Global Food Security Index Project overview

for the

IFAMA workshop

18 June 2014

Sponsored by

Overview

The Global Food Security Index:

ranks and scores 109 countries

according to their relative levels of food security

using 28 indicators from three categories: Affordability; Availability; Quality and Safety.

The index examines the effectiveness of food systems across the internationally established dimensions of food security

The index looks beyond hunger to the underlying factors that influence the ability of consumers to access sufficient amounts of safe, high-quality and affordable food.

Project goal: To establish an evaluative framework for national food systems to understand the drivers of food security

Based on a central definition: Food security exists when people at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for a healthy and active life.

Why an index?

The definition of a benchmarking index:

A benchmarking index is formed when individual indicators and composite indicators are compiled into a single index on the basis of an underlying model. This index reduces complex theory into a single score and measures multi-dimensional concepts that cannot be captured by a single indicator.

A benchmarking index offer a number of benefits:

Summarises complex, multidimensional realities with a view to supporting decision makers

Is easier to interpret than a combination of indicators

Can assess progress over time

Facilitates the task of ranking countries on a complex topic

Is an effective tool to communicate with policymakers and the general public

An index and food security:

Food security is a highly complex concept, encompassing multiple dimensions

An index can provide a framework to prioritise areas for intervention, monitor performance, and make the associated problems more accessible to the general public

Geographic coverage: 109 countries in 2014

Canada, Mexico, United States of America

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela

Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia

Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, UK

Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam

Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Yemen

Index

Availability

Quality & Safety

Affordability

Index framework

External Adjustment

Diet diversification

Nutritional standards

Micronutrient availability

Protein quality

Food safety

Food consumption as a share of household expenditure

Proportion of population under global poverty line

GDP per capita, $US, PPP

Agricultural import tariffs

Presence of food safety nets

Access to finance for farmers

Sufficiency of supply

Public expenditure on agricultural R&D Agricultural infrastructure

Volatility of agricultural production

Political stability risk

Corruption

Urban absorption capacity

Food loss

Food Price Adjustment Factor

FAO global food price index

adjusted for income growth,

exchange rates and a pass-

through coefficient of global to

national food prices on a

quarterly basis

Applied to Affordability score

Latest release: 22 April 2014

* Composite indicators are bolded.

Index framework: Affordability

Indicator Source Year

Food consumption as a proportion of total household expenditure

FAO; UN; EIU Latest available year in 1990-2014

Proportion of population living under or close to the global poverty line

World Bank, World Development Indicators; UN Development Programme (UNDP)

Latest available year in 2001-11

GDP per capita (at PPP, exchange rates) EIU 2013

Agricultural import tariffs WTO Latest available year in 2009-12

Presence of food safety net programmes

Qualitative scoring by EIU

Access to financing for farmers Qualitative scoring by EIU

The food affordability category measures the ability of consumers to purchase food and the relative costs they may face under both normal circumstances and food-related shocks.

The GFSI looks at Affordability through two primary lenses–whether an average individual has sufficient means to purchase food and the public structures that have established to respond to personal or societal shocks.

Index framework: Availability

The availability category assesses factors that influence the supply of food and the ease of access within a country.

Availability examines how structural elements determine a country’s capacity to produce and distribute food and explores aspects that might create bottlenecks or risks to sufficient availability.

Indicator Source Year

Sufficiency of supply* FAO; WFP; OECD 2006-12

Public expenditure on agricultural R&D EIU based on OECD, WB, ASTI Latest available year in 2001-13

Agricultural infrastructure** EIU; WB; qualitative scoring by EIU 2007-14

Volatility of agricultural production FAO; EIU calculations 1992-2011

Political stability risk EIU 2014

Corruption EIU 2014

Urban absorption capacity EIU; World Bank, World Development Indicators

2012-14

Food loss EIU: FAO 2009

*Composite indicator of average food supply and dependency on chronic food aid.

