 4.0%
7.3%
2.8% 2.0% 1.0%
-11.0%
2.0% 1.5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
% of t
ota
l fund e
xposure
7.3% 5.0% 4.5%
2.0%
6.5%
2.0% 1.5% 1.0%
-10.0%
2.0% 1.3%
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
% of t
ota
l fund e
xposure
28
1. Fixed income: a turning
point?
4. What is the biggest risk
for markets in 2017?
Four burning questions for investors
Source: M&G
What is the market worrying about?
2. Is there still value in
equities?
3. EM- what are the
opportunities?
29
Opportunities in EM – equities and bonds
Source: M&G, 25 April 2017
Russia – Equities • Attractive valuation
• Improving fundamentals, oil play • Basket of companies that focus
on shareholder value
Mexico, Brazil, Colombia,
Argentina – Bonds • Attractive yield
• Positive trend
Korea, Taiwan – Equities • Attractive valuation
• Improvement in earnings growth not priced in
• Improvement in corporate governance
Turkey – Equities • Attractive valuations
• Strong earnings growth
30
Opportunities in currencies Some EM currencies now look attractive
Source: Bloomberg, 9 June 2017
Exchange rates versus the USD 3-month implied carry versus the USD
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Rebased t
o 1
00 a
s a
t 31 D
ecem
ber
2012
Russian ruble Mexican peso
Turkish lira Brazilian real
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
Russianruble
Turkish lira Brazilianreal
Mexicanpeso
31 Source: Bloomberg, 31 May 2017
Valuation is one metric that drives FX positioning…
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
Real E
ffectiv
e E
xchange R
ate
rebased t
o
100 a
t 31 J
anuary
2012
… but carry and ‘episodic’ behaviour also play key roles
US dollar
Chinese
renminbi
Euro
Mexican
peso
Japanese
yen
British
pound
32
5.0%
-1.5%
3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
2.0%
-2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%
-6.0% -7%
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
Currency exposure: targets Additional source of performance
M&G DYNAMIC ALLOCATION FUND Currency exposure targets
M&G PRUDENT ALLOCATION FUND Currency exposure targets
99.5%
70%
100%
≈
% o
f fu
nd e
xposure
99.0%
70%
100%
≈
% o
f fu
nd e
xposure
3.3%
-1.0%
2.5% 2.0% 2.0%
1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0%
-1.0% -2.0%
-3.0% -3.0%
-6.0% -7%
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
Long high-carry currencies: 12.5%
Short low-yielding Asian currencies: -17.0%
Long high carry currencies: 11.3%
Short low-yielding Asian currencies: -15.0%
Source: M&G, 26 June 2017
33
4. What is the biggest risk
for markets in 2017?
3. EM- what are the
opportunities?
1. Fixed income: a turning
point?
2. Is there still value in
equities?
Four burning questions for investors
Source: M&G
What is the market worrying about?
34
What is the biggest risk for markets in 2017?
Mario Draghi World Economic Forum 2013 crop" by World Economic Forum - Cropped from File:Mario Draghi World Economic Forum 2013.jpg, original source Flickr: Special Address: Mario Draghi. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mario_Draghi_World_Economic_Forum_2013_crop.jpg#/media/File:Mario_Draghi_World_Economic_Forum_2013_crop.jpg – Bank of England via commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ALondon.bankofengland.arp.jpg
Mario Draghi continuing QE?
China: hard or soft landing? Is global growth going to
pick up?
What’s next in commodities?
Will Fed continue to raise
rates?
Volatility is not risk – being flexible and dynamic is key
What does Brexit really mean?
Will populism continue to rise?
35
Summary
Source: M&G, April 2017
2016 has shown the folly of forecasting; what matters are valuations and the
economic environment
Equity risk premium is still the biggest valuation anomaly
Importance of being dynamic, selective and flexible in today’s markets
36
Appendix
37
Episode blog
Our bloggers
Information
www.allocationblog.com
@allocation_en
Allocation blog
“We think being aware of market inefficiencies and behavioural
biases is an essential element to being a good investor”
Bringing you Multi Asset views, straight from the fund management floor
Source: M&G, October 2015
The Multi-Asset “Allocation” blog is
available in 5 languages
38
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investment risks relating to these funds. The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent advice. In Switzerland, this financial promotion is
issued by M&G International Investments Switzerland AG, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Federal Financial Market Supervisory Authority. Elsewhere, it
is issued by M&G International Investments Ltd. Registered Office: Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England No. 4134655 and has a branch located in France, 6 rue Lamennais 34, Paris 75008, registered on the
Trade Register of Paris, No. 499 832 400 and a branch in Spain, with corporate domicile at Plaza de Colón 2, Torre II, Planta 14, 28046, Madrid, registered
with the Commercial Registry of Madrid under Volume 32.573, sheet 30, page M-586297, inscription 1, CIF W8264591B and registered with the CNMV under
the number 79. The Portuguese Securities Market Commission (Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários, the “CMVM”) has received a passporting
notification under Directive 2009/65/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and the Commission Regulation (EU) 584/2010 enabling the fund to be
distributed to the public in Portugal. M&G International Limited is duly passported into Portugal to provide certain investment services in such jurisdiction on a
cross-border basis and is registered for such purposes with the CMVM and is therefore authorised to conduct the marketing (comercialização) of funds in
Portugal.