** Composite indicator of existence of adequate crop storage facilities, road infrastructure and port infrastructure.

Index framework: Quality & Safety

The Quality & Safety category assesses the variety and nutritional quality of average diets, as well as the safety of food.

This category moves beyond the focus of traditional welfare metrics, which are normally related to accessibility, to explore the overall quality of food supplies based on the understanding that food security requires access to nutritious food to meet dietary needs.

Indicator Source Year

Diet diversification FAO 2008-10

Nutritional standards* Qualitative scoring by EIU Latest available year in 1996-2014

Micronutrient availability** FAO 2005-07

Protein quality FAO; WHO; USDA Nutrient database; EIU calculation

2005-10

Food safety*** WHO; qualitative scoring by EIU Latest available in 2007-14

*Composite indicator of existence of national dietary guidelines, existence of national nutrition plan or strategy, and existence of regular nutrition monitoring and surveillance.

** Composite indicator of dietary availability of vitamin A, animal iron and vegetal iron.

***Composite indicator of existence of an agency to ensure health/safety of food, access to potable water and presence of a formal grocery sector.

Using the Index: Overview

GFSI is an evaluative tool for a range of stakeholders who seek to develop an evidence-based approach:

To determining a country’s and region’s strengths and weaknesses within the relevant context

To understand indicators that drive high and low scores in each categories with empirical backup

To identify policy steps that need to be undertaken

Specifically, the GFSI seeks to establish:

The factors affecting food security and the

relationship between them A common data set for a set of countries that

represent over 90% of global population

How countries can improve food systems to reduce food insecurity

Priority areas for each country (eg. trade

policy, infrastructure, agricultural R&D)

Using the Index: Identifying trends

Year-on-year trend analysis can be used to identify and understand dynamic factors of food security.

The GFSI provides year-on-year trends that show how countries have improved or declined overall and across each category and indicator.

Trends analysis highlights:

Areas of improvement

Policy successes and failures

Best practices for improving food security

Overall Score

GDP per Capita (PPP)

Workshop agenda

Workshop goals

This workshop is designed to:

Explore the functionalities provided in the Excel model

Provide examples that will teach how to use the GFSI on a global, regional, country and indicator basis

Teach the user how to identify results and key findings of the 2014 GFSI

Workshop materials

Each table has copies of the following materials:

The 2014 Excel model workbook, which is uploaded on the laptops

Table questions, which provide all of the questions that will guide you through the workshop

exercise

Workbook model instructions, which provide a visual explanation of the functionality of the

Excel model

A user guide that lays out the variety of ways the Excel model workbook can be utilised

Model overview: Functionality

The GFSI Excel model has four modules and two additional sections for data analysis:

Overview: displays the overall results from the index through a Map, Category Rankings and a Scatterplot

Series Explorer: provides the most in-depth view of the individual indicators in the index and their definitions with Summary, Series Rankings, Y-O-Y Changes and Regional Scores sub-tabs

Country Explorer: explore data on a country-

specific basis through Country Profile, Indicator Scores, Y-O-Y Changes, Score Table and Data Table sub-tabs

Country Comparison: allows the results of two countries to be compared and contains Summary, Indicator Scores and Food Price Inflation sub-tabs

Data: presents all raw data, normalised scores and data years in a tabular form for all countries, regions and income levels

Weights: shows the weights assigned to each indicator and category that are used to calculate scores and ranks in the GFSI

Contact information

Pat Thaker Regional Director, Middle East & North Africa Economist Intelligence Unit Email: PatThaker@eiu.com Joshua Grundleger Analyst, Custom Research, Americas Economist Intelligence Unit Email: JoshuaGrundleger@eiu.com

The 2014 GFSI can be found at:

http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com

Further information

The Economist Intelligence Unit will be available later today to answer any additional questions and provide access to the 2014 GFSI model and interactive tool Time: Today, June 18th between 1:00pm and 3:15pm

Location: This room

Additional materials, including the interactive tool, reports and presentation materials, are available online to be downloaded for free http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com